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Art Cashin: "Things Could Theoretically Turn Into What I Call A Lehman Moment"
Courtesy of Finanz und Wirtschaft, interview by Christoph Gisiger
Wall Street veteran Art Cashin does not fully trust the record levels at the stock market and draws worrisome parallels between the geopolitical tensions over Ukraine and the Cuban missile crisis.
From the assassination of President Kennedy via the stock market crash of 1987 and the Fall of the Berlin Wall through to the burst of the dotcom bubble, the terror attacks of 9/11 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers: Art Cashin has experienced all the major world events of the last half century at the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Currently, the highly respected Wall Street veteran keeps a close eye on the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and on the situation in Ukraine which reminds him of the Cuban missile crisis «The markets are edgy and nervous», says the Director of Floor Operations for UBS Financial Services while constantly checking the quotation board. Like many traders here, he is somewhat skeptical of the huge stock market rally that started in March 2009. «I think it is a question of the extraordinarily low interest rates», he explains.

Mr. Cashin, September is historically the most difficult month of the year for equities. What is your take on September 2014 so far?
It is strange that September still lingers as a particularly weak month. It goes back to when America was more of an agrarian society and we depended on what would happen with the crop cycles. If a cooking factory for example had to buy wheat from the farmers it would send a check out drawn on an account at a city bank and the country bank would then cash it and put the money in the farmer’s account. Before the Federal Reserve was created, there was a wide spread between the time that money was asked for and when it was replaced. For centuries, this caused bank panics around this time of the year, most notably the panic of 1907. You would think that now that we are no longer an agrarian society, those changes would ease up on the financial pressures. But the market has kind of an echo.
So what are traders talking about at the present time here at the New York Stock Exchange?
We are concerned about two questions. First, how will the Fed do in keeping money reasonably easy without causing inflation? Second, where do we stand with the current geopolitical challenges? For now, these challenges seem to be short term concerns. But should we begin to see a financial contagion and pressure building on banks in Europe, perhaps out of the Ukraine situation, things could theoretically turn into what I call a «Lehman moment». That is when markets come under pressure but seem to be under control, and then things change suddenly.
How do you handle these concerns in your daily business as stock market operator?
Having done this over half a century now, the market tends to have recurring cycles of some type or other. For example, at the beginning of the Cuban missile crisis no one thought that it would turn into a major event. Yet, as time went on and neither side relented, it began to look like we might be on the verge of a nuclear war. That had great reverberations in the financial markets. Then, finally the Russian convoy that was going to resupply the Cuban missiles turned and headed back. Immediately, the stock market began to rally on that sense of relief and that rally continued for months. So you can have these theoretical events – whether they are geopolitical or not – and you get two sweeping changes: First, you can get further and further pressure on prices. And then suddenly, when it releases, you can get almost a rocket shot to the upside.
What are the signals you are looking for to stay on top in such a market?
Over the years, we on the floor have taken to look at what we call the risk monitors. For instance, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is usually an indicator for the flight to safety. People are looking to get over to the United States protected by the two large oceans. You also look at the gold market where people invest who are concerned that things are changing radically and who think they need some currency protection. And then, particularly in situations like this, you look at things like oil because that is inextricably involved with Russia and with the Middle East and what is going on with the Islamic terror organization ISIS.
And what are the risks monitors signaling?
Right now, it almost looks like peace is breaking out. The price of oil is sharply lower, both Texas West Intermediate and Brent. That indicates a lot less stress there. Although traders can be believers in conspiracies too. There is some wonder if perhaps Saudi Arabia and the United States are encouraging downward pressure on oil prices which would in turn put pressure on Russia and limit the availability to finance what they are doing. So there may be either market forces or government forces behind this.
And how stable is the situation on the stock market? Equities have stalled somewhat lately. Nevertheless, at the End of August the S&P 500 closed over 2000 for the first time and so far equities have performed quite well this year again.
I think it is a question of the extraordinarily low level of interest rates. There are very few places that investors can go to and get some return. So some people are using historic yard sticks and they are saying: «If rates are this low and the economy is this okay then the value of stocks should go higher.» But some of us question that since rates are artificially low.
So what is your take on those super low rates?
I think it means that there are still deflationary pressures out there and that the central banks all around the world are fighting off that deflation risk by keeping rates low. Rates are incredibly low in Europe, they are incredibly low in Japan, they are incredibly low in England and in the United States. That drives people to look at some other avenue to get a return and they have been driven into the stock market.
With the looming end of the QE3 program, the stock market soon will have to pass an important test. But surprisingly, in contrast to the end of QE1 and QE2 investors do not seem to be so nervous this time.
But we are seeing a rather similar reaction in the bond market. Perversely, when they ended the earlier QEs, treasury yields went down instead of going up. So we are seeing a little of that. I think the reaction of the stock market has to do with something that is referred to as the Greenspan put, and later as the Bernanke put. Investors believe that the Fed is concerned about its own independence and therefore it cannot let anything drastic happen. Our government has not been able to do anything on a fiscal basis. So the Fed has gone out and developed tons and tons of access free reserves. If that fails the central bankers know that it will be quite convenient for all the politicians to point the finger at the Fed. Hence, not only is the Fed interested in maintaining the economy but also in its own independence.
