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No More Foreplay: Russia Threatens European Gas Supply Disruptions
It appears Vladimir Putin is willing to hit'em while they're down. Early European equity weakness (and safe-haven flows) on asset-freeze threats have accelerated as Bloomberg reports, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak threatens gas supply disruptions if the EU continues to re-export Russian gas to Ukraine. 3Y German bond yields have plunged to -4.1bps, a record low close and European stocks are closing on their lows of the day.
- *RUSSIA THREATENS GAS SUPPLY THROTTLING TO EUROPE: HANDELSBLATT
3Y yield at record (negative) lows...
As Bloomberg reports, Russia Threatens Gas Supply Throttling to Europe: Handelsblatt
EU re-exporting Russian-purchased gas to Ukraine exceeds existing treaties, Novak tells newspaper
Novak says only adherence to negotiated agreements can guarantee undisrupted gas supplies to Europe: Handelsblatt
Novak says Ukraine has rejected constructive offers from Russia on pricing, reducing Ukrainian gas debt and future pre-payments ahead of talks tomorrow in Berlin: Handelsblatt
* * *
* * *
However...
European storage facilities contained a record 75.7 billion cubic meters (2.7 trillion cubic feet) of gas yesterday, making them more than 91 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group.
“If colder weather arrives, then storage levels could well be drained,” Citigroup said.
* * *
It appears Europe's short-term plan to mitigate the "Winter War" may have bigger boomerang consequences than they seem to believe (and bear in mind the consequences of cold, pissed off Europeans in the past).
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No more foreplay, Vlad is ready to lay some pipe.
I agree and the EU has been begging for it.
The deer has landed. Tylers where is the deer? I'm getting excited!
I wouldn't mind them turning off the gas. Just fucking do it already. Or at least cut off Poland, and then tell the Germans if they supply poland they get cut off too.
i must admit putins position on the polish has been totally cuntish and soft.
polish grom have been killing russians for months for fuck sake.
and yet the rabbis of poland are still called partners.
It's just lost in translation because last time I heard Putin speak, he was still calling the West (USA/UK) partners.
In this case, War = Divorce if we're all partners I guess.
Gazprom is right to be pissed since the Ukraine refuses to pay the 5.5 billion owing on previous gas sales, and may have never intended to pay for the gas in the first instance. Resales of gas by other EU countries to the Ukraine is nothing more than aiding and abetting the Ukraine's fraudulent attempt to cheat a major creditor. What I find amazing is that any entity would even lend money to the Kiev Kriminal Kabal (KKK).
Don't forget the Iceland volcano
It's all funny money anyway, it can appear or disappear in an instant to further Western ambitions.
If I didn't pay my gas bill, I'd be cut off before I could take my next shit. Gazprom should be more like the vulture capitalists that those they serve so love to say they admire and SHUT THE FUCKERS OFF ALREADY.
Well, it's only natural that the criminals that created it would "help" finance it.
C'mon ZH'ers. I think you're smarter than that. Why would Putin cut off the gas when he can supply it to desperate customers at a much higher price? And if they don 't wanna pay his first stated price then he just finds whatever higher price they're willing to pay up to a specific cut-off date. Beyond that given the choice of having gas vs no gas I think they'll pay zee whatever high price rather than freeze and shutdown doing biz, no?
He's not going to sell the farm. Russia needs it or the south stream to supply gas to Europe.
Cooperation with the United States is impossible.
Any form of cooperation United States with Russia, for USA is to just another form of war against Russia.
United States does not need any partners. The United States needs only vassals. Because the United States is "an exceptional country" with "exceptional people" and "an exceptional president."
But the Russian does not want and will not be vassals of the United States. If Russian will be a choice between the status of vassals of the United States and a nuclear war, they would see only one way - a nuclear war.
I wish that the exceptional people who live in the exclusive country, do not want to teach history. For fire and radiation no difference who they kill - the ordinary person or a very exceptional man.
Amen!
