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20% Chance Of Ebola In USA By October; 277,124 Global Cases By Year-End, Model Predicts
"There's nothing to be optimistic about," warns the professor who developed the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to assess outbreaks, "if the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground." As FredHutch reports, the deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month, predicting as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out," as the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows a rougly 25% chance of Ebola detection in the UK by the end of September and 18% it will turn up in the USA. "I hope to be wrong, he concludes, but "the data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario."
The next three weeks will be crucial to determining whether the Ebola outbreak is tamed or rages out of control, the experts agreed.
...
WHO officials have predicted as many as 20,000 cases of Ebola and laid out a “road map” for the outbreak response that calls for stopping the outbreak within six to nine months. But that’s only if a “massive” global response is implemented.
The scenario modeled in the new paper suggests that the actual number of cases could far exceed the WHO estimate – and far sooner. Vespignani said he and his colleagues are calibrating the model every couple of weeks to see whether there’s any change. So far, the answer is no.
“The data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario,” Vespignani said. “It’s a bad feeling. I hope to be wrong.”
That’s a sentiment echoed by Longini, who said that he and other disease modelers are dismayed by what they see.
“There’s nothing to be optimistic about,” he said. “It’s frustrating. It feels like there should be a more concentrated international effort to help these countries.”
The latest counts Monday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which include WHO and Ministry of Health reports, put the total at 4,061 cases and 2,107 deaths.
The deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month.
That’s the word from disease modelers at Northeastern University and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who predict as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that.
“The epidemic just continues to spread without any end in sight,” said Dr. Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the the University of Florida and an affiliated member of Fred Hutch’s Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences divisions. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out.”
It’s only a matter of time, they add, before the virus could start spreading to other places, including previously unaffected countries in Africa and developed nations like the United Kingdom -- and the U.S., according to a paper published Sept. 2 in the journal PLOS Currents Outbreaks.
There’s a roughly 25 percent chance Ebola will be detected in the United Kingdom– and as much as an 18 percent chance it will turn up in the U.S. – by the end of September, the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows. The new paper includes the top 16 countries where Ebola is most likely to spread.
Though concerning, a spread to Western nations is not the biggest threat. At most, there would be a cluster of a few cases imported to the U.S., probably through air travel.
...
“We are at a crucial point,” Vespiginani said. “If the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground.”
* * *
As we noted previously, this is anything but "contained"
* * *
As another epidemiolgist (and federal advisor) - Dr. Michael T. Osterholm of the University of Minnesotta - warns:
I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.
When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention.
There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums…
The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air… viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.
And finally, as Wired reports, the professor extrapolates:
In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.
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I thought it was 30,000 by year end last time.
population control...
bitchez!
This "model" looks like Algore's scissor lift graph on global temperatures. lol
everyone knows models are stupid.
Everybody who gets Ebola here should puke all over the Georgia Guidestone and then go find a Wall Street banker to spew all over.
Since the government has already brought two American doctors with Ebola back to the US, I would say that we hit the 100% mark for ebola reaching the US over a month ago.
Another damn hockey stick. Like some retard just discovered how to use a regression.
But, ironically, the price of hockey sticks has remained flat.
There's a 99% chance it will rain tomorrow. If it doesn't, don't come complaining to me, it just means that was the 1%.
Conveniently doubling every two months on the chart. This will place the entire world population as infected by June 2018.
It has been doubling every 26 days.
"Ebola fomula 2^(x/21). If something doesnt change soon all our problems will be solved in only 320 more days +/- 90" - previously on ZH from someone that deserves full authorship.
If EBOLA somehow infects Wall Street Bankers and their "friends", the entire worlds problems would be solved in 48 hours...
Listen. It will fizzle out in 2 months. Just wait, it's not going to be a global epidemic.
What'll fizzle out is honest reporting of any facts.
You are more likely to be killed by your own government.
That's exactly what's happening.
The doubling rate was 21 days a month ago. What's changed?
This model is wrong and wildly pessimistic BUT....
Even at a doubling rate of every 30 days the model cures global overpopulation by March 2016.
The Zero hedge byline changes to "short enough timeline"
Listen. Your fear-mongering has "NO" place on Zero Hedge!
NONE!
Time to put my head back under the covers and start sucking my thumb,.......
InvalidID...not much has changed, other than math and truth about of dead bodies cannot be hidden by rosy WHO guesstimates for much longer.
