CDC "Taking Precautions In US", Fears 1.4 Million Africa Ebola Cases By January

Tyler Durden's picture

While WHO Director Thomas Frieden's "gut" says the worst-case scenario won't come to pass (thanks to the actions that are being taken), the CDC is about to release its Ebola-epidemic scenario tool that suggests up to 1.4 million infections by mid-January. As The NY Times reports, these figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported. In the best-case model, the epidemic in both countries would be "almost ended" by Jan. 20, the report said. Perhaps more worrying is the WHO report also, for the first time, raised the possibility that the disease would not be stopped but would become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could become a constant presence there. Aid group Samaritan’s Purse is gravely concerned at the spread of the disease, fearing "it's too late. Nobody's going to build 100,000 beds."



Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.

  • *CDC: MMWR ESTS. 550,000-1.4M EBOLA CASES BY JAN. 20 '15



As NY Times reports,

In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. It showed the proportion of patients now in such settings as about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.


“My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass,” Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the C.D.C. director, said in a telephone interview. “But it’s important to understand that it could happen.”


The current official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.




The W.H.O. report also, for the first time, raised the possibility that the disease would not be stopped but would become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could become a constant presence there.




Ken Isaacs, a vice president of the aid group Samaritan’s Purse, said, “I believe inevitably this is going to move into people’s houses, and the notion of home-based care has to play a more prominent role.” He said there could be 100,000 or more cases by the end of 2014.


“Where are they going to go?” Mr. Isaacs asked. “It’s too late. Nobody’s going to build 100,000 beds.”

*  *  *

We can only hope such vastly horrible numbers are modest scaremongery to ensure CDC/WHO are funded correctly... because if not, forget African economic growth for the next decade...

*  *  *

The NY Times goes on to discuss what it's like on the ground in Sierra Leone...

The Ebola epidemic is spreading rapidly in Sierra Leone’s densely packed capital - and it may already be far worse than the authorities acknowledge.


Various models of the growth of the epidemic here “all show an exponential increase,” said Peter H. Kilmarx, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention team in Sierra Leone. “The conditions are amenable to Ebola spread.”


“Since last month, it’s every day, any minute and hour, and often, they are coming” to bury the Ebola dead, said Desmond Kamara, a police officer.


A cloudy stream drains from the area of the new graves into the slum, further frightening the residents.


“We are at risk, big risk,” said Ousman Kamara, a resident. “We have made many complaints.”


But the bodies, he said, keep coming.


“Even at night,” he said. “You stand here, and you see them coming.”

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auntiesocial's picture

Get all of the Ebola victims corporate jobs in Manhattan at JP Morgan Chase...

Chuck Norris's picture


Wake me up when Ebola kills more civilians than the U.S. government

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Disease?  Epidemic?  In Liberia? 

Zirpedge's picture

If the government shut down in the US, this would be your neighborhood in two weeks. 

hedgeless_horseman's picture



If the government shut down in the US...

Fortunately, there is no more debt ceiling, no more sovereign downgrades, and no more political opposition to spending like drunken sailors, so there isn't any chance of that!

hedgeless_horseman's picture



I am sure that the second photo of a walkable community with living quarters above shops and a wide promenade with diagonal parking to buffer the traffic (in New York!) will give JHK a hard-on.

Clearly, the problem with Liberia is too many much parallel parking.

kaiserhoff's picture

You're on a roll today HH.

Been to happy hour with knunks;)?

hedgeless_horseman's picture



No, but I did see him in the holding cell for Room 101.

COSMOS's picture

That Liberia picture looks better than Detroit, lol

Zirpedge's picture

The Liberian recycling program is commendable, but all that standing water is hopefully being diverted to a grey water system for the local golf course. Talk about sportin a chub, I'd like to see the look on those dudes faces when I roll up in my UN cruiser and blue helmet askin to see their manifests. 

kaiserhoff's picture

Ebola will kick start this thing, but cholera, typhoid, and the rest will finish it.

It's amazing they have survived this long, but India is probably worse.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I actually expect to see  the old school diseases return due to the mass influx of illegals. TB is already making a comeback in some area's.

