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Silver Tumbles To 4 Year Lows As Massive Sell Order Hits At Market Open

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Because nothing says efficient market and fiduciary duty like waiting for the US equity market to open to send a huge sell order through the silver futures market... Running the entire stack (and this all resting stops), however, silver has immediately bounced back... Gold was relatively unaffected. Copper had also got plugged early on and is now ripping higher.

 

 

and close up...

 

Copper hit earlier and bounced also..

 

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Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:41 | 5255125 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Is this a similar ransacking of SLV just like GLD last year to grab the physical? China's exchange is nearly out of the stuff.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:45 | 5255135 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Coin shop is out too......

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:52 | 5255157 Publicus
Publicus's picture

The future is peer to peer currencies. Not barbaric metals!

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:55 | 5255166 Arius
Arius's picture

how about 40 years low?

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:04 | 5255201 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Embracing a digital wallet is a keystone in giving up what remains of your freedom.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:01 | 5255552 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Amen.  Anonymity is the new currency.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 21:02 | 5258173 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Barbaric metals are the ultimate peer to peer currency. No infrastructure required, and built in anonymity.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:56 | 5255181 agstacks
agstacks's picture

"out"...

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:13 | 5255252 mt paul
mt paul's picture

SD bullion   100 oz's  buffalos

less than 19 $ delivered...

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:54 | 5255482 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

As I've said before (5186639), the real action can be detected via the SPREAD in bullion prices, and its steady increase.  That's the real "Canary in the Coalmine":  The bigger the spread, the higher its pitch and urgency.  Until it keels over, and becomes an ex-Canary.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:06 | 5255921 actionjacksonbrownie
actionjacksonbrownie's picture

Just got an email from a large Canadian PM retailer that regularly has "specials" on various PM products. Today's special:

 

1oz. Silver Canadian "Moose" coins - limited edition 1 million mintage - $4.50 off

 

"Sale" price is $29.62 in bulk (plus delivery)

 

That is some "sale"

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 20:17 | 5258044 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Ordered 2x 100 oz jpm silver bars from them on Friday - 19'th. Usually I would have my order by now, but am starting to receive messages about "payment delays" ( I used interac e-transfer) I am starting to get nervous. I smell smoke.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:46 | 5255136 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Thats what i'm thinking.

Until we get yuan convertability in the Shanghai FTZ, we are'nt going to see true price

discovery, but the writings on the wall for COMEX and the LMBA.Hence the looting now.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:49 | 5255148 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Maybe so. I was wondering why they waitird until the open when there is more liquidity instead of the normal 8:30 ravaging when they can enlist the aid of everyone who has learned to expect the normal 8:30 ravaging

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:58 | 5255188 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Tactical mistake.  The quick bounce-back is what I'm looking at.  Momentum ignition: failed.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:03 | 5255208 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

guys, harvey organ follows inventory of GLD & SLV. Inventory in SLV hasn't changed in days so he suspects the gold cartel gutted SLV last year sometime....nothing left now but pile of paper. 

which means this time....this is it.....market rigging has rigged itself into suicidal mode. 

Me, I can't wait to see Janet tell Vlad & Chinese, sorry......we are dfaulting on dec contract...no silver. ... sorry

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:29 | 5255328 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

SLV's inventory has not changed since 2011.  I highly suspect it was looted for the takedown at that time.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:48 | 5255430 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

December contracts will be rolled as quid pro quo for US not opposing China's takeback of Senkaku/Diaoyo islands. Either the US turns a blind eye or PBoC crashes Comex & LBMA with JPM as collateral damage. Not really a hard decision. So sorry, Japan.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:30 | 5255335 explosivo
explosivo's picture

I don't know about that guy. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:44 | 5255813 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

The first things I think whenever someone gives me financial advice is: What is he selling? and what are his current positions?

Once I get answers to those questions, everything becomes clear.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:43 | 5255129 OceanX
OceanX's picture

All will be well.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:45 | 5255131 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The Nobel Prize Winner needs cheap silver for the Tomahawks he is gifting the people of Syria.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:56 | 5255171 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Gift deliveries have definitely increased.

