What Happens When "Scotland" Comes To Spain?

Tyler Durden's picture

Friday saw the largest demonstration in the history of Barcelona with 1.8 million people showing up, exceeding all previous records, calling for Catalan independence...

As Martin Armstrong notes, demonstrators were waving independence flags and wearing yellow-and-red shirts with the phrase “Now is the time” shouting “Independencia!” as they swarmed into the semiautonomous area in northeastern Spain that hails Barcelona as its capital.

What is clear, we are seeing the beginning stages of what we have warned about – the rise of civil unrest that leaded to nations dividing or being overthrown in revolutions. What has taken place in Scotland is by no means going unnoticed.

“Independence, independence”, has been the new cry of the people today in Spain in the center of the Catalan capital. Two main roads that converge at a place filled over a distance of seven miles with people. Here, a “V” for “Victoria” (Victory) was formed. The amount of protesters is very impressive and the police have been gearing up for this because they know what is coming.

Catalonia has 7.6 million inhabitants and this is a very important region for Spain. Despite the economic crisis and an unemployment rate of more than 22 percent, Catalonia is around one fifth of total gross domestic product of the Southern European country is generated.  

Proponents of secession from Spain think an independent Catalonia would achieve a higher standard of living.

*  *  *

Coming to another European country near you soon...

*  *  *

Of course, this doesn't help...

*  *  *

Just as we warned previously...

The history of Europe over the last 100 years shows that austerity can have severe consequences and outcomes and perhaps most notably, the independent variable that did result in more unrest: higher levels of government debt in the first place.

 

*  *  *

And here is Deutsche Bank's take on how this might escalate...

From Edinburgh to Barcelona

The unexpected increase in the uncertainty about the outcome of next week’s Scottish independence referendum – see accompanying article in this issue of Focus Europe – re-focused press and clients’ attention on the possibility of a similar referendum in Catalonia on 9 November. The large demonstration in Barcelona on 11 September contributed to elevate media interest.

Catalonia matters

It will take years for Spain to work through the high public and private debt, but the country tends now to be described as a poster-child of the euro-area approach to the crisis along with Ireland, while France and above all Italy struggle to recover. Furthermore, contrary to France, the Spanish government is in a more solid position, and, contrary to Italy, it showed a greater determination in implementing structural reforms.

 

However, calls for a self-determination referendum in Catalonia add a significant element of uncertainty. Catalonia accounts for a larger proportion (18.8%) of the national economy than Scotland (8%). Indeed, Catalonia is the largest region in Spain (Figure 2).

Catalonia’s referendum would have less clear consequences than Scotland’s

The consequence of the Scottish referendum will be clear: a yes would imply that Scotland becomes independent and Great Britain would be a less united kingdom. The Catalan referendum would differ in at least two elements:

First, and most important, the Catalan referendum, if it takes place, would probably have a very different (lack of) legal basis. The Spanish Constitution opens the possibility of referenda, but specifically excludes from such a procedure the "basic principles" of the Spanish constitution, which include Spain's unity. Indeed, it appears highly likely that the Spanish Constitutional Court will reject Catalonia's request for a self-determination referendum to be held on 9 November.

 

Second, even if a non-binding referendum were to take place, it would probably ask two questions: (i) "Do you want Catalonia to become a state?" and (ii) "If yes, do you want this state to be independent?"

Will the Catalan referendum take place?

The referendum is promoted by the Catalan President Artus Mas, leader of Convergence and Union (CiU) and the junior regional government partner Republican Left of Catalonia (Esquerra Republicana per Catalunya – ERC). The latter is a more radical pro-independent party. The 2012 CiU-ERC government pact is based on the commitment that a self-determination referendum will take place by end-2014 unless socio-economic conditions require a postponement.

