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The Black Swan Of Scotland
It appears The UK government's approach to Scotland has shifted dramatically from threats (we can't guarantee your saefty against terrorists) to hugs and kisses.. as David Cameron begs Scots not to tear apart Britain's "family of nations."
"I would be heartbroken if this family of nations ... was torn apart," Cameron, speaking in the atrium of the Scottish Widows building in central Edinburgh.
It appears - as we explain below - there is good reason to panic...
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Got a mail from a friend in Scotland late last night that got me thinking. “Unfortunately, using Ireland as a model of fracture, we may start blowing up each other.” I’ve been reading a lot lately, in between all the other things, about Scotland, as should be obvious from my essay (Jim Kunstler tells me I can use that word) yesterday, Please Scotland, Blow Up The EU, and sometime today a thought crept up on me that has me wondering how ugly this thing is going to get. I think it can get very bad.
What I get from it all is that if anything is going to win this for the independence side, it must be the arrogance the London government has exhibited. That alone could seal the deal. But now of course London has belatedly woken up. Even David Cameron is scheduled to – finally – visit Scotland in the course of the contest. And if push comes to shove, they’ll throw in a royal baby. Or a Queen. Mark my words.
Cameron’s visit is funny in that he never thought it necessary until now because he thought he would win no matter what until a few days ago, and also funny because he must easily be the least popular person in all of Scotland, so a visit is a substantial risk. He had his bellboy Alistair King do a TV debate recently, and King flunked that thing so badly he may have single-handedly propelled the Yes side into the lead.
The knifes are being sharpened and soon they will be drawn – there’s only 9 days left. Question is, who will end up hurt? Bank of England Governor Mark Carney picked today of all days, 9 days before the referendum, to at last get more specific about his rate hike plan: it’s going to be early 2015. Because the UK economy is doing so great…
Only, wages will have to rise, and that will have to happen through British workers ‘earning’ pay hikes by ‘boosting their productivity and skills’. These workers have about 6 months to do that. You’re pulling my leg here, right, Mark? In any case, it seems obvious that Canadian Carney will be used as a tool against the Scottish independence movement. That’s just more arrogance.
Carney also spoke out directly on Scotland, saying there can’t be a currency union between the Scots and the Brits. Oh yeah, that should scare ‘em!
The pound sterling is falling, but that doesn’t mean much. What does is that the entire financial world, of which the City is a large part, was caught on the wrong foot as much as the UK government. And both will now, until September 18, pull all the stops to cover their – potential – losses. With all means at their disposition. Some of which will be brutal, or at least appear to be.
Billions of dollars have already been lost in just a few days, since everybody realized the UK may actually split up. Many more billions will be lost in the coming week, as measures of volatility go through the roof. Neither the Yes side nor the No side have gone into this thing terribly prepared; there are a zillion questions surrounding the independence issue that won’t be solved before the vote takes place. Passports, currencies, central banks, monetary unions, there’s too much even to mention.
Somewhere, emanating from the old crypts and burrows in which Britain was founded, I fear a hideous force may emerge to crush the Scottish people’s desire for self-determination, if only because that desire is a major threat to some very rich and powerful entities who found themselves as unprepared as Downing Street 10.
I don’t know if, as my friend fears (though he’s much closer to the action than I am, so who am I to speak), it will lead to people blowing up each other, but then also, who am I to rule that out? The UN charter on self-determination looks good on paper and in theory, but when reality comes knocking, there’s mostly not much left of the lofty ideals and intentions, or is that just me, Catalunya?
Still, there’s an added dimension in Scotland: the fact that the City of London is the number 1,2 or 3 (take your pick) most important finance center on the planet. If and when anybody rattles that kind of cage, other forces come into play. It’s no longer about politics, but about money (and no, I’m not too think to see how the two are linked).