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:04 | 5255577 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

When you can rig the market at will and create currency at will, WTF do the PM prices matter?

It's fine to BTFD, but you'd better be liquid enough (have assured cashflow) to go the distance.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:31 | 5255738 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

PMs will have value when the dollar does not.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:13 | 5255625 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

China must be laughing, and BTFD - given the oil and PM prices.  Russia, OTOH, not so much...

Given that this is messing with Russia's Revenues/Budget.  Which seems to be the REAL goal:  Either provoke Russia into unwinnable action, or to impoverish their Revenues (starve them financially) until Putin's regime is weakened internally.

The Neo/Zio-Cons are still a LOT tougher and craftier than ZHers give them credit for.  It's fine to critique or criticize, but it's better to remain objective and not just project one's hopes and wishes - which I think is often the case here.  This drama has many, many months left before it gets truly hot. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:54 | 5255867 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Months? Aren't you the optimist.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:19 | 5256010 BigJim
BigJim's picture

5 years ago I thought people were optimistic when they opined everything would collapse in 2011/2012/2013... and yet, here we are.

This shit may have years to run.

Meanwhile, my piles of shiny are just as shiny. But if I'd invested elsewhere, I could now have rather more shiny.

TPTB are - so far - winning hands down.

Seriously - how long can Assad last? He's lost most of his territory, many of his oil wells, and most of the region are doing their utmost to bring him down and turn Syria into an Oded Yinon wonderland of endless sectarian civil war.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:00 | 5256244 agent default
agent default's picture

You mean it's not collapsing?  Take a look around you.  Russia got their way in Ukraine.  US backed off Syria intervention and is looking increasingly stupid in the Middle East trying to deal with what it has created there.  The dollar is being dumped from world trade and judgind by the price action, someone is gettng ready to gine COMEX the finger.

It is collapsing at an accelerated rate.  Obviously not overnight, not many people really argued for an overnight collapse, but the collapse is happening and accelerating right now.

Fri, 09/26/2014 - 16:58 | 5261169 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

hindsight is 20/20

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:47 | 5255142 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I measure the value of silver in terms of its shine; the paper version has none.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:46 | 5255143 RattNRoll
RattNRoll's picture

Keep stacking even when the depressing times such as these kick you in the balls repeatedly.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:07 | 5255232 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Hell - Monster Boxes are under $10k now.  If I wasn't in the middle of building farm infrastructure right now, I'd be all-in.  

Corrected for inflation, this is probably a better price than when Ag was last at $12/oz.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:03 | 5255564 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

For me, buying silver <$20/oz. has never felt like getting kicked in the balls.  It's more like a discounted lap-dance.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:50 | 5256200 cooky puss
cooky puss's picture

Truer words brother

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:47 | 5255144 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I almost want to borrow money to buy silver at such a low price, but that's probably a bad idea.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:53 | 5255162 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

It's a bad idea if you're looking to increase the drone patrols overhead.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:45 | 5255410 PathForward
PathForward's picture

It's tempting. In order to keep things in perspective, I've identified certain price points where I'm planning to borrow relatively small amounts of money to make additional purchases (using our home equity credit line). The reason I'm going to do that has very little to do with increasing my long-term savings. Instead, I'm doing it because it's a way that I can exert nonviolent forces that will help to catalyze change on Earth.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:48 | 5255145 dressguard
dressguard's picture

Another fat finger! LOL!

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:48 | 5255146 jubber
jubber's picture

All DOW components red

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:52 | 5255154 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

It always pays to wait for Options expiration  before placing the stacking order. Always.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:26 | 5255309 explosivo
explosivo's picture

You might be right, Maggot.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:52 | 5255161 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Dive it down to zero bitchez and get it overwith.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:00 | 5255193 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

From your lips to the central bankers ears.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:53 | 5255163 skbull44
skbull44's picture

Yep, unmanipulated markets for sure!

 

http://olduvai.ca

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:56 | 5255176 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

stupid question is this the price of silver metal, or silver paper?