If you wish to volunteer, you stand a 50-50% chance of contracting ebola, higher if you snare the task of cleaning ebola spew from clinic walls. SIGN UP TODAY.
I still have a hunch that Conscription will be reinstated.
The whole principle ravaging West Africa is called "fission" which is a term used for transuranic elements. Swapped to humans, it is called "geometric progression," exponential process, or if viewed life-threatening persepctive..... a feckin' PLAGUE!
I still like my purchase of Caterpillar LONG, or KOMATSU...some entity will need huge-ass machines to pile up all the rotting corpses into a huge pyre. Invest in a good weed burner turbocharged with a bottle of O2 into a flame thrower.
Check out Home Depot welding department, $49.97 The rest is Google Search.
You just said guesstimates.
really? where do you play hockey? 4 hundred for a good stick 20 years ago was 40
A solid point. Perhaps a more accurate statement would be that the value of hockey sticks has remained flat.
Unfortunately, the value of the fiat with which we buy those sticks has plummeted, hah.
You want to know what a REAL epidemic looks like? THIS is a real epidemic:
"The 1918 flu pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus.[1] It infected 500 million[2] people across the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and killed 50 to 100 million of them—three to five percent of the world's population[3]—making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.["
100 MILLION dead worldwide. Many in the US (soldiers returning from WWI helped it spread faster and further than it would have otherwise).
Forgive me if this little Ebola outbreak doesn't make me hit the panic button just yet. It's still government agencies telling us all to start freaking out because they want "funding". Does that tactic sound familiar to anyone?
How about a little of that trademark ZH scepticism on this subject?
How many of that 270K are modeled to be healthcare workers?
Before or after seasonal XU-236.0.14afS geometric De-exponential Amplifier adjustments?
It was a rhetorical question.
It was indeed the 1920's flue pandemic that taught scientists how to detect the propagation patterns that could enable us to act before it was too late. The problem here is that we are NOT acting even though all bells are running off.
The models are very simplistic and easy to follow easy propagation models.
The flue pandemic accelerated much more rapidly because the virus propagated through the air.
The problem the author is trying to depict here is that every time the virus moves from one human to another, your have trillions of tries for the virus to try mutations or combinations of genes that could enable to become air borne, every time it doesn't happen, we breath a sight of relief, but every contagion is throwing the dice trillions of times again, and guess what, only one hit is needed for the flue pandemic to repeat itself but this time with the ebola virus. One hit! If you are not at least concerned, then you need a brain scan to check if you are alive
It's over, guys. 50% dead - over 4 billion people - within 2.5/3 years. The only cure is harvesting whole blood from survivors for transfusions. Skip the AIDS, Hep C and cancer patients, and you're looking at the rich harvesting small children. Not even the trolls here at ZH are on that list. Good luck, guys. Your bosses don't give a fuck about you, either.
This is some seriously sick shit, propagated by the sickest fuckers modern civilization can produce.
And what the GMO Ebola doesn't get, the radiation from Fukushima will eliminate. There are two more reactors with storage pools that are just about to blow into the atmospheric jet stream, and what's left of the wreckage will join the other reactors in leaching into the Northern Pacific.
No one cares anymore. It's just a race to the grave, hopefully us before the rich from their point of view. They won't turn off food stamps until everyone is too sick to bitch.
Or someone with nukes decides to accelerate the process. At some point some sick fuck will simply want to watch the fireworks before he dies.
All oxygen absorbing life on this planet is finished.
If you got 'em, smoke 'em.
So would you say this is a good time to buy stocks?
NotTooImportant!
CLAASIQUE reply...I've cut and pasted it everywhere, to everyone.
You nailed it, eloquently. Whatever the ebola death count stands at today---you get that many arrows UP!
One item that nags my brain.....we all KNOW the USAF has been droning the entirety of West Africa. Say what you want about the US Military--at the top are a brainy bunch. We want THEIR math models and vid coverage of the West Point Riots at Monrovia, Liberia. Made public, today!
NSA/CIA/USAID---time to stand tall with all your recording of everything. We know you have live, real-time up to date footage of ebola. Spew forth!Fire up the popcorn popper!
.gov has been running the models on the most expensive Crays money can buy, for as long as they've known about hantaviruses.
They know it all, and so we can tell, by the world's feeble response to this, that it's all being done on purpose. This isn't some random biowarfare agent test on a remote African village, like it's usually done after being exposed in the past in the US and restricted (well, who really knows).