Assuming that as expected the constitutional court will declare the referendum illegal, we see four broad scenarios:

(I) Catalan President Mas and Spanish PM Rajoy’s reach a compromise and both referendum and early regional elections are avoided (positive for a macro-stability point of view). Rajoy could change approach and promise a constitutional reform after the end-2015 general election along with greater financial autonomy (for example in terms of tax treatment).

 

— Push-back: If Rajoy is seen as too lenient, his PP party could pay a political cost. But if Mas does not obtain major concessions, his position would weaken to the advantage of ERC. If a compromise was easy to reach we would not have come to the current situation. ERC could also react by triggering a fall of the Catalan government.

 

(II) Mas triggers early elections using the result as a de facto proindependence vote (potentially negative for a macro-stability point of view).

 

— Push-back: The risk for Mas would be to lose the presidency as his current junior coalition partner ERC is leading in opinion polls. The eventuality that Catalonia, contrary to Scotland, is not allowed to hold a referendum could further boost consensus for ERC.

 

(III) A variation of the second scenario is a crisis triggered by ERC (potentially negative for a macro-stability point of view). In this case CiU could try to form another government coalition (e.g. with the socialists) but the risk, however, would be that ERC would gain further consensus ahead of the next elections to the cost of the less radical CiU.

 

— Push-back: CiU will be perfectly aware of this risk – hence they will have to avoid providing a clear justification to ERC. This in turn complicates even further the relationship with Madrid.

 

(IV) Catalonia goes ahead with the referendum even if the Constitutional Court declares it illegal (potentially negative for a macro-stability point of view). According to the Financial Times (11 Sept.), the majority of analysts believes the vote will have to be called off after the Constitutional Court’s ruling. There are probably at least three reasons behind this view. First, going ahead with an illegal referendum could split Mas’ party. Second, a significant part of the Catalan population could boycott the referendum if it is declared illegal. Third, the referendum would have no legal validity and Madrid could argue that nothing has changed – it could also complicate the relationship of Catalonia with EU partners. However, we would not discard the possibility of a referendum taking place on 9 November:

 

— Push-back: ERC could push to hold an informal referendum anyway. Alternatively, Mas may want to avoid losing the initiative at the advantage of ERC and also use the result of the referendum to strengthen his bargaining position with Madrid.

Which scenario is more likely? Toward a muddle-through approach

In cases as complex as the one above the most likely scenario can sometimes be identified by finding the dominant strategy (in terms of game theory). However, it is extremely difficult to identify such a strategy given the above described constellations of incentives and constraints. For example, PM Rajoy could opt for a divide-and-rule strategy by trying to entice Mas’ CiU away from the alliance with ERC via material concessions. But that would cause the fall of the current government and more importantly could further boost ERC’s projected share of seats. On top of that, Rajoy will also have to take into account the repercussions of his concessions on other regions – for example on the Basque regions. The risk of ending up in a “prisoner’s-dilemma” conundrum, where the least optimal solution is selected, is material.

Alternatively, we could resort to economic arguments. The scenarios that lead to the greater economic benefit (i.e. probably scenario I above) should become the most likely. The central government may hope that the improving economic conditions will quell the demand for independence. Although it is true that the economic crisis shone a light on the financial transfers from Catalonia to the central government, our understanding is that the drivers of the independence movement in Catalonia are beyond economic considerations. They are rooted in a centuries-long history. This gives a strong emotional content to the debate beyond pure economic considerations like in Scotland.

The Scottish referendum and reactions to it will matter for Catalonia

Next week’s Scottish referendum could affect the likelihood of the above four scenarios via at least three elements.

The result: a yes vote would probably boost the independence movement.

 

The EU partner reactions: the pro-independent Catalans are in favour of Catalonia as an independent state within the European Union.3 If Scotland vote yes, joining the EU could become a complicated process. The European Union could be weary of being seen as supporting Scotland’s independence given the situation in Ukraine. Equally if not more relevant, a number of European countries will be also wary of the consequences for their own territorial unity, for example Belgium and to a lesser extent Italy. Overall, exiting the euro-crisis calls for further European integration. A break-up of the euro-area fourth largest country would be perpendicular to this trajectory.

