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"Why This Stock Market Will Never Go Down"
Update: turns out it was satire. Supposedly:
@zerohedge My column, "This is a Market that Will Never Go Down," was satire. Read the entire column and you'd see that at the end.
— Michael Sincere (@michaelsincere) September 9, 2014
While the last thing we would like to do is bring even more attention to today's grand slam in financial trollery, the following article by the ironically-named MarketWatch author Michael Sincere is just too funny to pass by.
Presenting: "Why this stock market will never go down" which contains such stunning pearls of financial insight as the following:
Everyone believes the U.S. stock market has reached a permanently high plateau. Everyone, that is, but the bears.
Last week’s Investors Intelligence survey showed bearish sentiment at its lowest since 1987 (13.3%). In fact, short-sellers have nearly disappeared along with the few remaining bears. In addition, the VIX is at historic lows (near 12), which reflects investor complacency.
Put another way, almost no one believes this market will go down.
Wait, "permanently high plateau"? When was the last time we heard that line. Oh wait, nevermind.
That said, the author does point out the clear inherent falacy in his premise, namely that there no longer is any retail participation in a market which everyone realizes is too rigged, too manipulated and too broken to hope to even break even:
Ironically, retail investors are not as gung-ho about the market as in the past. Viewership of financial television programs is at 20-year lows, especially in the coveted 25-to-54 age group. It’s a sign that even as the market climbs higher, interest in the stock market is falling along with volatility.
So who benefits: why Wall Street of course - the same source which eagerly passes one hot potato to itself after another, in the process CYNKing the S&P to higher records on ever declining volume.
On the other hand, the overwhelming view of Wall Street can be summarized by two Morgan Stanley analysts, who predicted that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.40% will be at 3,000 in five years, a 50% increase. If they’re right, the Dow will hit 25,000 lickety-split. Dow 25,000 has a nice ring to it, and to Morgan Stanley and others on Wall Street, an additional 50% gain is actually a conservative estimate. This is a market that is unstoppable. If only they can convince Ma and Pa, the market would go even higher.
Then the author for some inexplicable reason decides to troll "bears" by "exposing" two "conspiracy theories." Actually, in retrospect the click-bait reason is quite explicable.
While the bulls are laughing, the bears are sulking. No one believes their Chicken Little doom-and-gloom warnings. A 10% correction? Wrong! A 20% crash? Wrong! Last month, after the Dow fell more than 600 points, the bears thought they had a chance, but they were mistaken. If you believed the bad news bears, you would have missed out on a 200% gain since 2009.
The market has shrugged off multiple geopolitical problems, low market volume, trillions of dollars of debt, sky-high sentiment, extreme P/E ratios for many high-flying stocks, and dozens of other red flags. Yawn. The only gorilla in the room that matters is the Fed.
And because bears are sore losers, they have come up with wild conspiracy theories to explain why they have been so wrong:
Conspiracy theory #1 — Plunge protection: Market observers have noticed a pattern that has been repeated for months. As soon as the market begins to sell off (usually in the morning), a massive computer algorithm enters with buy orders, preventing the market from falling. On the chart, it makes a “V” pattern. Conspiracy theorists believe the Fed is doing the buying, but they have no proof. We know that the Fed buys bonds, but buying stocks would go way beyond their mandate. Conspiracy theorists believe the Fed is terrified of letting the market fall because it could turn into a massive crash.
Conspiracy theory #2 — Ignore inflation: The bears believe this is a faux bull market that has turned into the biggest bubble in stock market history. They believe the Fed and other central banks around the world will keep interest rates low indefinitely by ignoring inflation. I have bad news for the bears: You’re right: The Fed will do everything in its power to keep interest rates low. As soon as the Fed seems serious about raising interest rates (that’ll be the day), the stock market might hiccup. But why would the Fed raise interest rates and crash the party?
Why indeed... Oh, maybe because as we showed yesterday excess liquidity in the market has never been higher and the central banks, the Fed included, know that once the Kool-Aid spice ends, nobody knows just how far the market will crash. So instead they do the only thing they can - push it to ever bubblier levels.
It is not until the end that one senses of hint of sarcasm:
If you study history, you know that no one thought the price of tulips, houses, or stocks would ever go down. Even most bulls believe that “one day” there will be a correction, but that day is far away. After all, the Fed has an unlimited supply of magical tools, and they are determined to keep the market from falling.