You are on to something Silvermail. There is no cooperation or partnership with the new Neoconservative Washington War Party. They see all peoples as vassels to the "exceptional people" and that is just all there is too it. Putin is trying to bargain and curry favor with a devil, a new satan than lives in Washington DC. Just look how Washington spies on it's own people, and shakes them down for all their money to fund wars and Israeli hegemony. Putin is so soft it is not even funy anymore. He trys to glad hand Washington and gets kicked in the balls. The EU, against all their self interest, is nothing but a lacky to the Washington Neoconservative War Party.
It is getting serious, the Washingon War party now seeks to foment a European wide war, one in which the USA stands to gain everything, a return to 1950, and Europe stands to loose everything. Putin keeps waiting for Europe to wake up to how they are being played, but the EU political class is bought off with bribes, cash, jobs, and when that fails, NSA black mail, when that fails, a CIA generated illness or accident. Deal with the devil, and the devil soon owns you!
Now, I don't mean America in all this, I mean the evil whore house in Washington DC. Most people on a state level have little interest in Washington's drive for all out war.
Appearing to be soft and being soft are two different things. Putin is a phenomenal diplomat and a highly skilled player; he does not issue warnings or ultimatums like some teenage girlfriend. He does not mind when some things take time and years of preparation. Time and time again, every accusation that was thrown at him was proven to be bullshit and he never shrugged, never backed into a corner and never acted irrationally. He is not some little chihuahua that mindlessly barks at every passing car, he conserves his power, he plans his moves and he does not advertise them ahead of time. He deals with treacherous Oligarchs, ruthless Zionists and a whole world of imbeciles who want him to die. So far, at every turn he has managed to outsmart his opponents.
I do hope your take is the right one! Putin is up against an evil in Washington DC's War Party.
Go get em Pootie! Rout that den of yiddish vipers!
Maybe a reindeer this time!
Yes, Europe and specifically zee Germans have been confident before that they could outlast the Russians and winter. That didn't work out so well.
Vee surrender! Vee vill pay zee higher gas prices and zee bill for Ukraine.
Draghi cannot jawbone the thermometer, and Janet cannot print BTUs.
Gota save some fuel to light under the tanks to get em to crank when it gets real cold
Tanks? Not out on the snowpack. It will look more like this...
Alexey Volkov
Evgeny Ustyugov
Dmitry Malyshko
Anton Shipulin
vs.
Erik Lesser
Daniel Böhm
Arnd Peiffer
Simon Schempp
...and Russia won that last go-around, too, just last winter.
caption: more damn Nazi "Supermen" surrendering.
Let them burn ipads.
I hope they get good and hard, spineless cocksuckers.
If we had more global warming, there'd be no need for Europe to need all that Russian gas. Why is Obama hating on Europe with all his Global Warming Scare Mongering???????
Or after the no lube rogering, the pipe is being removed.
According to Accuweather, the historical average January temperature for Kiev is about 25 degrees ºF. With snow on the ground thanks to El Nino, that could cause Ukraine to burn through a lot of natural gas fast. Will Germany let its citizens get chilled and have its gas-powered factories shut down to make sure Ukraine deadbeat power companies have enough gas to keep their Kiev customers nice and warm on a chilly winter's day? I doubt it.
Safe bet. During the winter of discontent in the UK, I had power in my factory without
power outs, but not at my home.German biz will come first, then consumers, and
then ,what the fuck is a Ukraine ?
It's shaping up to be the winter of discount tents and wood stoves.
Here's to hoping he demands payments in Au and Ag, in full.
Nagative Bond Yields ? Wow; what a deal. Where can I get some of those ? Is that like Gold, (doesn't pay any dividends), only worse ? How extremely attractive.
floreplay?? he jumped right for the clitorious
More like a few inches to the rear.
... with a fist ;-)
Looney
EU: Vlad, wiggle your fingers now.
Gonna feel open-palmed around January
"Clitorious" indeed. It is a mysterious region, full of savages and beauty.
Obama's clitorious?
Yes, and G-spotless ;-)
Looney
No, he has talked about doing something, to date he has done nothing.
Putin is not talking responding to sanctions with gas supply decreases but is only talking about decreases to account for the gas diverted to Ukraine. This is a big deal to Ukraine but not to the rest of Europe unless they are the ones who want NATO in Ukraine.
