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Latest Scotland Poll Closes Gap Further: 49% Would Vote For Independence, 51% Against; Cable Wobbles
Yesterday's YouGov poll, which saw the "No" camp regain the lead with 52% of the vote, was said by some to be the end of the "Yes" momentum observed last weekend when the Yes posted its first majority since polling began, Then moments ago, the momentum in the momentum changed once again, with the Guardian releasing the latest Scottish referendum poll by ICM which took place between September 9-11 polling a "a representative sample of 1,000 people", and where the vote was said to be "too close to call", as the margin collapsed once again, this time shifting the momentum in favor of the Yes vote, which received 49% of the vote, and No getting 51%, however 17% of the voters are "yet to make up their minds."
From the Guardian:
Despite a week of intense political campaigning by pro-union politicians and repeated warnings from business about the dangers of independence, the poll finds support for no on 51% and yes on 49% once don’t knows were excluded.
The Guardian/ICM poll is based on telephone interviews conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, the first such survey ICM has conducted during the campaign. Previous polls suggesting that the race for Scotland could go to a photo-finish have been based on internet-based surveys.
The period of the survey not only witnessed the three UK party leaders absenting themselves from prime minister’s questions to campaign in Scotland, but also a growing rumble of news stories about the economic risks of independence: Mark Carney of the Bank of England gave new warnings over the currency, some financial institutions such as RBS signalled readiness to move their headquarters out of Edinburgh, and there have been warnings about a mortgage drought.
Despite all of this, and the most recent suggestions that supermarket prices could have to rise, everything remains to play for in the final days of the campaign, because 17% of voters in the overall sample say they have yet to make up their mind. Including them in mix, the rounded figures leave yes on 40%, and no on 42%.
The unprecedented political engagement generated by the campaign shines through in the poll, which finds 87% of respondents describing themselves as “absolutely certain to vote”, far more than the 55% who said the same thing about the next Westminster election in the most recent UK-wide Guardian/ICM poll.
And some curious breakdown by age group:
- young people are almost as engaged as their elders, with 82% of 16- to 24-year-olds and 87% of 25-34s insisting that they are 10 out of 10 sure that they will cast a vote; many will have already done so through postal voting.
- The 25-34s in particular are heavily inclined to back independence – leaning yes, by 57% to 43%.
- Respondents aged 65+ are staunch unionists, being inclined to vote no by 61% to 39%.
Commenting on the age contrast, Martin Boon, director of ICM explains – “the generational divide a crucial dividing line in Scottish politics right now: each campaign’s success in motivating the particular cohorts that favour them looks crucial to the outcome”.
And then there is gender:
- Scottish women remain loyal to the UK, by 55% to 45%, while Scottish men by contrast are, by 52% to 48%, in favour of independence.
Some final observations:
Friday’s poll also interrogates what is motivating supporters of the two camps – asking respondents to choose the two or three issues that incline them to vote as they intend. Among no supporters, feelings towards the UK are the single most important factor – named by 53%, followed by 37% who suggest that continuation of the union would be better for Scottish pensions and public services. Economic fears of separation, the principal focus of Better Together campaign over most of the course of the year, rank as less important, nominated by just 33% of nos.
On the yes side, the single most important factor are feelings about Westminster’s politics, which is named by 51%, while 40% express the hopes that independence would deliver a more prosperous future. Despite a recent emphasis on the risks of English-inspired NHS privatisation, among yes supporters feelings about public services and pensions are less important – identified as especially important in determining their decision by just 24%.
Asked “how risky” they think independence is, little more than a quarter of Scots (26%) say it represents “a huge risk”, considerably more than the mere 13% who believe that it is “no risk at all”, but less than 56% who rank the dangers as somewhere in between the two. Sticking with the UK is, not surprisingly, seen as a safer option – only 19% regard that as “a huge risk”, as against 32% who rate it as “no risk at all”. The difference between the two propositions as measured by the average scores on the five point riskiness scale (where 5 represents a huge risk) is substantial, but not perhaps as large as might be expected. The mean score for sticking within the union is 2.7, compared with 3.2 for going it alone.
