This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Global Leading Indicator Plunges To Economic "Slowdown", Goldman Warns
Just two short months ago, Goldman Sachs was exuberant over the 'expansion' signals that the firm's Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram was exhibiting as it confirmed their 'economists' expectations that the Keynesian hockey-stick of hope would once again re-appear majestically in H2 2014 and lift America (and the world) to escape velocity. That dream is over. Confirming the collapse of world GDP expectations, Goldman's GLI has plunged into 'slowdown' with momentum starting to slow. Perhaps, just perhaps, as we noted previously, this time is not different and the annual cycle of extrapolating early-year hope is rapidly turning to late-year disappointment.
As Goldman explains...
Our September Advanced GLI came in at 3.0%yoy, down from last month’s reading of 3.1%yoy. Momentum decreased to 0.25%mom from 0.29%mom last month.
The September Advanced reading places the global cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, characterised by positive but decelerating momentum.
Which explains this...
And confirms concerns that this time is no different, as we noted previously,
For the past five years there has been a very clear and significant cycle to US macro data - a slight rise to start the year, notable weakness into the middle of the year, a rapid recovery into the fall, then generally flat to year-end. A year ago, we explained this cycle appears to be created by government agencies need to spend, spend, spend their budgets out ahead of fiscal year-end (Sept).
This year has been no different, aside from the knee-jerk higher in macro data - somewhat shocking in its magnitude to 'every' economist with 3, 4, and 5-sigma beats in many data - came a little earlier but to the same level of past year's exuberance (as perhaps Ex-Im concerns, Fed concerns, and election concerns sparked earlier-than-usual spend-down by agencies).
* * *
Of course, if this plays out... it's 'perfect' for the Fed to extend dovish language and investors to pile on into stocks on the back of the bad news... or without QE, is Fed talk no longer enough?
»
- 16639 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Swirlogram? Why don't they just say the economy is in the toilet.
I much prefer demonstrating economic weakness using a wet willy chart myself.
just B.T.F.D. THEN B.T.F.A.T.H. ..... GOT IT ?!?!
don worry, 'bout a ting, 'cuz evry little ting, gonna be alright . . . . .
Yeah, but is it seasonally adjusted? Without seasonal adjustment, I'm not interested.
Meanwhile stocks hit records, fundamentals 'rise' and analysts remain bullish.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/09/fundamentals-improving-as-u-s-stoc...
What is one to make of this conflicted view of the future.
It is Mafia, Banking & Spy Agency Doctrine:
3Bs: Baffle 'em with Brilliant Bullshit.
"How Do you feel about being Programed & Used"?
"Swirlogram? Why don't they just say the economy is in the toilet."
Confuse & Distract while programing and setting the Narrative:
- US Derivatives
- Waivers on GAAP Accounting, Auditing, & Independent Auditing Agencies
- Lobbying, Unlimited money in politics, Dependence of Politicians on Big Money Entities
- Conflict of Interest for Government Officials, Concurrence from government Regulators for projects, expansion, new drugs, new science
Worst is the Memes or Paradigms of Science & Banking. All Institution work to remain the same, in the same place/status, and with the same personalities leading the way (professors).
Memes of Politics also stay the same.
Memes of Police State also stay the same. No one challenges the memes of the state either in politics or in police actions within the USA.
The news is just pitiful.
"Fires in the West! Flooding in the South-West! Unrest in the Middle East"
Yeah, like every Autumn for the past 40 years, but now they act as if we have never seen these things before.
What we haven't seen is this level of sensationalism while $17+ Trillion in debt, GDP crap, historically low labor participation rate, economy in the toilet, and bucket after bucket of propaganda and tripe in the media.
Fucking ridiculous. Our society is losing its mind.
The 'economy in the toilet' remark is off the mark by a tad given that the economy was flushed from the toilet back in 2008. I suspect that the economy is somewhere along the sewage system after six years,
and quite possibly has been through the waste treatment plants by now.
Clearly, we can't scoop this turd out of the toilet to see if Janet Yellen can polish the turd enough to make it shine once again!
.......b b b b b b b b b uuuutttttt Erin Burnett and the happy people on TV have been telling me we're in a strong recovery . . . . . . you must be some crazy paranoid right-wing homegrown terrrrrrrist !
...you forgot record high foodstamp usage AND historically record-low public approval ratings of Congress/POTUS . Otherwise, +999 !!
