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First YouGov Poll Predicts The Scottish "No's" Have It With 54% Of The Vote
With a reported turnout above 90% (over 4.2 million votes), YouGov reports its exit polls at...
- *YOUGOV REFERENDUM PREDICTION: YES 46%, NO 54%
- *SCOTLAND VOTES: YOUGOV CHIEF SEES 99% CHANCE OF `NO' WINNING
It appears, as somewhat expected, that Fife will be the key swing constituency.
YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% - http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 18, 2014
YouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 18, 2014
* * *
GBP was pushing higher into the polls
* * *
Addiitional declaration times are throughout the evening...
With Credit Suisse guesstimates of YES/NO:
Rumors are active..
At Edinburgh counting centre, Scottish Secretary Carmichael, "No" campaigner, walks into announcement hall with big smile: AFP live blog
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 18, 2014
Remember...
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The looting continues....
The looting would have continued no matter the outcome.
When I saw a BBC news clip yesterday of a portly no supporting middle aged Scottish woman fearmongering about losing her pension if a yes vote was successful I knew for sure all bets were off on the affirmative.
I heard that Obama won by 5 mm votes
Now it’s time for London to renege on all those promises.
Oh yeah, but not only that...they must PUNISH Scotland, 0bama-style.
The EU would have punished Scotland worse.
They would have needed to set a precedent to keep Belgium and Spain from falling apart.
On a lighter note... the new flag of England and Northern Ireland would have looked like a red 6-legged bug. (See frame 13)
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-17/scotland-independence-vo...
I'm with Victoria Nuland: "FUCK THE EU."
With respect to unfair taxation, apportion of debt, skimming oil royalties, fisheries, general economic and sociopolitical enslavement, and FINALLY the promise of REAL SCOTTISH PROSPERITY, I wonder how many "No Voters" are aware of how much they just "FUCKED SCOTLAND."
They Will Be.
WHO COUNTS THE VOTES?
NOTICE the table with the 'NO' votes has a 'YES' vote right on top!
http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/YesinNo.jpg
Are we going to blame the disappointing result on yet another conspiracy? The Scots want to stay linked with England. It's a Protestant vs. Catholic thing. The protestants want to remain Loyal Ulster.
What promises?
Probably talking about these:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/backlash-from-tor...
Edit: Flaming bagpipes:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/512552884194770944
Sounds the same as a Democratic PAC advertisement in the US... Fear! Republicans will cut! Etc, Etc -- even though bothh parties are the same..
Not surprised that I was right, but am saddened just that I was. 5231270
Would have LOVED to have been wrong, seeing that Scotland's Freeeeeedooommm! is a helluva lot more important than my ego. I was gonna make some wise cracks, but the moment has passed, and I'm mourning for Scotland.
One to beam up, Scotty.
The referendum's dead, Jim.
The mains are back on line! Warp 11! Get us the hell outaa here!
My final prediction 51% /49% in favor of union. I find it somewhat bemusing that no matter where you go on this globe, you find elections in which the outcome always seems to be within a few percentage points. As though no society on this planet can muster a majority of any kind unless you belong to some despotic regime i.e. King Saddam pre-2003 and Dick is the vice-president of Murica.
There's no way this vote is legit - too much at stake, I'm sure the NSA/CIA/DOD/MI5/MI6/Mossad/DIA/SD/AFISR/FBI/INSCOM/CGI/JIO/CSIS/CSEC is having a field day raping and suppressing a peaceful revolution.
As regular as flipping a coin.
no votes are ever legit.
there is cheating everywhere on both sides, however, the side that controls the election counting machinery (or more of it) will always win.
I do not think it will be easy to rig this vote. This is not Ukraine. And this is not Iraq. Too many eyeballs on this and I do not believe they are as clever as they think they are.
Too many eyeballs keeping it straight.
Guess it depends on whether they have electronic (Diebold) voting machines. No paper trail. No audit. No proof. Oh, wait, that's here. Never mind.
The people who cast the votes decide nothing; those who count the votes decide everything. Brother Stalin
MolaTov's & riots in the streets in 3, 2, 1......
Where I live I am surrounded by CROWN Land. WTF is that please. "Crown land". Get off our island.
Is that where the king gets to fuck your new wife before you do?
That would be the precedent. In my case it the King gets to cornhole my husband.
