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Oil Price Plunge? It's The Global Economy, Stupid!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The decline in the price of oil - in the face of surging geopolitical pandemonium - has been lauded as indicative of both US' awesomeness in energy independence and a tax cut for Americans... but, as the following chart suggests, there may be another - much more realistic - explanation for why oil is plunging... demand!

 

World GDP expectations for 2014 just tumbled to their lowest since estimates started...

 

Maybe - just maybe - that explains the price of oil...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:17 | 5210663 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The cheaper it gets, the more is used

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:18 | 5210668 ekm1
ekm1's picture

correct

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:32 | 5210754 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

The idiots still haven't figured out supply-side economics.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:34 | 5210761 ekm1
ekm1's picture

they have, but bank lobby propaganda is relentless and in pure panic

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:50 | 5210809 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

maybe it's because the 100 million strong FSA sits home all day eatin' twinkies and playing video games on one 50 inch LED TV, while watching Jerry Springer on their other 50 inch LED TV, while simultaneously shoving their head as far up Kim Kardashean's big fat fucking ass as far as they can possibly get it searching for their new 600 dollar iDiot phone that they bought on "credit".

No time to drive around and use gas...

But the pizza dudes are burning plenty of gas driving around feeding the FSA's fat asses!!!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:57 | 5210905 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Honestly, that beats the fuck outta working.

Well, not sure about the Kardashian part.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:18 | 5210998 max2205
max2205's picture

No it's the fed killing Russians like when they invaded Georgia

But Bush was in charge then.....

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:38 | 5211108 Malachi Constant
Malachi Constant's picture

Russia can't wait for the oil prices to fall, because with high oil prices banks are not even considering loans to any other sector of the economy. Russian economy is distorted because of high oil prices, they know it, they know what to do when it changes, and they look forward to it.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:45 | 5211145 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I would think this is not good for Russia. So much of their economy is based on oil and gas sales ... don't see any way it is positive and in fact see it as a direct attack by the Petrodollar against the ruskies.

How am I wrong?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:12 | 5211690 Badabing
Badabing's picture

I call it the ISIS discount!
Selling stolen oil in the MI.
They must work for whoever wants a strong $.

No sarc.

Bankers use down arrow

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 00:54 | 5213416 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

this also means lower production costs for precious metals

$100 oil / $1300 gold is same same as $90 oil / $1170 gold.  so dont freak out at the gold drop - it hasnt effectively dropped under wholesale price (unlike uranium)

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 04:09 | 5213566 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

There is some correlation but it isnt the whole answer

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 08:38 | 5213686 Ronaldo
Ronaldo's picture

Dollar strength.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:57 | 5211209 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I hope you're right. It's certainly true they need to invest more in themselves; especially in their own industrial sector, and I hope they do. I'm Rootin for Putin !

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:28 | 5211330 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Graph of historic US gasoline prices, inflation adjusted:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation%20Adjuste...

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:01 | 5211513 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Graph of historic US gasoline prices, inflation adjusted:"

And look how that line changed after we reached our domestic Peak Oil event in 1970.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:03 | 5212356 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

El Oregonian

This has nothing to do with idiots and very little to do with supply-side economics.

 

 

Oil plunge is because of Light Tight Oil (LTO).

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:15 | 5212407 Shocker
Shocker's picture

As the economy slows , oil prices head down. But the devaluing of the dollar keeps oil prices high

Job Situation: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

-

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:47 | 5212504 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

That ....plus the increased cost of getting dirty tar sand oil from Canada in shape to do anything with....even before it's transported to the U.S.

And light, tight crude in the shale play is the same.  Light and tight ain't Light Sweet Crude.  That's why that shit blows up everytime a tanker car derails on its way to a refinery to be made into sweet crude. It's VERY volatile.  That's an extra cost.

