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Exponential: Ebola Cases Now Double Every 3 Weeks; CDC Warns As Many As Half A Million May Be Infected Soon

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since the start of the outbreak, the Ebola virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to the WHO; and as The UN explains, the outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen with the number of cases is doubling every three weeks. As Sierra Leone instigates a 3-day nationwide shutdown to contain the deadly virus, the UN Secretary-General explains "Ebola matters to us all," as we noted previously the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end. The CDC, however, hot on the heels of the UN's proclamation that "the gravity and scale of the situation now require an unprecedented level of international action," has warned that unless government intervention is increased significantly, 550,000 people could be infected by the end of January. "Contained?"

As The Secretary General of The UN stated...

The Ebola crisis has evolved into a complex emergency, with significant political, social, economic, humanitarian and security dimensions.  The suffering and spillover effects in the region and beyond demand the attention of the entire world.  Ebola matters to us all.

 

The outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen.  The number of cases is doubling every three weeks.  There will soon be more cases in Liberia alone than in the four-decade history of the disease.

 

In the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – the disease is destroying health systems.  More people are now dying in Liberia from treatable ailments and common medical conditions than from Ebola.

 

The virus is also taking an economic toll.  Inflation and food prices are rising. Transport and social services are being disrupted.  The situation is especially tragic given the remarkable strides that Liberia and Sierra Leone have made in putting conflict behind them.

 

National governments are doing everything they can.  I applaud the courageous actions of the governments, communities and individuals on the frontlines, including local health workers, Médecins Sans Frontières, the International Federation for the Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN entities.

 

The gravity and scale of the situation now require a level of international action unprecedented for a health emergency.

Sierra Leone has instigated a 3-day nationwide shutdown to try and contain the spread of the virus...

 

And now the CDC warns, things are about to World War Z...

The Ebola outbreak in West Africacould spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end ofJanuary, according to an estimate under development by the U.S.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.

 

The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.

 

The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

 

“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” said Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”

 

A separate worst-case scenario modeled last month by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University predicted there would be as many as 277,124 new cases by the year’s end.

 

That was the high end of their estimate, though the researchers warned that “uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas.”

And as Bloomberg notes, they are going to need more money...

Curbing the outbreak will require investments of $988 million over the next six months, according to an overview of needs and requirements published by the UN.

 

About 30 percent of what’s needed has come in so far, Nabarro said earlier this week at a briefing in Geneva.

It appears "Moore's Law" has come to Ebol, and $1 billion seems like nothing: half a day's POMO?

 

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Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:17 | 5235392 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Yep, just print it and go...

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:28 | 5235456 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Read Pierre Ouliette's book "The Third Pandemic" last night.  

Even for fiction that was unsettling.  

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:47 | 5235539 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Whether you are talking monkey cages or a city, at some point there will be a flair over, in which every critter is infected.

Then you'll see some panic.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:52 | 5235572 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Funny, just finished Peter Heller "The Dog Stars" last night. Great dystopian post-pandemic novel.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 16:06 | 5235624 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

first "developed" country to import Ebola: Japan.  and the Yen goes absolutely crazy (higher). 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:11 | 5236039 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Is it time to short airlines?

 

 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:23 | 5236074 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

No worries. Obama sent 3000 troops to fight Ebola and as you already know, US has the latest weaponry available.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:52 | 5236161 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture
'Doctors: 'Irresponsible' to send troops to 'combat' Ebola'

“You can see that these doctors, who are highly trained people, got themselves infected,” said Dr. Lee Hieb, former president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. “So sending troops into an area, if they’re dealing one-on-one with a patient, they’re not going to be able to protect themselves very well. It’s not easy to [prevent transmission], because you get tired and you get careless and you make some simple mistakes. All it takes is one virus particle.”

http://www.wnd.com/2014/09/doctors-irresponsible-to-send-troops-to-comba...

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:01 | 5236202 outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

The last time I got really sick, it was a modeling tool that saved my life!

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:49 | 5236681 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"You can see that these doctors, who are highly trained people, got themselves infected,” said Dr. Lee Hieb, former president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. “So sending troops into an area, if they’re dealing one-on-one with a patient, they’re not going to be able to protect themselves very well."

But the Communist News Network viewers won't be screaming if we don't fly each infected soldier back to Atlanta for treatment. So it's all good.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:08 | 5236874 Memedada
Memedada's picture

Just about to up-vote - but didn't. I'm far from a communist, but I know what communism is. And CNN is not it (fascist, yes).....