Cable has wobbled on the news, although it is largely unchanged from before last night's YouGov poll was released:
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Frrreeeeedddoooom!!!! C'mon Scotland you can do it.
Thanks Kawaii. The establishment have taken a bloody nose as 50% of the country now oppose the dealings of Westminster.
Catalonia looks on with high expectations and I do not want our country to let them down. This is a movement against the status quo and everything that Zerohedge supports.
I wish you and Scotland the best of luck and hopefully you guys will celebrate my birthday in style- independence.
A 1000 person sample survey is as meaningful as a popcorn fart inside an oil tanker. Scotland, please take your independence.
The tally that really counts:
20,000,000 Scottish peasants for...
200 banksters against.
Banksters win.
(Pitchfork time.)
With a week to go we've only begun to see the scare tactics they'll use to convince the sheep to vote NO. Sadly I think a tie vote at this point means the revolution will not start in Scotland the brave.
It is surprising that the referendum is nearly 50/50 with the lead now changing hands every couple of days.
What are the odds of that? It's almost nil.
But it certainly is good for selling lots of media.
The early polls showed 'No' with a meaningful lead. Given the tendency for people to resist change I expect 'No' to win.
I'd prefer 'Yes', but 'Yes' would need a substantial margin to overcome, ahem, 'friction in the system'.
England wants Scotland's oil too much to permit loss of this asset.
If they lose the vote, there will be plan B, C, D, etc.
Iceland might offer some experienced advice on doing exactly what the global financiers strictly forbid.
What would it take to give South Carolina residents the same opportunity?
You mean what would happen if a band of terrists would plot rebellion in South Carolina? .... I doubt if there would be a vote.
William Wallace is spinning in his grave.......what a bunck of pussies.
You have the Stone of Scone....all you've got to do is say the word.
You've even got George Soros shaking in his boots.......just pull the damn trigger man!
And RBS has threatened to leave if the independence vote is passed.
That's a POSITIVE, people. C'mon this is a no-brainer.
Do it.... for the children. No wait, better yet, do it for Mel Gibson!
Once Mel takes his meds.....he's fine.....it's the getting him to take them that's the real bitch part.
Mel's far more entertaining OFF his meds, and ON a drunken bender. He still can't hold a candle to David Hasselhoff eating a cheeseburger off the floor of his living room, but Mel can hold his own.
history will absolve mel gibson.
he maybe a mental case but his anti zionist words are pure truth
Fuck RBS (Citizen's Bank)... they suck my hairy sporran. Please, someone name ONE person that likes that bank.
Start your own damned bank!
My thoughts also. Too many in Scotland are fearful for their mortgages and way of life. They are eating up this Westminster smear campaign as they have no idea what mess europe is in.
In the event of a no vote, a large percentage will say they regret their No after a year!
That's when rate rises will begin and London shows its teeth!
As a Scot I find it strange that there are still undecideds. These are voters who will decide on the day and hopefully the pro-Scottish atmosphere will inspire them.
The latest post from Armstrong is one that I believe in. London and corporations are falling over each other to bring this contest to the No but it may be too late. As a country with real resources, we would leave with a smaller debt to gdp than the UK and with the eurozone flirting with recession in France and Germany, we may even stay out of the euro to become a safe haven when it goes down!
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/11/bankers-trying-to-manipulate-el...
You have a wonderful opportunity to become the next small country that has both oil and gold (thru a banking system similar to Switzerland circa 1950). Stick it to the globalist inflationistas, and vote 'Aye' for independence!
Dump the UK. Dump the EU. Dump the Euro.
Wait, another idea: how about you guys take over the entire UK. Name the whole fucking thing Scotland. Eliminate all the UK thieves in government, write a new constitution, give yourself the right to defend yourself (aka Right to Bear Arms)...