There are many more games and talk to occur over the gas to Ukraine.
Check to USA, Inc. Your move, Barry.
Barry is playing Twister with Valerie.
PUTIN caused stocks to prematurely ejaculate-!
someone pulled out early
Baby, I swear I'm not going to ...
Oh no!
Supposed to PULL OUT not PUTIN!
Europeans are hearty folk and used to cold Winters, that is why Vladimir Putin will wait until it gets shit freezing cold and only then will he grab Angela Merkel by the gas short hairs and slap her over the sanctions head.
It will turn her on tremendously. She is German after all.
It's going to be a cold winter. Perogies are going to be frozen!
This is still foreplay. Ukraine has the third largest gas storage facilities in the world (behind the USSA and USSR). That gas isn't being pumped to Ukraine to supply the Ukies (who have been priced out of the market) this winter, it's to make up for the EUSSR's usual not measuring up to the big boys that it wants to play as equals with...
The funny thing is that more than 50% of Ukraine's facilities are concentrated in Lviv (even more when one factors in the loss of the facility in Crimea and the tenuous grasp on certain eastern provinces), so if Putin (or a rogue gas trader/bankster with a net long position and an account at Blackwater, or a freezing UkieNazi) takes out one pipeline - gas prices will spike in the EU as storage capacity is re-examined.
Of course, if Russia really wanted to play dirty they could false flag their own UkieNazi; too bad the Russians like to play fair when the U.S. doesn't.
At this point I'm Just waiting for the money shot.
That is the price that Washington's mindless vassals have to pay when they obey their masters' orders. Maybe the people in Europe will force their idiot leaders to think about Europe instead of Nuland et al and their mindless agenda. The dumb leading the dumb.
Yep
PUTIN caused the GSR to rise to 69.69
Damn that Immoral Man-!
Anyone who didn't see this coming, please raise your hand.
OK. I see a big eared black person in the back with his hand raised. Anyone else?
those phat bund yields will keep them warm at night /s
Ultimately, it will depend on where the money is coming from in order to pay for the gas which is being redirected into Ukraine. Secondly, it depends on how much EU will pay for Russian gas and whether it will pay for it, or merely postpone payments until some future date.
As long as the EU is promptly paying the full price for the gas it gets from Russia, the Russians will be content to let this go on. Ukraine can't pay for the gas it gets. So, "printed money" must come from the IMF to pay for it. But the IMF has never before allowed its largess to continue without setting harsh terms for repayment. The troubles for Ukraine will only get worse.
i think this is going beyond printed money accumilation
Truth , and paper promises second, are the first casualties of War.
Obozo declared war on Russia yesterday, you can't read it any other way.
Churkin certainly got it, and reported it back
I forecast severe temp. global warming is iminent ,unless this stops.
As hot as this?
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/1999/SimonFung.shtml
Stalingrad, HH?
One would think the French and Germans would have learned from the disasters of NAPOLEON and HITLER in Russian winter.
Lessons are never learned and this is why history repeats itself.
It takes three generations to forget the lessons of history, the trainwreck is right on schedule.
well. it has been more than three generations for the French.
The Germans need 5 minutes to learn a lesson.
Now the mighty US do A might fuck this up even more.
my father indured 4 years of camps in WWII , he said.
" Russians are the hardest fuckers around , only when the world ends Russsians will dissapear ."
"One would think the French and Germans would have learned from the disasters of NAPOLEON and HITLER in Russian winter."
Trouble is the EU leaders are all pro-American, and as such, have forgotten their history, their roots, their culture. They are as much an amorphous neoliberal progressive bunch as the criminals in Washington DC. Same greed, same ignorance, same short-term vision, same hypocritical petty moralism, same moronic arrogance. They can't even spell in their own languages, and I'm not joking: you should see their spelling mistakes.
If you want people who can really think, you have to go to the alternative media and the anti-system people, same as in the USA. Neoliberalism literally kills neurons. It's a reality.
