The Black Swan Of Scotland

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears The UK government's approach to Scotland has shifted dramatically from threats (we can't guarantee your saefty against terrorists) to hugs and kisses.. as David Cameron begs Scots not to tear apart Britain's "family of nations."

"I would be heartbroken if this family of nations ... was torn apart," Cameron, speaking in the atrium of the Scottish Widows building in central Edinburgh.

It appears - as we explain below - there is good reason to panic...

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Got a mail from a friend in Scotland late last night that got me thinking. “Unfortunately, using Ireland as a model of fracture, we may start blowing up each other.” I’ve been reading a lot lately, in between all the other things, about Scotland, as should be obvious from my essay (Jim Kunstler tells me I can use that word) yesterday, Please Scotland, Blow Up The EU, and sometime today a thought crept up on me that has me wondering how ugly this thing is going to get. I think it can get very bad.

What I get from it all is that if anything is going to win this for the independence side, it must be the arrogance the London government has exhibited. That alone could seal the deal. But now of course London has belatedly woken up. Even David Cameron is scheduled to – finally – visit Scotland in the course of the contest. And if push comes to shove, they’ll throw in a royal baby. Or a Queen. Mark my words.

Cameron’s visit is funny in that he never thought it necessary until now because he thought he would win no matter what until a few days ago, and also funny because he must easily be the least popular person in all of Scotland, so a visit is a substantial risk. He had his bellboy Alistair King do a TV debate recently, and King flunked that thing so badly he may have single-handedly propelled the Yes side into the lead.

The knifes are being sharpened and soon they will be drawn – there’s only 9 days left. Question is, who will end up hurt? Bank of England Governor Mark Carney picked today of all days, 9 days before the referendum, to at last get more specific about his rate hike plan: it’s going to be early 2015. Because the UK economy is doing so great…

Only, wages will have to rise, and that will have to happen through British workers ‘earning’ pay hikes by ‘boosting their productivity and skills’. These workers have about 6 months to do that. You’re pulling my leg here, right, Mark? In any case, it seems obvious that Canadian Carney will be used as a tool against the Scottish independence movement. That’s just more arrogance.

Carney also spoke out directly on Scotland, saying there can’t be a currency union between the Scots and the Brits. Oh yeah, that should scare ‘em!

The pound sterling is falling, but that doesn’t mean much. What does is that the entire financial world, of which the City is a large part, was caught on the wrong foot as much as the UK government. And both will now, until September 18, pull all the stops to cover their – potential – losses. With all means at their disposition. Some of which will be brutal, or at least appear to be.

Billions of dollars have already been lost in just a few days, since everybody realized the UK may actually split up. Many more billions will be lost in the coming week, as measures of volatility go through the roof. Neither the Yes side nor the No side have gone into this thing terribly prepared; there are a zillion questions surrounding the independence issue that won’t be solved before the vote takes place. Passports, currencies, central banks, monetary unions, there’s too much even to mention.

Somewhere, emanating from the old crypts and burrows in which Britain was founded, I fear a hideous force may emerge to crush the Scottish people’s desire for self-determination, if only because that desire is a major threat to some very rich and powerful entities who found themselves as unprepared as Downing Street 10.

I don’t know if, as my friend fears (though he’s much closer to the action than I am, so who am I to speak), it will lead to people blowing up each other, but then also, who am I to rule that out? The UN charter on self-determination looks good on paper and in theory, but when reality comes knocking, there’s mostly not much left of the lofty ideals and intentions, or is that just me, Catalunya?

Still, there’s an added dimension in Scotland: the fact that the City of London is the number 1,2 or 3 (take your pick) most important finance center on the planet. If and when anybody rattles that kind of cage, other forces come into play. It’s no longer about politics, but about money (and no, I’m not too think to see how the two are linked).

So I hold my breath and my prayers for both my Scottish and my British friends – and I happen to have lots of them – and I hope this is not going to get completely out of hand. The reasons I think it may get out of hand regardless is that 1) there is not one side that was ever prepared for the situation in which they find themselves today and 2) there is an enormous supra-national interest that resides in the UK financial world which is in a semi panic mode about how much money can be lost not just because of a UK break-up, but because of the uncertainty surrounding that potential break-up.

And there’s something in all of that which is definitely scary. London, and the Queen, will do all they can not to lose part of their ‘empire’. The City of London will do even more not to lose a substantial part of their wealth. And this time around I don’t think they properly hedged their bets: the surge of the Yes side is as close to a black swan as we, and the City of London, have seen.

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ZerOhead's picture

Carney warns British pound will fall to 14 ounces if Scotland becomes free...

El Oregonian's picture

The Sterling just got "Kilt"...

TahoeBilly2012's picture

"If I loose control of a Nation's money supply, I am doomed" (One of the Great Grand Children of The Rothchild's last week).

cocoablini's picture

The election will be rigged...

Unless there is money to be made. Honestly, Goldman could make a mint getting Scotland on the Euro and levering them to hell like Ireland and Greece. Scotland will be the new "tiger" and then it can collapse.