 

Markets and business reaction: a negative reaction by the market and businesses potentially reallocating away from Scotland in case of a yes vote could weaken the pro-independence movement in Catalonia.

* * *

Opinion polls on Catalonia independence

No regular, independent opinion polls are available to assess support for the pro-independence vote. However, there appears to have been an increase in the support for pro-independence over the past 3 years.

According to the State pollster CIS this year around 45% of the Catalan supports full independence, 20% a federal state and 23% an autonomous region (Reuters).

The Center for Opinion Studies of the Catalan presidency reported a 54.7% support for independence in 2013. The 2014 survey provides a less clear reading.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
JustObserving's picture

Let Freedom ring.  Though the fascists may protest.

How about some freedom in the land of the free?  Freedom from the droner-in-chief.  And from infinite NSA spying.  And infinite Fed manipulations.

Portuguese Revolutionary's picture

Unfortunately all these movements won't lead to freedom. It's all part of their plan: "Divide and conquer"...

Europe will soon become a giant bonfire and those that will get burned will be the wrong ones.

Jlasoon's picture

"Vive Le Quebec Libre"

Wait wrong country 

mvsjcl's picture

And, hopefully, a different result.

Manthong's picture

What happens when Spain comes to The Most Serene Republic of Venice? 

Fiat Envy's picture

Quebec is a parasite theatening to leave its host.  Their plan for "independence"  says they still use Canadian dollars, still get transfer payment (read handouts) and retain their Canadian passports but not pay their share of Canada's debt that was run up almost entirely by PMs from Quebec.

jarana's picture

True.

Notice the perfectly organized yellow and red dressed people. Organization funded by Spanish public funds.

Funny, but not free.

NotApplicable's picture

Whoever made/sold those T-shirts are the true winners in this game.

Luis_'s picture

Yes, they were 15€ apiece and sold like hot cakes...

teslaberry's picture

in order to conquer your enemy---always give him an escape route. 

 

the enemy for the EU is the body politic of the peasants. the peasants are their livestock, their body politic threeatening to leave the EU is the potential threat.. the escape route for the livestock is to form their own 'regions' that come at the expense of who else-?  this allows their body politic to be frame shifted away from larger nation states. this is how the austrian hungarian empire was dealt with. 

but why would the EU do this?, because  the nation states governments that depend on the livestock for taxes. are a competing set of baby sharks trying to get money from the increasingly stretched livestock. they also are an organized group that the livestock can pressure to take action against the EU. they represent not only their own mafia, but a potentional organizing force fo the preasants.

 

in the process of destroying nation states by way of a streak of 'indepdence movemnets' that lead to whole sale balkanization---------the EU further cements itself as the glue keeping together the entire set of regions. 

 

the EU will INCREASE the relative abilty to consolidate power over its member 'states'. its revenue will remain unchallenged ( i'll admit,---not that i'm an expert in EU revenue raising sources ) .

 

balkanization is going to make the central corporate international governance via regional super states like the EU and AMERO,  STRONGER. 

 

this might occur with or without a third world war. but either way, it's the next political phase of global consolidation. that---or straight up anarchy for a while. 

free_lunch's picture

If the peasants want real freedom, they should demand 2 simple things:

 

1) Demand a debt free national currency, nothing more, nothing less.

2) Demand that the national treasury puts their complete accountancy on-line (which is already digital I presume, so not hard to do at all) . Searchable for every citizen to track every tax dollar/EURO coming in and being spend by their trustworthy politicians..

 

All other issues will resolve automatically as a result.

teslaberry's picture

you are super naive my friend. 

 

the romans had gold coinage. you can have slavery and empire with a gold backed currency as well. 

read your history. 

 

the peasants don't get freedom by demanding it. some of them get freedom by becoming nobility or kkings the rest die and have kids and the process repeats. 

r00t61's picture

These plebs look like they are stepping outside the boundaries of their designated free-speech zone.

