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FOMC Keeps "Considerable" Wealth Effect Dream Alive, More See First Hike In 2015; Two Dissent - Full Statement Comparison
Perhaps not surprisingly - following Hilsenrath's 'leak' - the FOMC has decided to keep the "considerable time" language alive-and-well in its latest statement, supporting the uber-dovishness rate guidance as QE is tapered as expected:
- *FED TO END QE PROGRAM AT NEXT MEETING IF OUTLOOK HOLDS, RELEASES EXIT STRATEGY GUIDELINES
- *FED WILL USE IOER RATE TO MOVE FED FUNDS INTO TARGET RANGE
- *FED TO USE OVERNIGHT-REVERSE REPO `AS NEEDED' IN EXIT
- *FIRST RATE RISE SEEN IN 2015 BY 14 FED OFFICIALS VS 12 IN JUNE
- *FED KEEPS 'CONSIDERABLE TIME' PLEDGE FOR LOW RATES POST-QE
- *FED SEES MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE AT 1.375% AT END OF 2015
- *FED SAYS TIMING OF REINVESTMENT PHASE-OUT IS ECONOMY-DEPENDENT
- *FED SAYS INFLATION `RUNNING BELOW' FOMC'S LONG-RUN GOAL
- *FED REPEATS SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION IN LABOR MARKETS
- *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE, LABOR MKT IMPROVED
- *FISHER, PLOSSER DISSENT ON FOMC VOTE ON FORWARD GUIDANCE
Record high stocks, record low corp yields, surging GDP, PMIs soaring, housing and consumer sentiment exuberant, jobless claims at lows, JOLTS at highs, and the Apple iPhone 6 - if that doesn't draw Yellen to the middle, we don't know what will... but we are sure she'll explain in the press conference. Full redline below...
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1992.00, 10Y 2.56%, Gold $1235, WTI $94.20, USDJPY 107.50
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Check out Gold's reaction.
Live Gold: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
The algos are doing their usual dance, creating whipsaws, confusing amateur
traders, plundering stops, etc. The day everything blows up is the day the
algos get permanently unplugged. I fear that only the algos will be blamed, and
not the bankers that commissioned them to begin with.
Oh Yeah, Silver is doing it's thing too.
Live Silver: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
Even more wild than gold. Is that because silver is / can be more easily
manipulated than gold, or because silver, as some would have us believe, is the
achiles heel of the bankers. Can someone explain that?
Soylent Green is People!
Markets pump, then dump on the release.
BTW, what's up with BitCoin?... taking a dump...
I wish it happened in 2014
Edit: Ok. Tyler fixed it.
Lying and QE are like Heroin except even more addictive and harder to quit.
It doesn't mean shit what they say now.
They'll do what ever the fuck they want to anyway.
Treasury yields spiking higher now show this clearly:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_YEAR/charts?ma=1&maval=50&u...
Yes, it does matter what they say, since they are the holders of collateral and are going to now have a bit more headspace due to the tapering should we see a systemic "black swan" out of Scotland.
"They" are just "those" who were thinking this through, and you have nobody to blame but yourself if You did not get on the right side of this trade today. Ironic, since Fight Club is all about personal liberty and accountability, unless it comes to the bond markets. Or currency markets. Or gold markets. Or oil markets.... etc etc.
Middle of the curve is good value at this stage, as is any market location where is growth against a stagflating China (or depressionary) european (small "E" sic) and Japanese pension duration mismatch.
Everyone will cry on "Fed intervention" until they get a taste of PBOC or Super Mario's ham handed attempts and/or gold market going lock-down on a deflationary spiral with physical collateral calls leading to broker closure. Chew on that next time you feel the urge to spout how "they" are against "you".
Chew on shit and die you mook!
Well Rat you dumbass since the Fed is the fucking idiots who blew the tech and housing bubbles why the fuck would I pay any attention to what they say,they obviously don't know what they're doing.
The Fed will not exist in 2015.....
yep pm's down, dollar up, stocks up, just cause the central banksters aren't swinging from lightposts yet.
that's reason enough
how did hilsenrat get the advance copy? that guy is good
QE Forever Bitches.....its just the way it will be.
