Homebuilder Sentiment Soars To 9 Year High (Mortgage Apps 14-Year Low)

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite lagging mortgage applications and home sales, homebuilder sentiment surged for the 4th month in a row to 59 (against expectations of 56) to its highest since November 2005. Prospective Buyer Traffic (hope) soared to 47. The South region rose dramatically as Midwest fell. The disconnect between hard data in the housing market and soft survey guesses by the homebuilders grows ever wider...

 

First this...

 

4th beat in a row to Nov 2005 highs...

 

Midwest lost the lead to the South...

 

Of course, We've seen this before...

 

Charts:Bloomberg

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the not so mighty maximiza's picture

If you build a McMansion the clowns will come...hopefully

 

NoDebt's picture

Housing builder sentiment surveys.  About as useful as asking somebody who nearly drowned two minutes before "So, would you say you are currently more hopeful about the future or less hopeful than when you were drowning?"

These clowns been down so long they don't even know what up looks like.

Plus they lie.  There's always that.

NoDebt's picture

Do you think it would be a good idea to build homes that are nothing but basements?  It might help spark demand from the younger crowd.  You know, famimilar surroundings and all that.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

There is a 'house' down the road from us that is actually a concrete block 'basement' with windows and a roof over it that was built into the side of a hill. The prior owner planned on living in the 'basement' while he built the house above him. Never got beyond the basement. Has bedrooms, bathroom, living room, kitchen and a slider front door.

Recently sold for $50k. The land alone was worth the price. The 'house' came with the land. The new owner put in two large detached storage sheds that together nearly equal the sf of the 'house'.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Sounds like a damn good place to fort up....

GubbermintWorker's picture

Absolutely! I'd love to have an earth home! Energy efficient, easily camoflaged.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just another data series hijacked by the manipulators under the guise of national security.

tarsubil's picture

I look at a lot of these big neighborhoods that are sprouting up alongside the ones from the last bubble and there is a bleak gaudiness of the neighborhoods. Big and impressive while bland and washed out homes. Popular American culture is sad and pathetic.

IREN Colorado's picture

Actually, these statistics refer to "units" built. One unit is one living space. A "100 unit" apartment leased completely to government sheeple section 8 tenants equals 100 "housing units" built and sold. Therefore as the USG becomes our landlord through subsidies provided to FOOs (friends of obama) & other corporate welfare cretins, the market is all Bully!

Note that the mortgages are down because individuals and families are not buying condos, townhomes, or single family dwellings. The only buyers are the people congress and Barry Hussein want to make money off of the coporate welfare system.

As a result of these funny numbers, the media report a booming construction business while the Real Estate Market is being destroyed for the rest of US.

blown income's picture

Here in Lafayette La they are building like crazy on postage stamp lots for $150-$200+ a foot 

 

I know to some here that's nothing to some cities but your talking Southwest La 

 

Yes there is a college and medical centers coupled with oil and gas but I really don't know how in he'll they afford these prices coupled with $120k for 2 cars in the driveway.

 

I lost my job in June and all the jobs I see posted are fast food or $11 a hour to work in some oil company yard doing slave work

 

I am a collision painter and have always made a good living 

 

Been to Texas  few times to seek jobs but the Mexicans doing it dirt cheap

27 years I have been doing this and I am good at what I do but company's hiring the cheap labor

 

 

 

 

brown_hornet's picture

Start your own business..,.preferably under the table.

blown income's picture

I finally broke down and filed for UE 

 

Curious if I get it 

 

Believe me if I could start my own business I would

 

Really like to find a place or someone who has land me and my family can work and get off the grid and live off the land

 

 

IREN Colorado's picture

When was the last time you saw a young caucasian working at a construction site? Or, even an "African American". We've found a perverse way to export our construction industry by bringing in illegal workers and allowing the Corporate Construction Complex to employ them in a manner that is blatantly illegal. Note: it is not because this is work Americans won't do. It is because the US Chamber of Commerce, FOOs (friends of obama), and the construction industry have decided to pay $10.00 per hour for jobs that previously paid three to four times that. We destroy our industries as if we have them to spare!

So, we have that going for US......

