No More Foreplay: Russia Threatens European Gas Supply Disruptions

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears Vladimir Putin is willing to hit'em while they're down. Early European equity weakness (and safe-haven flows) on asset-freeze threats have accelerated as Bloomberg reports, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak threatens gas supply disruptions if the EU continues to re-export Russian gas to Ukraine. 3Y German bond yields have plunged to -4.1bps, a record low close and European stocks are closing on their lows of the day.

  • *RUSSIA THREATENS GAS SUPPLY THROTTLING TO EUROPE: HANDELSBLATT

3Y yield at record (negative) lows...

 

As Bloomberg reports, Russia Threatens Gas Supply Throttling to Europe: Handelsblatt

EU re-exporting Russian-purchased gas to Ukraine exceeds existing treaties, Novak tells newspaper

 

Novak says only adherence to negotiated agreements can guarantee undisrupted gas supplies to Europe: Handelsblatt

 

Novak says Ukraine has rejected constructive offers from Russia on pricing, reducing Ukrainian gas debt and future pre-payments ahead of talks tomorrow in Berlin: Handelsblatt

*  *  *

Who will be hurt most?

 

*  *  *

As we discussed before, Europe is confident it can withstand a disruption as it has been storing gas ahead of the winter.

However...

European storage facilities contained a record 75.7 billion cubic meters (2.7 trillion cubic feet) of gas yesterday, making them more than 91 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group.

 

“If colder weather arrives, then storage levels could well be drained,” Citigroup said.

Just as we warned here...

It already appears as though the developing El Nino pattern may mean noticeably colder weather this winter...

 

*  *  *

It appears Europe's short-term plan to mitigate the "Winter War" may have bigger boomerang consequences than they seem to believe (and bear in mind the consequences of cold, pissed off Europeans in the past).

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TeamDepends's picture

No more foreplay, Vlad is ready to lay some pipe.

eyesofpelosi's picture

I agree and the EU has been begging for it. 

walküre's picture

The deer has landed. Tylers where is the deer? I'm getting excited!

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I wouldn't mind them turning off the gas.  Just fucking do it already. Or at least cut off Poland, and then tell the Germans if they supply poland they get cut off too.  

tony wilson's picture

i must admit putins position on the polish has been totally cuntish and soft.

polish grom have been killing russians for months for fuck sake.

and yet the rabbis of poland are still called partners.

giggler321's picture

It's just lost in translation because last time I heard Putin speak, he was still calling the West (USA/UK) partners.

In this case, War = Divorce if we're all partners I guess.

 

Latina Lover's picture

Gazprom is right to be pissed since the Ukraine refuses to pay the 5.5 billion owing on previous gas sales, and may have never intended to pay for the gas in the first instance.  Resales of gas by other EU countries to the Ukraine is nothing more than aiding and abetting the Ukraine's fraudulent attempt to cheat a major creditor.  What I find amazing is that any entity would even lend money to the Kiev Kriminal Kabal (KKK).

Publicus's picture

Don't forget the Iceland volcano

813kml's picture

It's all funny money anyway, it can appear or disappear in an instant to further Western ambitions.

Tom Terrific's picture

If I didn't pay my gas bill, I'd be cut off before I could take my next shit.  Gazprom should be more like the vulture capitalists that those they serve so love to say they admire and SHUT THE FUCKERS OFF ALREADY.

SAT 800's picture

Well, it's only natural that the criminals that created it would "help" finance it.

The Big Ching-aso's picture

C'mon ZH'ers. I think you're smarter than that. Why would Putin cut off the gas when he can supply it to desperate customers at a much higher price? And if they don 't wanna pay his first stated price then he just finds whatever higher price they're willing to pay up to a specific cut-off date. Beyond that given the choice of having gas vs no gas I think they'll pay zee whatever high price rather than freeze and shutdown doing biz, no?

Titus's picture

He's not going to sell the farm. Russia needs it or the south stream to supply gas to Europe.

silvermail's picture

Cooperation with the United States is impossible.
Any form of cooperation United States with Russia, for USA is to just another form of war against Russia.

United States does not need any partners. The United States needs only vassals. Because the United States is "an exceptional country" with "exceptional people" and "an exceptional president."
But the Russian does not want and will not be vassals of the United States. If Russian will be a choice between the status of vassals of the United States and a nuclear war, they would see only one way - a nuclear war.
I wish that the exceptional people who live in the exclusive country, do not want to teach history. For fire and radiation no difference who they kill - the ordinary person or a very exceptional man.
Amen!

Jack Burton's picture

You are on to something Silvermail. There is no cooperation or partnership with the new Neoconservative Washington War Party. They see all peoples as vassels to the "exceptional people" and that is just all there is too it. Putin is trying to bargain and curry favor with a devil, a new satan than lives in Washington DC. Just look how Washington spies on it's own people, and shakes them down for all their money to fund wars and Israeli hegemony. Putin is so soft it is not even funy anymore. He trys to glad hand Washington and gets kicked in the balls. The EU, against all their self interest, is nothing but a lacky to the Washington Neoconservative War Party.

It is getting serious, the Washingon War party now seeks to foment a European wide war, one in which the USA stands to gain everything, a return to 1950, and Europe stands to loose everything. Putin keeps waiting for Europe to wake up to how they are being played, but the EU political class is bought off with bribes, cash, jobs, and when that fails, NSA black mail, when that fails, a CIA generated illness or accident. Deal with the devil, and the devil soon owns you!