Just because the absolute number of barrels is up ( and by the way....we STILL haven't reached the historical domestic peak in 1970) does not mean that shit is cheaper to extract and massage chemically into something useful.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 23:05 | 5213219 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

Factoring in the cost of rail transport, the tar sands oil becomes unprofitable at $85-90/barrel.  Can anyone say bust?

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 00:21 | 5213352 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Oil boy: Do not try and understand the market price of oil. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth.

Neo: What truth?

Oil boy: There is no market.

Neo: There is no market?

Oil boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the oil market that is broken, it is the Rothschilds spooning us and using oil as lube.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 02:36 | 5213516 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Fracking firms can borrow unlimited fresh fiat to frack more up and cover cash-flow. Resulting in production that would not be possible w/o extra-market mechanisms. Someday, a market could return with these frackers getting crushed under debt.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 16:32 | 5212149 malek
malek's picture

Now please once more with Shadowstats inflation adjustments

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:42 | 5211122 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

There are no more markets, so there is no more law of supply and demand.  The price of oil went down, because the folks with the printing press said "Down."  It's a political decision aimed at Russia and quite possibly Saudi Arabia.

Just letting everyone know who is holding the strings.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:45 | 5211148 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

I just pulled my H2 out of storage...I'll do my share to support higher prices!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:28 | 5211338 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

tell me about it...I have an '88 Grand Wagoneer...gets 6 miles/gallon.  It's not an every day driver for sure, but it'll swig down a 20 gallon tank in no time at all.  Thing is awesome though...total beast!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:52 | 5211466 indygo55
indygo55's picture

The guy up the street has been trying to sell his H1 for a while. Now THAT's a beast!! I might make him an offer.

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:09 | 5211564 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

We all need to do our part to help offset the developing ice age.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:48 | 5211175 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

aimed at Russia by Petrodollar with the assistance of Saudi Arabia.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:32 | 5211074 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Externalities (the labor opportunity cost to society, the debt and liabilities, and resource usage) aside, it's as George Carlin said - (paraphrased) show me a slob who jerks off all day and I'll show you a guy who's not hurting anyone.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:14 | 5211270 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Pretty much. The pentagon has the largest workforce on earth and by all accounts most of them work very hard. Joe sixpack at GS, JPM, BAC etc. also work very hard. Those IDF soldiers were working overtime killing kids in gaza, drone operator shifts are insanely long...hell, even i work very hard to no worthwhile end.  

Hardwork..overrated? 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:05 | 5211541 tvdog
tvdog's picture

You can work your ass off for minimum wage and only enrich the 1%. Who needs it? The protestant ethic has been used as a tool of exploitation, and younger people don't fall for it any more.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 16:00 | 5212047 Wait What
Wait What's picture

dang, bro. you just blew my mind. i'm about to go quit my job... all those years of education, all those years of hard work... just to find out i'm a 'tool of exploitation'

i'm gonna go cry in my beer at the local pub... this work thing is over-rated and its a 70 degree friday afternoon (with a light offshore breeze). there's so much hot tail running around today, picking up some is bound to lift my spirits. ding, ding, ding. there's the market bell...

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:29 | 5211342 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

 

NotApplicable,

 

I just can not wait to see to food distribution to diminish with drought and dollar illness.

 

Those who have not, can not, do not know how to, WORK; become hungry.

 

It will be a big street party.

Sadly I will miss the whole show as I do not own any television poison box.

I will surely hear... the gunfire. Thankfully not mine, just those hunting... pizzas.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:30 | 5211061 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

If Uncle Sugar is stupid enough to pay you to sit at home and get lots of free shit then why the fuck not , the stupid people are the ones that are still working , you don't need to they can just print money ,as much as they want

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:41 | 5211118 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

There is a serious answer to that: life is meant to be lived and enjoyed...not much joy in sloth but doing what you do well is rewarding.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:51 | 5211186 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Like jerking off all day?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:59 | 5211213 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

In your case, yes.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 20:16 | 5212780 El Crusty
El Crusty's picture

Skipped "left arm day" at the gym?