But said "sarcasm" promptly evaporates when one reads the final sentence, and realizes that the author was serious all along.
Unfortunately for soul-searching bears, the Fed trumps all. As long as new money flows into stocks, interest rates are low, and the market keeps going up, why worry?
As we said: pure trolling comedy. As to why worry... well "long-term" trader memories may be 6 years or less, but the last time everyone put their faith in the Fed, the market plunged some 60%.
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Mania phase has started?
Get your tulip bulbs while you can, they're not making any more.
Because its denominator is going to zero?
Regards,
Cooter
Repeat 100 times after me: This time it´s different, this time ...
Thats the most 'Sincere' stock market advice directed at the sheeps that I have ever seen. Fuckin retard columnist
The foo forgot to mention that we can still lose when our purchasing power tanks when the USD drops like a rock.
its rigged to never go down by the masters that run the Fed!
The IRS is waiting at the exit door of this market.
Darth Vader: I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it any further.
You didn't build those gains.
Even sideways would be a big fail for the Fed.....enjoy it folks
[Anticipating Dupe]
Dance like a maniac high on cocaine at the jam-packed baseless fiat discotheque.
Just remember the Fed has bribed the fire marshal of "rational markets" and the blatant fire code violations are being ignored.
"permanently high plateau" is a psyche out for a crash that will not come on until the zombies of zimbabwe come out.
This time IS different.
Some say things dont "end" they just "change"...it's a nice thought
This market will go up until retail joins in. If you won't take the bait @ 17K, then how about 18K?
Sooner or later retail is in, then, WHOMP, 2 BY 4 UPSIDE THE HEAD.
WHOMP!!!!!!!
One can be "Sincere" when they rob the muppets. Is this their new spokesman?
Hmm, let's examine ze cluez...
"Even God himself couldn't sink her..."
[Hubris much?]
"The Beatles are bigger than Jesus Christ"
[Hubris² with schadenfreude... "Instant Karma'a gonna get you, gonna knock you off your feet"]
MarketWatch? OMG! That's sinking lower than whale shit on the bottom of the ocean!
I read somewhere, in more than one location, thatthere are CIA/NSA people openly talking about the possibility of an ISIS EMP attack, or an attack on the US ageing power infrastructure (read false flag). What effect would that have on this guys 'stawks' ?
Brad Thor's latest fiction book is on that possiblity. Good reading. Although it is the Chinese behind that fictional attack.
OT but related.
If you purchased Fine Platinum Physical, or Palladium, you may be elligible for a CASH CLAIM for the Manipulation as a party to a Class Action..
http://platinumpalladiumphysicallitigation.com/
Nahhhh...Markets are not manipulated. BTFATH. Right.
I think you touch on the real objective here. See Rockefeller and Morgans circa end of the roaring twenties. They pushed the manic market by flooding with liquidity and then called in all the demand loans at once. This allowed them to collect assets at $.10 on the $1.00. This time is no different. The banks, and the families behind them understand money is not made by pushing markets up at all time highs. It is made on the way down and by collecting assets for pennies on the dollar when the knife hits the floor. So understand pushing the market higher is just the necessary set up to making real profits upon the collapse.
This time it IS different. Obviously. Well that is except for the result of course.
I think it may be different. The Fed is the biggest homeowner in the country, holding $1.3 trillion in MBS'. An what did that cost them? Nothing. They printed the money at no cost.
They can do the same with stocks. Print, buy, and even if stocks tank, they lose nothing since they used money that cost nothing. Just like if you prnted fake money in your basement. So they can print, buy the entire market and only win. And they are.
For money that cost them nothing they could own trillions in equities. And never care if they tank, which they won't since they'll just print more to support their holdings. The perfect crime.
And you thought Obama phones were bad for democracy --Wait for Obama housing delivered to the poor.
When 20 million houses are free to use -- the rest of the housing market will drop in value like a rock and be picked up by the banks. That means what little wealth that is left in private hands will be transferred and the theft will be complete. And the Dems will be in forever...
Exactly, Bob. I've said that all along here too. We can't audit the Fed, so we have no idea how much money they really have created out of thin air. They can make infinite amounts in mere seconds with the stroke of a few keys on a keyboard. They don't even have to waste paper or ink anymore. We have no idea what their balance sheet really is. Anyone think they are telling us the truth? I didn't think so.