Where are the riot police to maintain public safety?

/s

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

They are outside the free speech zone.  Send in the drones.

Emergency Ward's picture

pepper spray and fire hoses to the fore!  undercover police throw your molotov cocktails, now!

El Oregonian's picture

Basques are a little more passionate about their independence.

Idaho potato head's picture

Rebels in East Ukraine aka Novo rossia are right up there.

Antifaschistische's picture

So, why is Western Ukraine trying to be a part of a club that millions of other are trying to seek their independence from?

To me...this is more cultural than economic.   Liberal immigration policies has degraded the historical cultures of Spain, Italy, France, Germany, etc.   When it comes down to economic survival...national pride and cultural unity will once again become important.  This fraternalization of cultures will seek to segregate themselves from the riff-raff resulting from immigration and otherwise domestic scumbags.

Modern "sub divisions" is just a very small indicator of the steps in that direction.   Independence movements are a large step.   Eventually, we will see the elimination of the ability to "become" citizens...and visas will be restricted.

GO SPAIN

GO SCOTLAND

jarana's picture

Yes, we start by trying to be the less unemployed part of Spain.

Then we will dress ourselves with green, white and red clothes and take a beautiful picture from the air with Spanish public funds.

Luis_'s picture

That was true a few years ago but not nowadays. There aren't comparable demonstrations in the Basque Country.

You should take into account that the Basque Country already enjoys a special economic treatment in Spain (they pay less taxes to the central government than other regions like Catalunya). So they are less in need of asking for more independence from Madrid.

Midstyles's picture

my co-worker's step-aunt makes $76 /hour on the laptop . She has been fired from work for nine months but last month her payment was $16491 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Get More Information... www.payvalt.com

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

We can really simplify all this:  SEPARATE THE BANKSTERS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD.

How?  Well, we keep the Constitution in mind and in our hearts, while we start with their names, coordinates and FULL profile.  IOW:  do an "NSA" on these guys.  With hardcopy backups, for obvious reasons:  When the Net goes dark, for good.

p.s. Religion was invented for more than social stability for the rich and powerful.  It was invented to keep the poor from killing the rich, and the rich in the lifestyle to which they feel entitled.  Look at any point in history, or at ANY culture, and you will see that it is so.

StychoKiller's picture

Dammit Jim, just lob some photon torpedoes on D.C. and Wall St!

TeamDepends's picture

The next two years or so are going to be quite the spectacle. People suffering from terminal normalcy bias simply aren't going to make it, the changes too profound, the chaos too terrifying, their hearts frozen with fear.

kowalli's picture

You need to do a referendum in Texas if you have a ballZ ofc...

homiegot's picture

Scotland comes to Texas.

lastdinosaur's picture

Right on JustObserver - the only solution is dissolution - better via ballot than mayhem - US will collapse and it will be an exciting glorious day -  the beginning of a fighting chance for liberty.

There are four collapse timing possibilities. First, it all falls down before November 2016 with Obama manning the rudder. In short order government benefits are gone - Ferguson, MO writ large and Obama either letting it go or suppressing the haves defending their stuff. This will be bloody for those unfortunate to be in the path of these hordes. But remember 9/11 Flight 93. The instant these passengers put it together from a cell call they went into action - "let's roll." God Bless them, they are our beacon. It is unimaginable that the military and law enforcement are going to follow Obama into battle against Americans, though they may have mercenaries lined up. Still, this is a big country with a population not to be messed with once it is time to "let's roll." The deer hunting licenses from last year totaled 750,000 in Pennsylvania, 700,000 in my wonderful Michigan, 600,000 for Wisconsin and 250,000 in West Virginia alone. So aside from some anti-American military / law enforcement and a handful of hired guns (I just don't think there will be trident subs in the Great Lakes) what are Democrat voting-blocks (intercity blacks and Latinos, LGBTs single females, etc.) going to do. I can't wait to see that movie. Bottom line - though brutal, America will win.