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 07:39 | 5237391 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

We like communism? Be honest Pepe!

 

Catch ebola....and get a free plane ride to the US....we have a plan.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:11 | 5236885 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

 "the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end."

 

America's "open door" policy will kill us.

We can't "discriminate" against ebola carriers.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 00:22 | 5237004 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

How the fuck do they know what the "odds" are? And what meaning does this statement have? If one case shows up does that mean it's arrived; who the fuck cares. What kind of stupid ass propaganda is this.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 03:09 | 5237224 The Doofus
The Doofus's picture

Ebola's very bad.  But ass cancer is even worse.  Maybe you'll fall victim to a serial killer.  Something's gonna get you.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 08:59 | 5237478 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

How the fuck do they know what the "odds" are

 

Who runs Bartertown bitch?

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 09:51 | 5237525 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

It sure as fuck isn't O'Duffer.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 01:27 | 5237100 MedTechEntrepreneur
MedTechEntrepreneur's picture

18%....pftftftttt.  It's 100% because it's the plan.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 08:18 | 5237432 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

It's 100% because they already brought infected patients to America.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 14:08 | 5252636 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

EVERYTHING isn't a CONSPIRACY.

In general, Americans are WAY more productive to the global economy than 95% of the rest of the world.

They want to kill off the "usurpers". We are bringing it here so we can create a world devastating, ebola based, military

weapon........drone delivery.

My hope is that they do the studies in LA, Chicago, Phioladelphia, NY, Detroit, Miami.......

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 09:51 | 5237524 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

And yet, there's all that algo hate...

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:01 | 5236203 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Mot impotent, that’s my first thought. If the well-trained docs and nurses are catching this ‘non-airborne’ disease, sounds like the soldiers will be pretty vulnerable to the virus.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:12 | 5236394 knukles
knukles's picture

Never fear.  Amerkun shoulders is exceptional

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:30 | 5236455 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Don't know about shoulders, but Britt thought I had a magic wand.

Ah, the older we get, the better we used to be;)

 

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 09:52 | 5237526 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Cuz thay eat mor chiken?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:55 | 5236349 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

If Dr Hieb has such a problem with sending troops to West Africa, then his ass should have been on a plane to West Africa with a bunch of his fellow doctors FOUR MONTHS AGO.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:15 | 5236739 smokintoad
smokintoad's picture

Yeah, sounds like "he" needs to get a clue. 

http://www.hieb2014.org/meet-dr-hieb.html

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:16 | 5236409 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

US Military Doctors going to Africa should only perform in consulting roles and should not even be in the same room as anyone "sick".   Observing from behind glass walls in rooms with filtered air should be the only role they play.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:26 | 5236447 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

It's Africa. There is very little glass and no such thing as filtered air there... 

And why are we sending U.S. miltary? What the fuck is wrong with sending those Xe/Academi serial killers?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:42 | 5236491 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Cost?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:08 | 5236870 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

3000 lives.

At first.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:08 | 5236546 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Africa is doomed.  Check out this "hospital", and tell Barry to stick it where the sun doesn't shine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irepY8Mip1E

 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:35 | 5236639 walküre
walküre's picture

3,000 US soldiers and how much ammo? Or are they sending explosive experts? The plan is to fight Ebola on its own turf before Ebola strikes in America. That has always been the plan when fighting any threat to America overseas.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 09:00 | 5237408 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

Nuke the site from orbit.....it's the only way to be sure.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 08:31 | 5237447 hibou-Owl
hibou-Owl's picture

it's reported that there are 5357 cases of which 2630 have died.
So that leaves 2727 cases with the average time to death of 16 days.

That's 36723 hospital/care places needed right now.
I watch the enclosed youtube clip and the hospital I'm guessing would treat a couple of dozen.

So 1530 treatment centres are needed right now just to keep in front of the infections.

Even with 3000 troops building treatment centres, the vast majority of people are going untreated, and in a months time even more.

These troops are going to have a tuff time of it!

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:06 | 5236868 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

.....What the fuck is wrong with sending those Xe/Academi serial killers?....

