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The Big Picture For Gold And Silver

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With precious metals back at 4-year lows against a backdrop of gold migration from west to east, paper vs physical divergences, 'disappearing' Comex positions, dark pools in London, collateral grabs, and massive monetary policy extremist actions; we thought the following two presentations worth considering. Tocqueville's John Hathaway delves into the darker corners of today's gold markets while Mike Maloney reminds us of the big picture behind gold and silver as wealth insurance. The failure of a monetary system is never a smooth road - it is rocky and undulating, with twists and turns that don't appear on any map. But the destination is always without question, despite suppression efforts: Gold will inevitably respond to an expanding fiat currency supply. That simple.

 

Tocqueville's John Hathaway asks (and answers) "Do You Know Where YOUR Gold Is" as he explains how counterparty and systemic risk will converge and the various dark and murky corners of the precious metals markets in which manipulation grows unchecked...

 

John Hathaway Tocqueville Keynote

 

*  *  *

And Mike Maloney explains the big picture for gold and silver in the clip below...

 

*  *  *

Simply put,

We are living through unprecedented times, and if there is one lesson to keep in mind it is this: The failure of a monetary system is never a smooth road paved with gold. It is rocky and undulating, with twists and turns that don't appear on any map.

 

But the destination is always without question: Gold inevitably responds to an expanding fiat currency supply. That simple.

 

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Sat, 09/20/2014 - 22:35 | 5239428 So Close
So Close's picture

Musical chairs... just waiting for the tide to go out and see who was wearing a bathng suit and who was swimming naked.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 22:41 | 5239438 Bindar Dundat
Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:50 | 5239562 Manthong
Manthong's picture

In the 90’s I could not understand why my shiny was depressed at only $300/400 an ounce.

In the 20 teens I know precisely why it is at production level.

Invest and insure wisely.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:01 | 5239578 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

Yep, TPTB are still too powerful, and the precious metals markets are still too small.

Thus they will manipulate easily... and get away with it.

We definitely need a crash!

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:09 | 5239594 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

its coming..

too bad i know where my PM's are at...

its a terrible story about this boat trip on this lake... :(

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:03 | 5239651 Arius
Arius's picture

Martin Armstrong model had pointed last week as the turning point ...

 

right on ... just on the other side

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:44 | 5239684 synergize
synergize's picture

Well this guy does an excellent job of calculating costs to mine gold and its showing that at these prices miners are going bankrupt.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2492875-complete-second-quarter-gold-all-in-costs-show-that-peak-gold-may-be-a-reality

Either we will have a higher gold price soon or most miners will go bankrupt - then we'll have a higher gold price when there is no more mine supply.  I'll take that!

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:28 | 5239738 The Doofus
The Doofus's picture

In 2015, gold will be less than $800 an ounce.  Don't shoot the messenger.  Metal has peaked.  And the dollar is king.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 03:43 | 5239806 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

stop link to your lame 4 pages 70 readers  blog, you sux man.

 

go hang yourself.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:03 | 5239984 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

ALL those trillions of dollars are king?

yeah right, because everyone knows that when there is an abundance of something it is worth more. /s

 

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:35 | 5240028 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

It's a boomerang with a sharpened edge, like Odd Job's hat. The "strong dollar" illusion is easily accomplished against the basket case Yen and suppressed Euro. Who would have ever believed that the Swiss Franc would capitulate to this nonsense? When the dollar moonshots during the next crisis ("run to safety!" LOLOL), it's lights out for the US economy. Remember when the objective was to "kill" the dollar? Yeah, not so much...

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:00 | 5240080 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Reference: John Hathaway hisself in Dubai:

http://youtu.be/OsuE6R9BqBQ

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:57 | 5240372 LawyerScum
LawyerScum's picture

yeah, but my $20 bill is backed by the "full faith and credit of the United States Government".  I mean, with that kind of rock solid backing how could it possibly...oh shit.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:50 | 5240359 indygo55
indygo55's picture

"And the dollar is king"

This guy has been here 1 week 4 days. Hummmm. Wadya think hes a troll? Im surprised he didnt say buy stocks.


Sun, 09/21/2014 - 12:55 | 5240498 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Lots of paid trolls on every metals site as well.  But who's paying them? 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:03 | 5240509 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

He has been here longer than that. He changed his name 1 week and 4 days ago.

 

I have seen his pattern of posing (NO TYPO) and I just ignore his posts. I will not bother to click his link to his lame blog.

 

He is not trolling. He is spamming his blog.

 

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 10:13 | 5240173 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

I wouldn't be surprised if the same wealthy people secretly buying up physical will also follow through with buying the miners on the cheap as well. Now we are learning the game......maybe.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:51 | 5240363 tonyw
tonyw's picture

most of the minor miners are just a hope job, hoping for more dumb investors to keep investing so the main guys can keep taking out and not doing any actual mining.

They don't have real or sufficient deposits with the necessary infrastructure.

 

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:52 | 5239566 DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

Whatever. I'd rather make money than be right. When I get paid in gold and food, I will reevaluate my priorities.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:11 | 5239596 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I dunno..

Maybe you are right .

..and maybe it would be better for someone to do the little teeny bopper next door than to be right.

Or maybe sex with twat mouth Jamie Dimon could be profitable.