Not Too Important, I want to call you a fatalist, and dismiss your comment, but I would be lying to us both. All I can think to do is remind you of the story of Pandora's Box. When she openned the lid, and all of the evil poured out into the world, one thing remained at the bottom - that being hope.
What would Hitler do in a situation like this?
Why, he'd phone up Reinhard Heydrich.
The Butcher of Prague would order his troops to seal off avenues of escape, shoot every individual that appears to be symptomatic, and torch the resulting corpses using gasoline.
The rate of spread would quickly fall below a "replacment level".
Setting up more and more tent hospitals might now be doing more harm than good.
Were the Westerners to get the hell out, Africans might stop this epidemic on their own through the bold application of common sense measures.
Long camoflage hazmat suits,
flightradar24.com
To me, the lack of "action" is a pretty big indicator of "action".
Nothing but blue skies over the entire continent of Africa. Only about 4 planes in motion.
If you look at population growth in the U.S., the only year of decline was 1918.
So, you want to just sit back, then panic once millions are dying, rather than react early and try to contain it?
Relax, it's only africans who are dying.
That will teach them trying to form a african gold backed currency while trying to get rid of the dollar!!
Now where would this labratory virus come from.... From a batcave?
BATMAN?
GOTHMAN CITY?!?!?!
AMERICA?!?!?!
"Turns out, rural people were "rural, low use (people)" 1951 AEC report "They decried the Cold War assault by their own government, which in a confidential 1951 Atomic Energy Commission memo described them as a rural, “low-use” segment of the population. The memo was written to justify continuing the test program although the commission knew the fallout was dangerous and some in Congress were pressing to move the tests offshore to the Pacific."
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2004/oct/24/time-bombs-keep-going-off-for-cancer-plagued/
Then the urban became 'low use people'. Then Kissinger came along and called us all 'useless eaters'.
And then they released the Ebola Kraken.
They don't give a shit. They have history's most expensive military between them and us, and we paid for it all.
We are a bunch of dumb fuckers as a group, aren't we? With them laughing as they light their cigars with billion dollar US bearer bonds.
My grandmother lost her first husband and infant daughter in that pandemic. She said that the ground was frozen and they couldn't dig graves. Her father's property was close to the funeral home, and she said they stored the dead of the community in his barn until they could be buried - how's that for creepy. There is a flaw in your logic. The data you quote from the 1918 flu epidemic was compiled after the event. Ebola is just getting started. If it manages to really get established and maintains its present level of virulence at a 50% plus mortality rate, and discounting a widespread mutation that confers immunity (like CCR delta 32, for plague), it will make the Spanish flu look tame.
I'm thinking that "50%" mortality-rate is misleading: it takes an Ebola victim approximately 15-20 days from the onset of symptoms to finally perish, and up to 20-something days longer than that from the original point of infection.
If I'm not mistaken, the oft-used "50%" is dervied from current deaths/current infections-- the current deaths being those who were alive but infected at least 4-6 weeks ago.
Shouldn't we be looking at who is infected now and, of these who are infected now, who's alive a month from now? Is or shouldn't that be how the mortality-rate is calculated?
Don't know if I'm right or wrong on this, but I'm curious to know the answer.
Infections number probably those showing symptoms,
soon to die ...
or soon to recover and survive,
therefore relatively accurate ratio.
Infected without showing symptoms is an unknown number,
cannot calculate ratio with an unknown number.
Somehow "rate of infection" must be balanced against the "infected."..
Oh hell... Thanks for your reply, though I can't say I'm all the more knowledgable for it (that's me, a bit dense)--But I gets some more for me to think about tomorrow, after I finish this bottle of wine, in which I drown the world's sorrows...
"Infected without showing symptons..." Damn that unknown!!! Hell, damn the unknown!
(EDIT) Mind the accelerating infection rate. Yes, more "unknowns" to screw the numbers all up. Fuck the wine-- SHOT TIME!!!
1918 Flu Pandemic?
Airborne flu killed 10 to 20 percent of those infected?
Why do you think Governments are trying to create Swine Flu, Bird Flu Pandemics?
They wish for Vaccine profits.
They wish for Genocide.
1918: less than three percent
If and when Ebola goes airborne is the time to panic. It's way deadlier than the flu, even the one of 1918. With comparable transmission...it'll kill billions.
Forgiven, NoDebt. My button remains untouched as well, but fingers are standing by.
Has anyone seen a picture of someone with ebola in this newest outbreak and not just a man in a plastic bag because it just seems that it is all a bit strange , of course it must be Putins fault when he was throwing babies out of incuebators.
