Exponential: Ebola Cases Now Double Every 3 Weeks; CDC Warns As Many As Half A Million May Be Infected Soon

Tyler Durden's picture

Since the start of the outbreak, the Ebola virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to the WHO; and as The UN explains, the outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen with the number of cases is doubling every three weeks. As Sierra Leone instigates a 3-day nationwide shutdown to contain the deadly virus, the UN Secretary-General explains "Ebola matters to us all," as we noted previously the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end. The CDC, however, hot on the heels of the UN's proclamation that "the gravity and scale of the situation now require an unprecedented level of international action," has warned that unless government intervention is increased significantly, 550,000 people could be infected by the end of January. "Contained?"

As The Secretary General of The UN stated...

The Ebola crisis has evolved into a complex emergency, with significant political, social, economic, humanitarian and security dimensions.  The suffering and spillover effects in the region and beyond demand the attention of the entire world.  Ebola matters to us all.

 

The outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen.  The number of cases is doubling every three weeks.  There will soon be more cases in Liberia alone than in the four-decade history of the disease.

 

In the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – the disease is destroying health systems.  More people are now dying in Liberia from treatable ailments and common medical conditions than from Ebola.

 

The virus is also taking an economic toll.  Inflation and food prices are rising. Transport and social services are being disrupted.  The situation is especially tragic given the remarkable strides that Liberia and Sierra Leone have made in putting conflict behind them.

 

National governments are doing everything they can.  I applaud the courageous actions of the governments, communities and individuals on the frontlines, including local health workers, Médecins Sans Frontières, the International Federation for the Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN entities.

 

The gravity and scale of the situation now require a level of international action unprecedented for a health emergency.

Sierra Leone has instigated a 3-day nationwide shutdown to try and contain the spread of the virus...

 

And now the CDC warns, things are about to World War Z...

The Ebola outbreak in West Africacould spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end ofJanuary, according to an estimate under development by the U.S.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.

 

The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.

 

The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

 

“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” said Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”

 

A separate worst-case scenario modeled last month by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University predicted there would be as many as 277,124 new cases by the year’s end.

 

That was the high end of their estimate, though the researchers warned that “uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas.”

And as Bloomberg notes, they are going to need more money...

Curbing the outbreak will require investments of $988 million over the next six months, according to an overview of needs and requirements published by the UN.

 

About 30 percent of what’s needed has come in so far, Nabarro said earlier this week at a briefing in Geneva.

It appears "Moore's Law" has come to Ebol, and $1 billion seems like nothing: half a day's POMO?