During your career on Wall Street, you have seen the coming and going of several Fed chiefs. How would you grade Janet Yellen so far?
I think it is a little too early to tell because she has not been fully able to implement her policies. We have not been done with the taper and she has not clearly defined what yardsticks or mileposts she is using. She is a scholarly woman and has done a great deal of studying, like Mr. Bernanke. Also, I have a new person to look at in the Fed and that would be Stanley Fischer. He brings a lot of experience in as vice chairman. As we begin to look at his speeches and comments, we will see that he is going to have an enormous influence and we may be begin to see him helping Ms. Yellen. He is not going to confront her but helping her to, perhaps, understand why things have to change a little.
With the end of QE3 and the return to a somewhat more traditional monetary policy, investors will likely put their focus more on the fundamentals like revenues, profit margins and earnings. In what shape is Corporate America?
That is one of the great debates here. It really breaks down to on what do you view the stock market is based on. On one side, there are the skeptics. They look at macroeconomics like the GDP numbers, the unemployment rate and a variety of other things. Those people tend to have been skeptical all the way through this rally. On the other side, there are the believers in the stock market and the recovery. They have seen the earnings go up and have been spot on so far. But there is a couple of asterisks that you have to put in. Thanks to the low interest rates, companies are finding that they can improve their balance sheets and they are buying back their own shares. So even when you are earning a little less money, if there are fewer shares around, than the price earnings ratio looks pretty good. That is why the critics of the stock market say that it is all part of financial engineering. Nevertheless, the supporters will respond: «Well, here is the earnings and we are at seventeen times earnings and that is very good for us.»
On what side of this debate are the traders here on the floor at?
The view of the traders is a slight degree of skepticism. As I say, having done this over fifty years, traders are always making sure they know the way out. When I go into a room, the first thing I look for is the exit sign. So when things turn bad I know which way to go.
Also, some skeptics argue that you cannot trust this really since it is based on unusually low trading volumes. Especially at the end of August we have seen some of the lowest volume days over the past seven years.
Over the years, I was always thought that volume equals validity. Just as you would not want to elect a president with only ten or twelve people voting. You want to see a broad consensus. Likewise, you would like to see a broad consensus on what is going on at the stock market. But these days, some of that lack of volume is structural. We have new products like Exchange Traded Funds. So you can with one purchase buy the five hundred stocks in the S&P 500 instead of the five hundred transactions that would have taken place in the past. That contributes to a lower volume, too.
How did the trading business change over the last few years in general?
We are going through a transition into automated electronic trading and we are still adapting to that. The new owners of the New York Stock Exchange, the Intercontinental Exchange, said that they would like to revamp what is going on, change some of the rules and perhaps produce a little more visible activity. I for one miss some of the old trading, especially the simple things. When there was a big crowd, noise would tell me things. When the noise level picked up I would know the activity is picking up. And if you are doing it as long as I am, you could almost tell by the pitch of the noise whether they were buyers or sellers: The buyers sound a little more like a Russian chorus. The sellers, on the other hand – I guess because they were nervous – would have a higher pitch when they shout «Sell! Sell! Sell!»
Today, the silent machines of high frequency traders do most of the trading. How do you cope with those superfast computers and highly sophisticated algorithms?
They may be faster but they are not necessarily smarter. Sometimes an old dog can still learn variations of new tricks and get things done. They might get the first step out of the building but you have to think on behalf of your clients what other impact will that have. If they are doing something in General Motors, what does it mean to Ford or someone else? So in this business, your clients expect you to be able to relate something that is happening in a particular stock with something in the rest of the market.
In May of 2010, the Flash Crash made the world suddenly aware of what can happen when robots are in charge in the trading arenas. How vulnerable is the US stock market today to a similar threat?
I am, of course, prejudiced. I prefer the trading system that we have had through the years. Here on the floor, not one stock traded at a penny during the Flash Crash. That was only in the electronic markets. And that was because here were humans who looked at each other and said: «That does not make any sense. There is no news out, there is no event. Let’s slow down and see where things are going.» As a consequence, the prices here on the floor tended not to be distorted in a manner that they were in other places. So as far as market structure is concerned, I think it is very helpful to have humans around. I prefer that somebody is watching the market as trades are being executed – just as I would not want to fly in an airplane with no pilot.
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Hmmm. No.
Iran is controlling Baghdad and Damascus now, threatening the existence of saudi royal family.
So now ISIS is an arm of Iran?
No.
I think it's a false meme in totality.
For example, China provides a lot of real stuff in exchange for USD and hates the big mug walking the global beat.
Venezuela provides a lot of real stuff and hates the po-lice man too.
Cuba would be tickled pink to sell its stuff to Uncle Sam but the cops won't let them.
"Storing it as collateral". just like the Chinese copper collateral deals? You mean paper storage?
correct. Same thing happened in the run up of 2008
Even if it is actually being stored up in tankers PhiBro/Goldman/JPM style and not just paper-gamed: if the printing stops all that Oil is going to collapse in price and the glut will be liquidated at a loss...
How can a hyper-leveraged propped commodity play cover a derivatives stack that is growing expnontially faster?
