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Today's 3-Step Manipulation To S&P 2,000
The last couple of hours of today's US session were quite surreal for many cross-asset-class traders. As the following chart shows, the "need" for the S&P 500 to achieve 2,000 (and green post-FOMC) was evident in a 3-step process of manipulating VIX, USDJPY, and Gold. All they could achieve was 1,999.79 highs but not without an epic last minute VIXtermination effort...
Post-EU Close, stocks had started drifting lower... that will never do... So, enter "The Manipulators"
Goal: S&P 500 to 2,000
Begin...
Step 1: Sell VIX (VXX or VIX futures most liquid and/or use dark pools to hide the volume) - S&P 500 starts to rise..
but the momentum does not hold..
Unleash Step 2: Another VIX slam but throw in some JPY jiggery-pokery just to see if we can ignite the momentum and run those 2,000 stops...
Yep - that worked... any minute now...
Oh wait, it stalled at 1,999.79...
Step 2a: Try selling gold... that should keep the rally alive...
Nope... ok... last try...
Unleash the JPY - Step 3: RUN USDJPY through 109, take out stops and that shouldbring S&P to 2,000 and beyond...
We are losing it Jim... I cannay hold it
Step 3a... dump it, dump it all - VIXtermination at the close but stocks have folded by then...
Mission Unaccomplished... close but no algo cigar today.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Rinse. Repeat.
VIX to zero! VIX to zero! Market to infinity! Market to Infinity!
It's the Hokey-Pokey dance, algo-bot style.
why not ? took profits this morning at 1977 basis Dec.'14 ES; when I saw europe start up. I"ll short this again, soon. it's like free money.
Just put in an automatic sell order at 2001 basis Dec.'14ES; it didn't get there yet. It means I'll have to get up early again tomorrow; but there's plenty of time to sleep when you're dead; so so they tell me. That'll be a new short; if you're following this.
Silver still holding in there pretty solid; still predicting higher prices over the next 12 trading days. remember, it's just an opinion.
Fuckin-A do it dude
Pop today just a wave two bounce for the five waves down since the peak last week
Shit's starting to fly fast so go deep short with no worry if you can
You should really pick up some BTC and LTC too to add to that portfolio... great time to buy right now, and nothing but positive news.
Yessir. I have the same playbook you are operating from. I especially like Nflx to visit the 200 dma in short order...as in the next 7 trading days. Like u said, just an opinion.
Fuck you Yellen.
Farce
I think the President is being led by the petro-dollar instead of trying to get out ahead of that thing and take out the massive "stealth flation" going on.
Treasuries got hit today as well...by the more the liquidity pours in the more the "urge to print" becomes unbearable.
Of course everyone is indeed doing it now. "Just waiting on the Federal Contract" now I imagine.
Uncle Gorrilla...
it's all about Khorasan... new Yids on the Block
Nothing new here to me. This is the new macro trading / cross asset trading that can be observed for the last 5 years. Weak Yen is benefitting long cary. long carry = long stocks. long stocks = short puts. Short puts = sell vol = sell vix. If one fails try the other.
Crazy line of thinking but that is how it is now. So forget diversification or real markets as long as central banks dictate markets. I pray for the day this madhouse comes down.
Don't pray too hard farmboy. In all seriousness, when a house of Lies this Big begins to conflagrate, what it doesn't initally suffocate by oxygen depletion, it flash-fries when the exit door opens. By the time this thing catches, you won't be able to believe anything coming out of officialdom. We're getting very close just by a smell-test measure of Un-truth.
don't forget (relentless) corporate buybacks
in Q1 ... every day market was open ... on average $2.5 billion in buybacks ... no matter the price of stocks ... no matter market up/down ...
Q2 even more of the same
Wait a minute, now; this is not a limitless process. they're already getting to the point where there's not a lot left to buy back without attracting un-welcome attention; creating the "wrong" impression; going too far in debt; etc. etc. This is a limited phenomenon.
Exactly
the worm will turn soon enough
"...but throw in some JPY jiggery-pokery..."
A+ for today for that one.
The evil witch in Schrek and "all her potions."
We have this contained. Bwhahahahaha.
We have what contained?
"The entire US economy! And the entire world economy too!!!! (Insert evil laugh here.)"