Now, I don't mean America in all this, I mean the evil whore house in Washington DC. Most people on a state level have little interest in Washington's drive for all out war.

Circle of DNA's picture

Appearing to be soft and being soft are two different things. Putin is a phenomenal diplomat and a highly skilled player; he does not issue warnings or ultimatums like some teenage girlfriend. He does not mind when some things take time and years of preparation. Time and time again, every accusation that was thrown at him was proven to be bullshit and he never shrugged, never backed into a corner and never acted irrationally. He is not some little chihuahua that mindlessly barks at every passing car, he conserves his power, he plans his moves and he does not advertise them ahead of time. He deals with treacherous Oligarchs, ruthless Zionists and a whole world of imbeciles who want  him to die.  So far, at every turn he has managed to outsmart his opponents.

Jack Burton's picture

I do hope your take is the right one! Putin is up against an evil in Washington DC's War Party.

MeMongo's picture

Go get em Pootie! Rout that den of yiddish vipers!

joego1's picture

Maybe a reindeer this time!

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

 

Europe is confident it can withstand a disruption as it has been storing gas ahead of the winter.

Yes, Europe and specifically zee Germans have been confident before that they could outlast the Russians and winter.  That didn't work out so well.

Vee surrender!  Vee vill pay zee higher gas prices and zee bill for Ukraine.

 

Draghi cannot jawbone the thermometer, and Janet cannot print BTUs.

stant's picture

Gota save some fuel to light under the tanks to get em to crank when it gets real cold

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Tanks?  Not out on the snowpack.  It will look more like this...

Alexey Volkov
Evgeny Ustyugov
Dmitry Malyshko
Anton Shipulin

vs.

Erik Lesser
Daniel Böhm
Arnd Peiffer
Simon Schempp

...and Russia won that last go-around, too, just last winter.

SAT 800's picture

caption: more damn Nazi "Supermen" surrendering.

crazybob369's picture

I hope they get good and hard, spineless cocksuckers.

Dr Strangemember's picture

If we had more global warming, there'd be no need for Europe to need all that Russian gas.  Why is Obama hating on Europe with all his Global Warming Scare Mongering???????

Callz d Ballz's picture

Or after the no lube rogering, the pipe is being removed.

junction's picture

According to Accuweather, the historical average January temperature for Kiev is about 25 degrees ºF.  With snow on the ground thanks to El Nino, that could cause Ukraine to burn through a lot of natural gas fast.  Will Germany let its citizens get chilled and have its gas-powered factories shut down to make sure Ukraine deadbeat power companies have enough gas to keep their Kiev customers nice and warm on a chilly winter's day?  I doubt it. 

Winston Churchill's picture

Safe bet. During the winter of discontent in the UK, I had power in my factory without

power outs, but not at my home.German biz will come first, then consumers, and

then ,what the fuck is a Ukraine ?

813kml's picture

It's shaping up to be the winter of discount tents and wood stoves.

ejmoosa's picture

Here's to hoping he demands payments in Au and Ag, in full.

SAT 800's picture

Nagative Bond Yields ? Wow; what a deal. Where can I get some of those ?  Is that like Gold, (doesn't pay any dividends), only worse ? How extremely attractive.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

floreplay??  he jumped right for the clitorious

Looney's picture

... with a fist  ;-)

Looney

eyesofpelosi's picture

EU: Vlad, wiggle your fingers now.

pot_and_kettle's picture

Gonna feel open-palmed around January

TeamDepends's picture

"Clitorious" indeed. It is a mysterious region, full of savages and beauty.

Stumpy4516's picture

No, he has talked about doing something, to date he has done nothing.

Putin is not talking responding to sanctions with gas supply decreases but is only talking about decreases to account for the gas diverted to Ukraine.  This is a big deal to Ukraine but not to the rest of Europe unless they are the ones who want NATO in Ukraine.

There are many more games and talk to occur over the gas to Ukraine. 

Ms. Erable's picture

Check to USA, Inc. Your move, Barry.

eyesofpelosi's picture

Barry is playing Twister with Valerie.

alexcojones's picture

PUTIN caused stocks to prematurely ejaculate-!

walküre's picture

someone pulled out early

Baby, I swear I'm not going to ...

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Oh no!

Supposed to PULL OUT not PUTIN!

williambanzai7's picture

Europeans are hearty folk and used to cold Winters, that is why Vladimir Putin will wait until it gets shit freezing cold and only then will he grab Angela Merkel by the gas short hairs and slap her over the sanctions head.

BlindMonkey's picture

It will turn her on tremendously. She is German after all.

Zaptastic's picture

It's going to be a cold winter.  Perogies are going to be frozen!

Urban Redneck's picture

This is still foreplay. Ukraine has the third largest gas storage facilities in the world (behind the USSA and USSR). That gas isn't being pumped to Ukraine to supply the Ukies (who have been priced out of the market) this winter, it's to make up for the EUSSR's usual not measuring up to the big boys that it wants to play as equals with...

The funny thing is that more than 50% of Ukraine's facilities are concentrated in Lviv (even more when one factors in the loss of the facility in Crimea and the tenuous grasp on certain eastern provinces), so if Putin (or a rogue gas trader/bankster with a net long position and an account at Blackwater, or a freezing UkieNazi) takes out one pipeline - gas prices will spike in the EU as storage capacity is re-examined.