The Saudis are in effect selling Oil at a massive premium that is being created and sustained by monetary expansion/inflation. They are being OVERPAID for their Oil AND getting their protection from the Pentagon. ALL that excessive money spends just fine in US equities and RE markets, etc...
oK, let me repeat this again:
Nobody cares about holding US dollars.
Saudis are NOT selling at any premium at all.
It is their oil which gives value to USD, not vice versa.
It is their oil which defines USD, not vice versa.
Saudis do not care collecting US dollars. They care about US Military protection against Iran
It is not difficult to understand.
Nobody, absolutely nobody, cares about collecting currency on computers in exchange for nothing
"Nobody, absolutely nobody, cares about collecting currency on computers in exchange for nothing"
The Saudi SWF is not a fucking excel spreadsheet. REAL assets are bought with those dollars as soon as they get them.
The Saudi held US Dollars are already deployed.
Saudi Arabia has purchased Perpetual Income Streams via the US Treasury Complex and The FED Banking Cartel, as well as Real Estate and Corporate Debt.
Saudi held US Dollars are not piled up in a fucking tent in the desert somewhere.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/08/saudi-sovereign-funds-idUKL5N0O...
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
You call USTs and paper bonds........................................real assets?
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
I understand your confusion now.
Now it makes sense why you are confused
It is saudis who have the real assets that everybody wants.
All else is paper that can be dishonored at any time
Confusion solved?
"You call USTs and paper bonds........................................real assets?"
Collateral.
Perpetual Income Streams disguised as debt.
They are trading shit you burn once and is gone forever for perpetual dividends paid by stealing the productivity of the Citizenry. The whole gamne is to inflate the value of OIL and destroy the value of Labor.
Industrial calories eleveated over manual calories.
Liquidation and feudalization of Labor via countefeiting and leverage.
No.
USTs are collateral for the financial system only.
When it comes to real economy, UST is simply a claim on real economy, not collateral
"When it comes to real economy, UST is simply a claim on real economy"
You just made MY point for me.
US Treasuries ARE a claim on the real economy via Taxpayers.
The Saudis are buying claims on the REAL ECONOMY with those dollars.
They can also borrow with them and sell them to BUY up assets within the real economy.
LABOR IS THE REAL ECONOMY.
Combustion engines cannot create themselves and do nothing by themselves.
Well, I think we are getting to the bottom of it
Claims can and are dishonored at anytime.
You show me a bone fide US Treasury default and I will buy you a coke.
Daily. It is being defaulted daily.
USA is not payng with real stuff. It's paying with electrons on computers.
Which will be accepted for as long as Saudis keeps supplying oil in USD only, only if USA keeps its commitment to defend Saudis
USA is breaking its commitment thus far, hence world has reduced shipping real stuff to USA, which has resulted to economic misery right now.
USA standard of living depends on world shipping stuff to USA in exchange for defense of world trade and protection. USA doesn't produce much to justify this high standard of living
"USA is not payng with real stuff. It's paying with electrons on computers."
So is UK, Japan, EU, Swissy. It's ALL pretty much fiat toilet paper all over, isn't it?
Difference is: US still has .MIL and the Nuclear arsenal.
NO Oil might result in the Hajj rotation being several thousands of rpm faster than in prior years.
Correct. And USA is NOT using that power right now because Obama is vetoing Pentagon
Hence Putin, Khamenei, Jinping have expanded military invasions of world real collateral away from USA
We are still ending up arguing about acknowledging reality or not
Reality?
You mean like half the nation going out to 'vote' for a 'President' every forth November?
Just because the MSM news has Goodmorning to Letterman coverage of it doesn't mean any such thing is happening at all. Optics. Electoral College ( at best/so we're told ).
Reality?
I am just not buying what you're selling.
Saudi Arabia may have as much or more to fear from the nutjobs running North Korea.
This is where you are mistaken
I am not selling anything.
I am only answering your questions out of respect
This is a hobby for me. I love analysing
We can't debate if we both look at an apple and one of us calls it an orange
I haven't done any such thing.
YOU have asserted BOTH:
That the Saudi Oil gives value to the US Dollar.
& that the US Banking Lobby has beomce agressive with it's backer.
WHY would the US Banking Lobby pick a fight with/abandon what you claim is the source of it's collateral?
That Saudi oil gives value to USD is something that is not subject to negotiation and discussion.
That is what it is based on Kissinger's deal with them in 1973.
This fact cannot be negotiated as part of discussion. It is carved in stone.
If we are debating the validity of that event, then there is not point wasting one single click on the keyboard any further.
Then WHY would the Banking Cartel fuck with the collateral backing their only product and pick a fight with .MIL while they are at it?
I know all about Kissinger's deal after Bretton Woods blew up.
You are changing the subject.
You keep avoiding key questions as to what things are and why.
Derivatives, they are insolvent and want the Fed to paperise their derivative losses
Which breaks the deal with Saudis that their oil will not be extorted via money printing.
USA has not kept its part of the deal with saudis.
They are threatened. Iran controls Syria and Baghdad.
That Iran is threatening Saudi royal family existence, is an irrefutable reality.
I can only agree that The FED Cartel Banks are insolvent.
The derivatives pyramid cannot be netted. Most or all are not capable of closing out.
I disagree that Saudi Arabia is being extorted. The longer the US Dollar is the reserve currency the longer OPEC has a reasonably stable market and reasonably stable assets.