Or, heck, maybe selling children into slavery is a cool way to get by.

I just don’t know anymore.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:26 | 5239668 DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

Nice try dipshit.

Neighbors and slaves will not be affected by how I make money.

Keep your boom box and crack pipe off my front lawn and we will be fine.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:16 | 5240000 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

DJ, do you even know the difference between money and currency?

You think those bank notes are actually money??

LOL take one out of you wallet and read it. "Federal Reserve Note"

they've created trillions of them from nothing...that's not money

go ahead, run faster on your hamster wheel, you'll be fine.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:28 | 5240552 actionjacksonbrownie
actionjacksonbrownie's picture

Actually, if DJ can re-evaluate his priorities at the correct moment, then he is wise to continue making money while all the stackers continue to "be right".

 

That's a very big "IF"

 

However, this game has gone on for a century, and could go on for another century (or another week). We could all be worm food before DJ needs to re-evaluate.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 15:44 | 5240919 Joe Trader
Joe Trader's picture

A win-win scenario for someone who likes gold and high returns on capital are to buy calculated amounts of gold - while using the rest of your capital to earn an income - part of which can be used to buy more gold. There's truths to both sides. Trading NUGT/DUST & then pumping some of your profits back into physical gold - I think is the best thing to do.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:25 | 5240008 messymerry
messymerry's picture

I've met some pretty nasty people DJ that were really good at getting other people's money, by hook or by crook.  Yes, money is "a" measure of success.  One of many...  I don't consider it the most reliable indicator because I've had to deal with some real scum that had piles of the stuff.

Trust and confidence are the pillars of a successful monetary system, and trust and confidence are in the toilet.

Perhaps you might be willing to share with us dipshits here at ZH just exactly why trust and confidence are in the toilet.

Have a nice day...

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:21 | 5240009 dicksburnt
dicksburnt's picture

Neighbors and slaves will not be affected by how I make money

I'm pretty sure by your attitude you're one of those at the top of the ponzi scheme and I am quite positive we will all be affected.   When that day comes those at the top of the ponzi will be given the final "bon voyage" by those at the bottom.  

 

History repeating  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpqYPBi6iHI

 

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:54 | 5240065 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

We see how you make your money, your knees scars provide the evidence.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:29 | 5240118 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

I guess that at this point any discussion of an absolute morality as a finite absolute is completely futile. Sad things is, it's not just wasted on DJ, but on a lot of posters around here.

Ayn Rand wasn't right about everything.

"Live like C.S. Lewis, govern like Ayn Rand."

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:37 | 5240133 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Someday you will realize that all of that "money" was created on the backs of slave labor - yours.  You will be paying off the national debt for the rest of your life, plus interest.  So will your kids and their kids and their kids and...

Every dollar of profit you make is a dollar out of the pockets of the future.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:01 | 5239976 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Dundat,

Don't listen this this CDC bullshit. It's just another USSA agency that got it's budget cut and now has a "POSSIBLE" crISIS so it will "HOWL" at the moon and maybe, just maybe, the CDC "DIRECTORS" will be able to skim the till and live like "NSA FATCATS". Ooh la la so sexy.

This virus "WILL" burn itself out. Maybe in 200 years it will evolve to be a "MASS" murderer. But it will take many mutations(natural and man-made) for it to become truly threatening to the entire globe.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:30 | 5240124 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

You speak with some assuredness...

Or just as someone who's convinced we're on the "flat" part of the curve. Hope you're right.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:37 | 5240578 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

I hope he is right too!  I have been following the numbers and getting some info from on the ground sources and yes they will be able to keep it contained to under a billion infected.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:38 | 5240134 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Exactly how many people have to die for it to be considered a mass murderer?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:47 | 5240144 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Replacement,

I will not be called a racist.

Show me one, just one large city or smaller country where the African-Americans have immigrated to(-->), changed it to suit their taste and culture, and it thrived and changed into the greatest place in the world.

I rest my case. Unchallenged.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:56 | 5240356 hobopants
hobopants's picture

I hear Bangalore is a thriving afro american city.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 15:15 | 5240824 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Pants.

Let me be real clear here: How would you like to get your throat slit by a Furgenson Mo. USSA Nagar?

We would literally eat them for breakfast and throw their endtrails into the Ganges. Sweeney Todd style.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sundar_Nagar
Lost in translation.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 15:04 | 5244077 tradebot
tradebot's picture

That's Bang - a - whore

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:23 | 5240530 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It will ravage India with the density of populations in their cities. It only takes one Indaian businessman to fly in from West Central Africa and become "Patient Zero"

 

Hell the Pakistanis will not even have to nuke you. They will just need to cordon sanitaire the Khyber Pass.

 

If you want your Ebola then you can keep your Ebola.

 

Looking forward to our mutually assured destruction.

 

Yes. I am MAD...a mad scientist at that.

 

(The stereotype of the short bald headed man really does not apply. That is only true in cartoons...something which you seem to want to entertain yourself with. I left that fantasyland behind a long time ago. But...You??? You can knock yourself out if you so desire.)

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 15:25 | 5240860 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Tom, let me be real clear here. You wanna go at me man-to-man cause I don't think you want to go there.