I found this and have to laugh about how accurate it might be. It was first posted a year ago.....
http://www.larryobrien.net/my-worst-fear/
The Fed can print money and buy stocks and keep doing it until they own 51% shares in every publicly traded company in the world They would then control the whole world's economy. These fools who follow the myth of the Fed's omnipotence have to deal with this logical extention of what they believe. It won't happen. It will end.
The Fed is the biggest homeowner in the country, holding $1.3 trillion in MBS'.
You really think those securities are worth $1.3T?
CORRECTION:
The stock market never goes down!
it is logical really everything goes only up ...until you reach intercourse and climax pennsylvania
So if bearish sentiment is lowest since 1987 that means everyone is on the same side of the boat. Here's to wishing for the fucking thing to tip over already.
it will tip over only when they say so, not even one minute sooner ... it is a fixed casino
the "black swan" event to tip over this corrupt market is another false flag here in the US
maybe this Thursday on 9/11?
Amen Doc, bring it on! We have spent the last several weeks bugging out of the big city, and couldn't be happier about the decision. We have a good stash of supplies and will continue to prep until the wheels fall off. Most importantly, we have all we need to grow a huge garden next summer when we will all be farming for keeps.
Yeap. This is the point where the addict is making bank and doesn't see an issue with having a morning cocktail of coke and vodka and losing 20 lbs in the last month. Looks good and feels good so why worry?
Driving through a fog at 80 miles per hour just waiting for a brick wall.
The stock market never goes down, everything else goes up.
/s
Without any shorts in the market, there is no short covering to slow the decline when it corrects
and no bid to allow you to get out or cover margin calls. Recipe for disaster. I guess theoretically
The Fed could buy the whole stock market and could set stock prices wherever they want.
@NidStyles
Mania phase is right. I sold out of stocks too early because I though this-time-would-be-different in that I thought there would be no mania phase. I thought the FED couldn't necromance the economy back to life. Anyways, the FED suceeded at pumping up another huge bubble. I will buy back into the stock market after the crash- hopefully at a point lower than where I sold.
I hope you have enough TP for the wait.
Topping the news today the S&p topped 3000 on heavy trading of 1000 shares. Also in the news the government is promising to take Indiana and Kentucky from the rebels any day now and swears that there is no way they'll lose West Virginia. Finally don't forget to catch the new season of Survivor:Chicago where the contestants present their recipes for roasted rat.
The stock market can go down?
LOL!!!
Going to go get my shoes shined today and see if the guy has any cool stock tips.
This is like groundhog day!
pods
Pods, you witty bastard.
take a notepad with you... the guy's english might not be that good though
Perhaps only one thing will tank this market - a damn nuclear war.
Israel can arrange that!
Sure, not Russia, not Ukraine, not European countries as they put pressue on Russia, not North Korea, not China as it plays games with Japan, certainely not the US with all its bases and subs. Only Israel. Cute.
Fuck this guy.
Maybe Barry will if he visit's the White House.
To the moon Bitchez ....
Ah ha ha ha, ah ha ha ha...
Oh, wait, you're serious???
Ah ha ha ha, ah ha ha ha...
I can't believe ZH disagrees with this kid. With all knowledge of Central Bank activities laid bare each day, how is he wrong? Which "Tyler" wrote this "expose"?
I'm not very impressed with ZH's take on the $29 trillion
There is no short/put demand because they know the market is rigged.
Rigged to go up until it's rigged to go down.
The commercials would tend to disagree with you.
Until the retail investor gets super excited, we haven't topped. Moar printing!
Retail investors? A species that died out about 6 years ago?
"Retail Investor" left the building and is not coming back.... The rigged Market is old news to all but those rigging it. The Machine has all but gauranteed higher stock prices, come on in and buy the fraud.
There are no retail investors any more; only a few super PACs, using algos to bid up each others stock, and using money they get on the cheap from the FED. That way it looks like they are "growing" their wealth.
What's the difference between growing and inflation? I dunno...
However, as a bubble grows, the wall thins until pressure from within is so great it overcomes surface tension. Or until someone with a pin comes along.
Enjoy!
Craig
Cant believe the guy actually said that....surely he would have known the spectacularly failed comment of Sept. 5, 1929......
EDIT: Yeh , he had to have been joking writing that line...
