20% Chance Of Ebola In USA By October; 277,124 Global Cases By Year-End, Model Predicts

Tyler Durden's picture

"There's nothing to be optimistic about," warns the professor who developed the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to assess outbreaks, "if the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground." As FredHutch reports, the deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month, predicting as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out," as the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows a rougly 25% chance of Ebola detection in the UK by the end of September and 18% it will turn up in the USA. "I hope to be wrong, he concludes, but "the data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario."


Via FredHutch,

The next three weeks will be crucial to determining whether the Ebola outbreak is tamed or rages out of control, the experts agreed.




WHO officials have predicted as many as 20,000 cases of Ebola and laid out a “road map” for the outbreak response that calls for stopping the outbreak within six to nine months. But that’s only if a “massive” global response is implemented.


The scenario modeled in the new paper suggests that the actual number of cases could far exceed the WHO estimate – and far sooner. Vespignani said he and his colleagues are calibrating the model every couple of weeks to see whether there’s any change. So far, the answer is no.


“The data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario,” Vespignani said. “It’s a bad feeling. I hope to be wrong.”


That’s a sentiment echoed by Longini, who said that he and other disease modelers are dismayed by what they see.


“There’s nothing to be optimistic about,” he said. “It’s frustrating. It feels like there should be a more concentrated international effort to help these countries.”

The latest counts Monday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which include WHO and Ministry of Health reports, put the total at 4,061 cases and 2,107 deaths.

The deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month.


That’s the word from disease modelers at Northeastern University and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who predict as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that.


“The epidemic just continues to spread without any end in sight,” said Dr. Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the the University of Florida and an affiliated member of Fred Hutch’s Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences divisions. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out.”


It’s only a matter of time, they add, before the virus could start spreading to other places, including previously unaffected countries in Africa and developed nations like the United Kingdom -- and the U.S., according to a paper published Sept. 2 in the journal PLOS Currents Outbreaks.


There’s a roughly 25 percent chance Ebola will be detected in the United Kingdom– and as much as an 18 percent chance it will turn up in the U.S. – by the end of September, the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows. The new paper includes the top 16 countries where Ebola is most likely to spread.


Though concerning, a spread to Western nations is not the biggest threat. At most, there would be a cluster of a few cases imported to the U.S., probably through air travel.




“We are at a crucial point,” Vespiginani said. “If the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground.”

*  *  *
As we noted previously, this is anything but "contained"

*  *  *

As another epidemiolgist (and federal advisor) - Dr. Michael T. Osterholm of the University of Minnesotta - warns:

I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.


When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention.

There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.

The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums…


The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air… viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.

And finally, as Wired reports, the professor extrapolates:

In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

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Not Too Important's picture
'Feel Like Betting On Life Expectancy? There's A Derivative For That'


Have at it.

RmcAZ's picture

Then do the opposite of what you listed here, because all the shorts will get bailed out by .gov (except BTC), and all the longs will be so overrun by demand that they won't be able to supply products fast enough, and thus their stocks will get demolished.

Dead Man Walking's picture

Long hand sanitizer


RattNRoll's picture

Obola will save us.....just elect him to a third term, no wait that will happen regardless.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Really, it's already the 4th term for Bush Jr.

Fix It Again Timmy's picture

My grandfather came down with the Spanish Flu in 1918.  He told his neighbor, an elderly Polish man, that he was going to the hospital.  The old man said, "Max, don't go to the hospital, you'll die there."  He made some herbal and whiskey concoction, wrapped my grandfather in a comforter and administered the elixir.   My grandfather sweated profusely for three days and then recovered.  Ebola seems to be a vicious merchant of death at the cellular level and I have no idea how it can be stopped.....

Zerozen's picture

Raising body temp and sweating is the easiest and quickest way to get over the cold, and I think it works for flu too. I don't get sick often but when I do, I do this and it breaks the cold overnight. By the next morning I'm 50% better and from there on it's just it's a day or two to full recovery. No Tylenol needed.

BTW did you know that iatrogenic death (hospital manslaughter) is the 3rd or 4th leading cause of death in the U.S.? I say 3rd or 4th because the CDC doesn't keep official statistics. The numbers are compiled privately by a couple of different organizations. Of course, various healthcare interest groups like the AMA vigorously dispute the numbers. 

Stay the fuck out of hospitals, unless you absolutely have to go.

p00k1e's picture

Is there a home test for Ebola?

I fear when I contract I’ll go visit the hospital > they’ll send me to a FEMA camp.  I’d rather shoot the place up upon learning I’m Ebola Positive. 

unrulian's picture

Yep, mirror...if there's blood coming out of your eyes, lock and load

lakecity55's picture

....and please, do not shoot up the hospital. Drive over to a bar of lawyers or politicians or reporters.

vnct's picture

....dont forget the banksters.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

pFFFT. No creativity.

Why not a Free Hugs Day?

are we there yet's picture

If ebola gets to the US it will not take hold unless it becomes airborne.

Laddie's picture

Three weeks ago it was announced that THOUSANDS of "students" from African nations with EBOLA outbreaks were returning to the US to continue their studies. Ditto for UK. Even with what I know it still surprised me, our enemy is DEADLY serious. Even if one didn't know the full score it surely must awaken SOMETHING to realize that one's own government is doing NOTHING to protect US.

p00k1e's picture

One of today’s contributions suggested the IQ of the planet is lowering. 

Seems the U.S. government has the country on suicide mission. 

And we Bleet.  Bleet, bleet? 

Laddie's picture

The mass of whites in the USSA believe whatever the Televitz tells them. Sad, but I think all too accurate. God help us, God Save us from the Enemy of Humanity. As they say "We are all Palestinians now."