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:56 | 5255183 Madcow
Madcow's picture

The UK is now thinking about perhaps considering measures to make market manipultion and fraud illegal in the UK. 

There's a chance that might potentially encourage US regualtors to do the same - 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/u-k-seeks-to-criminalize-manipu...

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:03 | 5255204 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

You mean it is legal? Only in a PINKO COMMIE FASCIST world!

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:59 | 5255187 agstacks
agstacks's picture

DOW and NASDAQ are shitting the bed..

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:59 | 5255525 numapepi
numapepi's picture

I love that term, "shitting the bed," It is a red neck way of making a point.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 09:59 | 5255192 agstacks
agstacks's picture

<------Low is in

<------Low is not in

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:02 | 5255198 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

For today?  Maybe.  I will, as always, await the Tyler's report about the bloodbath and immediately push all the chips on the table.  (You notice how leery they are getting about posting such articles lately?)

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:09 | 5255238 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

No the low is not likely in.  

I've dealt with many investors over the years that fixated on a fixed price to sell a stock in their portfolio.  Waiting for that last nickel rise has cost some of them plenty of dollars.  

 

If you want it, buy it.  If you believe in it, buy it.  IF the story changes, then sell it.  

If you just watch it, you may always be watching.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:34 | 5255352 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Going out on a limb here: Yes, the bottom is in. Whatever the low was over the last two weeks, when they have clearly gone all in, will hold. Now, if they go full-retard and dump a gazillion paper ounces on the market at once and drive the "price" down to say $15, you won't be able to buy any at that price because it is all in strong hands. Your local store will either hang a "gone fishin'" sign on the door or charge a premium that will drive the true price to $20.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:07 | 5255598 jaxville
jaxville's picture

   Your local store should be able to sell at the new low price unless the owner is a fool and speculating in his or her own inventory.  As long as they can replace inventory they can sell at lower prices without realizing a loss. The trick is to maintain a constant inventory.

  Watching the premiums (spread) is important but one should also be cognizant of delivery times.  Delivery time will tell you a great deal more about actual supply and demand issues.

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:45 | 5256476 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

My LCS is already doing that. last time I was in there, spot was around 18.30 or so, and he was still selling ASEs, maples, and APHs for 23, which is what they were last time i bought some when the spot was at 20. He pretty much said thats his floor right now

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:45 | 5255817 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Not sure if the low is in, but in the past whenever I've seen a downward spike like the one this morning in silver (look at a 5 min chart at 9:30 ET), the price has always bounced and trended up for at least a few days. Looks like it's happening again today.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:03 | 5255196 dow2000
dow2000's picture

I'd be wary, running all those stops puts them all on the hook for the pending drop lower and lowers the support with next liquidation order.

Additionally, today's market action seems to indicate broad based route underway.  Silver will be swept away with it.  I'd be pretty scared if I wasn't hedged right now.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:01 | 5255199 youngman
youngman's picture

It baffles my little mind as to why gold and silver are not in bubbles like everything else....they should be....bonds are..stocks are...why not PMs....I cant figure it out...

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:05 | 5255219 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Shorting of the paper is outpacing the buying of the physical is what I believe.

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:16 | 5255268 OceanX
OceanX's picture

PM's are trapped in an antibubble.  An antibubble, is a pocket of liquid trapped by a film of gas. -> http://supernovacondensate.net/2010/11/18/whats-the-opposite-of-a-bubble/

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:41 | 5255798 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Cool analogy. Thanks for that. Always nice to learn something new and interesting.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:23 | 5255298 mt paul
mt paul's picture

because physical silver and gold

are really money...

 

every thing else 

is just fiat fantazy ...

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:19 | 5255677 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Perhaps they are in bubbles.

Silver was like $2.50 an ounce 13 year ago.  It went to $40.00.