Osmium's picture

Looks more like piss than water.

thamnosma's picture

Actually the first photo is what the second photo will look like when the EBT cards run dry

SamAdams's picture

Come to think of it, I haven't seen any pics of the epidemic.  Has anyone seen pics of actual Ebola victims?  If I understand the math based on exponential contagion, there should be many pics to verify.  You know what, screw it.  Let's send GI Joe to kill it.

Zirpedge's picture

Hemmoragic fever is just too graphic for the internets. Let's all take a moment to bow down and thank the great google spider for filtering the offensive material.


All I know is that when the EBola vaccine becomes available, I'm lining up for it like it's the Iphone 7 already.

TeamDepends's picture

Only a complete idiot would stand in line for an untested vaccine manufactured by a Monsanto subsidiary and funded by Bill Gates.

paul steinert's picture

I'll be one of those idiots.  Western medicine has served me well so far.  I'm not afraid of throwing a few bucks to big pharma when they actually produce some effective meds.

TVP's picture

Read the insert that comes with the shot.  It reads: 

"With this vaccine, as with all vaccines, the chance of serious injury or death is small".

In other words, this might kill or maim you.

Not surpising when you learn the ingredients: Mercury, Aluminum, formaldehyde, bovine protein, MSG...

But hey, it's only a little bit, so don't be paranoid about the potential catastrophic injury or death.  Just get in line and get your shot like a good sheep.  If you speak out or question anything, you will be discredited to the moon and back.  

Ocean22's picture

It's worse than that. See how you are slowly being poisoned by the elites.

Ocean22's picture

Yup no pics. Very suspicious.

HobbyFarmer's picture

Point taken, but not my neighborhood.  This morning as I walked out to feed my chickens, I watched several deer eating the remains of the green bean harvest....they were in the next 40 acres over. 

Beautiful morning. 

Anyway, pick your neighbors wisely.

NidStyles's picture

How in the hell is that a point? It's an opinion that's been proven false numerous times..

HobbyFarmer's picture

The point that after 2 weeks of no services (gas deliveries, electricity, running water, garbage pickup), no just-in-time deliveries, and a shut down in society as we know it, even the most civilized neighborhood would be looking dangerous and filthy with garbage piling up, rats having an orgy in the streets, and everybody looking sinister/hungry.  -- think post-katrina --

My point is that is why I choose to live in the country where my neighbors are hundreds of yards away. 

Didn't down arrow you and don't care if you down arrow me, but that was the point I got from the image of filth above: come what may, I'm in the neighborhood of my choice.

NidStyles's picture

You're the one sowing discord here. If your neighbors are that much of a threat to you, then perhaps you should quit being a paranoid lunatic and say hi to them. 


They are paranoid humans just like you, and the issue is not them being your neighbors and a threat, the issue is that you think you can survive alone and isolated. 


That you have so much support in your comments is a reflection of the mentality some of you have and how ill it is. No one is out to get you, and sure when times are tough people might act in desparation, but it's not to target you. It's because you never stepped up to be the man in the situation and provide leadership. 


So, if you do read this reply, you will hopefully understand that the failing is your own, not society's. 

Citxmech's picture

Wanting to have space between yourself and your neighbors doesn't necessarily mean you're anti-social.  In order to have any chance of living without grid-tied inputs, you're going to need an acre or two of arable land a good reliable source of clean water at a minimum.  More land and infrastructure would be better.  

Homesteading my be an exercise in self-reliance and resiliency - but this lifestyle thrives in tight communities as well (tight as in "cooperative," not as in "proximate").


HobbyFarmer's picture

I came back and read your reply. 

I think you're extrapolating a bit much in judging my reasons for living in farming country, but to each his own.  Most the people living out here grew up in the country.  I couldn't wait to get out of Phoenix (near the airport).  So, I've had my share of 'too many people' and choose the quieter lifestyle I now enjoy.  I never mentioned living in isolation....I do, however, love having the freedom of space that allows my boys the chance to pee anywhere on my property they wish without it causing septic runoff like HH's picture above.

If the day comes in our lives and tshtf, we'll see who handles it and who doesn't. 

Having a couple dozen friends show up my door (or your door if you're in the city) who do you think will survive?  The person with land, experience raising food, good soil, and preps...or the people pictured in the slums above?  I may live 1/2 mile from my neighbors, but that doesn't mean I don't have solid and close friendships.  I hold 7 am saturday morning farm workouts here if you are ever in the neighborhood and want to meet a few of my neighbors and me.