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 02:42 | 5213523 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Old time ZH, someone described "the Stranger". What you do is you lie on your arm until it goes to sleep. Then you jerk-off with it.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:43 | 5211132 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

This is the intended mentality, I think, and maybe it's true for a lot of people on the lower end, who are possibly just as happy collecting say $1500/month in social welfare as they were making 2500/month working (these are purely fictitious numbers, btw).  But if the net benefit to the upper 10%, and particularly the upper 1% or .1% is say, a 50% increase in their income, then whatever the nominal cost, it's well worth it.

 

So this winds up being a 'win' for everybody involved, even though its sustainability seems dubious, and it seems morally indefensible.  If a majority of unskilled people, for whom jobs no longer exist, can be bought off for a minimal amount of 'free' stuff while the wealthy prosper even more, this is probably the end game.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:49 | 5211172 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I did the math once on ZH to flat-out carry 100MM people on the government dole.  It wasn't entirely out of line.  More than we're spending now, but certainly do-able with a little help from the Fed's printing presses and government borrowing at 2-3% rates.

I don't think it's just the intended mentality.  I think it is the current reality.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:14 | 5211271 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

I see lots of people pretty content to receive subsistent, but FREE, stuff from the gubmint agencies. they'd rather sit/stand in line for free phones, ebt cards, etc then look for work. It's a whole culture now, 80+ million merikans strong.

Anyone see the movie, "Precious?"

True, they show a 'diverse' family in the movie followin gthe FSA life generation after generation, but there's plenty of white peeples doing the same. It's infectious, it seems.

Their attitude is, "Why should I work?"

It's a 180 degree turn from the traditional pride and satisfaction people felt with the hard work, so-called, "Protestant Ethic" where industriousness was rewarded with a nice life, community esteem and great personal satisfaction.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:28 | 5211335 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Suppose I'm a 'capitalist captain of industry' and I own a factory, and I'm considering some strategies

- I can automate production, lay off employees, and socialize the cost of paying them 1500/month in benefits

- I can keep the employees, pay them 3000/month out of my pocket, but live in a society where people are gainfully employed, productive members of society (but only if everybody else makes this choice, otherwise I'm not competitive and am soon out of business).

 

hmmmm, what to do...

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:54 | 5211478 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

People are superfluous. Way too many of them in the world, straining resources and totally unnecessary in an automated production industry. Answer- mass depopulation. Suddenly, plenty of resources for everyone. Keep the technical know-how, lose the deadbeats. Let's stR with the bankers and PNAC

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:31 | 5211647 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Remind me never to work for you, Al.  Sounds almost like you care more about running a successful business than you do about me.  You just don't recognize how special and unique I am (which entitles me to suck money out of your pocket, whether I do anything productive for you or not).

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:56 | 5212038 L3G4CY
L3G4CY's picture

It is more that people seems to care more about them self to their business who hire them. People get bored at job anyway and got their paycheck anyway so production suffer at the end.

 

Business are there for profit and worker for paycheck. The connection, that synergy between both is very rare these days, especially in the west countries. You should go see in China how the workers are motivated for few pennies a day. It's like going back in time... but they already start to wake up aswell.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:41 | 5212480 actionjacksonbrownie
actionjacksonbrownie's picture

This is how it's done around here:

 

Go on disability, get free apartment, free smokes, free satelite, free phone, free internet, free clothes, free food, free public transit, free healthcare, and best of LOADS OF FREE TIME (with no asshole boss lookin' over your shoulder).

 

Then, during your "free time", place a few "cash plants" in strategic locales throughout the neighborhood, shovel a couple drives in the winter, trim a couple hedges in the summer. Then, in the rest of your "free time", sit around outside with your buds, drinkin' beer and smokin' what ya brought, and laugh at all the schmucks drivin' by each day goin' to and from work and stressing over payin' the bills.

 

Most people work the asses off at lousy paying jobs and even working shiftwork, and have less at the end of the month than your typical "gamer".