Janet Yellen will continue to be an ugly kike, for a considerable time ...
Translation: stealth QE
It will be interesting how they explain the 2% interest rates once they end QE. Audit the FED
Good comment
Yep, there are only 2 ways that US Bonds are bought at levels needed to maintain 2% interest... Either deliberately shock the system to panic bidders into a "flight to quality", or use off-book CB proxies like Belgium. Currency wars are getting serious. My guess is what you say... stealth QE.... until some unexpected event gives them the cover to shock the system and take down some players. When sociopaths start going after each other, watch out for the collateral damage.
Annnd gold drops like a rock...always a great time to dump paper on the market
edit: now its just gettin weird
Tapering is a lie. Covert monetization is ongoing.
convert? not so much anymore...
Inflation running below their expectaions? If that statement doesn't get people into PM's nothing will.
"Substitution effect." (Just starve the people basically. "All in the name of fighting a war" no less.). Still...how do I "substitute" the debt again Federal Reserve people?
I mean...if all economies are monetizing their debt now...
IF OUTLOOK HOLDS
Holds what? It's two hands holding piles of shit right now.
Fischer dissented. Interesting.
It was his turn this week..............
Fischer voted for; Fisher voted against.
let me guess, the guy from bank of Israel voted YES, and the good ole boy / token crypto-jew voted no? hard to keep track of these lizards...
They have no choice. It's either bankrupt the world or extend and pretend.
No.
It's either bankrupt the world or bankrupt the Feral Reserve System now
Gee, which one do you think they'll go with!!??
Bankrupting the FED bankrupts the owner / member banks. We cannot have our owner / member bunkrupted
LOL... so just another false "rate hike" alarm to shake out more weak hands and keep the "skim" or churn going for another day...
< sigh >
as we roll the guillotine back into the garage...
Skim Churn!!!! Our newest gormet ice cream flavor is available now at..........................
Disgusting that the Wall Street sheep follow Janet Yellen as fervently as the Main Street sheep follow Kim Kardashian.
yup... but KK has the considerably better arse!!!
Everything is great...but they still keep the stimilus going strong....something is wrong with this idea....if its good ..you go back to normal..if its not...you keep the stimilus...liars....
Telling a lie requires more words than telling the truth.
We all new and we all know they can never stop QE.
talk about a fucking flash crash. the s&p went down a full .3 % in like 3 mintues and then regained half in a mintue. ridiculous. rise of the machines.
the only thing stopping a real melt up or crash down is circuit breakers.
though..melt up is possible. 2 mayr 3 or even 5% up in one day. it's possible....
Reverse repos...currency swaps...etc.
layers and layers of it building up since Sept. '08
So it's SELL gold, BUY stocks, buy paper dollars...
WHAT a surprise.
Hello Belgium? Can you spare a brother a trillion?
"Wealth Effect" they never give up on this slight of hand economic trick to fake real economic growth. Money for nothing! They believe that wealth comes from asset inflation driven by money printing, not capital growth, investment, expansion and wage growth driven demand! Fucking idiot central banker cunts!
Who the fuck needs more QE when the cops can now probably discern how much cash and "PM" you have in your vehicle with cover as a traffic violation that becomes "legitimate" confiscation?...
Hell the technology may even be so good one day they won't have to enforce bail-ins.
Keep the "powder dry" people!
My car is such a piece of junk they won't bother to aim their silver detector at it. I can drive the mean streets of the ghetto after midnight with absolute impunity. Nobody, but nobody with any dough would drive such an eyesore. Damn, I luv that '93 Merc.
I can drive the mean streets of the ghetto after midnight with absolute impunity. Nobody, but nobody with any dough would drive such an eyesore. Damn, I luv that '93 Merc.
Before there was OnStar GPS... Don't forget to line some lead under the dashboard and firewall as an added precaution!
Smart man!