I have the flue right now...
If you want to see a scary pic I'll send you a selfie...
I wonder why they never wasted 400 million dollar to cure me....
I PAY TAXES YOU BASTARDS!!!!
WHERE'S MY CURE!!!
WHERE'S MY HASMAT SUIT?!?!?
I'm so buying a monkey, get it sick and send it to the city to do my shopping...
WELL SEE WHO WILL BE LAUGHING THAN!!!!
Sudden Debt, eat a few pounds of plastique, then hanglide over city of London at lunchtime!
picture of man with ebola
http://i.imgur.com/9U0PEJ3.jpg
So you're saying Al Gore supports Ebola given the results help us use fewer resources and thus less carbon release?
Yeah!
Al gore INVENTED Ebola!
BTW: Lack of Vitamin C is a known factor for Ebola mortality.
HEY!!
SPEAK FOR YOURSELF!!!
I RECYCLE!!
If you don't like the shape, fix it with log scale.
Easy fix, lock those shitholes down, no in or out for a year. All the ebolites will burn out by then. What's the problem?
None
Cordon Sanitaire
Time tested, mom approved, Mikey likes it.
Right. Coming to your neighborhood soon. Of course, if West Point is any kind of example it is a perfect example of how not to run a quarantine. In which case, if properly run, you will find yourself a bit short on food and other supplies. Plus, good luck making it to work. Which means paying your bills may be a little tough. So if you like your heat and your lights you're probably going to get a bit creative about that cordon sanitaire.
Be one hell of a great excuse for the Street to cut a couple quarters GDP estimates!
Well, for about $0.32 you could always:
+ SPY150320P0015000
- SPY150320P0014000
Never will you be happier you have physical assets in your hands, then the day Americans realize they are not invincible and bad things happen to them too!!
@.inf.capt - you will be one of them.
Oh, my friend, it was only 30K last time. And was pegged at 18% to come to our shores.
I'll take the 30K and over on domestic deaths and the over on the 20%
The Eugenicists dream
Well, then obviously it must be getting worse if scientists keep making more and more dire predictions. They're always right about this stuff.
I think this strain of Ebola was made by the CIA, like they created ISIS. Only top level government officials have been innoculated.
And global warming is real.
Innoculated ?
Vaccinated ?
It's most likely already getting to the point where authorities are unable to count affected victims or prove that the sick even have Ebola, as it takes a considerable amount of time to even test for it. This will only get worse as time progresses, and we may not know the true impact. The next 3 weeks will be crucial for the fudging of official numbers.
Count? We don't need no stinking count!
I've been tracking the data on healthmap.org/ebola (and other soures) and their reported infection and death counts haven't changed in a week, suggesting the truth is a bit "delicate".
It depends if you consider the evolution of data and try to build a growth model (like in Abenomics), then you get something like 30,000 by year's end - my personal forecast stands at 42'851 cases and 18'471 deaths (based on probable+confirmed cases): https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx7I-MzAy7p5Smx6TnBGZjhXeFU/edit?usp=sh...
If you try to build a behavioural model of infection, I bet it gets much worse if big cities are hit. 277k cases doesn't fit the current trend, but what do we know of it, really?
Cure for Ebola (and a lot of other diseases) Bob Beck Protocol.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkiX0jJJozk
No, I am not kidding. I use the devices and have not had so much as a cold since I started.
The way I read the Wired article the worried comment:
I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.
When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention."
Was the author of that article, Maryn McKenna, and not Dr. Osterholm.
The way I read the Wired article the worried comment:
I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.
When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention."
Was the author of that article, Maryn McKenna, and not Dr. Osterholm.
Don't worry. The vaccine will be available when the crisis comes to America and other western nations. It will come with a mandatory RFID chip to monitor our condition.
Yes! My daily dose of Ebola porn!
Stoke that fucking fear. Make like it's the End of the World.
Call for massive efforts
Need funding
Raise taxes
Slowly realize so this is why FEMA has all those plastic coffins and the other mugs, billions of rounds of hollow points.
Get panicky without scaring the population.
Just enough panicky to curtail freedoms further.
Just enough , it it gets further out of control, to declare martial law.
Stay indoors, folks.
Nope, no stores open
The water might have Marburg in it.
Stay feared.
