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Five Important Lessons Learned From The Scottish Referendum

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Submitted by Ryan McMaken via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Government authorities in the UK have declared that the “Yes” campaign for secession has failed by a margin of approximately 55 percent to 45 percent. Yet, even without a majority vote for secession, the campaign for separation from the United Kingdom has already provided numerous insights into the future of secession movements and those who defend the status quo.

Lesson 1: Global Elites Greatly Fear Secession and Decentralization

Global elite institutions and individuals including Goldman Sachs, Alan Greenspan, David Cameron and several major banks pulled out all the stops to sow fear about independence as much as possible. Global bankers vowed to punish Scotland, declaring they would move out of Scotland if independence were declared.

According to one report:

A Deutsche Bank report compared it to the decision to return to the gold standard in the 1920s, and said it might spark a rerun of the Great Depression, at least north of the border.

When it comes to predictions of economic doom, it doesn’t get much more hysterical than that. Except that it does. David Cameron nearly burst into tears begging the Scots not to vote for independence.

The elite onslaught against secession employed at least two strategies. The first involved threats and “for your own good” lectures. Things will “not work out well” for Scotland in case of secession, intoned Robert Zoellick of the World Bank. John McCain implied that Scottish independence would be good for terrorists. The second strategy involved pleading and begging, which, of course, betrayed how truly fearful the West’s ruling class is of secession.

In addition to Cameron’s histrionics based on nostalgia and maudlin appeals to not break “this family apart,” Cameron attempted (apparently successfully) to bribe the Scottish voters with numerous promises of more money, more autonomy, and more power within the UK.

The threats that focused on the future of the Scottish monetary system are particularly telling. The very last thing that governments in London, Brussels, or Washington, DC want to see is an established Western country secede from a monetary system and join another in an orderly fashion. Political secession is bad enough, and is a thorn in the side of the EU which clearly hopes to establish itself someday as a perpetual union with no escape option. A successful withdrawal from a major global currency, even if to join the EMU later, would imply that countries have monetary options other than being absorbed wholesale (and permanently) by the EMU.

Lesson 2: Secession Movements Will Demand a Vote

While the UK elites were desperate to see the Scotland referendum fail, few argued that the Scots had no right to vote on the matter. Some argued that all of the UK should vote on it, but most observers appeared to simply accept that the Scots were entitled to vote by themselves on Scotland’s status in the UK.

This is bad news for many American and European regimes where traditions of democracy ostensibly run strong, but are manipulated to favor centralization. The United States government, for example, clings to the idea that no secession could possibly take place unless approved by the central government, and most Americans will dutifully denounce any attempt at a secessionist vote as treason. But in Europe, the mere existence of the Scotland referendum calls into question the legitimacy of efforts by central governments to ignore or prohibit local votes on independence. The Italian government has practically refused to even acknowledge the existence of the Venetian referendum, and the Spanish government in Madrid has already reiterated that it will ignore the results of the upcoming Catalonian vote.

It will not go unnoticed that the people who ignore such democratic outcomes when they endanger the elite’s status quo are the same people who extol the virtues of democracy when it suits their centralizing purposes, or when used to justify foreign wars.

Those regimes that deny a vote or which refuse to recognize votes to secede will continue to appear more and more retrograde as time goes on, and much of this will be due to the nearly unchallenged Scottish prerogative to conduct local votes on secession.

Some regimes may attempt to get around this by requiring nation-wide votes on secession. So, in the case of Venice, it is much easier to contemplate a situation in which the government in Rome allowed all of Italy to vote on whether or not Venice could secede. Such a vote would be safe from the central regime’s perspective since it would be highly unlikely to succeed under such conditions. Southern Italians benefit from tax revenues extracted from the Veneto region. Catalan, as well, is one of the more productive regions in Spain, so a nationwide vote would almost certainly lean toward continuing to exploit Catalonia for the benefit of less productive Spaniards.

Some observers have insisted that the relationship between such regions and the central governments in question are like “marriages” and that secession is like a “divorce.” A much better analogy, of course, is of a battered spouse seeking to flee the relationship for a safe house. Giving the full national electorate a vote is like giving an abusive spouse the power to veto any attempt at divorce.

It’s interesting to note, however, that Scotland is not in the same position as Veneto or Catalonia in that it is not a wealthy area of the United Kingdom. Indeed, from the point of view of budgets and tax revenues (ignoring the monetary dimension), England would not see much negative impact from Scotland’s departure. Had things been different, we might not have seen the same accepting attitude toward a referendum. Nonetheless, the precedent has been set.

