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The Fed's Laughable GDP "Forecast" Just Got Even Funnier
What in January 2012 was a 2014 GDP forecast range of 3.7%-4.0% collapsed to 2.1%-2.3% in June (because clearly the Fed couldn't possibly forecast snow in the winter), and three months later is now 2.0%-2.2%. In short, a 43% forecasting error.
That is all.
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I predict the weather forecast will continue to call for sunny skies.
GDP? Prime the laser jets! Upgrade the EPSON! We got a lot of linen to print.
Post-FOMC SLV / GLD explosion?
What iceberg?
All that matters is that The Federal Reserve Bank gets to keep the franchise for creating money from thin air. Period.
The banks do, however, very much appreciate that we have given them the authority to self regulate, too.
Don't you Americans remember your government re-upping the 99-Year Franchise Agreement that was supposed to expire last year?
Woodrow, "wooden head" Wilson; one of our worst Presidents ever. Thanks for nothing piss for brains.
Fuck the FED. If they aren't professional liars, then they are incompetent fucks. Take yer pick - and then know that these are the losers controlling your wealth.
Sickens the shit outta me.
END THE CORRUPT FED - NOW
END THE PRIVATE FIRM OF BANKERS, CALLED THE FED, WHO CONTROL THE GLOBAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND INVOKE SANCTIONS AGAINST OTHER COUNTRIES WHO DON'T WISH TO SUCK FED BALLS.
Took him a few years to figure out he was snookered? Now that is a binge.......
Dope
Check this out,
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/218047-house-passes-bill-to-...
Will it get any traction in the Senate? Methinks not...
DaddyO
You kidding? The Criminal Pure Evil Megalomanic's over at the NSA / CIA / ISREAL are all over this like a fly on shit. Let the Threatening & Blackmailing of the Senate commence.
One can hope, eh?
Spines are in short supply in Vichy DC.
DaddyO
And ZH will continue to tell us that everything is stupid and that they told you so. Oh, and the "double quotes". Always with the "double quotes"
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
YOU MOOK!
Love the site for giving consistent "bear" commentary, but yes the Fed has been pretty clear on exit, quality of jobs and inflation monitoring. Since the fed GDP is using lagging data, nobody should be shocked in the dots or curve changes as they are using mostly public data which is forcasted on 10 week laggards.
Fuck, you would have to be totally retail, or disconnected from trade data (impossible if you are a daily ZH tracker) to not do your own AK projections.
To address the uncertainty, ironically, many Fed's read leading indicators of policy (hi Dallas/Salt Lake) and dissention on blogs or in flash reports. Also, it is important to note that the dissention was related to timing and not the Quality or Context on when a rate hike will happen. They have also been consistent on this message and the outcomes which will change how those annon. dissentions will vote at going into 2016.
Hey Rat, everytime you hear some talking head on tv tell you about the robust economy based on rising stock prices, please slam your face into a brick wall, for being as gullible and stupid as a box of rocks! Because you've been sucked into the most ridiculous of arguments. "The Fed can't raise rates or stop QE because the DATA is too soft", BUT (from the other side of their mouths), the economy is in a solid recovery and everything is moving in the right direction. You defend double speak at the expense of your country's future...You POS!
Don't pick on Rile Vat, he only answered a craigslist ad seeking Experienced Trolls
He figured he could learn a new trade.
Somebody forced you to read this blog? If you don't like it, Feck off; "how's that", in double quotes.
Well, if you would actually think about those "quotes"
You would also remember that the way GDP is calculated has been changed a bit more than a year ago to push these numbers up.
So these quotes remind everybody that whatever number they give you is way above the actual numbers that would be seriously red if we kept using economic indicators pre 2000.
And>>>> it's gone.
Who really gives a shit? Really, the spew is so pronounced that it is safest to have a beer for every bullshit line. Atleast your buzz is real, and don't feel too half bad. Some needs to write a book of the new propaganda rules in play. Google should have them as a disclaimer by now.
A 'forecast' with a margin of error that wide cannot be called a forecast!
Anything can be "called" anything. The Korean War "can" be called a "Police Action". The GDP "increase" can be be called an increase, even though it's less than inflation. Personally, I would just "call" their forcasts "propaganda" and let it go at that.
..."Barry" can be called a "President", Yellen an "economic she guru", "Michelle" a "woman"...
John Kerry a horse,you forgot one.
Listen. How can anyone in the USSA be productive with all the "HYPNOTIC" videos that ISIL is releasing.