NO US Dollar hedgemeony = Saudi controlled Oil resources are up for grabs and Saudi Dollar denominated wealth is prime for default and/or expropriation.
Saudi Arabia needs the US a hell of a lot more than the US needs Saudi Arabia.
IF the US embargoed and sanctioned Saudi Arabia today as it has Iran the whole place would go medieval in weeks and the House of Saud would end up forever exiled ala the Pavhlavis or strung up like Saddam Hussein was. Kissinger's piss-ant warlords are living on borrowed time and always have been...
off to the gym now
Thx for the debate.
The real problem is your "analizing" is not real "analizing" but propaganda. Saudi Araba fearing Iran when Iran hasnt attacked anybody in the last 100 years? Obama appearing weak when he is expanding militari all over the middle east? Sorry you are not analizing anything but spreading missinformation.
You think with a "strong" USA president Putin will not behave the way he is behaving and he will be scared? You are twisting Reality to confirm to your own propaganda narative. But do go on, keep it up. Show us the proof Putin has military in Ukrane. BTW, show us the "weapons of mass distraction" Bush promised us were in Iraq. After ALL trhe string of lies USA has said, you still spreading lies.
Are you saying that Pentagon wants to protect Saudi Arabia or attack it?
Defend saudis from Iran.
Iran right now controlling Syria and Baghdad.
USA has not kept its side of the deal. Saudis are threatened
IF we are to agree that inflation is a form of default then we have to agree that debt is in a constant state of default as inflation is a chacteristic design feature of ALL debt-based fiat systems.
For the sake of this argument I am not willing to simply equate inflation with an actual default on US Treasury 'debt'.
TOV, one consequence of overleveraged systems is fucked up commodity 'prices'. And that's just one consequence.
"one consequence of overleveraged systems is fucked up commodity 'prices'. And that's just one consequence."
I agree 100%.
Prices are way too HIGH. The Saudis, OPEC, and other commodities producers have been being wildly OVERPAID.
-That is the whole point of inflation isn't it? To make people overpay for real goods and services -such as OIL ?
The deal is that Fed creates money to monetize Saudi oil, not to claim it.
Fed is creating money to extort saudi oil now
IMHO, without the $4 trillion printed up by The FED -and many difficult to account for trillions more printed by the UK, Japan, China, Swissy, etc..- the price of Oil would have collapsed and destroyed the Saudi ( and Russian ) economies, pushed Venezueala over the edge, etc....
In fact: practically EVERYTHING is being used as 'collateral' for derivative gambling.
Of course you could buy more on margin. That's what the world has been doing for several years now. The artificial world. And the battle with the real world continuous.
You can buy more on margin, up until the seller...................refuses..............to sell.
Whic is now
When did Saudi Arabia or OPEC stop selling Oil?
IS there an embargo that has not been publicized?
ALL that printed omney went to propping the price. INFLATION.
Oil is and has been drastically overpaid for . The Saudis can spend those trillions of US dollars buying up whatever they want all over the fucking world!
They tell you in advance, behind closed doors
Obama is refusing protection to SAudis, hence saudis have no more interest to sell in USD or to USA
Pentagon is furious
Again. Nobody cares about collecting US dollars or any currency in the world, unless the issuing country provides goods or services in exchange
"Again. Nobody cares about collecting US dollars or any currency in the world, unless the issuing country provides goods or services in exchange"
Again. Nobody is being precluded from buying goods and services in the Unted States with US Dollars. The real estate markets in metro MYC are presently dominated by foreign cash buyers. The US equities markets are open to SWF and Hedge Funds.
-Not that US dollars are being turned away in GB, Canada, Australia, etc...
Even certain Russian corportations would probably be willing to make some very good Buffett/GS Warrants type deals with the Saudis right now. Buying the competitor's fields at a discount after being overpaid for your own product sounds pretty sweet as in light and sweet...
World is avoing USD daily now
Where have you been this last 5 years?
That's why unemployemnt has soared, food stamps have proliferated, people go on welfare.
World is using USD less and less and less every year, every month, every week and every day.
"World is avoing USD daily now
Where have you been this last 5 years?"
Then:
WHY is the US dollar presently rising?
WHY have corporations leveraged themselves to the moon?
WHY is Oil not at post-Lehman crash prices/under $55/bbl?
"That's why unemployemnt has soared, food stamps have proliferated, people go on welfare."
Ridiculous. Labor has been totally expropriated for over 30 years. The productivity gains of a generation have been siphoned off by the corporations and the government bureaucracies. IF labor received the gains generated from rising productivity instead of being robbed by money printing and over taxation and monopoly pricing in health care, etc.; it would not need credit cards or welfare or foodstamps, etc...
"World is using USD less and less and less every year, every month, every week and every day."
PROVE IT WITH SOME KIND OF STASTIC OR VERIFIABLE INFORMATION OF SOME KIND.
Where have you been for the last five years particularly last 6 months?
Zerohedge has published all currency swaps world is doing with China and brics and Russia
I have been assuming thus far that you read zerohedge daily. If you don't then, please read the archives, do a google search.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101996097
This is fresh today
UK to launch first yuan denominated bond outside china, using yuan as reserve, for the first time ever.
PROPOSED currency swaps or ACTUAL currency swaps?