>> the King gets to cornhole my husband.
That's why them buggers wear kilts.
already declared...reminds me of when Bush won
Bullshit results.
RIPS
Fuck you junkers!!
Subverted.
Now they suffer.
I hope the results are really yes and the BOE and city of london close forever.
To dream.....
RIPS
X aye X
YES YES YES YES YES and then "pull an Iceland". But that may be too much to hope for. (I am really hesitant about using the word hope ....think the prez of usdoom wrote that word off forever.)
and 'folks'
and "let me be clear"
Really? Give me minute to put on my SHOCKED face!!!
there is an opportunity here to evaluate the NO voters - by a psychologist -
was their vote largely based on general FEARS? - not factually based - not on specific facts
they had a backstop with the oil and gas regardless of ten years or 50 years reserves and their own tax base and energy yet they were scared of the unknown based upon my distant instinct - the bogeyman ---- if so the USA is lost as well, the middle class is not worth talking about anymore just let them go away and disappear
human nature is what the 1/10 of 1% relies on for control
In the immortal words of Mr. Oogie Boogie,
When Mr. Oogie Boogie says
There's trouble close at hand
You'd better pay attention now
'Cause I'm the Boogie Man
And if you aren't shakin'
Then something's very wrong
'Cause this may be the last time now
That you hear the boogie song,
Fear Oogie Scotland!!
I have watched polls go wrong, way wrong before. Quite recently in BC Canada.
This was a good day to vote. Hope Scots do it for themselves. Voter turnout is HUGE.
And I would point out that polls are used to influence voters beforehand. Sheep wish to conform to the "norm". So a poll that involves 1500 people is flawed as a reflection of the population #1. But putting out results for weeks is meant to influence voting.
Polls keep people employed. Accurate? But have become a political tool. A lobbyist if the shoe fits. You can rig a poll but I think you have a harder time rigging an over 80% voter turnout unless it is in Ukraine or Zimbawe or other CIA playgrounds.
Hard to rig a vote when so many actual people (not assets) are doing the counting.
That's not a turnout of sheeple...
Quite right. CONFORMISM IS A POWERFUL FORCE among helpless people. They are the most contemptible sort, fully prepared to vote "TO GET ALONG" on even the most serious issues rather than think for themselves and vote their conscience. It's hard to sympathize when they're exploited by psychopaths, as they're the first to turn in their neighbors before a totalitarian regime turns on them.
Exit polls are notoriously wrong. People who don't want to be caught on camera, or caught otherwise, usually go with the status quo. Not like you're going to catch them anyway.
It's all about who is asking the question.
Fair point. I enjoy playing with pollsters and marketers. Much of what they ask is nobody's business.
To build a marriage it takes 2 Yes's. To break one it takes 1 No.
A half-vote in favor of separation is a vote for separation.
Your analogy is a bit flawed.
It takes only one yes to break a mariage, but in taht case it would be Ireland's Yes versus the U-K's No.
I wonder how they got that? Exit polls are technically illegal there.
...oh yeah, I forgot the whole thing was rigged "NO" in the first place.
YouGov is not presenting an exit poll.
If these numbers are close to correct, tt doesn't matter if it's no. With that kind of turn out and that many yes votes, the UK will burn. That is a lot of people that don't want to be a part of that union anymore. That won't change after this vote.
"Vive le Québec libre!"
After the posters are thrown in the dumpsters...nobody will care.
the separatististaz will be greatly a) encouraged and b) encouraged that the have world-wide sympathy. All fodder for their various causes. Basques, Catalanz, and on and on.
- Ned
Québec is a province of hind-teat parasites: Canada's heavily-subsidized Mediterranean. Entitlement culture runs deep. It will take some sort of major upheaval, a Canadian Bank Bail-In at least, to refire Séparatisme. Do not look to Péquistes for initiative. They will react only when forced.
That is not an exit poll.
Numbers are dog shit. From BBC:
YouGov's on the day prediction poll is based on the responses from 1,828 people who voted today, together with 800 who had already voted by post and were interviewed previously.
The ones who were contacted today consist of respondents to one of YouGov's polls conducted earlier this week, and the company claims there has been a small shift from "Yes" to "No" among this group.
one Scotch please
One bourbon....and....
one beer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6bk_qJw5XY
Gee. What a surprise. Maybe one day it will be more advantageous for the bankers and then Scotland will be "free" as a motherfucker!
