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New Home Sales Explode Higher Thanks To... Record High Average New Home Prices?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

New Home Sales rose a magnificent (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) 18% in August - the biggest monthly rise since January 1992 albeit with a 16.3 90% confidence interval, meaning the final number may well be +1.7%. At 504k, new home sales are back at May 2008 levels (though obviously massively below the 1.4 million homes sold at the peak in 2005). As a reminder, May's 504K new home sales print was later revised later to 458K. But even more stunning, new home sales in The West rose a mind-numbing 50% in August (and up 84.4% YoY - nearly double).

And just to confuse matters, the average new home sale price rose to a new record high of $347,900. So as existing home sales are sliding (and prices dropping), new home sales are surging (to new record highs) - makes perfect sense. We await the extrapolations for how great this move is. (or the realization that it is entirely seasonal-adjustment-biased and unsustainable given the realities of mortgage applications).

New home sales rose the most since 1992:

 

But only back to late 2008 levels

 

As new home prices rip to record highs;

 

Which, even more paradoxically, happens as housing expert Trulia admits the US is building too many single family homes. To wit:

Are We Building Too Many Single-Family Homes?

What? Too much new single-family construction? It sounds hard to believe, with only 618,000 single-family housing starts in 2013, heading toward 622,000 in 2014 – far below the pre-bubble average of 1.1 million per year in the 1990s. Even when adding in multi-unit building, which is booming, construction remains a laggard in the housing recovery and is contributing less than it should to employment and economic growth.

Of course, the historical norm doesn’t tell us what the just-right level of construction is now. That depends on the rate at which new households are formed. If new construction runs ahead of household formation, more homes sit empty and the vacancy rate rises. In 2004 and 2005, during the bubble, construction of single-family homes soared to over 1.5 million units. Then, during the bust, household formation slowed, in part because more young people lived with parents. Too much housing and too few households were a dangerous cocktail during the housing bust and recession, causing the vacancy rate to climb until 2010. Since then, the vacancy rate has fallen, but single-family construction has continued to wallow near all-time lows.

Newly released data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) show that the vacancy rate for single-family homes actually ticked up a bit in 2013. That’s a big surprise. It suggests even today’s low level of single-family construction might still be too much, too soon. To determine whether we’re building too many homes, we need first to understand household formation, and then the vacancy rate.

Single-Family Rentals Increased Despite Low Household Formation Rate
To understand what’s happening with vacancy rates, let’s start by looking at changes in households and housing units in the past year broken down by owner-occupied and rented, and single-family and multi-unit:

Type of unit Change, 2012 to 2013, ‘000s Change, 2012 to 2013, % Change, 2006 to 2013, ‘000s Change, 2006 to 2013, %
Owner-occupied single-family -184 -0.3% -428 -0.7%
Renter-occupied single-family 331 2.3% 3540 31.2%
Owner-occupied multi-unit (i.e. condos) 18 0.5% -269 -6.4%
Renter-occupied multi-unit (i.e. apartments) 263 1.0% 2259 9.7%
Total single-family units, incl. vacant 226 0.3% 4701 5.5%
Total multi-family units, incl. vacant 199 0.6% 2131 6.5%
Total housing units, incl. vacant 356 0.3% 6496 5.1%
Total households 321 0.3% 4674 4.2%
Note: total housing units and total households include mobile homes, boats, RV’s, vans, etc. and their occupants.

 Since the bubble, including in the most recent year from 2012 to 2013, the largest increase of any household type was for single-family rentals. In contrast, the number of single-family homes occupied by owners declined in absolute terms, not just as a share of households, both in the past year and since the bubble.

Strikingly, household formation — the year-to-year change in total households — was a meager 321,000 between 2012 and 2013. That’s way below the 1.2 million household formation rate we’d expect given the growth in the adult population. (A separate estimate of household formation from other Census data released this week was similarly low.) Low household formation means less demand for new construction.

Multi-Unit Vacancies Down, But Single-Family Vacancies Up
The vacancy rates help us see whether construction is falling behind, keeping up with, or running too far ahead of household formation. For any housing type, the vacancy rate equals the percentage of units that are unoccupied. Unlike the “renter vacancy rate” and “homeowner vacancy rate” reported by the Census Bureau, our vacancy measure for each type — single-family and multi-unit — includes vacant homes held off the market, which is essential for understanding today’s housing market. If you ignore vacant homes held off the market, it looks like there’s a shortage of homes — but in fact there’s only an inventory shortage, not a national housing shortage. (See note.)