Panem et Circus's picture

Bullshit, go to any construction job in middle America. Talk to the foreman, ask him if he'd take a handful of Mexicans over 100+ white guys to do anything on that job. He'll take the handfull every day of the week. Every single small business owner I have talked to in the past three years is looking for help. The white guys feel entitled to high wages ($25 for unskilled labor is high in my market), when they only offer shit service. The Mexicans are willing to work, will do the job without complaining, and work for $15 an hour (decent for unskilled labor in my market). The black guys don't even apply for the job by and large.

IREN Colorado's picture

I'm there every day. In fact whites don't have to apply because they won't be hired. They won't be hired because the hiring interviews are done in spanish. There is nothing wrong with the white work ethic. It is the racist hiring ethic of illegal employers who need to be dealt with.

Throw the bums in jail for hiring illegals.

http://cis.org/High-Cost-of-Cheap-Labor#executive

This study is one of the first to estimate the total impact of illegal immigration on the federal budget. Most previous studies have focused on the state and local level and have examined only costs or tax payments, but not both. Based on Census Bureau data, this study finds that, when all taxes paid (direct and indirect) and all costs are considered, illegal households created a net fiscal deficit at the federal level of more than $10 billion in 2002. We also estimate that, if there was an amnesty for illegal aliens, the net fiscal deficit would grow to nearly $29 billion.

Among the findings:

  • Households headed by illegal aliens imposed more than $26.3 billion in costs on the federal government in 2002 and paid only $16 billion in taxes, creating a net fiscal deficit of almost $10.4 billion, or $2,700 per illegal household.

     

  • Among the largest costs are Medicaid ($2.5 billion); treatment for the uninsured ($2.2 billion); food assistance programs such as food stamps, WIC, and free school lunches ($1.9 billion); the federal prison and court systems ($1.6 billion); and federal aid to schools ($1.4 billion).

     

  • With nearly two-thirds of illegal aliens lacking a high school degree, the primary reason they create a fiscal deficit is their low education levels and resulting low incomes and tax payments, not their legal status or heavy use of most social services.

     

  • On average, the costs that illegal households impose on federal coffers are less than half that of other households, but their tax payments are only one-fourth that of other households.

     

  • Many of the costs associated with illegals are due to their American-born children, who are awarded U.S. citizenship at birth. Thus, greater efforts at barring illegals from federal programs will not reduce costs because their citizen children can continue to access them.

     

  • If illegal aliens were given amnesty and began to pay taxes and use services like households headed by legal immigrants with the same education levels, the estimated annual net fiscal deficit would increase from $2,700 per household to nearly $7,700, for a total net cost of $29 billion.

     

  • Costs increase dramatically because unskilled immigrants with legal status -- what most illegal aliens would become -- can access government programs, but still tend to make very modest tax payments.

     

  • Although legalization would increase average tax payments by 77 percent, average costs would rise by 118 percent.
power steering's picture

Builders are obviously faking orgasm

BandGap's picture

Call it "builder's kool-aid".

NotApplicable's picture

The only building I see going on in State U. town are multi-story student-housing projects, hospital expansions, grant funded infrastructure projects, and of course, growth of State U. itself.

In other words, only projects where Uncle Sugar is either the direct provider of funding (construction or end-user), or guarantor of the debt issued.

This should end well.

Squid Viscous's picture

Larry Yun's wife tells him he did a great job, every time... with his 2 inch cock, reinforces his confidence...

Seasmoke's picture

Just build and sell for cash. What's the problem ???

astoriajoe's picture

yeah, not sure what the mortgage data has anything to do with..

LawsofPhysics's picture

So much "recoupling" to do...

BandGap's picture

That's where one line from the graph meets the other and things start to make sense, right?

Everybodys All American's picture

Sentiment is just another form of hope and change.

ekm1's picture

EAT SENTIMENT

 

No need to produce output.

Sentiment is juicy and tasty

 

Also. Eat LOVE. Love will make you not need to drink and eat. You live by love and sentiments.

Heaven. No food needed

j-dub's picture

"Fake it till ya make it" TO THE EXTREME!!!!

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

My Pussyhunter Sentiment Index (PSI) always soars early on in the evening when I just know I'm gonna score this time, but then as the evening progresses and reality sets in it drops back to zero, which is what will happen with the homebuilders too.

vyeung's picture

another bogus survey

Oldwood's picture

Builders are fucking salesmen and they will claim optimism until the repo man is at their door. Have you ever heard one claim that NOW it is NOT the best time to buy?

I mean really.....I'm sick of these fucking polls. We need to know what people are doing or going to do, not what they THINK someone else will do.