Russia can't swap dick with China until the petroleum products can actually be delivered.
Brazil? Still running their mopeds on corn ethanol last I heard...
-China might want some decent beef though.
WHO has actually traded WHAT in WHICH currencies?
I like pretty pictures: LINK & CHART ME UP BRO.
I have no intention of convincing anybody about anything.
I you refuse to see reality, that is your choice.
Charts?
You actually believe government data?
Don't you see food stamps proliferating and people having 20hr per month part time jobs from previously lost full time jobs?
Reality can only be seen, not proven. If you refute the irrefutable reality that world is abandoning USD gradually, then we cannot discuss
"Don't you see food stamps proliferating and people having 20hr per month part time jobs from previously lost full time jobs?"
Damned right I do.
It isn't because of BRICS trading peanuts amongst one another: it is because the Government has ROBBED the Taxpayers and the Corporations have ROBBED Labor.
The US Dollar has been inflated ( in part to OVERPAY for foreign Oil and bail out failed and fraudulent FED cartel Banking schemes ) and the .mil/regulatory/social service ponzi bureaucracies have expanded way beyond usefulness into near total parasitism.
The Corporations have with-held over 30+ years of productivity gains from Labor and done everything to outsource, import cheap foreign labor, and encourage the debt/welfare state which relieves the Corporate sector of pressure to pay the productivity gains in order to keep conumption alive.
Dollar is rising against Oil and nearly ALL other fiat.
This would seem to refute your assertion that the world is divesting from and abandoning the dollar.
City of London worried that it might be about to lose easy access to Scottish petroleum industry and Scottish Taxpayer skim and floating a yuan/dollar pegged bond is not the harbinger of the end of US Dollar reserve status, IMHO.
World has not much interest in US real estate or any other products, except for US Military protection.
If no US military, then world wouldn't give an excrement about USA. It doesn't have much to offer
Remember this:
There is no such thing as VERIFIABLE INFORMATION.
There will never be.
You have to observe reality and draw conclusions for yourself
All comes down to acknowledging reality
We seem to have come to different conclusions as to what is real.
We might be observing from different perspectives or even looking at different things...
Saudi Arabia has been being wildly overpaid for it's Oil and Iran has not made any significant threat against Saudi Arabia. I don't know what it is that You think the Saudis should be pissed off or frightened about. ALL the wealth the Saudi royals have expropriated from Arabia and the Oil addicted west exists and is likely as secure as any pile of securiities and portfolio of accounts held by any family of despots in the world.
Agree
We are looking at the same thing and calling it at different names.
The way I look at reality is different from the way you look at it. Very human, very normal. Nothing unusual.
Hence our analyses do not converge
Ah, channeling Godel, are we? Good, good, NOW we are getting somewhere. Next we will be talking about how "Reality is non local."
.
More lies and dissinfo. Iran is not stupid. They aren't going to threaten anybody. USA has sold enough military equipment to Saudi for the Saudies to be able to protect themseves. USA removed their bases from Saudi long ago. USA/Israel has been claming Iran has been a threat since the Iranian revolution. Just one more lie. Thats all.
That's correct imho. Overstretched paper games. Visible in almost every 'market', not just oil. I'll skip the MAD WW3 'arguments'.
Can i leverage golf handicaps?
"You can buy more on margin, up until the seller refuses to sell."
The seller is NOT selling on margin; leverage is acquired from the Banking Lobby.
Saudi Arabia does not vendor finance.
You have claimed that the Banking Lobby is fighting with .MIL over Saudi Arabia.
You say it is the Banking Lobby which is betraying Saudi Arabia even though you also say that Saudi Oil gives the Banking Cartel's ONLY product, the US Dollar, value.
WHY would the US Banking Lobby fight with .MIL over the backing of their financial system/fiefdom?
Gotta just love Art (for Art's sake).
I guess only positive comments about Art are allowed? Never had a comment on ZH filtered before! Art must have some major clout around here!
ALL THE GOLD IS GONE!
What are we going to tell the landlord?
Goodbye Hawaii & Alaska.
It was nice knowing you.
We'll throw in a few million females.
Are we good?
‘without causing inflation’
So funny…
Raising rates would slow the sale of products forcing the manufactures to reduce cost.
The $1.00 menu would eventually get back to beef. Instead of ‘patti’ formula; saw dust and eye meat?
Raising rates would make gold skyrocket.
Too many eyes on the thumbs manipulating gold.
It will go up, and the dollar will collapse.
Unless Europe saves us by printing money.
Buying our worthless debt.
Of course, inflation will hit all borrowers and creditors alike.
It doesn't look good, except for the golden squirrels.
The squirrels will have the last laugh.
Sitting on their pile of nuts.
There will be no crash because the markets are totally controlled. Things will simply stop trading and fade away.
Does that include my mortgage?
Pay it off with an ounce or two of silver when hyperinflation arrives. Don't give them the chance to convert it to the new currency, like they did in other places.
Fuck no. That gets revalued into sdrs. It's in the fine print somewhere. If not, a law will be passed post event. You know, to protect the financial world from imploding.
scept for food, health insurance and house prices, I see a Deflationary Depression rapidly developing. If the fed raises rates we'll definitely collpase into something worse then Lehmans. Another series of serious problems are the pathetic jobs numbers and with low wage earners flooding into the country from every direction -- Mexico, Central America, India, and so on -- I suspect the job situation for the private sector Middle Class will get much much worse, esp since neither party wants to correct the problems.
