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Kohl's And The Rest Of The Retailers Are In Deep Trouble

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Kohl's And The Rest Of The Retailers Are In Deep Doo Doo

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” ? Mark Twain

I never believe government manufactured numbers. They will always be adjusted, massaged, and manipulated to achieve a happy ending for the propagandists attempting to control and fleece the sheep. Yesterday, the government produced retail sales numbers for August that were weak and the corporate MSM propaganda machine immediately threw up bold headlines declaring how strong these numbers were. Positive stories were published on the interwebs and Wall Street hack economists were rolled out on CNBC, where the bubble headed bimbos and prostitutes for the status quo like Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman declared the recovery gaining strength. Woo Hoo.

If everyone else is whipping out that credit card, why aren’t you? Credit card debt has reached a new post recession high. They tell me consumer confidence is soaring. Forget about the 92 million working age Americans supposedly not in the labor force. Forget about real household income hovering at 1999 levels. Forget about median household net worth still 30% lower than 2007. Forget about what you see with your own two eyes in malls, strip centers and office parks as you motor around our suburban sprawl empire of debt. Those Store Closing, Space Available, and For Lease signs mean nothing.

I didn’t get a chance to peruse the commerce department drivel until this morning. They put out unadjusted data and adjusted data. Shockingly, the adjusted data is always rosier than the unadjusted data. I wonder why? I can understand the rationale for adjusting month to month data due to holidays and calendar events. But I still don’t trust the adjustments. There should not be a major difference when comparing year over year data. The adjusted data should reflect the same relationship to the unadjusted data on a year over year basis. Well guess what? It appears our friendly government drones may be pumping the current data to give the appearance of recovery. Here are my observations after taking a look at the government propaganda report:

  • The unadjusted retail sales were only 3.2% higher than last August. Considering government reported inflation of 2%, that is a pretty shitty result. But have no fear. The “ADJUSTED” retail sales for August were 5.0% higher than last August. WTF? Guess which number gets reported to the sheep?
  • Hysterically, your government drones consider lending deadbeats $40,000 for seven years with no money down to drive away with a GM deathtrap SUV as a retail sale. The billions in subprime auto loans led to an 8.8% YoY surge in “ADJUSTED” auto sales. It seems the unadjusted number only went up 5.3%.
  • When you back out the Federal Reserve/Wall Street pumped auto sales, which will ultimately result in billions of written off bad debt (you’ll pick up the tab), unadjusted retail sales were only 2.7% higher than last August. With real inflation of 5% or more, real retail sales are negative on a year over year basis.
  • Despite financing deals of 4 years with no interest, furniture and electronics retail sales were flat versus last August. If there really is a housing recovery and 2.1 million more Americans are employed versus last August how could these discretionary sales be flat, and negative on an inflation adjusted basis?
  • Grocery store sales were up only 2.1% over last year. Even the government is reporting 2.7% food inflation in the last year. We all know it is closer to 10%, so people are actually reducing the amount of food they are buying. That is a sure sign of an economic recovery.
  • Clothing store sales were flat and department store sales were negative versus last August. So much for the back to school storyline. I do believe August is back to school time. The Sears and JC Penney Bataan Death March trudges toward bankruptcy.
  • What did surge was sales at restaurants and bars. They soared by 6.8% versus last August. We already know Darden, Yum Brands and McDonalds have reported dreadful results, so either the government is lying, soaring food prices are being passed on to customers, or people are so depressed by this awesome economic recovery they are drinking themselves into a stupor.

As a side note on the accuracy of this government data, in a previous role at IKEA, when I was a much younger man, I was responsible for filling out the monthly government retail surveys for the Census Bureau. The government drones collecting this data do not check it. They do not require proof that it is right. It is self reported by retailers across the country. Filling out this crap for the government was about as low on my priority list as whale shit. If I was really busy, I’d make the numbers up, scribble them on the form and put it in the mail. The numbers the government are accumulating are crap. And then they massage the crap. And then they publish the crap as if it means something. It’s nothing but crap.

When you see the headlines touting strong retail sales, you need to consider what you are actually seeing in the real world. RadioShack will be filing for bankruptcy within months. Wet Seal will follow. Sears is about two years from a bankruptcy filing. JC Penney’s turnaround is a sham. They continue to lose hundreds of millions every quarter and will be filing for bankruptcy within the next couple years. Target and Wal-Mart continue to post awful sales results and have stopped expanding. And as you drive around in your leased BMW, you see more Space Available signs than operating outlets in every strip center in America.

My anecdotal proof of this relentless slow motion retail trainwreck is twofold. We received our second 30% off discount coupon from Kohl’s in the last three weeks. We are so indifferent to these constant offers that we didn’t even use the first one. I have to wear dress clothes to work every day, so I went over to Kohl’s this morning when they opened at 8:00 am to get some dress shirts and pants.