Watching these guys lose their shirts may indeed be inevitable in the long run. Kind of like the high school jock who peaked in high school and then later in life has all of his hair fall out, ends up living in the ghetto, and now cleans septic tanks for a living (not that there is anything wrong with that). One can dream, no?
Michael Sincere, I award you the "King of Mental Masturbation" award.
Great article. Very tongue in cheek. The term "permanently high plateau" is what gives it away. People always use that term when they're being sarcastic about markets never going down. People who don't know history miss it completely, but people who know the term get the joke.
Fuck the rigged shyster market.
Fuck MarketFarce...
bitch made propagandist cocksucker mother fuckers...
I read the comments of that article and the author responded to a poster saying he was being sarcastic.
Look at all these falling knives.....must have killed a lot people...
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/prognost.html
Buying stocks between 1929 and 1932 hazardous to your health...
This is not good news for The Bear
"No one believes this market won't go down, so it won't go down" is a logical fallacy in so many ways.
Confermation bias, assuming the conclusion, (circular reasoning), correlation proves causation, base rate fallacy, appeal to probability, ad hom ("conspiracy theories"), begging the question, kettle logic, and many more.
It is quite a statement to make, that all Wall Street must do is never hit the sell button, because there will be a point someone wants to sell stocks and buy something else.
LCD, here I come...
Because Yellen is sprinkling it with pixie dust before this Fall's harvest.
Old Normal: I am mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore.
New Normal: USA! USA! USA!
Never say Never
all systems GO ... for now
due to stock buybacks and record high corporate profits
BOTH on the clock
Mr Sincere will need to change to Mr Insincere
Shite like this is EXACTLY WHY IT WILL GO DOWN!
Very good article with the last sentence deserving a follow-on. Specifically, in response to:
"but the last time everyone put their faith in the Fed, the market plunged some 60%."
But, but, but----the ONE CRUCIAL part that I think is missing here is that this time it is "different". The Federal Reserve's controllers----the evil globalists that manipulate the world to advance their sociopathic self-interests use the market to enrich their followers/supporters and punish those who know what they are up to. By bankrupting those who are opposed to the "one world" where the serfs wear all-white clothes, have chips that tell them everything, and cannot move without the controllers permission etc., they can reach their sociopathic "Elysium" much sooner.
The bottom line is like so many other battles in history, this battle has nothing to do with money, but rather, control of the masses by the psychopaths and sociopaths who believe they have been anointed by the universe to be "God"---and they shall. In the end, the market is just a way for the elites to get everyone to slave for them---they reward those who help them "progress" towards their total "hell on earth" goals, while punishing those smart enough to see right through their hellish, evil plans.
And so it is---we are a f#cked, and they will not allow any dignity in the process, you can be sure of that. The globalists have demonstrated that they will destroy anyone that gets in their way, and they have a multitude of tools to accomplish that---the market is just one of many tools they can use to enslave and control us.
FWIW!
It’s been coming for centuries. The end battle: the people versus the banks.
And the ruthlessness of the world oligarchy has destroyed economies, countries, jobs, savers, homeowners, and what’s worse, supported wars of aggression and, at bottom, threatened to sink the most significant economic miracle ever created – the United States. The Fed is systemically destroying all the nation’s economic foundations.
They have to be stopped; they will be stopped. The market will go down because it must if Western Civilization is to survive.
The Fed
Hehehe, Ah the American sense of humor!
Sarcasm guys, lighten up.
Never use never and always.
everybody get ready for the v shaped rally off the lows going into the close of London - AGAIN.
good call. They have been nibbling every low all morning.
Primary dealers, specifically their trading arms most certainly do buy stocks. What a tool.
We should be close to the end game. Daily upgrades of the bubble stocks from the investment banks.
Fed unlikely next week to indicate more QE I would think. If they don't cool the market it will blow up and everyone knows it. It can only go so high.
We well might be
Look at yesterdays July Credit report
+$26.0 billion .... consensus +$17.3 billion
revolving (credit card) took a big jump from $1.8 billion to $5.4 billion
Shows "confidence" in economy, right?
Well, July retail sales were 0.0% (expected +0.2%)
Suggests the masses are broke and putting essentials on the credit card
Have to wait for next retail report (and revisions) to see if the trend continues.
You can’t climb the pathway to the stars on paper money.