And now we all undrstand why those "underground bases" were built
Indeed, it's important to keep this outbreak in perspective. Nevertheless, this one definitely has legs and I can certainly imagine such a virus to hit a "take off" point in overpopulated teeming third world cities. Just seems like something waiting to happen, though I am not personally fearful at all, yet.
this little baby has a higher chance than 20% of landing here before November and fortunately its mortality rate is not nearly as high as 50%....but it will kill about 20% mostly very young, old and weak like most viral pandemics. The problem with this one is they DO HAVE a vaccine since THEY engineered the virus, but they won't roll it out if the spread is too fast. My guess is they do get it rolled out before the panic goes full bore and NO ONE shows up at Wally World to stock the shelves.
I thought the current strain has a 40-50% kill ratio and doesn't appear to be taking out the young and old like those flu pandemics do. Ah, what the hell do I know....
don't believe everything they're telling you. Its biggest effect will be respiratory and that will be the hardest on the groups mentioned.. basically its a bad fochin virus that makes you sicker than shit. but you can survive it.
Once you adjust sample size for time and this round of Ebola is sticking to the time-tested 80% mortality rate.
The problem is that the rate of increasing infections is so high that the mortality rate is lagging. This creates a bit of a math problem as the deaths catch up to the infections.
For more info about Estimating the Fatality Rate check out this link:
http://www.healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/estimating-fatality-2...
The author is a systems engineer and MIT PhD. Pretty sharp and more good info on her site here:
http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/
Thank you for some real info.
Not only the young and old?
The cure is monoclonal antibodies from whole blood, for passive immunization.
Translated, that's harvesting young survivors without other blood disorders.
You've been here long enough, you can finish the rest.
The trend is geometric, but it if you do the math (and I read an article that confirms) it's still only around 1.7 new infections/case. Eg for everybody infected with Ebola, they're passing it on to < 2 people. Mathematically still a problem, but if you look at the abysmal conditions where this is happening, that says to me that it really isn't THAT transmissible (otherwise I'd expect a transmission rate of 10 or 50 or 100 given the conditions in west Africa - infected people touring the Liberian countryside in taxis looking for medical care - how is that not causing a massive increase in cases?).
So absent some mutation that makes it a lot more transmissible, it seems to me there's a good chance it's going to be a horrible problem for west Africa for a while, but probably not a global problem.
Seems right though clearly the virus has mutated to an extent that the current outbreak is very different than previous ones, all of those burning out quickly. I'd call this one a "mid danger level" strain. High level danger will be full airborne capability. Now THAT can start taking out the world's overpopulated shitholes.
Interesting interview with Dr. C.J. Peters, the original "virus hunter" and real life virologist that Dustin Hoffman's character was based on:
http://www.pathogenperspectives.com/2014/09/ebola-q-with-dr-cj-peters-wh...
Q: Is this Ebola epidemic a threat to humanity?
A: No. It may very well decimate Africa. Africa is in real trouble, but it is not a threat to humanity and it won't cause a pandemic.
EDIT: When an event affects 1 out of 100 there is an experience rate of 1%, unless you are that 1 case at which point your experience rate is 100%. So maybe the severity of the threat depends a bit on where you happen to be...
He may be right concerning this current strain....again, it's all about the mode of transmission.
The Doctor's right. It'll stop at the border, and not cross it.
He's busy protecting his paycheck right now, and trying to avoid nailguns.
The Japanese are killing off newspeople that talk about Fukushima too much:
“Very Frightening”: Journalist on popular Japan news program found dead — Only person reporting about Fukushima on national TV — Chilling recent quote: “I want you to know I will never commit suicide” — No news coverage of death, no obituary, ‘strange’ nuclear message shown on air"http://enenews.com/very-frightening-journalist-very-popular-japan-news-p...
What's fukushima? /sarc
>>>It may very well decimate Africa.
Finally, someone uses the word "decimate" correctly.
There is a God.
Huxly: Let's hope!
Look at the CDC Advisory for EV-D68, the respiratory virus that is now infecting children here in the US. Think about how quickly it has spread here. We know that Ebola is spread by Droplets. The CDC health advisory on EV-D68 says"As EV-D68 is a cause of clusters of respiratory illness, similar to rhinoviruses, droplet precautions also should be considered as an interim recommendation."
Then think about how quickly Ebola can be spread here.
CDC EV-D68 Advisory can be found at this link:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=546301#post546301
It would be funny if they went down thier DUMBS sealed themselves in and and Ebola got in with them and they all died , I know to good to be true.
They do all have enriched uranium and plutonium in their lungs, from Fukushima. If they go down and seal the doors, even without GMO Ebola it's only a matter of time. They certainly won't be breeding down there, nothing but mutants unable to procreate.
