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Retail Sales "Ex-Autos" Growth Slowest Since January
Retail Sales rose 0.6% in August - precisely as expected - with July revised from 0.0% to +0.3% but Ex-Autos the +0.3% growth, which matched the revised July number, was the slowest since January's "harsh weather" impact. The 'control group' (ex food, auto dealers, and building materials) missed expectations at +0.4% vs +0.5% exp slipping to its slowest growth in 3 months. Under the surface it appears the gains in sales are driven mostly by a 1.5% rise in auto sales - as more subprime credit is loaded onto the US consumer.
Ex-Autos, sales slipped to its slowest since January:
As the headline growth was driven largely by Auto Sales...
The silver lining is that retail sales rose in virtually all, or 11 of 13, major categories, with just department stores and gas stations seeing a decline:
Finally, here is the retail sales control group on a Y/Y and M/M basis, which feeds into the GDP calculation:
So how long until the "harsh snowfall" crushes this fragile growth once again?
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A big shift is occurring in what consumers are buying. Recently we are witnessing a shift from general consumer goods to more purchases of autos and healthcare. The first quarter GDP just came out down 1% yet these two sectors have been outperforming the economy.
If indeed online and auto sales are roaring up double digits at the same time healthcare spending has increased 4.2% it is only fair to assume small business and someone else is getting their ass kicked. Interestingly, this is all occurring as the government continues to pour out billions of dollars each month in student loans, many of these loans will never be repaid. This can be viewed as more proof we are on the wrong path, more on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/consumption-of-autos-healthcare-a...
Exponential economic and monetary growth forever.
Substrate deletion stops the presses.
Which?
Ex-full time workers have little spending cash anything including ex-autos.
.....or something like that.
Git them Christmus sales started early for dat ro-Bust consumer!
OK, now about those 3.5% real growth forecasts. "Can we talk?"
i got an idea.....maybe we should start a war to distract and confuse the masses and....
"Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences, but not for price."
Just so everyone is clear, that means you can put a deep and abiding trust in these numbers.
Recently we are witnessing a shift from general consumer goods to more purchases of autos and healthcare
Because 8 years of this shit has finally made people treatably ill. They need a car that can reliably get them to the doctors' or hospital
Ah, the echo boom of the Cash for Clunkers program.....replacing those cars that have worn out.
Other than that, it's litlle business as usual.
Yeah those cars are five years old now with many having over 100,000 miles on the clock by now.
But I'm still happy with my 12 year old car and 10 year old truck
Our two 8 year olds are in excellent condition. Amazing what happens when one just takes care of things rather than think in terms of throwing them away. They'll really last a lot longer. Shucks! You mean it's the Indian and not the arrow?
Keep in mind those were pre-bankruptcy GM cars, many of them (when they were built, not necessarily when they were sold). You'd be lucky to get five years out of them. My brother did a cash-for-clunkers trade for a Pontiac G6 (trading an old Geo Metro, if I recall correctly). Stupid high money for a car he nearly had to push onto the lot. Called me raving about the "deal" he just got. Then reality....
1. That $4,500 subsidy was treated as taxable income so he got a nasty surprise the following April 15th.
2. He owned the car for about 18 months before he couldn't stand it any more and got rid of it. EVERYTHING on that car had problems. Spent more time in the shop than on the road.
The G6 was a turd on wheels.
Cash for Clunkers was the most destructive program ever for the American car buyer. It destroyed a large chunk of the used car inventory which a lot of middle class Americans rely on for transportation.
The idiots who fell for this scam were duped into 60 to 96 month financing on a car that they were underwater on the secong they drove it off the lot.
'Merikkka!
Algos (or somebody) don't seem to like. Futes down.
Cause Treasury yields spiking higher
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_YEAR/charts?ma=1&maval=50&u...
Is 'more sub-prime credit' being 'unloaded onto the consumer' -- or is it really being unloaded 'onto the TBTF banks'? I suspect that any toxic auto loans will be bundled and packaged and sold to pension funds or dumped by the TBTF banks onto the Fed.
The average term on a subprime auto loan in the 2nd quarter was 71.2 months. Here comes the repos !
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/11/stressed-borrowers-rattle-resurgent-subprime-lending-industry/?_php=true&_type=blogs&ref=business&_r=0
That's what I am seeing. "Jingle mail for cars." Everyone's credit has been destroyed by the Bailout Tycoons...now we're entering a double dip recession.
Could be worse...we could be Europe.
SHOULD be Europe actually...
Were these purchases made with saved cash or bank credit? I'm assuming credit. So, tell me, is that really a positive for the economy or is it a drag?
Better tag this guy as a trouble maker.
I call full BS on this one. Don't see any real evidence of solid auto sales in August. Quite to the contrary, the few sources I look at that are not inherently biased (like government reports and automaker reports) show considerable deterioration from July and one state that provides car registration data (not one of the large ones) shows a 12% decrease in registrations relative to August 2013.
I say that the rush to replace old cars with financing of bad credit is about to run its course. Buckle up, CNBC buttercups.
Those sales are inclusive of inflation, right?
We need 72 month financing for food!
Just a couple more questions.....and we'll have you hooked up with this bright shiney new Big Mac in no time.
This is an EBT......it's free!
EBT is 30 year financing on the food, via USTs.
And 72 yrs for houses
All remember that the data is gamed seven ways to sundown.
Now we have another DIP we can Buy!!
Once we ex-everything retail sales looks fantastic. Does that idea qualify me for a cushy .gov job and a big fat pension?
We have some openings at the VA. We strongly urge you to bring your own heathcare.
and bring yer own hand sanitizer. Its not a hospital, its more like a superfund site for bacteria and virus.
Possibly, but if you went to an Ivy league and spent 4-6 years doing cocaine fueled kegstands, you could likely become our next king.
I would expect the next QE to be different and involve revolving credit.
No one expects the Inquisition.
beware the comfy chair.....
so retail sales kinda suck
could you imagine if they actually reported the real numbers?
nice 20 point trading range on the SPX over the last month - good job yellen
Subprime Bitches! Get some.
Are the credit card balances on average increasing?
The Zero Hedge "American consumer is dead" meme takes a punch to the face. Again. Ouch.
A punch? this weak number is more like a slobbery kiss.
Here is another example of why there needs to be a way to label DL's & Passports with "Delusional"
Then you get a special line to wait on and everything.
Walmart and Amazon are already pimping out Visa cards to old debt addicts.
They know their credit sucks, but they need the sales.
Nothing else to say.
It's pathetic.
O2 deficit in the body economy.
Unfortunately for the bean counters, Honda built my car too well. Been driving it for almost 12 years, and it has 220,000 miles on the original engine. Dont foresee buying a car for at least a couple of years and, even then, it'll be for cash. Something like a Nissan Versa ($13k).
Who knows why you got down voted?
A guy I know that owns an auto parts store told me he sells the least amount of parts for Honda's.
A well made car that is driven in a reasonable way and properly maintained should go 250,000 without a problem.
(I expect a down vote from the people that "careen" past me on I 95 every morning going 85, zigging and zagging through 5 lanes of traffic)
I have been selling automobiles since 2010 and things have been great. I am hoping the gravy train lasts as long as possible.
MOST of my sales are to employed people with steady income and excellent credit. I'd say one out of 6 or 7 customers thatt buy a car has a bad credit score