The multi-unit vacancy rate peaked at 17.2% in 2010 and has dropped steadily since then to 15.1% in 2013. Multi-unit buildings are leading the construction recovery, but demand for apartment rentals has been so strong that the multi-unit housing stock is filling up. Thus, the multi-unit vacancy rate has fallen, returning in 2013 almost to its 2005 level. That rate might start to level off as apartment buildings broke ground in 2013 reach completion in 2014 and add to the housing supply.

VacancyRate-MultiUnit

The single-family market tells a very different story. Even though single-family construction remains depressed compared with historical norms, the single-family vacancy rate is still high. It was 10.7% in 2013, ticking up from 10.6% in 2012, and close to its peak of 11.0% in 2011. That compares with 7.4% in the pre-bubble days of 2000.

VacancyRate-SingleFamily

For the single-family vacancy rate to move back down to bubble or pre-bubble levels, the growth in households occupying single-family homes needs to exceed the growth in the single-family housing stock. In other words, to get back to normal, we gotta fill up homes faster than we build them. That didn’t happen in 2013. Even though relatively few single-family homes were built, even fewer were filled, despite the increase in single-family rentals.

It’s worth noting that it matters where the vacant homes are. A high vacancy rate might not imply less need for construction provided that the vacancy rate is low in areas with strong population growth and housing demand. But that’s in theory. In fact, it turns out that it isn’t only economically struggling areas that have stubbornly high single-family vacancy rates. Many faster growing metros overbuilt during the bubble still have lots of vacant homes.

Wrapping up: Even though single-family construction is low by historical standards, it may still be running ahead of demand. If anything, we built slightly more single-family homes in 2013 than we filled. And on the flip side, apartments and condos are being snapped up, even though multi-unit construction has been chugging ahead of normal levels. For the housing market to get back in balance, multi-unit must continue to lead the construction recovery.

 

 

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Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:13 | 5251386 ekm1
ekm1's picture

fake data

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:17 | 5251404 Debugas
Debugas's picture

No

It just that average is a very poor indicator of what is really going on - one has to give price dynamics in every segment (hystograms by price ranges, percentiles dynamics)

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:25 | 5251445 ekm1
ekm1's picture

hence, fake data

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:32 | 5251481 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

real data " 

Mortgage Originations Down By 60-70%"

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mortgage-originations-down-by-60-7...

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 12:33 | 5252149 max2205
max2205's picture

Mortgage people don't lie ......much

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 12:44 | 5252222 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

The sales in Hemroid Creme are going to be astronomical when the BFRC (Big Federal Reserve Cock) gets slammed in everyones a**holes when they jump the rates up..

 

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:12 | 5252357 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Chef Emeril Lagasse sees a dismal future for Middle Class restaurants in Merika:

 

Chef Emeril Lagasse shot to fame as the host of a popular Food Network show that encouraged amateur chefs to try their own hands in the kitchen. But despite being one of the most recognizable celebrity chefs in the country, Lagasse's outlook on his future as a restaurateur — and the restaurant industry in general — is fairly grim. "I have nowhere to go, really — other than broke," ....

 

"And then you add all the Obama nonsense to what it's become in the last several years. I don't have anything against Mr. Obama. I'm just saying the way that, you know... the government should stay out of things. [...] Pretty soon, they're going to wipe a lot of the middle restaurateurs and restaurant cooks.

 

http://theweek.com/article/index/268690/speedreads-emeril-lagasse-i-have...

 

I'm sure Jack Ma would say Emeril simply isn't working hard enuff, he's not ambitious enuff.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:45 | 5251529 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What is so hard to understand about there being no qualified buyers until you get up into the $350k range? The data isn't fake, you just have to make an effort to understand it.

The average is only rising because there's no longer any market on the lower end for new construction (which is actually a good thing, given the oversupply).

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:55 | 5251568 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Hence fake data

 

Building is not selling

Stuffing dealers with cars is not selling

 

Cost of business is too high

Eventually suppliers of raw materials will stop delivering stuff and it is happening.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:28 | 5251461 YuShun
YuShun's picture

Chinese buyers

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:01 | 5251606 GodHelpAmerica
GodHelpAmerica's picture

Yes, averages can be VERY misleading, and such is the case with housing. I believe the froth we are all well aware of in the "wealthy" real-estate segment is greatly distorting this average to the upside.