True , i,m French and i am embarrassed by my spelling in French. It,s so bad i prefer writing to French friends in Spanglish.
Most of them speak "it" and other new languages ..
Miami gives crashes courses in several.
Putin rushing to do something now that Obama is surrendering to neocons and pentagon
It seems to me that Pentagon Junta is shaping up slowly
There will be no gas reductions if the damn bill is paid.
In the end there is no other solution - the EU did this to Ukraine, the EU must pay Ukraine's debts and buy Ukraine free gas. There is no other solution. They made their bed, now they must lie on it.
Merkel has to choose now; as I said earlier : its Putin vs Sunni monarchies vs Shia IRan, that feeds EZ with its gas.
This coming prolonged war between West and Islam (cum Putinistan) will make that choice very actual.
Maybe, Putin is using his chips to get the best terms before he meets EU in Italy summit meeting.
that is not cricket it is also anti semetic.
russia must supply the ukrainia as much free gas as the nazi rabbi's demand.
they must also right off any passed usage consumption debt they must also supply the rabbi girls from moscowitch and vladdy vostok for fucking and talmudick sucking sessions with time off for tora bora religous holidays.
Thats some sick shit right there Tony. Well played
Know your enemy
AD
I'll let you know if a nuclear bomb lands in my neighborhood.
cool send me pics on fuckbook
sarc off.
I see a lot of trees being cut down, a lot of furniture being burned, a big comeback for long johns and perhaps Europe might embrace the burka for practical reasons.
Australian wool growers might do well also if gas is turned down or off.
Greek olive growers will also do well as no cooking is required for olives as opposed to beans.
Let the vassal EU countries freeze and send them Al Gore to do a report on GW!!!
Bring on the Qatari gas pipeline.
Maybe Qatar can redirect the pipeline along North Africa and cross the strait into Spain and thus Europe. Syria may be shorter but it will likely be blown up for the next ten years or so . . .
The natives are getting restless in North Africa thanks to the ZioMerkins.
Maybe the Emir could make a deal with the Saudis, Jordanians and the Zionists? But then he'd have to share some (most) of the proceeds, eh? He'd better hurry if he's going to get there before the Iranians decide to get in bed with the Turks.
Politics (and money) make for (very) strange bedfellows.
Sure. The Americans invaded Afghanistan partly so that they could build a pipeline from Turkmenistan to the Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea). Karzai was a "consultant" to Unicolso they made him prime minister.
http://centurean2.wordpress.com/2009/10/27/dying-for-oil-unicol-corporat...
Sadly, it did not work out very well as the foreign troops never did control much other than a few cities and road. You cannot build a gas pipeline without having the locals on board.
This move could possibly have a chilling effect.
The EU needs to chill out.
That chart could use a fluffer
Am in Germany and Austria in a weeks time and intend to wind-up my associates who feel they are superior to the rest of Europe. All i hear from them as we drive down long roads and motorways is ' do you see this and that company over there; industry leaders they are '.
Is that correct i say , pity you can't take a piss until requesting permission from the CABAL.
This is met with acknowledgement and over dinner and a few drinks to loosen them up an admission i am not too far away with the truth.
However these are industry and businessmen and we would never get this frankness from the CLOWNS in Politics.
"I have two generals who will not fail me: Generals January and February." Tsar Nicholas I
Go for it Vlad. I hope Europe is in for a fucking cold winter.
But I know UK energy prices will "surprisingly" increase even though we don't even get any Russian gas.
British Gas are contracted to buy the first Russian gas into the UK next month.
The Scots should have voted for Independance.
When will you learn?
Following on from my previous post German Business men and women are pissed off big time with Granny Merkel.
It is not an exaggeration when i tell you that 4/5 of them have set up most of their recent business undertakings in Russia, pulling the slack from the EU members and sending their best employees to Moscow.
That is where they see their future and for the last several years have invested heavily.
Any fucker who says different is lying and this antagonism towards Putin will backfire badly.
"What is good for the Russian is death for the German"
traditional...and from the Russian screenplay "Brat" (Brother)
"... the new president of Russia managed to "hypnotize" the West, by playing the game with its own terms, empowering, at the same time, the Russian influence. By enhancing the pipeline network in Europe, he managed to secure its energy dependence from Russia and boost the geopolitical power of his country."
