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There Goes The "Housing Recovery": Record Few Americans Think "Now Is A Good Time To Buy A Home"
When one thinks "recovery", some of the images envisioned include a healthy labor market (not one saturated by part-time, low wage jobs), rising earnings (not wages that have stagnated for years and in real terms are at Lehman levels) and a vibrant housing market in which new home buyers enter with confidence, and where mortgage loans are abundant and available to qualified creditors. One certainly does not imagine a housing "market" dominated by Chinese, Russian and Arab monely-laundering oligarchs, where half of all transactions are "all cash", and where, as Fannie Mae just reported, the number of Americans who said "now is a good time to buy a home" plunging to 64% - the lowest print in survey history!
But then again, aside from the handful of Americans the bulk of whose net worth is in financial assets, accessible right here and right now (and the balance who are deluded that their equity-invested retirement assets will be worth something in real terms in 20, or even 10 years), nobody really pretends any more there is a recovery.
As for the housing market: stick a fork in it.
From Fannie Mae:
Americans’ attitudes toward the housing market continued to soften in August and suggest that housing activity may resume its modest recovery in 2015 after some pullback this year, according to results from Fannie Mae’s August 2014 National Housing Survey. Despite ongoing improvements in the labor market this year, consumers’ view on their income trend during the past 12 months appears to be more bearish. In addition, the share of consumers who said now is a good time to buy a home dipped for the second consecutive month, falling six percentage points since June to 64 percent – tying the all-time survey low.
"The August National Housing Survey results lend support to our forecast that 2015 will likely not be a breakout year for housing," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "The deterioration in consumer attitudes about the current home buying environment reflects a shift away from record home purchase affordability without enough momentum in consumer personal financial sentiment to compensate for it. To date, this year’s labor market strength has not translated into sufficient income gains to inspire confidence among consumers to purchase a home, even in the current favorable interest rate environment. Our third quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey results, to be released later this month, are expected to show whether mortgage demand from the lender perspective is in line with consumer housing sentiment."
Highlights from the unpleasant (for the permabulls) survey:
Homeownership and Renting
- The average 12-month home price change expectation fell to 2.1 percent.
- he share of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months held steady at 42 percent. The share who say home prices will go down increased to 9.0 percent.
- The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months fell by four percentage points to 50 percent.
Those who say it is a good time to buy a house fell to 64 percent, matching the all-time low. Those who say it is a good time to sell also decreased—to 38 percent.- The average 12-month rental price change expectation rose to 4.1 percent.
- The percentage of respondents who expect home rental prices to go up in the next 12 months increased to 53 percent.
- The share of respondents who think it would be easy to get a home mortgage today increased by one percentage point.
- The share who say they would buy if they were going to move fell to 64 percent, while the share who would rent increased to 32 percent—the narrowest gap in over a year.
The Economy and Household Finances
- The share of respondents who say the economy is on the wrong track fell by three percentage points from last month to 56 percent.
- The percentage of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get better over the next 12 months increased to 44 percent.
- The share of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago dropped by five percentage points to 23 percent.
- The share of respondents who say their household expenses are significantly higher than they were 12 months ago remained at 36 percent.
And visually:
Source: Fannie Mae and Slideshow
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If you believe inflation will come, and if you can lock in a low fixed rate mortgage, then thanks to inflation it might be a good time to buy. Only reason to consider it though.
Yep. That and rents are high and we have to live somewhere.
Ah yes, the "Well I am spending money anyway, so I might as well buy" theory. So you put 20% down with money that has been saved since after paying back huge college loans that likely were not worth the money spent compared to the education received, pay a mortgage with interest every month for the next 30 years (lest you miss one payment and the bank can forclose), pump money into all the broken down aspects - pipes, electical, roof, septic, etc - and agree with a partner to build stupid shit like man caves and sky lights that really do nothing for resale value.
Owning a home is a huge liability. One that bankrupts many many people.
