Poland Says Russian Gas Deliveries Tumble By 45%; Europe To Launch Sanctions On Friday, Russia Will Retaliate

Tyler Durden's picture

Yesterday, when Gazprom was supposedly "troubleshooting its systems", we reported that in what was the first salvo of Europe's latest cold (quite literally, with winter just around the corner) war, Poland complained that up to 25% of its usual gas deliveries from Russia had been cut. Russia indirectly hinted that this was also a result of Ukraine using "reverse flow" to meet its demands, with Europe allowing Kiev to syphon off whatever gas it needs without paying Gazprome for it. It also led Poland to promptly admit it would halt reverse flow to the civil-war ridden country. Fast forward to today when Polish financial website Biznes reports that things are going from bad to worse in Russia's energy retaliation war, after Poland claimed a 45% shortfall in Russian natgas imports as of Wednesday.

Not surprisingly, Gazprom has said that is not the case, which leaves two options: either someone is lying, or the Ukraine is quietly, and illegally syphoning off gas destined for Europe.


Poland's listed natural gas group PGNiG noted Wednesday natural gas deliveries from the east 45% below the ordered level, the firm said in a Thursday press statement. Wednesday marks the third straight day when Poland claims to have received less gas than ordered from Russia's Gazprom. Poland claims that shortfall forced a shutdown of re-export to gas-strapped Ukraine and an increase in imports from other directions to compensate the loss.


"Under the Yamal contract, PGNiG has the right to collect volumes lower or in line with the maximal daily amounts contracted for particular entry points," PGNiG said. "Volumes ordered by PGNiG were below the maximal level - that is line with the contract. Nevertheless, they have not been realized by OOO Gazprom Export."


In order to make up for the missing volumes from the east, PGNiG claims to have launched supplementary gas deliveries via Lasow at the German border and via Cieszyn at the Czech border, the firm noted in its statement.


Additionally, on Thursday PGNiG launched natgas supply through the Mallnow point at the Yamal pipeline on the German border, PGNiG said.


A spokesperson for PGNiG, Dorota Gajewska, refused to indicate if the level of Russian deliveries constituted a reduction from any prior periods, reiterating only that delivered volumes are below the contractually requested level, she said in an interview for broadcaster TVN24.


On Wednesday PGNiG claimed that deliveries had fallen 20% short of order on Monday and 24% short of order on Tuesday.


The firm said it was "investigating" the reasons behind the delivery shortfall, in particular whether it is of technical or commercial nature, and said it was compensating for the volumes with imports from other directions.


On Wednesday PGNiG still hasn't received any explanation from Gazprom, the firm said.


Deliveries to PGNiG's clients are being carried out without disruption, and there is no need to tap undergroung gas storage facilities, filled to 100% of their capacity (around 2.6 bcm).


PGNiG's long-term Yamal contract with OOO Gazprom Export, dating back to 1996 and renegotiated in 2010, provides for annual natural gas imports of 10.24 bcm, drawn at Drozdowicze, Wysokoje & Polish points along the Yamal pipeline. The contract is based 85% on a take-or-pay formula. PGNiG will seek a gas price reduction during a renegotiation window that opens in November 2014.

So as the new balance of power is suddenly dawning on Europe, as is the realization that Putin does have all the leverage (as otherwise Gazprom would never suicide itself in a way as to show it can proactively cut European gas supplies, even if the recipient is a country that has been so vocally beligirent toward Russia as Poland), the Europeans have decided there is no point in waiting any longer, and as was blasted moments ago:


More from Reuters:

European leaders spoke early on Thursday and agreed to push ahead with a package of sanctions against Russia by the end of the week, due to its aggression towards Ukraine, the spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron said.


"This morning the prime minister took part in a joint call with several fellow European leaders; president (Herman) Van Rompuy, Chancellor (Angela) Merkel, president (Francois) Hollande and prime minister (Matteo) Renzi," the spokesman said.


"(They spoke) to discuss the subject of sanctions against Russia in the context of Ukraine and agreement to proceed with the implementation of the sanction package that was agreed earlier in the week."

Which means that the gloves are now fully off and Russia is content that it will be cold enough soon enough to give Putin even more of a first mover advantage, and thus negotiating leverage while the part of Europe, and all of Ukraine, shivers in the cold.

Sure enough:



In other words, Russia's staggered gas reduction, which we predicted last weekend would happen momentarily, as it has, is not a retaliation but merely a side-effect. One wonders just how bad things will escalate to if in addition to its gas Europe loses, for example, access to Russian airspace, or worse.

