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Why Institutions Are So Desperate For The Retail Investor To Come Back

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the S&P 500 levitates ever higher on the back of what even JPM and Citigroup now both admit is nothing but a global central-bank reflated bubble which, hardly a spoiler alert here, will burst sooner or later leaving those who are holding the bag with unprecedented losses, one thing is clear: the retail investor is not coming back. Whether it is a complete lack of trust in a market that has been revealed to be more rigged than any casino, or because every risk asset is artificially propped up by a few Princeton economists, or simply because the "retail" investor does not have the disposable income to come back, is irrelevant: retail is done.

There is, however, a problem.

As the exuberant talking-heads proclaim, day after day, that "this is the moment of clarity for retail to come storming back off the sidelines", the question arises who exactly would retail be buying from?

The answer: the same institutions whose proximity to the Fed has allowed them to lever up at near zero cost of debt rates, and who have bid up risk to unprecedented levels, pushing the S&P over 2000 in recent weeks. Of course, those are all paper gains, as institutions know all too well. Which is why the time to monetize paper profits is now, and why with every day that retail refuses to come back and buy what institutions are increasingly desperate to sell, is one day more in which the day of "paper profits into very real losses" reckoning approaches.

This epic divergence between institutions and retail is shown in the JPM chart below.

Needless to say, it won't take much is for the rickety game theory equilibrium in which not one institution has dared to sell, over fears what would happen if every other institutions rushes in, finally breaks.

It is also why every media outlet, newspaper, ant TV channel has a simple message for you, dear retail investor: please come back already, and buy, buy, buy... what every bank, prop desk, hedge fund, mutual fund, pension fund, and central bank, is so desperate to sell.

 

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Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:35 | 5247827 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The well might not be dry yet, but it is totally poisoned.

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:36 | 5247848 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I can't even remember the login information for my long-dead self-directed IRA.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:40 | 5247856 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Ah, so the banksters are up to their ears in over-inflated assets, again... Deja Vu all over again... 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:40 | 5247871 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

yes its really that simple......they've lost the CON

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:47 | 5247916 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not quite.  How many people today are forced to participate through their 401k plans...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:51 | 5247934 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Many in 401k are crowding into the bond trade just to avoid allocation in equities.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:53 | 5247949 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

yes, but that doesn't mean that it isn't the same cookie jar with the same greedy hands in it...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:05 | 5247970 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

 

Which is why the time to monetize paper profits is now, and why with every day that retail refuses to come back and buy what institutions are increasingly desperate to sell, is one day more in which the day of "paper profits into very real losses" reckoning approaches.

 

This epic divergence between institutions and retail is shown in the JPM chart below.

+$500 billion for institutions...minus $600 billion for retail? 

Pfffttttt.

Add a zero and then we are talking.

 

What I want to know is who is Janet going to sell to?  Retail's $600 billion won't get very far into her inventory book.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:05 | 5248018 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Add a zero and then we are talking.

Or, add leverage and then we are talking!

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:29 | 5248128 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

Cashed out my own self dir. IRA bc I don't trust the storage place to actually have "my" allocated gold when the time comes.

All the hoops, fees, taxes(on top early distribution and income tax) etc that they throw at anyone attempting to take delivery merely confirms my suspicions that they truly don't have all the goods they say they do.

Took my cash and picked up some AG instead.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 06:20 | 5250822 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Wise move, grasshopper!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:50 | 5248628 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Won't be me, fuck you all!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 22:33 | 5250288 tvdog
tvdog's picture

I believe I still have 7 cents in my Fidelity account. What to buy with it?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 00:11 | 5250586 0z
0z's picture

If retail has banknotes or bank deposits, retail is in the game.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 01:24 | 5250675 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

JRobby; Won't be me, fuck you all!

Well starting to look like if we take money out of the Bank and buy Gold, Silver, Platinum or whatever...

