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Russian Retaliation Begins: Gazprom "Limiting EU Gas", Cuts Poland Supplies By 24% In Past Two Days
Update: Bloomberg notes that Russian gas deliveries to Europe are suddenly in accelerating flux.
- Ukraine today received request from Poland to ship 11mcm/d of Russian gas, Ihor Prokopiv, CEO of Ukraine’s pipeline operator Uktransgaz, says in Kiev. Gazprom sent note it’s ready to supply just 7mcm, Prokopiv says
- Poland halted reverse gas flow to Ukraine of 4mcm/d by 3pm Warsaw, later than initially planned, Prokopiv
And yet:
- GAZPROM SAYS GAS FLOWS TO POLAND REMAINING AT 23MCM/D
So all is well on the surface. Just don't look underneath.
Over the weekend, we commented that in response to Europe's latest, and most serious, sanction round which would finally impact Russian energy giants Rosenft, Gazprom Neft (but not Gazprom) and Transneft, "suddenly the stakes for Russia, and thus Europe, just got all too real, as Putin will now have no choice but to really ramp up the retaliatory escalation, which following the food ban can only mean one thing: a staggered reduction in gas flow to Europe."
And while Europe appears to have blown its load prematurely, with the sanctions leaked before Europe actually has the consensus to implement them (it is now a daily threat by Europe which is screaming that it will impose the sanctions any minute yet not actually doing so), Russia has no such moral quandaries and three days following our forecast, here comes Gazprom confirming once again that it is perfectly happy to play the "mutual defection" strategy in the ongoing and ever escalating game theory between Europe and Russia for one simple reason: it has all the leverage.
From Bloomberg:
- RUSSIA LIMITING EU GAS TO RESTRICT REVERSE SUPPLY TO UKRAINE
In other words, this is only the beginning as Ukraine has clearly made the case that it will plug its gas reserve gap using "reverese flow" of Russian gas in transit to Europe. More importantly, this follows news earlier today from Poland’s PGNiG which said Gazprom lowered supply by 20%-24% in past 2 days.
So is this the beginning of the quite literal, ahead of the winter, European cold war? It looks like it, although for now it is all covered up in diplomacy with Bloomberg reporting that the Russian exporter "set volumes of daily natgas deliveries to Poland at level of end of last week due to preparations for heating season in Russia, Gazprom official says by phone, asking not to be identified in line with corporate policy." That, and conveniently Gazprom decided to "carry out some maintenance work at its pipeline system in Russia." Some maintenance work which suddenly saw Poland, which is 80% reliant on Russian gas, receive up to a quarter less Russian gas...
Finally, Gazprom noted that it also has to pump additional 7.3bcm of fuel to local underground inventories for winter in next month.
To be sure, Poland refused to tip its cards, and quickly commented that it won’t be hurt "as its underground storage is full", as was to be expected simply to avoid giving Russia all the leverage, something we also explained previously, when we observed in "Here Is Why Europe Just Launched The "Nuclear Option" Against Russia" that the Europe's 2014 winter war will be between the amount of gas held in European reserves, and how long Russian companies can go without obtaining European funding.
Then again, and once again confirming it is all about leverage, and who has it, Gazeta.ru reports that it took Poland just hours to halt its reverse flow to Ukraine:
Poland has suspended gas supplies to Ukraine in reverse flow. This was stated by the head of the company "Ukrtransgaz" Igor Prokop'ev, reports RIA "Novosti."
"Not everything is so simple. Today, Russia has begun to limit the supply of gas to the Republic of Poland to thwart reverse with Poland, we learn. At two o'clock in Poland ceased to reverse the Ukraine within the 4 million cubic meters ", - he explained the situation.
Earlier Polish PGNiG reported about the reduction of Russian gas supplies by 24%.
Gazprom’s press service declines to provide immediate comments, although none is needed after taking a quick look at the European dependence on Russia gas map conveniently placed below.
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Germany's plan to become the ruler of new Europe of course (a tiger never loses its stripes)...first you have to destroy the economies of the weaker Euro states, once those have lost their sovereignty, it's just a matter of time until der Gross Deutschland uber alles...