We need a 3rd Party next election.
"We need a 3rd Party next election."
Two would be fine.
We have a 3rd , 4th & 5th party, you just won't see or hear about them on PBS, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN.
Nothing changes until K Street burns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40
LEHMAN MOMENT
Euphemism for the Invasion of Poland.
JOE STALIN -THE MOST EVIL BUTCHERER OF ALL TIME -AND OUR ALLY -INVDED PLAND IN 1940 AS A RESULT OF THE RIBBENTROP/MALATOV AGREEMENT -AND WE DIDN'T CARE. WHY SHOULD WE CARE NOW? PUTIN IS NO STALIN.
When I said 'the invasion of Poland' all that I meant was that something huge and ugly had commenced and dislocated life as it was known then.
Btw, the Nazis invaded Poland September 1, 1939 while the Russians didn't invade until September 17, 1939.
Without causing inflation. Fuckers are inflating everything not included in the inflation figure needed to live, food and energy.
HANG THE BASTARDS AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE, HIGH FROM EVERY LAMP POST!
I like Art -
I bet at some point Art had sex with the Money Honey.
Doggy style for sure - I bet he gave her a good pounding.
Good! Hope it does. Can't wait until it crashes. Lots of greedy people need a really good ass-kicking. This is going to be funny as fuck!
"There is some wonder if perhaps Saudi Arabia and the United States are encouraging downward pressure on oil prices which would in turn put pressure on Russia and limit the availability to finance what they are doing"
Atleast Art finally said what everyone is thinking.
The Fed brining out QE4 in 2015 will be the trigger that causes a selloff due to lack of confidence in this phony recovery.
China & Russia will announce how much gold it possesses.
Then, the world will know the U.S. has NONE!
No doubt the markets will call them liars at first.
But then the reality of the moment will hit.
Obozo will offer our terms of surrender.
With a big smug smile on his face.
If HFT had not manipulated the trading system, you could have still programmed into the automated system Noise indicators that would have given the same human information that Art was talking about.
The fact that they have not programmed those same attributes into the system indicates that they had other goals in mind, like manipulation and corruption.
This is not rocket science, if you design an Accounting system to hide the debits from the credits, you are not designing an Accounting system; it is a corruption system. That is what we have now on WS.
It is TREASON.
And necks will stretch on silk $1k ties.
It is treason. With no justice
I will stick with Dr. Jim WIllie and Dr. Paul Craig Roberts....Does anyone know if Art believes the governments view on 911?
I searched it, and I see nothing that Art questions 911...
Art probably has granchildren.
What kind of a world?
Who are these "investors" he speaks of, the machines?
Art Cashin, copied and pasted: As our President said – “We will not tire. We will not falter. We will not fail!”
Super Genius...
http://youtu.be/_d8ROhH3_vs
come on Art, tell us what you really think. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hjgIF71lio
funny how tyler & ppl 'er dont give a shit about world economics in saturday/sunday, while top comment on friday go over 500.... this site is just like fucking reality of the world, ppl care about 1-2-3-4-5 day but on 6 day they stop thinking for family moment & sunday -7- they just go suck their respective gods... then on monday, BACK TO HARDCORE... fuck you, all, just fuck you all.
this world is pure shit. just ask yourself why any election is on sunday..... ALL OVER THIS.....
FUCK YOU. this world deserve to implode with bilions deads.
no shit, any web site rulez over family schedule... fucking lame pathetic
Get busy livin', or get busy dyin'.
5 predications for a crash per day by Zerohedge for the last 6 years, equals 10,950 predications for a bubble bursting/crash...,
sooner or later an squirrel finds an acorn!
5 predications for a crash per day for the last 6 years, equals 10,950 predications for a bubble bursting/crash...,
sooner or later an squirrel finds an acorn!
Zerohedge, like many of us, did not realize the extent of crime, looting, murder, lies, stealing, that the FED is and has been doing..
Now there are few that make predictions, because these psychopaths will go to any length to keep in power. And most of the citizens of this country dont even care. I dont knwo when, but there will be an endgame. People speak of silver and gold, but to be honest? As soon as the system crashes, they will simply outlaw metals for personal ownership. Keep your metals, but keep an eye open because you will have to sell in a small opening window. Prepare yourself with food, water, protection etc.
Wait, you left off the King World News scare story factor!
He sounds like one of those delusional conspiracy theorists
Lock him up and throw away the key
Smoke and Mirrors.
Stock market indexes represent the actions taken by FED software applications. Russia nor China have gone after Goldman Sachs in a serious way yet. The Ukraine war is a hoax as are the Russian sanctions for a physical attack and fear against the peoples of the world and a backdrop for the central banksters to go in for the kill. ISIS is similar but involves Saudi Arabia instead of Russia.
Be prepared.
I think you are on the path to possible truth.
Great post, q99.
There are too many events going on at once.
Nobody, not even the elusive "Illuminati" can control everything, but they can sure execute devious general operations.
You are far better than most of us latching on to these schemes, imo.
I like the attitude of my Indian investment associate.