And the full wrap of the most recent events surrounding Ukraine and Russia, via Bloomberg:

  • EU to impose new Russia sanctions tomorrow, will lay out conditions for eventually suspending measures
  • Russia says will retaliate against new sanctions, says  they are “unfriendly policy”; may target cars, textiles: RIA
  • Ruble falls to record vs dollar
  • U.S. sees Ukraine as arena for geopolitical battles, Russian foreign minister says in interview to Itar-Tass
  • Ukraine needs to regroup, strengthen army; must open way to NATO membership, Parliament speaker tells Fokus magazine
  • Donetsk airport shelled by rebels overnight: Ukraine defense ministry
  • Gazprom may face biggest decline in European gas revenue in five years; sales to EU, source of 40% of rev., forecast to fall >10% to ~$55b this year, co. officials say
  • Putin orders war readiness test for East Russian regions:     Interfax
  • McDonald’s being taken to court by Russia’s consumer-safety regulator for allegedly understating caloric values, microbial contamination in products; suit delayed as chain defends calorie count
  • Ukraine seeking to prevent Russian cos from getting licenses to run 3G networks in planned auction

Summary: tomorrow's latest round of sanctions and countersanctions should be interesting.

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IridiumRebel's picture

Let's take up a "Jacket and Blankets Drive" for the Poles. That should help a little.

summerof71's picture

everyday for 3 years, all those ivy league diplomas going to selling /GC and buying /DX and /ES like clock work

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

russia should announce to Europe that it is cutting off all gas until europe brings the mad dogs in kiev to heel.

And of course, europe couldnt do that without saying Fuck Nuland

Manthong's picture

Less than 9 degrees C in my accursed spot in the Midwest this September 9/11 morning..

Divided States of America's picture

Like I said yesterday, the Poles are so gullible, they rather befriend the people screwing them over (NATO and US) while the same evil organizations use them as leverage against Russia.

Hey Poles, you think NATO or US will help you guys while you try to keep warm throwing wood to keep the fire alight in the trash cans! Have a cozy warm winter over there.

strannick's picture

Being America's stupid birch, getting costlier by the month. Poland always manages to pick the wrong horse, or just get saddled by the worst riders

SafelyGraze's picture

russia should route gaz through and to scotland

but only if it's an independent scotland


Patriot Eke's picture

There are Polish mercenaries fighting for Kiev in Eastern Ukraine right now.  What did Poland expect Russia to do in response?  Send them a thank you card?

indygo55's picture

Every pilot in the world should threaten to strike unless the full details of the MH17 are released immediately.

Son of Loki's picture

If my leaders feel I should starve, freeze and thirst to death for the sake of their ideological cause [and their bank accounts], who am I to disobey….


…wait a sec, let me rethink that…..

FinalEvent's picture

So comming friday is the start of the bank holidays.

Finally, my name will be there.

Mountainview's picture

How about the Polish sale back of this gas to Ukraine? At what conditions was this?

froze25's picture

I remember a Pole president that went against "Western" nwo, interest in the past. He died in a plan crash.

eclectic syncretist's picture

MOTHERF*^&ER!!!  Tell that bitch Yellin to start printing some natural gas pronto.  What??!!  We can't just print natural gas?  Damn!  Well do something about it, I've got a tee time to make.

TahoeBilly2012's picture

Polacks, welcome Tribe finances back to your Country....it's been a long time no?

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Poland, you must be mistaken about the gas deliveries dropping from 25% to 45%.  Just...

Used one of those classic HP calculators with RPN (Reverse Polish Notation), and all will be well.  ;-)

Urban Redneck's picture

It's sunny and 19C in my corner of central europe. That fact this foreplay is likely to lead to a bad case of blue balls for EUcrats in less than four months seems a world away, but looking at the august weather and the local farms, it could be a bad case of blue ballz this winter...

Savvy's picture

Calgary (Alberta) got a massive dump of snow yesterday, much of the city is without power.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Then come down to OR, where it's gonna be 85-90 F all week. 

Global Warming feels like Regional WarmingTM in the Pac NW.  Of course Ukraine has its own share of Regional Waming and Cooling.

NoDebt's picture

Obama:  Putin looks like the bored kid in the back of the class.  (Who just aced his midterm and rolls you for your lunch money every day)

Obama:  ISIS is the JV Team (Who just surprised everyone by beating the pros in a local exhibition match)

And that's just a few things he was legitimately wrong about.  Add in the outright lies (Benghazi, IRS, AP phone scandal, and, of course, Obamacare, to name a few) and you've got the perfect president for our times.  Bravo, President Stompy Feet.  Your place in history is assured.  Just not in the way you were hoping.

Oh, and you're going to lose on this Ukraine thing, too.  You could fuck up a two car funeral.  You're out of your depth.

Oldwood's picture

Wouldn't it be interesting if governments actually spread prosperity and freedom through example rather than force? I think that was supposed to be the idea of America early on, but power is never satisfied and must fall back on corruption, manipulation and ultimately force.