I like that. I like it a LOTTTTT. (said like Forrest Gump would)
Re that blog post, Quote:"If Scotland stays out of the EU and UK, and it moves away from Marx and toward Adam Smith,"
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa.
unfortunately, the human fear of the unknown will probably defeat progress.
The same phenomena has idea locked most Americans. all too often progress only happens when there's nothing left to lose.
Here's the word for your comment: EXACTLY
There is definitely a push towards decentralization and taking back control from the money oligarch orcs.
Women were behind the death of America by supporting the lying terrorising Obama. They are the reason for unhappiness on Q99X2. Do not let women vote in the new Scottland until Nessy rises in Locklomann.
You have a damned good point. Women shouldn't be allowed to vote anywhere because they vote with their emotions. "Oh the black guy, yeah, let's try a black guy in office, we really gave them a bad deal as slaves. He seems like a nice guy, I like his voice." Women are fucking morons in the aggregate, with some notable exceptions. (Look I know that stings and I sound like a douche, but if it stings, you are probably one of the exceptions so shake it off and be thankful you are also not a moron, maybe.)
Even after Nessy rises from the depths, no women voting!
(I know this will never fly but it's fun to dream.)
As its been written, "It's their nature".
Apparently the consequences of a split in the union could be calamitous. The skies will fall and the seas will boil and the dead shall rise and the milk will spoil. There will be a great disturbance in the force. Duncan’s horses will turn and eat each other. Starving ravens will peck out your eyes halfway through the Great British Bake Off. Your dad will give birth to a jackal full of hornets. And in London’s last remaining DVD shop, Gregory’s Girl will quietly be re-categorised as “world cinema”.
If Scotland divorces Britain, the union jack will have to be redesigned, which is upsetting news for every prick with a union jack cushion on their stupid sofa in their stupid house. Minus the soothing, steadying blue of the saltire, the flag’s going to resemble a violent, blood-burst staining a shroud. Better to scrap it and start again with a new design that more accurately reflects the spirit of the age. I vote for a crying brown oblong.
The Queen is on the front pages, looking worried. DON’T LET ME BE THE LAST QUEEN OF SCOTLAND shrieked the Mirror, although MONARCH OF THE GLUM would’ve been a better headline. Or maybe BAH-MORAL
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/08/scottish-independen...
I for my part would suggest to leave the GB. Introduce sound money abolish central banks and then win big. Anyway who knows how many are / have been corrupted by GB "money", or promises. ...
Scotland could consider the BRICS system. That will be backed by assets and surely sounder money than what the west is using to clean windshields.
Young people voting for their futures, old people voting for their pensions. Same story everywhere.
Well, the old people think they're voting for their pensions...
I love all the threats from the global dictators. Is all Scotland has to to is become a tax heaven witth very strict bank secrecy laws, move to a asset based currency and tear up any extridition treaties and it will take off as a country. Every bank and every asset manager will call Scotland home. Hell even Barry will move there if not for the golf courses alone.
World reaction should tell all the fence sitters in Scotland everything they need to know about what their vote means. Here's one rare instance where the little guy sees his power.
There is a simple way to decide which way to vote on this one: always vote opposite what George Soros wants, because he's just out to fuck people, enslave them, and steal their money. And George Soros wants Scotland to stay under the UK jack boot.
Vote for your FREEEEEEDOM! Cut the cord! There is life after the EU.
Tell your neighbors they better NOT vote No.
So women and the elderly want more Global Socialism. Quelle surprise! Which side would you wish to stand with on a battlefield?
What the hell is wrong with those women? I thought Scottish women where supposed to be strong and independent. I guess I was wrong.
"free" birth control.
FREE SANDRA FLUKE!!!
Oh wait......she is.
It will END at 51% against. You honestly think they will let the people decide this?
True. When the people have no guns, the govt decides everything.
49% for 51% no and 17% unk, looks like good diebolt math to me 117% voted, the dead and illegals swing the vote there much like here in USA.. LOL
51% of those who are not undecided voted yes. In non-biased terms the result would be something like 42% yes, 41% no, and 17% undecided. However, these real numbers would not cause the algos to kick in.