It's "NOT" fair!
it's ISIS.... remember they practice the time honored mussy tradition of beheading.... just like in saudi!
Listen. It's ISIL or ISIS for the American trailer park residents.
Now, let me make myself clear. The beheading videos were "NON-ISIL" videos produced by coalition forces to dissuade men from joining ISIL "AND" to dissuade "INDEPENDENT" arm-chair reporters from entering the "THEATER" and posting on live-leak or youtube. {control the message}.
The recruitment statistics are "THAT" alarming to "COALITION" forces. They are "THAT" afraid of "THE AWAKENING", yes they will kill their own to instill fear.
"NEVER FORGET", remember that? USSA? #1 in savagery.
As opposed to the time honoured civilised method of hanging, lethal injection or electric chair?
Spy 2500 hats for sale now
"a 43% forecasting error" Close enough for government work by a private contractor.
dont worry. the final numbers will be close to a 70% forecasting error. afterall, winter will be here when there are still 10 days left in the year to not account for.
".....a 43% forecasting error."
I'm glad those people didn't engineer the bridges I drive over or the planes I fly. "Yes sir, we had intended on landing in Los Angeles but instead we landed in Minneapolis"
Fed has got nothing to do with GDP and never did.
The only issue right now is derivatives, nothing more and nothing less, until Saudis halt oil shipments and bullets go through heads on wall street and city of london
DXY is on a tear. Yields shooting higher.
Have Saudis already given notice of halting oil supplies?
I'd say: YES
Why doesn't she just be brutally honest?
If your net worth is 1M or greater, you get a graduated amount of lube.
HOWEVER, If your net worth is <1M, you gets no lube.
We all know the FED forcast are BS, I mean they missed the housing bubble.
Aye; but it's much worse than that, isn't it ? DURING the bloody housing collapse, Dr. Bernanke, an expert from Princeton, who learned more and more about less and less until he knew everything about nothing, said, "The Sub-Prime problem won't expand out into the real economy". Nice going, "doctor".
All they know is the exact "profits" of their owners and the TBTFs. All else is noise.
I was going say, I bet there are a few numbers they get right, in particular the net private profits gained from their monopoly money printing business the run, would be one!
Missed it by that much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw
Classic!
The country would save some good money by replacing the Fed with an HP deskjet. Who needs their bad projections, BS and their inability to see the bubbles they create?
Think about it: Their "printing," theft, is at the root of it all, yet they can't accurately forecast the ramifications of their theft on the economy--or don't want to.
An American, not US subject.
"Guillotine the Fed!"
They just omitted their error estimates: +- 12.7 %
laughable Fed? How about laughable ZH? What's the use of a website that continually bashes the Fed and our financial markets, if they can't provide 1 profit generating bit of advice?
There is no profit to be had .... except buying equities .... and that will make you money until all of a sudden it evaporates and vaporizes your net worth.
start a business that generates something other than numbers.
as opposed to singing the fed's praises for what exactly? If you like fairytales and people pissing on you and telling you its raining, go over to MarketWatch & Bloomberg.
I do! I do!
I think I am going to make a website called "Unicorns and Golden Showers" and see how many Keynesians show up.
The FED is directly linked to all of that is wrong in the world today, period! Anybody defending Central Banking is either a paid troll or the dumbest human alive.
Central Banking? Did someone mention Central Banking? Is this the Rough Beast to which you allude?
Marx’s First Law of Central Banking (Creative Inertia):
A Central Bank will maintain its state of Apparent Solvency unless acted upon by an External Audit.
Marx’s Second Law of Central Banking (Implosive Acceleration):
The structural resilience of the Bubble of Faith is directly proportional to the Incredulity of the Masses.
Marx’s Third Law of Central Banking (Elasticity of Veracity):
Every action has an equal and opposite retraction.
Buy, sell higher. Should not be hard right now.
OK?
Get Prepared for BIG CHANGE as the people awaken from their stupor.
Profitable advice for ya.
Well at least audit the fed passed the house by a huge margin. Not that it matters.
As if the Fed cares about forecasting errors.
Wheels haven't fallen off today? Well, that's 100% manipulation success!
Yeah, that sums it up pretty well, I think; "hey, we made it through another day"; "way to go, team".
2015 will be a winner for sure though...
... you only have to fool enough of the people enough of the time. At that, the Fed is an undeniable master.
Waste time yapping as none of them have a clue what to do besides print baby print!
Chirp...Zirp....Nirp...