"cordon sanitaire the Khyber Pass". I'll rip your heart out threw your left nostril and I don't care if you have it Superglued!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK1C5YdzVkc

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:49 | 5239637 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

You may be right, but I don't accept the premise of your argument.

I contend that if you bought PM as a "Store of Value" (against Currency debauchery/inflation), then the "geniuses" at ZH and other gold sites have led you terribly astray.

I'd also argue that most arguments for buying PM was for this reason and (by extension) for Speculation. ZH and its gold shills did NOT ring an Early Warning Alarm against a huge price reversal due to the huge, persistent and organized Manipulation that we've seen and was (in principle) foreseeable.

We/ZH didn't foresee it or flag it, because the "experts" were "psychologically blindsided".

/ Let the denial, dissing and junking begin, because "Our camp/side is NEVER wrong and how DARE you to point out our mistakes? / sarc"

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:12 | 5239718 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

$4.35/oz in 2000 was a twenty year low; so obviously no one should have bought it. The name of the game is Futures; not Pasts.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 10:11 | 5240168 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

How about 8 bucks for a barrel of oil.

That still seems like too much to me.

So does ten cents a gallon for gasoline.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 06:54 | 5239913 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Well said Kirk.

Lot of psuedo-intellectuals around here aint so smart now.

Dont gamble with more you can afford... always.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:42 | 5240304 hobopants
hobopants's picture

The only way you could have messed up buying metals is if you did it with leverage...otherwise it's a dip. I'm confused on what kind of timeframe you guys are working on here?

I mean do you honestly expect them to rocket to the moon while the world is still in love (denial) with the market and the dollar?

It's a long term investment based off of the logical position that a bunch of insolvent sovereigns are going to do what they always do to their paper currency (which has so far been right).

But shit play around and "Make money" in the market if that's your thing, I'm sure you'll know when to get out.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:35 | 5240131 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

No and Yes.

I NEVER bought PMs as a speculation; I bought consistently as insurance against a currency collapse starting in 1988.

I also NEVER thought the Central Banks could keep this manipulation going like they have. My normalcy bias was that there would be a regulator or at least a restraining force that would balance things out by now. China and/or Russia will be that force. Still just a matter of time.

+ 1/2

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:27 | 5239737 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Maloney the Baloney; another fast talker selling newsletters.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 22:39 | 5239435 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

noise. 'deflation' doesnt mean things are getting cheaper, things you need will still go up in price. what it means is the velocity of money is slowing. deflation means a drop in prices of commodities, including gold and silver. it also means death to the institutions who depend on ever-expanding debt, which includes the dollar, which is a debt-based currency. So, the question is, how will central banks react to this deflation, and what will this reaction mean to those of us who hold real money?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:38 | 5239633 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Ad in the flyer for a national hardware store chain this week…

Note that 1.5 inch low sticky painters tape is now 1.41 inches wide and 2.00 inch tape is now 1.88 inches.

No inflation there. Nope. None at all.  

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 14:01 | 5240636 GernB
GernB's picture

Why is it everyone forgets the other side of the coin. For a debt based currency to expand, someone has to have enough faith in currency manipulators to borrow. When faith in the fed evaporates deflation will be the inevitable and unavoidable consequence.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 22:41 | 5239439 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

seems like I am naked but my metals are still intact if I don't sell them my physical is all there

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 22:46 | 5239448 notadouche
notadouche's picture

I only believe the long lost talking bears.  I fear they have been rendered.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:23 | 5239613 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Rendered irrelevant? .. or just plain rendered..  LOL :-D

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:09 | 5239472 hotrod
hotrod's picture

 

Gold inevitably responds to an expanding fiat currency supply. That simple.

 

IN 1980 the US national debt was 1 trillion.  Today it is 18 trillion.  There are appx. 1000 billionaires today(not counting Jack Ma).  None in 1980.

Gold reached an appx. high of 850 in 1980.  Today it is 1200.

 

Has gold really kept up with expanding money supply???????????

The Dow has kept up.  It is up 17-18 times where it was around 1980.

The reality is Gold has been very disappointing, and is not close to reflecting the huge monetary expansion.  I am a gold advocate but the facts are the facts. It is very frustrating yet obvious where the Fed/bankers/Companys want the inflated money to go.  Financial Assets.     Jack Ma loves that Alibaba was bid to the sky.  Gold restricts the money supply.  I doubt the Stock Market would be 65 trillion had gold still been backing the dollar and other fiat currencys.

 

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:23 | 5239611 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Lets wait a bit and see what happens when the physical gold exchanges start really ramping up their operations.  It is going to be very interesting to see who wins the price control battle for the gold and silver markets in the near future.  If the price control shifts to Asia, as I suspect it will, the days of easy PM market manipulation achieved by the dumping of billions of dollars worth of paper gold and/or silver...regardless of price and often inside of mere minutes or less... will come to an abrupt end. 

Paper gold and silver vs. physical gold and silver.  It will be a short fight.

I see a shit load of kicking and screaming on the horizon.  

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:27 | 5239622 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The tell will be the day when the east makes the COMEX stand and deliver.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:44 | 5239639 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Indeed.  The very high OI in silver right now (which has held despite the near constant price attacks) may be the COMEX´s fiscal Fukushima.  It´s all but obvious that it must be the Chinese who are holding strong.  Who else is capable of absorbing that kind of pain. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:51 | 5239644 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well, me for one.. hit me again, it feels so good.