The Scots; who cares about them? The key question; is Soros positioned correctly to make a couple large [billions that is] off the deal? Notice how all the "news flow" is aimed at pointing out what it would mean for Britain; poor Britain would lose this ... and poor Britain would lose that. Fuck Britain, they are a bunch of retards who squandered an empire for political correctness, and now have nothing but "rehypothecated" London finance but nothing else; a people who's only passion is the "English premier League" and binge drinking.
www.traderzoo.mobi
Well said. Britain/UK/"whatever the fuck they call themselves these days" are a bunch of pussies who gave up their guns. Fuck em.
1. Trade surplus
2. diversified economy - people forget that they were a main component in the industrial revolutions.
3. Sources of energy (coal etc)
4. Many countries with population about the same (5 million or so) - sweden, finland, switzerland, norway, etc...
There is no economic / business reason NOT to go independent. It comes down to emotion - and CD has written more and better than I ever could on the topic vis a vis decision making.
How can you draw any conclusions from a poll that has a 2% yes/no differential when the poll itself EXCLUDES 17% of the voters as undecided?
True. And we don't know of those polled how many will actually vote. I know the U.S. can do their share by shipping over boatloads of voters that they use over here for similar purposes.
I pray for an independent Scotland but in my gut I fear evil will win out again
I pray for an independent Scotland but in my gut I fear evil will win out again
Very informative piece by the Mises Institute on small vs. large countries in Europe and how Scotland might fare independently.
https://mises.org/daily/6878/Is-Scotland-Big-Enough-To-Go-it-Alone
Scotland has gas and oil in the North Seas in it's teritorial boundaries.
That is why they can tell Britain to fuck off and get away with it since end result is they will still use it locally including selling it to Britain. It allows them to be independent at the same time. I bet they already quietly have an agreement in place hence the use of the sterling to keep the crown and Bank of England placated if the vote succeeds to price it so they can get their skim on sales like petrodollar.
You really think they would allow the vote to happen if they didn't have the plan B in place to maintain control of the important stuff if the Scots actually do vote yes.
I personally think that the repurcussions from this, no matter how it goes, are going to be enormous. Probably there are going to be a few more bankers/politicians suicides before it's all finished. One of the best parts of this analysis was: "Second, small countries just don’t have the money to engage in truly crazy ideas. Like Wars on Terror or world-wide daisy-chains of military bases. An independent Scotland, or Vermont, is unlikely to invade Iraq. It takes a big country to do truly insane things."
It is amazing to me that people seem more willing to fight and die for freedom....than to simply vote for it.
Maybe some Braveheart reruns in Scotland for the next couple of days...?
& which bunch control the film industry?
There's a hell of a lot of good beer riding on this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA5ZpiF3TdQ seems strangely appropriate to the situation.
The royal tabloid punishing class has the tabloid soap opera fans flopping over to some of the Royals.. What happened to the feed them cake purge.
Scot-Free: Braveheart Wm. Wallace didn't have it so easy against Longshanks. Take it, it's yours. Bollix to the English
Gforce "status quo and everything that Zerohedge supports." insane comment. " First rule fight club " "second rule fight club"
I think some Scots need to sit down and rewatch Braveheart... c'mon people!
Braveheart? Oh ffs!!!
The film was utter bilge, but it was designed to wind up the less bright of my homeland's populace. The next move were are witnessing now. Let's here it for those who consider us cattle. They will inherit what is left of this radiated madhouse of a planet. ...... BTW: If anyone gets close to fatty salmond would they please puncture him. He would want it labelled 'assassination', but in reality it would be a much needed culling . Thank you.
Braveheart = Scotland to the rest of the world, mate.
FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDOM!
Yup. Google "scottish" and flip to images.
Number 1: http://mistythicket.com/ebay/scottish_great_kilt_tartan_01.jpg
"Oh do you have TV in Scotland?"
