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Why Scotland Has All The Leverage, In One Chart
As Scotland prepares to vote for or against Independence from the Union on Thursday, it appears everyone has an opinion on what may, what should and what will happen. At the basis of every such opinion is some basis in fact, misguided as it may be in most cases, about who has all the leverage, with the dominant one being that Scotland would make a horrendous mistake if it says goodbye to the UK and puts a border around what is currently a third of UK's landmass.
Some, such as Deutsche Bank, the bank that has the single greatest derivative exposure in the world and is therefore most leveraged to maintaining the status quo, saw its "Chief Economist & Member, Group Executive Committee, Deutsche Bank AG" David Folkerts-Landau personally put pen to paper on Friday and in rambling, demagogic terms, explain why it would be a "Wrong Turn" for Scotland to seek self-determination.
He says that, "A "Yes" vote for Scottish independence on Thursday would go down in history as a political and economic mistake as large as Winston Churchill's decision in 1925 to return the pound to the Gold Standard or the failure of the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient liquidity to the US banking system, which we now know brought on the Great Depression in the US. These decisions – well-intentioned as they were – contributed to years of depression and suffering and could have been avoided had alternative decisions been taken." Sure, there could have been no gold standard and the Fed could have gone full-Bernanke, and it would only have kicked the can a few years leading to an even greater depression, as the recent paradigm of "bubble to bubble" transitions, described by none other than Deutsche Bank, is where the world finds itself. In fact, it is DB that admitted last week that without a bubble, the western financial way of life is finished.
DB's Landau concludes with the following outright propaganda:
Most importantly, the world as it is evolving in the 21st century is a highly uncertain place with unstable geopolitics and a stressed economic and financial outlook. Why anyone would want to exit a successful economic and political union with a G-5 country – a union which another part of Europe so desperately seeks to emulate – to go it alone for the benefit of... what exactly, is incomprehensible to this author.
Well, maybe let's ask what is increasingly a majority of Europeans across the ill-fated and artificial Eurozone, whose fixed currency means the only devaluation possible is internal, read crashing wages. But of course, the head of something or another at Deutsche Bank has nothing to worry about in this regard.
And yet, as always, the bottom line is about leverage and bargaining power. It is here that, miraculously, things once again devolve back to, drumroll, oil, and the fact that an independent Scotland would keep 90% of the oil revenues! As we showed several days ago, Scotland's oil may be the single biggest wildcard in the entire Independence movement.
It is this oil, and its interconnectedness within the UK economy, that as SocGen's Albert Edwards shows earlier this morning, is what gives Scotland all the leverage.
From Edwards:
it is increasingly likely that it too it will be joining Scotland in permanently exiting the EU club. First of all, consider the vulnerability of sterling after a Yes vote for Scottish independence. Even without North Sea oil revenues, the UK current account situation is a mess. The left-hand chart below is one I put up at the end of our flagship conference in January this year. The point I made was it is absolutely extraordinary for the UK to be beginning an economic cycle with a current account deficit of around 5-6% of GDP. Normally this is a level the UK or any other developed countries get to at a height of a boom after years of overspending on consumer imports. I think I described the UK position as an economic abomination of the highest order and that this economic cycle was likely to end some years from now in a calamitous sterling crisis - just like we used to have in the past.
Our specialist macro salesperson, Richard Walker, thinks that it is in the rUK's economic interest to retain some sort of currency union with Scotland after independence as he points out Ireland did after its own independence in 1922 until 1979. He believes the maths for the rUK just don't add up - on the basis of an independent Scotland keeping 90% of the oil revenues the rUK current account deficit for the full year would have been around 7% of GDP instead of 4½% (also see right-hand chart above).
There's that pesky "mathematics" again. Here is what the math reveals:
Personally I don't believe that the rUK will conceive it possible that any continued currency union is feasible after independence having observed the eurozone mess. That means the yawning fault line in the UK's economic situation will be revealed for all to see. Indeed since we used that chart of the UK's current account mess in January this year, the deficit in Q3 last year was revised from 5% to 6% of GDP! That horrendous deficit persisted in Q4 at just under 6% of GDP but improved somewhat in Q1 of this year to 4.4% of GDP. That improvement though to me looks erratic and liable to reverse, most especially as the trade deficit through July continued to deteriorate. So, if rather than the 2013 full-year UK current account deficit of 4½% of GDP; the underlying situation is more reflective of the almost 6% deficit seen in H2, then the rUK current deficit will be nearer to 8 1/2% of GDP! The UK is due to release its 2014 Q2 Current Account data on 30 Sept.
For the UK as a whole the current account deficit is awful. For the rUK it is simply untenable. If investors are selling sterling in anticipation of a Yes vote, the economic reality of a rump rUK will see sterling quite rightly plunge into the abyss way before the end of the economic cycle (where we previously expected the turmoil would come).