'N it's gonna get cooler as we get into winter. Might even get some snow and colder temperatures. Maybe even real cold in certain corners thereabout done the road up a bit. 'less 'course you're in the southern hemisphere. Then it could be a warmin' up. And betcha some places get some rain, too. Damn bad forecasts for the economies, no? Mean, never know what's gonna happen with them bloody thirsty rag heads 'n all. Why, I'd betcha that some ems even got smarts to control the weather. My dingbat brother-in-law keeps talking bout all that kinda crazy shit. Owns a lot of gold, too, he does. Nutz. Why, I told that half-sister by my step-mom's third marriage to her cousin once removed by my pappy's first divorce, that she shouldn't a married my brother her bein' my half sister and all 'an they says that's OK because it's the good half they share and pa weren't married ta ma when she had them both. They wuz twins. But never you mind all that, 'cuz them swirlier-o-grams is good munchin'. Yup. Never can tell 'bout that weather. Or GDP, neither.
Nope
I have a hard time dealing with 82 million now on Medicaid and probably most of the remaining uninsured will go to madicaid under Obamacare. That with 55 million on medicare mean soon 175 million out of our 320 million are on permanent aid (although many actually paid in for it during some 40 years of working) --leaving 145 million (or their parents) to pay taxes to cover all.
145 and maybe holding steady pay
175 and growing take
I was never good in school but even a caveman can figure this out.
Arrest Loyd Blankfein. Try him for funding war crimes.
I think it is really collapse time now because of the unleashing of the Ebola virus and less than 2% growth for an extended period of time as well as the Russia thing. The Western bankers are ready to rain hell down on their nation states.
So it's pretty simple sheeple so listen up:
SEPTEMBER IS THE WORST MONTH BY FAR FOR STOCKS FOR A REASON...AND THAT REASON IS CALLED CHRISTMAS.
To be brief: "all credit is to be extended in the months of September/October." The collapse in 2008 happened when the commercial paper market seized up...meaning there was to be no "Merry Christmas" but a Lehman Brothers collapse instead.
That's "hot money" (confidence in a two week loan being repaid) and we're going through yet another "dread Christmas" six years running now.
The last two have both resulted in very large outright recession prints.
I see no reason why this one shouldn't be the worst ever.
This is going to be the best Chrismas ever in retail. Everyone I know is flush with cash and can't wait to spend it. </sarc>
Everybody I know is flush with the cash they got from their lower ObieCAre premiums and just dyin' to get well again when the after Christmas sales start in earnest in mid-October.
But first....the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Brought to you by "Zorgon, King of the Underworld. Where Turkey and Hell are One!"
Ho Ho Ho, have a fucking Merry Christmas you foul Catholics. Jesus sucks !
Merry Kwanzaa to you, Frank. You be careful with those candles, unlike last year.
I saw Christmas displays at several stores this weekend, FFS, it's not even Halloween yet.
Maybe Goldman can get really creative and twist the Swirlogram into the shape of the Ebola virus.
When it comes to Goldman Sachs, it is wise to remember that this is a private global banking giant in business to make money for Goldman Sachs. Period. And if Goldman makes predictions or analyses or comments on the Fed or the markets or political news, all have been prepared by people hired to make money for Goldman Sachs.
It is worse than advertising; it is corporate flimflam. GS since 1869 has been flimflamming nations and people out of their wealth, their land and their political power.
And when GS goes bankrupt, the American taxpayers bail it out. Is there any wonder why "Wall Street's No. 1 dealmaker" “always seems to be in the sweet spot of every market."
Most people who read an ordinary sales pitch know its content is designed to make a sale; but when they read GS commentary emanating from the NY Fed, they think the comments are from some great Fed or GS economist who is sharing his research for the common good. That’s nonsense.
The swindle may read like benevolent expert advice from Goldman’s best, but it isn’t. If a Goldman Sachs employee who writes this stuff takes away any profit from the GS bottom line, he will be fired.
And it works hand-in-hand with the government, the U.S. Treasury and most central banks. “Former Goldman executives who moved on to government positions include: Robert Rubin and Henry Paulson who served as United States Secretary of the Treasury under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, respectively; Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank; Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada 2008–13 and Governor of the Bank of England from July 2013.”*
As Ben Stein wrote in the NY Times: From what I have observed over the years, Goldman has a fascinating culture. It is sort of like what I imagine the culture of the K.G.B. to be. You always put the firm first…
“Interesting that Goldman entered the IPO market in 1906 when it took Sears, Roebuck and Company public.[9] The deal occurred due to Henry Goldman's personal friendship with the owner of Sears, Julius Rosenwald.[9] Other IPOs followed, including F. W. Woolworth and Continental Can.[9]”*
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldman_Sachs
And some people call this “capitalism."
A giant? They're levered a billion to one.
To everything.
AIG was a Giant.
I don't see Goldman ever walking away from "total dirtbag status." Ever.
"Congratulations. You just made partner"? I think most will pass on that now that they know how that partnership is just a vehicle for trading on inside information for the benefit of...well, nobody really.
Eliminate the tribe banksters, 1st world problem #1 solved.
