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Risky Business - The Most & Least 'Uncertain' Industries In America
Day after day, the status-quo hugging, momentum-chasing talking heads that infest the world of investing will pile their clients' money into 'what is working' with little regard for 'value', risk (as defined by Howard Marks), or business uncertainty. Precious metals are sliding so 'sell' anything related to the precious metals industry. Biotech and software are surging so buy it all with both hands and feet... However, as the following two charts from Harvard Business Review suggest that strategy is in fact the absolute 'riskiest' approach to managing money as they break down the most (and least) uncertain industries in America.
Although uncertainty is accelerating, it isn’t affecting all industries the same way. That’s because there are two primary types of uncertainty - demand uncertainty (will customers buy your product?) and technological uncertainty (can we make a desirable solution?) - and how much uncertainty your industry faces depends on the interaction of the two.
Demand uncertainty arises from the unknowns associated with solving any problem, such as hidden customer preferences. The more unknowns there are about customer preferences, the greater the demand uncertainty. For example, when Rent the Runway founder Jenn Hyman came up with the idea to rent designer dresses over the internet, demand uncertainty was high because no one else was offering this type of service. In contrast, when Samsung and Sony were deciding whether to launch LED TVs, which offered better picture quality than plasma TVs at a slightly higher price, there was lower uncertainty about demand because customers were already buying TVs.
Technological uncertainty results from unknowns regarding the technologies that might emerge or be combined to create a new solution. For example, a wide variety of clean technologies (including wind, solar, and hydrogen) are vying to power vehicles and cities at the same time that a wide variety of medical technologies (chemical, biotechnological, genomic, and robotic) are being developed to treat diseases. As the overall rate of invention across industries increases, so does technological uncertainty.
If your industry is in the lower left quadrant, or in the bottom 10 in the above table, you face relatively low baseline uncertainty for both demand and technology.
If you’re in the upper right quadrant - or in the top 10 most uncertain industries as shown in the Table - you require greater innovation management skills than industries in the other quadrants or in the bottom 10. In fact, among the top 10 companies of the Forbes Most Innovative Companies list (since 2011 when we started the list), more than 80% of the most innovative companies compete in industries in the top right quadrant. In other words, if you are in a high uncertainty industry, you must excel at innovation... or die.
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There's no uncertainty to precious metals. No one wants the stuff. Well, no one who decides these things, that is.
Its like Fox muting the truth about the Federal Reserve. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rM2O3gkeApU
same video kinda - but better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiPJwLP0cfM
Fabricated products on the chart twice? Or was one supposed to fabricated news?
Are Diapers and PeePads included in "apparel?"
Meh. Why lump drilling under "mining."
Drilling is the basis of everything else.
Always Bullish in the Porn Industry
This is OK, but there are many other sources of uncertainty; this is way too simplistic. Legal, geopolitical, financial risks may matter more sometimes. Real estate, for instance... not risky? Well, it is more dependent on interest rates and the financial industry, and the creation of bubbles by the Federal Reserve... where is that in this graphic?
When TSHTF PMs, food and energy are going to be essential. Anything medical is going to resort to cheap natural remedies as our medical systems are going to be unaffordable. Most pill poppers are going to worry themselves to death when they don't get what they perceive as their "essential for life" Big Pharma toxic medicine. Insurance is going to be unaffordable like all the rest of the luxuries.
It would be smart to store food and PMs and hide them as hungry armed bands are going to be roaming the streets looking for both. Electricity and water I believe will still be available providing you can cash in your PMs to afford the service. You may have to black out your windows so you don't attract the dangerous desperate. Of course being armed may be necessary but don't look like you're well fed and comfortable. You also have to blend in with the desperate.
The sheeple aren't going to know what hit them as they have been captured through toxic injury that produces a blind allegiance to the establishment. When they finally figure out the establishment was the Jesuit order acting through their Masonic and Zionist agents as organized crime behind the curtain the whole time, they are going to be devastated. They may not even get that far in their realization as they have been chemically dumbed down and handicapped through toxic injury.
"business services" aka being a drone and working for the big4 accounting firms.
good article, i agree with it 100%. if you're in IT or engienering you need to be able to spool up quick and learn or get off the pot.