The parking lot was an oasis of empty spots and there were maybe 5 customers in the entire store. I went to the mens’ section and was shocked to see about two dozen 60% to 80% off racks. There are usually two or three racks. The store was overflowing with summer merchandise. Summer is over. The store should have been overflowing with Fall merchandise. They are clearly in the midst of an inventory disaster. I found excellent dress shirts on the 70% off rack. Everything I bought was at least 50% off, even before my 30% coupon and another $10 menswear coupon.

I live in a relatively upscale suburban area and still this Kohl’s is an absolute disaster. Their gross margin is going to be hammered. Profits are going to implode. Kohl’s has always been a favorite retailer of the middle class. Decent quality at reasonable prices. Their comp store sales were between positive 5% and 15% for years, until the 2008 financial collapse. Their struggles since then coincide with the decline of middle class incomes and the fake jobs recovery. The fact that they are spiraling downward flies in the face of the propaganda being spewed by the government and media.There is no recovery for the average American.

My second data point happened on Thursday. An accident on the Turnpike forced me to take Lincoln Drive and Germantown Pike home from work (1 hour and 55 minutes of agony). I hadn’t taken this route in about six months. Germantown Pike winds through the Chestnut Hill section of Philly. This is an artsy fartsy area with boutique retail, chic outlets, and fancy restaurants. The upper middle class frequents the area. The retail stores were always open, occupied and busy.

Not anymore. I saw dozens of empty storefronts, Space Available, and For Lease signs. The open stores had no customers. The trendy eating establishments had few patrons. Even the yuppie latte drinking areas are beginning to crumble. Every office park I passed had Space Available signs in front. The amount of vacant retail and office space in this country is too vast to comprehend and is being under-reported by the real estate whores whose job it is to rent space. Ignoring the facts and the truth doesn’t change the facts and the truth.

Do you believe the government and the corporate media, or do you believe your own two eyes?

You can ignore the government reported happy talk. When retailers and restaurants report their actual sales and profits, the truth shall be revealed. It will set you free.

 

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Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:22 | 5216903 Sirius Wonderblast
Sirius Wonderblast's picture

SofaPapa -

The "subconscious" point is the clincher, I reckon. The question is how to wake them up, or are they too scared to? Panem et circenses = Matrix?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 17:08 | 5217012 Binko
Binko's picture

Good post. But I don't believe that the masses will ever "return to real meaningful activities" again.

The future is fairly clear if you follow the trends. Robotized automated mega-factories will churn out endless amounts of cheap electronics and other junk as well as industrialized "food" products. The masses will take their dole money and jack into an electronic haze while gorging on factory food.

A small educated elite will maintain and police industry and government. But it's fanciful to imagine that the future holds a return to meaningful labor of any kind for the majority of the world's population.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 18:34 | 5217197 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

You said it yourself: if you follow the trends.

I don't believe these trends can sustain.  We are already seeing failures in several natural and man-made systems: e.g. Fukushima, honeybees, ocean life.  Modern systems will not make it to the future you describe.  They are far more fragile than most people want to believe (myself included).

I foresee a reversion back to a much more primitive existence with much smaller groupings of our species, assuming we don't take ourselves all out in a single cataclysmic event.

Which story is true? Yours or mine?  God knows the answer to that one, and I have no inside line there.

If my story ends up being true, however (without the cataclysmic destruction), I'm not convinced people will be any less happy in the new scenario than they currently are with our "techo-wonder world".  If family units were to become re-established as the dominant support network, I would see that as a very strong positive for a return to a greater sense of meaning in the lives of those who make it through the crucible.

Thank you all, btw, for your kind words on my original post.  They are deeply appreciated.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 23:23 | 5217805 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Binko,

That was an awesome summary.

I hear many Hedgers talking about gold and meaningful growth and you just, in few words; put a nail in that coffin.

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:02 | 5216010 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

Jon Corzine here,

Is freedom such a bad thing?

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:15 | 5217562 Charlie hustler
Charlie hustler's picture

Yeh, good points all way round, but prostitutes will be even cheaper and you want have to pay anything extra to bare-back them.
Hopefully we will a nice mix of soccer moms and Co-eds coming into the market.
It won't matter to me what happens b/c I'll prolly be dead soon anyway.
You pussies need to start getting yours before it's all gone.

Long live the republic

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:11 | 5216161 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Ohh Gosh! Will you ever learn?

 

y3maxx

Asked: ...WHERE IS IT SAFE TO LIVE?

 

 

Maxx, the question you should be asking is:

 

HOW LONG IS IT SAFE TO STICK AROUND?

 

I mean: You ought to know how this ends, don’t you?

 

Just in case:

When America ran out of money and resources to continue their Ponzi scheme, America goes to war.

 

When the Chinese economy reaches the end of its rope, it will lead to a Chinese military expansion that will lead to war.

