This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Where The Housing "Recovery" Is, In One Chart
Janet, we have a problem. The Fed's main policy transmission channel, since stock ownership is not widespread enough to affect the real economy's expectations, is via home equity wealth creation and animal spirit exuberance-based borrowing and leverage. As the following chart shows, the much-touted "housing recovery" pillar of the economy - that is set to take off and lift growth to escape velocity - is only evident in one place...
As Janet herself opined recently, the poor better hurry and get rich so they can buy the $1 million homes and see price appreciation...
And move to The West!!

And, while everyone assumes it is the "rich" who are flipping homes and transacting like drunken sailors at a hooker convention, the fact is that the bulk of transactions in America are in the $100k to $500k range...
Which as is clear above, are losing 'value' this year.
* * *
Obama, Yellen - we are going to need a bigger stimulus plan - cash-for-clunker-houses?
- 18919 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -




And you must speak Mandarin to apply!
I am just waiting for a "Cash for Clunkers" real estate style to comes out.
It'll be advertised like birth control is -- some cute blonde chick rollerblading with a poodle, and talking about how the government will give you a $150,000* refundable tax credit if you purchase a new "energy efficient" house, and tear down your old one.
That'll definitely get the economy going.
*Must spend at least $400,000 on the home to receive the full credit, for every $1000 cheaper than $400k the credit reduces itself by $250. So if you spend $200k on a home, you could look at it as either buy house get it for half price, OR, in the alternative, buy one get one free, that you cannot sell for 30 years at a minimum. However, if you are considered an underrepresented minority** then you receive the full tax credit, no reduction clause***.
**Only Non-Cuban Hispanics, and Blacks need apply
***If you are an underrepresented minority, after closing on your new Obamahome, you are eligible to cash-out refi and use the money for a vacation to Detroit or new Cadillac**** -- only.
****Only the ELR qualifies
For the good of the country and economy, THIS NEEDS TO HAPPEN!
Can you imagine all the wealth that would be created for such an event. To maximize its use, lets make the minimum age for home ownership 14 for Under Represented Minorites, and 18 for everyone else.
If every URM child or about 5% of the American populion purchases a $100,000 Green Obamahome, then they can still receive the benefit of the remaining $150,000 refundable tax refund and then cash out refi the $100 used for the house.
Then you have their parents, who have a job or something, and then they can afford a nicer $200,000 home, and still get $50k in the bank, then they could cash out refi and buy TWO ELRs.
I mean we are talking about trillions upon trillions of new wealth creation here, plus we would solve homelessness, and with the ELR's NFC equipment, it could be tied directly into the EBT system, and people could just driver their ELR through the McDonalds drive through and get all their meals without ever having to leave the comfort of the car. Solves hunger too.
Maybe we need to import more poors to really increase the wealth creating effects this might have. What about a ton of brand new teenages from south of the border?
What gets me is that people still vehemently argue on message boards that Obama has "saved" the economy. They are in for a surprise when the curtain comes down.
http://www.hybridcars.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014-Cadillac-ELR-0...
The poor can apply for work at Alibaba... /s
I thought they already solved homelessness by making it illegal to be homeless.
I'm sure outlawing homelessness will work exactly as well as outlawing drugs in America.
So invade Syria?
Great program!!! Barney? Is that you?
hey...dis' border on raciss...if'n I get a BOGO 'bama-house, I got's lots 'a EBT to put in it...plus, I 'ca have 'ma peeples ova', fo' a raise-da-rent...sides, wut choo makin' fun my El Dorado fo'...dat's a cold El Dorado...got some prollem wid De-troit? All ma' peeples lives ova'-dere...
arm yourself, the time may come when holding your hand over your anus is not sufficient...
We are is a depression. We are on barrowed times.
Don't tell that to people who voted for Obama. They think the economy is saved...until their EBT runs out.
I'd wait to buy.
Rates stay low fo'evea bitchez!