Just another day at the Fed!
2020+ by the 30th..... quarter window dressing fuck what it takes.......
Well, I don't think so; but that's just my opinion. I guess thats what makes horse races.
I guess the million dollar question is how long can they keep this up. I'll answer as long as they get fresh, free FRN to play the game with.
or as long as other countries keep accepting them.
Ferns, nearly as far as the eye can see.
http://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-Fern-field-Oze-marsh-in-the-morning-280...
Can't have the market down before the election.
The Fed equates wealth with the stock market. Have to keep it going.
It can only, and will continue to keep up, for as long as US citizens are willing to transact with usurious fiat currency instead of gold and silver. If people are willing to continue to shoulder the burden of inflationary policy, there's no reason the money printers can't continue to increase that burden on society as much as it takes to keep the casino in business.
There is good news here though. We don't have to wait for all the dimwits out there to pull their heads out. Gold and silver, being finite on our planet due to being non-renewable resources, will eventually hit a shortage as those of us who know how to use our heads are continually acquiring. At such time as the resources are not in high enough availability to meet demand, the rest of the people behind the curve will suddenly realize they are missing the boat, and jump the fiat ship without any life preservers like the lemmings they are.
a simple truth:
In the past the markets could go down for a while, years sometimes (remember 2000 and 2008?) now THEY MUST GO UP!
If they go down, every pension and profit sharing plan goes down with it, optics are blurred and the reaper comes. Yet we still hear the MSM speak as though this was normal. My grandkids will never believe this when we discuss it in the future. With every day the position of all parts of the traded economy become more rigidly fixed in their direction of travel. Gold lower, stocks higher. All of this occurs not only in spite of the underlying economy but often in contrast to it.....pure crazy...
I will go out on a limb and say they wont go appreciably down until Nov 5th....The end goal of the red team and blue team is the same, I do still believe that there is a difference in the path of getting there...
Everybody in equities today is either a leveraged shark or a paper chaser. There is no such thing as fundamentals. As soon as there is the slightest hint of blood in the water it will be a race for the door to get out before the cascade. Everyone knows this, and that's why the price cannot do anything but go up. Once the run begins, best believe "assets" - I use this term loosely as these are all IOUs - will be frozen. Profits will only be allowed prior to the unpredictable event. Tangible assets for the win. Get them while you can.
And the really sad thing is each and every one responsible for this FRAUD (from corps. buying stocks to gov't lackeys rigging gold---right on down the line) will be held accountable. No one responsible gets out alive! Ya think ISIL is bad? Wait until 100 million armed Americans realize they've been duped. God help those who have engineered this farse...
Oct VIX 14.63, cash VIX 13.27
Algos don't have the cash, but central banksters sure do. Centralbanksters buying and selling equities should be illegal.
Got that yellen?? Your office should be in a jail cell.
How true. But see my comment above. A jail cell will be 'Vegas' for the likes of those remotely associated with 'The Fed'...It will be a temporary 'holding' for those awaiting public execution...This is my prediction.
"All they could achieve was 1,999.79 highs"
who is 'they'?
From Cleveland..... Hey folks, all is contained. there is nothing to see here. Please, just move along, keep moving, we have the market contained.
Many stawks are hitting their 52-week lows right now. Has to make you look at the Dow members more carefully. The economy is sinking deeper into depression territory the neighbor tells me. He's manager of a local retial outlet; gross revenue down 65% so far this month, y.o.y. comparison. Profit margin negative.
subprime auto loans beginning to bust
when that blows ... it will be a pain train all along the extended auto supply line ... "they" won't be able to sweep that under the rug
Step 4:
Have NSA override the sytem and type up 2000
Wondered if you saw William Dudley's statements today on the dollar? If you're right on your "suicides" of bankers he should be very near the top on the list. If that were to happen btw I'd become an ekm1 apostle.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-newhinyse-newhighs.html its about 5 to 1 new lows to new highs..... We are in the encore of the set folks, lights will be comming on soon. Im calling highs for the year between now and Tuesday.....
Manipulation is a Lame Excuse by Both Proponent and Believer.....
That the Market as a WHOLE can be Controlled is Ignorance by those who Believe it; and Arrogance by those who Think it....
