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Whatever You Do, Don't Look At Goldman's Latest Swirlogram, But If You Must...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Remember when conventional wisdom was that the world in 2014 was humming on all cylinders? Good times. Then this happened: according to Goldman's Global Leading Indicator, aka its famous "Swirlogram", global growth just hit a brick wall in the month of September.

From Goldman:

Despite still robust US growth outturns, and expectations of a Q4 bounce in China’s real GDP numbers, the Advanced GLI reading for September (released last Thursday, September 18) suggests that the global industrial cycle will start to slow. GLI growth, month-on-month, slipped a bit in September, though is still positive. This sequential downturn in growth, modest though it may be, pushed the Advanced GLI into the Slowdown phase of the cycle (see Exhibit 7). This reading is keyed off the September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey, which is used as a proxy for global September PMI numbers that have yet to be released. During the past year or so, we have found that phase shifts first become visible in the Advanced GLI and are, for several months unwound by the Final GLI before settling in for good. So the September Final GLI – due out on October 1st - may well still be in Expansion, though sequential changes in growth may be barely positive, as was the case in August.

Oh well when all else once again fails, as it will, there is always the, dun dun dun, Untaper.

 

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Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:24 | 5251002 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Oh NO GS didn't..

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:30 | 5251016 Stackers
Stackers's picture

my phone stopped ringing in 4th Qrt 2013 and unless I actively leave messages for people to call back it won't ring all day still.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:56 | 5251064 svayambhu108
svayambhu108's picture

Is this graph trying a knot?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:08 | 5251106 philipat
philipat's picture

"Despite still robust US growth outturns,"

Um, wasn't it Goldman that projected, at the beginning of 2014, a 4% GDP growth in The US this year? But, I suppose, why pick on 2014 because "Growth will accelerate in the second half" has now been projected for each of the last 5 years. And I imagine that 2015 will be no different.

Maybe they should just start projecting second half growth acceleration but without mentioning what year?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:10 | 5251125 philipat
philipat's picture

"Is this graph trying a knot?"

Looks more like Goldman giving us all the middle finger?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:31 | 5251202 madcows
madcows's picture

Green shits and Summer of Recovery 7.0

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:27 | 5251187 madcows
madcows's picture

Gordian, is that you?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 13:20 | 5252397 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

No, a noose...

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:16 | 5251144 arby63
arby63's picture

Business in my area has taken a crap. It all started around July and it hasn't budged since. In fact, small and large businesses alike seem frozen in time.

Parking lots are empty. Roads seem eerily quiet on most days. As a small business owner, I have noticed one thing more than others: My suppliers never have anything in stock. My weeks are not dedicated to scrambling for anything and everything.

One more item of note: I see more scams today than ever in my life. All of AM radio advertising is one big scam: Dinovite, Texas Super Food, IRS scare ads, ambulance chasers. It's bad. Even worse: email and online scams appear to make up 95% of the traffic.

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 19:35 | 5253864 quadcap
quadcap's picture

Wrong.  Porn is 95% of the traffic.  Always has been, since the early 90's, anyway.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:24 | 5251169 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

Jonathan Cahns latest book 'The Shetimah Year : ...' Is a must read.  In the Shetimah year 90% + of all economic collapses / contractions and depressions have occurred.

This one will be no different.

The last day of the Shetimah Year is the 29th of Elul.  On THAT DAY

September 17, 2001 - 29th Elul (Last day of Last year / Shetimah Year) - 684 point drop. 7.1%

September 28, 2001 - 29th Elul (Last day of Last year / Shetimah Year) - 777 point drop 7%

This Shetimah Year will commence September 25th, 2014 and run until September 13, 2015 (29th of Elul).

If my understanding of the prophetic is correct we could possibly see a massive market collapse in Japan shortly this October when they are hit by an earthquake hitting the main island (island of Honsu) - it will cause a 30 ft Tsunami wave to hit the shore of California damaging much beach front property.  About two to three weeks after this event there will be a MASSIVE QUAKE HIT CALIFORNIA. It will cause portions of Los Angeles to fall into the ocean, and crash the NASDAQ.  There will be market panics and bank runs.  Obama will implement the 'Obama Freeze' People's 401K's will be frozen, people's bank accounts will be frozen.  It will not be called martial law, it will be called 'Emergency Police Powers'

If we make it through this October window we will be safe until next fall, where it is pretty much a certainty.