This is really going to get good. The Fed is now committed to ending QE and raising interest rates. They may truly believe their own bullshit and that everything is fine, that there is a recovery, that the low volatility high plateau is here to stay. They are about to fuck with the very scheme that has served them. Now I wonder what the rate increases will be? To 0.5% or 1%, hell, rock it up to 5% and see what happens. That will drive everybody out of stocks and into treasuries. Obviously that must be the thinking. The Fed can sell off the treasuries it's sitting on and reduce their balance sheet. However, nobody is going to buy that mortgage junk they own.
How will the US Government deal with the interest on the debt under rising rates? Geez....a strong dollar will work against them.
I suppose we'll have to watch for new QE that isn't called QE.
One just has to question why they are telegraphing "it's time to get out of stocks"....and right before the November elections....
They DO believe their own bullshit. They are central planners: they are "data-drive". They love charts, graphs, lines, statistics, surveys, etimates, gudelines, citations, quotations, authorities' opinions, "expert assessments", models, diagrams...just about anything empiricaal and measurable.
But one thing the Fed never does is walk down any Main Street with their eyes open, talking to people.
And they never, never, never question the premise that government meddling in the markets can "improve" them.
So...everything probably DOES look rosy to them..
You left out acedemic studies and theory.
Exactly. They were denying a housing bubble even while it was bursting.
S&P to 2000 by Turkey Day....QE will never never never stop. This is the FED's pet, the market.
What!! SP to 2000 by Thursday ... tomorrow ... maybe today
Sooooooooooo
How is the CENTRALLY COMMANDED VIDEO GAME commonly called 'financial market' playing out right now?
Expect diminishing, then negative returns. Morons at the wheel, God help us all, we are in Hell.
Centrally planned and centrally controlled.
The first couple years Big Ben tried to avoid this being the perception, but now it's accepted and expected.
fading inflation = no int. rate increase anytime soon = higher PEs = ZH's past 150 articles a big waste of reader's times (yet again).
OT: What does the put/call option market look like going into the Scots referendum?
ZIRP is QE
Liftoff will happen
Wow. Did everyone read that? Freakin' awesome! Everything is better now and they won't be "printing" any more money! Everyone needs to just chill and bask in the great job the fed did in navigating us through this economic rough patch that we all caused ourselves for being greedy, Malthusian, useless eaters! Woo hoo! Thanks Fed! I'm going out for a Big Mac and a 24 oz GMO, high fructose corn syrup and fluoridated waste water soda to celebrate!
Dont forget to buy your new chevy camaro (subprimed of course).
For sure. But I'm dropping by Walgreens for my free flu shot first.
""Considerable" Wealth Effect Dream Alive,"
Wealth not created
transferred from those a few rungs lower
The FED will not raise rates com 2015, just a buch of more bullshit lies. They have backed themselves into a corner. US = JAPAN. Do the same thing and expecting different results it WHAT? INSANITY.....
Japan first, then the US.
We get a preview of how the US ends up. The Federal Reserve's grand print to infinity PhD experiment.
It's why Benanke told his son to borrow $400,000 plus in student loans.
And Sony equals Apple...both will die off...we are all scrambling to try to buy Alibaba stock.....its not even stock..its a piece of paper in an offshore haven...the skinny little Chinese guy still owns the company even after we have given him 200 billion dollars...what a scam this IPO is....we are such idiots...but the fast buck guys will get theirs first...and all the fees...Goldman Sucks will make billions....its so good to be a New York Boy...
The Fed won't raise rates until the US dollar crashed it's forced to try and protect it.
So years and years of Fed printing and devaluing. It's stuck doing it until all faith is lost in the currency, backed by nothing.
Fed's backup plan is the IMF SDRs.
This is an off to the races statement, especially into the end of the quarter. Those who said 2200 are likely to be right...in October
What the fuck else did anyone expect them to say with an election around the corner. There will be no purposeful boat rocking on the financial front that might influence the elections unless it serves the owners interests to do so like an auditing of their books actually passing in both houses of Congress.
Their hand will be forced when the comex defaults - price realisation for PM's will reveal the true descent if fiat currencies.