How many will suffer because the west had to bring western "values" to Ukraine? If our values were so impressive, so desirable, then why must we bribe and bully. This is no different than parents who in light of their own failing believe they can bully their children into becoming what they could not. These government bureaucrats see us as children (which maybe we are) and their responsibility (which it is not) to "save" like the religious zealots they are.

I'm not a religious man, but I see these ideologues as nothing but fundamentalist's who would rather see us dead than leading an impure life. They will vehemently deny the existence of any other God other than their god of self righteousness. Again, I am not religious, but I do believe in the freedom to worship whomever. These people do not. we are to worship them and only them, and if you do not you are suspect. The totalitarianism of either you are with us or against us, and they take it more seriously every day. And the test is faith. The demand is to believe, especially in the face of preposterous assertions, complete falsities and outright lies. We are to BELIEVE! or face the rath of the progressive hand of political correctness. Fall in line lest be destroyed in the fires of the main stream media. Utter not a word of derision, criticism, doubt of their godliness. Faith in the unseen, unknowable truth that all people ARE equal and that they will bring us to our knees to make it happen.

Never doubt the power of a vision, be it heaven through good works and generosity, or through the murder of millions.

GetZeeGold's picture



Thank goodness for Global WarmingTM.

Gringo Viejo's picture

Time to take an axe to the sofa. Brrrrrrr.....................

LostandFound's picture

Tyler, that picture made me laugh out loud. Cracker.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Hashtags on twitter will fix everything....

Haus-Targaryen's picture

No worries, this is already priced in. 

Ghordius's picture

remember the Polish Prime Minister's plan of an EU "single buyer" to counter the "single seller" Gazprom. Donald Tusk. Yes, the new EU Council President, or, as many like to erroneously call that appointment, "the President of the EU"

Haus-Targaryen's picture

This was another one of Tusk'S lulzy comments.  

While a single buyer sounds great -- it eliminates the possability of shitty countries who are unable to pay their bills from getting cut off independently of nations who can.  I read somewhere he was appointed because he is very "anti-Russian" -- which should make the next 6-12 months interesting. 

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Ghordo - 

Explain to me what solidarity is.  

I was talking about these gas shortages with a coworker of mine just now -- he told me that if Putin suspended Poland's gas, and would suspend Germany's if Germany gave any to Poland, he would prefer to freeze to show his "solidarity with them."  

Explain this foreign concept to me please.  I told him if this happens, then he can go to Poland and freeze there.  My Fitness Studio just installed a new Jacuzzi.  He didn'T seem to like that at all.   

Ghordius's picture

from anybody else, I would think you are pulling my leg. seriously. Yet you and others in ZH thought me some of the euro-centrism of my way of thinking

it's actually a very, very simple thing: for europeans a nation is like a family. the very word implies nativism, being "born into" it. Our German cousins are actually even more "blood-minded" about it, but they aren't alone in it

solidarity at national level... is socialism. solidarity at european level... is the opposite of war. diplomacy, but also an understanding that alone you get trashed by greater powers, be them greater interests (like energy) or superpowers. what do small fish? they form schools

this guy? there are many like him. Plenty of Europeans are willing to freeze... in solidarity. many Europeans are anyway willing to save energy at all costs, in a pinch and as a way to tackle the future

Haus-Targaryen's picture

If you are from a poor country I get why being in solidarity with wealthier countries is a good idea.  


If you are from a wealthy country -- seems like a horrible fucking idea. 

Ghordius's picture

it has actually very little to do with money, or poor or rich. so forget about money. it has a lot to do with the Romantic Ideal of The Nation. The concept of being willing and capable to suffer for others. All in all, it's perhaps very archaic and tribal, seen from the outside. It's the biggest difference between all european countries (including Scotland and Ireland) and that one outlier called England, so usually it's seen as "Continental". of course it has been misused for many wars, including the WWs

look up Romanticism. There you'll find that the German "Sturm und Drang" was one of the impulses for this understanding of how nations ought to be, for example. Remember that it was before Germany was formed, and a prerequisite to both German and Italian unifications, but as an ideal, dear to all europeans

bombdog's picture

Ah yes the perfect European citizen, as if such a person exists. Quite frightening really, you might as well be describing a new Soviet Union. No wait... you are!

We stand together in solidarity behind the bellicose decisions of our dear leaders.

Let's freeze together in solidarity; solidarity with the brave fighters in Azov, Dneiper, Donbass... Glory to the Heroes!