You don't need to reply but are welcome to and I promise I'll give you the final word if you feel you need it.  I'll check back and read your posts.

Whether you return or not, best of luck.

Exponere Mendaces's picture

Most posts on ZH are of the eagerly-fapping variety thinking about the downfall of civilization, and how they will be the lucky ones, having stacked their PM's, ammo, and supplies.

Naturally, it escapes them that all they are doing is gathering resources for the strongest person to take it from them. But no, they'll be on 24 hour watch, vigilant like unblinking satellites in orbit to protect their compounds when the ravening hordes come calling.

Yep, all safe and sound, eagerly awaiting the burning of the cities, the last spit of electricity, just long enough to post on a now-empty forum "I told you so".

Its delusion of the highest order.

Dr Strangemember's picture

I saw a squirrel this morning.  

pot_and_kettle's picture

On the way to the subway I saw a waterbug the size of a construction boot.

It flipped me the bird as I passed.

I wanted to cry.

PRO.223's picture

I saw six wild turkeys as I went out to milk my Jersey this morning.

Martian Moon's picture

Perhaps, but two weeks later it would be clean again

People here, in some neighborhoods, would quickly replace .gov services, so good they're always offered at gunpoint, with better privatized services

Other people, in other neighborhoods, would look exactly like the image above


Renewable Life's picture

Ohhhhhhh god, another federal government worshiper!!!

Ya and four weeks after that, the AR15 brigades of volunteers would be cleaning up the trash and burning the bodies and reforming local control over their own communities and the federal government wouldn't be seen anywhere or needed!

And what makes West Africa different then Anywhere, USA, oh ya the AR15 part, hmmmmmmmm

TeamDepends's picture

"Precautions" such as letting a ship with a sick crew which just sailed from the hot zone dock in New Orleans. But don't worry, everything is under control! It is looking like they are going to use ebola to bring down this house of cards. Remember, CDC holds the patent for the virus (?), and Gates and Monsanto will be offering up the vaccine. Story at

Gringo Viejo's picture

Looks the the flea maket in Oakland to me.

Mi Naem's picture

WOW, look at all that FREE STUFF!  I had no idea.  I'm movin' there this afternoon. 

RadioactiveRant's picture

My neighbourhood in Brent, London looks like that.

Ebanga Planti's picture

You should not be sleeping then because Ebola deaths may as well just be included in the counts of the U.S government deaths.

or you may as well just sleep forever because a subset will never surpass the main set.

Enceladus's picture

Don't hit the snooze button yet. This may be some of their finest work.

OpTwoMistic's picture

Closing the borders? No. oops

RattNRoll's picture

Sounds like the NWO's wet dream via Georgia Guidestone.

"Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature."

Stoploss's picture

Ted Turner's thing there.

The_Dude's picture

Caught this the other day...looks like they updated the guidestone for 2014......maybe to commemorate the launch of their bioweapon

I'm starting to understand why the Intelligentsia get targeted in so many revolutions....pompous MF'ers

SilverRhino's picture

What I find really interesting is that this site has gone dark on updates. 

Last Entry for West Africa: 9/4/2014

Before that it had been running like clockwork every 4-6 days.

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Hey, I thought Ebola was nothing to worry about. 

Did they lie to us?  First time for everything ....

Alea Iactaest's picture

We knew we were being lied to, we just didn't know the extent of the lie.

"...these figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported."

Now get your head around the idea that even this statement is a lie. What does the model look like to go from roughly 6,000 official cases (and 3,000 official deaths) today to 1MM+?

I knew, from tracking the official data since late June that the math behind Ebola would be a bitch, but I had no idea. Write off west Africa? Seems awfully convenient for somebody. Wonder if it ends there...

NoDebt's picture

We already sent 3000 troops there to be infected and bring it back to the US.  We're doing everything we can to spread this disease far and wide across the globe.  Our scientists are working day and night to weaponize it.  What more do you want from us?

If this whole global pandemic thing burns itself out and stays mostly contained to West Africa, don't look at us.  We did everything we could.