Lesson 3: American Ideas about Secession Are Unsophisticated and Parochial

For a great many Americans, the concept of secession is meaningless outside the context of the American Civil War. Since it is conveniently never mentioned that the American Revolution was the result of American secession from the British Empire, Americans know virtually nothing of any other secession movement in history in any other context except the Confederacy and slavery. Some Americans of a certain age associate secession with the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s, wrongly thinking that war to be caused by secession and not by decades of centralizing communist rule.

So, most Americans, when faced with a question of secession, have only two responses: (1) If you want secession you must want “balkanization.” By this, it is meant that secession equals ethnic cleansing and bloody civil war. (2) “If you want secession, you must be racist.” Because, of course, secession could serve no possible purpose other than the spread of slavery.

The Scottish question has made it clear that in the rest of the world, most educated human beings understand that secession has been used in a wide variety of historical and political contexts. Obviously, slavery has nothing at all to do with the secession movements in Quebec, Scotland, Veneto, or Catalonia.

Moreover, Americans in the typical fashion of authoritarians who justify any unjust state of affairs by dogmatically repeating the phrase “it’s the law” act as if the matter of regional autonomy and independence was settled once and for all in 1865 by the Civil War. Presumably, for these people, the matter has been settled until the End of Time, because some other people — all of whom are now long-dead — fought a war about it. It requires truly awe-inspiring levels of philistinism to think that something political is forever settled because of something someone else did a century and half ago. Among more rational and reasonable groups of humans, however, it is recognized that political conditions and allegiances change constantly.

At the same time, the pro-secessionists in America who dogmatically invoke the United States constitution of 1787 as proof of secession’s legality, will continue to fail to win converts. The constitution as envisioned by those who wrote it has been dead and buried for at least a century. The old interpretation is far too limiting in any case, and only applies to full US states, and not to portions of states.

Lesson 4: Secession is a good way to bargain

As we learned from the Scotland experience, centralizers fear secession to the point where they’re willing to throw a lot of bones to the secessionists. Of course, in the case of Scotland, which is a net tax-receiver region, these promises involved a lot of government welfare. In the case of Veneto, for example, things would be different. In any case, threatening secession is a useful tactic in obtaining additional autonomy. Moreover, it is always helpful to force a central government to submit to a referendum on its legitimacy. This should not be done in a one-off election as the Scots have done, but as a regular feature of the political process.

Ultimately, however, what really matters to the regime is that the ability to inflate the money supply and control the financial system. Politicians from the central government will be willing to part with many powers, but the power to inflate and control the banks will never be given up lightly.

Lesson 5: Centralization is Unnecessary for Economic Success

As predicted by Martin Van Creveld and a host of other observers of trends in state legitimacy, the state’s status as the central fact in the political order of the world continues to decline with smaller national groups and economic regions breaking up the old order in favor of both local autonomy and international alliances. The Scottish secession effort is simply one of many recent examples. The short-term defeat of the referendum will do little to alter this trend.

In addition, the economic realities of the modern world with constantly-moving capital and labor will continue to undermine the modern nation-state which has been largely built on the idea of economic nationalism and the myth that national economic self-sufficiency can be obtained.

The proliferation of trade among nations with huge national markets, labor forces, and a willingness to trade internationally has broken down the old national claims that only the nation-state can provide the markets, coercive power, and international clout necessary for economic growth. In fact, the Scots, the Venetians, and the Catalonians see access to international markets as something that is quite attainable without the added baggage of the central state to which they are presently beholden. Does Venice need Rome to trade with China? It’s unlikely.

As Peter St. Onge has pointed out, small nations do quite well when it comes to economic performance, and smallness is hardly a liability. This assertion that bigger is better was always easily disprovable, but remained popular for centuries. The success of the Scottish secessionist claims that Scotland could indeed compete internationally has shown that the dominance of the old myth continues to break down.

Conclusion

Some British newspapers have declared that “the dream is over” for Scottish independence. That seems hardly likely, unless by “over,” the newspapers mean “over for the next few years.” Europe-wide, the drive for more regional independence and autonomy will only continue to grow as economies stagnate, and as elites from Brussels or Rome or Madrid continue to maintain that they know best. Eventually, the promises of the centralizers will fall on very deaf ears.