Ebola! Ebola! Ebola! I'm buying guns, blankets and MREs all over the place!!!!!!!!! Hunker down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Death, destruction, violence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o
Three weeks!? We could get in a few rounds of golf first.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=18065&d=141...
20% chance? They do know we flew two cases in, don't they? Call me crazy, but I'd say that's 100% chance.
They only put in the tip so it does not count.
Was in the news a few days ago (on Yahoo, of all places) that many more contagious infuckted folks have been flown in, just not been told about it.
Think it would be on purpose, no?
We have some infected folks. However, let me clear, I have a plan. A plan that involves golifing...but a plan, nonetheless.
Just think of what our first "black" president's legacy is going to read like....
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/16/opinion/roger-cohen-the-great-unraveli...
They're not telling anyone where they are dropping off all the illegals crossing the southern border, why would they tell us if they were flying in Ebola patients?
I'm pretty sure it's not in places like the Hamptons. Maybe Fonz can confirm.
I don't think he leaves "the island". Most who live there don't. Ever.
LI is like a cockroach hotel. Fucking shithole, even the "nice" places. Without Wall Street money, it'd turn into another Detroit.
You don't have to be told where the illegal kids went, just look at the new respiratory infection map:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/07/health/respiratory-virus-midwest/index.htm...
And for the record, there are still doctors that say they don't know what it is, despite weeks of testing for Enterovirus EV-D68. It could very well be something else entirely.
They're going to pull out the virus before they cum back to society, promise.
Dr. Engali,
I presume,
20 percent chance of Un-quarantined case getting here.
Prefer Zero percent chance.
Timmah is gonna hide behind his new couch, until all you fuckers die-off!
Ha! Ha!
Then Timmah is gonna eat all the oreo cookies!!!
probably the same model gs uses for their s&p predictions
My prediction: whoever is making these "EBOLA IS GOING TO KILL US ALL!!!!!' predictions is an idiot.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=18065&d=141...
Check this out. this is the kind of math that even the Fed could get excited about
Modeled deaths 6/11/2015 4,335,959
Wake me when something of consequence happens. These "models" are about as reliable as a eco-terrorist's "global warming models." This is just jack off fodder for doomsdayers.
I could use some more cash. Should work in admin for the WHO. They must be raking it in.
The UN has been a cash cow for decades.
Since there isn't a chance in hell of the world "mobilizing" in the next 3 weeks (after all we have wars to work on), looks as if this baby is gonna take off. God help us if this thing mutates into a truly airborne state.
or if mosquitoes pass the virus....
"ewwwwww ... leaches"
-H Bogart African Queen
"Someone pointed out that in medical terms, if the virus is transferred through tiny droplets in the air this would technically not be called an "airborne virus". Airborne, in medical terms would mean that the virus has the ability to stay alive without a liquid carrier. On one hand this is a question of semantics, and the point is well taken, but keep in mind that the study did not officially determine how the virus traveled through the air, it merely established that it does travel through the air. Doctor Kobinger's hypothesis regarding droplets of liquid is just that, a hypothesis. For the average person however what needs to be understood is very simple: if you are in a room with someone infected with Ebola, you are not safe, even if you never touch them or their bodily fluids, and this is not what you are being told by the mainstream media. Essentially I am using the word "airborne" as a layman term."
"Translation: Ebola IS an airborne virus. (as is annotated in the video and below, I am using this term in the layman's sense as TRAVELS THROUGH AIR)"
http://scgnews.com/ebola-what-youre-not-being-told
"The public has been misinformed regarding human-to-human transmission of Ebola. Assurances that Ebola can be transmitted only through direct contact with bodily fluids need to be seriously scrutinized in the wake of the West Africa outbreak.
The Canadian Health Department states that airborne transmission of Ebola is strongly suspected and the CDC admits that Ebola can be transmitted in situations where there is no physical contact between people, i.e.: via direct airborne inhalation into the lungs or into the eyes, or via contact with airborne fomites which adhere to nearby surfaces. That helps explain why 81 doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers have died in West Africa to date. These courageous healthcare providers use careful CDC-level barrier precautions such as gowns, gloves, and head cover, but it appears they have inadequate respiratory and eye protection. Dr. Michael V. Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital who has worked in Africa during Ebola outbreaks said that minimum CDC level precautions
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/08/airborne_transmission_of_ebola.htmlLots of scientific protocol for the scientifically-inclined at the above.