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 02:46 | 5213525 conscious being
conscious being's picture

What?.. No free weed?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:41 | 5212482 NoPension
NoPension's picture

Friday, September 12, 2014... 4:30 pm, somewhere in rural Maryland.

Yours truly decided to walk into the bank, to make a deposit, instead of drive thru.
The lobby was packed with Hispanics. They were neat, polite, and some were at the counter signing 10-15 checks. So those inside where the tip of the iceberg . I don't know if they worked at local packing house, chicken plant or nursery. But all of those local businesses are pretty much 100% Hispanic. A good chunk of that change goes south of the border. They are the ones working. And probably,by the looks of things, are grossly undercounted.

This is not commentary on right or wrong, good or bad. Just my "man on the street" observation.

Oh, there are jobs, alright. But native born ain't gittin' any. And slowly, but surely, the wages have been driven lower. And now the country is hooked on it. I once argued that the excuses for imported,illegal labor are EXACTLY the same excuses made for slavery, and I stand by my contention.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 02:47 | 5213527 conscious being
conscious being's picture

You can't have open borders and a welfare state. Its just not possible.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:36 | 5211667 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"... "Protestant Ethic" where industriousness was rewarded with a nice life, community esteem and great personal satisfaction."

I can remember that time, about 60 years ago; things looked hopeful then.  http://www.historyorb.com/events/date/1954 Note Muslim Brotherhood already in the news. It seems like we're paying now for those relatively happy days.

With challenge to the dollar peg, things are unsettled and will be until shakeout, whatever that will look like. No telling what things will be like after that. U.S. days of high glory may be done... seems that they must be, but we'll see.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:37 | 5211385 robobbob
robobbob's picture

ding ding ding. we have a winner.

Contrary to the demagoguery, the 1%ers are behind almost all marxists/socialist/fascist systems for that very reason.

what the FSA doesn't know is that after the elites feel sufficiently secure in their consolidation of power, they will be an unsustainable and expendable group. And expended they will be.

The elites won't even have to get their hands dirty. Just sit back, frustrate any attempts at prevention or problem solving, and let malthusian mechanics do the rest. Then show up in the aftermath and blame it all on the victims.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 02:50 | 5213530 conscious being
conscious being's picture

I would not say useless. Power in Paris for a long time rested with he who controlled the mob. Same in Rome before that. The mob can be aimed like a weapon.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:38 | 5211390 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Abitdodgie

 

Such freedom. 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:37 | 5211962 Uncle Sugar
Uncle Sugar's picture

But it's for the children

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:22 | 5211613 petkovplamen
petkovplamen's picture

What are YOU complaning about, they ARE supporting the economy by buyng twinkies, TVs, and phones. Guve them MORe money and they will buy even more stuff, thus creating MORE demand! THey ARE great for the economy~! 

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 00:53 | 5213417 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

"maybe it's because the 100 million strong FSA sits home all day eatin' twinkies and playing video games on one 50 inch LED TV, while watching Jerry Springer on their other 50 inch LED TV,"

Dang! Jerry Springer is still on TV? What channel, dude?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:45 | 5210812 Headbanger
Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:05 | 5210943 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

nice link, thanks headbanger

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:31 | 5211073 magnaman
magnaman's picture

$9.733 a gallon here in the new to be "Principailty of the (former) United Kingdom"

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:35 | 5211092 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

So about 8 bucks per gallon in taxes. Wow! Your roads must be awesome. 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:03 | 5211231 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

They're awesome, alright. As soon as you get off the main highways you'd think you were in rural Ohio in 1888.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:46 | 5211425 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

That covers more than roads. Health Care for example.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:02 | 5211519 Overfed
Overfed's picture

And top-flight healthcare I'm certain it is!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 16:48 | 5212201 Not Goldman Sachs
Not Goldman Sachs's picture

Obviously dental care as well.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 16:48 | 5212206 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

makes no difference, the cost is still the cost.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:12 | 5211578 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Not going to argue; and yes, I've been there.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 22:55 | 5213191 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

That's a friggin war crime in my book. Energy prices in the USA are absolutely ridiculously cheap AND FALLING. "It takes a lot of energy to get energy" and simply put the USA is swimming in it. If this Tesla battery is the real deal then the storage issue will have been solved. In theory the amount of grid power that could be generated by roof top solar in the USA is absolutely enormous. Talk about "we'll leave the lights on." (And those lights do provide heat btw.)