"Who cares?" he said when I showed him the Pyramid on the USD. "They are going to move their Operations to Asia, even if this so-called secret group exists. It may be some PTB use this to scare people. Even if they do exist, we can maneuver around them; you must learn to flow, not resist! Look at your country, and Europe. They are operating on fumes. No, these guys-whoever they really are- are planning a Big Move.
"You have always kept Your Word to me. We can thrive in this chaos, if chaos is going to be."
The only way they can defeat deflation is to drop paper money from choppers. What they are doing now, giving paper money to their friends, should be illegal. Remember the term, "pushing on a string"?
The Banksters of WS are like some obese, cigar chomping, 5000 dollar suit wearing blowhards stuffed full at a endless table. They are saying "No more money, we have too much money.
So the FED will be looking to make welfare wards of everyone else.
Well then arrest heliocoper Ben, no more free money!*
Anyone care to explain how ETFs reduce volume? If you're buying an ETF, the ETF goes out and buys those shares. I just don't see it.
There are also these places called Dark Pools, kind of like private exchanges run entirely inside hedgies and under the trading desks of certain 'banks' ...
IMHO, a large volume of trading has been taken behind the curtain/behind the door/under the desk.
But can you be a registered owner of shares traded behind the curtain/behind the door/under the desk?
Or are we in the "portfolio twilight zone? "
ETFs don't immediately go out and buy shares. They have to accumulate purchases to get to some quantity - then they buy a block of stocks and create new ETF shares. So if there is a buy followed by a sell then the only volume is the ETF share itself. The ETF itself did not do any trading of its positions, as the churning would only add to its costs. as long as buys and sells cancel each other, the ETF would not have to do anything else.
And remember - ETFs have already bought what they are holding - they do not trade but rather hold. The price of the ETF goes up or down based on what it holds - not just on whether people are buying or selling the ETF. (Premium or Discount).
So Art is correct.
I'll believe it, when I see it : "With the end of QE3 and the return to a somewhat more traditional monetary policy, investors will likely put their focus more on the fundamentals like revenues, profit margins and earnings. In what shape is Corporate America"?
I fully agree with Arts comment, but when and a big IF the Fed. tightens, remains to be seen... This brings to the forefront another question.
With corporations so heavily levered with debt from buybacks and cheap debt issuance, along with ruduced Capex/ R/D, how will they fare when rates rise?
Control Fraud.
The management will have sold their options to the corporations while levering them up and emply their wonderful golden parachutes IF/when rates rise.
After that it's someone else's problem. Likely .GOV will try to make it OURS.
Absolutely correct... Couldn't have said it better myself. ;-)
It's never different this time, when it comes to the taxpayer.
The recent drum beats and flames of war have distracted many people from focusing on the economy. The markets are extended beyond beyond, all this comes at a time when the IMF is calling for more QE. It seems this might be a good time to review the reasons this is economically unsound and a bad idea while markets are setting new record highs and economies continue to struggle.
The policies of the last six years have yet to produce the desired and expected results promised. As a consolation many economist, bankers, and those who have benefited greatly tell us we would be in far worse shape if we had not taken this course. Now it seems Central Banks and the IMF are clueless on how to proceed and a policy going forward. More on the lack of a clear path in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/central-banks-and-imf-clueless-on...
Calm down guys, it's going be okay.
volume is irrelevant. there is no market. there is only the fed.
#1, the end started 5 1/2 yrs. ago, the trillions of dollars going from the fed. to forgien cb's to cover the tbtf banks of criminally selling financial instruments they didn't own, in concert with freddie, and fannie.
#2, then at the same time every govt. agency went into whatever it takes mode to reditribute the working-class of america out of their wages, and or jobs.
#3, i'm in full agreement,food,andall the other nessities needed for americans daily living, have been spiraling up but covered-up, and lied about.
yes i've noticed the patriotic bullshit being spread, only because their false-flags have failed, i personally don't think o'bama, and his administration could raise any patriotic movement, even if the new tower was brought down.
I learned absolutely nothing new from this interview.
O/T But thought you might enjoy.
Is This the First Wahoo Caught Off California's Coast? | Field & Stream
Cali is in for a wet winter. I can't wait to shove a hot poker up Gov. Moonbeams ass.
"Right now, it almost looks like peace is breaking out. The price of oil is sharply lower..."
I believe the 1st comment and part of the second comment.
To me this looks like a deflationary moment when the true economic (dismal) situation is revealed as the cheap credit is removed from the table.
Every day we will see deflation in energy, and yet the price of food will remain high.
Demand is down because cheap credit is down and everyone is 'topped out' in credit and debt now.
As interest rates slowly rise, and cheap (central bank funded) credit disappears, then the bad things will happen to many mid-level businesses and banks.
A year from now expect a deep depression worldwide (unless crashes or war breaks out...then it might be at end game).
The major investors (and pension funds) are starting to react to the 5-year going non-recovery with huge debt expansion.
Expect some 'flash' market drops, market shutdowns, and problems this year and getting very bad by 2015.
Many countries in Europe and South America are at the breaking point now, and that will cause additional issues.
Maybe the BRICs will load up and have 20 new members by next year ? Maybe the EU will break up ? Anything is possible.
I am sure the Pope's Piecemeal WWIII will cause many to react.