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/05/the-big-barrier-called-putin....
"It appears Vladimir Putin is willing to hit 'em while until they're down."
the arrogant EU needs a bit of a cold draft up their collective a**es.
this might be what europe needs to start breaking up the EU/UE connection.
listening to Porky lay out his '2020' program this afternoon to the UE sheeple almost made one cry.
this guy is sooooo out of touch. he is going to reform everything at once - over 60 different reform pkges all at once.
and now EU getting its marching orders from RU for the coming months.
poor b**tards won't know who to listen to barry or vlad.
LMAO
Actual El Nino probability is low. Forecast on the link provided in the article is for a mild Euro winter.
russia used to export almost nothing to Europe nearly 30 years ago as the soviet union. very nearly nothing compare to today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_trade_of_the_Soviet_Union
so , with the collapse of the soviet union--- VERY CHEAP GAS AND OIL WAS MADE AVAILABLE TO EUROPE. THEY WERE GETTING A GREAT DEAL. AND THEN THEY GOT ADDICTED.
THIS IS ALWAYS A DIALECTIC OF COMMODITY TRADE IN HISTORY. THE POWERFUL NATIONS GET THE CHEAP GOODS FROM THE POWERLESS. THEIR POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS GET 'HOOKED' .
ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END. AND YET--------SOMEONE UP HIGH ENSURED THAT GERMANY STOPPED BURNING COAL.
IF THERE IS AN EMERGENCY OF WW3 GERMANY WILL GO BACK TO COAL. BUT SOMEONE VERY SMART SET UP GERMANY FOR AN ENERGY CRISIS BY INCREASING AND SEALING UP THEIR NECESSARY DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIA.
OH YEA, FOR YOU FUCKNUTS THAT THING GERMANY HAS LOTS OF SOLAR POWER , you are coorect, but power for factories and industrial production is not solar . so YOU HAVE NO FUCKING CLUE WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
germany like every godamn country in the world short of perhaps france is fully dependent on hydrocarbons for a huge chunk of their base-load and all of heir marginal production of energy.
You need to check your facts. Lignite is a brown low energy coal. From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26820405
Two new lignite plants were opened in 2012, with a further two in the pipeline. Another two hard coal plants also opened last year, with a further five opening this year or next, with two more awaiting licences.
The effects are already being felt. Lignite production in 2012 hit its highest level for almost 20 years, while initial estimates suggest this brown coal was used to generate 162bn kWh of electricity last year, more than in any year since 1990. The use of hard coal also increased, meaning the two energy sources accounted for 46% of Germany's overall energy production.
How far away from the market is Israel's Leviathan gas?
If they can afford to send to Ukraine now they dont need it in Europe, at least now.
In the end when Europe does need it they will comply
Jumpin' Vlad Flash is a gaz, gaz gaz!
He was born on a gaz line ta Uuuukraine...
Following this article the side that breaks the contract is securing European gas and the side that provides the gas and demands pacta sunt servanda is the one threatening the other side?
I call it sensationalism and severe disinformation...
Not to worry the tomahawks can fly south for the winter.
I am surprised he objects. I europe re exports, the EU is stuck with a bad creditor. In a war foreplay, you want your opponent to be stuck with lots of bad credit.
your opponent is backed by someone with
fast enough printing presses to print debt away
--like POOF!!!--There goes debt!!
Hard to be nice to somebody who is helping some asshole beat you out of a debt.
Yeah, but in this instance the EU is gonna end up having to pay for deadbeat Ukraine, one way or another (C'mon Draghi, you can do it! Have you looked under ALL the sofa cushions yet?).
Be really smart . See
https://www.academia.edu/8491490/Prodigy_Update_I
and avoid annoyances like World Wars .
Hey Hey Hey. Detroit dead beats just call in the UN to broker a deal.
EU upcoming Ice Bucket Challenge right on schedule
If we get a similar winter to 2010, or 2011, this year, Europe will be begging Russia for their gas.