 

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Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:32 | 5245109 TeamDepends
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6) Hope I die before I get old.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:49 | 5245165 forexskin
forexskin's picture

can't help but think only about 1/2 of scotland is descended from william wallace, and the other half are still serfs, begging for scraps from the 'noble' table.

scots that left that quagmire, like my grams family, said things like "i'm scottish, irish and english, and if i knew what part was english, i'd cut it out". the scots expats loved freedom more than the rock they came from.

to the free scots everywhere.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:18 | 5245287 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Pittsburgh got it's share of the Scots who expatriated in Andrew Carnegie, Thomas Mellon, the McCays, and so many others who became gazillionaires.

Where are their genes now in the motherland??

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:45 | 5245382 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Only one lesson that matters:  They'll never let you go by a simple vote, all peaceful-like.  It's Braveheart or you're theirs forever.  

I do agree with #4, though.  A way to bargain.  Probably not for freedom as the author says, though.  Mostly just more stuff.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 01:31 | 5246193 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

no. Lesson #1: It is easier to beg forgiveness, than ask for permission.

Disobedience! Bytchez!!!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 08:18 | 5246595 N. B. Forrest
N. B. Forrest's picture

Like many countries, they chased out all of the "troublemakers" and those who think inconvenient thoughts. 

 

Sweden and Greece come to mind as well.  All the smart Scots, Swedes and Greeks left years ago. 

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:45 | 5245151 Croesus
Croesus's picture

7) I hope the Status Quo dies, before I get old. 

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:55 | 5245188 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

8) Scotland has a bunch of soon to be old ass mother fuckers who dont give a shit about being FREE but for damn sho' want to keep getting SHIT for free...

damn the youngin's and their hopes of independence...
fucking pathetic assholes.....

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:15 | 5245273 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

And the young will age into old too and seek the same nanny state benefits that they can vote to themselves.

 

 

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:16 | 5245274 Democratic koolaid
Tue, 09/23/2014 - 00:02 | 5246084 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

We're making progress.

During the whole thing I never once heard "Haggas" mentioned.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:37 | 5245125 blindman
blindman's picture

only one lesson.
fuck off mate.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:43 | 5245144 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Control your own destiny.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:14 | 5245266 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

That's pretty much impossible, due to the dependence of first world populations on so many parts of the grid.

The AA prayer about controlling those things that you can is about as close as you can come to it without lighting out for the "Jeremiah Johnson" lifestyle. 

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 10:33 | 5247220 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

A smaller, more responsive country can get you closer...  Not perfect, but better...

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:45 | 5245146 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

One lesson only.
Voting is rigged.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:48 | 5245169 Croesus
Croesus's picture

It's a feel-good exercise, designed to make people think they have a say in the political process. 

Red team, blue team, both wings of the same turkey. 

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:11 | 5245250 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Theater of the Absurd. 

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 23:36 | 5245482 One World Mafia
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That election has awoken many to rigging which never would have happened if the 'Yeas' didn't vote so then the rulers didn't need to rig the vote.  Harder to catch rigging when it's electronic, and there are even laws against taking a selfie of yourself voting, but you can write your vote in with pen on paper even when there is a button next to it.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:02 | 5245214 FeralSerf
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Scottish independence vote was rigged far in advance; Usual suspects implicated in the coverup

http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=7780

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:48 | 5245157 Blackfox
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“Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it.”  - Malcolm X

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:10 | 5245246 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Doesn't matter your gender or your 'macho'.   

It's true though that if you want freedom, equality or anything (justice is a whole 'nother thing that has to wait on an appearance in heaven) you are going to more and more have to persuade it be given to you, failing that, earning it, and if you can't get it by your vote or asking for it, from the slaveholders, then yes, you will have to take it, by force, to include shedding likely your own blood, but hopefully a lot more of the blood of the Elite. 

Otherwise, be pacifist and live out your days in increasingly more oppressive police states, like they do in Singapore, Switzerland, and other authoritarian regimes. 

 

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 02:06 | 5246217 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"The only True Freedom is between your ears.  A pity that sheeple have so little between their ears and always something up their rears." - Kirk

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:49 | 5245166 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

In Iraq it immediately took the form of "roadblocks." And so it will be in the USA. Interstate highways will suddenly have "gates" thrown across them and you will be forced to pay a "toll to the troll."

This will shut down the bulk of the US transportation system in the USA save railroads.