RattNRoll's picture

All the white lemmings that attend the NFL stadiums on sunday would be a perfect breeding/carrying ground for ebola

p00k1e's picture

Um, God is doing this TO you. 

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

We can test this with the handy-dandy-IQ-ometer.
This end goes in yer ear, this end goes in your mouth, this end goes up your ass, .... oops, here, switch that around...

are we there yet's picture

That came from the movie idiotocracy. A documentary from the furure.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Dinjaknow? Now we can cure ebola with hugs! Cuz - Murrika.

Not Too Important's picture

What about Nigeria sending thousands of Nigerians to the Hajj in Saudi Arabia?


If SA even lets one in, you know there's international cooperation on encouraging a worldwide spread.

2-3 million people coming in, from all over the world.


And don't start with the Muslim shit. We're waay past that, at this point. We're all in the same sinking ship.

Cthonic's picture

smoothed new case rate (does not include DRC outbreak data):



12 Sep 14 - 92/day

08 Sep 14 - 86/day

04 Sep 14 - 75/day

28 Aug 14 - 69/day

22 Aug 14 - 59/day

20 Aug 14 - 54/day

19 Aug 14 - 46/day

15 Aug 14 - 54/day

13 Aug 14 - 40/day

11 Aug 14 - 37/day

08 Aug 14 - 54/day

06 Aug 14 - 55/day

04 Aug 14 - 57/day

02 Aug 14 - 43/day

29 Jul 14 - 38/day

27 Jul 14 - 23/day

23 Jul 14 - 12/day

17 Jul 14 - 10/day

Case Fatality Risk Estimate: 51%

Active Case Growth Rate: 5.1% per day

Health worker cases/deaths: 301/144

(12 Sep release contains data through 7 Sep)



Discrepancy noted in Liberian data: confirmed deaths dropped by 10 and suspected deaths dropped by 85.

reposted from old thread

Lost Word's picture

Looks like the rate of increase is slowing.

Cthonic's picture

Based on interim data (there are at least another 688 cases through 9/13 that haven't shown up in official WHO publications yet), instantaneous new case rate will be 115+/day, smoothed case rate around 95/day, and the active case growth rate should drop to around 4.9%/day.

Duc888's picture




Don't sweat it.  Our borders are secure.

StupidEarthlings's picture

Is this ebola shit for realz?..

I seriously have my doubts.. sounds like another excuse to get ready n 'round up' all the sheep n get em quarantined.  Stay home folks and dont catch the disease. .then they explain that ebola was responsible for downfall of the economy /civilization etc.

Maybe I watch too many movies. .

ShrNfr's picture

Real enough in Liberia. If it gets loose in the slums of Lagos, the game is over for Africa below the Sahara and perhaps above it. Previous outbreaks were in small places that they could quarantine. This one not so much on either score. Shit happens.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Thankfull we can all camp out next to Fukushima so the radiation kills the ebola before it gets us!

Urban Redneck's picture

The very high numbers of real dollars, jobs, and profits that can be thrown at for profit oligopolists who are no stranger to profiting in West Africa, only to be met with an immediate "no thank you" when they hear it means "profit in West Africa" is a tell.

This is very real.

Cthonic's picture

Maybe I watch too many movies. .

Try to book a flight into ROB MLW or SNI ... I could only find one airline flying in (Brussels Airline)



layman_please's picture

our brightest are working hard to figure out how to isolate the markets completely from the reality/economy so that the curfew/martial law wouldn't hurt the stocks. we are still not there, yet. but not to worry.

lakecity55's picture


What's with the mask and Trojans and rubber gloves tonight?

N0TME's picture

Ummm, "The Last Ship" ???

mattgallis's picture

is it weird that the Ebola strain looks like gummy worms and makes me hungry?

Rouge Trader's picture

We are all fucked. Where is the Ark

mkhs's picture

If you don't already have your tickets, Red, you weren't on the list. 

buttmint's picture

...time to call up Cuba Gooding jr and pilot that Fuel-to-Air superbomb and deploy a couple of dozen of these rascals over all of West Africa. If you need a refresher, view the vid "OutBreak" and change the sappy Hollywood ending.


The Christian volunteers there cleaning up ebola spew in a former clininc will just be experiencing Rapture a little earlier than planned.


(Yawn)  sarc/


californiagirl's picture

Did the IPCC come up with this model?

are we there yet's picture

Dustin Hoffman cured ebola in a few days, and he was not even a real doctor.

On Ebolas bright side, it has stopped my Nigerian scam email somehow.


Quaderratic Probing's picture

We can only hope it becomes something less lethal as it mutates, opps sounds like evolution.

robertocarlos's picture

The paper published a picture of a Liberian man lying on the ground with about a dozen people staring at him. He had soiled his pants badly. So when your picture makes the papers don't be too surprised.

MsCreant's picture

Is this an example of capitalism fucking up?

I am for letting the market decide. I am for small govt. Keep out of my wallet, keep out of my bedroom, I will chip in some amount for security of life and property. I really believe that is best and where we need to evolve to.


No profit, not enough research, not enough resources being mobilized to deal with Ebola. 

Failure of capitalism?

I am not saying I know the answer here, but these are important questions. Is this a place where "free markets" are weak and something that looks a little more socialist could respond better to the crisis?

MsCreant's picture

Thanks for your reply. I like how you turned my line of thinking inside out. It is a failure of "crony corporatism" because of the central planning. I have no idea what a "free market response" would have been to judge one, because I have not seen one. 

I appreciate your refocusing of the issue.

Edit: It went away, I thought it was good!

tony bonn's picture

if you want to stop ebola, then you need to arrest the entire joint chiefs of staff, and all senior leaders in the pentagon. ebola was developed by dod - it was not accident....it is part of the satanic rothschild/rockefeller/ziocon murderers plan to reduce world population.