But.. I think oil/gold is the key ratio.

After (whatever) energy will reset and that is when PM/s as a scarce commodity re-acquires traditional value.

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:59 | 5239701 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Chaps...what if once the Chinese wrestle control of the pricing of physical they then replicate the same ETF nonsense because it clearly captures vast quantities of capital?

I'm no expert...just a curious stacker?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:38 | 5240029 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Shanghai is not the only physical market.  If they were to start up the paper game again, they risk finding themselves without customers.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:38 | 5240577 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Exactly.

 

The reason for the price decline in contracts at the Comex is the opening of the Shanghai Physical Market.

 

The Comex is levered 50 to one whereas the Shanghai is not levered at all. A Shanghai contract is a superior product as it is fully backed by PHYSICAL.

 

A contract which is not enforceable has a real value of ZERO. That is really what the price of a Comex contract shoud have...ZERO.

 

You will see further price declines on Comex Paper because there IS NO FUCKING GOLD BACKING THEM.

 

The Physical Gold is now in the East. FOFOA was correct in his musings more than a decade ago, The price of Gold will decline to ZERO...on the Comex.

 

Any fool whom wants to sell Physical Gold into the decline of Comex Paper has got a screw loose. You may just as well give it away to the Chinese and Russians.

 

This is the End Game being played out.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 03:48 | 5239808 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

you see dreams, time to wake up.

 

not gonna happen. usa kill when threated. usa do not respond after beeing hit, but before. ( forget 9-11 ) china issue before fiat collapse. inevitable.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:12 | 5239994 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The "miners" will win. The theory that "the cost of production" is
just that...a THEORY.

Even worse is the theory of low prices causing bankruptcy.

Outside of Detroit how many bankruptcies have we actually had?

Greece? That's about it near as I can tell.

Gold will always be found at any price...just never at a fixed price to a currency.

ANY currency.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 14:06 | 5240646 GernB
GernB's picture

All that is needed is for China to announce they are going to back their currency with gold and the dollar is done.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:26 | 5239656 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Bullshit!!! If there's one thing that PM price manipulation has taught us, it's that...

"NOTHING is assured or guaranteed". Hedge accordingly.

p.s. If I'd "invested" in PM mining stock every time that guys like Porter Stansbury & Co. or Doug Casey's guys advised me to (in their emails), I'd be flat broke.

I've re-learned to ignore ALL shills and (snake oil) salesmen, and that "I shall heed my own counsel", i.e... Diversify or perish!

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:18 | 5239725 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I am innocent in your suffering; never, ever, did I advise anyone to buy a STOCK. A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it and a Banker behind him. Now you know better.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:37 | 5240157 oddjob
oddjob's picture

I told people to buy First Majestic at $4, not sure how people could have lost money on that one.

Trolls like Kirk that joined ZH a full 2+ years after any tops in PM prices have to be taken with a grain of salt, its akin to kicking somebody when they are down, that crew are not usually the brightest bulbs.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:16 | 5239721 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Time, Chipmunk, Time. You're leaving time out of your universe. Einstein taught us this is a big mistake; there are four dimensions, not three. "Has been disappointing refers to the past. Do you drive looking in the rear view mirror ? The name of the game is Futures, not Pasts.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:50 | 5239765 bardot63
bardot63's picture

<<<<Has gold really kept up with expanding money supply???????????<<<

Has the Dow and S&P really kept up with the true economy?  Or is the stock market keeping up with the lies and misinformation gov't feeds to CNBC and WSJ for the consumption of morons???   Gold is manipulated downward in price by criminal banks in collusion with the US Gov't, and the reason for the price suppression of gold is that the country is a helluva lot worse off than even  ZH reports day after day.   That suppression is coming to an end one day and when it does, it won't be pretty for anyone. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:23 | 5239945 FlacoGee
FlacoGee's picture

Your comments remind me of the justifications used for all bubbles.

"They are not making any more land"

"WebVan will deliver your shit to your house"

"Tulips are beautiful"

Gold/Silver were in a major bubble fueled by a declining value of the USD, massive ramp in price (speculation), and fear.

The fear is gone, the USD is strengthening, and the price has crashed (Silver more than gold).    Any other "investment" that went from $50 to $18 would be considered a massive blow off top and crash.    When Gold drops from 1900 to 1200 and soon to $500...   "great buying opportunity".

Rinse and repeat.   Bubbles are all the same.

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:11 | 5239930 FlacoGee
FlacoGee's picture

It took me a while to realize what you have written as I am a first generation gold bug who fell for the crap.  It was a hard lesson, but a lesson that has been learned.    The gold cheerleaders are spouting the same crap each decade and every 25 to 30 years they might be right, but it takes a new generation of suckers to get on board.    

Sadly, the same people who held from the 80's bubble, held through the 2000s bubble, and will be here in 25 years spouting the same things.   

For those "first generation" goldbugs reading this...   Gold forces you to turn into a negative person.   For gold to move you need war, currency collapse, financial collapse, strife, etc.    It is not a positive investment.    "I wonder if ebola will wipe of the world.  Maybe my gold will go up?"   "Will Russia kill all of Ukraine and NATO starts a nuclear war?  Maybe my gold will go up?"    "Will the USD collapse?  Mad Max gas wars?"