Free from what? Government? Last I checked they were not voting to dissolve government. Until you do that, you are never free.
YES YES YES
NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
As punishment for trying to secede, England will reinstitute Prima Nocta for 3 years on all Scottish maidens.
It's hard to reinstate a myth...
It does have to be hard to do Droight de Seignieure.
- Ned
"The problem with Scotland is there are too many Scots!"
Well that wasn't expected.
/sarc
Exactly as expected ... of course still stonage sheeple.
Anything else would have been a huge surprise.
scotch spot prices just crashed. time to buy a pallet or two.
Sheep will be sheep.
since there are sheep ... they never eft stoneage.
These were the easiest trades of the year - first down GBPUSD, GBPJPY, FTSE exactly into the week before OE - and thereafter and into OE all of them again higher.
Of course NOT rigged ... LOLZ
So going in we expected a near 50 50 outcome and now it's 46 to 54! That's a pretty big change. I wonder how much that costs.
Joe Kennedy, after Jack was elected, was talking about Cook County. He said: "I had enough money to buy a win, but I didn't want to spend enough to get a landslide."
- Ned
In this world fear beats change every time
"Deep Fried Monarch Please"
So sad.
Pussies
stoneage pussies
Are there any Black Panthers out there threatening whitey away from the polls?
Yougov "poll" is a poll of internet panel members who say they have voted. Whatever that means.
go to bed or stay up all night?
Then the royals pay off the leaders, beat a few protesters to death and the regime goes on...
yeah and Bush won in Florida too...
not gonna buy it...and it wont matter in the end anyway...
the global depression will kill the MoneyChangers grand scam...
keep stackin'.......
I don't really expect the pound to go much higher. The markets pretty much knew what the outcome was going to be after the newer poles were released.
The Cable closed the gap down from the Friday voting pole and is already 120 or so pips above it, to Draghi ECB levels. the GBP macro hasn't been that good, and structurally Scotland has major issues to deal with, even if the NO vote wins.
Take your common sense elsewhere and let me enjoy my shitty blelnded malt scotch I bought to celebrate.
LOL! A fifth of Bells, please.
agreed
It's all bs anyway. They would have adopted the euro, how is that for independence? I bet the markets will be up up up tomorrow and through the rest of the decade, nothing else matters.
"YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. Today’s respondents had previously given their voting intention earlier this week. By recontacting them, we could assess any last-minute shift in views. Today’s responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote," it said on its website.
So they are re running the same poll twice, leaving out all the off-sample people as the first time.
I wonder which way Fat Bastard voted.
Or how many votes Fat Bastard gets... if its based on weight...
Dewey beats Truman!
'FUCK YouGOV! ' end quote.
Contrary to most of my fellow ZH'ers, I'm not really one of those NWO conspiracy believers - no offence - but in this particular case, I believe TPTB will do anything (and yes, I really mean anything) to make sure that the no's will win the day. A "yes"-victory would really open Pandora's box in the EU: Catalunya, Flanders...
We can't possibly have that, can we?
Gordoom "Jonah" Brown has spent the last 6 months filling out fake postal votes with NO.
He finally found a job he can do.
Scotland is a mess either way. Welfare society run amok.
They have elected "slaves for another generation".
But if they are lucky EU will break apart within next few years and they get another chance once the pound is worth half of todays value.
OK. At this point 54% of Scots don't have the spine to stand on their own two feet.
Bloody wankers and I was going to get drunk on scotch and run up the stars n bars. Ill get drunk on burbon and run up the the stars n bars
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1993-06-09/
All it means is that we are getting that much closer to hanging the banksters.
Do they use computerized machines, then NO.
Are results tallied and reported locally? If not, then NO.
Good luck, Scots, you're going to need it.
Whatever the outcome, the Norman French will still control things on both sides of the border. (Robert "the Bruce" was Norman)
Nothing like that good ole fashioned vote counting software
scotland, its not all buckfast and rain..........
https://encyclopediadramatica.es/Scotland
the most media coverage scotland has had for the past 300 years
sit tight everyone we'll get back to isis and the ukraine after this short intermission
luvsya
Diebold thanks you...
Now let the Glasgow Spring commence....