They are busy being moderate Muslims and eating livers and hearts at the moment. I'm not even sure Ebola would infect them out of professional curtosey.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 02:12 | 5237145 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

LOL. courtesy; not curtosey; but I'll give you a pass on that one for nihilistic attitude.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 08:51 | 5237471 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

They're busy in Ukraine.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:31 | 5236458 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Sure.  Gotta protect our precious military.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 07:56 | 5237412 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Thank you for support.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 04:17 | 5237279 buttmint
buttmint's picture

..is it just me, or does this whole ebola ordeal have the stench of 9/11 about it? The Joseph KONY false flag did not work out too well.

So let's bring in a real plague. US Army is now playing the reluctant role, when really, it wants to establish Army Base Zebra to recolonize Afrique and deny China any future resources.

Much easier to rule over a population if 90% of them are compost.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 07:42 | 5237396 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The Joseph KONY false flag did not work out too well.

 

Yeah....it sure as hell didn't.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:53 | 5236164 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. I feel like I have "EBOLA" right now. I was up all night celebrating the BA BA IPO and you would not believe what we did but I can only tell you it was highly illegal but since we made some today we thought "NO" problem but what was great was the fact that,

man, you just don't know in life. It's like one day you have a new "ZERO" on the end of your account, 500 grams of blow in your safe, and about 6 new "FEMALE" friends.

But what worries me greatly is how much negativity I read on website such as zer.......com. Does anyone really trade on here or are you all here to bitch and complain? I feel sorry for the Americans who "SEE" the fruit on the tree but for some reason never reach out and pick it.

/end-of-rant

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:37 | 5236294 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The people who have the zeros are not stupid enough to buy this market.  I have seen this shit twice already, and this one is set up way worse than the other two.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:42 | 5236315 General Decline
General Decline's picture

He's in India. He's impressed if he discovers a 6 square meter section of the Ganges is body part free. His frame of reference is a little off.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:03 | 5236372 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. No worries friend. I'm actually "GLAD" I'm not part of the American Super Power Dream.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:11 | 5236883 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

We are glad too.

As you were, numbnuts.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 07:45 | 5237399 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

As you were, numbnuts.

 

Cat just got  promoted.....not bad!

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:02 | 5236370 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Agreed Quin, but please don't feed the idiot troll.

He's getting 2 cents per comment to disrupt threads, and that's big money in his raggedy assed world.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:36 | 5236646 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Bet your ass; I'm just waiting patiently to pull the big Short trigger.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 02:12 | 5237148 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Go stick your head in the toilet for ten minutes; that'll take care of the whole problem.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:13 | 5236591 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

...or go long Scott, 3M and whatever mega corp that makes Chlorox.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:11 | 5236040 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Double post -- oops.

 

 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:35 | 5236291 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Better than a doubling post. "The Hitler Virus" was written by Senator Ron Wyden's father.

The subject of course was ideological. Interestingly...his father was one of the American Psychologists sent to analyze the Third Reich's "top of the line." They analyzed them for quite some time...

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:41 | 5236319 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

What, before they brought them all here to the US with Operation Paperclip?

Why not just psychoanalyze them here? Europe was such a bummer after WWII.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:11 | 5236042 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

Oldie but a goodie. A professor who refers to himself as "The Lizard Man" calls for exterminating 90% of the population with ebola and gets a standing ovation from his fellow ecologists.

http://prisonplanet.com/articles/april2006/040406cheer.htm

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:53 | 5236163 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

The joke's on them, because maybe .01% of them are going to get the 'cure'.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:56 | 5236180 bobola
bobola's picture

And here we have the famous National Security Study Memorandum 200, describing the need to depopulate underdeveloped countries, so the USA could extract more of their mineral reserves;

http://www.population-security.org/28-APP2.html

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:38 | 5236299 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Did it go....viral?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:46 | 5236331 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Apparently it did. Twice that we know of.

I can hardly wait - three time's the charm. What's next?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:04 | 5236377 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

But one dead American frees up more than 30x as much oil as dead West African...

The numbers are vary for less important commodities (copper, steel, aluminum, cattle, corn) but the pattern is unmistakable.

Throw in SNAP and SSI costs, and it's a no-brainer...