Not falling to peace...but pieces. Not "peace is breaking out"...but Pieces are breaking off !!
Why does ZERO HEDGE give this guy any print at all? Five years ago, he said, "any one who thinks the
FED is manipulating markets believes in black helicopters, and conspiracies,,," his exact words, "it a load of crap!!". Mr. Cahsin, get a life, you are a load of crap. You remind me of the dude in OFFICE SPACE that was only interested in protecting his stapler, and was working for free....
Get back to your office in MCSORLEYS....get a life...
Even more telling is the red stapler and Myopic Milton were the ones that got paid for 5 years after he was fired, plus ended on the beach with the loot from the skim.
I see parallel between the interviewee and Milton except for sophistication.
That movie will become as much of an Icon as Dr. Strangelove and Soylent Green. Classic Dilbert stuff. See it about 3 times if you haven't, not a waste of time and is a fantastic look at human nature.
There is control in the market until, bam, there isn't. A moment of clarity is presented and the market crashes. This market can not face the truth...ok got it. Different set of rules for the Banksters as they pull the strings.
Did I miss anything?
Death, by law, to the banks.
Hey Tyler D, seen this today?
http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-management-of-portugals-bes-good-bank...
sold off by next week ? what a trick.
HardlyZero
We need to put Him through the ALGO test?
You show promise kid. six weeks?
How do you spell anal discomfort?
Those Wall Street Jews took my life savings in 2008.
Why should I care about the rigged casino now?
I was having a delicious dinner last night here in Singapore.
My companion was an Indian money guy I am working with.
This guy is sharp. We were talking about Scotland, and he said "the Euro will fall in 8 months."
We had closed a 5 million USD$ deal on a construction project, I made a tidy sum. He wants to put me with an adviser who has some extensive knowledge of the Sensex.
"Read all the information, it will take you a while, but you can make some real money. Don't put it in the US Market."
So, I will have to do some research.
His main operation theory is to diversify funds into different hard products as well as some paper.
You two twinks deserve each other.
You may want to prepare for the effects of years of fruits that bear no seeds.
Not just literally.
Type O Negative - Everything Dies [OFFICIAL VIDEO]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ3aiM8K6D0
Word of the warning..Enjoy
;-)
"Things Could Theoretically Turn Into What I Call A Lehman Moment"
BS title to a BS article by a BS-iter
sundays are slow
Poor Basho, you're experiencing massive hemorrhoids. The only bullshit is you. A slow news day is watching you get fucked seven days till Sunday.
Just love Art's nostalgia over trading with boots on the ground and what econ newsbites or hypes that matter to veterans. He must be kidding us for he should know better that good traders can just shed skins like snakes to embrace computer screens and watch the signals morphing into nerds that filter out noises of today's plentiful econ trashes.
He must also be kidding in that you do not find so many of these veterans around on the opposite side of your trade to be easy preys.
Art forgot to mention the technique on how too outwit HFT.
Hence, above post.. Everything dies.
/ hahahahahaaa
I suppose taking advantage of the Alzheimer's and Parkinson's crowd is one way to make a living.
Too bad it has as much to offer your psyche and well-being as emptying bedpans.
That's one way to put it.
Art's been saying stuff like this for the last 4 years.
He'll be correct... someday.
The problem with the history of gold from our perspective is that it is a history of the West. What will be different gong forward is the influence of the East. China is importing tons and tons of gold all the time. What will happen when the West (London & NY) are no longer the sole financial center of the universe? I predict that - like the price of oil - gold will no longer be able to be manipulated by the West, or at least not as much. I still do not accept gas at $3-4 a gallon.... in my head it is supposed to .50 to .75 /gal. or $1.25 at the most on a bad day. Younger folk don't know any differently. Gold will eventually become like oil - the price will be based on a world-wide consensus (i.e. the market) - not what NY & London say it is. How could it not?
You need to treat Art as a source of information - a window into Wall Street - a fly on the wall. Art is WAY better than the talking heads on CNBC of the guests who keep pumping the market. After reading some comments suggesting that Art is "Pro Fed" I re-read the article. I could find nothing where Art says "I think the Fed is doing a great job". What Art does tell you is what "The Market" thinks about the Fed and QE and lofty prices. You may disagree with the message, but it is not the messenger's fault for speaking the truth. And as always, accept what Art says, as a unique source of information - but keep stacking and stocking.
" As we begin to look at (Stanley Fischer's) speeches and comments, we will see that he is going to have an enormous influence and we may be begin to see him helping Ms. Yellen. He is not going to confront her but helping her to, perhaps, understand why things have to change a little."
So maybe Cashin is trying to diplomatically tell us whose influence is really greater in the Open Market Committee. I can't remember, is Fisher a dual citizen?
I don't know about his citizenship, but he is a graduate of the same MIT Economics program as Bernanke and the others. More group think.
Mr. $Bill lears Karate from Sluggold
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3E_WARspaU
Art, at your age you shouldn't be speaking in riddles.
If Yellen isn't up to the job, you should be shouting it from the rooftops.
Good to see you look like you don't seem heading for some major stomach ulcer. I was worried for you. You look way fitter than last time I saw you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO_zsHa_JT0
Nevermind the "Lehman Moment"...watch out for the "Bad Burrito Moment".