Gold was in a major bubble based on a weakening dollar, financial collapse, etc.     With the dollar streathening, people finally getting over the 2008 collapse, etc... there is not any upside for gold.     Silver will be back to $5 in a couple of years and Gold will be back to the $500 range in due time.    High AIC mines will be closed down and the overall AIC will decrease because Oil is going to crash on a stronger dollar.

The dollar is entering a phase of the "least ugly hooker"...    This will knock all commodities back to 2004 levels.   I know, I know, peak oil, ebola, gold scarcity, FEMA camps, etc. etc.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:39 | 5240136 jerry685
jerry685's picture

I think y0u very well could be right....This being said ..I do have some PM's.

If TPTB had a machine that made gold ...how hard would they fight to defend it....

I am thinking pretty hard....They do have ....They control the world through printing fiat...

They will not go easily into the night....

 

Most armies get paid in fiat.....They have fed the masses into the meat grinder of war before and will again

They will have no part in paying the butcher bill...

A crash in commodity prices will be pretty easy for them to create..

Juat as a global conflict will be..

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 10:34 | 5240197 HamFistedIdiot
HamFistedIdiot's picture

"Gold forces you to turn into a negative person. "

So I should invest in Pfizer instead? But doesn't all the Prozac we flush into the water supply make the fish hermaphroditic? Is feeling upbeat worth that price?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:55 | 5240616 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

@ FlacoGee, et al,

You are missing the point of holding PMs. They are not to make you rich, they are an insurance policy. Do you sink every penny you have into your homeowner's or car insurance? Of course not. Nor should you sink every cent you have into PM's. Just enough to let you sleep at night.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:07 | 5239485 mt paul
mt paul's picture

woof..

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:19 | 5239727 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I agree; woof, woof.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 05:50 | 5239885 MATA HAIRY
MATA HAIRY's picture

I disagree----woooooooof!

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:34 | 5239507 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

For those of us who follow (and actually read) fofoa none of this is unexpected. Here is what he has said.. and his writing is based upon other writers and a long look at monetary history, game theory and some just plain logic and clear definitions:

Gold is the focal point of the monetary world. Gold and only gold gold has been selected as the focal point for wealth storage. It will emerge as such but first the paper gold market must fail. As long as large players accept the promise of paper gold, someone will deliver that paper promise and the price of gold will remain low. It could go very low as those who currently hold paper gold start to get out.

We see the ECB has kept a large store of gold on its balance sheet. Should/when the dollar fail that balance sheet will explode even as the US Treasuries go to zero. Gold alone will the 'back' the Euro...physical gold. When the dust settles gold, in physical form only, will find a much higher price/purchasing power. It must because gold at $1200 cannot act to back stop all the worlds currency and store most of the world's wealth. A price of over $50,000 in 2009 dollars purchasing power is ball park of what we expect. This jump would only be slightly more than the jump in gold price between 1971 and 1980. It rose 24 fold then....$35 to over $850.

Due to changes in the monetary system a drop is not expected as gold will not have emerged from a bull market but will have found it's correct role as a wealth asset.

After 400 articles and 6 years that's the best few paragraph summary I can give.

Gold.....get some...soon.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:02 | 5239581 holdbuysell
Sun, 09/21/2014 - 03:55 | 5239814 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

 

 

world go digital, gold is not digital.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 05:33 | 5239877 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Yep, because every country in the world has access to computers, but dont have access to water right?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:12 | 5239996 deflator
deflator's picture

 A couple of 13 y/o kids were standing on the sidewalk near my house and one of them was holding his hands cupped together. The other kid was looking into the cupped hands and asked, "what is it"? the other kid said, "Ethiopian water". There was nothing in his hands.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:27 | 5239518 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Slide 5:

"•All bars brought into the vault for deposit are carefully weighed, and the refiner andfineness (purity) markings on the bars are inspected to ensure they agree with the depositor instructions and recorded in the New York Fed’s records. This step is vital because the New York Fed returns the exact bars deposited by the account holder upon withdrawal—gold deposits are not considered fungible."

If I remember correctly, as was described in the media, the bars delivered to Germany were not the same as those deposited. Not fungible, my ass.

WTF!

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:33 | 5239535 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Peak Ponzi and Anti-Ponzi

http://winteractionables.com/?p=14770

 

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:43 | 5239544 wanderintheland
wanderintheland's picture

Good article, russ.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:09 | 5239714 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

I´ll second that!  Silver OI raises Friday by 3,776 contracts to 177,289 regardless of the fiscal backpack nuke attack on the price!  There are emergency meetings taking place this weekend.  I smell absolute desperation.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:20 | 5239728 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

And what, exactly does this Open Interest indicate; would you explain it to the rest of us, please.?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 06:13 | 5239894 russwinter
russwinter's picture

If this was a liquidation of longs you would see futures contracts closed out by sales. A long contract that is sold, eliminates that particular contract. Instead the OI climbed. Open interest is the total futures contracts outstanding. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:18 | 5240101 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

so if i put on a short position because price had broken out to new 4 year lows, would that not increase the open interest?  