So I hold my breath and my prayers for both my Scottish and my British friends – and I happen to have lots of them – and I hope this is not going to get completely out of hand. The reasons I think it may get out of hand regardless is that 1) there is not one side that was ever prepared for the situation in which they find themselves today and 2) there is an enormous supra-national interest that resides in the UK financial world which is in a semi panic mode about how much money can be lost not just because of a UK break-up, but because of the uncertainty surrounding that potential break-up.
And there’s something in all of that which is definitely scary. London, and the Queen, will do all they can not to lose part of their ‘empire’. The City of London will do even more not to lose a substantial part of their wealth. And this time around I don’t think they properly hedged their bets: the surge of the Yes side is as close to a black swan as we, and the City of London, have seen.
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Will ultimately fail because thats the way the "votes" will be counted. Just like everybody knew Obama would fail.
"Referendum leaders announced today that ID will have to be shown to vote, and all votes will be counted manually."
Spokesman Scott McCoy said "We have to do this right, or else we will have the results they get in America."
And that right there is called using your brain gentlemen. Oh God how I wish we had a damn McCoy in the U.S. Instead we have a fucking McConnell..........
"This reminds me of the occasional secession votes in Quebec."
Immigration promoting "diversity" has made it hopeless for Québec to become an independent state. Ottawa has them by the balls now...
Or the fact that Quebec is basically a welfare province
Those multi billion $ transfer payments from the federal government are hard to say no to
LOL
I just recently moved to Quebec. I have been praying for Quebec secession most of my life even though it is not in my roots.
Quebec is socially very different from most other parts of Canada. There are good things and there are bad things about Quebec. Over all, the good out-weighs the bad, for me. The vast majority of Canadians are very ignorant about Quebec and French-Canadian culture or economy. Calling out "Quebec" as a welfare province in Canada is unwise. Every province is a welfare province one way or an other, in my opinion.
Cutting transfers will only be a good thing. The Quebec tax-payers have the means to be self-sufficient. If you cut off all transfer payments -- heck, even if you imposed sanctions, the Quebec economy will survive quite hardily on its own ---- minus the parasitic civil servants and crony-capitalists.
For non-Canadians, here are the most important things to understand about Quebec:
1) There are MORE than enough hydro-electric dams to supply their populace.
2) Everywhere you go, there are road-side farmers stands.
3) They have their own police force.
4) Quebec women are more concerned about looking good than they are about having a relationship with a shoe-phone.
As far as immigration is concerned, Quebec-statists have independent control over their immigration policy.
Freedom for Scotland!
Come on Texas. Let's get them dogies rollin'.
Knock Knock
Agent Haffcracker: Who dat?
Tex.
Tex who?
Tex-As
What's that?
A rope.
TPTB stand to lose a nickle? Well, damn right there will be violence!
dope dealing dynasty crumbling right before your eyes.... they also are invested in the global warming business.... wonderful bunch of people.......
Knock knock
Cameron: Who is there, I say?
Black.
Black Who?
Black Swan.
(opens door)
You're not a swan, you're a Scot!
Wait until after the vote.
*****
Knock Knock
Cameron: I say, who is there?
William.
William who?
Wiliam Wallace.
What's that?
A big sword.
I don't have one.
Pity.
Ah, yes, the Black Swan, that rarest of birds
http://www.pinterest.com/pin/206813807861651356/
O Flower of Scotland
when will we see your like again?
That fought and died for
your wee bit hill and glen,
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army,
and sent him homeward
Tae think again.
VOTE YES !
Does anyone know the math involved here? How much north sea oil will Scotland lay claim to? Gas reserves? If you have oil and gas, you have currency. Is the referendum stemming from patriotic nationalistic sentiments, or is this about oil and gas, thinly veiled? This article has few facts and is mostly fluff.
It's a bit of both. Scotland is a net receiver of government spending vs the taxes it pays, net of the oil revenue. Scotland can lay claim to most of the oil revenue, but there's no agreement on how it will work out... thus the volatility of the GBP. Something the Scots don't seem to have thought through, most of "Scotland's" oil reserves are really in the Shetland Islands, which has a very different demographic and cultural cross-section from the rest of Scotland. The islanders might tell Scotland to F-off and seek to remain part of the the UK, which would blow up the Scot's socialist utopia proforma budget.