I bet those population control cheerleaders Buffett and Gates are just about giddy by now and peeing all over themselves.
Considering Ebola is not discriminatory about its host, the last laugh may be ours. Well, if we managed to survive. Holed up in their vast estates and unlimited resources can only bide so much time. Sooner or later they must venture out and they will be just as susceptible to the agent as all of us. Reminds me of the old Gary Larson comic strip The Far Side when the couple emerges from their bunker shouting in elation " We're alive!" against a backdrop of nuclear destruction.
They may be peeing for a different reason at some point.
Miffed;-)
How do you manage compassion fatigue?
Quit caring and tell the poor, sick, hungry, homeless and weary to "Go fuckyerself"
Got it thx i feel btr alrady
"SOME of America’s leading billionaires have met secretly to consider how their wealth could be used to slow the growth of the world’s population and speed up improvements in health and education.
The philanthropists who attended a summit convened on the initiative of Bill Gates, the Microsoft co-founder, discussed joining forces to overcome political and religious obstacles to change.
Described as the Good Club by one insider it included David Rockefeller Jr, the patriarch of America’s wealthiest dynasty, Warren Buffett and George Soros, the financiers, Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, and the media moguls Ted Turner and Oprah Winfrey."
http://globalresearch.ca/billionaire-club-in-bid-to-curb-overpopulation/...
All the voting machines will be infected with Ebola.
Just stay home and call off the elections.
Martial Law a la Boston lock down.
And no, voting over the Internet is not secure so elections p[ostponed until further notice.
But we'll be stopping by to insert your biometric ID chip
Love,
The Progressives
Terrorism - Go out and shop, America!!!!
Ebolism - Go out and shop, America, on-line!!!
Seems we need to be indoors for some reason.
We could have a three term president living in a bunker before this is over.
No,
Just everyone will be wearing the new fashion in suits,
bio-hazard suits.
We can guarantee the 20% chance of Ebola in the U.S. if we send down more aid workers and soldiers to "help" - then fly them home for treatment in large metropolitan areas.
Oh, and don't restrict any inbound flights or emigration/visitation from infected regions.
I guarantee you we will do exactly what you should not do to prevent a pandemic.
Eb,
You'd be shocked what I have been seeing getting off planes from Africa. They go directly to the hospital so they now these people are infective. The laxity of public health now is amazing. I have queried what the Hell is going on. Humanitarian or political asylum is the response and their hands our tied. Un-fucking-believable.
I know most here probably think this whole thing is just funny doomer porn. I hope to God they are right. From where I sit, I'm frankly scared shitless. Ok, if it really doesn't go down I guess I owe everyone a Coke.
Miffed;-)
Okay but what are you scared of exactly? Serious question. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I'm not real worried. Should I be?
Only when you start bleeding out of every orifice. I'd be worried at that point.
I'll feild this one......
With an incubation period of 21 days or so, you could easily have someone fly to major city centers and begin a true global pandemic if it got to Beijing, Mumbai, NYC....it has infected hundreds of HC workers and many follow strict protocol. The word "airborne" is beginning to get tossed around. i'd say you better pay fucking heed cuz those in control are too tied to political correctness to mount a stabilization by closing flights and such; economics is too important. i suggest p-95 masks.
BINGO! And IR has the Daily Double!
For all the tea in China.... the answer is:
"i'd say you better pay fucking heed cuz those in control are too tied to political correctness to mount a stabilization by closing flights and such"
And build that truism upon Miffed's comment above.
This cannot be an accident.
Not even most Progressive I know are that fucking stoooopid.
See thats what I mean. So long as its just a wild conspriacy to get money for algore I don't have to worry about it because all that is a fairytale. YOu want to scare little kids kay fine you do that. I'm sitting hear looking at all this and I'm going to myself the fuck are they talking about? Off the map is off the map and i don't believe in monsters.
Ebola presents like flu. During flu season I handle 100s of flu specimens a week. This is a virus. Chances of it being on the vial is great. Many will be exposed before it is in my hand. With up to a 21 day incubation, do the math.
Miffed;-)
I get the math part.
Not connecting all the dots the same way you are but it's all a big guess. Most of what I read on these threads is a kind of Halloween jump-scare-porn. Not so much your stuff, but just about all of the rest. Slightly annoying if you want my opinion. So I cant think clearly about it.
But thanks for the clarification.
It's very easy. If Mif is wrong, there's nothing to worry about, except for the financial corruption and Fukushima radiation.