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:48 | 5236514 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Wow, the Africans are pretty fucked then, if this reading of the situation is right. 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:14 | 5236401 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Go read "Spillover" it is all about these viruses that cross species to humans. Reasonable amount of space was spent on Ebola. The nasty on these viruses is that they are sloppy when they replicate. There is no editing and error correction the way there is in most DNA things. These mutate while you watch. That is one reason that there has not been a generalized AIDS vaccine.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:54 | 5236836 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Now your scaring me.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 10:42 | 5237596 Christophe2
Christophe2's picture

LOL.  There has been no 'generalized AIDS vaccine' because THERE IS NO AIDS VIRUS!

http://www.virusmyth.com/aids/

Go try your scaremongering elsewhere, loser.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 01:57 | 5237131 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

So What; mass graves are no problem, that's what Bulldozers are for.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 10:42 | 5237597 Christophe2
Christophe2's picture

Time for Caterpillar to finally see a positive quarter?  I smell profit!!!

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 03:22 | 5237234 covertress
covertress's picture

Read Pierre Ouliette's book "The Third Pandemic" last night. 

Try Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague (non-fiction, includes first-hand Ebola account, scary)

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 05:59 | 5237324 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Doubles every three weeks.. Guess by Christmas and 100k the first MSM outlets will pay attention, when we cross the million threshold by the end of February a little panic seems, um, inevitable?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 17:54 | 5235982 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

I'm pretty sure they will be able to print humans pretty soon, so why not just save each victims DNA in a repository, and then when the tech is available, print them out?

Printing will save the entire world, we can probably print out a new world too.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:14 | 5236051 Keyser
Keyser's picture

They haven't found a way to re-introduce the soul from a digital imprint... Or so they say... 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:17 | 5236060 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

But the scientism crowd claims that souls don't exist because that's illogical.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:53 | 5236168 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

They'll be printable in iSoul 4.0. Just get in the line.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:40 | 5236307 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I wonder if they'll have disco music in the future?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:14 | 5236407 knukles
knukles's picture

Nope.  Just Soul Music

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:34 | 5236783 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

Hot Patootie, Bless My Soul

my life was saved by rock 'n roll

 

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 02:36 | 5237168 Greshams Law
Greshams Law's picture

He had a certain naive charm - but no muscle.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 01:08 | 5237073 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You're too cool for school, knukles.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 05:58 | 5237323 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

actually every iphone buyer have all their souls sold inside apple. getting a new version is an update of their souls...

 

somehow this is already happeing,  if not, why someone can sleep 10 days in front of store to be 1st to get the update ?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:15 | 5236405 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Just make sure the Fed does not get at that repository. They will over-populate the world in a fortnight.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:08 | 5236032 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Fukushima Daiichi

 

Lets add this to the fucking equation..

 

http://www.vice.com/vice-special/apocalypse-man-part-5

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:54 | 5236170 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Just the tip of that iceberg.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:43 | 5236327 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. Poor Micheal Ruppert, CIA got him. I "KNEW" it was going to happen. Fucking shame. Your USSA government are some sick fucks.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:51 | 5236684 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

ok, is that a puppy being dragged off by a man-lion in your avatar?

 

+ for the Michael C. Ruppert part.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:04 | 5236714 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. It's the Rally Monkey stealing a puppy from the bearish investors. He got everything else from them too.

http://postimg.org/image/5pxhf5nu3/

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:29 | 5236770 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

thank you

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 04:57 | 5237294 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. You're welcome, my pleasure.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 08:23 | 5237434 surf0766
surf0766's picture

.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 00:25 | 5237007 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Bangalore Fruit Bat; a certified left-hand threaded wing nut.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:18 | 5236045 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Masque of the Red Death" by Edgar Allan Poe

The entire short story for your pleasure, Hedgers

http://www.online-literature.com/poe/36/

 

And the 1964 movie with Vincent Price.....produce and directed by Roger Corman.  Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCazBlhBs_Q

 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:18 | 5236061 starman
starman's picture

Looks like Ebola and Ali baba are on the break out! 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:42 | 5236323 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

time for madagascar to shut... down... EVERYTHING

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:06 | 5236380 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

And then, O'drama-care will usher a FL made RF ID microchip for all the US insured, just to make sure we know who you are and how you feeling today...

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:00 | 5236552 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

No, no; we need the money for the liver-eating "moderate rebels" in Syria.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:05 | 5236865 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

And remeber the more people infected means more people who may have been infected went up exponentially.  We are seeing the start of a pandemic.

 

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 05:59 | 5237325 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Aww shucks. 3000 USTroops can handle this, now stop this nonsense,I have to worry about politically incorrect NFL Football players...