I remember Frankfurt airport being gridlocked for days due to the cold in 2010.
Just turned on my Russian gas tonight.
Starting to get cold.
Vlad seems to a have a bit of a taste for theater. I wonder if he will wait until first frost, freeze, snow, or perhaps a date to spin the valves at Gazprom?
Shutting of the gas on Guy Fawkes Night (Nov 5'th), or perhaps Armistice Day (Nov 11'th) would be quite ironic.
I think one thing is certain. Russia will honour their contracts to the last 't'. Afterall, they want the French to honour the Mistral contract.
That means if their Western customers accepted that there were re-export conditions then the Russians will now enforce them, even if the didn't in the past. From all that is being said it seems that those conditions are in the contracts and the complaints from the West have no contractual merit.
Just like a couple of weeks ago when the Poles, who had the right to ask, requested more supplies, and Gazprom, who had the right to refuse, said no. So the Poles screamed that the evil Russians had cut their supplies, forgetting to mention that that was what they had agreed to in the contract.
One does wonder what, if any money, is changing hands for these reverse flow agreements.
Also bear in mind that the German subsidiary of EDF that controls much of the reverse flow pipe systems is now (from Q2 2014) Russian owned, so they know exactly what is going on. Prudent purchase that one.
Great post,please remember the I.MF.just put in 100$million to Ukraine.
Let me say two words to you, just two words. Solar Panels.
Not a lot of use in dark northern european winters. I know, I have them.
" But as our mornings get darker and the nights draw in, the major question is - do solar thermal panels produce hot water in the winter? Fortunately for homeowners, the answer is yes. Solar panels work on light not heat, meaning they continue to work during the winter, - See more at: http://www.britishgas.co.uk/blog/articles/does-solar-power-work-in-the-winter#sthash.PCPX4osX.dpuf "
better yet windmillls, windmills with giant billion dollar air compressor turbines http://www.kptv.com/story/26611733/renewable-energy-plan-hinges-on-huge-...
How does compressed air storage compare with using the wind-generated electricity to make hydrogen from water onsite? Seems like you'd have losses running the turbines to make electricity, while the hydrogen could be used directly as fuel in some industrial application.
Let's see the EU cough up that kind of money on behalf of a nazi backed government that has destroyed the whole economy and is corrupt as hell.You can thank the CIA and Victoria Nuland as neocon ringleaders.Bust.In my opinion,someone was desperate for that Ukrainian gold that was taken out of the country.I think the U.S. needed it to repay Germany because they didn't have it any longer in their Reserves.Nobody can proove any different because The Federal Reserve hasn't had its' gold reserves audited since the Eisenhower Administration.Until Congress can get a new law through,the scams will continue on leasing and hypothecation of real money that is the only true money as mentioned in The U.S. Constitution.Federal Reserve notes are currency fiat paper printed notes.They are not gold backed notes.It is not constitutional as written to use a currency outside of what has been authorized.It is run as a criminal enterprise and corporation intended to destroy America as we know it.U.S. monetary policy is now controlled by a syndicate of bankers.You can't even find out who the Directors of this private corporation actually are,and they won't tell you,and are not required to under the present criminal system.http://www.silverdoctors.com/
Mr. Cohan is hindered by rule #33 on this list:
http://www.jewfaq.org/613.htm
The EU needs to stop following the US lead and just do what Putin wants when he wants the way he wants and everything will be great. Cause the US bossing peoelpe around is bad, but Putin bosing people around is great.
US empire bad, russian empire good. I got that correct, didn't I ron paul?
Who said anyone supported bossing anyone around? You leave out details that just don't support what you want to believe is true...conveniently. I wish the wprld wasas simple as you pretend.
Having two bosses is almost as good as having no boss, which is ideal.
and here's where turkey and 'DAESH' (ISIS?ISIL?IS?), the initials of the islamic state of iraq and al-sham come into play. the (PKK) kurdistan workers party has had enough FOREPLAY[?]! oct.1, 2014 is a date to keep watch[?]-- regarding the entire northern tier.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/turkey-pkk-commander-bayik-threatens-resume-war.html
[sadly]... again, erdogan is playing with fire and a tyme-table where his watch seems to have stopped?
why does he [erdogan?] want so badly to be president [dictator for life under a British Monarchy] by changing the constitution? WHY!
perhaps, 'IS' has the answers?!? to what the function of IS, is?