You have to love how complacent everyone is when they are making money in a bull mkt. Even if it's a fake mkt brought to you by the fed. It is really interesting how people blissfully accept false realities until it hurts them.
So that's a reason why some might not feel so bad when a lot of people lose a lot of money when crashes do happen. Some professional managers will have a huge smile on their face as the gains "Joe blow ride the fake bull buy the ATH because I'm a genius" gets all his profits over the last few years taken away from him in a few days.
I don't understand why ZHedge is jumping on this guy. His thesis sounds exactly the same as what I hear trumpeted on here every day. The market is broken. There is no diversity of opinon. The Fed is guiding the market higher. He is clearly throwing in some sarcasm, and it was wrong to highlight his line about a permanently high plateau. That was supposed to be your indicator that this is snark but you somehow missed it.
Hell, the German market went to 23 million or so in 1923
Hyperinflation - The Bull Case.
And there it is.
MSM strikes again - do the opposite
The market can reach escape velocity if sentiment changes on the USD and inflation expectations accelerate (perhaps one reason why .gov has changed the calculation - to remove the expectation of rising inflation that leads to hyper-inflation). Just look at Zimbabwe - the stock market didn't crash there, it kept going up and up.
What he is missing is that asset bubbles caused by free money/no cost credit lead to financial and human capital misallocation in the real economy. Eventually, this leads to the popping of the bubble.
"Oh, we had no idea the stock market gains were flowing through into earnings for banks and corporate VC portfolios and overstating earnings"
"Oh, we didn't realize that low interest, low down loans would lead to trouble"
"Oh, we didn't know that zero rates for 7 years led to increased buybacks and leverage and endangered a bunch of companies during the inevitable recession"
Who could have foreseen that no cost money for the better part of a decades would lead to speculation? Who?
yep ... only a matter of time before blow up.
subprime auto lending ... already beginning to crack
Must be true. A lot like the fact that everything I put my builders level on is plumb and level. Ever since I painted the bubbles onto the vials.
One of the last levels to ever leave the gun rack in the back of a pick up truck. How do you say 'level' in Spanglish? 'No problem, we feex.'
"But why would the Fed raise interest rates and crash the party?"
Ummm, cause that is supposed to be their role...
Marketwatch, the CNBC of print.
A 'Sincere' IDIOT, no doubt!
Another reason this market will never go down even though both inevitably will and "are"as we speak!...
If a debate like this had taken place in the House or Senate just 40 years ago the National Guard would be dispatched to put down the protestors and the fires to the government buildings that line Constitution and Pennsylvaina Avenue(s).
What a different 40 years and meds make???!!!
Will Netflix go down on an upgrade today? That would be a red flag. So far nada no but only up 1.3% on the upgrade is interesting.
Russia has developed a suitcase-size Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) bomb. If Russia were to be provoked into retaliation for the Unites States' coming interference into Russia's Ukrainian foray and/or the (coming) intrusion into their Estonian/Baltic (NATO) neighbors, they could quite easily and anonymously detonate such an EMP bomb in the New York City area (and blame it on Somali Jihadists). Well, Mr. Perma-Bull... think of a Mad Max scenerio enveloping the entire USA within 48 hours. Poof... you're money is gone (We're sorry, we have no record of your account, please press 1 for english; 2 for spanish)... Stocks are cut by 90%, Gas pumps are off, your radio can only pick up garbled voices, your twelve hour generator is only half full and you're scrounging around for more candles. But don't worry; Barry's got you covered. He's on Air Force One and coming to the country's rescue right after his celebrity golf outing. The electorate now knows that Obama has character flaws that prevent him from being anything but a failed president. The remaining 29 months of his presidency may spell the end of america as we know (knew) it.
... or was his abject and colossal failure a glowing success in his (and Geo. Soros's) view because he succeeded so well in destroying the United States as a world power and turning it into little more than a populous banana republic.
Any bets on "Sincere" not being his real last name? My guess it used to be Davidson, Liebowicz, or some other version of AshkaNAZI.
When it goes pear shaped, and it will, this fucker needs his article tattooed onto his face.