STFATL

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:21 | 5240280 CHX
CHX's picture

So, more metal-IOUs for metal that can't be delivered. That's a good thing ?

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:57 | 5239547 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The LBMA numbers are off by multiple orders of magnitude!!! 9,000 tons is closer to $353 billion than to $413 million (daily volume. Annually the number is in the trillions and  NOT 99 billion...not even close to being 'just a little off.'

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:43 | 5239550 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Queue anti-metal dicks with ad hominem attacks in
3...2...1...

....as far as I am concerned, if you trade paper metals, you forward slavery to the corrupt System.

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:48 | 5239553 homiegot
homiegot's picture

Bagholders...I'll send you a silver dollar and a newslestter to show you how confident I am blah blah blah....

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:25 | 5239947 FlacoGee
FlacoGee's picture

Bagholders that also enjoy catching knives.    Great combination.

 

 

Sat, 09/20/2014 - 23:59 | 5239577 r00t61
r00t61's picture

Slide 18 says that US has the most gold in the world, and that it stores it mostly at Ft. Knox.

Does any sane person actually believe this?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:02 | 5239583 homiegot
homiegot's picture

It says so in my gold and silver newsletter.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:22 | 5239729 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I would be willing to believe it; if I counted it myself. but as it is; no, I really don't think so.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:00 | 5239580 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

After those arguments who would hold anything but physical in their own possession?

They seem to say 'the world is completely corrupt...trust us...

On D Day I want mine near me. I do not want to hear my counterparty has had an 'incident' and are truly sorry but 'you will be paid in (soon to be worthless) dollars.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:04 | 5239585 homiegot
homiegot's picture

On D-Day, food, bullets, firearms, water, medicine, fuel, etc. will be worth more than gold.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:28 | 5239621 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

SDRs are a form of medium of exchange. The important thing to understand is that the world is moving towards a monetary system in which the medium of exchange will just not be that important. SDRs or any MoE will not be saved to store wealth for long periods. Gold will be the best of the stores of value. Sure equities will have a place for the adventurous but for savers gold and only gold will be sufficient.

Talk of 'the next reserve currency' is empty. The world will not allow China or anyone else to provide a reserve currency. The dollar proved that that kind of system ends disastrously for both the world and the printer of the reserve. If SDRs do become a global medium of exchange they will be inflated too and after what the dollar is going to do there won't be many fools who will store SDRs for any period of time.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:35 | 5239678 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Not a different GRC, but no GRC.

In its place I'd expect a "Basket of RRCs". REGIONAL Reserve Currencies. Backed by whatever is defensible: PM and/or Oil/Gas plus Nukes.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:39 | 5240035 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

You are correct. But what about D-Day +5 years? Food production and basic manufacturing will become king again. You want to jumpstart a farm or business? Gold will be the store of value that gets you off the ground. I won't sell my good bottom land to you for Al E. Baaaa Baaaa stock.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 12:31 | 5240452 mt paul
mt paul's picture

old italian grandfather

gave me some gold coins

 

told me to use them to start my buisiness

still got the coins

earned my way into my trade the hard way

i worked for it ..

 

if you take care of the work

day after day after day

the work will take care of you ..

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:10 | 5239591 Amerikan Patriot
Amerikan Patriot's picture

Are you tired of bending over and grabbing your ankles month after month, year after year, precious metals fools?

Stocks have been going up for years...gold and silver have been digging deeper and deeper holes...and yet have even further to fall!

Yes, I know, the current monetary system will all go to hell-and-a-handbasket eventually (i.e., long after you're dead).

Those children of yours need to eat - why not trudge on down to the coin shop and exchange that Silver Eagle for a can of pork and beans whilst you're still able?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:57 | 5239650 laomei
laomei's picture

No one here likes hearing it, but this is pretty much true.  Definitely have a stash of physical as "insurance", but that's all it is.  Everyone knows the markets and fiat is unsustainable and will eventually fail with those with vested interests kicking and screaming and delaying as long as possible... but, in the end it goes poof because that's just reality.

 

In the meantime though, if shit's going up, go with the trend, it's stupid trying to think your few puny ounces of shiny metal impact anything.  In a fullblown madmax meltdown, it's better to have a bit of wealth than no wealth, but it's also better to have a bit of wealth than a lot of wealth (especially in a new world where 90%+ of everyone around you has nothing... you might have guns, but you can't be a one-man army).

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 05:38 | 5239879 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

This is the problem with the world these days, people are not prepared to wait for delayed gratification.........

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:43 | 5240041 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Any dirtbag can ride the coattails of the manipulators, but don't come around here with prognostications because you have already made a conscious decision to leave the well being of you and yours to TPTB. Remember, when it is your turn to bend over and be abused... "don't fight the Fed".

/edit - not you L&F, obviously I am in agreement w/ your sentiment

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 12:38 | 5240466 mt paul
mt paul's picture

i don't look at PM's as an investment

 

consider them risk free savings in these days of rouge fiat currency

PM's in my hand will always have value in a safe place, my hands

if i want to make an investment, will buy materials 

melt some glass , produce product ,sell make 10 x profit

can't do that in the hyped up stock market...