The big fear is of Great Lakes Shipping...since that would be done in bulk...and cannot be interupted easily since it involves another...Soveriegn. (Canada.). If not two...

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 19:54 | 5245183 FeralSerf
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"Does Venice need Rome to trade with China? "

Does Taiwan need China to trade with Venice?

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 20:11 | 5245252 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Lesson 3: American Ideas about Secession Are Unsophisticated and Parochial

Ryan, babe, boopsie...your condescending attitude toward us is one of the main reasons we kicked a european monarch to the curb and anyone who comes before me positing to use secession as a "bargaining chip" with his "master" has no idea how to actually live free and has revealed themself as being employed by that master.

In short, fuck off.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 21:51 | 5245609 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

If he talked to someone who actually knows before he posted, he would find out that states cannot legally secede from the United States.  If a state unilaterally tries to reclaim sovereignty from the federal government, the federal government has the right, and the obligation under the Constitution, to assert its sovereignty, however limited, in that state's territory.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 19:20 | 5249688 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Legality and justice and sovereignty are three very different things.

For example, every government has laws that say rebellion against "a sovereign" (or a sovereign government) is a crime, do they not? Its pretty standard practice for those in power, they want to protect that power by deeming certain things as crimes.

Now, if say there is a  rebellion is against a dictator or a king who has gone against "his people" do the people think it a crime to chop his/her head off?

I think not.

As I like to say, Hitler had many laws making certain actions or people or speech "a crime", that is to say, illegal. Don't get hung up on law & legalities, its not really what you think it is.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 03:40 | 5246304 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

LOL. yes, it is condescending. Yet I fear it is quite in line with my prejudices, and however bad it is to have prejudices, I find them often confirmed

fact is that most Americans do travel very little (just see how many have a passport), compensated by a very few Americans that travel extensively

fact is that American Culture is bright. if you are holding the brightest item of a room near your eyes, this makes it very difficult to see the rest of the room

as such, I don't think this is good or bad. it's just the way it is

so I agree with the article's premise that all the various independence drives in the world are seen in a particular, parochial way in the US, heavily influenced by local concerns and views

and I think the comments here somehow prove this point

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 06:31 | 5246427 edotabin
edotabin's picture

There's a nice way to call people ignorant. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 06:59 | 5246457 Ghordius
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ignorant? we are all born ignorant, and nobody can "know it all". we all have both our depths,and shallow parts. in fact, ZH is full of excellent specialists on something that demonstrate glaring ignorance on something else

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 19:08 | 5249648 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"...however bad it is to have prejudices, I find them often confirmed"

I've noticed this about myself with "continentals" as well, with their penchant for order & state & monarchies & elites above any semblance of "just law" and it is nice to have a european confirm the inherent contradictions of it yet again.

It is what it is, isn't it? ;-)

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 21:02 | 5245428 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

"All necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused"

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 21:06 | 5245444 rlouis
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"Ultimately, however, what really matters to the regime is that the ability to inflate the money supply and control the financial system. Politicians from the central government will be willing to part with many powers, but the power to inflate and control the banks will never be given up lightly."

 

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 21:36 | 5245554 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

How did Hawaii come to be a US colony ?

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 21:47 | 5245594 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

If you can't swim to there from the mainland then it shouldn't belong to you. Same with the Falklands.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 00:43 | 5246154 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

lol!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 05:25 | 5246375 August
August's picture

Just as in Manhattan, it involved trinkets and firearms.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 21:46 | 5245588 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

"The United States government, for example, clings to the idea that no secession could possibly take place unless approved by the central government."  Question for the poster.  What do you think happens, legally, when a state ratifies the U.S. Constitution?  Here's a hint:  there's something called the Supremacy Clause.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 00:43 | 5246153 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

DID WE seek the blessings and permission of England to become the USA? NO!  Although they took us back over when the Banks started investing

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 03:23 | 5246288 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

But we never agreed NOT to seek independence.  That's why Scotland can merely vote to secede.  States of the United States have voluntarily agreed to hand a portion of their sovereignty to the federal government by ratifying the Constitution.  They can't just take it back when they want to.

Mon, 09/22/2014 - 22:41 | 5245873 limacon
limacon's picture

Is this the State withering away ?

Going off-grid would then be a secession of one .

With near-future technology , this might even be possible .

