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Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since June
For the 2nd week in a row, initial claims missed expectations and on the heels of last week's dismal payrolls data (which was "unbelievable" according to the smartest people in the room) it surged to 315k - the highest since June. Perhaps most critically, on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis, initial claims are highher year-over-year (SA 315k vs 307k, NSA 234k vs 229k respectively). Is this noise? It has been 7 weeks now from the mid-July lows... and the 4-week-average many look at, has risen for 4 of the last 5 weeks.
Trend change?
Full Breakdown
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Ahead of next week's FOMC, the question is - is this bad enough to be good enough to enable the fed to stay dovish-er?
Chart: Bloomberg
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Hijack -
What in the actual fuck?
http://www.infowars.com/army-officer-barred-from-wearing-offensive-unifo...
No big surprise that unemployment spiking higher along with foreclosures and falling McDonald's sales now that QE is ending and the Feral Reserve UN-balanced sheet is loaded to the brim with shit.
Gosh, who could have seen this coming!?
And what did I tell you mooks!??
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/nasdaq-tumbles-red-week-sp-cros...
YES WE CAN!!!
NOTT!!
Paging Mark Zandi! Economy break in aisle 5! Paging Mark Zandi!
Obviously Obama knew these numbers were coming so he unilaterally declared war in order to put people back to work in the military and industry.
With the dollar increasing losing its monopoly on reserve status the Fed has to be ready to raise interest rates (to defend the value of the dollar) come hell or high water, balancing that priority against the risk of collapsing the economy prior to the (seemingly inevitable) dollar collapse.
Raise rates..... Lol, it ain't happening. We will never see a fed funds rate above 1% again.
Maybe rates won't go up if we go all out war with Russia and China and win decisively. Otherwise, the dollar loses reserve status, collapses, and that becomes the Feds problemo numero uno, meaning rates have to go up to mitigate the depth of the dollar collapse. Of course, these are only my opinions, and I certainly respect yours too doc. I never get too attached to my own opinions, lest they begin to own me.
The problem is with the trillions of derivatives and the unfunded liabilities the fed can't raise rates. We saw what happened when they slowly tried to raise rates back in 08. Now we have $250 trillion more in derivatives and a arts more unstable foundation. It's my belief that they will offer a cursory rate increase, but we won't see the fed funds above 1% as the system starts to spin out of control.
You give them a lot of credit for being smart and accurately recognizing danger. I, however, never underestimate the stupidity and willful blindness of academics.
Yes, The fed will raise rates just like Japan has consistently done over the last 25 years following the 1989 crash:
http://mcnulty.ie/images/JapanHistoricalRates.JPG
[We are all Japan now...]
Japan did that in a growing world economy.
Objects in mirror are closer than expected: NIRP is coming and so is winter
Good ... flatlines for over 20 years now at ZERO.
Dr E.
I think you're right, but why do so many here think hyperinflation will accompany super low interest rates?
You give them too much credit in thinking they can actually control and manage the ridiculously menacing monster that they've created. The shit is actually spinning out of control!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think the banks are insisting that they are completely solvent and able to take a rate hike. What else would they say if the Fed asked them? So hike away.
As predicted two months ago by Shiney, "The Fed will degrade employment numbers in the next 4 to 5 releases in order to provide cover for further asset purchases into 2015". Once consensus is embraced, expect further false jobs data to improve substantially...Under QE of course. BECAUSE THEY CAN'T STOP FUNDING THE MARKETS!!!!
I remain short SPY 200.5 w/2015 leap puts (now ITM). BECAUSE, destabilizing assets are harder to juggle and manipulate, see: Oil, Copper, bond yields and any other currency of the world, for proof.
Meh.... yeah , whatever. ISIS is not Islamic.
Yeah, that's all that matters to me now. I can now sleep well at night that it isn't BO's brothers and sisters that are carrying out the carnage...
ISIS is not Islamic.
The I in ISIS.....stands for I.
Clever.
ISIS?
Not even on my radar.
I'm much more concerned about the Enemies Within; most especially a propagandized, deluded populace which is now good with Socialism, and would empower such a destructive, empty suit, RaceMarxist frontman.
Noise, damnable noise! And I was so worried ISIL was islamic, feel better now that Fudgepacker in chief says they're not and especially glad he's having the fine folks at Wal Mart monitor my purchases for terrorist tendencies. What a complete incompetent political jerk-off he is.
JUST USE CASH!
I would be very skeptical the staff at Walmart would know what to do with that stuff.
But this is th longest stretch of uninterrupted jobs growth in history??
I hear the golf courses in Hawaii are in great shape this time of year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-EKqWAqrRQ
This is going to end well; what a relief.
Everyone freaking knows that we are in an artificial bubble, right?
Everyone knows what caused the bubble, right?
Everyone now knows that without the bubble the economy can not sustain itself, in terms in traditional metrics, right?
So let the bubble freaking continue. Just keep it going... and I think it will. No one wants it to pop during their tenure, especially BO and Yellen. IMO, Ben got out of dodge at the right time - in case 'wall street' could not be convinced to keep pumping it up.