Yes, but many people are idiots and buy things they cannot afford. That's a pretty crucial difference between being smart about it and overshooting, which is what almost everyone did in the 2008 housing bubble.
The next "Housing Boom":
I can see cardboard cities covered with plastic garbage bags as insulation/weatherproofing, springing up all over this God-forsaken land.
Yes, the United States is a "God-forsaken" land. Charateristically reasonable take on the market. /s
Fannie Mae surveying Americans! I visualize my elderly parents in small town Midwest answering Fannie Mae's phone call on one of America's last remaining land-lines. Theyve been in their home 40 plus years. They don't know there's a 't' in mortgage. They think Fannie Mae sells chocolate truffles at the local mall - or did many years ago, but now the mall is a mostly vacant flea market. So Fannie Mae asks them which way they think home prices are going. They look at each other. I dunno hun, whatta you think? Oh, I dunno...
In a free-er marlet, goods and services are priced to what people can afford.
in a crony, asset protected market, things are by hook and crook priced by what politically connected cronies need, and use state power to force.
When I was a kid a 1/8th acre lot was modest. Now, illegal. Low cielings, now illegal. Modest but sanitary and functoning plumbing. Illegal now. Ditto wiring, insulation, roofing even drywall. Even good framing is illegal.
Everything must be, by order of state minions built to worst case scenario. Whither affordable or not.
Naturally the contractors ( me) like it, the town trough feeders like it as it raises costs and taxes, and the various finance the serf sheeples business like the compelled and nessasary finance.
Only the street bums are free.
Thus why there is another bubble, Dazman.
Home prices are in bubble territory in most areas again, so if you buy now, you are NOT being smart.
Why would anyone be buying a house right now? The only play is to buy stocks. Real stocks, fakes stocks, no PE multiple is too high. Apple is good but anything beginning with A is just as good. Tesla is good but anything with a T is just as good.
I know, right! Obviously the time to buy was in 09, 10 or 11... when the choice was most uncomfortable. Yeah, that's usually when it's time to buy anything as an investment. The sheeple never learn. The only thing holding up prices now is the greater fool theory, not true value vis a vis income levels.
Hot tip: ALBA
I think it is either Allibaba or Jessica Alba's diaper IPO. Regardless, its a win.
... and tax rates that can change at any time the municipality needs more of it. And real etate broker commissions if you move or just want out... yeah, there's a huge price for that too. 30 years on the hook every month is just insane!!!!!
Not exactly. 3.5% down, still paying the college loans.
Borrowing less than we are approved for and not really excited about the house at all. This is no dream house. But it is in a quiet neigborhood of a desireable city with excellent schools and from the calculator I plugged our numbers into as long as we keep it 3 years in a flat market it is pretty much a wash due to transaction costs. Past 3 years it starts looking up for buying vs. renting.
If we have to move sooner then it likely becomes a rental unless prices have jumped up enough for us to walk without taking cash to closing. If things go pancake shaped for us then at least with a house you have more time to make other plans as the eviction process is generally lengthier than with an apartment.
High rents are designed to spur, (force) home ownership, backed up by lower rates.
92 million people sitting on their asses is the only problem with a solution.
Don't forget, higher rates makes home ownership impossible, even if you happen to have a job. Unsecure as it is...
So, as long as 92+ million people sit on their ass in this country, (that will be 2 moar years), not one fucking thing will change...
Oh, 92+ million REALLY PISSED OFF people.
Change Bitchez!
Wages aren't increasing though, so even with inflation it is not a sound investment. And taxes will increase too, because the government needs funding.
Being a homeowner makes you a sitting duck for bankrupt governments...
....and their colluding banks.
colluding banks are the government
Fixed!
Banks, Mortgage Companies, Municipalities, Government, Home Depot, Real Estate Brokers, Pool Supply Companies,... ALL THINK THAT TODAY IS THE BEST DAY TO BUY A HOME. Why? Because you'll be paying them for it for the next 30 years and more!!!!