Germany's plan to become the ruler of new Europe of course (a tiger never loses its stripes)...first you have to destroy the economies of the weaker Euro states, once those have lost their sovereignty, it's just a matter of time until der Gross Deutschland uber alles...
More likely US sends Germany to destroy the weak, and when only Germany is left, US comes and
destroys Germany. First the Muppets have to do the dirty work ....
It´s their usual divide and rule Game.
The EU may be a US puppet but, surprise surprise Israel isn't
MOSCOW, September 10 (RIA Novosti) – Israel is ready to provide Russia with the necessary technology to help Moscow reduce its dependence on food supplies from abroad, Israel’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Yair Shamir told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.
“If the Russian government makes the decision that it wants to build farms to produce this and that and that, we are able to do that. Easily. We have done it in Belarus, we have done it in many other countries in a relatively short time. The results are fantastic. We are also a source of technology and know-how. And we are ready to do that,” Shamir said.
“Once the government wants to go for big production lines in order to get independence we can help easily. We are in the top niche. You are getting the best of the best available today in the market. Most of the people dealing in it speak Russian or at least have a Russian accent,” he added.
Yair Shamir said that Tel-Aviv sees Western sanctions against Russia as an opportunity for Israel to advance into the Russian market.
“For us it is a great opportunity. Absolutely. Even if the sanctions are reduced I believe our products will continue to flow into Russia. It will be easier to deal with us, it will be cheaper and more stable with no political price tag for what you do and what you don’t,” he added.
Shamir also expressed confidence that trade between Russia and Israel could increase rapidly in the context of current political situation.
“It can go up to a billion of dollars. Easily. Of course it will not be 40 billion that Russia used to buy from Europe. But I think we can get to a billion dollars. Easily. In the short term,” the minister mentioned.
Un-fucking real. Figures. Maybe Europe should wise up too.
"The EU may be a US puppet but, surprise surprise Israel isn't"
Don't be more stupid than you absolutely have to be. Israel indeed is a US puppet state, but it's also got some cojones left - and it's not headed by the utterly slavish EU commission.
TEL AVIV, September 10 (RIA Novosti) – Israel will continue food supplies to Russia even if it is pressured by the European Union to limit the sales, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development of Israel Yair Shamir told RIA Novosti Wednesday.
“First of all I don’t feel it [pressure] and I don’t see it. Take into account that lately the Europeans have been putting some boycotts on our products. So how it goes? They put boycott on us and we will not help somebody else? They can’t. They can’t on the one hand stop [Israeli] sales to Europe and on the other hand stop sales to Russia. That doesn’t work together. They have to decide,” Shamir said.
“If they come to us and say ‘Well, we will not do any boycott’. Then maybe we can negotiate. But I don’t think that Israeli government will go for that,” Shamir added.
[Israel indeed is a US puppet state]
You have got that totally ass-backwards.
Israel's only puppetmaster is the Almighty Shekel
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/kazakhstan-stays-away-from-russia-s-food-import-ban/504853.html
... Putin is all Smoke and Mirrors...
The map of Europe's dependence on Russian gas does not count Spain, Portugal, the UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Iceland...
Sloppy job.
Dependence is a two way street
The map is also of cash flow to Russia
All Team_RUS needs to do are the following:
1) Force the Prepayment of Oil/Gas rendered.
2) Force them to pay it in Ruble, Yuan, Au, or (for sympathizers, EUR)
3) Modify Gas Flow to match Nation-State/Commercial relations.
Piece o'cake.
If ISIL pops in to make a ruckus to pump up Black Market Px for their Oil/Gas, then we'll have a Cluster Fail of a stituation. I'm not wishing for it; but ISIL did say they're due to hit Europe. I can't think of a more opportune moment to introduce themselves as a Force to be reckoned, a Source of Fuel, and as Pwners of their Bitches.
I don't understand why Kiev is
bothering to arrange "reverse flow"
of gas from other countries. instead
of simply stealing it from the pipelines
like they usually do.
So are the dumb Pollacks giving gas to Ukraine for free? Ukraine doesn't pay anyone anymore