Sure Sign of a Market Top:
When financial reporters start using words and phrases like never, can’t, impossible, guaranteed, sustainable, riskless, unstoppable, why worry ………
Sure Sign of Irresponsible, Biased, Captured, Advertising Client Driven Financial Reporting:
(See Sure Sign of a Market Top)
A long time ago when the market was normal, I am guessing that 80% of stock market plays were bullish in nature and 20% were bearish plays. Fast forward to today, a rigged bull market with very little volume. Of course the number of bearish plays are low. I find the 13% number in the article to be high.
Stocks Tumble To Red For September As Copper, AUD Crumble
Rigged to go up until it's rigged to go down.
Rigged up, until the jig is up and the rig topples over.
Remember the Zimbabwe market never went down, Venezuela never went down, USA never went down.... Price of Beef now over $5/lb...looking forward to your $50 Yellen Burger?
According to the brianiac 3000's, meat could go to $100.00 a pound, clothing could become unaffordable and a monthly electric bill could skyrocket to $10,000.00 a month, but if I phones and house prices go down... there is no inflation.
It will not go down because it correctly reflects inflation, and the whole economy would have to deflate to make the market go down, and raising interest rates is not a deflationary move, according to the textbooks.
Of course the textbooks don't work anymore, and I suppose raising interest rates for no fundamental reason could flatten an economy and cause deflation, including stocks. The problem is the Fed has already (since 2008) broken reality by lowering interest rates for "no reason", so simply stopping this interference could indeed look like deflation.
Wot a fooking mess.
there is no market
There is no spoon, Neo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzm8kTIj_0M
The Fed. and other central banks don't buy stocks, just like Belgium and Euroclear aren't backdoor UST buying proxies.
It's like the Fed is Nick Leeson in the movie Rogue Trader where the other trader in the pit asks Nick, "your not the big buyer holding this market up are you???" We found out how it looks when artificial support breaks.
Don't fight the Market Mate
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco:
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/september/assessing-expectations-monetary-policy/
Assessing Expectations of Monetary Policy
An ongoing concern has been that the public might misconstrue the Fed’s forward guidance about future monetary policy and underappreciate the extent to which short-term interest rates may vary with future news about the economy. Evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants. The public also may be less uncertain about these forecasts than policymakers.
Recently, subdued levels of volatility in financial markets have received some attention. For example, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (2014) noted that “indicators of expected volatility in some asset markets have fallen to low levels, suggesting that some investors may underappreciate the potential for losses and volatility going forward.” Prices of financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, are sensitive to unexpected changes in interest rates because their present values are determined by discounting future cash flows. Thus, the low volatility in asset markets could, in part, reflect market participants’ relative certainty about the future course of interest rates.
In this Letter, we assess the private sector’s views about future monetary policy in terms of both expected levels of the short-term interest rate and the uncertainty or disagreement in those expectations. Through its “forward guidance,” the Federal Reserve’s policymaking body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), provides an indication to the public about the stance of monetary policy expected to prevail in the future. Furthermore, since 2012, the FOMC participants’ projections of the appropriate target for the federal funds rate over the next several years and in the longer run have been included as part of their quarterly economic projections, which are released to the public. Research has shown that this communication of interest rate projections can better align the public’s and the central bank’s expectations, which could lead to improved macroeconomic performance (see, for example, Rudebusch and Williams 2008). However, an important concern is that the public might not give enough weight to how dependent the central bank’s guidance is on both current and incoming data. Thus, the public could underestimate the conditionality and uncertainty of interest rate projections.
We assess the public’s expectations about future monetary policy from three sources: (1) surveys of economic forecasters and primary dealers, (2) market prices of federal funds and Eurodollar futures, and (3) estimates from a financial-econometric model. We then compare these public expectations with the expectations reported in the June FOMC participants’ federal funds rate projections (Board of Governors 2014). Our analysis shows that, on balance, the public seems to expect more accommodative policy than FOMC participants. One measure of uncertainty also shows the range of the public’s forecasts is somewhat smaller than that among FOMC participants, suggesting the public also may be less uncertain about their projections.
Surveys of economic forecasters and primary dealers
We look at two surveys of private-sector professionals about their monetary policy outlook. One is the monthly Blue Chip Financial Forecast, based on a survey of about 50 professional economic forecasters on key financial variables, including the federal funds rate, up to five quarters in the future. For our analysis, we use the August 2014 Blue Chip forecast based on polling from July 23–24. The other is the Survey of Primary Dealers regularly collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York before each scheduled FOMC meeting. In the most recent survey dated July 21, 2014, 22 primary dealers—brokers or financial institutions that are able to purchase Treasury securities directly from the Fed—submitted forecasts of the target federal funds rate for the fourth quarter of 2014 through the first half of 2018, as well as their expected long-run value.