Don't play their games or believe their lies. They'll love you up until you sign the paperwork, then you're their VICTIM. Fight back.
What good is a low interest rate if you lose 20-40% of your home's value in the next crash?
Buying now to lock in a low interest rate only makes sense if you never intend to sell.
Furthermore, anyone who thinks interest rates will be going up any time soon needs to study this chart:
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2014/07/Japanese-yields.png
Also, inflation won't save the buyer either. No jobs means no payment. Inflation will shrink house prices since people have to buy higher priority necessities first. That old way of thinking only worked when the jobs were still here.
Interest rates are low, but credit is tight, inventory is low, and prices are up. No mystery here.
Only decent deals are for people able to pay cash and bid on foreclosures as the banks seem to be releasing more inventory into the market trying to take advantage of the upswing in prices.
"Only decent deals are for people able to pay cash and bid on foreclosures"
hedge funds and private equity figured this out in 2010.
Next
Yep, and they'll be the first to start dumping those investment... if they haven't started already.
Speaking from first hand knowledge the local Gov'ts are threating and some have already started to seize the homes or deam them un-inhabitable and bull dozed them. They have sat on the forclosed homes and not maintained them to the point they are falling apart and the local residents are pissed so the local politicians are acting. The local politicians do not get donations from banks so they don't care. But they do want to look like they are doing something for thier voters so to put it bluntly. The message to the Banks is "shit or get off the pot" Auction off the house or we will demo it or sieze it.
You should try Rochester NY. Empty houses everywhere - good neighborhoods, bad ones, in between ones. Banks have had a heck of a time dealing with our court system and foreclosures. Supreme Court calendar in Monroe County (Rochester) has a three-year backlog with more on the way. I am sure our neighbors in Syracuse and Buffalo are in similar straits, plus, the foreclosures are beginning to turn up in rural areas of upstate NY as well. Lots and lots of deals to be had, if you have cash, connections, or financing.
Seriously, 3 BR houses in the suburb of Greece (not bad) for under $100,000, many under $80,000. Same in Irondequoit. In the city - in which most of the neighborhoods are not-so-good, prices are smashingly low. SFHs for $20,000 - 50,000, some in decent neighborhoods. Good rentals.
Problem is that upstate NY isn't producing many new jobs. In fact, the population of the three largest cities has been in decline since the 1970s and it's not getting any better. Huge swaths of land in the city proper, ready for development. 46,000 properties in the city of Rochester have three years or more of unpaid back taxes, most with tax liens sold to vulture firms like American Tax Funding (ATF - ha, ha) and they won't foreclose because they don't want the houses. Something's going to go bust, and I'm personally hoping it's the city budget, which includes an absurd school tax where we graduate 42% of high school students. Something tells me the city should be paying us to live there instead of the other way around.
Still, this market is getting ripe for plucking. Any significant downturn will cause blood in the streets (literally and figuratively) and a Detroit-like collapse. Buffalo already went under. Rochester and Syracuse are next.
These are just polls of average Americans. In reality, things are much worse than most Americans realize.
Good thing Congress is here to make banks give people loans even when they have little income and no credit.
Thanks Barney Frank!!!!!
Philly Housing Index made their recovery - about 62% from the all time high - IN 2006!!!
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-monthly-bounces-sh...
Injecting all this cash has helped how?
Stawks and houses are the two most overpriced asets right now. If one follows the old maxim,"buy low sell high" these people are correct. Now is NOT a good time to buy a house.
Locking into a house for Yutes is a bad idea in general since they must stay uber-flexible in this economy where job security is zilch and they may have to move quickly across country or even overseas for a decent job. Add in the staggering costs of home ownership and it's a "No Go."
Im trying to sell my house the highest price possible to move in a SMALLER house and had to thumb you down for that one :-)
Try this on for size--of those that had a job and lost it sometime from 2008 on, they're probably working with 50% of what they made before. Why, in God's name, would you even consider losing a home again in foreclosure? Who, out there, can provide a valid title that hasn't been MERS'd and rendered totally without shit proof of ownership?