As my thermodynamics Prof once said, "Your head could be in an oven, and your legs, simultaenously, in a freezer, and the average temperature over your entire body, would indicate that you are fine."

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:20 | 5251417 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Fed printing and government subsidized home lending  = higher home prices. 

Higher home prices = higher taxes. 

Higher taxes = bigger government.

Bigger government = less freedom.

 

ALL ACCORDING TO PLAN!!!

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:34 | 5251847 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

In the West, it's also rebuilding after fires and other natural disasters. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:21 | 5251423 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

More of the same electioneering going on

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:45 | 5251528 junction
junction's picture

Liars' statistics from an administration that supports jihadists (which is why Israel shot down a Syrian jet bombing al Qaeda terrorists in the Golan Heights, on Obama orders), protects criminals (like perjurer James Clapper) and dope dealers (the Sinaloa cartel).  Everyone is in on the lying, Republicans and Democrats, thieves willing to cover up everything from pedophile rings in Congress to the staged Sandy Hook incident to the government orchestrated Boston bombing to the World Trade Center and Pentagon drone attacks.  The again, go against Obama and you could find yourself being a suicided victim or dying in a plane crash.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:00 | 5251612 starman
starman's picture

Its not fake its faux data. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:03 | 5251622 Payne
Payne's picture

I have a new home for sale in Wrightwood CA.  It has been for sale for 4 months,  I wish this data was true for me.  I have an existing home for sale in Banning CA, completely remodeled.  It has been for sale for 2 months.  Both are priced to sell but not cheap.  If this data was true both should have sold in 45 days or less.  This data is true for Orange County, San Diego County and San Francisco area.

Everywhere else it is stagnant.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:07 | 5251651 ekm1
ekm1's picture

yes

 

Profit = Sell Price - Cost

 

You must make a profit.

 

Building is not selling

Stuffing deales with cars is not selling

 

Profit to be made needed.

Cost of doing business is too high due to Quantitative Easing.

Eventually suppliers of construction and raw materials will halt supply when not paid and they are slowly reducing supply now

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:26 | 5252436 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

True dat. My Uncle's house is in excellent shape but 14 years old. He had to reduce the price three times before a buyer finally nabbed it. Sat there even with the price reductions for a little over 8 months.

RE is 99.9% illiquid asset for 99.9% of the country. Maybe Orange County is different b/c of all the Loot flooding in from China, but most other places are dropping (esp in the North) or moving sideways ... selling to struggling Middle Class stiffs is hard since they need a two-income househld these days to afford the kids, the kids' new iCrap every few months, property taxes, maintenance for breakage, and the usualy maintenace (lawn, bg spray, etc).

New home buyers, esp the subprime, usually have very little clue how expensive and time-consuming 'home owenership' is; it's a huge responsibility and quite expensive. Taht's why the old rule of "either be able to put 20% down or don't buy" makes sense; it shows you have the income power as well as the mental skills and frugal traits to own a house.

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:00 | 5252296 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

If you only have a penny and someone gives you another your wealth has increased 100%, it's muppet bait all the way to the bottom.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:14 | 5251389 Jaspergers
Jaspergers's picture

Everything is a Giffin good when money is funny in bubble-based economies

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:15 | 5251392 RattNRoll
RattNRoll's picture

Unless you cash, forget buying.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:17 | 5251398 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Quick raise rates and blow it up again before it's too late!....... Hey wait.......

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:17 | 5251401 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Imagine that...Better than expected! Who'd a thunk it?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:22 | 5251428 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

one month statistical anomaly imo

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:12 | 5251689 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

probably

 

august had two things going for it.  