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 10:55 | 5237629 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Didn't you hear? The defense department found $500 million sitting around that they could spare. Apparently that is small change to the pentagon that they find in the couch cushions.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:20 | 5235397 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Finally, another ebola story.  Only 2630 dead after a month of untreated cases roaming the streets of the shittiest, dirtiest slum in Liberia.  I just don't see how this can be very contagious. 

 

Sucks to be poor in west Africa, but if it was really contagious we'd be reading about hundreds of thousands of cases by now.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:22 | 5235420 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

its actually fairly contagious apparently from the hazmat healthcare workers contracting it but the question is what is its real mortality rate with reasonable medical care and that appears to be no worse than 20%.........a far cry from the 50-90% reported earlier

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:25 | 5235436 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Which of those qualifiers says those workers actually knew what they were doing?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:42 | 5235520 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Even the WHO admits that these numbers are a minimum, not a realistic estimate, which is probably some multiple of reported cases.  In many areas there are simply no medics, connected to the outside to report much of anything.

From the map the Tylers put up a couple of threads back, it is clear the disease must be in Mali and Ivory Coast by now, but they have yet to report any cases.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 16:11 | 5235639 Jena
Jena's picture

This is an interesting article about case fatality rate for this outbreak. It explains that the lag-adjusted CFR is running about 85%, which is something that can't be realized in the early part of an epidemic.

 

http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/estimating-fatality-2014-...

 

Sobering.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 17:20 | 5235882 phaedrus1952
phaedrus1952's picture

informative link, Jenna. Thanks.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:15 | 5236354 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. It's not a joke. A friend of mine in southern India was reading a "STORY" about eboma on the Internet and he fucking caught it. Just like that!! Dead 9 days later.

So listen, be careful out there. I put Saran Wrap around my computer when I get to the eboma stories. Just a heads Up.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:40 | 5236484 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Fatality rate "only" 20%.  One in five.

Do you know what the rate is for the flu?  You know, the one we panic over every winter in the USSA, line up for our shots, spend squillions of dollars fighting?  It's about one in 300,000.

"Only" 20%.  Fucking idiot.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:53 | 5236529 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Dog. The reason that the USSA beat the panic drums is so they can "CREATE" fear. Then everyone line up for shots. Then CIA "InjectsTheVenom" into you.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 10:17 | 5237553 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Why all the downvotes on this?  It's obviously accurate.  Flu is big business.  Many documented cases of intentionally-adulterated vaccines (look up tetanus and birth control vaccine).  He leaves out empire-builing on the part of government and semi-government organizations, but he's right on the money.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 10:39 | 5237588 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. I bought some Alibaba stock, made a "PROFIT", and now public Zhememy #1. God Forbid.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:50 | 5236519 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Put Saran Wrap around your entire body. Start with your head so you can protect your vulnerable eyes, ears, nose and mouth. Make it air tight. Then you will be safe from Ebola, but more importantly Ebola will be safe from you.

If you are going to troll, make it funny. This is innane.

 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:55 | 5236534 knukles
knukles's picture

Would you like a curry Slurpee?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:14 | 5236741 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Is that a monkey raping a dog for his avatar?

Guess he is representing his countrymen well.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 07:00 | 5237356 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Creant. Man are you "GOOD" at the low "BLOWS". Anyhow, I don't know where all this nastiness is coming from. I sense a deep seated anger in your tone and it worries me because normally you are very good-natured.

I hope you are ok. If you're not, and you need to vent, by all means, attack me. I can take it.

When American enter that final state of "REALIZATION" during the "DISCOVERY" process, things can get hairy. Frustrations can build and the steam needs an outlet. I "GET" it.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 07:04 | 5237360 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. I took you off of my "IGNORE" list. You are my good friend and I dind't mean to say that but yesterday I celebrated because of BA BA and was intoxic and made a boo-boo so sorry. --Raj

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:55 | 5236535 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. That does it! I'm putting you on my "IGNORE" list.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:19 | 5236605 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

But would you please, please, put us all on your ignore list; like you know; go bother somebody else.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:16 | 5236894 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

And pick up the phone.

My laptop is down again.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:20 | 5236608 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Ah, MsCreant I detect a little irritation here, I think. I wish he would just stick his head in the toilet; if they have one there.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:20 | 5236902 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

They do, but they don't call it that.

I believe the word they use for it is "Ganges".