Then the government comes after us for some new penalty or tax or fee. I mean by withdrawing USD from the banking system... they may be afraid of loss of value or assets.

Could be a system could recognize gold or PM sales to avoid this, but basically that is just a power we don't want to see. Give an inch and they take a mile. If they start tracking gold sales & PM sales then ...maybe they can use them as some kind of construct for collateral... figure when baby boomers die that Gold & Precious Metals come on to the Market again as scrap and at scrap metal prices.

Sorry didn't think this out very well. Clearly the Fed could be tracking gold sales & PM sales and looking to see where they go and if it is of value to the economy when they reappear.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:02 | 5248009 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

I think the most misunderstood dynamic in investing by those who own 401k’s is that if they sell their equities to get into money market funds, they are buying debt, a far bigger bubble.  I was astounded when rates dropped during the debt ceiling debate when there were members of the govt saying that they were willing to default if the ceiling wasn’t raised.  People were selling equities because that’s what they have been trained to do during times of financial turmoil, but they were buying the one thing that could have been worth zero if the govt followed through on their warning.  Eventually when there is s a real debt crisis people will initially make this move until they realize that that money market fund is rapidly going down in value.  The shock will cause the reaction to be the most violent in economic history.

Yes stocks are bad right now, but bonds are horrid.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:08 | 5248036 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Well sir, I suggest you close out those bond positions, go longer equities, and retire to your sunny beach with cute bartenders and umbrella'ed drinks!

I would much rather be in MMMF (bonds) than equities when this shit rolls over.

In the long run, you are right ... but that will be after a huge crash in equities.

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:05 | 5248014 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

My retirement account is 100% money market. If I could do something else with the money, I would, but I can't. So, in this sense you are correct LoP.

However, if all those 401ks/retirement plans/etc out there have similar behavior ... then the ZH articles about shutting down MMMFs make a lot more sense; close it off and force an auto-allocation to flaming bags of shit on the front porch at 2am while the sheeple sleep ...

Regards,

Cooter

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 06:25 | 5250824 StychoKiller
Tue, 09/23/2014 - 20:59 | 5249998 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

smartest thing I heard in here all week. 

And look what they are doing to the market. -- Have a look at the russel chart here ==> http://bit.ly/1B4K0wk

notice anything familiar. ? No.... Its seems the market likes to crash about every 7-8 years right now. And they love to scam people, first...the last scam was the HOUSING BUBBLE that fell on its arse. The next one will most likely be the FED Q1, Q2, Q3, i mean shit....do you think they do not know what they are doing?? Of course they do, they are just looking for the next excuse to rope the sheeple in to take their money. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:39 | 5247862 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Well maybe it's because anyone over 35 already lost their ass in the tech bubble, then the housing bubble, and are finally waking up...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:08 | 5248035 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

That would be me.  Haven't played in their casino since the last crash and won't again.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:09 | 5248041 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Add me to the list.

I am busy stuffing cash into a safe deposit box and getting down votes on ZH for saying so!

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:42 | 5248192 Kprime
Kprime's picture

just as long as that safe deposit box is not inside a bank. Day will come when the banks don't open for a month and when they do they will have confiscated the bigger share of all accounts and boxes.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:42 | 5248569 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

I agree w/ kprime on this Cooter. That could be dangerous. Perhaps you should consider something more under your control? There are many options in this regard. Don't forget the bait safe that they will gravitate towards and thus ignore your real stash location.

Miffed;-)

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:35 | 5248155 Taffy Lewis
Taffy Lewis's picture

are finally waking up...

Not really. My stupid friends who got their asses handed to them in 2008 are gloating now about how great their retirement funds are doing in this bull market. For awhile I was telling them "take profits and pay a penalty" but now I just shut up.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:53 | 5248640 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

The people picking up flapping fish on the beach always laugh at those running for the hills. The hill runners may be seduced and go back for the easy catch. However a hill runner by his very nature, being awake to the danger,realizes he risks his life. He makes a choice.