 

When Russia realizes that they will be in between two declining Empires, both coming after their resources and land, before the final global implosion, that is a conundrum that I haven’t been able to find an answer yet.

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:25 | 5216247 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

The Russians will run out of resources a long ways after The American Ponzi collapses.  The Chinese will buy their gas and oil from the Russians so they will last quite a while also.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 15:53 | 5216830 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

China will choke on their own industrial excrement.

I stopped recycling when I found out it was all being shipped back

to China in empty containers.

They convert it all  into pollution.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 20:50 | 5217520 griffey247
griffey247's picture

That is the truth.... Too bad investigative journalism is dead.  

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:03 | 5216392 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Escrava, I can't quite put my finger on it but, you are my least favorite poster on ZH

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:34 | 5216479 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

So, what's your most favorite?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:33 | 5216927 tvdog
tvdog's picture

It's not the content of your posts, which are well thought out, but the way you seem to enjoy insulting people you disagree with. I have the same problem with Noam Chomsky.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 18:11 | 5217142 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

We are here at fight club. I take umbrage with the guy sometimes but so what? I am also working with a friend of mine that broke my rib boxing too. Get over the delicate flower syndrome. You will be happier.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 23:41 | 5217835 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Monkey,

That’s why I keep my ribs very flexible; just like a bamboo that fights the wind, by keep bending.

Anyway, your post is inspiring.

Thanks.

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 20:50 | 5217516 griffey247
griffey247's picture

I kinda agree. It is the tone. Hence the 20 up votes. 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 22:00 | 5217637 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

That avatar doesnt help.

That's the kind of face Ray Rice would like to hit.

Mon, 09/15/2014 - 06:03 | 5218103 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

I think Michael Jackson and the Turing Test every time.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 23:19 | 5217795 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Possibly 3 empires, 2 declining and one expanding. The Islamic State is likely to be at the Russian Border before the Europeans organize a 4th Reich and send armies into Russia.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:14 | 5217559 msmith9962
msmith9962's picture

Heres a coupon for 30% off and free shipping.

http://www.dealcatcher.com/kohls-coupons?id=996810763

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:19 | 5216057 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

What they know is that the cost of the new campus plus relocation costs minus proceeds from selling the old buildings they will be vacating around the country is less than a couple years' maintenance on the old buildings.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:33 | 5216092 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...proceeds from selling the old buildings they will be vacating around the country...

...tax deductions from writing off the old buildings they will be abandoning around the country...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:06 | 5217529 dumpster
dumpster's picture

zoom

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:04 | 5217530 dumpster
dumpster's picture

come to seattle .. booming strip malls , rents increasing in a ripple effect 30 miles  on the edges of city ..

seattle because of port , large tech companys .. microsoft amazon .. google , etc moving in... are bringing in higher pay folks

tech companys hiring in seattle because they can hire for less than san francisco ,,

buuildings all over for apt living .... traffice jammed in city .. new tunnel being built . down town bldg boom

university of washington hub of many things ,,

seattle is not part of economic down turn .. from the looks of the activity in the city

 

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:27 | 5215757 Thanatos
Thanatos's picture

Where nobody else wants to (or can) be...

That's where its "safe"

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:33 | 5215773 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Doesn't matter.

Cause either Ebola or ISIS or an asteroid, solar flare, gamma burst, Fukashima, earthquake, volcano, tsunami, plane crash, ice bomb, flesh eating bacteria, poor diet, cancer, stroke, coronary, car crash, train crash, drought, flood, tornado, hurricane, zombies, aliens, mass murderer or Obamacare will kill you!!!

 

But not necessarily in that order

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:54 | 5215833 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Yep, all that stuff will kill us, but none of it will bring down the markets, cause the Fed has our backs.

What could go wrong?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:37 | 5215920 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

After every human has died from the biowar, the WS algos will still trade with each other every day. As programmed.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:01 | 5216388 Kprime
Kprime's picture

skynet

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:36 | 5216932 tvdog
tvdog's picture

I sometimes wonder if the transhumanists are promoting their aims by making earth uninhabitable for carbon-based lifeforms.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:30 | 5215903 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You forgot CO2 ;-)

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:00 | 5216384 Kprime
Kprime's picture

and McDonalds

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 17:20 | 5217037 Seahorse
Seahorse's picture

and cow farts

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:11 | 5217552 Hulk
Hulk's picture

and explosive diarrhea from McDonalds...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:09 | 5215857 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Iceland

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:23 | 5215886 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Too many volcanoes.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:42 | 5215936 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

"Infinite" energy...

The hot water and electricity are virtually free.  They are currently expanding their greenhouse industry so as to supply most of their fresh fruits and vegetables locally, lots of sheep and fish.  The are in the very beginning steps of reforestation and if they can ever get that to take off they would have building materials to weather just about any shitstorm.  Oh and a LOT of clean, fresh water.

Iceland is certainly a good option.  

