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Spanish Bond Risk Rises As Catalan Referendum "Dialog" Heats Up
Early kneejerk exuberance in Cable and European bond risk is rapidly unwinding as the reality of a revolting youth raise concerns over social stability. Nowhere is that more evident than in Spain this morning as pro-Catalan independence supporters push the government for a referendum on their secession in November:
- *CATALANS SAYING LOUDLY BUT GENTLY THEY WANT TO DECIDE: MAS
- *SPAIN GOVT OPEN TO DIALOG, HAS TO COMPLY WITH LAW: SAENZ
- *REFERENDUMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE IN SPANISH LAW, DEPUTY PM SAYS
Catalan President Artur Mas says it is a mistake to think the Scottish "No" votes casts a shadow over Catalonia and is threatening Rajoy if he blocks the vote. Spanish bond risk is up 12bps off the lows of the day.
As Bloomberg notes,
- *MAS SAYS SCOTS-STYLE REFERENDA ONLY WAY TO RESOLVE CONFLICTS
- *MAS SAYS CATALONIA PUSHING ON WITH INDEPENDENCE VOTE
- *MAS SAYS MISTAKE TO THINK SCOTS NO CASTS SHADOW OVER CATALONIA
- *MAS SAYS BLOCKING VOTES CREATES DIVISIONS
- *MAS SAYS RAJOY IS FUELING CATALANS' AVERSION TO SPANISH STATE
- *MAS SAYS HE'LL CALL MEETING OF ALLIES IF RAJOY BLOCKS VOTE
- *MAS SAYS RAJOY CAN'T HOLD BACK CATALANS JUST WITH LAW
But, the government says...
- *SCOTS VOTED ACCORDING TO LEGALLY ESTABLISHED PROCESS: SAENZ
- *REFERENDUMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE IN SPANISH LAW, DEPUTY PM SAYS
- *SPAIN GOVT OPEN TO DIALOG, HAS TO COMPLY WITH LAW: SAENZ
So change it...
- *CATALANS SAYING LOUDLY BUT GENTLY THEY WANT TO DECIDE: MAS
- *CATALONIA WANTS TO HOLD VOTE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPAIN: MAS
- *REFERENDUM WOULD SOLVE CATALAN QUESTION, MAS SAYS
The Reaction - spanish bond risk is rising...
and Cable has roundtripped last night's gains as new policies are better understood
* * *
It appears this secession movement is far from over...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Go Catalonia go!
(I am now looking at you Flanders and Südtirol.)
Must comply with law... isn't this the popular american phrase? Fuck law, Catalonia go!
USSA is the exceptional country, laws do not apply to us because we ARE the law, LOL.
Groups of individuals can always choose to reject tyranny and the laws constructed by the tyrants.
Catalans want it more than the Scots.
I just love Rajoy using the law as an excuse given his party's track record.
In any case, the law (ideally) is there to serve the interests and aspirations of the people. It is not there to serve the interests of the political and monied classes.
And lets us not forget Italy where Venice has recently voted to go off on its own. Italy is the third largest economy of the Euro-zone after Germany and France, unfortunately it holds the largest public debt totaling over 2 trillion euro. This debt has been growing at an astonishing pace, even in more recent times and particularly as a ratio to GDP. The fact that the GDP is contracting has exacerbated the problem.
This is not sustainable and the country is held together only because of the direct intervention of the ECB which made over 102 billion euro of Italian bond purchases in 2011-2012 alone. This has continued since then and the sum has gotten much larger. Only through the LTRO can the finances of the Italian state be kept afloat. For more on how government debt has made Italy the Achilles heel of Europe see the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/italy-achilles-heel-of-europe.htm...
This has nothing to do with rising nationalism as the media want to present the situation as. This is about people fed up with big government that refuses to cut down on its spending and resorting to over taxation and blatant trampling of all rights in order to enforce it. This is about people trying to rid themselves of financially oppressive governments. If they are not allowed to break away peacefully, then they will eventually break away violently.