'MURICA !!!1!!!!111!!
Bullish
Thanks to the flipper fad starter homes are near impossible to find. Everyone seems to think their $20,000 flip on a $30,000 house is worth $140.000. I just don't get it. If interest rates were higher and there were logical loan standards, this shit wouldn't be happening. Property rates will be affordable in Ferguson.
yep.. 20+ years of late night info mercials, pimpin thier books on how to flip...celebrated as murican #1 make money easy man... has also contributed to our fucked status. much like wal mart selling cheap chinese gizmos.. was great for a few years, but now we have zero manufacturing, and we are fucked yet again..just another piece of the big puzzle!
"now we have zero manufacturing, and we are fucked yet again..just another piece of the big puzzle!"
Another piece of that puzzle is 1960s and 1970s when green boomers drove manufacturing offshore via government lawsuits against US manufacturers of major goods and jobs that supported families and college educations for kids. Effed themselves and their kids good. Must have clean air! Welcome to Utopia.
Don't knock clean air. It's important if you're living under a bridge or in a cardboard box, neither of which are equipped with HEPA filters.
Give it time... the reality is incomes can't compete with those higher prices and the "true" value of those homes is closer to the prices the non-improved / non-flipped home in the same hood. Private Equity is no longer buying because prices are too high... won't take long for invetories to rise and prices to drop like lead.
"Private Equity is no longer buying because prices are too high... won't take long for invetories to rise and prices to drop like lead."
The Fed will never let home prices collapse. As soon as they start dropping, the Fed will start buying mortgages and underwater assets again. hedge Funds will flip their assets to the Fed with over market assemtments and make billions from Fed printing. The Fed won't care if the assets rot, all that matters is they keep the bubble inflated. The Fed has been keeping the bubble inflated for about 30 years now, everytime it begins to pop, they patch and start ejecting liquidity.
The only think the Fed can't print is more Oil, we are very close to global peak production. Once we are on the other side the global economy will begin to crumble. At worst, gov't will go to war to secure the remaining oil left, and probably triggler WW3.
Is sales distribution by number of units or total dollars transacted? Serious question.
At least the important people are making money. Janet, any hints on how we can get +$1million homes, so we can also participate? Your suggestion to 'get assets' was a little vague.
Start small: buy an Escalade.
Too bad they stopped making Hummers. I'd like to buy one for a mobile home.
Here ya go:
http://www.hummermarketplace.com/
buy a scanner/printer and print your own money
Just let her print a few more years, and the whole country will be like Silly Con Valley, with dumps priced in the stratosphere.
My biggest fear is accompanying tax increases. Since I'm not "in the club," the assessor might take a liking to my place. Which is why I have an old car rotting in the driveway, as well as a shed/barn that needs repaired and moved closer to the garden.
This may be true Tylers, but what percentage of the +$1m houses does the 2.3% of overall equate to - you'll probably find the rich are flipper like fuckers.
Not flipping, but they are selling.Cashing out I'm thinking.
Two of my oligarchs clients have just sold their mansions up North(Ma and NJ).
Two of the smarter ones I might add.
Cash - for Bunkers?
Dwellins from Yellen?
Yellen - FHRITP?
I love sharing this stuff, ya know, facts, on FB etc... really quickly provides the evidence of who the biggest suckers are in my audience, the ones that want to argue with .. well.. evidence. usually real estate selles, of course.
Nobody has any fucking money, but they do have the latest iCrap with zero money down and financed over the next 18 month, which is just long enough for them to finance the latest iCrap which will have big improvements like the ability to make phone calls.
And they can afford to spend days in line to get it.
Does Apple accept EBT cards? If so, the peeps could upgrade from the Obamaphone to the iCrap
yeah, dey except da EBT in da back, wid dee 'bamaphones...