Althogh history suggests a minimum group of about 150 for survivability

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 00:40 | 5246148 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

if the vote had been 100% YES, The CITY of LONDON would have sent in troops to stop the divorce.....

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 00:53 | 5246167 Chris Rofot
Chris Rofot's picture

"If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." - Mark Twain

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 00:56 | 5246169 talisman
talisman's picture

from "lessons never learned":

Westminster's promises made for the purpose
of screwing Scotland over are worth the same as
any other "kiss and promise" made to get laid.

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 02:02 | 5246216 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

Lesson learned: VOTING IS USELESS. If you want change, FIGHT FOR IT. If your cause is just and you take the initiative, you will find many allies along your path. The problem is, as always: who dares to be first? I call 'shotgun'...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 02:29 | 5246246 the tower
the tower's picture

"Lesson 1: Global Elites Greatly Fear Secession and Decentralization"

Nonsense, if anything it will benefit the elites. Take London, the Dubaiification is in full swing. Soon the inner city will only be affordable by the rich, with the servants living in the outskirts. By then London will become a federal state - which the newly proposed laws will allow to happen.

This model is being followed everywhere, and the elites are not worried at all, because secession and decentralization of politics will only serve them. Devide and conquor.

 

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 03:10 | 5246278 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

When the ballot box fails, there is always the cartridge box. Unfortunately, the Scots turned all of theirs in.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 03:34 | 5246298 wide mouth kid
wide mouth kid's picture

this certainly isn't the end of it- some are already referring to a "neverendum referendum"

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 05:00 | 5246353 Thoresen
Thoresen's picture

Another article completely missing the real intentions of the SNP in Scotland.

Alex Salmond was/is a Marxist.

By taking Scotland independent he would have got his hands on 90% of the UK oil resources in the North Sea.

He would then have gone on a socialist spending spree.

WIthin 10 years the remainder of the UK would have found itself with a border with a failed/ bankrupt state, Scotland. Only solution, go back into the Union whilst UK bails Scotland out again (as it did in 1707).

So everyone gets fucked just so Scotland can have 10 years of living on what was the UK's natural resources.

If it wasn't for the prospect of grabbing the oil, there would be no real independence movement in Scotland at all. Far too many people inside and outside Scotland mix all of this up with the William Wallace Hollywood image.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 05:23 | 5246370 smacker
smacker's picture

Interesting comments.

I too have wondered what would happen at some future time when an incompetent spendthrift socialist Scottish government (they're mostly all socialists up there) bankrupted the country. Would England wade in and bail it out?? Probably. English taxpayers are cash cows.

But there would be a huge uproar from English voters. Would immigration controls have to be introduced to limit the numbers of unemployed Scots heading south for work to get away from their bankrupt nation??

So many unknowns .....

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 07:04 | 5246459 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

6. You can't vote your way to independence.

You cannot change the government by using a government-approved process. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 08:41 | 5246671 theinebriatedsot
theinebriatedsot's picture

was anyone really surprised at the vote results? do you not realize what the situation really is? the Elites control all in the West. any move at de-centralization will be met with subterfuge on their part. this 'vote' was a sham. they were never gonna let it pass. this can be put in the same chapter as the 'Anschluss' vote in 1938....predictable result.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:44 | 5248584 gdpetti
gdpetti's picture
  • It is said that the real Yes vote was 73%... did the SNP really expect a fair and impartial count? Didn't Stalin have something to say on that?
Tue, 09/23/2014 - 08:47 | 5246692 sam site
sam site's picture

Far from poor, Scotland's oil revenue is funding UKs socialist dinosour and in particular it's National Health Service and they want those oil profits to remain in Scotland to fund reform and bring jobs to Scotland.  The Yes vote probably won but the vote count was a massive fraud.

These expensive social programs are making the West unable to compete globally.  The West needs to get healthy, productive and independent in order to bring middle class mfg jobs back.  Until that happens, the West will continue to wallow in debt and despair. 

Our hidden Jesuit rulers, through their Zionist and Masonic agents have enslaved us with poisons added to our food, water and medicine to disable our health in order to discourage challengers to their Fed banker scams if you are to follow the Big Money crimes.

This poisoning and handicapping of the population is driving the public's clamoring for more social programs as they are handicapped by our hidden organized crime Jesuit rulers.  The West is an extinct people that doesn't know it yet and they don't realize they have been mind-controlled and enslaved through Toxic Injury by this clever organized crime Jesuit cabal.

    

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