BOOM. Iceland 101 bitchez.
I don't know, piss off the bankers and volcanoes open up under your feet. I'd be cautious.
Hey hey hey hey JR, don't insult the KGB. At least they were honest about what they did. Goldman runs around telling people some kind of drivel that was prepared by Psych. Phds in order to fool all of us from no ttaking action against them. Remember Lefortovo Prison? Try looking it up.
And now they're covering their earlier predictions; they are trying to back away making it look as if they have credible information.
Torture's long shadow... Indeed.
BTFD isn't going to work this time, although many will fall prey to its siren song again. The huge debt bubble is bursting and the coming weeks will surprise everyone with the severity and ferocity of the economic decline.
S&P 500 weekly update
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/category/stocks/sp500-charts/
Analytical look at a debt bubble 40 years in the making
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
"BTFD dip works until it doesn't." Those are the rules of Fight Club.
Dear Leader did not approve of this slowdown.
Bullish!
Here we go again, time to load up the shorts for the mother of all short squeezes to start just in time for Christmas/year-end window dressing.
Funny I always thought the expression - escape velocity.
I always had with me that the only things which escape is fart and burp.
Until Americans need Russian rocket engines to achieve escape velocity from the atmosphere.
Economy needs a lot of work, low tax and great spirit incentivo- de corps - in society to rebuild.
Print paper money has been tried before and it did not work, nor will I mention the Weimar Republic would be cowardice.
You can check on the history of gold and silver coins were replaced with copper and bronze.
Countries implode when there is excess military spending and extreme taxation on small businesses - which are actually the ones that make the economy go, are they employ.
A country that gives value to large corporations at the expense of the little corner of commerce that sells fruits and vegetables will break your support.
It is small which makes a great country, not the opposite.
You can see it in agriculture, large areas of monoculture generate few jobs.
The same fractional area with many farmers generate more employment and diversity of crops that feed more people.
I live in Brazil where the rotation of crops is permanent region have two harvests per year - soybeans, corn, beans etc. - And raise cattle.
You divide the land into 4 parts and will every year doing crop rotation and creation, the earth does not degrade.
In a year you put grass in another year cows eat, produce fertilizer, in another year you plant corn that leaves a lot of material as fertilizer, next semester you plant soybeans or beans and so the thing goes.
Sorry so long but the text, to the escape velocity thing needs more than just printing paper money.
:-)
Great gems in this post. Small businessmen are the answer, the "canary in the coal mine." They, not Obama, not the Fed and not the enjoined economists determine when recessions begin and end. The butcher, baker, the candlestick maker, the small factory owner and the small family farmer and community banker who employ 50% and upward of American workers, destroy them and you destroy America..
Another short squeezed trap
The country went batshit crazy in 2008 and the tree of socialismo is taking root. How fckd up is this country you say? Well Janet Old Yellen said the young folk should save for the future. Nevermind that there is no real reason to save given her policies. Peons do not get interest for thier money. Yellen's banks get free money AND can charge interest on that free money. This very same money in the Peons hands is not worthy of interest. Stupidest thing I have heard come out of a FED chair trolls mouth. We have complete idiotic Keynsians morons running our country.
We all know there is going to be a re-structure of the entire system soon...We just dont know when, and how bad it will hit the American people...I say it is sooner than later and I think because our debt, no manufacturing jobs, dumbed down population,etc., all we really have is agriculture land, and possibly natural gas. so the average American is going to get screwed unless they are into precious metals, agriculture, possibly the gold back yuan, etc.
Restructure as in finallly let the market crash and the economy and the dollar, and whatever social construct we have left. Yup, that is when we will "re-structure". As long as the EBT cards promote breathing and breeding, status quo. And I don't know that it will be soon or be what you think it is. These evil beings controlling our money supply have plugged many holes in the fabric of reality that allows downs as well as ups.
Very true playtime...I usually post a bit what I think to get other peoples opinions...Yours is well taken. I am just one of those people that remember the movie "face off" and towards the end of the movie when he says "just die!!!!!!!!!!!" :-)
Fuck Goldman.
Duh GS ya think it's a slow down? I think its a quick slide in to recession in 3 2 1!
Enough with the fucking swirlagram. There is absolutely nothing you can glean from that.
For a company that prides itself as being made of the best and the brightest, they real show no evidence of being best or bright ... simply corrupt.
Here's something you don't see everyday.
Belgium 2Y -0.002 -0.004 0.055 -0.009 +0.002( +50.00%) 6:13:07Spinning water is starting to glug, the drain looks to be getting very close. I'm taking this PM price smash as my lucky omen. Something in my head is now saying RED ALERT, buy buy buy.
My entry in nice Mr Goldman's "What Does The Picture Look Like" competition - Is it cobra?