Agree....iphone6 buyers are the quintessential definition of sheeple! No limit to how gullible (stupid) people can be. iphone technology close to 2yrs behind Android in most cases...
http://www.businessinsider.com/graphic-iphone-6-v-nexus-4-2014-9
affordable is not where you want to live...trust me
You're right, I'm priced out now those 1$ homes in Detroit have trippled in value.
Saw it first hand here in Upstate New York. "Houses for a dollar." Of course the assessed value wasn't a dollar...but that was the value of the house once the Federal Government and Senator Bradley from New Jersey wiped Rome, NY off the face of the earth.
Would appear the war effort didn't work either. Got a lot of nice motels going up everywhere though. Do those count as "housing starts"?
Commercial real estate seems to still be going strong...dont know why..but it is..
because of ZIRP...yield reach
Obamahouse?
dats da good idea, 'bamahouse plus da 'bamaphone plus da EBT...he gon' pay my house payment...
The low end out west was down -32% yoy. So it only pays to be a millionaire out that way. Otherwise your home is experiencing an equity crush.
The owners of these homes are the ONLY ones included in all those 'consumer sentiment' surveys!
The title said there would be only one chart.
Ho li phuk.. "cash for clunker houses".. why didnt I think of that.
Well Just tear down your ol pos shack..and build a newer bigger better fancier one... with zero interes (for the first ahem couple years..ahem).
Friggin jumpstart this economy like a mutha.
:/
yeah, dat da bee mo'fo'...da wef affect, makin' me want a bee mac...dem mu'fuggas fill you up...ma peeples works down dere...
Yeah, I know.
Town newspaper said the other day (quoting, I guess, the folks at our always-popular county assessor's office) that real home "values" may be down (they are WAY down, double digits) but taxes will be up. Road construction in our area is booming. Who's going to use these new 6-lane roads? Same in the state just north of us.
Dude, you're really ax'in who??? Well, it's the illegal Mexicans, that's who. Now open your wallet and stop being so "ray-sis"!!!!
No, man, it's for the MRAPs. Do they get a freebie at the new toll booths on the Interstates?
And so it begins...
Values down, taxes up, make-work "jobs" for the unemployed.
In a quickly increasing spiral...
I have also seen a curious increase in road construction/bridge repair where i live, which is deep south.
Dont worrie when the next crisis hits the helicopter will take off again
chong chong chong chong
Long on RV sales! Mobile banking mobile communication in a mobile society!
For the 95 (or is it 99?) percenters it seems nuts to own a house (that you don't really own anyway), when you have little confidence that your job(s) will be there to float the mortgage or that you'll be able to easily sell it to move to the new job(s) (jobsite?-yeah, they do that shit too!). When everything is manipulated you need a script and a witch doctor to get the timing right.
That looks healthy and sustainable.
An American, not US subject.
philly housing index bounced late last week to 203
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-daily-index-bounce-wave-...
but once again, it doesn't hold and we are at 195 - incidently, the all time high was 290 in 2005 - here we are 9 years later and we've merely retraced
what does this indicate? it indicates that there has never been a housing recovery and that we are likely to get below March 2009 lows over the next two years
these fags on TV make flippin look cool. million dollar listing!
Idiot 'flippinginvestor'/school bus driver across the street has been trying to unload one of his 'investments' for about six months now, haha.. I tried to tell him about chasing cars.
..also the braindead Realtor next door to him seems to have a lot of free time lately..
yo- dem chickens are starting to come home.
I would never have guessed it: the American Dream means socialism.
cash for clunkers...hmmm..dont tell krugman.. he will say build 5 million x$1 million houses to fit the upsurge in income brackets just around the corner.
i guess he would put up all the displaced millions in hotels and have them all full (+ve for GDP) on a drip fed basis so that GDP would have a nice upward trajectory as well
+10
A new meaning for "hotel California".
Of course, in actual fact, what the economy really needs is... an absolute, complete, utter wipeout of the entire real-estate market, where prices fall 80% or 90%. Then young folks could then actually afford to buy, and have some money left over after paying their mortgage payments... if they had payments at all.