Which also means that contrary to the UK's fire and brimstone, it is the UK that has much more to lose in a world in which Scottish oil output is suddenly unavailable to plug current account deficit gaps, something the US has been able to do in the past 5 years courtesy of the transitory shale boom.
The vulnerability of sterling in a rUk world is made much worse as investors come to grips with the increasing prospect that the rUK will be leaving the EU. Capital will not be moving from north of the Scottish border to the south. It will be moving out of the UK altogether. And, with the rUK needing to attract capital at an unprecedented avaricious rate for this point in the cycle, this ain't going to be pretty. Interest rates, which are probably set to rise next year anyway, may be set to rise a whole lot faster than anticipated if we get a good old-fashioned sterling crisis, with the good old-fashioned inevitable recessionary consequences thrown in.
The bottom line, at least to Edwards, is that Thursday's vote will set in motion the independence not only for Scotland, but for the UK from the EU club:
So in the event of a Yes vote in the imminent Scottish referendum I would expect both Scotland (involuntarily) and the rUK (voluntarily) to find themselves outside of the EU club.
And should that happen, all bets are off for the continued existence of the greatest "unionization" experiment in modern history: Europe itself.
We saw similar trends towards political extremes to a greater or lesser extent in the beleaguered GIIPS (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) during the crisis. As Dylan has previously explained, political extremism becomes a very attractive proposition when a country comes under stress. Europe has a long history of such tendencies. Separatist and nationalist movements throughout Europe are gaining a stronger foothold with nationalist fault lines previously thought dormant awakening in unison right across Europe - see for example this interesting article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - link. The outcome of a Yes vote in Scotland may have as unpredictable consequences as did events in Eastern Europe in the late 1980s. A yes vote will send the EU bicycle (or if you prefer, shark) into reverse for the first time since the 1957 Treaty of Rome, with wholly unpredictable consequences.
Good luck, Scotland. The fate of a century of globalization and wealth-transfer efforts suddenly lies on your shoulders.
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Pull the damn trigger!
There's a 90 day return policy.....what the hell?
whoever ends up with Scotland will own the keys to manipulating BFOE... if you thought LIBOR manipulation was bad, you ain't seen nothin' yet...
I've been suspicious of those Scots hiding WMDs in churches, schools, and hospitals.
Am I ahead of the curve on this?
Cue war drums...
Scotland is key ... UK will not be able to survive intact and it will effect geopolitics worldwide.
Funny how things change with just a referendum ... people around the world should learn from this example and do the same ...
just divorce, dont have to kill each other!
Choose life...
Im going long blue face paint and broad swords.
+100 silverisking
"an independent Scotland would keep 90% of the oil revenues" which is why we must boots-on-the-ground them
This banker pimp piece is pure garbage. He puts words in the mouth of citizens and makes some pretty insane assumptions.
Typical idiot financial dude. Too stupid and incompetent to provide any real value to the economy, other than writing his fictional opinions (like anyone cares), insider trading, and manipulating PM's and Forex.
These bankers are total sleaze balls.
What is funny is how he argues Scottish independence is stupid like having a gold stanard or NOT printing money. Case closed. Thank you Douche Bank for summing up the pro independence argument so succinctly!
It's important; and when it's important, you lie; remember ? The propaganda machine is screaming in high gear.
Bavarian making noise. The Prussians want Austria's Silesia back.
CATS AND DOGS LIVING TOGETHER! TOTAL CHAOS!
But it's been a thousand years of friendship and cooperation...
Hmmm. Where have I heard that before?
SilverIsKing: You stole my thunder. (Actually, you didn't steal it. You won it fair and square.)
Maybe that is why so many towels have been allowed into the country over the years. Gotta plan ahead for these contingencies!
Get ready for some bizarre propaganda about what Scotsmen really wear under their kilts.
I hear ISIS have already hijacked a boat and are on their way.
They're going to open a new franchise and call it the Scottish ISIL.
many have suggested my sword is broad.
Oil revenues are now insinificant to England (About GBP 7 Billion PA and falling), which, unlike Norway (Which sensibly invested its revenues from North sea oil and gas in a Sovereign Wealth Fund), has pissed away the vast majority of the income. That allowed Thatcher to work her "Miracles" by pouring all the oil money into wasteful BS.
If the Scots want independence it is their choice but IMHO the consequences will be dire. The Devil is in the detail and none of the detail has been worked out yet.
Incidentally, if the Scots have the right to "Self-determination", without the other half of the divorce having any say, why should it be any different in The Crimea and Eastern Ukraine? Double standards again??
Wait, so because England failed to develop it's future Scotland is automatically cursed to repeat the situation?
What a lousy argument.
Not my arguement at all. Please refer to the title of the Article which is "Why Scotland has all the leverage", implying oil revenues are the key. That is what I dispute. And I do accept Scotland's right of self-determination (See above).