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:07 | 5239655 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

"A " can of pork and beans? For an ounce of silver? Where do you shop?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 04:07 | 5239822 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

even in a post collapse system disscuss you keep your pre-collaspe way of thinking & try to make business fair for you  and unfair to those you dealing with...

 

you will never change.

 

you are the exemple of what humanity have to trash, men with conquest & anihilation mentality.

 

as if in a no more food world you would be able to demand food at same pricing than before collapse,  you will fucking die coz when you face 100k ppl starving, when there is only 50k food can, half will kill other half to eat. i would like to see you lil cunt with your oz in hang shaking in air " youhouuuu, i got PMmmmmm, who wanna traaaade "

 

by not even look like a starving ppl you will be considered as a food hidder and be beheaded.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 04:08 | 5239823 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

.... fuck pm....

 

all you need is solid light weight gun & bagpacked ammos, a knife and a lighter.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:45 | 5240045 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

You are pathetic. Thank you for your service (self identification that is)

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:39 | 5239751 bardot63
bardot63's picture

You have the choice of being wrong now or being wrong later.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:54 | 5239770 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

He's half-way there and I sincerely hope maintains his consistency...

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:41 | 5239754 bardot63
bardot63's picture

You wouldn't use a silver coin to buy a can of beans.  You'd use it to buy a carload of cans of beans.  I wouldn't use a gold coin to buy a loaf of bread.  I'd use it to buy the bakery. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:52 | 5239763 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

@American Pieceofshit:

What I am tired of is imbecile pricks like you spouting nonsense in support of the lies, deception, corruption and fraud that preys on others.

I don't tell you what to do, so hows about you fuck off and don't tell me what to do...you sanctimonious parasite.

Stackers possess personal characteristics that you will never even understand, let alone possess i.e. honesty, self-respect, bravery and honour to stand-up for a righteous set of beliefs.

You're worse than the unenlightened in that you see what's going on yet you still choose to pursue the self-centred, dishonourable path of a cheat.

You are not worthy of any respect you scumbag.

The worthy keep stacking.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:25 | 5239620 HeavydutyMexica...
HeavydutyMexicanOfTheNorthernKingdom's picture

Pancho Villa approves of Gold and Silver.  Carry on...

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 00:31 | 5239623 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I can understand a down vote for a comment ...but for a math correction?...somebody really hates me out there...

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:36 | 5239676 Platypus
Platypus's picture

Mike Maloney also known as Mike BALONEY is a guy that will send you gold in exchange for paper currency on his website. He will also exchange his services ( books, speeches, consulting, etc) for the same paper currency he preaches against. I love gold, but I prefer to buy it when it is cheap. When gold is expensive I sell it to the suckers. Maloney, Schiff, Faber and all the other self proclaimed "experts" out there have the same strategy. They throw so much poop in the air that something will end up sticking. Than they capitalize on it. Buy low sell high...sell high buy low, it is that simple. I bought gold when nobody was talking about it I bought equities when nobody wanted it. Now I'm a seller of both. And loving it!! : ) $$$$$$

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:46 | 5239689 bcking
bcking's picture

Obviously you believe what you were 'taught' in public school. I weep for you and your children.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:04 | 5239706 Platypus
Platypus's picture

As expected, subjective views, empty allegations and no facts. I believe in, and backup my posts with facts. :)

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 05:11 | 5239866 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

and what "facts" would those be, precisely?

your claims that you are a great trader who times the market precisely and knows when to buy and sell?

i call bullshit, your claims are empty and i don't believe them.

also, what you are saying about maloney is drivel from the mouth of a moron. why should he not sell PMs for dollars? dollars are the most commonly used currency at this time. what is difficult for you to understand about this? were you dropped on your head as a child?

if you want to claim that his actions are inconsistent with his statements, then you need to provide some evidence that he actually HOLDS substantial wealth in dollars, rather than merely using dollars as a pass-through currency. if you have some evidence, some "facts" as you claim, then i suggest you present them. if not, then STFU!

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 06:45 | 5239910 Platypus
Platypus's picture

You don't have to believe a word I'm saying. Just keep buying gold at the top, lets see how it will turn out later. And I don't time the market precisely I just buy valuable stuff when nobody wants it. I remember people like you buying equities on the pic of the "dot com" and bashing me for buying gold. i don't think they are laughing now!! Right now I'm buying properties in places like Detroit. I know.... nobody wants it, same thing I heard multiple times before.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:03 | 5239921 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

Good luck with the properties in Detroit.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:10 | 5239933 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

Put all your precious metals into Detroit mate. Every last penny. It's a dead cert.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:16 | 5239939 Platypus
Platypus's picture

Not all in Detroit. I'm never all in in just one thing, but I bought a lot of properties over there. It is cheap so I bought it. I heard that before in 2000 when I was buying gold and more recently in 2009 when I was bottom feeding on equities. It payed very well. Thanks to the suckers that sold at the bottom. Without you guys I will not be able to keep my life stile.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:37 | 5239959 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

Me and my good friend Santa are going all in on North Pole igloos. We'll show all of you suckers when we're living in style - ha ha.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:18 | 5240004 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

Now igloos in Detroit - there's an idea.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:38 | 5240030 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

Great idea I've just made a bundle on russian rockets that I bought at the bottom ..... so I'm looking for next big thing. I'll tell Santa I'm only half in on the North Pole. It's got to be better than Perth Mint Lunars.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:02 | 5240084 oldschool
oldschool's picture

"It is cheap so I bought it."