Several complex issues surround the idea of going off on their own. If Scotland wants independence then so be it, but sorting out the political and economic ties with the rest of the UK, may be difficult. Scotland has to be allowed to stand on its own two feet without the rest of the UK financially and economically supporting it.
The Euro proves that more than one sovereign country cannot easily use the same currency. Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Spain have discovered that you cannot have full independence and share a currency. Another problem is that if the UK Government is to agreeable to a separation, will Wales and Northern Ireland move towards independence? That might encourage similar movements in Catalonia, Belgium, Northern League in Italy, Basques, Cornish, and among the Poles. More on the issues surrounding the pound and an independent Scotland in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/british-pound-and-independant-sco...
Let them go, There isnt enough oil in the north see to pay for all the welfare and unemployment those moochers use in a year.
If the Scots slip the leash will Brenda paste the line about "rebellious Scots to crush" back in her song?
"The knifes are being sharpened and soon they will be drawn"
Hate to be picky, but it's hard to sharpen a knife before you draw it.
Banksters panicing. LOL
Don't worry guys. You'll get your well earned muliti-millionaire dollar bonus's you so thoroughly deserve.
Record bonus - spelled T-A-R-P
Only $200B a letter.
This article is propaganda puff.
"the fact that the City of London is the number 1,2 or 3 (take your pick) most important finance center on the planet..."
Wake me when the fraud factories get a clue. No one wants to clean up the vomit from fraud. Pick a "financial" center of hell.
The Scots pay the Brit bankers of zero shame back fraudx10.
No one wants fraud banking rot. Hopefully the racket in America's DC are taking notes.
USSR fragmented, and all the satellites returned to glory. Those controlled by Putin will have to endure another depression before they get their glory.
Its not so hard to separate 2 RATIONAL entities... they will recover in a quarter, even less!
I doubt if the Black Swan of Scotland smokes crack and sucks dick, but Scotland is where golf was first played, so that's something they have over the American Black Swan.
Does it ever occurs to those Scots with a grudge that many of the English detest the English establishment even more than they do?
S'right!
If the vote is 'yes' look for a new production by the Bolshoi of Swan Loch.
When the corps de ballet, in black tutus, performs the famous 'Danse des petit cygnes' there won't be a dry eye at the Royal Opera House.
Prince Siegfried, who will be danced by David Cameron at the premier, drowns in a sea of the lies he has told in behalf of the neocons of Washington.
Naturally some of the ballet enthusiasts when they left Covent Garden were heard to be whistling " By yon bonnie banks and by yon bonnie braes: Whaur the sun shine bright on etc etc.
SEPTEMBER 11 Now. Anniversary of
Battle of Stirling BridgeWilliam Wallace. . . VOTE YES- !!!
The author makes it sound like the breakup of nation states into smaller states will be disastrous for the EU but I'm not sure.
I think the Maoist kleptocrats in Brussels would love to have tinier nation-states to deal with. That way Brussels' hand gets stronger and the identity of the traditional nation-states fades away. And just think of all those juicy new victims member states to squeeze the life out of provide generous lending programs to.
The whole thing plays right into their hands, really.
Into The Valley (about how the Scots are heavily recruited by the British to fight their ****ing bankster wars). Wars financed by Cameron's German tribe family for the Red Shield.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9udxbvHiqGw
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Into_the_Valley
A brilliant and young Stuart Adamson on guitar who succumbed to the other Scottish curse - drink. The Skids had other good songs like Working For the Yankee Dollar. Charles - about a bloke who works in a factory many hours and eventually morphs into a machine and becomes obsolete. Insightful lyrics back in 1980 from a 18 to 20 year old Richard Jobson and Stuart. Very ZH type of stuff.
Come on Scotland - go independent.
