4 C’s That Could Change The Financial World As We Know It, Again

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mark St. Cyr

4 C’s That Could Change The Financial World As We Know It, Again

Those 4 C’s are: Confirmation, Crisis, Contagion, Catastrophe.

What type of confirmation could send the financial markets into such turmoil it could rock the very bastions of finance as we now know it?

First: Scotland votes yes to leave the U.K. If this turns out to be so, it could send shock-waves throughout the markets that run the world. i.e., Forex or World currencies.

No one with any financial acumen can look seriously at the markets as they stand at the time of this writing, and seriously argue the markets are prepared for such a resolution happening this Thursday.

If Scotland truly does vote Yes and confirms independence from the U.K. the initial shock-waves in my opinion that will hit the markets will be akin to the video we’ve all seen 1000 times when a nuclear device is unleashed with a house being obliterated. Or, the one where trees are bent over near flat to then reverse back the same.

In my humble opinion this could be a metaphor of what could take place. The reason is simple: By proof of the markets as they stand today, it is proof prima facie that everyone (especially so-called “smart crowd”) thinks it won’t happen. And the odds via polling alone show it to be the equivalent of a coin toss!

If this happens it will also confirm something just as real, and quite possibly far more instructive: With both a Federal Reserve meeting being held just days prior to such an event, the language out of this meeting could not be more important.

If it’s some revised boilerplate “till conditions improve, extended period, blah, blah, blah” based press release and conference, it will again confirm what many believed from the start, The Fed is both deaf, blind, and ill prepared to handle what might be an event such as this. An event that has the potential to make the crisis of 2008 the equivalent of a firecracker as opposed to what might be unleashed if Scotland does indeed secede.

The ramifications are truly unknown, unquantifiable, and what might be worse – unmanageable.

Then we move to crisis.

Just how does the Federal Reserve handle such a dilemma of this scale? I use the word “scale” for good reason. As many may know the Forex markets dwarf what the lovingly referred to as “mom and pop investor” believe it to be.

The saving of the “stock market” (aka the Equity Markets) in 2008 vs a Forex market crisis is the equivalent of bailing out a local bingo hall as compared to dealing with such a crisis on the scale of Las Vegas casino.

If the Forex market suddenly gets rocked with a clear fundamental breakdown and breakup of everything now known as the E.U. Along with all the tentacle entangled carry trades? Crisis might be an understatement.

Contagion across the Forex exchanges will not only wreak havoc from within it will also spread directly to the Bond markets. (which many don’t realize is also considerably larger themselves than the equity markets)

Such sweeping turmoil will most assuredly plunge the equity markets themselves into complete and utter chaos as money managers, market makers, margin executives and more decree: “Sell Everything, Close Everything, Now!”

What chaos might also be unleashed as the High Frequency Trading (HFT) algos are set loose selling anything and everything into a market where it’s suddenly revealed via news reading computers that the jig is up?

Or, what no one (and I mean no one!) thought possible till this week. What if this was the week HFT decides to not skirt the laws, but to now – obey them?! i.e., CME Rule 575 as explained by ZeroHedge: These Kinds Of Market-Rigging “Practices” Will No Longer Be Allowed On The CME

This could make the current Ebola crisis and concerns about the speed and severity of contagion look like the sniffles in a kindergarten class.

The panic, fear, mistrust, alienation, ___________(fill in the blank) that holders of what once believed were liquid assets on their books will find out rather quickly nothing runs quicker down the drain than paper gains and wealth.

If all this plays out, what will follow will be a blow to the IPO market and all it has morphed into these last few years with “free money.” So much so that one will think they actually saw Thor’s Hammer. Alibaba™ stands to be “the” poster child for top ticking headlines like never before.

Friday their stock hits the market in what has been touted as one of the most sought after and highly demanded offerings. So much so that they were able to wrap their road show early.

All this in an era of low if not non-existent GDP figures of recent memory. Along with real unemployment, and other metrics screaming recession, however these are adjusted, tweaked or adulterated so much so – it would make a vocal harmonizer jealous.

If Alibaba finds itself trying to release an IPO in this potential melee it will have ramification not only for its own offering, but for every single current high flyer in the markets from now until who knows when. The issue is not just if this happens, but what happens for everything else -if?

A catastrophe is quite possibly in the making. But it is still all in the hands of nothing more than the odds in a flip of a coin. We’ll know more Thursday when Scotland votes. Until then what we truly know is less about what if, and more about – if not.

However we do know a couple of things today that we didn’t know just 5 years ago.

First is, we understand the markets are not what people think they are. Second, the Fed is not as omnipotent as most believe. Third, 70% to 80% of what the “mom and pop” 401K holders think are trades in the markets, is an illusion. Fourth: Everyone, including many of the very professionals that work and breathe Wall Street have learned absolutely nothing since the Lehman crisis.

And what’s maybe more important than all of those combined?

They believe the chances of it repeating are not only nil, they’re betting it wont. Besides they still believe: “The Fed’s got their back!”

Problem is – will the Fed be able to save its own rear end if it does happen? Let alone theirs.

We’ll know soon enough.

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Dungholio's picture

What about "cunt" as in mr yellen is a cunt?  You left out cunt.

macholatte's picture

 

 

However we do know a couple of things today that we didn’t know just 5 years ago.


First is not to waste your time reading redundant articles like this one.

BuddyEffed's picture

They somehow missed Contraction.

Shad_ow's picture

C orruption has already changed the system.....forever.