"Their hand will be forced when the comex defaults - price realization for PM's will reveal the true descent if fiat currencies."
Exactly. The BRICS need to force the COMEX to reveal the PMs are subscribed over 70 ounces to one real.whoever owns all those silver options can do it right now..all they have to do is ask for delivery....
“The world is ruled by an economic dictatorship ruled by the powers that control the money and credit of nations.” --Pope Pius XI in his 1932 encyclical
Who could have guessed that when savers and retirees took out their retirement programs that the Fed and Congress had them in mind to take their money? The stealing of wealth from the middle class by the banks to give to the banks is sinister.
The Fed deliberately targeted savers and retirees to refresh their insolvent banks, to rape them, take their money and hope for the best.
When the banks targeted retirees and savers and small businesses, they targeted the people who could have put those savings back into the economy and helped it grow.
Had savers known they were a deliberate target, they never would have exchanged their labors for worthless Fed paper. Nor would they have stored their saved labors in worthless FRNs.
The Fed bankers know no self-restraint; they have completely destroyed the value of the dollar using run-away QE and ZIRP – overprinting to get something for nothing for themselves with QE, while rendering worthless the return on earned money, i.e., savings, with ZIRP. It is currency debasement to the extreme.
And now, still trying to save themselves, the bankers are moving on by targeting everybody else. The situation with the small stocks and small companies is a crime. And so much of the stocks of these companies that are in bear territory, down 24 percent and some 50 percent, are owned by small 401(K)s and many institutional investors.
How can the 1% thrive while the 99% is failing? It can't. Only through theft or illusion.
Debasement of the currency now is so out of sync with the physical needs of the economy’s capacity to produce useful and needed products that it has driven America’s economy into disaster territory.
It is not only the sin of a century; it is likely to be the sin that ends the history of the West.
Quasimodo Economics of Questionable Excrement coming from Ms. Debtfire.
It's a race to the bottom as other nations offer negative rates.
No one is going to be allowed to acknowledge the truth.
Relate this type of market timing to what's going on right now.Mark Twain was a pretty smart guy.Let's see if nature rhymes again for Gold this November like David Gurwitz says over at Charles Nenner Research.I see the timing and the relationships to a lot of big news that Tyler is posting.The key news event still centering around the Ukraine is the rearming of the Ukrainian Government by NATO with the latest sophisticated weaponry.And seemingly not even to care about any repercussions.Some others I've listened to say that when gold and silver do move it's going to be fast and dramatic.Let's see if I'm right or wrong?What events coming into the bottom for Gold will lead to this bottoming timeframe?And then,what major events happen to bring up the rise in the Gold price?
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/776/2014-09-16/Cycles-Sa...
Yellen: Inflation has firmed some this year
cpi
month over month ... year over year
may ... +0.4% ... +2.1%
june ... +0.3% ... +2.1%
july ... +0.1% ... +2.0%
august ... -0.2% ... +1.7%
Rate hike? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH. Yeah, like that's going to happen. Let's do some simple math: a 1% hike on 20 Trill $ debt means an additional 200 bill $ in interest payments. Let's go back to the rate at the turn of the century (seems so long ago doesn't it?) of around 9-10% and the interest on debt will just about equal the entire annual revenue collected. I would have to guess it's pretty much game over at that point. Although, I suspect the game would be over long before then, as the economy would have taken a total crap by then.
Isn't it great when you see these PhD retards paint themselves into a corner?
Apparently PHd's lack basic math skills
Who is going to buy U.S. bonds at 2%?
Let's see you can buy German bonds and lose money, or it looks like Spanish/Italian bonds are in the 2.5% range (yeah, like that makes sense). I'd say anyone with access to fiat will probably buy U.S. bonds at 2.0% once the Fed exits, compared to the shit show elsewhere. I know we have our own shit show, just not as shitty....yet.
The shittest is Japan, then Maybe Europe exclude German, then we get UK and US. Anyway, this world is full of shits.
Easy Money for a long time. USD surges. I guess i know absolutely nothing.