Well the MERS "situation" has allowed me to stay for three years with no payment. Thank you greedy banksters for fouling up the "ownership" trail to my advantage.
Don't believe this is a real mess? Check out what you REALLY get with title insurance these days especially if you bought a house out of foreclosure, no matter where you are in line. You get squat as the former homeowner, who was foreclosed on (mostly illegally) can come back and get the home! It has happened and will happen more often...
I'm glad you were successful. Unfortunately I was not. All the lawyers with whom I talked were less knowledgeable than me about MERS which was scary but that was in 2008. Most judges are political hacks so they haven't a clue about how MERS fucked up 500 years of real estate law. Be that as it may I won't buy again at my age.
In Long Island NY, the Judges have come around. Now if a home owner decides to fight to stay in the house and not put thier head in the sand and gets competant legal coucil they will in most 2002-2008 mortage cases win. The banks cannot produce a chain of title. This is especially the case if you started with one lender then shortly afterward got sold to Country Wide then sold to someone else. If it touched Country Wide you most likely have a home run.
froze25, thanks for the insight. I know Judge Shack (sp?) and a few others have been tough on the banks, and, NY law is la creme de la creme when it comes to contracts. Lots of case law to fight foreclosures and MERS in NY. I'm in five years with a home I inherited from my father and still living the good life. Yeah, it was CUNTrywide originated, now BofA is the "servicer" and they foreclosed (March 2010) and haven't done squat since.
Every now and then, they'll come sniffing around looking for cash, or a loan modification (recently did this with the third set of lawyers) or trying to scare me or some other BS. I don't budge. Sued for fraud in June 2013 just to beat the SOL, and am sitting on that, too.
They know, if they make a move in the foreclosure proceeding, my fraud case gets moved forward to discovery, which means two-three more years of litigation. Deal, anyone? When the SHTF in the next downturn (I'm hoping for late 2015, early 2016), I'll be ready to deal, like, "yeah, sign the quit-claim deed right here, assholes."
Why would ANYONE think investing in ANYTHING for the long term would be a good idea right now? We run this whole damned country one quarter at a time on borrowed and counterfeit money.
Go ahead, YOU go make a 20-30 year commitment to a high ticket item right now. Go on, you go first. I'm not doing jack shit that doesn't start paying me back within a couple months or that I couldn't quickly walk away from.
Indeed.
Cash, Bonds, Gold...
One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong. Can you tell which thing is not like the others? By the time I finish this song.
They are all different. Cash=paper. Bonds=digits in a computer. Gold=purified metal. So what?
Let's see, paper, digits, and a purified metal....
Free Angelo Mozilo!
Angelo Mozilo for Housing Secretary (Friends of Angelo) and replace Jack Lew with Jon Corzine.
Change the currency from "In God We Trust" to "in Criminals We Trust".
Yes, YES WE CAN!!!
Even if you buy a house and manage to pay it off, someone will come along and steal it from you, either your bank through a fraudulant forclosure, or your local city judge and his crony crew through some bogus violation or increased rate of property tax.
Future generations somewhere along the lines will no longer be obligated to pay taxes on property, because just think of the idiocy of the idea that you should be taxed on something that you supposadly "own".
"Thats a nice car you have right there, give me 1% of its value every year or ill take it"
"Thats a nice house you have right there, give me 1% of its value every year or. . . ill take it"
"Thats a nice job you have, give me 49% of your pay check every week or ill throw you in jail and make you work for me for free"
"Thats a nice boat you have, give me 1% of your boats value or ill take it"
"Thats a nice stack of gold coins you have, im taking it"
"Thats a nice wife you have , im gona feel her up, and if you do anything about it I will taze you and report you as a terrorist"
How long before govt/bank thugs are raping your family in your own house? is that where people finally draw the line? or will they sit there comatose while thats happening also?