The fact is, and you can blame who you will, most of the North Sea revenues have already gone. Had The UK invested the revenues wisely, like Norway, Scotland could now be claiming a share of a very large Soveriegn wealth fund as part of the terms for separation. Blame Thatcher for that, not the Scots. But it is all "Water under the bridge". Which was my initial point.
Net Net, England subsidises Scotland to the tune of about GBP 30 Billion PA. That doesn't include indirect subsidies from businesses which would re-locate to England after a Scotland separation.
I have no problem with it being the choice of Scots themselves. Equally, I have no problem with it being the choice of Crimeans and East Ukranians themselves.
Sweden just a big election where the two party system over there got taken to the woodshed too. "Hurry up! Label everyone but you a Nazi!"
The sooner the Nuremberg Trials of the current order gets underway the better. The USA might even get the moral authority it squandered in 1989 back. What a Nation of Losers the USA has become. Even the propaganda isn't even trying to make sense anymore. "Go phuck yourself" seems to be the bi-partisan platform now.
There have been massive finds in recent years but hushed for reasons quite obvious. After a no vote, look for them to be announced. Until then have a wee peak at this, this, this and this.
Scotland will have a claim on the Arctic. It will be interesting to see if Scots quietly demand to take over those ships in the harbor on Friday morning. When the divvying up of Arctic claims starts in earnest (because of course there is no global warming/sarc), number of ships is going to matter. Denmark has all of Greenland but they will have a tough time makiing their claim stick. Same with the Norwegians. Same for the Canucks. Scots pols also know that after GBrowne there won't be another Scots PM in the UK for a long, long time.
Whether or not a given revenue stream is in-significant or not; depends on whether or not you're 'canny"; eh? A small revenue stream is better than a negative balance of payments. The Scots are verrry canny, Laddie; they can make do.
This is the first real moment that has been presented to slap the NWO in the face.
SEIZE THE MOMENT!!!!
I don't believe that they will succeed though. There is too much riding on this for the higher ups and they will never let it happen. How do you beat the guy that counts the votes?
Unless they want it to happen and need something to conveniently blame.
They will always have next year, another election
NOW is the time!
Do not allow an additional year of scaremonger tactics.
No progress is possible without positive thought.
For our children and grandchildren, the cartels must be smashed.
UK is fine....they have a printer!
I have a direct family ancestor who wore a sling on his right arm around the town, one fine day, and when people asked him how his arm was; he replied, ":it be fair sore from the killing of Englishmen all morning"; which was literally true on that day. Forget, my ass; REMEMBER.
What do we threaten the Scots with next?
I've been to Scotland, but am definitely no expert. But, I hope the Scots throw off the yoke. It would also be a crack in the new world order plan that could energize the world. For that reason TPTB will pull out all the stops, you can expect vote tampering.
More than a 100,000 Scots 16 and 17 years of age are registering to vote. Who knows, perhaps these young people and the spirit of William Wallace will see Scotland through to freedom.
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/scotlandshistory/warsofindependence/...
"you can expect vote tampering."
It's the only way they can win, been going on for years and years.
They are going to have to have all the police and national guard at all US voting stations.
The fireworks haven't even started yet.
It won't be necessary to weaponize the fight to maintain Scotland as an economic colony of the Damned filthy English, (yes, I am a Scot). As you may have noticed, all the propaganda stops have been pulled out to "11"; and the spin machine is whirling frantically. Nowadays, the public opinion managers can get you to vote for a Kenyan; as un-likely as that may seem; or to continue your economic slavery.
Scotland, grab the oil and say "f.ck you" to the parasitic City of London ruling you for centuries!
I can just imagine the City of London redrawing its borders to define itself as a part of Scotland ...
Yes, I truly am that ignorant in such matters, but since when has the world made sense anyway?
Things might be changing in Great Britain, but it not-so-great Italy, things stay the same,
an example ?
Meanwhile in Italy...
www.retelitfraud.com
Retelit is quoted on milan stock exchange: No CEO, No CFO, No brains and equity value destruction that continues to go ahead unnoticed
check it out, it's quite shocking:
http://www.retelitfraud.com/mystery-solved-just-value-destructive-value-...
http://www.retelitfraud.com/che-cazzo-stanno-facendo-adesso/
This article is not about Italy.
You're damned right, William. And they can stuff their opinion on the Scots in their Asses.
It's interesting how when large groups of people withdraw their consent by way of voting that is construed as a legitimate mechanism. However, if an individual decides to withdraw their consent they are a terrorist or a nut job. It just goes to show you that the individual means absolutely nothing to society other than being a cash cow for the collective. #socialcontractconjob
Anything that sends the EU bicycle into reverse is greatly to be desired; as the longer the farce continues, the more dire the consequence for the long suffering populace.
