This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Chart No Fed-Loving Equity Bull Wants You To See
If tapering isn't tightening.. and it's about the stock not the flow... then equity bulls have nothing to worry about. However, this chart suggests both of those flawed assumptions are entirely incorrect...
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
»
- 11069 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
What if Japan, Europe and China aren't tightening, but instead moving to full-blown?
Then you will se continuation of USD up and S&P will start to go down
"...will start to go down..."
That's what she sadi?
Its interesting to note that the red line (SP500) was moving ahead of the blue line (FED Assets), until recently. How do we interpret the change in the interrelationships here?
S&P has a lot of catching up to do (to the downside). which is why they say: stairs up, elevator down.
Non-Fed agents were acting in anticipation of Fed moves, and now they're not. Presumably that means they don't trust the Fed or that the Fed isn't telegraphing their moves as clearly, or that the Fed was using agents in the past to influence the market and now they're doing it directly.
"that the Fed was using agents in the past to influence the market and now they're doing it directly".....Exactly. There does not appear to be a need to hide what they are doing. No real traders left. Just directly manipulate stimulate. Much more efficient.
Forget what you knew from the past. Ride it to the end. When the crash comes, and it could be years, the money lost won't be at the top of your concerns.
The spice must flow
Or that they don't know how to play the Fed's moves anymore, whether or not they trust the Fed. I suspect that it started out where people were trying to anticipate whether what the Fed was planning would work, then it moved on to anticipating what the Fed will do next, and I think now it is moving toward anticipating how the majority of others will anticipate, and since no one really knows anything, things have kind of just gone up and down fairly randomly.
Or in other words, perhaps everyone has lost the ability to differentiate between signal and noise, and so their further actions are just creating more noise. I suspect that means the next big upward move in the markets will have to be in response to some surprise "dovish" Fed announcement (untaper?).
"red line (SP500) was moving ahead of the blue line (FED Assets)"
So............................................, is that offside or icing?
Like during the 80s? Oh, wait... A strong dollar may just be foreigners parking themselves in $s to maintain purchasing power...that money will find its way into the stock market. A strong dollar also may be CBs printing the shit out of Euro, Yen and Yuan, converting it to dollars and buying ETFs. Your college textbook didn't include examples of QE to this extent. All of that fiat will go somewhere
"All of that fiat will go somewhere.." *wink* *wink*
That's what she said?
"...moving to full-blown?"
That's what she said?
Bullshit, the Fed Balance sheet is not shrinking.
Only if you add in Belgium is the Fed expanding
Come on
Reverse Repo anyone?
Total QE = official QE + Shadow goverment bond buying + new normal reverse repo expansion + Chinese millionaire real estate purchases
"...is not shrinking."
That's what she said?
check left axis
still positive but growth rate slowing
Thanks, but yes, I still doubt the 2% ROC number...
You are correct sir. if anything it is in a static mode. What you see is a shrinking of the increasing. This is commonplace in the new normal.
Mass Fraud should be a crime against humanity.
Please support this petition at whitehouse.gov.
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/mass-financial-fraud-should-be...
The petition needs 150 signatures to go "live" to the public.
See last two sentences of this.
http://occupywallst.org/forum/higher-education-panders-to-intellectual-s...
See last two sentences of this.
http://occupywallst.org/forum/higher-education-panders-to-intellectual-s...
The Fed created the fraud you fucknut.
There is no tightening going on in a world where all the central banks are working in unison.
Posted as the S&P marches right back to 2000 like nuthin is wrong!
So -20% between now and January 31st?
Would have thought that expectations of the end of the spice would have kicked in a couple months back, as per previous cycles.
Unless this time "investors" have become trained to expect newest version of QE (BTFD also means never Sell if you are already fully invested).
As long as ZIRP persists, the bulls don' need no steenking charts.
F/X is completely disconnected from this equity rampfest. Yes usd/jpy moved back to the 109.00 area (50 pips) but I would have expected a much bigger move on the back of that .05% usdx spike and the 1.36% rise in 10s.
This looks like a good old fashioned squeeze in front of the Jobs & Durable Goods releases manana'.
It sure squeezed me outa my shorts today!
Short it later. Maybe Asia late-late, or Europe a few hours before the jobs release. You should be able to get a few of those pips back. Over bought on the hourly.
Massive short squeeze into the quarter close...... Buy Stawkss......LOL
I DON'T KNOW, so BOTH flow AND stock are shown:
http://www.showrealhist.com/RHandRD.html
this is actually bullish for stocks. cause it means they can start pumping again in future. cause they have CONTROL.
And you have Brawndo. Brawndo's got electrolytes.
so there's a ton of variation in the correlation on the right - what are the biggest anti-correlative [of you will] affects?
You need devaluation of Yen and Euro and lots of liquidity coming into the end of tapering.Foreigners playing it safe buying U.S. assets like crazy.Money coming into NY and disappearing from those markets.Big demand being placed for Dollars.It'll drive the EUR/USD down to 1.20,just give'r time.The Fed and Treasury will hold up the bubble pig at any cost.Inflation or Bust.
For months the major world currencies have traded in a narrow range as if held in limbo by some great force. This has allowed people to think we were on sound footing as central banks across the world continued to print and pump out money chasing the "ever elusive growth" that always appears to be just around the corner.
Weak demand for goods and most of this money flowing into intangible investments inflation has not been a major problem, but the seeds for its future growth have been planted everywhere. John Maynard Keynes said By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are a slew of Currency Vigilantes and they are ready to make their presence known. Weakness in the value of the Yen, Pound, and Euro must not go unnoticed. More on why this may be a signal that currency trading is about to get very wild in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/caution-alert-currencies-may-get-...
This is all a game of move around the horseshit. The recent drum beats and flames of war have distracted many people from focusing on the economy. The markets are extended beyond beyond, all this comes at a time when the IMF is calling for more QE. It seems this might be a good time to review the reasons this is economically unsound and a bad idea while markets are setting new record highs and economies continue to struggle.
The policies of the last six years have yet to produce the desired and expected results promised. As a consolation many economist, bankers, and those who have benefited greatly tell us we would be in far worse shape if we had not taken this course. Now it seems Central Banks and the IMF are clueless on how to proceed and a policy going forward. More on the lack of a clear path in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/central-banks-and-imf-clueless-on...
Who needs the FED! we should all start using bitcoin and litecoin. check out the litecoin koers.