Gold was around $250 an ounce 13 years ago....
 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:37 | 5255775 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

You are incorrect my good friend. If you do the math you will find that going back to the price when Tricky Dickey closed the gold window, the price of gold has not even kept up with the rise in inflation. A completely bizarre circumstance, and further proof that the price of PM's is being artificially manipulated, and certainly not in a bubble. When it gets to $10,000, then maybe.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:37 | 5256107 Quaderratic Probing
Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:04 | 5255205 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Do you test the silver you get when purchasing?  I have been buying from APMEX and ILB. I see tarnish on the edges of the rounds once in a while.  Is that a concern?

If you do test, how do you do so?

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:09 | 5255243 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Are you handling it without gloves ?

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:12 | 5255256 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Yes, I have handled it without gloves.  

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:18 | 5255273 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Sweat from your hands is causing the tarnish.Does it to gold as well.

I ruined some proof coins of my grandfather that way when I was a kid.

I still remember the beating my father gave me.

Never fuck with A Swiss's PMs.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:23 | 5255297 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Thanks for the feedback.  Sorry about the beatings.  I can relate.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:12 | 5255251 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

with silver, a magnet is usually good enough to test. gold coinage needs a scratch test with the sulfuric/nitric acid. if you buy bars, you may be gettin' fucked

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:23 | 5255304 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Thanks.  As Reagan said "Trust but verify".  

I appreciate your response.

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:29 | 5255329 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

A magnet won't tell you anything. Silver plated items are made of alloys made of nickel and copper, similar to post 1965 coins. Stick a magnet on your change and nothing happens. Doesn't mean it's silver

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 14:54 | 5256802 Agstacker
Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:24 | 5255305 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Silver will tarnish. I have seen sterling that has tarnish even in a sealed sleeve. Silver plate will tarnish even faster. To test you will need a small bottle of nitric acid ( Ebay about $5) with a file make a tiny groove in the item and place a small drop of the acid on the file mark. Silver will turn the acid red. If you see any green or blue acid it is reacting to nickel or copper in the piece and this is not good

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:34 | 5255350 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Thanks Mr. Pink...

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:32 | 5256081 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Yes:

1) weigh them

2) measure them

3) 'ping' test them

4) compare them

5) magnet test

6) if doubts remain, nitric acid test

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:04 | 5255215 Balvan
Balvan's picture

We'll see $10 silver in 2015

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:24 | 5255306 MeMongo
MeMongo's picture

Mongo would love to see $8 silver right about February 2015 when he gets his tax return.....would seem like old times....sorta like Adam 12! What Mongo like to term PRE obombo America!

Fri, 09/26/2014 - 11:38 | 5259770 MsCitizen2
MsCitizen2's picture

Mongo forget!

Pre Obombo America was Dubyo America.

 

 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:06 | 5255223 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

GSR almost at 70. Will we see 75? 80?

BTFD in the Falling Knife, BackupTheTruck Contest

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:06 | 5255226 mt paul
mt paul's picture

Buy the physical

while you still can

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:08 | 5255234 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

"We're Gonna Need a Bigger Truck!"

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:12 | 5255260 Lanka
Lanka's picture

Since early July, the Dollar Index gained 7%, and COMEX Silver dropped 19%.  

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:14 | 5255265 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Bottom is officially in !

 

Thanks ZH.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:24 | 5255307 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

High or low prices I'm a buyer of physical every month.

Next buy date in 6 days.

Buy it (with money you don't/won't need), hide it, forget about it and definitely forget about the price whether up or down.

Let everyone else play their games and have some fun. Operate at a higher level than these pricks. But then are they pricks if they keep offering you the chance at ever lower prices? Everything's possible so perhaps in a few years we'll be laughing at their stupdity and reckless behavior. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:28 | 5255321 sudzee
sudzee's picture

The bottom might be in for physical but paper has a long way to go yet. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:29 | 5255336 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Correction: "We're gonna need a bigger boat. . . "

And a deeper pond.

Fri, 09/26/2014 - 15:41 | 5260911 One of We
One of We's picture

I diversify into multiple boats and frequent fresh as well as salt water.  More boats = more boating accidents.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:33 | 5255348 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Went to my LCS yesterday afternoon in Phoenix.