Thats the government/banking system we live under today, its barbaric and criminal and relies completely on extortion and threat of harm to operate.
In either case, having a mortgage right now is the same thing as renting a house for 30 years, so. . . why not just rent a house for 30 years and then move somewhere cheaper anyway?
Thats the government/banking system we live under today, its barbaric and criminal and relies completely on extortion and threat of harm to operate.
And they thought Caligula was a prick.
Your rent includes all the cost you list above as well. Over 30 years the majority of homes have gone up in price many times over. As long as you can make the payments and plan to stay in one area for the duration, home buying is a no brainer.
Just hope that your neighbors and hood doesn't change for the worse. Or you don't have to move for a job.
Been there done that. TH I bought in 2003 was in a hood that the illegals decided they would take over and move their families and friends to during the boom. When the bust of 2008 hit in earnest they all foreclosed and left and the section 8 blacks quickly came in and took over as renters from all the bank owned foreclosures. Took me 5 years to break even from that shit and sell so I could move my family out of that shit. The NoVa area is a fucking cesspool now that I am trying desperately to wash my hands of. The jobs are here though so what's a man to do...
Perhaps, but again, you're suggesting one can stay in the same house for 30 years. Come on man!!! Who does or can do that anymore???? Certainly not the generations that are under 50 years old. You're living in the past. Additionally, this is a DIFFERENT Amerika these days - huge debt, angry special interest and ethnic groups, no wage growth, high "real" unemployment (and not getting any better), tax dollars to fight uselss wars and to send illegal immigrants to hospitals to undergo sex change operations,... Have you ever gone back to the neighborhood you lived in 30 or 40 years ago??? I'm sure some are just as nice, but most these days are ghettos, and getting worse.
Certainly not the most stable of conditions for one to consider living in the same "hood" for the next 30 years. Oh, hell no!!!!
You aren't accounting for the credit cycle based mostly on the baby boom demographic. This shrinkage is why DC wants to bring in all the illegals. Their job is to play the bigger fool. Credit cycles don't go straight up forever.
"Thats a nice car you have right there, give me 1% of its value every year or ill take it"
Because you don't own the title, just the certificate of title... Your home state owns the title..
"Thats a nice house you have right there, give me 1% of its value every year or. . . ill take it"
Because on your deed, beside your name say's "tenant"..NOT "owner"... So you are purchasing the right to rent the property... The deed is owned by the PRIVATE Fed.. Been owned by them since the USSA went backrupt in the 1930's..
About 85,000 people in this area. Been here over a year and so far have yet to see more than 2 houses available for rent at any given time in our price range. And they have all been less nice than our apartment complex with the bonus of being responsible for your own snow removal and yardwork.
OTOH the apartment has no yard, so not much gardening for me. They charge a monthly pet rent plus a non-refundable deposit. And our upstairs neighbor wakes us up around 5 AM near every damn day.
Housing bubble #2 will continue until it runs out of people with a pulse. We should be close. The jobs are being continously off-shored. The Fed can't print those.
No, the FED will by the houses and rent them back to us! Forward Comrade.
Boo-hoo for the banksters!
The "economy" is what, exactly? Moribund? Lazy? Not enough jobs to go around? Too many high skilled workers? Companies went overseas? NAFTA?
Well, it ALL starts with cooking the books. What happened to the big eight accounting firms? They are dead or "re-evolved" into new, shiny, improved cheating houses of cards. Yep.
Accountants fuck everything up. An example..."why are we paying the sales people so much? We could cut their pay and save a bundle"! So they do, and what happens? Oh yeah, sales turn to shit. Bottom line looked great for about one minute. Non-GAAP to the rescue. Let's count our liabilities as....Assets! Yeah, baby, no one will know until we are long gone...
Fuck the banksters
Round these fuckers up, 100 guillotines running 24/7
Pike em' and let the birds pick them clean.
Come on, there's a greater fool out there. My realtor told me so.