The people on the beach are ignorant and will survive by simple dumb luck if they survive at all. They live by impulse.

In my experience, people are just one or the other. There is very little movement between the two.

Miffed;-)

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:53 | 5248655 JRobby
JRobby's picture

I woke up dead. I don't miss my old friends much. There are many new ones just like me.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:47 | 5247924 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Wasn't the password Millionaireby2008?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:50 | 5247930 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Thank you Institutions for buying our shit and holding the bag...

Looks like a dumb money chart more than anything.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:10 | 5248046 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

THey are just educated commission monkeys who are decent at math, nothing more.

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:59 | 5247986 madcows
madcows's picture

just file a FOIA from the IRS/CIA/NSA or homeland security.  I'm sure they've got it somewhere.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:06 | 5248334 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

retail is broke, can't invest when your living paycheck to paycheck just for food, gas, booze and a little entertainment.  I will be epic when these mutual funds and institutions have to canibalize each other

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 06:18 | 5250820 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, I could buy 23 shares of some penny stock with mine, but the broker's commission of $10 would put the balance to -$9.77 -- so, fuggettaboudit!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:39 | 5247865 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Not smart...just out of money...they have already been pilfered and can barely afford these inflated prices across the board just to feed, clothe, drive and stay warm. Plus 0% savings rate...the middle and upper middle class have been chiseled for 6 years now and it's only getting worse.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:58 | 5247975 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

How stupid the BTFD'ers on this forum are gonna feel after being warned for 5 years, and even then not getting out in time.

/suicide

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:58 | 5247979 madcows
madcows's picture

Yup.  "Investing" falls into that "Discretionary Income" category, that has been decimated by the still ongoing depression, and inflation.  People can't invest what they don't have.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:42 | 5247875 dressguard
dressguard's picture

It your own shit you fuckers!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:43 | 5247889 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

It's always been the plan to move this sewage off the institutional books and into the "non systemic" risks category, ie individuals!!

People aren't buying it, yet! And with the US losing control of the planets reserve currency status, it most likely will never happen now!!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:48 | 5247919 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

With the birth rate declining so fast these days, the term: THERE'S A SUCKER BORN EVERY MINUTE

does not hold true any longer. That and the fact; the suckers already here have been fleeced of all

their money, leaves a shortage of buyers for the big Ponzi. That means some of the scammers will

become the next suckers. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:33 | 5248142 Kprime
Kprime's picture

there is a sucker born every minute, maybe even two.  But, the piranhas are now so thick they devour the fool in a nano second.  They are so many they now will either starve, eat their own, and turn on one another. There is no new food source.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:58 | 5247965 Freddie
Freddie's picture

It is also why every media outlet, newspaper, ant TV channel has a simple message for you, dear retail investor: please come back already, and buy, buy, buy... what every bank, prop desk, hedge fund, mutual fund, pension fund, and central bank, is so desperate to sell.

The media loves more war.  I don't watch any of their shit.

Wake up and pull the plug on TV and Hollywood's shit or be a sheep. 

Go Galt especially on the evil **cking media - TV and Hollywood or be a dumb ass serf.  F O-TV! 

F O-Hollywood!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:00 | 5247991 Democratic koolaid
Democratic koolaid's picture

Institutional education sets up the issue cause for the most part it's like fighting with one arm tied behind your back against someone with a extra 100 pounds and mad.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:01 | 5247994 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I'm stuck in my employer's 401k.  Can't take a loan, can't do anything other than monitor it.  Quit making contributions around Dec 08.  Since then I have watched it grow comically.  Last year exceeded 30%.    Was doing ok this year, but September is eating my ass.

Won't be putting any money anywhere except the mattress until there are Wall Street Perp Walks.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:34 | 5247830 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Seeing this makes me worry "the bottom" is coming soon for these investors.