The prophecy of Nita Johnson was specific and this was given back in 1998.  She basically said she saw the stock market become extremely unstable, it would go up, it would come down, and we would be in a very perilous time financially.  Eventually it would go down and it would not come back up. There would be much talk about the stock market coming back and it would begin to rise.  Do not be fooled!  It would begin to go up but then completely crash, and never resurrect itself.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:46 | 5251264 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

I use the arcane witchcraft of math, rather then biblical 7 year cycles or prophecy, to know that we are fucked.  It's not hard to be a prophet nowadays, since if there is a fire in the livingroom anyone can predict the whole house will burn without much devine power.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:43 | 5251472 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

I don't think that it is so much that those in charge create actions and trends (they are not very creative). They simply like to accentuate trends for their own benefit while still having something/someone else to blame. The game is for power and control, not fiat. Personally, I think the 7-year cycle has been overpromoted (I mean really, what was that with the Christine Lagarde speech earlier this year) ... and now the Jonathan Cahn book.

 

The question is: Does the 7-year trend provide them with the proper cover or is it misdirection? 2-years ago I was thinking the former and now I am thinking the latter. Too much promotion.

 

However, I'm still in agreement that to provide the proper cover for the global currency/financial system, they will need to take down the Fed first, make people suffer and make them beg for a global savior. This will have to be done by taking down the stock markets at a time when boomers are most dependent on them. People will say, what good is the Fed, if they cannot protect us. Let's get rid of it ... which would then turn markets  into a long-term disaster. People do not realize how much we depend on control and manipulation of markets .... so they think we will beg for a savior to manage markets and currency globally.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 12:16 | 5252066 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Bookmarking this comment as a proof of peak idiocy in financial market annon. comments (and by extension, the qualifications of those invested in the market).

 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:25 | 5251005 ekm1
ekm1's picture

My current world GDP estimation is:

 

MINUS 5% AT BEST

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:32 | 5251018 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Seasonally adjusted.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:36 | 5251025 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Correct, at best

 

At best:

USA at minus 4%

China at minus 8%

Germany at minus 2%

EU at minus 6%

UK at minus 2%

Canada at minus 2%

Japan at minus 5%

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:42 | 5251044 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well damn, is ISIS/ISIL the only thing that is growing? 

 

/s

Everyone enjying the show?  Are we not entertained?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:46 | 5251053 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

People with 29.5 hr/wk jobs have more time to spend on entertainment....as long as it's free.

 

Word is ISIS is offering full time work....with benefits....which I would suggest taking. Especially the trauma package.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:05 | 5251108 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Benefits like 76 trombones. No, that's not quite it.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 20:34 | 5254099 mkkby
mkkby's picture

So you guys are saying buy stocks, full margin.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:07 | 5251111 Bryan
Bryan's picture

And don't forget the 'virgins' perk.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:37 | 5251223 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Those are the benefits.  It's a pretty good scam from the employer's point of view.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:47 | 5251059 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Yeah, but Belgium will turn it all around....

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:27 | 5251182 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The Fed will always backstop the US directly or through agents like Belgium, until they don't. When it all unravels there is a good chance the Fed will be made into the fallguy. Poor Janet. If you ever read that Dingy Harry is going to let the Audit the Fed bill reach the Senate it will be time to put in some deep out of the money puts. Until then we will need an act of God to set this thing off.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:37 | 5251217 ekm1
ekm1's picture

It no longer works

World is avoiding and rejecting USD in exchange for goods  and services

 

The more Janet provides, the more world avoids payments in USD

 

IT IS OVER

 

Draining, extinguishing of USD by NY Fed is under way right now. DXY is exploding higher

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:29 | 5251464 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Yup, the Fed is lender of last resort while The US Gubment is the borrower of last resort.  We on't be able to purchase much on international markets on credit, so it's a good thing we didn't dismantle our domestic manufacturing . . . oh shit.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:00 | 5251090 agent default
agent default's picture

What scares me is that you are probably underestimating the situation.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:33 | 5251019 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

And they're using gubmint numbers to plot their data points. So, I'm sure it's accurate. This would be on the same planet where I just shit a unicorn. And GS is a fine fiduciary partner to the amerkan people.

Garbarge in, garbage out.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:01 | 5251095 agent default
agent default's picture

You mean it is worse?  But ,  but MSNBC said that we are on the way to recovery.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:32 | 5251021 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

This is bullish for a wintertime bottoming pattern and an upturn early next year.  Same as it ever was in the new normal.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:57 | 5251086 pods
pods's picture

Can we have a recovery spring next year too?

pods

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:09 | 5251120 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yes.  Yes you may.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:29 | 5251198 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

hot off the presses.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:34 | 5251023 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

What the Hell do you mean?....."IF" I must!?

OF COURSE I MUST!!

Great swilogram.... I LIKE it!

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:38 | 5251028 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

How valid can you expect this to be????

 

Jesssus  h Christ, there's not damned thing on there about the f'in WEATHER!!!!