The next big boom in my view will be (small scale) hydro power. Once consumers become producers of electricity the value of base load will soar...even though prices will fall the amount of energy available will...and in fact is...soaring. While the US economy still does not reflect this "new normal" the US dollar sure is starting to.

Having said that...the I-phone six still sucks as it is not a net power producer. Phuck you Tim Cook.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:01 | 5211220 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You're going to hurt your keyboard like that, you know. Your avatar always makes me cringe a bit.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:32 | 5211353 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Nice to see that California is enjoying the full benefit of their special legislation.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:00 | 5212351 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

This has nothing to do with demand; but because of shale oil… which is not real oil.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:34 | 5210763 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

oil tankers are all full.  eventually the specs will be dumping as pain mounts.  just like 2008.  oil doesnt belong over $60.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:49 | 5210837 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Live by debt, you die by debt.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:15 | 5211276 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Good point. "There is always demand...but from whence comes final demand?" Keynes said the Government. This does not appear to be the case however even though Governments are by far the largest consumer of the goo.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:51 | 5210857 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

back in 2009 or 2010 it came out that JPM (one of the bastards taxpayers bailed out via TARP, opening FR discount window, FASB 157) had a tanker filled with oil docked in Malta ... doing its part to screw j6p by driving up price.

 

No doubt all of wall street in on this action

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:16 | 5211865 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

mastered via Glencore

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:51 | 5211184 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

doesn't "belong?"

most experts understand the give and take of energy and the economy but nothing will stop the diminishing supply and overall ever increasing cost to produce it. Take a look at the industry's recent investment costs relative to the increase in production.  

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:56 | 5211758 kill switch
kill switch's picture

When people are out of work and collecting they drive more. Normally your car would be sitting in the company parking lot all day.....Who the fuck knows? with all the shit going on in the ME oil should be $225 a barrel...and the utter nonsense of U.S. oil independance WTF!!! Don't forget GDP is measured in mall trips.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:23 | 5212437 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

"The idiots still haven't figured out supply-side economics"

THE IDIOTS have figured out supply side economics, that's why they have completely manipulated all aspects of the so-called free market to work entirely in ther favor. How long they can continue remains to be seen but until then dont expect for anything to make sense. Bad news is good and Good news is even better

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 21:32 | 5212993 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Yo, El organ

"The idiots still haven't figured out supply-side economics."

actually, the idiots don't know shit about economics,

They do, otoh, know about political manipulation.

- Ned

[and that is why Truman and Our Dear President wish to have a single handed economist]

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:34 | 5210762 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Not sure about the correctness of that.  My dick is free, but doesn't see the amount of use it truly deserves.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:39 | 5210780 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

I feel your Pain.  Blue Dress, Blue Dress, where's the Blue Dress.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:24 | 5211314 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

I love it when a plan comes together! Short  the rips!

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 15:33 | 5214292 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

BullyBearish    The cheaper it gets, the more is used

-----

ekm1    correct

----

Still using your tail to wag the dog I see. You are not always correct in this assumption. During the Great Depression this didn't happen. Prices declined and so did consumption. Industrial production declined until the elites had to go to war.