 

1) 5 saturdays and sundays.  New home sales are booked when contract signed ... not at closing.  Many of the big builders have open houses sat and sun where buyers can look and sign.  Imagine many people look/sign on weekend

 

2) august interest rates bottomed a bit ... any fencesitter probably thought now rather than wait till QE taper done (when all the "experts" say rates will rise)

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:23 | 5251435 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

would like to see the data dissected and the explanation of the west....  I assume there was a fat finger involved here.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:25 | 5251440 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

That multi-unit figure looks hinky.  Most of the top 200 metropolitan areas are doing far better than that, with many in the low single digits as far as vacancy goes (and spurring lots of new construction). Regardless, over building will surely follow.  That is the nature of the beast.  The SFR figures (new and existing) look to be correct.  New housing will drop like a stone in the lake with summer over. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:28 | 5251460 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Not bad. We get to live another day. Live it as if it were your last M'Fers.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:37 | 5251468 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Multi-unit building is booming?? Leading the contruction recovery??  Huh? Just last week ZeroHedge posted this:

 

Housing Starts, Permits Tumble Driven By Collapse In Multi-Family Units

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-18/housing-starts-permits-tumble-driven-c...

 

What's the real story? And what are the mortgage application numbers?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:49 | 5251539 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I would say that statement is in relation to the rest of the market. Here in State U. town, for example, student housing apt. buildings are going up downtown next to campus, and booming is the perfect word to describe the growth over the last four years.

Not that I'm claiming this is a recovery though, as it's really just the next "jobs program" subsidised by Yellen Inc. Cuz as we all know, after the boom, comes the bust.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:35 | 5251492 Racer
Racer's picture

12m

The Census Bureau's 90% confidence interval on the +18% jump in August New Home Sales is +/- 16.3"

 

ROFLMAO

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:42 | 5251517 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

monthly housing index says different

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-monthly-bounces-sh...

 

currently at 193

 

9 years later and there's no housing recovery

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:44 | 5251526 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

MBA purchase mortgage applications for august

week ending 8th ... -1.0% week over week ... -10.0% year over year

 

week ending 15th ... -0.4% week over week ... -11.0% year over year

 

week ending 22nd ... +3.0% week over week ... -11.0% year over year

 

week ending 29nd ... -2.0% week over week ... -12.0% year over year

 

...

 

fyi ... todays report (week ending sept 19th) ... -0.3% week over week ... -16.0% year over year

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:47 | 5251536 q99x2
q99x2's picture

This may be the reason for Bitcoins accumulation today:

Today we are announcing PayPal’s next step in helping merchants accept Bitcoin payments. PayPal has entered into agreements with leading Bitcoin payment processors BitPayCoinbase and GoCoin. Starting today, these agreements let PayPal digital goods merchants accept Bitcoin with a simple integration through thePayPal Payments Hub. This will be available to merchants in North America first.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:50 | 5251552 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Give us the YoY unadjusted unseasonalized numbers

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:55 | 5251581 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

Where is Barney Franks to halp us working class little guys with access to Affordable Housing™?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:56 | 5251587 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Housing bubble #2 going down should be apparent soon.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:08 | 5251659 edifice
edifice's picture

And, it's a double top. She ain't coming back after this one.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:59 | 5251600 Laddie
Laddie's picture

Supply and Demand.

Several years ago the US Census projected a billion population for what was once known as AMERICA by the end of this century. Recent demographic analyses would appear to hasten that date by some decades.

What is clear is that the new and improved America, courtesy of the 1965 Immigration change, is  a vastly different place from the 1950 and 1960 America. This "America" is unrecognizable from the nation that was the World Power.

The billion or more "Americans" will of course need housing, so LONG TERM it looks real good for housing and so forth.

Of course Amish can no longer find affordable land for agriculture so they are trying other JOBS.

Curious how the Sierra Club and all these GREEN GREEN GREEN types NEVER mention immigration's impact on the environment of America.

This government elected a NEW PEOPLE, that is what former Forbes editor and CBS Marketwatch writer Peter Brimelow stated.

So go long on housing, real estate, the BILLIONS have to have a hut.

I hope your children and grandchildren enjoy this NEW and VIBRANT America as NBC stated on their report a few years ago on the coming White MINORITY.

Thank goodness for H1-Bs and all the rest of the visas. Affirmative Action, SBA discrimination against White guys since 1980, btw, not to mention government set-asides.

Ah the future looks great.

How about those Zetas in 260 American cities?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:21 | 5251766 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

Don't think so

 

current population 319 million

 

LATEST census bureau guestimate has US population in 2060 @ 420 million

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012/summaryt...