And yes, that pun IS intended #financialassrape

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:34 | 5247832 venturen
venturen's picture

Why would you give your money to a broker to pay themselves for bad desision. That whole system is dedicated to absorbing all profit to itself. The whole Wall Street Cartel is eating itself alive....

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:38 | 5247855 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

FYI-  Yes, it's called a skim...

Same as it ever was... ...until it isn't.

"Full FAITH and credit" and all that...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:00 | 5247993 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

latest APMEX order on its way...
$17 Silver....
now thats some funny shit....

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:25 | 5248109 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Nice, that will keep a lot of wolfmen away.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:33 | 5248150 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

and its nice to stare it too...
somehow it makes me feel kinda - well - wealhy...
just sayin'.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:35 | 5247837 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

People are smarter than I thought. Maybe there is hope. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:35 | 5247840 dcau1
dcau1's picture

Come on! Just one more spin or roll of the dice!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:36 | 5247849 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"retail", is like saying "market"...   ...LMFAO...  

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:43 | 5247887 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Retail died in 2008

There are ELEVEN THOUSAND baby boomers RETIRING........................every single day.

 

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:46 | 5247906 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Again with such optimism.  You really think that many can afford to retire every day?  I don't fucking think so...

 

that's part of the problem IMO...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:49 | 5247926 ekm1
ekm1's picture

They expect to consume $200 trillion of goods and services that US economy and imports are supposed to provide

 

Now sink this one down:

 

$200,000,000,000,000

 

World economy is $80 trillion.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:51 | 5247941 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Again, good luck with that.  That which cannot be sustained, won't be, period.

Get long sharecropping and soylent green, beat the rush.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 23:08 | 5250399 tvdog
tvdog's picture

I am training for serfdom, the job growth opportunity of the future:

http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/serfdom-and-the-feudal-system-whats-old-...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:39 | 5248170 ClowardPiven2016
ClowardPiven2016's picture

55 and up is the only age bracket that has seen an increased percentage employed since 2008. So more like eleven thousand per day wishing they could retire.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:37 | 5247857 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Well, it looks like the smart money is the bagholder right now.

He who panics first, panics best.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:47 | 5247911 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Well, since the algos, banks, hedge funds, et al. have captured all the money, how do they think those retail investors are going to get any?  Would THEY loan money in loans certain to fail?

 

Oh!  Wait!  That's what they did before, and the givament bailed 'em out!!!

 

Hey!  Is this a plot? 

 

Craig

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:38 | 5247864 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

My broker always calling me to discuss "strategy" after I wired some cash away.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:39 | 5247867 economessed
economessed's picture

I will be glad to return to the ranks of "individual investor" the minute HFT ends, the inside information exchange ends, the manipulation ends, etc.  My expectations for an unrigged, free and fair level playing field prevent me from participating in whatever it is that you call a market now.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:48 | 5247923 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

Me too. Judging by the look of things, though, I hope cryonic preservation has come along because I expect what you just listed to take place some time in the 22nd century.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 23:10 | 5250409 tvdog
tvdog's picture

In the 22nd century, only those with cyborg implants will be trading. The naturalist minority will be hunting wolves in the wilderness and avoiding intelligent drones.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:01 | 5248000 Freddie
Freddie's picture

What about Congress being able to insider trade and also exempt from ObamaCare.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:19 | 5248085 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Thanks for reminding me... Puke!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:40 | 5247872 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Maybe the retail investor is selling stocks to raise cash.

For diapers, paper towels, food, shoes. Stuff like that.

Because all you hedge fund cocksucking shitstains outsourced their jobs to far-away lands.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:44 | 5247894 Watson
Watson's picture

Probably I misunderstand the graph, but thinking how the S&P has moved since 2007, hasn't 'retail' lost out heavily, but 'institutional' done well?

And away from that, I don't like any argument that relies on the behaviour of retail.
Governments are often wrong, but retail is _always_ wrong.