Texas, Alaska, Southern Leauge, Hawaii, NE and the Canadian Maritimes (And whoever wants California???) are you listening????
If the vote goes yes I expect the eventual splatter pattern to be of Jackson Pollard quality and the flying crap will go everywhere......
Vote Yes and be done with it.
Vote Yes but do not join the EU or become part of the Euro. If you do you will get screwed over like Ireland.
Walk like an Icelander.......show the way to true freedom.
William Wallace.
Stone of Scone.
Tap, tap.....is this thing on?
Here we go
Goldman is rounding up all the Scots on the payroll. They will be inserted into the new leadership if there is a Yes vote. These fucking snakes will steer the independent Scotland towards the bankers wishes. Make bet on that missy!
Good point. Scotland should, as a first order of business if it does become independent, expel all current and former Goldman employees and anyone appearing to have Goldman influence.
From a national security standpoint, if they treat Goldman like a parasitic terror group as a matter of policy, things should go well for the new Scotland.
Yup, until we bomb their terrorist asses.
Freddie, I remember the tapes where the Anglo-Irish Bank executives were bragging how they would screw all europeans, including Germans and Irish
But don't let facts disturb your Myth of Ireland being screwed by the EUR
Every European citizen is being screwed by the EURO that is created as debt owed to a privatly owned and controlled central bank instead of using their national debtfree currency created by their own national central bank.
Edward bernays is no stranger to you..
free_lunch, your argument is wrong, when it comes to the ECB. because it's owned and controlled by national banks, not a private cartel of NY Wall Street banks like the FED, as I was explaining in greater detail further down in the same article. the EUR, for all it's faults, is a very public fiat currency
hell, even the British Pound is a public fiat currency, then the Bank of England was nationalized right after the Second World War
Gordy, please check the auto loan subprime bubble piece here today, ie the post about auto dealers in wheelchairs
Goldman Sachs takes over America and now Europe
The European Scam Mechanism(ESM)
The Maastricht Treaty and the Statute of the ESCB of the primary objective of price stability, the pursuit of which is delegated to an independent central bank system
The Treaty (in Article 107) and the Statute of the ESCB (in Article 7) both contain very clear provisions regarding the relationship with third parties, which leave no room whatsoever for misinterpretation. To quote a key sentence: "neither the ECB, nor a national central bank, nor any member of their decision-making bodies shall seek or take instructions from Community institutions or bodies, from any government of a Member State or from any other body". Moreover, the aforementioned authorities shall also - and I quote again - "undertake to respect this principle and not to seek to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the ECB or of the national central banks in the performance of their tasks".
So taking no instructions from 'the people', but seeking instructions at regulary BIS meetings with international bankers?
Conspiracy fact: Top central bankers meet secretly every six weeks at BIS"especially now that the world's central bankers, five years after the Lehman crash, are more powerful than ever. They set interest rates and control the money supply, oversee governments and banks and, like Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, are treated a bit like movie stars by the public.
To an extent unprecedented in postwar history, monetary watchdogs -- who are not elected and are usually independent of their countries' governments -- determine what happens in politics and on the markets. They are the new "masters of the universe." Yet their internal discussions on the effects of their power do not give the impression of resounding success. Growth is limping along in the world's major economies; banks, households and governments are deeply in debt; and the bankers' so-called unconventional monetary policy is running up against its limits everywhere.
"
Ghordius must be forgiven, with all that history in (his / her) head..ghordius cannot remember that the FED supported banks such as Dexia in 08 and 09..per ghordius calling the Fed a cartel of NY wall street banks.
Ghordius what other EU banks got bailed out, it will come back to you..the euro was never enough to keep the EU banks afloat.
+1 for the detail, yet my argument is about control of central banking by megabanks. perhaps I have to write a longer commentary on it, one of those days
have a look at your argument: megabanks cried for help, and who came to the rescue with the biggest guns?
....... Anglo-Irish Banksters?? do bankers associate themselves to particular nations?? I was under the impression they believe themselves omnipotently etherial...... like to test that theory one day ....
the executives of the bank called Anglo Irish Bank (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo_Irish_Bank / www.angloirishbank.ie), which nearly bankrupted Ireland, and is now called Irish Bank Resolution Corporation
read the legendary ZH article where they picked the sum of what they wanted for their bailout out of their arse:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-24/anglo-irish-picked-bailout-numb...
It's puzzling that you keep suggesting these criminals somehow represent the average Irishman who did not condone or even know about their theft. They used their (bought with stolen money) political influence to avoid the criminal prosecution that they deserved. They stole from Ireland, just as they stole from everyone else that they could steal from. They also stole from Ireland's unborn as well, who could not have been a party to their theft.
It should be noted that "Anglo" comes before "Irish" in the bank's name.
