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The "Dots" Chart - Then And Now
Perhaps the one most important, if completely meaningless chart (because it will as usual revised countless times in the next year and the final outcome will be anything but what the Fed is predicting) that everyone was looking for in today's FOMC forecast materials, is the so-called "dots" - the Fed's estimates of where the Fed Fund's rate will be at the end of 2016.
The big picture: while there is increasing clustering in the 2-2.5% region, the lower and higher forecasts actually went down, while the upper range of the Fed Funds rate forecast chart for 2016 was reduced from 6% to 5%.
In other words, when forecasting inflation, growth and the Fed Funds rate, the Fed will need a smaller chart.
And yet, while everything will surely change, one thing is certain: the one "dot" sliding ever lower has a name: Kocherladota.
Of note: while the chaos in the 2016 dots was clear, the 2015 "dots" actually rose from a median estimate of 1.125% in June to 1.375% in September.
And while the dots chart was a snoozer this time around, it was the "Number of participants that saw a rate hike in 2015" that got the most attention today, rising from 12 in June to 14 as of the most recent meeting, with only 2 now expecting a rate hike in 2016.
June:
and September:
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That looks like my underwear after I ate some 4 bean soup!
Add a big fat golden dot for the gold market.
It is going to set interest rates higher and it will force the chatterbox FOMC's hand.
Need MOAR ... dots!!!!
How on earth these imbeciles have any credibility is beyond me
Minnesota has one of the largest iron ore deposits on Earth. It also has one of the largest inland ports in the world (in not the largest) and a long shoreline next to the largest body of freshwater on earth.
They ain't got no "prices crisis." You can create infinity food in Minnesota.
And infinity electricity.
Huh? I work in that port. Check your facts buddy.
According to a gov report I read several years back, roughly 50% of Lake Superior's watershed is the lake itself. The amount of rain that falls in that area is roughly equal to the amount of water that is lost to evaporation. Drain the lake, and it would take over 900 years to refill to what is considered "normal." (The report was generated due to Cali wanting a water pipeline built to suck water from Lake Superior--guess what, didn't happen, as it would have destroyed the lake.)
And let me correct that for you:
"Minnesota had one of the largest iron ore deposits on Earth."
They ran out of "the good stuff" (the red ore) somewhere in the mid-to-late 50s. Granted there is a company (Magnetation) who are going thru the old "overburdon" and are managing to extract more iron. But the USA blew the Iron Range "cum shot" of iron on WWI / WWII. We're essentially down to fracking (to compare it to the US Oil industry).
WTF
I'm so confused, even more than before.
I want my 37 seconds back.
Listen. "Kocherladota" is "RAYCIST"!
So whose the one dot that thinks rates will go up in 2014??? and why?
Orwell would have a field day with the nonsense served up by the Fed/FOMC. Meanwhile, centrally planned financial repression continues.
Rates are going nowhere.
Liquidity "slosh" factor needs to be quantified. Much of the "slosh" is hidden though.
and if you connect those dots ala dot to dot.......you get a nice crack pipe!!