Catalan breaking away!! Sign me up to be the next new citizen....
At least the English let the Scots vote, knowing they would beat them in the end but it was a Pyrrhic victory since they now have to give Scots powers that they had not wanted to grant them.
The Spaniards know that the Catalans just might choose independence if they could . The only way they can solve the situation is to give Catalonia the same deal as the Basque Autonomous Community and Navarre have. Or send in the tanks. In view of Spanish methods of governing, the latter is the most likely option though, in my opinion, an ultimate futile one.
In the meantime, Rajoy will stick to keeping his head in the sand until the situation becomes untenable.
Besides, tampering with the vote results would never happen in the Western World... Right?
It's already 1-0 to the globalists. the score MUST be evened.
And then there was "one"!
Sorry, but the problem with Catalonia is the same as with Scotland. Both independence parties are left-wing, which people trust less and less. Both parties want their newly independent country to join the EU.
Same shite, as the Scots would say.
Lea, please don't put matters in the blender before you serve them. Let's take Scotland as example. The SNP is a conservative party, and wants independence. Their opponents are Labour, which is a left-wing party that does not want to leave the UK. Let's leave the thing about who people trust more and less aside, why do you think a conservative party can't be pro-EU?
As a reminder, the new EU "honcho-in-chief" (aka head of the Commission) is a conservative, who was the conservative PM of his country, and was appointed by the European People's Party (EPP), the biggest conservative political platform in Europe (the second biggest is the socialists, which are our left-wingers)
How can one be a conservative and an EU supporter at the same time?
Explain that to me. Seems like different shades of "Left" than a true difference between the parties.
Could it be that in the "European Union" there is this faux right/left paradigm like we have in the USSA? Yeup.
I would venture to say the people pulling the strings in the US are the same ones pulling the strings in the "EU" as well.
Haus, what is the EU? Primarily, one huge bloody regulatory environment. Instead of 28 bloody national regulatory environments
go to Florida, there you will see that beer cans are to be sold only in certain sizes. go to NY, you'll find the Mayor prohibiting certain other sizes
in the EU, we agreed to make shared decisions about this kind of crap. Now why should any conservative be against that? The classic conservative here is a small or medium entrepreneur... like me, actually. Have you any idea how difficult different regulatory environments can be for business, particularly when not Big Biz?
further, we don't really have a right/left paradigm, here, not the way the US has one, which actually is a political duopoly
You know that in Germany you find conservatives, socialists, social-democrats, greens, brownies, pirates, liberals and Alternative. And you know that the EU is not the eurozone, then you support the AfD, which is mildly pro-EU and anti-EUR
of course there are interests that push (not pull) our governments. but this is a completely different matter, and we push each other, too, and others, too, and sometimes we even push back Uncle Sam or Uncle Wei or Uncle Vladimir
now you tell me why a conservative can't be at least a mild supporter of the EU
Economic conditions in Catalan are much worse than in Scotland
This is why the situation is FAR more interesting. Young adult unemployment north of 25% means there are a lot of physically able bodies with nothing to do all day. Imagine Spain as 1 massive prison yard.
people pay to go to Spain and do nothing the whole day. they call it vacations
Lea shows crass ignorance when claiming that the main independence parties are leftist. Esquerra Republicana might be but NOBODY in Catalonia thinks Convergència i Unió is a left-wing party. They were always making nice deals with the right-wing PP party in Madrid when Aznar was in power .
CiU might be left-wing in the USA, like PP, but not in Spain or, indeed, Europe. The Democratic Party would be considered an ultra right-wing party in Europe. As for the Republicans ... they would not be known as the GOP but as the GHP, the Golden Horde Party since they have more in common with 12th Mongols than 21st century Europeans.
I think a common motivation for these disintegration impulses is the idea that it will enable a stealth default by groups that feel they carry an unfair debt load. It may well do so in a sense, but the increased governance overhead will negate any benefit.