The second scenario is collapse happens after November 2016 with Hillary as president. Most likely, the same result as pre-November 2016 with Obama. I just don't see her astride a stallion, looking like Washington, leading the First-Cav against let's say ~ 100 million armed, pissed off Americans.

A third scenario is that collapse happens after November 2016 with a RINO president. I'm not sure this would be better than Obama or Hillary presiding because we patriots, after defending our communities from onslaughts, will be confused as President (Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush etc.) desperately tries to get the toothpaste back into the tube without realizing / admitting the whole house is gone. This could bump along in a bipartisan haze until finally a Ronald Reagan / Ted Cruz is elected. Though we could end up with an FDR and we are back in the pit. The fourth situation is collapse under President Cruz. There is little doubt he would recognize the complete reset imperative and get on with it. As noted, far from a collapse being something to fear or unfathomable misery, under Cruz after the crisis has been addressed and digested, I expect we would experience a torrent of real work, real responsibility building toward real prosperity (sorry about the reals but since Reagan it has been unreal).

The greatest triumph of a Cruz presidency would be the annihilation of post-constitutionalism. This couldn't happen without a bone shaking crisis. We are over the cliff and no conservative can change that, not that the MSM and Democrats would allow it anyway. We must have the big-bang. Hence welcoming the inevitable financial collapse is entirely rational.

If you hear mention of some rumor about big-trouble in the derivatives-world or that Bohner has agreed with dear leader to, ah, save our pensions by stocking them with Yellen-bucks, you will know it is too late to prepare. Had you prepared this is probably what you would do:

  1. Own physical gold and silver;
  2. Cash;
  3. Bank accounts moved to a community bank.
  4. Two month supply of the stuff you need on a daily or regular basis.
  5. Guns and ammo;
  6. Barterable items, such as liquor. and
  7. Though difficult for most, moved out of a large city where mobs can easily attack.
    1. Move everything but defense, national tax system, minimum necessary interstate regulations etc. to the states.
    2. Back on a gold standard that Russia and China appear to be headed for already.
    3. Except for certain National Parks, auction off Federal lands.
    4. Send Geraldo to search the New York Fed gold vaults.
    5. Inform the Mexican government that we are declaring a two mile no-go zone from our border south. Breaching this zone will be met with lethal force. There will be deployments of as many special-op teams with snipers and drones as needed. Children arriving will be detained and immediately driven, with full military escort, to Chihuahua. Finally, inform Mexico we will be releasing all illegals in US prisons to them.
    6. Impeachment and conviction of Federal judges (including Supreme Court Justices) who nullify the Constitution. Yes Virginia, there really is a Constitution. Let's all find out what is says.
    7. End our memberships in NATO and the UN if it hasn't happened naturally. Use ad hoc alliances for specific situations.
    8. Military presences abroad ended.
    9. Relations with Russia and China should focus on our same enemy Islamofacsism.
    10. Build "iron dome" and upgrade and modernize our nuclear triad.
    11. Support for Caroline Glick's Israeli "one state solution."
    12. Appoint Kerry permanent envoy to Gaza.
  8.  

    Except for #7, these preparations don't cost you anything.

     

    If we happen to luck out having Cruz on the deck when it hits, this is what I would hope for:

     

    We cannot get out from under this Marxist/progressive totalitarianism without an unescapable financial collapse. Hard work, responsibility, thrift and character are the price all patriots will be glad to pay for a return to civil society.

BlindMonkey's picture

I think you are selling short Hillary's willingness to order the deaths of Americans without remorse. She knows that greatness in history sits atop of a mountain of dead bodies. 

bonin006's picture

Never forget the witch cackling "We came, we saw, he died"

Freddie's picture

GOP-e or Cruz?  After what the GOP-e did to the conservative in the Mississippi Senate primary with Thad Cochran stealing it with black Dem votes - I have zero confidence in the RINO NeoCon amnesty scum who are as evil and the very evil Democrats.

rubiconsolutions's picture

"If we happen to luck out having Cruz on the deck when it hits..."