Ghordius's picture

I doubt there is anything you could call the "European Citizen". I'm just trying to explain why there is an existing European Solidarity... among citizens of the nation states in europe. suit yourself

Abitdodgie's picture

So let me see if Ihave this , the EU take sanctions against Russia because America told them to and so Poland steals gas from Russia to give to Ukraine who had told Russia to go f$%k themselves in the first place , and so everyone in Europe is now saving gas to help Poland out , well you cannot fix stupid . By the way I just got my summer fill delivery of gas at $1.62 a gallon and we have lots of gas .

Ghordius's picture

not quite. Poland buys. And sells to Ukraine. And the Bear is mad about it. But because it's a big bear...

it's NatGas, not gasoline

Oldwood's picture

That's probably why we see so many public demonstrations, strikes and protests. Just family reunions, right? How nationalistic are all of your Muslim immigrants? Are they going to suffer quietly along side you when the gas goes off? Europe, like America, has stockpiled many combustibles around themselves, most of which will not heat your home or run your car, but nonetheless, will ignite and burn everything to the ground with but a spark. Economic issues are worsening and while the few at the top of the pile might look out their window and see little of concern, the temperature is approaching combustion, possibly even without a spark. Simple spontaneous combustion, like the piston approaching top dead center on a warmed up diesel engine. Or is it just climate change?

Ghordius's picture

are you serious? our Muslim immigrants don't have a say on those things. And yes, our public demonstrations, strikes and protests are of a more intimate nature. That's why we don't call them riots. In fact, London, Paris and Malmö are the only three places I know of where this generalization has deviations

Oldwood's picture

So a significant portion of your population is absolutely not aligned to your "family values" and they have no say? A zombie chewing at your neck can be pretty damned intimate if you ask me. But don't worry. I'm sure everything will be fine as its all in the family, like the Manson's.

Do you forget just 60 years ago that your "family" was burning thousands in ovens, mass genocide of their neighbors and even relatives in some cases (ask Soros)? Just because it happened before you were born means it never really happened? You are seriously deluded.

Ghordius's picture

how much do you know about the various Muslim populations of Europe? Practically each country has a different situation, which aren't that easily generalized

Ghordius's picture

Poland's politicians are calling all europeans that aren't fully anti-Russian "too lenient towards Russia". This included the new EU foreign affairs gal

Remember when all this started and I was alone pointing at Poland?

from a liberal point of view, the plan is sound. After all, in any liberal free-market setup, when you sell me something, I'm at liberty to sell it further to someone else, even if that someone else is your enemy

but the Kremlin does really not like not to be able to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine. Which should give some context to the claims Russia might take a hard stance this winter

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

from a liberal point of view, the plan is sound. After all, in any liberal free-market setup, when you sell me something, I'm at liberty to sell it further to someone else, even if that someone else is your enemy

In relation to Poland and Kiev if reverse syphoning it is stealing gas from Poland and the EU in general if it has no plans to resell it back to the EU. If it does then it is stealing directly from Russia instead. Either way it is theft of resources. Doesn't matter who you planned to sell the gas to. You are at liberty to resell it afterwards if the original arrangement is fullfilled. That is how a contract/arrangement works. It is a breach of contract, simple as that if Kiev plans to resell to Poland at a discounted rate if not Poland should be pissed at Kiev not Russia here.

There is nothing free market about violating a bilaterial business arrangement by a third party especially when both the other 2 parties didn't agree to it. Forget about the politics for a second and look at it from a strictly market perspective.

MarkAntony's picture

Well, actually, he is very PRO Russian (unofficially, in private). You may not believe me, but, I met Mr. Tusk a few times while working as a consultant in Warsaw (before he became "The Premier"). He always plays both sides of the fence, however, leans very heavily East. So, this appointment is quite intriguing to say the least...

EU hedging its position??? (quietly)

Ghordius's picture

probably yes. In fact, I'd be disappointed if it wasn't so

JustObserving's picture

Obama has appropriated the right to bomb any country and yet he insists on sanctions for Russian support of East Ukraine:

Obama reiterated his policy that the US has the right to wage war against anyone, anywhere that it determines poses a threat to the “core interests” of the United States—i.e., the interests of the American ruling class.

In the closing portion of his speech, Obama insisted on the leading role of the United States in virtually every international crisis on every continent, saying, “American leadership is the one constant in an uncertain world.”

He continued, “It is America that has the capacity and the will to mobilize the world against terrorists. It is America that has rallied the world against Russian aggression…”

The quick transition from targeting ISIS to confronting Russia—the world’s second-largest nuclear power—is particularly ominous. As for Russian “aggression,” the crisis in Ukraine was provoked by US and German sponsorship of a right-wing coup backed by fascist forces.


Haus-Targaryen's picture

Today a small non-descript metal building in the Greater-Austin area was hit by a predator drone's Hellfire missle as its existance posed a "a threat to teh 'core interests'" of the United States.  

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