Some things are cheap for a reason.  Where's the upside for Detroit?


Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:54 | 5240614 Platypus
Platypus's picture

When you buy a house for 5 bucks close to a nice area. Sounds good to me !! :) I bought a bunch, even if it becomes farm land in the future between 1 nd 5 bucks I will take it !!

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:09 | 5239934 Platypus
Platypus's picture

Yep!! Around 2000 people used to tell me the same thing about gold!! :)

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 12:02 | 5240384 Herodotus
Herodotus's picture

A baby born today will not live long enough to see a turnaround in Detroit.

You first have to get rid of more than 600,000 people who still live there.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 14:00 | 5240633 Platypus
Platypus's picture

LOL !! I know this time is different, right?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 15:20 | 5240849 rejected
rejected's picture

If traders like Maloney or the others didn't sell metal for fiat how and where would we buy it? They are doing us a favor and making money (real money) too. What is wrong with that?

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 02:29 | 5242307 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

platypus, i called you out, and you sidestepped the question 100%!

if you're going go claim that your statements are backed up by "facts", then PRESENT THEM! i asked you to provide some evidence of what you had to say about maloney, you did not, you backed off, and ran away like a chicken shit.

you have no facts, you're all talk, an envoius hater, and a pretender, you're a phony.

and again, your claims about me buying stocks at the top of the dot com bubble are a LIE, you are a LIAR, you don't know anything about me, you make stuff up, and then you LIE and say your statements are backed up by facts.

the truth is, you are a lying sack of shit.

 

 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 10:31 | 5240196 homiegot
homiegot's picture

If Baloney walked the walk, he would only be paid in gold or silver and pay for things in gold and silver. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 05:44 | 5239882 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Actually Maloney predicted the 2008 crash, and has spent the last 6 years understanding human behaviour and history enough to announce and forecast the biggest wealth transfer in history.

He is already right, with the shift of gold west to east and the continued purchasing of western assets by China.  

There is your facts. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:08 | 5239931 Platypus
Platypus's picture

LOL!! Even a broken clock is right twice a day. If I become a perma bear and keep preaching a economic colapse on every recession I will look really good.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 10:30 | 5240190 homiegot
homiegot's picture

Alex Jones predicted 9/11. 

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 06:35 | 5239900 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

If you're a seller of physical gold please let me know.  I am buying and will buy yours.  Yes I'll trade FRNs for it.  How's that for a fact for ya?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 07:23 | 5239946 Platypus
Platypus's picture

Why buy gold from me? Just send your " worthless " paper currency to Myke Maloney. He will gladly accept it and send you gold in exchange! :)

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:49 | 5240058 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Why buy gold from me?

Because you said you are selling. Oops - caught you in a lie, did he? That's OK, I am sure your paymaster will still cut your check, "Platypus". Not all agents can keep their stories straight consistently. Like I said to the dbags above, when it is your turn to bend over remember... "don't fight the Fed".

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 14:00 | 5240609 Platypus
Platypus's picture

LOL!! The logic behind yor conclusion tell me one or two things about your IQ. Sorry buddy no time for third graders

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 09:00 | 5240079 therevolutionwas
therevolutionwas's picture

So you buy and sell PM's...wonderful.   So does Maloney, Schiff, Faber and the rest.  I think I get a fair deal from them.  You I'm not sure about.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 10:28 | 5240187 homiegot
homiegot's picture

This is the most coherent post in this thread.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 01:53 | 5239696 tribune
tribune's picture

we all tend to anchor our beliefs. many people anchor their beliefs in believeing inflation is inevitable due to "money printing", when in fact what we are dealing with is note printing + credit creation. credit creation vastly out weighs note printing, hence the threat we face is credit contraction and hence overall money supply contraction, in otherwords "deflation". we all need to be careful of propaganda and our "rat brains" which tend to oversimplify things. if the money supply drops then gold should follow it, shouldn't it?

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 02:19 | 5239726 praps
praps's picture

Agreed,  And it is worse than that.  As we deflate, debt doesn't deflate and eventually becomes unpayable.  When that point is reached every asset class will be sold to pay off debt, including gold and silver.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:13 | 5239998 Being Free
Being Free's picture

praps, maybe you want to rethink/restate that:

...debt doesn't deflate and eventually becomes unpayable.  When that point is reached every asset class will be sold to pay off debt...

as it is, that statement makes my head hurt.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:48 | 5240053 Kina
Kina's picture

Indeed deflation is great for those with cash..

TPTB are scared of deflation.

Sun, 09/21/2014 - 08:39 | 5240036 CHX
CHX's picture

An it's even worse than that. There is more debt, or rather promises, than assets - think of all the unfunded liabilities the US has in the ~100(+?) Trillion US$. These cannot be fulfilled in dollars of the same purchasing power. And then, there is still the gorilla in the room, the ~ 1 Quadrillion worth of derivatives on top of the debt (interest rates and CDS) and other "assets". Inlfate or die on a global scale seems the path of least resistence, and gold will reflect that at some point. A collaps might (will) put as back to the stone age... 

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