The London banks and the ECB had a legal and moral responsibility to ensure that thefts such as these did not happen. They failed miserably in their responsibility.
to me it's puzzling that you keep misreading what I'm writing. where did I "suggest these criminals somehow represent the average Irishman"?
FeralSerf, who was the regulator in charge of the Irish bank called "Anglo-Irish"? Not London banks and for sure not the ECB, at those times
people keep bringing the Myth of Ireland Being Screwed by Outside Forces
I keep bringing the FACT that Irish Criminals Did It. You keep distorting my point by construing an Attack On The Average Innocent Irishman
is it just impossible for you to contemplate that Ireland Got Screwed By Irish Criminals While The Irish Regulator Slept And The Irish Government Looked Away From A Giant Real Estate Bubble?
It's pretty difficult to believe that all those expert bankers with all of their big expensive staffs and information systems in London and Frankfurt had no idea what was going on in the Irish banks. Are you suggesting they all were playing kangaroo with their heads in the sand?
It was no secret that there was something wrong with Irish property market.
Is it just impossible for you to contemplate that Ireland Got Screwed By international banking Criminals While The Irish Regulator Slept And The Irish Government Looked Away From A Giant Real Estate Bubble?
From the evidence, one can reasonably suspect that the so-called Irish "Regulator" and many in the Irish Government were sleeping with the enemies of the Irish people. Bribery is an international crime.
if you put it this way, then no, I even think you have a solid theory with vast amounts of evidence
the problem is that every possible bubble has those ingredients, strike the international criminal intent. When it bursts, you find some bankers were careless, others outright criminal, sometimes putting the bill on the taxpayer, and others - sometimes hedgies, sometimes investment funds profiting from the mess
from a national point of view, someone has to open the gates for the enemy. is bribery strictly necessary? imho, no. profit makes some blind enough
Ghordius is just a eloquent mercenary for the international banksters and their EU, he tries to use deception and distraction to confuse average Joe, while promoting global debt enslavement and the sovjet like EUSSR dictatorship.
He tries to present himself as one of us using the Irish bankers phone calls, and tries to separate this from the central banking scammers..
In any big crime, it's important to have one's patsies lined up so the real criminals can get away unscathed with the loot.
It was like taking candy from a baby.
me promoting debt enslavement? dear free_lunch, I don't think so. I regard the modern debt peddling akin to drug pushing. I, for example, am all for state intervention in limiting personal debt levels. I find the Swiss and their recent political moves in this direction - together with the previous restrictions they already have, as very interesting
the way a banking system has to work is imho something different from how a monetary system should work
Escaping one slave master to run into the arms of another.
It will be amazing how fast terrorists groups target Scotland because they voted to be free. Cameron is thinking, let's, I mean if ISIS bombs Scotland, we can use that to get the UK behind another war. Two birds with one stone!
A real consideration since the NWO sponsors terror groups.
LOL. Not to worry; no Scot is going to vote to join the bloody crazy EU.
Groundskeeper Willie sums it up well. But with petrodollars on the line, some voting irregularites may be observed.
Don't worry Diebold will take care of that
Zero yes votes....it was a miracle.
How strong is the UK's free shit army? Will the mighty legion vast show up at the polls?
Mi5 and Mi6 will be carefully supervising the vote-count. This should be quite comforting to the Scots.
It won't pass, although I wish it would!
Be positive
Remain hopeful
I would love to see Scotia advertise extremely favorable tax and banking regulations, an iron clad offshore banking mecca if you will and tell the US/UK/EU to ram it when they come a knocking....... you know a good old fashion cunt punt.....
Cunt punt, I love that phrase...
Several complex issues surround the idea of Scotland going off on its own. If Scotland wants independence then so be it, but sorting out the political and economic ties with the rest of the UK, may be difficult. Scotland has to be allowed to stand on its own two feet without the rest of the UK financially and economically supporting it. The Euro proves that more than one sovereign country cannot easily use the same currency. Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Spain have discovered that you cannot have full independence and share a currency. Another issue is how much of the debt the UK owes will be transferred to the new nation. More on the issues surrounding the pound and an independent Scotland in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/british-pound-and-independant-sco...
"The Euro proves that more than one sovereign country cannot easily use the same currency"
so full sovereignty/independence is all about the power of devalue (which is a "soft" form of default) (on) your promises/debt/currency?
If so, it follows that a sovereign using gold... would be less sovereign & independent then one using fiat, eh?
That's a funny statement.
An honest person can never win from a gifted cheater.
The most deceptive and evil one will always win, because a moral man's actions are limited by his moral standard, a psychopath has no limits and will eat babies alive if this gets him 1 inch closer to victory.
This means that the nature of things makes it highly likely that key positions will be won by the most evil men. Cheered by other evil men who bond to gain advantage.. You see them on ZH as well, don't look to far..
Gold would be preferred, but it can only work if fiat is valued for what it is: worthless paper and thus refused by every nation.