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:49 | 5252554 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Must agree, Laddie, blanket amnesty will turbo charge housing as all the new citizens begin building houses for the next wave of illegals who come in to await the next election cycle amnesty, And on it goes.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:04 | 5251636 edifice
edifice's picture

My guess is, within 10-20 years, there will be a mass-conversion of "single-family homes" into MDUs; apartments, basically. Or, they'll just house 20-30 H1B monkeys per home. Kind of like what happened to the older homes near colleges, or in downtown areas, which have been subdivided. The way it is now, young homebuyers cannot afford the homes, so they rent rooms out, to people like me (who already understand they can't afford a home and don't bother with it).

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:06 | 5251639 drchris
drchris's picture

I BELIEVE! It's a truly robust and remarkable recovery. Now raise interest rates ASAP. Thank you.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:15 | 5251722 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

in 35 yrs

wages up 150%

silver up 260%

median home price up 276%

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:43 | 5251895 edifice
edifice's picture

Wages up 15%

 

Corrected that for you.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:53 | 5251954 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

I was refering to min wage, from $2.90 to $7.25

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:19 | 5251746 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I wonder how many economists will go on record that they do not beleive these numbers?  I'm guessing none - of the usual suspects.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:20 | 5251759 jomama
jomama's picture

a post from my FB feed:

Anyone wondering if we are at the top of the real estate market...just know that my all cash buyer was not even given the opportunity to respond to a counter offer even though our offer was over the asking price and all cash. There were 6 offers that were more than 10% higher than the asking price. Come on, people! Try to contain your froth, even if you have the cash! Does anyone remember cash buyers getting left in the dust at the last market top? I remember lots of 100% financing from people without solid income history or cash/assets getting stated income loans.

Seems sustainable to me!

I'm no economist but it sounds like those with money are getting ready for a currency collapse?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:25 | 5252427 adr
adr's picture

Where I lived you couldn't get close to your asking price even with all cash buyers. I took a $18k loss on a house priced at $120k that was supposedly bought at the bottom of the market.

There is NY, CA, outside DC and the rest of America.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:26 | 5251800 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Every week the new mortgages and new mortgage applications are down, and we get these obscene home sales numbers. Sales at retailers and suppliers that support stong home sales are down. Commodities that support home building are down. The number of people that are employed that support home new home sales are down.

   Who's buying all the new homes? What about all the shit still sitting on the books from 2008? Is .gov buying homes for all the illegals?

   I have been seeing a shitload of HARP commercials lately.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 14:13 | 5252663 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Might be we are just moving into the part of the devaluation cycle where cash is running into tangibles.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:41 | 5251877 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Better to build new than have a MERS tittle photocopy with Linda Green on it

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:56 | 5251925 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

This is as good a reason to BTFD as I've ever seen.  NQ is only up 15% this year and using last year as a guide it still had a good 20% more upside before DEC.  

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 12:25 | 5252116 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

A reminder: the Commerce Department’s new home sales are based on permits expected to be issued based on deposits taken or sales agreement signed and is generated by surveying a sample of builders. It doesn’t represent permits issued, financing obtained or transactions closed.  Further, there is a huge margin of error (16.3%) on the headline 18% number reported.  So, the actual number could just as easily be 1.7%.  Per the Commerce Department.

The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 4 percent.

The non-annualized, non-seasonally adjusted estimate based on survey results was 41,000 units versus July’s 38,000 — a 7.8% increase over July, but with a margin of error that makes that figure meaningless.  The unadjusted year to date through August figures were up 2% versus 2013, but with a 3.7% margin of error. Note that even the Commerce Department reports an average revision of 4%.

In sum, garbage-in, garbage-out.  When you make even a small error, and then annualize it, the results can look sensational.  Last point on this: the median price continues to drop.  Since May, when prices peaked out at $285,600, this is the third lower median price in a row.  This is not exactly a sign of a recovering market.

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:20 | 5252400 adr
adr's picture

But CNBS, Bloomturd, and the rest of the financial establishment posts these stats as pure fact. As if the seasonally adjusted surveyed data truly represents an actual transaction.

Then based on all the bullshit homebuilder stocks skyrocket along with lumber co's, Home Depot, Lowes, and the megabullshit stock of Bed Bath and Beyond.

The people that don't ever buy a thing or manufacture anything make a lot of money off the stocks that rise from pure fabricated data. Which is why the data is fabricated the way it is. It makes those people money and they can't make it honestly.

The answer is always, "Who cares if the data is fabricated, I made money." The blatant dishonesty that runs the world is incredible.

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