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:46 | 5215950 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The weather makes a Scottish winter look positively tropical.

But apart from that....

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:11 | 5216040 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

As someone who had the pleasure of living in Iceland for near 4 years I can assure that is not true.

The last two winters there the winters in NYC were much worse. Yes....it gets dark due to latitude....and seriously windy....but not really all that bad in comparison...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:34 | 5216101 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The women in Iceland are hot. Scotland not so much.  NY?  Subhuman types. 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:02 | 5216172 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

I agree Freddie. The 2 Icelandic women I went to school with were drop dead scary beautiful. However, they did not age well. At our reunion, they had lost their figures and had aged less than gracefully. Mr miffed was shocked and I beamed when he complemented me for what I was. I will say they were gracious and kind as always though. Quality people.

Miffed;-)

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 15:39 | 5216794 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Glad to see Mr. Miffed appreciates Mrs. Miffed.  ;-)

Yes - they can be scary pretty.  What is weird is most Scandinavian and Nordic women and men age fairly well. 

Stay away from the sun exposure, booze and carbs and they are usually pretty attractive.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 18:13 | 5217151 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Bring the best of both worlds together: a crossfit box in Reykjvik. Got to keep the Nordic chicks hot.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:13 | 5217556 Dave Thomas
Sun, 09/14/2014 - 23:52 | 5217856 Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL!  Bjork's TV repair show.   She is a slight oddly little elfin woman.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:23 | 5216904 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Yeah Freddie...but there is plenty of places you could get your white hood cleaned....

You racist asshole.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:12 | 5216426 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

MrButtoMcFarty,

 

What's not true about Iceland?

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:22 | 5216068 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The constant wind and the 20-hour winter nights would wear on my nerves.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:32 | 5215912 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

In mexico. they all left.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:38 | 5215924 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Herb Kohl and the Kohl klan are tribesman and Democrats.  I hope they get what they deserve.  They have their dual citizenship if things ever get really bad.   They and their State Dept Red Shield buddies brough in Somalis and other crap into Minn and Wisc.  This should be good for business F them.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:31 | 5216085 messymerry
messymerry's picture

ON THE MOON...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 14:13 | 5216562 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

Who had the job of catching rattlesnakes? Had to be a short lifespan for that guy.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 15:04 | 5216697 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

It's kinda heart warming that Herb Kohl is being crushed by the politics he espouses.

For Herb: FORWARD SOVIET!

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 20:50 | 5217518 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It is still safe to live on Q99X2 but you have to be willing to experience really strange perceptions. When I first went there I used to say to myself, "something doesn't seem right and I wonder if other people are thinking the same thing and wow those colors are really brilliant and this can't be fucking happening man, and so on."

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:20 | 5217569 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Standing ovation for a job well done for the arrogant corrupt incompetent narcissistic illegal alien muslim sociopathic patholigical liar in chief only interested in its celebrity grand imperial golf lifestyle on the backs of hard working tax paying US citizens.

Mon, 09/15/2014 - 03:20 | 5218022 JB
JB's picture

"WHERE IS IT SAFE TO LIVE?"

 

short answer: nowhere.

Longer answer: South America, but be prepared to leave your old life completely behind.

Mon, 09/15/2014 - 03:35 | 5218032 mt paul
mt paul's picture

WHERE IS IT SAFE TO LIVE?

 

Coldfoot alaska

60 miles north of the arctic circle

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:15 | 5215735 intric8
intric8's picture

I'm whipping out my credit card to pick my teeth. Cant afford dental floss these days.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:16 | 5215738 erkme73
erkme73's picture

You have teeth?  I can't afford a dentist

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:25 | 5215753 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

You have a dentist? I can't afford Obamacare?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:27 | 5215761 intric8
intric8's picture

I cant afford the penalty im supposed to pay because i cant afford obamacare

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:38 | 5215787 negative rates
negative rates's picture

No one can afford to bend over for Obamacare.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:39 | 5215791 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I detect a trend.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:47 | 5215816 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

It's not a trend until the gub'mint says it's a trend.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:14 | 5215871 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Or CNBC, whcih is of course not the govenment... right?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:27 | 5215896 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The wage earner is obviously distressed, so clearly this calls for the creation of a Credit Czar!

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:31 | 5215909 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

(Local News:)

The  CC Czar will be in town tomorow, dropping O-Cards from his Helicopter! Be at the Stadium at noon!

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:41 | 5216487 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Let's 'vote' on it.... cnbs has gotten even worse, if possible, over the past few months...have had any time to waste in the morning (getting ready, taking a dump, etc) the last few months. turned it on friday and they had this 'voting' thing going on....absolute BS. no wonder they have on 27k people per day following.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:41 | 5216947 tvdog
tvdog's picture

CNBC will keep on getting advertisers as long as they can claim that high-net-worth people are watching them.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:30 | 5215905 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hire someone to eat for you.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:24 | 5215751 booboo
booboo's picture

I will fund a plastic injection molded widow scraper handle that you slide your unused CC into the slot. I'm an idea guy but don't have the time for the process. I made millions funding my last idea, live tuna salad where live tuna is fed mayo, onions and pickle relish, BAM. just catch and grind.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:39 | 5215928 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

lol @ "unused"

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:17 | 5215739 Impoverished Ps...
Impoverished Psychologist's picture

NOOOOOO! Not Radio Shack. 