Watson

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:49 | 5247928 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Naw... 'institutional' has moved the market by selling back and forth to each other, all the while awaiting the arrival of those 'retail' ivnestors they screwed 6 years ago so they can all unload on 'em again.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:58 | 5247981 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Depends who "instiutional really is...

my guess is numerous state and federal workers with fat pensions that need to be funded.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:24 | 5248107 Kprime
Kprime's picture

the markets are now being directly bought by governments all over the world.  People no longer own any of the market, it's all institutions.  The primary institution is now the Free Printed Money crowd, beginning with .govs.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:26 | 5248110 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct and eventually all stimulus is fungible...

full on weinmar (on a global scale)...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:21 | 5248096 Kprime
Kprime's picture
You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time
Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:44 | 5247898 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

Jonathan Cahn's newest book 'The Mystery of the Shemitah : The 3,000-Year-Old Mystery That Holds the Secret of America's Future shows a clear pattern

In Shemitah Years - BIG Market Corrections / Market Crashes, and Economic Depressions happen with 85-90% certainty.

The next Shemitah Year will begin September 24th, 2014, and run until September 13th, 2015.

Feel free to laugh at the analysis and ignore it the books shows a clear track record of this 'Year of Release' being a hammer to the markets.

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:03 | 5248317 sschu
sschu's picture

911 - happened in Sept 2001

Lehman - Sept 2008

Next crash - Sept 2015?

Good possibility, Cahn's writing is Biblical.

sschu

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:31 | 5248502 Sick
Sick's picture

It is still Sept 2014  Look at the update to the Georgia Guidestones where 2014 was recently added.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_jz5c3GVVg

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:09 | 5248764 Blano
Blano's picture

What a coincidence, the next Shemitah Year starts right as his book comes out (rolls eyes).

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:45 | 5247901 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

Corporations, with their share buy-backs, are the "retail" this time around.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:53 | 5247953 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Corporationsdon't give a shit about the market.  They buy back to pump up their stocks so the insiders can sell their matured options at a big profit.  I mean, do you really think the CEO and CFO of any corporation cares about their stockholders?  Give me a break!

 

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:58 | 5247972 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I know, what an "old fashion" idea...

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:41 | 5248177 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

I think you misunderstand my point.  Corporations are buying back stock to juice their EPS, not because they think their stock is cheap.  In the late '90s, retail bought tech stocks because they thought a new paradigm was emerging, not because they thought tech stocks were cheap.  In 2006-2007, retail bought houses because they thought prices wouldn't go down, not because they thought real estate was cheap.

We have gone from "the New Economy meme in 1999" and the "Real Estate never goes down" meme in 2007 to a "Stocks are the only game in town" meme currently.  In every bubble, investors ignore valuation. 

I agree, corporations don't give a shit...neither does the Fed nor the politicians.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:50 | 5248241 paul steinert
paul steinert's picture

Well written post, H. Badger.  But you'd get a lot more up votes if you used profanity.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:06 | 5248335 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

I play that card too often as it is. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:10 | 5248772 Blano
Blano's picture

Speaking of which, is Inthemix still around?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:47 | 5247912 Conax
Conax's picture

Since this paper is such a sure thing, a road to riches, I'd think those blood suckers would just keep it all for themselves.  But no...

(the silver bears have used this line on me before)

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:47 | 5247913 seek
seek's picture

The downside to the greater fool theory is when there's no greater fool.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:31 | 5248859 JimS
JimS's picture

Yep, like being at the poker table and not seeing any suckers, which means, by definition, you're the sucker.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:51 | 5247938 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture
Retail Investor __ Come Back

No way Jose'. Nor do I trust the custodial institutions that hold investor funds.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:58 | 5247973 Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

Retail not only distrust the stock market. They hate the crooked way the game was run. And, now it is main stream news. It's a filthy crooked game that no one wants to be involved in. The next thing they will do is figure a way for the fed to buy up every last share the banks, hedge funds, pensions, and every other crook's position. Maybe they'll even do it tax free. I despise what has happend to this country.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:02 | 5251609 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I largely agree, but let us, for a moment, do a thought experiment:

Let's say that the Institutions don't want to sell at this current market price because everything else is going to hell, and that the retail market shifts back into equities because the bond markets start to unravel.  In this scenario is this:

a) Bullish for equities.
b) Bearish for equities

When have the unwashed masses ever been correct about -anything- financial?