It is like doping in sports, as long as some are using it, it is unfair competition that is bad news for everybody, even the winner/cheater because he is destroying his health.
Relax. We're about to roar past peak-cheating and Babylon will all crumble down.
"An honest person can never win from a gifted cheater" Strange, I thought the saying went like: "You can't cheat a honest person"
Successful economic and political union......... LOl.... if the union was successful then they wouldn't want to leave it........ idiot.
They will talk this thing up like it's too close to call in order to keep people on edge, but in the end the only thing that matters is who counts the votes and we all know how that turns out.
Well, it's successful for SOMEBODY, just not the Scots. Who might it be? Hmmm... nobody comes to might right now.
Who currently gets the oil revenue, and in what percent? Although, as others have noted, their oilfields are in decline.
How DO Scots count votes?
Do they use electronic voting, or punch cards, or do they do like in Canada and have checkmarks on paper reviewed by human beings?
How the votes are counted is a pretty important factor.
Would it be Scotland's oil - or would it be the Shetland Islands oil?
Of course, if the Shetlands stuck with England, the Scot could invade, even rename the place to something that ryhmes with "Malvenes".
I hate to state the OBVIOUS but strategically your all missing the MORE important point;
1.) That the Northern Ports are some of the only deep water ports for the British Navy in the UK colony's. The kind of places you keep your top-secret NUCLEAR SUBMARINES; and your entire fleet of Naval Vessels;
2.) Yes, 99% of UK's real VALUE intrinsically comes from NORTH-SLOPE OIL; if they lose that then they become a PARASITE in the middle of shit; something quite like Israel;
I suggest that LONDON will kill everyone in Scotland and Ireland, before they give up this kind of power.
This would be like AIPAC-USA giving up control of the FED-RESERVE FIAT-TO-INFINITY printing press; You all can talk all day long; but None of this shit will happen until USA, ISRAEL, and LONDON are NUKED; and Sealed in GLASS.
Even with Scotland, UK is a PARASITE in the middle. Without it? From all the commentary about what a drag on UK Scotland is with all the transfer payments you'd think that UK would be better off kicking Scotland to the curb. It's all quite amusing to me. I say vote YES for independence and stick a big fat finger in that Bank of Englands face. They've been ripping the world off for what 300+ years now? Tell them to bugger off and have done with it.
"Surely you jest, Mr. Feynman"
Are YOU the real Ward Churchill?
Either that or Scottish independence isn't going to mean what people think its going to mean. The negotiations (behind closed doors) will continue long after a 'Yes' vote.
David Folkerts-Landau is a rambling piece of shite. But I digress.
Scotland will not be allowed to leave. It would cause a cascading effect across europe.
The vote will be 50.3% to stay part of the british isles. Diebold.
actually, that may be the plan : sacrifice the UK to break the EU and leave the US the sole "western" leader.
Now there's a plan !
OT, but in other conspiracy and rigged market news, Miss New York won the Miss America crown for the third straight time.
I make the odds 50 to the third ~ 12,500 to one..., ignoring the territories and Barry's 57 states.
OK, Yellen does worse over her morning prune juice, but the Misses are easier on the eyes;)
Scotland a new Switzerland and Iceland combined. A magnet for capital, technology based on a free and open internet, no Rothchild central bank, hard currency and no NATO ties.
Top priority would be joining BRIC associate states in developing an alternative SWIFT system and securing communications traffic outside of NSA reach. Much more but that should give them an idea of what could be. Oh, by the way, fuck the monarchy.
oh im sure somewhere a rothchild or similar is egging scotland on because they see a nickle in it for them somehow.
Because a new country with oil revenue is like a mule with a spinning wheel. No one knows how he got it and danged if he knows how to use it!
LOL. Indeed sir, but we can dream can't we.
The trillionaire redshields aren't interested in a few more pounds. They want more power to control the entire globe.
People might be voting on Thursday, but their vote will not count.
There is little doubt in my mind that the greatest swindle is being prepared by Downing St and the UK intelligence services to have substitute ballot boxes taking the place of real ones. The substitute votes will of course in the majority be for Scotland to remain within the UK.
if anyone thinks I am joking then let me remind them of LIBOR, gold etc.
If I was the party in favour of independence I would be following and staying with those ballot boxes all the way to wherever they are counted and until they are counted.
Hain't they got no voting machines, Mate?
Even the Darkies in Philly gots voting machines. Saves Laybah;)
The result will be rigged regardless of whether they are using machines or ballot boxes. Computers are easier to rig as one presidential hopeful in the USA found out a few years ago.
It all comes down to money - and with the oil revenues Scotland is probably sending more money 'to' the UK than it gets in return. When crunch time comes to the US debt, and given the polarized political state we have, it seems plausible that there could be a similar vote in the US between 'Red' states and 'Blue' states over the inability to continue paying out benefits and entitlements using nothing more than more debt.