As an American of Irish descent, an American whose family members fought the British for independence and died for that cause, I find the YES vote the only answer for the Scots. Let Scotland and its vast natural resourses (oil and gas) become the new Switzerland of Europe as the old Switzerland is but a shadow of its former self. Scotland could do as Ireland did and allow corporations to reside there in order to gain a tax advantage. Lower the VAT and scores of business, big and small will arrive.
Those Scots that vote no are Scots that have been made soft by the British.
boht aye
absolute drivel
Yes Cameron is disliked in Scotland as are all Conservatives
TV debate was between Alex Salmond ( Scottish First Minister & leader of the Scots Nationalists)
& Alistair Daring ( a Scot who was Chancellor in Gordon Brown's UK Government)
Not Alistair King ( you are problem mixing up names as Mervyn King was Governor of Bank of England)
There were 2 debates & Darling was viewed as winning the first & losing the second.
Logical that a Scot & Labour politician would lead the No campaign as Labour & Scot Nats are the 2 big parties in Scotland. Not least as a yes vote would mean Labour would in future lose their Scottish MPs & thus find it much more difficult to win a UK election.They have a much bigger incentive to get a NO vote.
Nothing like the Irish situation of the 20's which came after an armed uprising
How have billions been lost & by whom
Yes there are numerous issues that probably haven't been addressed by both sides that will cause problems in the event of a yes vote- some major like where to put UK's nuclear submarine base
Scotalnd is c8% of popululation so whilst in the short term there will a big mess sorting out everything but hopefully that wont happen
+1 for the "absolute drivel"
the author of this article, Raul Ilargi Meijer, did not strike me as particularly coherent in previous articles at "automatic earth"
I have no idea where he comes from, but his "anti-EU" diatribes are often quite uninformed, while his financial market pieces go quite deep
it's strange for me to read from people that can be so knowleageble about finance but be so damn ignorant about politics. an issue with his education, perhaps?
Nice post, I was thinking to myself who's Alistair King?
Re the subs - Barrow in Furness.
Spain getting the jitters, markets falling quite hard this morning Dow testing 17k S&P down to 1988, big POMO today, but markets getting spooked
OK. So the money men in The City are going to arrange some sort of false flag disaster to influence voting in Scotland. Nothing new there.
Here's another piece of food for thought;
IF Scotland votes YES, it becomes the same as any other country and should therefore be subject to passport inspection and immigration controls whn entering England. But Westminster hasn't got the guts to do this. It will allow unfettered movement of people, not least because there are too many English elitists who have country homes in Scotland, eg: The Royals and they don't want to be subjected to passport checks etc.
What will happen when the Scottish economy goes belly up (as it surely will due to Salmond's over estimates of oil revenues from North Sea and half of their financial orgs already relocating to London) and jobs are lost etc etc. The Scots will then do what they've always done: flood south into England looking for work or better paid work. Since they won't need immigration controls, no problem. Until the English start complaining about Scots taking their jobs, as they do now about other EU nationals taking their jobs.
This issue and many hundreds of others have not been given more than a moment's thought by the political elites in Westminster and Edinburgh.
Its now all talk of Banks moving
The reality will be different
Its nonsense and they know it.
Why would they move.
How could they possibly know now what will happen 2 3 or 5 years down the road.
No one knows what will happen if and when the vote is YES.
It's change and that is what i important.
The status quo means no change and when there is no change there are no opportunities.
Change makes opportunities possible.,
Every smart businessman knows that, or are these so so smart businessmen, especially in banking going to throw opportunities that will be everywhere in Scotland away. timidly hiding over the border, fearful that they might lose a few shillings, from their 4 % book.
Don't make me laugh.
With a YES vote I will be amongst the first to go to Scotland to open an office to take advantage of the opportunities that are bound to happen. and any smart person would be doing the same, not knowing what will happen, only in the sure knowledge that those changes will bring opportunities for the smartest to spot and capitalize on.
On the contrary.
I believe these are lies and that the banks have no intention of leaving until at least the dust has settled and they have surveyed the new landscape and assessed all the fresh opportunities.
Only then, should those opportunities prove to be in such a dearth and that the Scottish economy does not prove itself open to the changes brought by the challenges would it grudgingly decide to move.