If she's right, 4 billion dead in 2.5/3 years.
Flip a coin, if you need an answer now.
Is there no middle path? Maybe a few million deaths in Africa, then a flat line in new cases and a slow fizzle out?
I've been hearing horror stories of the impending depopulation of Africa from AIDS since I was 8 or 9 years old, and it just never really happened. In South Africa population has been officially flat for the last 15 years, unofficially millions of illegals from Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Mozambique, etc. have come in. The average birth rate is still 5 or 6 kids per woman and there are still millions of unemployed slum dwellers, just like it was 5, 10 or 15 years ago.
Then again, Ebola kills a lot quicker than AIDS...
I am worried because of the clusterfucky responses I am reading about such as the article I am posting here. I am reading about not only the lack of response, but the disorganization of response.
‘It doesn’t make sense’: Concerns over enlisting DoD in Ebola response
An excerpt from the article: According to a senior military official, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said at a recent meeting: "The Department of Defense's number one priority is combating Ebola." However, a Defense Department source told Fox News that alarms had been raised about the decision. “We don’t need to be taking planners away from the CT [counterterrorism] mission, and that is what is going on,” the Defense Department source said.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/14/it-doesnt-make-sense-concerns...
Let me be blunt, not enough people are willing to physically go deal with this thing AND there is no coordination of effort.
A doc died recently because they could not find the funds to fly her out of there. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-outbreak-dr-olivet-buck-dies-sierra-leone-after-who-n202991
The wired article, the "virus hunter" they interviewed, they had no money to pay him, but they found some money to pay for his plane and other small stuff. http://www.wired.com/2014/09/r0-ebola/
They can't pay this guy, yet they are crediting him with the level of organization that exists now, and they say that if it was not for him this would be worse? Are you shiting me?
This is what concerns me.
Yes, Missy, t'is a compleate fedrulgubamint clusterfuck
SNAFU
The USSA fedrulgubamint has spent more money talking about ebola than the four West African governments have spent fighting ebola.
The next part of SNAFU is the scary part.
(but if you gave me access to the NSA's datacenters I could actually prove and quantify how much more the US has spent, which is almost as scary)
Everything in life is pretty much a guess. Some things have more statistical probability than others. If this country were treating illegal immigration and even legal travel from a country with an emerging epidemic in a proper microbiological, epidemiological or bio terroristic framework, I would think as you do. The chances would be remote at best. Geographically we'd be safe. However, this virus has the capability to do extreme damage to the economy and cause many deaths. It is also a select agent. Numerous people infected making an coordinated attack would CRIPPLE the health system very fast. Believe it or not but we are NO WAY equipped to handle multiple Ebola infections occurring simultaneously in this country. I'm wearing a N95 mask to work under a decertified laminar flow hood until they can come up with the money to replace it and I work in a major medical center. What do you think would happen if there was even a rumor of an Ebola case in the hospital? I'm compassionate but not crazy.
Miffed;-)
"Numerous people infected making an coordinated attack"
See. That. That's the dot I can't connect to anything, so I don't have to worry. The rest doesn't follow and I don't have to worry about any of it.
Off the map is off the map and we don't worry about monsters that lurk off the edge of the map.
Right? amiright?
A quick follow up in regards to the 21-day incubation period...the young nurses's aide to the dead doctor in Port Harcourt Nigeria was observed as a "contact" person for 21 days and deemed to be ok. Six days later she was led into an emergency room at her university in Nigeria with a fever, vomiting, and bloody diarrhea. She was immediately quarantined,and I do not know her status at the moment. However the hospital staff inmediately did a massive disinfection of the emergency room where she was.
One of the Ebola victims who survived in Monrovia was released and his girlfriend contracted and died of ebola a few weeks later.
It appears to me that there is a great deal we do not know, and that which is unknown is more and more ominous.
Do you have sources to guide us to? Links? Not that I do not believe you, I want to know more please.
Ms. I got the story a few days ago on tersee.com. I just tried to retrieve it and this is what I got ...newsfetchers.com/2014/09/panic-in-oau-as-p'harcourt something something. Next one I got is faitholaniran.blogspot.com/.../panic-in-oau something something.. I originally tracked it down 10 minutes ago by just googling obafemi awolowo university sick nurse's aide.
Sorry I'm not a little more computer proficient. By the way that tersee.com is one heck of a news site with literally minute by minute news feeds on any topic worldwide. Another commentator - tall Tom - I think - turned me on to it a few weeks ago.