Just because a price goes down, one does not always consume more. I fill my tank up with gas whether it is $3.50 a gallon or $4.00 a gallon. The tank only holds so much. I can't fill it more. And just because it is a little cheaper, I don't decide to drive across the country.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:21 | 5210684 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Less people are able to take vacations. I live on the east coast of Florida, traffic down here gets less and less each summer, and also markedly less boat traffic on the water. People just can't afford it in this 'recovery' and boats are expensive as shit to fuel and maintain. If you were so inclined, some good deals on them can be found. The only group that hasn't had a big drop off is the snowbirds who come down here for the winters, typically older retired people with pensions. The only ones not greatly affected by all this.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:36 | 5210764 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Pensions??? Hahahaha!!! These luciferian goblins will consume those also!!! hahahahaha.....

 

Repent, and prepare.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 10:32 | 5213813 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Social Security. Talk about "pro-savings." With 10 years of nothing but inflation folks over the age of 62 still have dollars. Can they live on a dollar a day? I say yes. One acre of land is sufficient and a cash only economy.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:35 | 5210766 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Nahhh.. It's moar like nobody has a job to drive to anymore now!

And no jobs mean no lunch breaks at McDonald's either.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:20 | 5211296 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

McDs sales plunged in merika first half this year. Partly due to poor management many say but also less foot traffic due to economy, just like Walmart. Add that to their devastating expired meat problem in Asia and even their management issued an earnings warning, mostly blaming it on a slow economy.

For that matter the Dollar Store and Container Store also issued bleak warnings about the reminader of 2014.

When peeples cannot afford the "Dollar Menu" and the Dollar Store, you know we're in deep doo doo.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:46 | 5211416 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

 

 

 

Look at the Baltic Dry Shipping index.

There is Nothing, ZERO, nada, being shipped for the holiday gift season.

The U.S.S. MERICA is going D

                                               O

                                                    W

                                                         N

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:10 | 5211566 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Wouldn't raw materials (Baltic Dry) need to be shipped by June to get manufactured goods in stores by Christmas?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 16:02 | 5212054 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Holidays?

 

Stores are in Panic Mode; they’re already putting out not only their Halloween stuff out but also their Thanksgiving items and even friggin Christmas stockings and crap [if I may still use that verboten word, ‘Christmas” and be politically incorrect]!

 

Traditionally stores showcase their Xmas stuff the Monday after Thanksgiving, but they are seriously desperate now. That’s what I see ‘on the ground’ and in their numbers. Profit margins [if any] are squeezed to the max.

 

There’s never been a worse time then now to be in retail,” is what our local store manager says.

 

I’m giving all my friends and siblings a Lump of Coal for Christmas to display my optimism in the economic recovery. Luckily, coal is pretty cheap right now ... pounded down by the global warming crazies.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 12:44 | 5214042 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

The "economy" is dead.  No debat'n that.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:37 | 5211696 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

HB, oh there are plenty of jobs...Haven't you heard? You just need nine of them in order to pay half your monthly nut! ITS TIME for the 1% to feel the pain we've all been experincing for the last 6 years! BTW, we can all expect the Scotish vote to go "NO". Ain't no way the oligarchs will allow a clean vote. Expect a bounce next week from the results of that fraud...A bounce to short into.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:10 | 5210957 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Traffic is less and less in Florida because....

 

well, who wants to go to Florida?

 

haha..  just kidding.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:32 | 5211078 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

The police in Miami Dade are so freindly they cannot wait to meet you.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:36 | 5211098 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

"typically older retired people with pensions. The only ones not greatly affected by all this."

... yet.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:31 | 5211354 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Yep, older people with pensions are not affected yet. Unless they worked for Detroit.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 20:20 | 5212794 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

To clarify that would be .gov pensions for the most part, to clarify further tax payer funded pensions backed by absolutely no productive endeavor eg: leech pensions...

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:24 | 5210703 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Seems to be the opposite when it comes to government.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:26 | 5210710 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

remember when they asked obama about high oil prices? his response - its the strong economy stupid

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:26 | 5210712 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

"The cheaper it gets, the more is used"

That's.  What.  She.  SAYS!!!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:32 | 5210755 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Ahhh, yeah Bob, I'll take the red one... red one with the Hemi V8.  Cool.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:47 | 5211733 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Hell Cat

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:43 | 5211993 ceilidh_trail
Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:26 | 5210713 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Saudi production cut announcement in 4, 3, 2....