Democratic koolaid's picture

Scotland's going to retain the pounds plus tabulate intrest on the English using it for over 300 years.   

 

Xibalba's picture

And taking credit for Andy Murray

Elvis the Pelvis's picture

I like Scotland.  In fact, I really miss the Glasgow Rangers.  Too bad they went broke.  I'm looking forward to seeing them back in th premier league.

yrad's picture

Diebold. It's what's for dinner..

whotookmyalias's picture

Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.

Anusocracy's picture

That's a silly saying. Freedom is an absolute, slavery comes in degrees.

Freedom is a word meaning to not have any slavery to lose.

StormShadow's picture

Yeah, it makes a ton of sense when you're on drugs...

NihilistZero's picture

Unfortunately the rest of the world is a shit hole as well.

capitallosses's picture

No where to run, no where to hide. But I will be getting my birth right Scottish passport if YES prevails.

Cactus's picture

Immigrants desparate to come here though. 

The world is going through crazy times, be grateful for a roof, food & water.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Why do I get the feeling that there are two forces at work in the world today:  One to keep it (and the fiat Ponzi) together, and one to pull it apart (individual and organized crime, financial crises, disease & pandemics, revolutions and wars). 

Order vs Chaos.  Homogenization vs Diversity.  Collectivism vs Individualism.  Nationalism vs Separatism.  And the pace seems to be picking up also.

knukles's picture

What you see, feel, hear and sense is the age olde battle for the very soul of man, the contest between good and evil.

StormShadow's picture

Always money to up be made on both sides of a trade.

J S Bach's picture

Don't worry... Sir Diebold will win it for the Crown.

bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Indeed....you don't win freedom at the ballot box.

Democratic koolaid's picture

216 billion GDP to 5 million people... Scotland would top Switzerland, Canada or any of the Scandinavian countrys in standard of living. 

They just need to re-structure some things, kinda like serfdom in a scence.

 

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The computer servers are run by the MacCloud clan.   They're up in the Skye, I believe.   ;-)

What say you, Angus?  United or Seperate?

Herodotus's picture

I think that they still use old fashioned paper ballots over there.  No machines.  Just your "X" marked in the YES box or the NO box. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"I don't care how you vote, just who counts those votes." - Paraphrase of some long dead tyrant.

Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Just a knighthood for saving the Realm?  You'd think that be worth a duchy or barony, at least.

Buck Johnson's picture

He's correct, they aren't prepared because they never thought it would get to this point.  Now they are looking at losing hundreds of billions if not more and we all know that if this happens other countries will do the same also.

 

 

krispkritter's picture

Vote Aye! ya bastards! And then toss out the EU as well!

JenkinsLane's picture

Come on you Jocks!

 

What hasn't been covered is if the Scots do vote for independence that could

mean a hung parliment in what's left of the UK for.... er, forever possibly,

which in turn could mean what's left of the UK would, politically, become

the new Italy.

 

 

 

 

TahoeBilly2012's picture

Imagine the soccer hooligans in England when they no longer have ANY empire left....eeeeww not pretty MATE

Quantum Nucleonics's picture

How do you figure? Scotland's MPs are overwhelmingly Labor.  40 to 19, I think.  If the Scots are independent, they lose their representation at Westminister.  If it goes yes, it strengthens the Tories in the long run - though in the short run Cameron might sink the party for having let the whole thing go through.

sidiji's picture

black swan? yeah right, no one gives a shit about UK except the UK traders and they all deserve to die anyway

wide mouth kid's picture

surely that's the point of a black swan, no-one gives a shit and therefore overlooks the additional risks and ramifications?

trader1's picture

Russell Brand calls for end of the monarchy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcjJUI8vZRg

Sirius Wonderblast's picture

But lets face it, he is a total arsewipe.

RadioactiveRant's picture

Thats treason, off with his head.

John Wilmot's picture

I call for a Stuart restoration in Scotland

(and for hipster-doofus pseudo-intellectual Russel Brand to kill himself: auto-erotic asphyxiation would seem fitting)

Herodotus's picture

The rightful heir, if I recall correctly, is a Bavarian aristocrat and speaks German only.  But he said he would consider the job if offered.

John Wilmot's picture

Yes, Duke Franz of Bavaria (but he also speaks French, English, and Hungarian)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz,_Duke_of_Bavaria

Interesting fact: his family opposed the NAZIs in the 1930s and ended up in Dachau.

Compare to Harry "Windsor" who likes to dress up as a NAZI at parties, or his father, who is by all accounts retarded.

TahoeBilly2012's picture

Not nice to call inbreds "retards" we call them "genetically challenged"

Freddie's picture

Which father?  For all his faults - Harry seems less retarded than Charlie and looks nothing like him.

Duke Franz seems like a decent bloke and kudos to his family.  The nazis were a disaster for Germany but we all know the banksters and the mega corporations ran the nazis.   The Third Reich was getting aviation gas shipped to them from American companies.  In some cases by ships through South America.