If anything this is a fantastic contrarian indicator?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:59 | 5247974 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Lets put it this way.

The only (somewhat real people ) buying stocks.

Company A has employees who have a retirement plan, they set away a certain percentage of their paycheck to invest in the market, company A invests its employees money into stocks (from itself) and from Company B.

Company B has employees who have a retirement plan, they set away a certain percentage of their paycheck to invest in the market, company A invests its employees money into stocks (from itself) and from Company A.

 

When one of the two companies goes bust, no one will be left to buy stocks and stocks will fall its over-simplified but pretty much to the point.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:03 | 5248005 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

'Dear' Wall Street:

 

Fuck you and the bulls(hit) you rode in on...

 

Sincerely,

 

retail 'investor'

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:02 | 5248006 Badself
Badself's picture

Institutional is mostly govt related or govt insured pension funds and they will keep the market up until regime change by either the Russians and or Chinese.   All retail investors would be wise to liquidate even 401K's and buy diamonds, gold, silver, machinery and such things before our money is worthless.   

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:05 | 5248015 random999
random999's picture

Hahahahahha!!

So while the people are buying silver and gold the institutions are stuck with overvalued stocks and worthless gold papers?

Hahahahhhehahahieoahohaa.. i love it

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:05 | 5248016 ImpotentRage
ImpotentRage's picture

I cashed out my 401k to use as a down payment on my house. Still not regretting that decision.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:07 | 5248023 vyeung
vyeung's picture

Bring in the MORONS!!!! Always game for the slaughter! Professionals are out, Amateurs are in.

Squeee those tits until the last drop is milked!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:07 | 5248026 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

Even complete dumb asses can see the con is up. GDP is a atrocious yet dow gspc flirt with all time highs. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:06 | 5248028 agstacks
agstacks's picture

Time for the Wealth Effect to be made mandatory. 

"Today, congress passed the "Guaranteed Retirement for All Act of 2014" which will take the pressure off of the average citizen and instead appoint investment professionals who will oversee the accounts and ensure every citizen has access to the markets, not just connected insiders.  For too long, investment opportunity has been easy for few and difficult for many. Today, equity investments are for all.  That is why I have notified the Treasury that beginning today,  5% of all payroll checks will be deposited into your Seniors Compensation Account Management fund  The SCAM accounts will be accessible by you directly to check on your progress, but all the difficult investing decisions will be handled by a government account manager who is qualified to make such decisions. The accounts are projected to generate an average of 15% y/y for citizens.  Because this program is so successful, participation will be mandatory."  

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:18 | 5248059 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Crazy Eddie lives forever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yYGoO5imyY

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:29 | 5248134 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Because, without participation by retail Muppets the whole debt managed market cycle comes to a screeching halt. The market can’t go down (and those in control can’t book sufficient profits on their longs) until enough suckers buy in at the top. Once the market crashes, it can’t turn back up (and those in control can’t book profits on their short positions) until those same Muppets sell out at the bottom.  No one can say precisely what price levels these events will occur. But, the process and the players are certain, every time.

Controlling and manipulating a market cycle without Muppets is like trying to build the Pyramids without slaves. It just doesn’t work.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:04 | 5248322 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the fed and fed gub will force everyone into the stinking cesspool at gunpoint for the benefit of the billionaires if need be.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:44 | 5248586 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

Confiscation of private pension plans will be the method used.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:18 | 5248409 Sick
Sick's picture

I am inclined to log onto my Etrade account and make really low bids for DOW stocks.  Anyone care to join?  Seriously.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:42 | 5248575 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

I already have a whole bunch of "stink-bids" on various tiny royalty and mining companies on the Toronto exchanges. My favourite bid is 20,000 shares at $0.005 (totaling $100).