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:01 | 5210925 ekm1
ekm1's picture

they already did so yesterday

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:30 | 5211064 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

They might go to negative production to keep the price up if necessary. Anything is possible in this bizzaro rigged upside down world.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:19 | 5211290 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

7 million barrels a day. "That ain't shit" in the New Normal.

How do you make more money by producing less again?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:32 | 5211357 quadratic_equation
quadratic_equation's picture

Producing less will drive prices up.  it's supply and demand.  If the world produces 100 billion barrels per day and the world uses 90 billion per day the price is cheaper because there's a glut but if production was reduced below 90 billion barrels and the uses remain the same, there will be a competition and prices will be bid up in the market.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:35 | 5211369 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Well, the U.S. has been doing its part. Libyan production is, what, 10% of what it was under Khaddafy? And Iran is sanctioned to try to keep that oil off the market. Iraq oil exports are down due to ISIS.

Who else does the U.S. need to bomb to support the oil price? Russia? Saudi Arabia?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:34 | 5210760 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

The new CME rule 575 might have some effect. It was announced 2 weeks ago and takes effect Monday. It's possible that the price is reflecting real markets, as opposed to HFT dominated broken markets. Time will tell in a couple of weeks if 575 is causing this and the rise in UST long term rates.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:33 | 5211080 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Not exactly but the cheaper it is, the more spendable income is left to boost the rest of the economy.

Actually, what could save our economy is that 40 dollar a barrel oil that's pumped north of Saudi Arabia!!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:07 | 5211251 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Nice chart with the article. As I've said so often; there will be no growth. growth was then, this is now; growth is over.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:25 | 5211329 quadratic_equation
quadratic_equation's picture

That's what you think but the other side of it is insdustries are cutting back and using less energy which means laying people off.  Fuel may be cheaper in your standpoint but to the others in the laid side they won't have the income to buy the cheaper fuel.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:54 | 5211475 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Bubble inversion.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:31 | 5211352 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

The EIA charts show gasoline consumption has dropped for years. 

IN 2003 IT WAS 60 MILLION GALLONS A DAY

CURRENTLY IT IS 20.7 MILLION GALLONS A DAY

THE GASOLINE MARKET FOR REGULAR IS 1/3 OF WHAT IT WAS 10 YEARS AGO.

Go look yourself : http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M

You charge 25$ for a hamburger and sell 1/4 of the number of hamburgers.  This is lemonade stand level economics.  Double the price of gasoline and half the sales. They have hit the diminishing return threshold.

 

 

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:33 | 5211361 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

Frig!! Hamburgers I have to go buy one from the Beach Burger next door their just too good to pass over.. The Temporary Foreign Worker is half hot.  Should I bang it?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:02 | 5211522 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

Which half?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:38 | 5211391 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Hasn't that chart been debunked repeatedly on ZH? Refiners don't run gas stations any more; they've sold off their retail outlets.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:06 | 5212382 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

cnmcdee,

You're spreading wrong information.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 04:30 | 5213572 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

that chart is grossly misleading. here is the one you should be looking at:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTUPUS2&f=A

consumption down around (10%) from the peak. we are about where we were in 1979 and 1999.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 13:33 | 5211355 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

BullyBearish

 

 

Only to increase national stockpile for WW3.

Increase in gasoline export as 2009 readily showed.

Where is your S/, cuz it gotta be.

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 14:20 | 5211607 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Only if you need to get somewhere, like work or the store...

I've seen the numbers of those no longer doing the first, and frankly, there's nothing really new that is worth buying.