I think it's a bathtub too.
And a cemetery.
And a drinking source,

Sounds pretty hi tech.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:23 | 5236616 sjb
sjb's picture

Put some Saran Wrap around your head.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:29 | 5236627 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen. The boo-boo "BEARS" must be pissed by Asians making bank and driving your market higher. Don't hate.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:58 | 5236191 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

CFR. How appropriate.

Really, though, how many of them will get the cure? I'd bet, at this point, most of the CFR membership are just ass-kissers, and aren't wanted anyway.

Oh, the irony, to help plan and promote a significant piece of the global Eugenics plan, and then told they and their families are not getting the cure. I'd like to see their faces when they get that email.

Fuck 'em.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:42 | 5235523 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

the Western docs and nurses DID know and still contracted it. Don't dismiss it as a lowly contagious disease...its not.......It will very likely be here by January maybe earlier. The question will be how much FEAR it injects into our JIT delivery systems. NOT saying it will bring it down but it is very possible. Something that must be considered in a highly concentrated, counter-dependent supply/delivery chain. IT is contagious and will come here.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 15:52 | 5235574 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Where do you get your "205" mortality figure?

 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 16:04 | 5235615 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

20% is a guess based on seeing how a relatively small number of Western health care workers that contracted it survived without ventilatory support in Africa. They only had IV hydration and oxygen and made it through the respiratory phase which tells me its survivable IF you are healthy. Comorbities will be a problem for those that contract it here and their mortality rate will be higher. 20% in a healthy population is still high and will inject fear.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 16:09 | 5235635 Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Prez obalo is working hard to hit those numbers

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 09:06 | 5237484 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If you or someone you know has ebola....please phone the state department for your free plane ride to the US.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:15 | 5235948 Dadburnitpa
Dadburnitpa's picture

Inject fear indeed.  As a comparison: The mortality rate of the 1918 Spanish flu is unknown, but estimated to have been 10 - 20 percent.  It killed an estimated 3 - 6 percent of the global population. A 3 percent die off today would be roughly 216 million over a period of a few years.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:49 | 5236338 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

"One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic."

   - Joseph Stalin

 

So what does that make over 4 billion?

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:17 | 5236417 knukles
knukles's picture

rounding error 3 digits to the right of the decimal place

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:23 | 5236615 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Almost enough.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 02:19 | 5237151 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It was revealed to him in a moment of divine inspiration. We can't question the works of God, can we !!

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 16:13 | 5235547 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

I'm guessing that the hazmat health workers who contracted the virus did not get it from infected human beings they were treating at work but from animal and other vectors in their off hours. In other words, they became new patient zeroes; perhaps from eating a piece of fruit or from being exposed to some bat guano on the street. The longer this epidemic lasts, the more I tend to think that it isn't really as contagious as once feared and that the survival rate with decent preexisting health and decent medical care would go up dramatically.

None of this should be construed to mean that I would readily volunteer to expose myself to Ebola; I still remain concerned. But when you remember that ordinary influenza kills 120,000 people per year in America alone, it puts Ebola in a bit of a different perspective.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:30 | 5236097 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

It is an interesting thought. How many patients are in fact new patient Zeros? How many are getting it from the original non human source. What is that source and how wide spread is it? Those are questions not being asked. What looks likley in Africa is that Ebola burns itself out by infecting some and killing others until the ebola free population give ebola less room the thrive.

Health Care workers and doctors who take precautions, still seem to get ebola at an alarming rate.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 18:57 | 5236189 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

This is why I was absolutely aghast this virus was brought to the USA. We are not sure of our facts on transmission and this virus does seem to exist in an animal model. So we are giving an RNA virus, which is a mutating machine, the opportunity to find one here as well? There are no words to describe this. Stupidity, hubris, crimes against humanity?

Containment? Impossible! This is a highly infective virus. Perhaps a size comparison is in order here. If you imagine a bacterium the size of an elephant, a virus would be the size of a flea. An elephant is an easy target but who can shoot the flea on it? Technology is of little use here. The idea developing a vaccine against this monster knowing how it functions is very unlikely.The only choice is letting it burn out as it always had before and pray it doesn't find a new animal reservoir in which it can incorporate its RNA.