Lots of inventory. They lowered the premium on generic silver rounds. Clerk there told me 3-4 weeks ago, when silver was @ $20 an oz, that silver might fall to $18.

Bought some at historic price (date) of $17.76 and look forward to either historic date of $16.06 or $18.65 soon. I sure hope for $50.50 but King World News is not in my immediate mindset.

Same LCS fellow said he would not be surprised if silver fell into the $16s. I will try to catch a falling knife all the way down - in small purchases - since my boat and pond is not that capacious.

Alex reporting from PHX

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:26 | 5255714 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Who's your dealer? All the coin stores I deal with here in San Diego are completely out of stock (or they're telling me they are). I'm wondering if they don't really want to sell at these prices. The pisser is that these smackdowns happens so fast and so early that by the time I get a chance to buy, the prices have bounced off the lows.

How did you buy at 17.76 when the low was only 7.27? Your dealer must have some really low premiums.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:56 | 5255869 moonstears
moonstears's picture

They are out of PROFITABLE stock, crazybob.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:30 | 5256063 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

In the back room there's $35 coins they don't want to sell at a loss?

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:30 | 5256404 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

I'm sure they are, that's why I want to know who this guy is buying from. My dealers are telling me they can sell me the stuff, but I'll have to wait 4-6 weeks. Meaning, they will take my money and order at the current prices, then deliver to me in a month or so.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 15:49 | 5257061 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I buy from Provident or JM bullion online, sure you have to wait longer but I get the rock bottom price and don't have to pay sales tax :)

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:34 | 5255349 brunoaa
brunoaa's picture

The Chinese benefit greatly of this manipulated price and are probably behind it along with the too big too fail banks who are buying back the leased gold which they sold in the past few years. I think the Fed just remains passive even though higher gold price would help them with their inflation target. So don't expect a change until the Chinese and the TBTF have reached their objectives.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:59 | 5255527 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

yes the prices are manipulated. because the money can. 

trade with it, not against it. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:58 | 5255513 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

That is called a "whale track" that revealed a Buyer as the population of sellers was inherently nuked in favor of the buyer getting great trade location. I have some ideas who the buyers are because that is his tracks. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 10:59 | 5255528 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

What if knocking the price of Silver and Gold down encouraged buying at the lower prices?

What if buying increased and fiat $USD was spent on said Au, Ag?

What if all that fiat is then taken out of circulation?

What if buying subsided and so another knock down was necessary?

What if even MORE fiat $USD was taken out of circulation?

What happens when more and more fiat $USD is taken out of circulation vs. printing to infinity and beyond?

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:01 | 5255544 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

the fiat increases in value and equity markets decline. 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:30 | 5256403 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Fiat doesn't go 'out of circulation' when you buy PMs any more than any other item; its ownership just gets transferred to the seller.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 11:25 | 5255702 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Stop the manipulation talk.  This is probably a mutual or hedge fund that couldn't hold on to its SLV position any more.  It is a good thing to get the weak hands out.  They are still out there.  My dad is still holding all his underwater positions in silver and I am sad to say he is a weak hand.  I told him to buy gold instead as silver is the bitch metal.

 

Sorry silver bugs.  It is true.  It is held by the poor who will sell when times get bad.  The rich hold gold and they don't sell.  

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:38 | 5256125 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Why "sorry silver bugs"?  I don't give a sh!t what your stupid relatives do. I buy & hold, precisely because I have no intention of ever being poor.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:14 | 5255984 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Where are the Hunt brothers when you need them?

This is really remarkable that the PM prices are depressed in this economic environment, it really does smell like somebody (!?) is purposely depressing them, even in the case of constant demand for physical from China and India.  Is big money really all going into real estate instead?  Or Fed-inflated equities?  or 400-foot yachts?  or bendable iPhones?