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:40 | 5251029 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Next thing we know we'll get Goldman's interpretation of Yellen's finger paintings for a glimpse into the Fed future.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:06 | 5251352 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

"Yellen's finger paintings"

That just sounds wrong.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:22 | 5251427 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

More likely they are currently closely examining her spoor.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:38 | 5251030 demoses
demoses's picture

Ohhhhh... it is spiral shaped -> guess the global economy is going down the drain and the elite just flushed...

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:39 | 5251031 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Who doesn't like swirlies?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:41 | 5251041 trueFacts
trueFacts's picture

... and dont forget that the swirly-gram is fabricated from completely bogus over-optimistic government "data"    I cant imagine the terror on wall street if the real swirly-gram ever saw the light of day.  i guess we will have to wait until the obaamma presidential librabry opens in the capital of the caliphate to find out all the facts.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:41 | 5251042 youngman
youngman's picture

Down here in Colombia that had a big government program to build 100,000 free houses for the poor....of course they have run out of money after only one third of them have been built....lots of corruption down here....but that growth has stopped until a new Politician is elected because he said he will finish the houses or something like this

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:41 | 5251046 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

dun dun dun, Untaper.

That's right bitchez. You heard it here first.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:43 | 5251049 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Chart porn for weekly mortgage apps.. Looks positive for new home sales...ha! I crack myself up.
http://bit.ly/1xeMB9t

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:45 | 5251056 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

0.0x percent differences. What are we talking about really? Nothing to see here.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:58 | 5251085 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Fuck goldman.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 08:57 | 5251087 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

Palomar knot..those who go fishing will understand

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:33 | 5251208 filletandrelease
filletandrelease's picture

Pound for pound, the best knot you can tie.  Works well with the PowerPro braided line that I love to use!

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 11:38 | 5251864 wide mouth kid
wide mouth kid's picture

5 turn grinner works for me

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:04 | 5251105 replaceme
replaceme's picture

If I follow, this is all good news then - buy anything, ride the fuckin' wave ALL the way in. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:15 | 5251139 himaroid
himaroid's picture

This time down, it gets really ugly.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:20 | 5251159 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

The productivity gains of technology are starting to be passed onto us plebs. We are getting more for less so things are getting better with deflation.  Work for non-pleasure will surely be a thing of the past soon. We just have to fire all the fucking cops, politicians, and lawyers and this will be Heaven on Earth.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:22 | 5251164 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

If we buy goods manufactured here we'll grow. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:25 | 5251175 madcows
madcows's picture

Don't worry.  The Q2 GDP revision comes out Friday.  I'm sure it will clock in at 6%.  The government will make sure it's big, to reinforce the "everything is well" meme.  Oh, and your chocolate rations have been upped.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:28 | 5251188 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Elections.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:58 | 5251596 CHX
CHX's picture

Errections ?

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 09:44 | 5251248 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Trust, baby, trust! Where is your patriotism?

Death, by law, to the Banksters and their stooges, attorneys and bureaucrats.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:08 | 5251369 graymnzrc
graymnzrc's picture

It's funny how ZH only shows this graph when the information is negative. Personally I love this site but I am adding more grains of salt while reading it daily. When I once came to ZH to get truthful insight, now I just use it to get an opposing view of what the MSM is reporting and consider the whole truth is probably somewhere between them.

If you want me to always consider you a credible source of un-biased information then show this graph regularly, even when it doesn't support your narrative. Oh and btw, disparaging positive gov't stats as manipulated and negative gov't stats as gospel doesn't help either.

Flame on because as we all know, either toe the line with doom or gloom or get lost because honest opposing critiques are not tolerated by the posting faithfull. Even if someone like me is a loyal reader. 

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 10:34 | 5251484 notadouche
notadouche's picture

I can agree with most of what you write but if ZH has taught you anything it should be to view all information with a juandiced eye, including information on ZH,  especially when it deviates from straight up Wall Street banking info.   In my opinion I odn't think you should ever expect to get information from any source that is 100% credible and 100% unbiased.   

I do sense what you are observing in the difference between ZH of today vs several years ago.  I noticed a while back the small print "Zero Hedge/ABC Media LTD".   I may be wrong but I don't remember "ABC Media LTD" being in the small print when I first joined.   I don't claim to know what that means nor the implications but if it in fact means ABC, the media conglomerate which I took it to mean, then you have all the information you really need, don't you?

Take everything, even ZH, for what it is, nothing more, nothing less.  

If that doesn't help you then at least consider the absence of the "Silver Bears".  I've heard rumors about their fate ranging from being "disappeared", taken to a Black Site suffering unspeakable torture to simply getting shot in the ass while stealing a pic-a-nic basket.   Information/disinformation....who can tell fact from fiction anymore???? 

 

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