 

Where will I get spare parts for my TRS-80 now?

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:27 | 5215760 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

E-Bay.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:35 | 5215780 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I'd love to see locally owned electronic shops make a come back after Radio Shat goes away for good.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:44 | 5215809 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Nobody builds or fixes anything any more.

Cars are my hobby.  Nobody younger than me works on their car in their driveway any more.  When I was growing up there were always neighborhood kids leaning over the fender of their Mustang or Camaro on a warm Saturday.  Not the case any more.

By the same token, nobody builds Heathkit/RadioShack electronics kits any more.  Nobody buys spool of wire or soldering kits or electronics breadboards or individual speakers or strobe light kits..... all gone the way of the dodo.

When Radio Shack goes, NOTHING will replace it.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:48 | 5215814 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

This afternoon, my teenager and I are rewiring his C123.  Not because we cannot afford to have it done by a professional.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:49 | 5215818 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

re:  Ebay.

Nope...ebay has crashed...appears pretty widespread.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:07 | 5215847 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Ebay has been down most of the morning my son tells me.

 

As far as Kohls, JCP, etc go, the stuff needs to be reduced 60% or more to move some of the local managers tell me when I ask. They're pretty candid about beiing worried about the future.

Even the Asia head of Ralph Lauren said they cannot sell high dollar stuff anymore so they are moving more then 60% of their China factories to cheaper places like Vietnam and poss  Myanmar.

Strip malls mess up the landscape. How many donut places, car washers, nail places and postal stroes do we need?

The economy is Fugly and very distorted.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:12 | 5215865 yochananmichael
yochananmichael's picture

remember how the Flintstones recycled the same background scenery whenever Fred was driving?

 life imitates art.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:25 | 5215890 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Every Hanna Barbara 'toon does that. It's a '60's thang.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:26 | 5215897 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

What?! There aren't enough Kardashians to support the effete lackeys of the world? Who knew? LOL

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:45 | 5215947 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Ralph Laurne, I am sure, loves Obama.  His klan put em in power along with other liberals. 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:54 | 5215983 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Hey Freddie,

Why don't you look up the forced abortion slave labor manufacturing for RL in Sai Pan? 

Courtesy of your so called conservatives - Tom the Hammer Delay.

It's way time to get past this pigeon holing. They're all team players.

Mon, 09/15/2014 - 00:02 | 5217865 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

When I was a kid I built a Heathkit Sw-717 shortwave radio. Spent many long winter nights listening to shortwave stations and findng them on the map. Learned all about Tahiti, Papua New Guinea, Uganda and dozens of other places. 

Not one kid in a million these days would ever do such a thing. 

I learned about electronics, geography, politics and proaganda. From a radio. 

If you'll excuse me I have to go play Candy Crush and Slappy Fish.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:57 | 5215995 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Nobody younger than me works on their car in their driveway any more.

I'd have to guess a lot of that has to do with the dependability and long life of modern automobiles.  I can remember in my early days people thinking I was crazy for buying a Toyota with 40,000 miles on it because everybody knows a car is worn slap out by 35,000 miles.  A kid now can buy their Honda with 100,000 miles on it and expect to get another 100,000 fairly trouble free miles out of it.  My Dodge truck has 130,000 tough miles on it and never fails to perform.  Other than changing the oil every 7,500 miles there's not much to it.

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:05 | 5216015 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Even the paint is better now.  I had a 1990 Toyota Tercel that started showing rust after 4 years, and I washed it weekly in the winter (we live in a road-salt state).  But my 1993 didn't show any rust until it was12 years old.  Something happened in the early '90s with that technology.

I grew up working on cars, too.  My first car was a 1968 Plymouth Fury, and then I had a 1962 Rambler, among other beaters that required frequent attention. The difference was, I could fix them with standard tools.  Today I can barely change the oil and keep the fluid levels right.  I had to modify a socket to get a spark plug out last time I tried, and as far as I could tell, I might have had to pull the engine to get to the PCV valve.