"Well, maybe let's ask what is increasingly a majority of Europeans across the ill-fated and artificial Eurozone, whose fixed currency means the only devaluation possible is internal, read crashing wages."
there is another "fixed" currency: gold
Sorry, but the argument above is pro-fiat, pro-elastic-currency and pro-inflate-the-monetary-base-to-escape-all-problems. In short: Keynesian
is there any anti-EUR argument that ultimatively isn't Keynesian? If yes, I haven't seen it yet
Until then, you are making the ECB a compliment, by stating that it's monetary regime is having a similar effect to what a gold regime would. Remember that the core of the Austrian School's teaching is that after overshoots, readjustments follow... unless you re-inflate to the max, or devalue, which is the same
So I ask: if the eurozone was using gold, would you trot out this very same argument? IMHO, it looks like you would, except that your call for devaluation would be... impossible to follow
Saddam Hussein and Ghadafi wanted to trade oil for gold. Look what that got them. Scotland won't be treated any differently by the Vampire Squid.
Q-daffy wanted to exchange oil for ukrainian women, like the Barbaresque pirates of old.
I think that they hated him most for that, the Westerners, who took him out.
They could not stand his love for white femen in his own harem.
Sarko told him so : I don't want you shaking, rattling and rolling your tent all night long on the Elysee lawn.
Obammy was scared he'd do the same thing on the WH lawn. Can't have that.
Prefer a drunk Elstin to a shaggy dawg Q-daffy.
No Siree!
Scotland's best bet is to unloose the Loch Ness Monster, heading south.
True leverage.
"whose fixed currency means the only devaluation possible is internal, read crashing wages."
The main difference between devaluating the currency and internal devaluation is that with currency devaluation every citizen including the rich loses wealth, by internal devaluation it is only the working class that gets screwed.
The issue with the EUR is not that it is FIAT. It is that it is FIAT created out of thin air as debt owed to the private banking cartel that owns the ECB. Instead of debtfree public money created by a public owned and controlled public central bank like it should be.
free_lunch, with this "...FIAT created out of thin air as debt owed to the private banking cartel that owns the ECB..." argument,
you are taking a valid argument against the FED... and misusing it against the ECB. because the ECB's owners are national banks. I'm using the term national because they are (mostly, then sometimes the fact is hidden by "pro forma" shareholders like provincial banks, which are owned by provinces, for example the German Landesbanken) owned by the countries (including that one shareholder that does not use the EUR, the Bank of England), and so by the public
this is not true with the FED, which is owned by a cartel of private NY Wall Street banks, which then leads to your argument
Can we vote them out if they are corrupt and work against average Joe to the benefit of the rich? Can we vote them out if they appear braindead f*ckups that can't do anything right?
No? What is the difference does it make then?
in Europe, we can. though not directly, but that's our system (Parliamentarism), which does everything indirectly, through Parliament
this applies too to the personnel, as an example which you can search in ZH: France and Italy had long, long discussions until they agreed on Draghi as ECB prez. And every governor is a political appointee, which makes 18 votes (one from each country) out of (from memory) 24
"work against average Joe to the benefit of the rich?" in Europe? I hope you aren't one of those Americans that calls Europe socialist, are you? Then this is what true socialists believe in, working for the average Joe and protect him from the rapacity of the rich
Wouldn't get too excited, the North Sea is well past peak (1999) with 40 billion barrels pumped and about 20 billion remaining (and production costs grow towards the end).
The UK lost any significance as an energy producer over a decade ago. The decline of production is rapid (see charts linked below). All that's left now is to make the sign of the cross and start fracking. Yes there are rumours of secret mega fields that the Scots are sitting on, but I'll only believe it when I see it.
Reality check from 1 year ago: http://www.theautomaticearth.com/energy-is-a-power-game-2-britain-is-los...
Fresh update here: http://euanmearns.com/for-a-few-trillion-barrels-more/#more-4504
A lot of hot air going around. The UK is screwed energy-wise with or without Scotland. The Scots will be slightly better off alone (from an energy standpoint), but it's likely to be a messy divorce.
Bear in mind that the real enemy is a small % of sociopathic banksters and effective independence means getting away from their influence. Scottish independence is no such thing. Banksters run the UK now and banksters will still run an independent Scotland so it's pain for likely no gain.
As long as RBS keeps its charter, the whole thing is just a fucking show.
RBS will move HQ to London Town if the vote succeeds.
What about a step in the right direction? Could it be a step in the right direction?
And we all know the show must go on, fucking or not.
England still has a lot of coal and beyond coal, reserves of thorium.
Yo Scotland - be on the lookout for a jewish-looking woman with a possible nosejob who might be handing out cookies for "No" votes. Please prove to the world that your heritage is of higher intellect than the ukranians.