Going down the Quebec road. Threaten to separate. Get more free stuff. Don't separate. 10 years later, repeat.
C'est vrai, mon ami.
Although my family is originally from Scotland:
P$%SSIES !!!
Job done, the media campaign for the last week was executed perfectly, the sheeple went back into their pen.
William Wallace is spinning in his grave like a fan.
FUCKING COWARD SHEEPLE!
If it's 54-46, that is better than I expected as odds-makers were offering just one for five on a NO vote. As many of those who vote yes are the young, the future looks like independence. At the very least, it will limit what the UK government will risk doing that might upset voters - like joining in on the next (neo 'conservative' initiated) war that the USG/NATO wants. Additonally, if there is a deep recession now, which is overdue, it cannot be blamed on independence.
WHO OWNS THE ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES?
IT AMAZES ME THIS ISN'T THE FIRST QUESTION ASKED IN EVERY ELECTION.
As a Scot....
Baaaaaaaaaaaa. They even let fucking sheep vote here.
Lets see what the final results are like.
I haven't gotten too ecited about the whole because I am not Scotch. And I don't have any Scotch silver coins.,or any gold ones either. Did anyone bring anything to the table about a Scotch Central Bank and what type of currency would be issued? Would there be another shitty paper currency issued forth on FOREX? Let me guess, it would pegged the pound sterling which is,.. well we already know how that goes. Trade one crook for the other and see how that goes for Scotchland.
You are a good guy and I'm giving the rib on the "Scotch". I wish you all the best, I can wish in one and crap in the other and see which gets filled first though. I could be worse you know, you could have Barack Obama for a golfer or.... Fuck it, nevermind me.
"Coward of the County" by Kenny Rogers (1980)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEJniCCuqR4
Whatever, I'll never take anyone seriously that calls himself Fleckenshit or whatever! He looks like Taco from; "The League"
That edible is kicking in!
take a look at UK soverign debt CDS spreads
they barely moved
this is NOT happening
Yes? No? Ask the brits if they lived in a country called Scotland and they were given the chance to be independent. Would they vote Yes or No? I thought so!!!
Wussies, pure and simple. My great grandparents [who emigrated from Scotland to the U.S. right after the Civil War] would be horrified at a people afraid to get off the English tit. Enjoy morons.
www.traderzoo.mobi
A No vote will leave no one happy.
Almost half the Scottish population will have voted Yes and be aggrieved that they were blocked and they will blame every ongoing irritation in life on being forced to remain part of the UK, and they will continue to campaign for exit.
Those who voted No will have got nothing more than what they had before, which for most was not very thrilling. Which will leave them starting to feel remorse, especially as they are attacked by those who voted Yes.
The UK government will feel pressed to offer more goodies to the Scots, at the expense of the rest of the UK, particularly England. Scotland has selfrule while England does not. Scotland gets a disproportionate share of government funds taken from the English, who didn't get a vote on the result.
So expect almost everyone to end up unhappy about a No vote.
When I think of YouGov I think of Huffington Post. When I think of Huffington Post I think 'propaganda.' Ergo I think this is propaganda designed at creating an idea ahead of time, to cover any fraud that may be perpetrated.
Whoever actually believed this would pass was deluding themselves. Did you *really* think City of London would allow this?
I thought "no" meant they aren't staying. Again it's all aboot how you frame the question. And who counts the votes. And bad math.
Scotland proves a people that are on the dole and dependent on others neither can no will ever be free of the hand that feeds them.
The same exact thing happened when Quebec tried to leave Canada.
Socialism means slavery.
DOH! Don't you just hate it when people ask "where's the money supposed to come from to pay for all this?"
It always seems to come up at the most inconvenient times...
Drones ... with kilts
YouGov, surely YouJoke...
The fucking worthless Scots! Bunch of fucking pansy candy asses too busy sucking on the English tit to even want their freedom. They are a fucking disgrace who do not deserve to be called Scottish any longer. They should be called English from here on out. They should be put in big concentration camps by the English and all killed. That is the fate they deserve for their lack of courage. They make me puke. I would piss on the heads of the whole lot of them. FUCK YOU, SCOTLAND. Believe me, if there is ever a vote for a free Texas, I would vote for it even if I had to live in a cave and eat dog food for the rest of my life - at least I would be a free Texan.