StandardDeviant's picture

Well put.  That was fairly Content-free.

junction's picture

Congolese Ebola fits the C for contagion.

pods's picture

5: Conflagration.  As in financial conflagration.

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. What about "CANCER" as in Americans are a festering bunch of "CANCEROUS" war mongers.

Has a nice ring to it.

IridiumRebel's picture

"as in American NEOCONS are a festering bunch of "CANCEROUS" war mongers."

 

Americans are by and large very giving and good -sometimes stupid- but good. Our "leaders" (read installed evil fucks) are rather different. 

somecallmetimmah's picture

Vote for Badaka-Danga!
Strange we kan deceive in!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Cancer implies the patient isn't dead.  Sorry, you are dealing with a cadaver.

balanced's picture

Sounds like you've been believing the mainstream propaganda. Don't confuse a country's government with it's people.

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. It's not only me my friend. And we believe the "TRUTH" when we see it.

How the "FUCK" could you have the fight bred right out of you in only 200 years.

Pathetic or "WAR MONGERS"?

hobopants's picture

Listen! I'm pretty sure that if Dell tech support finds out you are goofing off at work they are going to make you eat a hamburger made from a holy cow as punishment.

Please go back to pissing off technologically challenged old people with your accent and stop polluting the comment section.

El Vaquero's picture

It took years and years of abuse before the American Revolution went hot, and even then, only about 1/3 of the population supported it.  Furthermore, I don't think you understand what a revolution would do here.  It is very likely that many millions would starve to death.  We'll revolt when we have no other choice. 

ZerOhead's picture

6: Collapse. (With or without the use of thermite...)

ZerOhead's picture

7: Clean-up.

As in lots of highly connected individuals are going to clean-up in the collapse...

falconflight's picture

And on a certain level, I just don't care anymore.  We've made significant preparations, and if no one comes to eat us, we can hang tough for several months.

LawsofPhysics's picture

6. Confiscation (bail-in bitchez....)

ZerOhead's picture

Forgot that one.

It'll be going on during the collapse portion of the event so no-one notices...

LongMarch's picture

Meh, I'm not worried. After all, they have Control. What could possibly go wrong?

ZerOhead's picture

I'm still hoping they have a brilliant plan that fixes everything.

It's along shot but it's all we got...

 

LongMarch's picture

 Perhaps you meant"they have a brilliant plan that fixes everything for them."

But you're right; we've seem too have run out off short easy shots some time ago.

Bell's 2 hearted's picture

the world shrugged off cyprus ... and it has better weather

Toolshed's picture

As far as the Scottish independence vote is concerned, I have only 1 question...........Who is counting the votes?

Brutlstrudl's picture

"It's not the man who votes that counts. it's the man who counts the votes that counts" Josef Stalin

rejected's picture

Done very securely with the latest windows 8 app.

firewire888's picture

Do people really believe they will let this happen?  relief rally, new highs is about 80/20 odds to me.

One of We's picture

cutting edge

cordage

container

cover

WSP's picture

Excellent point that a Yes vote in Scotland would rock the markets---that is PRECISELY WHY THE VOTE WILL BE RIGGED "NO"----the crime syndicate will NEVER let a "Yes" vote go through------no point in even having the vote----trust me----the crime syndicate rigs all "important" votes and this one will be no different.   Buy calls on the S&P on margin and relax-----the market will never go down again.

False Capital's picture

If not directly rigged then they are at least rigged through the propaganda of the bought-and-paid-for legacy media. The constant flow of "Scotland will be doomed" articles is enough to cower most of the sheeple.

StandardDeviant's picture

Oh, cut it out.  Whether your point's a good one or not, "sheeple" just makes you sound like a nutjob.

Cruel Aid's picture

I didn't consider that for some reason. You may be right, I'll bet gov officials on both sides are against it. leaning towards a no vote now.

But not sure it means an end to the euro as England is no powerhouse of production.

ebworthen's picture

Constipation, Concupiscence, Chrysalis, Cataclysm

 

Constipation:  the EU must be held together!

Concupiscence:  the FED has a lust for the banksters, corporations, and equity markets pursued via the public credit card.

Chrysalis:  the butterfly of free markets and sound money is forming within the cocoon of this ugly caterpillar insanity.

Cataclysm:  when the house of cards debt ponzi collapses it will bring calamity, convulsions, and contortions to every aspect of life, and the clamoring for hangings.

rejected's picture

Seems like they're playing monoploy with themselves and each has his own bank.

WesternFront's picture

Creditdefaultswaps

q99x2's picture

4 C's and a B

BitCoin Last Price somewhere around $460

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Castration, which is how you turn Dicks into Cunts...
Fuck those Cunts!

crazybob369's picture

I thought the 4C's were Janet Yellen, Christine Lagarde, Nancy Pelosi, Victoria Nuland. Sorry, wrong kind of C's.

gwar5's picture

Jeebus, you beat me to it Bob....

 

I logged on just to say my pick for the four C's of the apocalips (sic) are Yellen, Hillary, Pelosi and Feinstein.

crazybob369's picture

When you have that many C's running around, it's hard to pick just four.

gswifty's picture

This non-event is perfectly positioned to be a bullish-boon-to-the-moon. Watch the no vote go through and everything will be better than well. The what-if's will be holding nothing but their dicks. Opportunity for reform missed, and catastrophe averted. The fix is in.

BouncyTheWonderbunni's picture

Scuse me? How can a bunch of drunks wearing skirts voting possibly cause worldwide catastrophe?