What the hell? I just saw a Tee Vee commercial this morning that says there has NEVER been a better time to buy a house.
The rent is too damned high!
It may be better long term to be evicted from an apartment than it is to claim bankruptcy?
Just move into a shittier apartment next time, with good credit.
Did they include the responses from CNBC "Talent"? Well then get with the fucking program and fix this garbage.
Stay on point with the "everything is fine" message please!
First time buyers aren't being suckered in?
No one will buy until rates start to go up?
Not on the expectation?
American's getting smarter?
More Fluoride in the tap water, damn it!!!
If this doesn't tell the story.... Around here, prices for "starter" homes have not climbed in price AT ALL in the past few years. Yet prices for homes in the 250k and up range have climed 20 or 30%. Something has to give, as there are fewer and fewer initial buyers to be suckered into starter homes homes to allow for the move up. And even though I can afford a much more expensive home, even pay cash for it, I'll never do it again! I'll find the nice 200k house and feel comfortable knowing if housing corrects 20%, it's only $40k in real dollars... not hundreds of thousands.
Property tax (a.k.a government rent) on my modest house has gone from 5k/yr to 8k/yr since I bought. Anyone think the market price of the house has gone up 60% as well?
You're putting little Juan from El Salvador through K-12.
Thank both Parties for the increase.
Have to train little Juan to cut your throat.
And the Chinese are still laughing at us.
Yep, not really sure what home ownership means.
My folks were paying $700/month in PITI when they first bought their house.
After the mortgage was paid off, they were paying $1,000/month in TI.
Funding government pensions is a bitch.
If you don't work for the government or you have no kids in K-12, what are you getting?
And in the eyes of this government, Lil Juanito is just as much an AMERICAN as you are... however, YOU have the ability to fund shit, so...
Real question is, what does it mean to be American anymore? Just cross the river and you're now American? I'm really starting to hate this place!!!
What is the diffrence of a "American National" and an "American Citizen"?
duplicate
What's the time frame on that?
All recovery is fake!! Now is a good time to buy Gold or trade it!
No shit Sherlock has posted.
Should I subscribe to your gold newsletter? Send you $200 bucks for your no-brainer profit scheme?
Only a clear majority of Americans think now is a good time to buy.
It's always a good time to buy whatever it is that they're selling. A majority of smart Americans always recognize this.
If I don't get my iPhone 6 soon, I'm gonna pop.
Buy on the expectation.
Get in early.
Inventory is low.
Buy now.
Rates will never be this low again.
Trust me.
hehehehehe .................
Gotta love the whole "RATE" scare tactic! Even if rates were in the 5 or 6 range, historically that's low. And Yes the housing market was doing just fine when rates were at that level and higher. Why??? Well because our economy was much better, incomes were rising, prices were lower...
So recognize low rates for what they truly are: The result of a shitty economic environment that the government/Fed fears.
Exactly. Rates are still too high. Anything lower would show just how un-payable the mountain of debt really is. They(bankers) want, desperately, to bring new people into the Ponzi. That's been their escape valve for decades.
It is in my town. For realz.
Stick a fork in housing? Because 64% think it's a good time to buy? Ho-Kay, whatever.
I'm thinking more than 64% experienced some form of pain vis a vis their real estate holdings during the 08-11 time frame, so what do THEY know????
It's probably the same 64% that think it's a good time to BTFATH.
rent and remain mobile
Agree. The globalist job market have turned people into nomads. Be mobile so you can go where there is opportunity.