If I get 'em, I laugh. If I don't get 'em I lose nothing.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:27 | 5248460 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

" Of course, those are all paper gains, as institutions know all too well. Which is why the time to monetize paper profits is now, and why with every day that retail refuses to come back and buy what institutions are increasingly desperate to sell"

BINGO! Give the author of that the Jackpot! Fucking insiders have made ZERO profits from this manipulated market and free access to ZIRP. Not yet, so far they have no capital gains, they need to SELL to someone to bank their asset appreciations. WHO wants to buy at these inflated prices? Oh, CNBC knows, the Retail Investor who will come charging, in a moment of clairty, off the sidelines and buy.

Ha! Fucking Ha! This really is too funny. And too true. I never made a dime in the 90's unless I sold at the right time. And all the insiders need to sell if they are to realize profit from the greatest fake bull market in American history.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 21:07 | 5250035 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

So if retailers don't step in, why wouldn't the Fed? Isn't that a possible plan-buy all the mortgage backed secusrities, buy all government debt, and if necessary, buy all the equities? Yes the rich get richer because they can sell equities at the top  -but if the Fed is the bagholder-so what? Just print more money when the real estate, bond and equity bubble collapses. The fed can withstand paper losses of huge magnitude  -they just have to print more  -and when hyper-inflation comes, no problem for the fed  -they own the hard assets.

Is this a conspiracy that is actually becoming a reality? it seems that way to me. How am I wrong?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:37 | 5248545 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

It's stories like this that reaffirms my faith in the intelligence of the average retail investor.

And the complete stupidity of the average banker and fund manager, who can only make money by rigging the system.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 20:38 | 5249933 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i do not really believe it, but i am an arrogant bastard, and i would rather sit with my cash on the side and watch as deflation unfolds (first) before the banks unload all those dollars as non-digital and blow the thing sky high.  (as revenge).

i think it's more based on the fact that the retail investor has nothing left to contribute, sure, they can watch as their previously invested 401k goes skyward, but further contributions??  not happening apparently.

i will believe it when i see it.  i don't believe.  it still think everybody has to be planting tulips right now.

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:44 | 5248588 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"dear retail investor: please come back already, and buy, buy, buy... what every bank, prop desk, hedge fund, mutual fund, pension fund, and central bank, is so desperate to sell."

 

Retail wants someone else to be the bag holder, this time.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 18:37 | 5249557 cooperbry
cooperbry's picture

It's either Retail or tax payers that hold the bag.  Pick your poison...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:48 | 5248622 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

At the moment the Social Security system in the US "invests" only in Federal Government debt.

What's the bet that will change very soon, forcing the SS system to buy these over-priced assets?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 23:23 | 5250443 tvdog
tvdog's picture

They've been proposing that since at least 2005. Not impossible it will finally get enacted:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/10/12/ryan-supporte...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:19 | 5248812 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Boomers are selling to pay their medical, college and rent...I guess that means everyone needs to sell...should show up in the market one day...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:24 | 5248836 GoldenDonuts
GoldenDonuts's picture

No Problem.  I hear Belgium is looking to diversify away from bonds.  :o)

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:44 | 5248901 damicol
damicol's picture

Want to scare your broker shitless.

Go ask him the price of the inverse etf on the S&P500

Then ask him if you buy on a 20 % margin.

Then when he answers in the affirmative tell you want to buy $30,000,000 worth and if the S&P goes down he should add up your paper profits  each time and leverage that buying more at 5X

All the way to the bottom ..