I don't know what the fuss is all about, Diebold is going to decide this in favor of the no vote and to hell with the people. You can now return to your television screen.
As an irish descendent nothing would give me greater joy in my life then to see the scots kick the fucking blood thirsty Huns back to their little sandbox of fraud and evil. Short of N. Ireland doing the same. Fuck you huns! Die a slow miserable death. If there is any pride, any spark of freedom in you scots you will vote to boot the Huns out. I wish you and your country the best!
If this is being decided along working/retired lines in another 10-15 years they'll need another go. The current boomers whether about to retire or already in god waiting room look likely to vote to preserve their wealth. They've earned final salary pensions schemes and dont want to get wet by rocking the boat.
Before long this generation will be dying out and the next generation will have little to lose as so few have a decent pension. I'm British and in favour of the Scottish staying within the Union but if I had a chance to walk away from British debt, foreign reputation, and the upper and middle classes (which has a different meaning in the UK), I most certainly would.
The UK is fucked in so many ways, they'd be foolish not to wipe the slate clean but being foolish is what got us collectively into this mess.
Polls are Bull Crap. Half of the time they are right and half of the time they are wrong, so might as well toss a coin. I hope it's a YES to show the rest of the world you can be free.
This issue isn't going away if the no's win it by a nose.
The young are staunchly pro-independence, and likely
growing even more so as time passes.
If the yes vote wins, they should dump that hag and her
vermin offspring, the house of Windsor.
Death to the concept of royalty...
What surprises me as a Scot is that anything like 50% of the population are planning to vote NO.
WTF?
But then, I left the place 20 years ago and haven't looked back. If they do vote no, I'll have to deny I was born there.
Fuck the control the world assholes....
Just enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPV0sa_sGaY
with my man and buddy, Ronnie Woods.
Throw in Anna Jacoby.
Independence!
Hey! Faggot fake president: come on down, motherfucker. We will show how a White Man fights, you Faggot Bitch! You think ISIS is bad? Hahahahahhahahahhaha!
Fuck you. You want some, Nigger? Come and get it. The White Man is Patient. You got no idea, Bitch. Me and my boys was raised with a Gun. We stalked deer from when we was 10 years old. We live in swamps. We live in the Southern jungle.
My ancestors fought British Brigands under Tarleton and Yankees under Sherman. We killed every one we could find with a US Yankee Uniform. My ancestors died in Little Roundtop, They died in Atlanta, They died in Charleston. After the Confederate War we killed Nigger Stooges. I like killing Yankees. We are still here. Bring it, Faggot Bitch. Then you will see heads on pikes. We are Guerrilla War. Asymmetric Warfare to an educated nigger like you, Bath House Chicago Faggot. A Southern Man is something you cannot defeat. You can wipe out his Army, but you will never destroy our Hatred for the Yankee Government. Like William Wallace, we Prize Freedom more than Life. You come, You Die, Bitch. I would personally cut out your intestines and strangle you with them if it were declared legal warfare. While you were still alive. Then I would really fuck you up, if it was declared like legal under the rules of war.
I was raised in the Waxhaws. Look it up. Look up Andrew Jackson, Bitch.
Fuck you. Twice.
All part of the zionist's 'Fragment Europe' strategy. What better place to start than the uk.
As ever, the nationalists have no idea they are being played. Do you really think the banksters will allow a 'free' Scotland to have a sound money system?
And please try to differentiate between the English peasantry and the establishment. If the down trodden English were voting too, the result would be a resounding Yes. So why bash them?
THE GUESTION IS
WILL THE SCOT'S BE SMART ENOUGH TO VOTE YES, OR CLING TO THE UK ANCHOR AND
WATCH OTHER EUROPE. UNION COUNTRY''''S
BREAK-OFF
Yes, the world was so much better managed when women didn't have the vote.
Aristocrats, Kings, Queens, Captains of Industry and Banking. That was a well-managed world.
Idiots.