I could climb over the grill of my 1962 Rambler and crouch down, feet on the ground, and pull the hood down over myself.  Now if I dump a bucket of water over the engine, I'm not sure any of it would get to the ground.  I don't notice any better performance or gas mileage, either.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:32 | 5216279 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Used to get about 22-23 MPG on the highway with a 1964 Dodge Dart.  That's what I get now with my 2010 Ford Escape made of fiberglass and weighing a lot less.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:37 | 5216296 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

So true, I have a 90's Blazer with the 4.3L V6. I can get 22mpg on the highway.  That is all you will get from these 3.7L V6s coming out of Japan in their SUV's

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:55 | 5216365 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Before the Escape I had a lifted 1989 Blazer, same motor, 4WD. Vehicle made of steel.  I loved that thing.  Just needed something more for highway travel than back roads.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:51 | 5216357 oudinot
oudinot's picture

A Dodge truck that was reliable?

Crazy talk.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 15:50 | 5216821 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> was reliable?

Is reliable.  I was a lifelong Toyota fan and traded in my last Tacoma on my Doge.  I never, ever, thought I'd own a Chrysler product.  But I wantd a diesel for some heavy hauling.  My Toyota had nothing on this Dodge.  Surprising but true.  I fully expect to put 300,000 miles on this thing if I live that long.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:58 | 5216163 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Dude, it is very difficult to work on the newer cars these days.  I work on my shit, but it is a '92.  The only thing I'd be scared to do is to rebuild the transmission. 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:48 | 5216500 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I sometimes share your sentiments, but when I examine my experiences I realize I disagree about both younger folks working on cars and about DIY electronics.

I started working/playing with cars before there were emissions controls. My son, who never really showed any interest in cars except as transportation, surprised me one day when he bought a 5-year-old BMW M3 and then proceeded to perform extensive modifications to it, including an aftermarket supercharger kit. As a result of that, I also got to know a few of his friends, who had built up Mitsubishi Evos (from the folks that brought us the ZERO - the one that flew, not the one that bombed) and various other hopped up rice burners. What I haven't seen is American kids working on American cars.

On the electronics front, I've observed that the new thing is the inexpensive computer/electronics kit. Think Arduino, or Raspberry Pi, or a host of other similar things. I built a Heathkit radio way back when, but there wasn't a lot of learning involved in soldering things together. Now, one can get an Arduino, go to Digi-key or Mouser, pick up some sensors, small motors, etc. and breadboard some neat stuff using one's own software to control analog or digital interfaces. Believe me, doing this is very educational, and there are numerous examples on Youtube of tons of neat stuff  that actually required more than "solder wire A to pin B".

As an aside, how many neighborhoods have lots of kids of approximately the same age to share knowledge about cars or anything else these days? I was fortunate in that every house on the block had two or three children within a year of my age. And with the proliferation of gated communities, how many places even allow working on a car in the driveway or under the proverbial shade tree? Things have changed significantly in my lifetime. Some for the better, some for the worse. And many are simply different.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:41 | 5216946 g speed
Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:46 | 5216953 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Fry's will replace Radio Shack.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:42 | 5217609 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

"Nobody builds or fixes anything any more."

 

I built a power-center and container for my 4x4 battery arrays (24v). Bought all the wood and bolts, raw from Home Depot, most of the wiring and bus bars + volt meters etc from online sources. It has gourney wheels (I decided to make mine portable - but it's only so portable carrying 16 lead-acid batteries @ 1050lbs (not counting the framing)). 2/0awg wiring, 3kw pure sine wave inverter. 4 charge controllers, 250amp disconnect - fed by 4 pairs of 10awg wire coming from my  solar arrays. I built all this last summer. Does this count?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:50 | 5215963 theundergroundm...
theundergroundmovement's picture

Soon you won't find those old parts on eBay anymore... They are purging small sellers left and right in some sort of quest to become the worlds Mega Mall.... According to a recent article (I don't recall where I saw it), they "have proudly added 140 Major Retailers and Brands to their Partner Program" and "70% of our sales are new items".  

I am sure another site or two will pop up to replace FleeceBay,  but if you are hoping to find that old part or collectors item there, forget it.  Sellers like me are moving out of there in droves.  The atmosphere from their management is intollerable towards small sellers. 

And incidentally, I am working on an alternate (www.offerama.com) but it still has a long ways to go and there are other sites much further along. 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:32 | 5215908 homiegot
Sun, 09/14/2014 - 21:17 | 5217565 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Hey Pit Pat, avoid the capacitor grab bags, especailly the electrolytics, they're all about 25+ years old and kinda dried out. God I wish Holdsfeldt electronics was still around.

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:12 | 5216044 Peanut Butter E...
Peanut Butter Engineer's picture

Get them at amazon or flebay for tenth of the cost with free shipping: crazy price

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:20 | 5215742 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

LTP, buddy. Buying what you don't need, eating what is bad for you, and having an diiferent outfit to wear every day has been trending out of style for a long time. "Space Available" is where it's at.  

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:26 | 5215894 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Go long 'Retail Space Available'

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:48 | 5215954 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

Sullen, quiet employees in a retail store is a signal that the store will be gone soon.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:49 | 5216340 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Sullen, quiet shoppers just browsing, seen in many stores, is an earlier signal the stores will be gone soon lol

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:21 | 5215743 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

My wife buys most of our clothes today online.  If you're going to invest in any companies... try UPS or FedEx.  It looks like their futures are pretty well cemented for a while.  (Maybe Amazon, too... with those soon-to-come drones delivering everything you need right to your house.)