 

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:46 | 5248936 homebody
homebody's picture

Without the participation of the retail sheeple and the value of their real production, whats left is as non productive as

 

               A lizard eating his own tail for food - eventually he runs out of tail.   Welcome to the crash. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:58 | 5249003 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

... and demographics indicates that Joe and Jo babyboomer will be cashing out for the next 25 years.

Crooked Ponzi schemes that mostly benefit their parasitic creators generally only last so long before they stop working.

There is an interesting twist to this. The Fed and its owner banks will end up owning the vast majority of the equity in every company in the country, purchased with Ponzi fiat dollars created out of thin air. The only other owners will be the cabal of executives who have granted themselves stock... also out of thin air.

It is sad that work is no longer the way to provide for one's current and future needs. Gaining access to debt money created out of thin air seems to be the way the rulers of the world want it.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 16:34 | 5249162 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tmI867fAYU Go to 2 mins into the clip......

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 19:32 | 5249716 Playtime's Over
Playtime's Over's picture

People have no money after paying for all the shit Americans have come to believe they have to have. If this Christmas is a good retail it we be because folks still have some credit left on thier cards.  I will be very surprized if this one isn't the "bad Christmas". The masters of the universe keep making a fool of me and my predictions. How in THE hell can this go on for much longer.......

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 21:03 | 5250022 user2011
user2011's picture

Sounds like fishermen who overfished the area calling conservation of natural resources.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 22:51 | 5250357 tvdog
tvdog's picture

The problem is the market makes no sense. A website is worth $250 billion, but gold and silver are worth less and less? Large company stocks to up and up, while small company stocks move sideways? Why are small companies not expected to share in the massive economic expansion that is right around the corner? The economy is in the toilet, the government is lying in its statistics, everyone knows the government is lying, but because the Fed has printed 4 1/2 trillion dollars the stock market goes up and up on expectation of future earnings that everyone must know will never materialize. What have I missed?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 01:31 | 5250684 theyjustcantstop
theyjustcantstop's picture

this is what i've thought since 2008-2009, the bailouts, tarp, and the stimulus, directed by the fed.

the fed., tbtf"s, and most politicians thought they'ed raise the flag and all americans would come running to support america, ,(ie 9-11), but like me, some seen what was going on.

tarp was tbtf's payoff, the bailouts to the uaw, and corny corp."s, the stimulus went 80% to public sector unions, the workers got a 40% loss on 401k"s, and for me, the straw that broke the camels back was when gm bond holders were financially raped, breaking over 200 yrs. of contract law, because thats what the fed. told the white-house to do.

so if i were a corp. bond holder, i.d ask if what they did to gm. bond-holders is legal now, has some sort of legal president been set, are you going to have to settle for pennies on the dollar while govt. union pensions come out intact?

there's no retail money to invest, it's rushing out of savings, and 401"s for their children, (18-36 yr.olds ), living at home, or helping their children with bills if there not at home, and probably with grand-children.

i'm a believer the 2008-2009 crash is going to look good, compared to whats coming, but you have to remember this is the nwo plan, the countries with the largest gdp's, and the highest per capita income, have to be globally redistibuted.

 

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 06:34 | 5250831 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

theyjust, nice summation of 2008 to now. would that the general public got the truth of the crimes done in the name of saving the economy, while the .01% were taking most of the wealth..free corzine.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 01:38 | 5250693 Ckierst1
Ckierst1's picture

When a nation's government and politicians do things that are detrimental to the middle class there are less people able to buy things beyond mere subsistence products.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 02:59 | 5250746 CHX
CHX's picture

Buy (and get scalped) ! Awesome advice. Seems the thugs have set themselves up this time. THEY are the bag holders. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:14 | 5250982 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Deperately seeking a greater fool!

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 07:04 | 5250856 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

No one went to jail after 2008- for many of us, that was the tell..the curtain pulled back and showed the elite naked hairless and corrupt. with strings pulling the puppets at the FED and in DC. No one went to jail no controlling agency (SEC DOJ) reacted. Justice is the word missing from this analysis. JUSTICE.

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