Anyone who takes Position in the Market based on the Actions of "others", whoever they may be, is truly Incompetent.....
There is only One Side to Capital, and that is the Right Side.....
Sometimes that is Up, Sometimes that is Down....
True Talent and Skill Neutralizes any Manipulation that occurs in Markets....
I was Long "King Dollar" in August 2008;
Long the Ten Year in February 2010;
Short APPL and ELEKTRA in 2012....
How did ANY Manipulation or HFT, etc., etc., change that One iota ?
If you cannot take Position based entirely on your Own Judgment, Talent and Skills, you shouldn't be in Markets, PERIOD.
"Manipulation" is the Constant Meme, Tyler, et al., but you steer clear of some of the Real Substantive Issues:
Warren Buffett has demonstrated the Ultimate Arrogance in basically Saying that He Can't Be Taken On........
That he is effectively Bigger than "Mr. Market"...
Not a Peep about that......
I have put The Arrow to the Heart....and the Bleed has already begun.....
As I said before Tyler, et al., Care To Give Airtime to The Real....?
wow you take the prize for douchebag of the day- maybe even the whole month so far...thanks for the laugh
agree
i find market rational if one peeks behind the curtain and pays attention to what is going on.
i mean, for gosh sakes, corporate profits currently ~ 11% of GDP (historical around 6%) ... and stocks are supposed to have crashed already??
you must have missed this op ed by Ben in 2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR201011...
While I'll grant you that some VIX selling may be the big boys taking off some of their hedges and adding to equities at what they feel will be another V-shaped instant recovery, in my experience those with the talent you profess are too busy making money to put umpteen links to a website in a financial blog chatroom. No website could ever out-earn a truly consistent, successful financial strategy . . . except perhaps ZH . . .
"those with the talent you profess are too busy making money"
This is NOT talent. This is FRAUD and injustice.
Yeah ... that was an annoying reversal today at 10:26, wasn't it?
'Real' STUPID! Enough said..
I don't always understand western idioms
Is Today's 3-Step related to the Texas Two-step in any way?
As I Said:
That the Market as a WHOLE can be Controlled is Ignorance by those who Believe it; and Arrogance by those who Think it....
Whoever "they" Might Be......
I Did Miss Completely where "Ben" said to "Sell" in 2000 and 2007........Not even to Mention that I missed when Alan said to Sell in 1987.....
But that is the problem when you listen to "Smith"........
I did catch where Stan Fischer said and DID Buy Apple in 2012.......
Quite Publicly, Of course...........
mr magoo did it better
I did Catch also when Bill Gross, "The Bond King" said the Dow had much more Downside in 2002 and 2009......
I also did Catch when the "Dean of Dow Theory" Richard Russell after years of being a "Bear" said in 2007 that "Dow Theory" Confirmed the Bull Market with Masssive Upside Potential......
I also Caught when Guru Taleb said in February 2010 that US Treasuries were "The Short of a Lifetime"..........
Good ol "Smith"........
As I said:
If you cannot take Position based entirely on your Own Judgment, Talent and Skills, you shouldn't be in Markets, PERIOD.
dickface, enough with the bold... you are really fucking annoying...ok?
Common Zimbamerica, yes we can(not)...
The Difference between Ignorance and Stupidity:
Ignorance is a Condition that can be Cured through Application and Effort...or Enlightenment......
Stupidity is State of Being, rarely Cured......
Join the party (Ignorance); Join the list (Stupid). See my above comment for my prediction for the likes of you..
Today's snap back rally in the markets was a correction of an EW five wave impulse. It will not last more than a day or so and the downtrend will begin again dragging equities to further lows.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...
Some may be interested...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/never-before-offer-from-elliott-wave-...
Much of the economic landscape is beginning to look like something out of "Alice And The Looking Glass" A bizarre and unrecognizable land, a land that is distorted and papered over by ream after ream of paper. This paper has been rolling off the printing presses of central banks all across the world in an attempt to mask reality.
Peter Schiff says, printing money is to the economy what taking drugs is to a drug addict. In the short term it makes the economy feel good, but in the long run it is much worse off. What was once the "long run" or "distant future" may be getting much closer. More on what happens when the momentum ends in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-happens-after-momentum-ends_...