Avoid her, or ice-bucket challenge her against her will to your leisure.
I up voted you but I bet your post gets pulled, cant use the J word here any more....
well alright... henceforth the code word for j is "chinese". I'm sure they'll have no probs with that.
How hypocritical our modern world is
JUICE
JUWS
JUZE
JULLIET ECHO WHISKY SIERRA
JWZ
........ OK I think I'm done anyone else want to play my silly game??
Alpha Mike Foxtrot ...... baker 26 out
Precisely. Every other race on earth is no prob. Except whites. Hunting season is open
If you're a white Marine in a Mexican prison......you're pretty much screwed.
We'd get him out.....but we ran out of terrorists to trade.
He was in treatment, had just seen the doc, with guns in the truck, I have a feeling he will be there a while longer.
Or TFJ.
well alright... henceforth the code word for j is "chinese". I'm sure they'll have no probs with that.
i8 ;-)
Their isn't a place on this earth where the "Ashkenazi weed" hasn't stepped foot to set up it's usury "license"...
Ever heard the expression "Jews of the Orient"?!!!
Are they using Diebold voting machines? If so no worries
As a general rule, anything which that miserable, avericious POS George Soros says is bad, is probably going to benefit the common Man.
The EU is in the process of being compleatly overun by impoverished third world immigrantes. The immigration strategy seems to be a sort of Cloward and Piven on steroids.
Self determination? How dare they.
ScotCoin
BitCoin Last Price $480
NEW WORLD ORDER......................on the way!
Forget the oil, ... please address the important issue: will it be cheaper to buy Lophraig and Lagavulin before thursday or after thursday????
Scapa FTW!
oil = assets to be seized in payment for EU accession (Italy and Cyprus in one)
It will be a crushing blow when the rigging establishment votes for the status quo.
Do it Scotland, you won't do it...
A free Scotland would make a wonderful FATCA-free banking center for zee goldstackers. Position to be like Switzerland, circa 1950, with oil and scotch. Go Scotland!
90% of the oil? No wonder everyone from the Queen on down are practically wettting themselves!
Scotland also makes/exports thier wonderful Single Malt Scotch.
Also St. Andrews etc. as the birthplace/mecca for golf tourism, and tourism in general.
Looks to me like England might collapse without Scotland!
Trident base.
Most of Scotland's oil is actually near the Shetland Islands, which will probably push to remain part of the UK if the Scots vote for independence.
i see two charts
Jeremy Paxman believes it is a scandal that British citizens not living inScotland are denied a vote in Thursday's independence referendum.
Yeah right, the UK should have a say in what happens to Scotland... Like the EU should have a say in letting the UK leave the EU or not, LOL!
To boot:
"The trend in the modern world is towards an erosion of national borders. If it turns out the Scots really do want to create a new one, then let's have a proper frontier, with passport controls and barbed wire and Alsatian dogs and watchtowers on the banks of the Tweed."
The man is a nazi.
The Brits are a funny lot, still can't let go of their aspirations of being a superpower, but settling for the US's lapdog position at the same time.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/14/jeremy-paxman-scottish-i...
"The Brits are a funny lot, still can't let go of their aspirations of being a superpower"
Sounds like some russians I know...
LOL, +1. There is indeed this strange argument that all British citizens should be able to vote about it. Now, imagine they would, and Scots would vote Yes while the English, the Welsh and the Northern Irish would vote No. What then?
Though some of the discontent has a simple reason: many Scots live in England/London, and are so barred from this poll. Meanwhile, every EU country citizen living in Scotland is allowed to vote (!)
I, too, find this thinking that "there must be animosity between England and Scotland after a Yes" a bit on the nazi side. Yes, Brits are a funny lot, but they can be very, very civilized among themselves. I don't see any reason why they can't divorce amicably, with just a few (inconsequential) breathless news headers from time to time
as a reminder: half a million Irish live in the UK, mostly in England, and they are even allowed to vote for the Westminster Parliament, and are treated as full citizens
no reason why an independent Scotland should not do the same with rUK citizens, and Westminster returning the favour, for example
The reason they don't give we the English the vote is because we could want indepdendence from Great Britain ourselves. I would be the first to vote for independence from Scotland, as must most patriotic Englishmen.
THey have all the single malt leverage as well
Come on Scotland!!
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PSH0eRKq1lE
Long Scotland, Short England, FtUK.
Put your Au frame arond this read.
Might as well say it...
Prepare thyself for a "9/11 Anniversary" redux moment as a nice diversionary tactic.
I've never seen the bloated living corpse of George Soros look so ashen gray with the statement(s) he made about Scotland's abdication from the Mother Ship last week...
These guys are fucking desperate!
When a scum sucking banker tells you "If you do that, you are making a huge mistake", then you damn well better do it, or you are making a huge mistake.