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:27 | 5215762 booboo
booboo's picture

The Amazon FAA trial flight path goes over my land, you would be surprised the amount of folks that will still buy shotgun peppered products on Ebay.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:26 | 5215898 max2205
max2205's picture

If 350 mm people buy 1 shirt at 80% off will it make a sound in the woods? 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:35 | 5215914 nmewn
nmewn's picture

OT: Here's a shirt, coolest one I've seen in a while...

http://stickerarmory.com/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=2&products_id=153

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:59 | 5215999 BrokusDickusMaximus
BrokusDickusMaximus's picture

That shirt will land you on an alphabet organization list if you aren't already on one.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:28 | 5216262 nmewn
nmewn's picture

;-)

I'm sure I'm already on several, so theres nothing to do but go for the record...lol.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:51 | 5215824 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

And there's always Goodwill, too.  Scored two high-quality sweaters last weekend for about $8.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:16 | 5215876 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The second-hand shops are booming. 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:37 | 5216294 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

They took off soon after the 2008 crash.  In one pretty upscale area I know, when the Barnes/Noble and that other book retailer went out, both spaces will filled with second hand stores.   Good thrift stores are busy all the time, at least when I check them out.  It's also pretty evident that many things sold on Ebay are thrift store items being cleaned up and over-hyped.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:25 | 5216246 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

I got my "new" GAP carpenter jeans at the thrift store in excellent condition for four bucks with the senior discount.  Same quality as the $19.99 Wrangler carpenters at Target.  (I looked there first and couldn't find my size.)

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 17:30 | 5217063 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I do most of my shopping at Goodwill.  We have a local one that I like the way they train employees with cool things like colored sticker based pricing.  

That way they can lower the prices based on calendar rather than running around and doing all that manual work.  Those skills should be important as big brand stores  start instituting same pricing...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:12 | 5215862 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I don't understand how women can buy clothes from the internet. My wife can not depend on a medium size fitting her let alone a size 8 or whatever she wears fitting. I know, I stand around and watch it happen. I will not even buy clothes for me online because no matter how it looks in the picture I need to see it in my hand. Having to send something back is way too much effort for me when I can just go to town and get what I need.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:36 | 5215918 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

that's why you go to town first, check out everything in the mirror, then go home and order the same items either from e-bay, or Amazon and have a drone drop it on your door mat for 1/2 the cost. the high/main street is the new 'changing cubicle' soon to disapear, to be replaced only with outlets that provide procucts unavailable on-line. (A ready to drink mocha, a warm bagel, a toasted sandwich, a sexy barrista...)

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:58 | 5216376 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

But you need to make sure what you try on in the store and what you then buy on-line are the EXACT same thing or the friggin' sizing will be wrong.  There is zero consistency from one manufacturer/label to another.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:08 | 5216414 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

What a great plan. Spend the gas to go to the store and back and eat lunch while you are out so you can save three bucks on Ebay. Jesus

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 15:14 | 5216729 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Don't forget the happy ending. Best local there I think.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:45 | 5216125 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Sounds like your wife likes to have the FedEx man comin' around often....

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:33 | 5215901 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

You can find some nice retail on Ebay and Amazon but I stick with the ‘New” only. The used stuff is misrepresented 80% of the time according to the Ebay seller blog. That’s been my experience too. There’s almost always a stain or small tear they somehow ‘forget’ to mention on the used stuff. You’re pretty well protected on the brand new stuff. People will not buy things unless they are reduced 50% -90% nowadays. That’s why I also think house prices will fall when those people wake up to the realization they are overpaying by about 50-80% for that box called a house. Not many houses would sell if people had to actually put down 20% since most cannot afford ahouse these days.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:24 | 5216242 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

True dat. I got a nice merino wool sweater on Amazon in black in my size for a good price. I like merino wool more then cashmnere now b/c it's ultra soft and EZ to care for.

 

I wont pay moar then a certain amount since I'm a Cheap Bastard but even Amazon has some good deals these days and 99.9% of thir stuff is new. I'm looking forward to when a drone drops my order on my front lawn. I wonder how they do "Signature Confirmation" with that?

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 14:00 | 5216531 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Plus you could capture the drone, disassemble it for the parts, and sell them - on Amazon.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 18:27 | 5217180 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

A pleasant voice will emminate from the drone directing you to very politely look at the blinking light while your identity is being verified.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 12:41 | 5216311 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Just have to be extra careful when buying used on Ebay but it often works out.  It's much easier to leave negative feedback now (sellers can't retaliate) so I just stick with those with impeccable records.  There is a benefit to clothes shopping in person.  With so many manufacturers and labels out there sizing is extremely inconsistent among them.  Sometimes I need a 32 waist, sometimes a 30, sometimes a 31.  All over the place.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 13:00 | 5216385 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Handful; You are right on the down payments for houses.