The "ownership society" is and will continue to turn into the "rentership society". Young people are now looking at homes like cars, and for many leasing is better than owning. Nobody can get away from rising property taxes, no free lunch for tenants or owners. As taxes go up, property values will go down, when interest rates go up, property values will go down, and as the cost of essentials goes up, property values will go down. Most people don't get it, that the home you live in is typically not a good investment, especially with a 30 year mortgage. Back in the 50's and 60's people bought modest homes with 25%+ down and a 15-20 year mortgage, and they knew enough to prepay on those mortgages, not today. Our parents would ask "can I afford to buy this?" and kids today ask "can I afford the payment on this?". The post-WW2 dividend is now long gone, globalization is really starting to roll, and global wealth redistribution is becoming more apparent and unstoppable. The USA as it exists today is done for. Kudos to the central planners for being able to kick the can for this long. When the music stops, over half the country will not have a chair.
hmm, taxes and especially property tax and cost of goods arent a good correlation to home prices, though i agree interest rates are the major achilles heel of any housing market. if rising taxes and cost of goods where all that mattered, new york california,london and much of europe would be significant cheaper. Infact, home prices can go up with taxes,interest rates and cost of goods are increasing all due to inflation (devalution). The problem we have in america are low employment prospects(people arent being trained fast enough) coupled with high debt and high necessary expenses. In europe you can get unlimited cell service for $20 a month, with super high speed internet for $15 a month bundled with tv thats maybe an additional $10 to $15. in short its all about wages, american wages have not kept up with inflation, otherwise the average income in america would be 70k to 80k a month not 35k.
Even with ownership you really never own. You lease it from the county in the form of real estate taxes.
Stop paying those real estate taxes and see how fast they sell your property through a tax auction.
True. But as long as you own, your "rent" is a payment on a future capital liquidity event, and very likely an appreciating one.
Renting is just paying someone else's mortgage. And property taxes.
Buy as soon as you can afford and as much as you can afford and plan to hold for 20 years. You will be fine.
There's a sweet spot in housing. Entry levels don't appreciate too well. Neither do expensive houses(I call 'social climber specials', aka McMansions). The lower mid-levels do the best. These are the ones that entry level buyers move up to when the kids need separate bath & bedrooms. Somewhere around 3+beds X 2+ baths. Even that will be hurt by the baby boom 'bust', unless the kids move back home.
When you pay rent you are paying the taxes for the landlord. Stop paying rent. See how fast your butt gets thrown to the curb.
If you have to pay rent and it is cheaper to buy than to rent then buy.
So what. A record number of billionaires and oligarchs think now is a terrible time to be in the equities market. Yet it keeps going up.
As long as 36% of people (and, more importantly, buyers) think now is a fine time to buy a house, prices will keep escalating--especially in supply constrained areas such as where I live.
Both housing and stocks are either in a sustainable upward price trend, or entering a blow-off top melt-up. In either case, selling now is the risk play.
Actually, you just made the best case for selling now and don't even know it.
We just need sub-sub-subprime mortages and everything will be fine....
Housing will recover when prices get real. As long as they are being artificially propped-up, buyers will stay away. Interest rates are meaningless in a market where people know the prices are fake.
If the PTB want a market with elevated prices for assets, then they have to raise wages until the balance is restored.
But they don't want to do that. They want the benefits of the higher asset prices, but they don't want to pay the price. And the longer they wait, the worse the potential market becomes. There is a small window where home ownership is a real desire...that is usually when you are younger, and a 30 year commitment doesn't seem like forever. After say, 40 or so, people have already made the adjustments to their wish-lists, and start looking at real estate more realistically.
So go ahead, keep driving those home-forming younger folks out of the market with your fake prices. They won't sell, and those owning them will eventually have to face facts, or stay stuck where they are as their homes lose value.
There are a lot more homes that will need selling in the next few decades than there will be buyers, and that is NOT some short-term trend.
I didn't believe the market had done anything but bounced back a little bit from the perceived very most bottom of itself. There are pockets of very high end prices in London that we all heard about. But, I don't believe in any kind of strength in anything in the US unrelated to usery, fraud, murder, dope, porn, etc.
I did think that houses would continue selling in quantities related to the economy's overall condition, ie, housing isn't going anywhere. I don't think anything else is going anywhere either. The US hasn't done anything right for about 15 years now, so its pointless to bet on anything except crime...