We must find a kid in High School named Phineas T. Barnum, take him under our wing, put him through college with an economics degree and move him up the Fed ranks to Chairman. Sort of a Fed sleeper cell...then when we get these stone tablets from the mountain, they can start with "PT Barnum indicates...." so much more appropriate.
Where's the discussion on why these "opinions" that drive Fed Policy have been so damn wrong from Yellen?
we forecast that things will be good or bad, give or take a possible catastrophe or europhoria.
Ron Paul had been warning Congress for years about this as everyone knows.What the general public doesn't understand is that monetary policy authority has been handed over to a private syndicate of bankers.The legislation that gave The Fed that kind of power has now become a National Security issue which is not just a danger to The Dollar but to the economic security of the Country.Banks have almost destroyed the United States and actually brought it to its' knees.It was only a few hours away from financial disaster when The President and top Officials woke up and were warned of the impending crisis at hand.What I believe is happening behind the scenes myself is The NSA has gotten wind of how vulnerable The United States is to economic warfare.Even from within.That's the National Security threat that I see.Just like James Rickards says "nobody on the globe can touch the US military in size and strength but now The CIA knows of the economic dangers".However there is a very big economic danger that is related to how the Government is influenced.It's called a thousand military bases and the ongoing cost of war.What will be the economic result?How much more fiat paper must be printed to back war?And what will society look like because of endless war in the future?Will there just be more Detroits?It doesn't have to end up like Rome you know.
The elites have accomplished for themselves FAR more through the Federal Reserve then they possibly could ever have through control of congress, the presidency, the courts, or even the military.
When you can engineer such a massive looting of national wealth and concentrating it among yourself using the Federal Reserve, who cares about tax policy, social welfare cutbacks, fiscal policy, national budgets, party politics, NONE of it matters when you can print trillions and give them to yourself and your friends.
The Federal Reserve is nothing less than the tool that has allowed the near total takeover of America by banking and various inner circle corporatist interests. We have lost our democracy and soon will lose our freedoms, those that still remain ...
bitcoin 450. lol. stankier than that other scam you know as gold.
If their forecasts are shit, their guidance is shit. Regardless, they aren't raising rates. They'll fudge the economic numbers lower and say conditions have changed and our forward guidance is based on conditions.
There forcast is not incorrect, just the number they publish for public consumption is incorrect.
Any one suprised?
Really? Hello.........
I stand by this one conviction, this isnt a recession, its a fucking outright robbery.
Cunts
;-)
Oops!
OMG!!
Yet another golden disaster today!!!!!
First half was at about ZERO percent (might have been +0.1%) so to hit 2% for 2014 Q3 and Q4 need to be 4% to average out.
Ain't happening. 1.3% for 2014 tops, and even that is likely high.
The financial repression will continue until morale improves
Bong hits all around! All is well when dishonest accountants will give you any numbers you need for any purpose.
Off topic but damn...the asian women in those ads have skin that looks so soft and smooth. I'll be back in 6 minutes...
This shit is so stupid. Just admit it's over.
In a perverse turn of events, the pole dancer Yellen is making it rain....dollars!
Sorry ZH. You can't divide a percent by a percent to get a variance. It doesn't work that way.
I would say 2% forecasting error is not bad for economic forecasts. I don't recall ZH posting your forecasts, but of course you don't believe the official data, so you wouldn't admit an error anyway. In addition it's odd how on the one hand ZH claims the data is all faked and is whatever the Fed wants it to be, and then mocks them for coming in below their original estimate. If they were really just pulling numbers out of their asses, why bother revising the forecast?
Every year for the last 5 years it was green shoots and 4% GDP.
Every year for the last 5 years the forecasts have been lowered to 2% whatever.
They revise them lower - later - because then no one notices.
Like you.
Federal Reserve of Chicago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_Chicago#mediaviewer...
Federal Reserve of Dallas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_Dallas#mediaviewer/...
did you ever wonder what all those fuckers do in those buildings all day? forecasting? porn?
Who is more full of bull excrement?
The ratings agencies or the FED itself?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/29/antarctica-sets-new-record-for-sea...
All the Southwestern states are going to get saturated, how will they funnel that excess water to California? Why did the desert receive water and overlook Green lefty controlled Kalifornia?
Keep fucking with mother nature, California. Invisible water vapor returns to the atomphere and creates rain. Climate change is the laughing stock of entire global community.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AG_tKT0xLJE
Hiliariously banks are still telling their potential investors that bonds are great, a safe haven, even corporate bonds, and that GDP should (and already is) be over 3%.
Utter nonsense...