Figure 1 shows the expectations for the future federal funds rate from the two surveys, and the June FOMC participants’ funds rate projections, collected in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The Blue Chip median forecast of the federal funds rate at a quarterly average of 0.80% in the fourth quarter of 2015 appears to be consistent with the median SEP projection of 1% at the end of 2015. The primary dealers’ median forecast of the most likely date for the first funds rate hike was the third quarter of 2015. Note that their median forecast for the end of 2015 and the end of 2016 were 0.75% and 2.13%, respectively. These median forecasts are lower than the median SEP projection of 1% at the end of 2015 and 2.5% at the end of 2016.
In addition to the median forecasts, Figure 1 also shows the 25th and 75th percentile forecasts from primary dealers and FOMC participants. For a certain date in the forecast, the 25th percentile is the point at which one-quarter of the respondents believe the fed funds rate will be lower, and the 75th percentile is the point at which one-quarter of the respondents believe it will be higher. The distance between the 25th and 75th percentiles measures the forecast dispersion, an indicator of uncertainty or disagreement among the forecasters. In the July survey, the dispersion of the primary dealers’ forecast was smaller than that of the SEP projection. This suggests that FOMC participants were more uncertain about the future course of monetary policy than primary dealers were.
Michael Sincere?
That is dude's real name?
His prose, process and photo indicate that he's about 15 years old.
Funny shit, that.
Keep laughing. Main street is starting to stall. Ask any small buis owner.
Meanwhile these clowns are talking bail ins and wealth taxes. With government going feral at all levels. The social contract is busted.
Look around see that light? Yep its reality and its coming fast. So dance mfr dance!
Me I own the mother tools and know how to use them. My time is coming. Fools.
I think the Marketwatch article is worse than just funny. There is a concerted effort on MSM to draw in the last of the retails fooks to this bubble.
PPT is not a threory
additionally there was an act that allows the US govt to directly buy stocks in the market whenever they wnat to - such as after Yellen got in
If you combine the manipultion of the market (see CME pinky swears not to be bad -again here at ZH) together with man arrested for posting song lyrics on facebook (ZH) and homeland sec buying 300 million rounds to use on americans and Portugal bank collapse and Spain's twice and Cyprus and Iceland, and Irish Bank and Scottish Bank PLC and 4 trillion of bad debt bond buying by Fed giving banks money to play in the markets, and the 29trillion of central banks spec in the stock markets (ZH) and all the manufacturing exported to the totalitarian state of China via 1990 preferred trading status you see peices of a very ugly picture.
most disturbing in the lack of people being able to think. The mind control of the masses by MSM is almost totally and the masses believe thinking is reading the paper in the moring and watching the TV news throughout the day. Twits twittering each other.
We are not approaching Orwellian society we are deep in it and the control is all the more powerful that people can't/choose not to see it.
(This is more than 30 characters so I guess it won't be read.)
To say the market is rigged is an understatement. After over 30 years of trading commodities I will flat out state without any reservations that lies and manipulation run rampant. If you think anyone is looking out for the small independent trader you are wrong. An unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail has left the rest of us in a precarious position.
For the big boys, its insider information and computer trading, this includes computing patterns that exploit where stops are placed, this improves their ability to wash the weak out of their positions. The bottom-line is that the higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward move. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/markets-more-lies-and-munipulatio...
It actually wont go down; its fake (like the Nikkei) and run by robots.
Los Angeles and San Francisco could have an earthquake tomorrow that puts both cities into the Pacific Ocean and the algos would still buy on the bad news.
It will never go down because it can't go down. It will be propped up and jerry rigged because it can. If it comes down, bank investment and the derivitive cesspool explode. Normal market forces, price discovery etc. are meaningless today. All that matters is keeping US Fed, ECB, IMF, BIS and all the other Disney characters loaded with freshly minted fiat so they can prop up totally corrupt and bought off governments in the west and take an occasional stab at winning over Eastern Europe puppet governments (think Ukrane). Eventually there could be a systemic breakdown but so long as the current Rothchild express can keep this train on the tracks it will. If it derails you better have a plan B in place. Mine is physical and paper hard USD kept in my control. That's all a man can do.