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/turkey-russia-ukraine-european-union-natural-gas-tanap.html
"What will Turkey do if Russia turns off Gas?" & Exclusive: "PKK commander threatens to resume WAR!"
Starting to look like those American weapons in Mosul were not so much seized as handed over, deliberately, isn't it?
At this point Putin holds all the cards, this will become more obvious as winter nears and events unfold. It seems both Russia and many of the separatist in Eastern Ukraine would support federalization. Surely, no reason exist for Kiev to be opposed other than a loss of power. A more federalized government is also the most plausible way of keeping Ukraine intact.
Support for sanctions is mixed in Europe as some countries fear Russia and have an ax to grind with Putin while others wish to move forward. Saber rattling has only lead to death and destruction. As I see it little good will come from further bloodshed and it is time for the West to stop sending money to Kiev so they can ramp up the violence and continue the civil war. More on the progress being made in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/08/eu-moving-towards-deal-on-ukraine...
You write with approval of Merkel's support for "Poroshenko's plans to give more responsibility to local authorities" as evidence that Europe is moving towards a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian conflict. You also note that "[u]nder the present system, the central government appoints provincial governors ... who are distrusted by many in the east," and indeed the installation of pro-Kiev oligarchs as governors of the eastern provinces was the spark that set off the conflagration in the first place. Having been denied their democratic choice of leadership, the citizenry responded by seizing government offices. Giving those same leaders more power would be nothing but a ploy, another in a long series of ploys by Kiev to attempt to undercut the people of Novorussia while appearing to make concessions, and the victims would not fall for it as Merkel appears to.
I am not optimistic as you are that Poroshenko and his supporters could be induced to allow the Novorussians to select their own leadership instead. As I said, I think his offer is nothing but a ploy, making federalism, your supported solution, is as impossible as it is obvious. The fundamental dishonesty of the junta has most recently been shown by its continued shelling of resistance positions after signing a supposed ceasefire, but the string of lies emitted by Kiev has been long and continuous. The government bussed in neo-Nazi thugs who burned largely peaceful protesters alive in Odessa, then claimed that the protesters had set themselves on fire, lied about the number killed, and delayed and obstructed the investigation. The same government shot down a passenger plane in an attempt to frame the rebels for it although its own prosecutor-general admitted that the resistance fighters did not have the means to attack the plane; Kiev then confiscated and concealed the air traffic control recordings in an attempt to cover up what had happened. The junta produced falsified video and audio recordings to support its "case" while blaming first Russia, then the rebels, then both, then claimed the rebels had committed the crime by acccident, all the while never explaining why it had warplanes following the passenger jet or why the jet was directed hundreds of miles north of a normal flight path and into a warzone. Following the shoot-down, the Kiev military initiated attacks into the area where the debris had fallen, preventing investigators from reaching the site and disturbing the area.
Europe has only enabled the junta's dishonesty (as well as that of the United States), supporting each outlandish lie as if it were proven fact, even insisting without evidence that Russia had staged an "invasion" of Ukraine. At this point, the Novorussians dismiss the possibility of federation and insist on independence, while the Kiev junta, driven to negotiate because its unmotivated troops were losing the war, still continued to pretend that it was negotiating with Russia rather than its own oppressed people.
For Europe to move towards a deal as you hope and claim, it must first move in the direction of the truth, but instead it continues to blame Russia for the result of Kiev's oppression of its own citizens, even as Russia persistently pursues peace. Until then, any moves the EU may make to extricate itself from the economic disaster it is baking for itself can never bear fruit.
I think "threats" still count as foreplay. Once he shuts the tap he will be f'n for real.
I live in a country that is white on that map so I dont give a FUCK about russia, ukrain or fucking germany need for gas.
It would be nice to see them at war over it though