WRONG!
I said here before the Feral Reserve big bank members have had it with Obozo a long time ago and have been preparing for this inevitable collapse they now see as the only way to get through this ordeal.
It's just like allowing an old decaying building to collapse so a new one can be built in its place.
Whatever!
Without objection then......we're shipping it to you.
BTFD Niggas!!
The traditionally accepted slogan is "BTFD BITCHES!!!!"
seen as more better because of the wonderful cadence of two strong "B" words traveling together.
the phrase comes from the smash hit Wall Street Gangstas in the verse:
Rolling with my Homies
Knockin up the dow
if you wants a get richesss
BTFD BITCHES!!!!
BTFD BITCHES!!!
BTFD bITCHES!!!
GET YOUR HANDS IN THE AIR
Gold has been following USJPY tick for tick inversely for the last three days, but as soon as USJPY drops no reaction? one coming????
Anyone care the the not seasonally adjusted number showed at 100,000 drop in unemployed?
what a big joke yall. jobs numbers up check
dollar up check
Isis is not Islamic check
stocks up check
gold down check
silver down check
Syria getting bombed check
Russia of dollar check
China of dollar check
Argentina of dollar check
Russia and Iran retaliate we see
all this make sense on why we are doing so well and the recovery is booming?????
What intrigues me is something the MSM never covers and that is job GAINS by immigrants and job LOSSES by Whites.
This researcher has been crunching the numbers for several years now documenting this:
http://www.vdare.com/users/edwin-s-rubenstein
This also pretty much tells the story:
Since 2000, All Employment Growth Has Gone to Immigrants
http://cis.org/all-tennessee-employment-growth-to-immigrants
All Tennessee's Employment Growth Since 2000 Has Gone to Immigrants; Yet, Natives Accounted for 60% of Population Growth
The long term trend on that chart is still downward. I don't really know what that means since I don't know how the stats are measured.
Interesting both NSA and SA higher than last year...
Yee recovery!!
The surprisingly weak ongoing jobless recovery - pleze use the official phrase or their will be more layoffs in the department of propaganda.
$10T and no jobs
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2486115-jobs-friday-when-bubblevision-misses-the-epic-failure-of-the-us-labor-market?source=feed_tag_editors_picks
crummy site. insists you register, asks too many questions. Insists you choose at least 5 stocks to follow even if you don't give a shit about any stocks. you won't get to read the article.
It looks like we have a tie this week.
http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue
Check out the happy insider sellers at VOYA the retirement management company after they cashed in for $865M. I's be happy too with that kind of return.
http://voya.ing.us/ingisnowvoya?utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=ING%20Brand&utm_term=ING&dclid=CMr6ndqz2cACFQQRhQodbhYArw
At the risk of coming off "irrelevant"- this needs to be brought up.
Fiscal and legislative policies are the answers to this economic junk. Not monetary policies.
As you can see, PRIVATE sector investments/GDP in the US is the weakest out of146 countries even though foreign governments own so much of the US Treasury (Fed can't print without them).
We need capital gains tax cuts, corporate tax cuts...reinstallment of Glass Stegall-no more bailouts,.
Reagan's largest employment/population was the highest in the world because he cut taxes to get the wealthy to bring their money back into the US and they had nothing better to do with it than to invest it. And it worked, it worked way better than Clintons' Gore Act.
We need to do this with INTERNATIONAL investments since the market is GLOBAL.
With that being said, somebody somewhere gave EB-5 perks to affluent aliens for rights to family greencards if they could invest in an American enterprise that should have created at least 10 jobs each.
So the Asians stepped up.
EB-5 from Chinese investors for beef slaughterhouse caught up in scandal (the US is weak on private sector investments and international monies do need to be going into our finance sector- the trouble is US corruption)
$150,000/Chinese investor IS MISSING.
http://cis.org/north/south-dakota-loses-120-million-eb-5-funds?fb_action_ids=10203453768879599&fb_action_types=og.comments
Here South Koreans were duped by Joop Bollen who collected international funds for South Dakota.
http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2014/09/11/claim-millions...
The EB-5 program allows wannabe US immigrants to donate or "invest" $500,000 in exchange for immigration perks... which Bollen used for his own company before he resigned his position. THe scandal cost South Dakota $140 million.
http://listen.sdpb.org/post/sd-lawmaker-accuses-eb-5-leader-fraud?nopop=1
Mind you, Wall Street still hasn't opened any exchange selling US STocks in Macau; China still hasn't removed barriers to the US financial sector--- Bush and Congress blocked sale of Unical to the CNOOC as a "national security concern" when Chevron bribed them to- when Asians have tried to infuse CASH FLOW IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR (not US Treasuries)... America's elected leaders mucked EVERYTHING up.
These things would have helped the private sector cash flow which results in GDP and job creation.
McCarthyism, hate towards LEGAL immigrants and racism never fixed America's problems.
Monetary policy isn't going to fix this. This problem is the result of corrupt theft and embezzlement by America's elected leaders- it's not going to be fixed by cheap loans or carry trade incentives (or lack thereof)...