I think Obama will violate himself with a dried corncob....but then again, what do I know?

PTR's picture

Have you ever heard one claim that NOW it is NOT the best time to buy?

 

Yes. She said "yesterday" was the best time to buy...but it's still not too late!

JRobby's picture

What a fucking joke. This is actually almost funny if you enjoy absurd humor.

Shaznardickleze the Doon's picture

Obsurd humor is our primary export these days. The sound of the laughs have changed though, more maniacle and mentally unstable giggling.

Quinvarius's picture

I suspect people are just paying cash.

JRobby's picture

I suspect Hedge Funds and Private Equity are just paying cash borrowed from TBTF's

 

fixed it!

Skip's picture

For DECADES Asians have been paying cash, I mean pulling out stacks of $100 bills from a brown paper shopping bag, in Queens, New York City and elsewhere. They have a racial/ethnic helping model where they pool money and lend at no interest to their, e.g. fellow Koreans. Whites DO NOT help other whites.

Oldwood's picture

Sure we do. They just force us to by theft through taxation. Unfortunately, for our sins, they expropriate a significant portion of that and give it to other "more deserving" races and cultures. Whitey be a bad man and deserves a spanking.

Just out of curiosity, how generous are Asians to other Asians in Asia, or is it more of an us versus them thing here in the states.

Skip's picture

You were right:
"Just out of curiosity, how generous are Asians to other Asians in Asia, or is it more of an us versus them thing here in the states."

starman's picture

My sentiment grows everyday as well. Making me realize just  how stupid people are!

papaswamp's picture

They have to be...they have gone all in. If the buyers dont show up in the next 6 months its game over.

ThroxxOfVron's picture

It's bullshit.

Banks are not originating loans unless the GSEs will take them and the GSEs are being run by ideologically constrained bureaucrats.

I know someone trying to get a refi.   Present LTV is 40% and they are looking to take out another 10% of the equity to consolidate and update the home.  The spread between their present loan and the present 30yr rates available would save them $500/month in such a consolidation.  Self employed/small biz, cash positive; but, no one will touch them...

 

IF they were minority and/or the mortgage was actually deeply underwater the GSEs would be cutting them a check.

The entire market has become a politically bifurcated mess of social engineering and redistributionist sentiment at one end and a foreign/corporate money levered orgy at the other...

silverer's picture

I agree things are a mess.  I have a good friend whose job it is to write mortgages, and he's been in the business for over 10 years.  He works his butt off everyday until 8 or 9 at night.  He says if the phone rings and he's not there, then somebody else gets the sale.  He also told me that the phones been ringing, but very few mortgages are making it to closing.  He said his job has become a major pain in the ass ever since they passed the Dodd Frank law.  The regulations just keep rolling in.  He said nobody in his office even wants to write a mortgage for less than $150,000, due to the painstaking pile of paperwork that must be filled out.  When the phone rings for something around $50,000 nobody even wants to write it.  The commission is only $180.00.  He says he makes HALF of what he used to make doing this work.  His pay is now regulated by government rules.  He's ready to pack it in and do something else for a living.  So the mountain of crap and roadblocks is mainly due to the good 'ol government.  It figures.

alexcojones's picture

Nobody at Lowe's or Home Depot when I shop there.

 

silverer's picture

I do maintenance only.  I realized that all the work I put into the house gets stolen at the closing.  They call inflation profit, and so you walk out with less than a profit.  This I call a loss.  So I have no incentive to work for free or to set myself up for a loss.  Isn't that amazing?  Productive individuals don't want to work for free?  What a concept.

ejmoosa's picture

As long as the banks keep giving them the funds to build, they will be happy.

Silverhog's picture

And NAHB has no skin in the game. Worthless sediment if you ask me. 

Pumpkin's picture

I get it!  This is the hope and change.  They just don't match.

Duude's picture

Deep-pocketed foreign investors don't need no stinkin' mortgage app.

Skip's picture

Maybe the homebuilders are reading data that the average American isn't. E.G.

CENSUS: Noncitizen Income Rising 15X Faster Than Native Workers

Foreign-Born Population to Reach 60 Million

Since 2000, All Employment Growth Has Gone to Immigrants

And since the USSA's population growth is fueled by immigrants, legal and illegal, then homebuilders realize: THEY HAVE TO LIVE SOMEPLACE, so BUILD AWAY economic visionaries. Reality favors you!!!