The Rothchild dynasty only exists because of greed, corruption and ideology run amok. I used to despise the whole lot but have to give them credit, they have a hell of a business model!
The article is clearly a farse. Author even admits to some element of sarcasm in their comments section. HOWEVER-- what the true intent of such a piece on Market Watch of all things is absolutely, highly questionable.
Is the author a Tyler mocking Market Watch or a 15 year old posting from his econ class or is it some actual bait and switch/ click bait because Market Watch . Com is just pathetically desparate.
Who knows. END GAM3...
Zimbobwe's market did not go down. If only our stocks did this, CNBC would love it.... we would all be rich like Zimbobwe.
"Grand slam in financial trollery"...
LOL Tyler deserves an award for this shit, seriously.
Maybe this article is a very good one. Maybe one day it will be recognized as the seismograph, that nobody was able to interpret: if the market goes up by central bank intervention and the trust in their ability to "solve" problems, then the answer when it will go down, was obvious but nobody wanted to see it: if it goes up because of trust into CBs, then it can go down, when the trust in their abilities will erode.
Oh, btw, hyperinflation is NOT a monetary phenomenon - high inflation is a monetary phenomenon - but hyperinflation is a psychological phenomenon.
And when does it set in? When trust vanishes...
So maybe the perceived "strenght" of the market, moving forward like an unstoppable tank, maybe is a sign of weakness.
Forward, Zimbamerica!
(repost)
I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. It is as if we can't handle what is coming at us and need more time.
For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html
The only obvious thing is that the market is completely controlled. It goes up on command and if it ever goes down then it will be by decree as well.
It is not a market after all... just a scam.
Every single (EVERY SINGLE!) Bank Of America branch within at least 50 miles of my location has closed. I had a guy from Californicateh stop by asking where one was, and one of my co-workers did a search on his 'smart-phone' (I don't do that thingie). Poor guy can't get any money from his 'bank'.
Now, bear in mind, I don't live in a major metro area; BUT, the population within a 50-mile radius exceeds 650,000 people.
This pontificating prole thinks that the FED TRUMPS ALL. What happens when (not IF, but WHEN) the USD is suddenly fucking WORTHLESS because OPEC quits using it? Fucking B of A (they suck, and always have) has closed all their branches around here; I suppose because the KING USFEDRESDOLLAR is really doing WELL.
FUCK the stock market. I've been using the 'averages' as an indicator of hyperinflation. Let's see: DJIA 'G.M.' is closing up shop, murdering Detroit and outlying areas, losing money, recalling millions of vehicles because they suck overall; but their stock value? It SHOULD be down there with Bear-Stearns...
What's B of A doing right now? I really don't follow them (because I had an account there once a long, long time ago, and they SUCK, like the opinion of 'Micheal Sincere' does). I had an account with B of A 20 years before Micheal's daddy got his first pre-pubescent erection. Fucking 'bears and bulls' bullshit... this dude's an OUTLIER, a simple repeating propagandized and edumacated idiot who seems to think that the numbers of some privately-owned 'stock exchange' actually mean something besides the fact that the value of the currency being used to 'trade with' is being DEBASED. The companies are not worth any more (they are worth less, in speaking of those that PRODUCE GOODS as opposed to NOTHING OF VALUE). LOOK at G.M. LOOK at B of A. Fucking GOOGLE builds NOTHING, MAKES NOTHING, and in fact TAKES INFORMATION from the users and the investors. IT IS like the rope that the people are buying to hang themselves with... but their 'stock value' (along with others like it) is what's driving this current run-up.
This 'Micheal Sincere''s picture looks like that guy who was hawking ENZYTE on those T.V. commercials. SERIOUSLY.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghrWz7cVXv8
Yeah. 'satire'.
'Market Watch' is the FED's BITCH. The 'ORGAN' of the FED MEDIA. They are like the FED's version of the BEATLES album ('FEDMANIA'). I tried subscribing once in about 2007, but their crap is overwhelmingly 'pro-central-banking-oligarchy' stuff.
Joe Izuzu was more fun.
14% of amerikans own any stock............... even a lesser number from a gloabal persepective..... so sit back and ENJOY THE CARNAGE
Dow to infinity and USD to zero. Sounds like a plan.