Doesn't his wife work for Goldman Sachs? Cruz would be no better than Obama, maybe worse. He would see to it that the Middle East becomes a conflagration. But hey, if you own shares in Raytheon you'd probably clean up....until the fallout kills you.


HubCityMan's picture

Nearly definitively well stated and laid out LastDino..."Connecting-the-dots", obviously we Authentic Americans ("Un-reconstructed Southerners") can only Pray and hope that such favourable and inspiring events in Scotland and Spain, et al, lead to the rightful restoration of our true Constitutional Democratic Republic of Republics [Sovereign States]--The Confederate States of America. (Though we're painfully aware that even "God's Chosen People" remained enslaved, oppressed, and subjugated by their next-door-neighbors the Egyptions for 400 years, and our Country has only been under the Yankee Union heel for 150 years, so since--in no wise are we Confederate Americans better than our spiritual Jewish Forefathers--under God and by Heaven we may yet have to patiently "wait awhile", but God forbid it be another 250 years!)  DEO VINDICE ("God Will Vindicate The South")

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Come on, Texas, get your act together and tell DC to go fuck itself.

himaroid's picture

When the Republic of Texas agreed to join the Union, they explicitly reserved the right to withdraw should they choose to do so.

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Time to git 'er done!

Any decree that states a state cannot leave a union is worthless.  You want it bad enough?  You do it and deal with the broken glass later.

EINSILVERGUY's picture

I'm a Texan and would approve of a fight for secession based on current conditions  but you are factually incorrect. Texas was never granted the ability to secede from the Union.  Texas could petition to be divided into 5 states with an appropriate number of senators, but it did not reserve the right to secede at any point when it was brought into the Union

 

himaroid's picture

That's OK, these guys are talking like Scotland is already decided. I like the way they talk about "devolution" and "home rule". This could happen here.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/13/observer-view-scott...

P.S. I could not remember the details of the Texas deal. It has been awhile. But I did have close relatives, all with my family name who were involved in Independence for Texas. One of their names is on the Alamo Cenotaph. Another signed the Declaration. Another was a famous Ranger. Several fought for Texas in the war for independence. If y'all secede I hope you will welcome me there. I will come.

newdoobie's picture

You can go to hell, an I will go to Texas

 

D. Crockett

DetectiveStern's picture

I can not fucking wait for this vote. 

Martin Silenus's picture

"Any people anywhere, being inclined and having the power, have the right to rise up, and shake off the existing government, and form a new one that suits them better. This is a most valuable - a most sacred right - a right, which we hope and believe, is to liberate the world."

~ Abraham Lincoln

himaroid's picture

Asshole Abe changed his mind in 1861.

Sizzurp's picture

The first thing they will do is repudiate spanish debt.  That's when we'll find it out that it might take more than a mere vote to secure your' freedom from debt slavery.  It might take civil war.

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Just remind the Statists that it's just paper.  They can always conjure another trilly trilly.

himaroid's picture

My Basque friend tells me they are next.

The Hidden Hand's picture

After the bullshit Unionist propaganda they produced hypothesising endless doom and gloom for a liberated Scotland, Deutsche should keep their opinions to themselves and go and fuck themselves.

Go Catalunya.

honestann's picture

!!!!!  WOW  !!!!!
That is a LOT of people!
everyone declare independence... from everyone

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

What happens when "Scotland" comes to Spain?

 

If that's anything like "when Great Birnam Wood to high Dunsinane Hill cometh"

Then the jig is up.  (wink wink)

apberusdisvet's picture

Iceland gave a big middle finger to the banksters and they haven't  been nuked  or invaded yet.    Chix are gorgeous; great potential bug out place.

The surprise is that the rest of Europe hasn't learned from Iceland's very righteous rebellion