The only people who want a NO vote are those backward looking status quo tree huggers who are fearful of their stipend ripped from the taxpayers.
The bureaucrats, the politicians, the vested interests all with their beaks firmly dipping deep into the trough and their tentacles anchored on the graft and corruption of centuries.
Take the challenge and look forward and vote for change. It is the strong virile and proper thing to do.
Shake the old corrupt out and vote the new in, no matter what it may be, and no one, not a single person, has yet learned to forecast the future, to my knowledge.
Not Camoron, not Mother Shipton, not the galaxies of astrologers, who would surely be now as rich as Croesus of they could even half foretell the future.
The only thing I know about those who have their sandwich boards out proclaiming the end of the world is nigh, .have always without exception, been Wrong,
The future is what you make of it and it unfolds in surprising ways, and only by presenting new opportunities and challenges do you open the possibility for real changes to happen.
The status quo is always a dead end, it leaves the corrupt and crony, in charge, and they will never provide any opportunity for any man that they can hold into their own, greedy self serving domain.
This is why Scotland needs a Yes vote.
Salmond and the politicians are irrelevant. bankers and these newly found astrologers telling you with such certainly what is in your stars are charlatans just as much as the old gypsy's.
Take no heed of their shrill noises nor of the bribes and blandishments, for they are bribes and blandishments that are being wrought from your own hide, and they intend to take every penny back and double should you accept.
Europe is the same, no matter what the screeches and howls of the pathetic europhanatics are it was doomed and always was, and as I and so many others forecast here years ago, will in time come to pass.
The momentum for change is gathering , its power is rising and the direction is clear to all who open their eyes, no matter how much the vested interests try to avert your gaze, lie and spin and offer false platitudes and illogical and falsified reasoning for the continuing slide into depression and obscurity.
Europe Scotland Spain Venice, Greece, Italy and France, are now firmly in the grip of that new momentum for change and a dissolving of the old order.
I is happening even as you close your eyes and pretend to yourselves it is only a flash in the pan, that nothing can come of it.
And history is littered with the bodies of those who closed their eyes, because they were so set in their ways and fearful of change they were unprepared when change came.
When a world change is coming you need to open your eyes and see it, and not waste time hankering for the status quo and wasting energy fighting it because when you lose, and lose you will if you take that course, then you too will be just another body buried in history only ever known as another Canute.
The BANKS ARE NOT MOVING, ONLY THEIR REGISTERED/HOLDING COMPANY ADDRESSES ... DUH
Anmd then they will install new companies totake advantae of the coming scottish tax breaks, lol
City companies change tax domicile regulary, no big deal
Make no mistake, I pray Scot's man up taking their north sea wealth and Independence with it screwing the shit out of the CoL. I just do not think the means is there to succeed, rigged voting & weak kneed housewives. I have been asking myself, 'Why Now', and have found no answer aside from the timing itself.
The uncertainty instilled in the City of London leading up to the 18th is worth a tried but failed Scottish Independence movement. The banksters are forced to shuffle their deck chairs against the worst whether they like it or not. Just another means of putting the pricks off balance at a critical time. This being THE critical time may well be the answer to 'Why Now'.
Financial reshuffling is bound to weaken the corporation that much more to the next black swan. From where will it come?
Scotts have been at the english beck and call for decades - the vote is about a resurgent identity.
forget the economics, etc, if you are a nation and you want your independence, go for it.
liberty as the US found comes at a high price.
Hell when the Yes campaign was saying people will be worse of for £1400 by voting indpendence, think of how many fish and chip meals i could buy.... if i were a scots, that alone would make me vote YES.
WTF, would you sell your national identity for £1400?
Would you like to be associated with a bunch of people who assumed you would?
The answer, to any self respecting individual would be to tell such persons offering to go F themselves. Well done England....
of course there are lots of issues to sort out , but give me liberty and the freedom to sort it out, and f it up along the way, MY way, not Your way
FREEDOM !
Tell the Rothschilds to go to hell.