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:32 | 5211944 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Wow...How many dollars does it take for the Fed algos to cut Dow, S&P, Naz and Russell losses in half (.25%) in 25 miniutes, on a Friday???? Because we all know how anxious everyone is to buy the all time high in these indexes...Selling us the perception must be worth the cost.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:47 | 5212004 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

It's the dollar stupid

Jeez duh

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:17 | 5210665 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Unpossible!!!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:18 | 5210667 ekm1
ekm1's picture

There is no such thing as 'lack of demand for energy'.

 

Zerohedge is simply spreading out Keynesianism lunacy

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:23 | 5210695 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Yes, moar fracking debt.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:40 | 5210784 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

Agree. With CME rule 575 taking effect Monday, I suspect there is a growing lack of demand for financial paper which causes a reduction in asset inflation. Anyway, this is what I hope occurs. Change in demand for oil is rediculous unless price changes by large amounts. Demand over the short run is almost 100% inelastic at any price.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:01 | 5210926 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

There's infinite demand for everything. However, that is not the same demand as is being discussed here, as it is demand based upon willingness to pay a market price for something.

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:27 | 5211049 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Wrong. No matter the price, one can only consume so much.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:40 | 5211116 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Who said you had to consume it? Buy it, save it, sell it later.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:04 | 5210937 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

I think you meant Kinetic Lunacy.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:30 | 5211068 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

CME rule 575 is a day late and (no pun intended) a dollar short.  This is something that should have been considered as part of the original trading rules from way back.  If it it just to heel HFT's then it is pretty late; they've sucked all the available capital out of this bitch some time ago.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:18 | 5210669 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Fucking Plunge? It still costs way to much at the pump..WTF!

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:20 | 5210678 ekm1
ekm1's picture

exactly. This is just a statistical drop. Nothing meaningful as far as real economy

 

Oil at $50 is real help and it will get there inevitably

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:29 | 5210734 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Maybe, but would be tough to support the marginal production that we're now seeing (and enjoying) from unconventional means.  Drop the ppb to 50, and we'll see a huge supply deficit as there will be tons of shut-ins.  

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:35 | 5210765 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Not so. Costs will be lowered also.

Government will provide rebates

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:51 | 5210847 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

"Hi! We're from the Gubbermint and we're here to help.

We are introducing a new tax/ hiking an existing tax in order to subsidize oil industry tackling unusually low crude oil prices.

Thank you for your attention [serfs]!"

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:52 | 5210860 ekm1
ekm1's picture

All costs are labor costs, assuming environmental impact is tolerable

Gov will simply tax them less and less and less

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:59 | 5210912 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

Paper < Energy, Labor, Knowledge

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:12 | 5210965 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

"Gov will simply tax them less and less and less"

Yes, on account of increasing some other taxes and imposing new ones. 

Government is a cancer, but you just don't get it, do you statist boy?

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:32 | 5211072 donsluck
donsluck's picture

In my experience all human interaction involves politics. Government is part of the human condition. It's more like hair than cancer. It certainly doesn't kill the host (as evidenced by the continuously increasing human population and life expectancy.)

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 12:47 | 5211157 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

I beg to differ. Government, once constituted, tends to grow in all ways possible (workforce, budget, lust for power, to name a few). As history teaches us, during that process government slowly sucks all life out of the proles, usually by currency devaluation or evergrowing taxes, or both,  untill the entire society implodes. Humans have short memory...

Government IS cancer!

 

[Edit] I didn't junk you.

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 09:56 | 5213771 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

ThirdWorldDude,

 

Ignorance IS the cancer!

 

Spreading nonsense propaganda labeled as fact IS the virus!

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 18:14 | 5212404 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

ekm1,

Where do you learn these things?

 

It takes 182 new wheels drilled per month at Bakken just to keep production flat.

 

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:52 | 5210852 toady
toady's picture

Nah, price per barrel can drop to nothing and they'll still be+$3 at the pump. Gotta pay for all those +$100 barrels sitting in tankers.

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 11:54 | 5210870 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Not so. Price drop will trigger derivative implosion, margin calls.

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