There is no reason to spend billions. That would be of little use but further
the spread as more interactions of the uninfected with the infected occur. I'm sorry this is so harsh. I wish it weren't so but there is simply no other way.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:16 | 5236233 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Thanks Miffed.  We may need "harsh" to save us.  To your point, from my reading so far, here are a few of the known animal vectors for hemorrhagic fevers:

Fruit Bats  - Africa

Fat Mice  - Bolivia

Pigs   (probable) - Indonesia

Brown Rats  -  Africa

Monkeys  - almost everywhere

It gets worse.  In tracking flu viruses, which are better known, many scientists now think ducks and geese, specificly their excrement, is the ultimate source, and is simply picked up by many other critters when they drink.  Good luck avoiding water fowl.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:00 | 5236363 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Migratory birds are a key spread for influenza. People don't realize how many animals it can recombine in resulting in Antigenic shift.

Antigenic drift, is the result of mutation over time of known strains of influenza (or other things, in a more general sense) which may lead to a loss of immunity, or in vaccine ineffectiveness. Influenza A virus is notorious for this and is primarily responsible for global pandemics.

I am not surprised we are being threatened by another RNA virus, Ebola. Well, if it doesn't pull it off, may be a novel coronavirus will step in. Seems like there is always a virus waiting to replicate in a susceptible population and we humans make it too easy. It's sad and a bit embarrassing when the sentient loses to a viral particle.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:11 | 5236881 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

Looking at this epidemic from the standpoint of RNA Thread Viri, the earth is a big ball of water surrounding land filled with meat.  Humans.  Bags of cells.  Ebola has no instinct, no drive other than burrowing into meat and hijacking the cellular apparatus to reproduce itself in a very efficient manner - one particle becomes millions in an incredibly short time.

Ebola Zaire has gotten loose in a packed meat house - any major city in Africa.  And there are aircraft coming and going to and from Africa every hour of every day.  Only an 18% chance of Ebola in America by Santa season ??  Good luck.  Wonder what the London bookies have for odds.

The math is the truly scary part.  Consider - doubling every three weeks (21 days).  Six doublings between now and the end of the year - look at a calendar.  That is 64 times the present number of what, 5,350 ...  lessee now, that's

Great Fucking Chinese - that's Three Hundred Thousand infected (342,400) !!! And that's just based on historical numbers over the last few months that are under-reported due to slow or missing communication.  It's Africa.  Listening to the drums can be slow, but when the drummer dies, no word gets out.

Be afraid enough to be prepared.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:16 | 5236414 LibertarianMenace
LibertarianMenace's picture

A biosphere without viruses would be like trying to run the internet without using a network. That's what we're up against here. We're attempting to oppose and/or shut down a basic (and necessary) system function: the natural world's communication channel. Ain't going to happen. Preparing for the consequences of the inevitable spread of this disease beyond Africa and to these shores is more prudent at this point. 

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:49 | 5236516 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen, jezz us. That "SOUNDS" so scary. Wow, you USSA guys are all so smart about every things. I'm all ears.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:56 | 5236542 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh, please contract Ebola and fucking die

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:08 | 5236583 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Knuckles. Not yet, too much work to do still.

http://postimg.org/image/5pxhf5nu3/

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 22:04 | 5236711 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Wow.

Nice baby pic.

You're lucky you dont look like your Mom.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:26 | 5236621 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

take up another hobby that involves manual dexterity, but no thoiught process, like knitting; for instance. You're not very good at this one.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 23:26 | 5236912 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

Or jerking off.

Just do it somewhere else.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 21:55 | 5236678 LibertarianMenace
LibertarianMenace's picture

Aw c'mon Bangy I did say prepare for "beyond Africa." That includes India doesn't it? Now you should appreciate that your USSA betters stooped to consider even misshapen wretches like you.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 19:04 | 5236214 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

"How many patients are in fact new patient Zeros?"

As many as they can create, the sooner the better. Hence 3,000 innocents being sent to Africa with no real equipment, no real plan and no clue.

Same with sending thousands of Nigerian Muslims to the Hajj:

http://m.allafrica.com/stories/201409082233.html/?maneref=http%3A%2F%2Fw...

Thousands of potentially infected Nigerians, sent into the middle of the largest mass gathering of humans yearly on the planet. Around 3 million people, who have flown in from every corner of the globe.

It only takes one. If this wasn't intentional, the Saudis would tell the Nigerians those planes will be shot down as soon as they're in range. No, they're being welcomed in with open arms.

Fri, 09/19/2014 - 20:18 | 5236422 tvdog
tvdog's picture

1,000 ebola cases would completely overwhelm the health care system in the United States, given the intensive treatment/isolation required.

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