In Northern Ontario,Canada,  which has been in a recession since 2000 (once the price of lumber broke),banks do not provide financing for many houses, commerical properties.

Hence, real estate  is priced as a down payment-20% or so..

I bought an apartment complex for $150,000 Canadian ($135k FRN) : 8 two bedroom apartments, 8,400 square feet-$18 a square foot.  However,  with the local taxes ($6k per year), heating the bitch , $500 for rent apiece,  the price was definitely not a steal.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 16:57 | 5216977 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Clothes are one thing I never buy online. You can't go by sizes - 38" waist could be too small, 36" could be too big.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:24 | 5215749 Reaper
Reaper's picture

The government has solved the parking problems at the malls.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:57 | 5215840 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

There are still malls left?

Dead mall photos:   http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/completely-surreal-pictures-of-americas-a...

 

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:16 | 5215874 sleigher
sleigher's picture

Imagine all the steel and aluminum one could get to sell to the recycler...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:19 | 5215879 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Had a font row seat as an over the road truck driver starting in 2008. (Yes, incredibly...I still have my license.) the most poignant moment was driving into the Ghost City of Los Angeles.

Barely any traffic! Incredible. By 2012 it was back to "normalcy" but that sure wasn't true in the rest of the country. Never had a problem parking that rig...head straight to the nearest Wall Mart/abandoned mall and spend the free time "window shopping" in comfort.

Don't even get me started on the bubble in distribution centers. New Jersey, Atlanta, Chicago, East LA/Bakersfield. These are absolutely HUGE facilities in PRIME locations. I'd be the only truck there when I would arrive. Simply put there is nothing left to build in the USA.

Rebuild maybe...but not build. Sales plunging in McDonalds is really quite extraordinary. Don't underestimate the ability for stuff in the USA to be sold for a dollar. It only costs these places ten cents to make your drink (cup included...and as many straws as you want. Plus napkins.)

There is no problem of shortages but there is a huge problem of debt combined with a mid cycle correction.

New York City is currently budgeting AND SPENDING (since 9/11) 100 billion for their subway system. The whole thing is a scam. The only other place doing the same thing is...of course...Washington DC.

You wanna talk stranded capital...lyft and uber will render all public transportation obsolete in ten years.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 17:08 | 5217011 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Maybe no need for distribution centers in L.A., but definitely a need for truck stops with parking. Trucks park by the side of the Grapevine to get their mandatory hours off. If my company hadn't had a property east of L.A., there would have been no way I could have stayed legal.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 18:34 | 5217200 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

+1 fantastic observations.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:27 | 5215759 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I haven't seen a mall this empty since Volcker Shock...

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:30 | 5215764 Old_Dog
Old_Dog's picture

I live in the Milwaukee area close to Kohl's corporate headquarters.  I have spoken with friends who work there, and unless something has changed in the last few years, Kohl's MO is to mark down and sell from the store everything shipped to the store.  They never trans-ship from one store to another (or at least the didn't in the past).  If you can't find your item or size at one store, they will call another.  If they happen to find what you are looking for, it's your drive to the other location.

 

The markdowns will continue until morale improves.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:32 | 5215774 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I own my BMW. Thank you very much.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:36 | 5215786 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

AGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

Don't get me started on fucking BEEEEEMERS!!

Or high priced semi auto POS rifles with aluminum receivers..

 

ARRRGGGGHHHHHHH    GGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....   

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:26 | 5215893 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I am sure you do not mean Beemers like my R100.

I can fix a motorcycle like a madman.

Grew up gnawing on Trumpets.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 17:10 | 5217016 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Nothing says, "I'm an asshole," like driving a BMW.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 18:38 | 5217214 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

The R100 is a motorcycle, and you don't drive it, you ride. HTH

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 22:17 | 5217665 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Nothing says jealous redneck more than ragging on German car owners.

I guess a Mercedes W123 Diesel owner is also an arrogant asshole?

Fuck you and your Pontiac POS.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 09:53 | 5215831 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Finding 740's on craigslist for under $1000...all I got to do is fix them.  :)

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:03 | 5215849 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

They have bad wiring and bad capacitors.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:12 | 5215863 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

No worries...I'd rather work on an old motorcycle anyway.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:24 | 5215887 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

That's my vehicle of choice too. "Just change the oil and keep the chain tightened." Prices for tires are simply way overpriced. It only costs them five bucks to make even the top of the line ones.

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 10:49 | 5215961 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Buddy changes the rear tire on his R1 every 3000 miles...!  My FZ6 lasts twice as long.  

Sun, 09/14/2014 - 11:00 | 5216002 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

If you ride it like you stole it, they don't last so long.

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