So I estimated yesterday it would take OTOO two billion dollars to take a run at squeezing the entire silver market.  The other side of the question is, how much could you profit from doing so?  Well, you could end up with several thousand tons of physical silver briefly worth a nominal ten billion dollars, let's say, that you acquired for the bargain price of two billion, but the odds are that you could not unload it at ten billion dollars, the price would fall back down to an un-manipulated four billion, and even unloading the physical at that price might take a year.  So, on the trade itself, maybe double your money in a year.  Not bad.  And you could probably make another two billion during the runup as your excess paper contracts went up in value as well.  So conservatively a squeeze could triple a two-billion dollar investment.  Let's do it!

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:04 | 5256274 Midas
Midas's picture

I've had the same thought myself, but I would pick up a shit-ton of options contracts on miners before I picked up the metal.  If you could get the price of silver even to 25 bucks you could double all those options without a problem.  There are many individuals who could make this happen, not to mention institutions.  I am also surprised Putin hasn't done this, since he seems like a guy who likes to have a good time.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:26 | 5256390 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

You are missing one important point: there is no way those contracts would ever be settled in phys silver. It is simply not available, so they would just settle it in dollars. It's already been done (forget the name of the bank, AmBro or something like that). Also, I believe that one of the reasons for the manipulation of these markets is to get the physicals into the hands of some big players, at reduced pricing (China, JP Morgan). Only when they have acquired all the PMs they need, at the lowest possible prices, will the price be allowed to rise. Until then, the futures market is just a sucker's game, because no one has enough money to go up against these guys.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 14:01 | 5256556 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

But that's exactly the point, you don't have to corner the paper market at all, you only have to squeeze the physical market that is so much smaller.  Only it's not that small really, if the numbers posted here the other day are correct, there is a LOT of physical silver out there if anybody really wants it.  So I'm estimating a squeeze based only on the 2,500 tons per year typically used for coins/bullion.  There's 10x as much out there without too much effort, but I think if you presented a demand for "only" about 7,000 tons, you'd have your squeeze.  I don't even know how many paper contracts there are out there, way too many I hope and that's exactly why we could pick them up cheap and get this rolling.

And if they can't get the physical silver to deliver sure they can settle in dollars but only at the squeezed price, and that's just fine, in fact it's even better and you can happily offer them a 50% discount!

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:25 | 5256038 GIABO
GIABO's picture

The Gold to Silver ratio is about 70:1. Therefore, I want to buy more silver than gold? Is this correct? ty

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:51 | 5256204 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

70:1  Yeah, that's truly outrageous.  Can only imagine devreased industrial demand is a significant factor.  I'm buying silver any way I can, as often as I can.  Lately I have access to pre-1964 junk at 14 x face value, yileding silver at approximately spot price.

It ain't perfect & it's not pretty, but I'm not complaining.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:21 | 5256368 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Ratios have two sides by nature can't point at one side alone.

Silver gold ratio is 16 to 1 based on natural in ground %

Price is not bound by that ratio.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:43 | 5256456 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

The g/s ratio was 16 to 1 for about 1 day in the last 100+ years.  I am not sure waiting for 16 to one is a good strategy.  Just saying.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:50 | 5256509 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Right there is no return to 16:1 but is see people talking like and doing the math as if 70:1 means something , silver has to rise to get there again

Not true 

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:40 | 5256146 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

We are blessed to have such a fair and efficiently run market. [sarcasm]

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 12:59 | 5256247 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

We are approaching 70 on the g/s ratio.  Woah, that is a big number.  31 is like a faint memory.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:02 | 5256267 qazwsx
qazwsx's picture

silver eagles premiums are like $3!  lol  

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:04 | 5256276 Conax
Conax's picture

Wanna know why the GSR is at 70 to 1?

Bankers hold lots of gold. Silver, nada.

That's all you need to know.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:15 | 5256334 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

At least one other gets it.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:14 | 5256324 jubber
jubber's picture

So Gold up Silver down 25 cents...time to nibble a little more

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:18 | 5256355 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Okay, I love to knock on the silverites.  But let me mention something serious.  There has been a major breakout on the g/s ratio after it was range-bound in the 58-66 range for over a year.  You may want to ask yourself before buying more silver what it means.  The last time the ratio was this high was a major crisis.  The time before that was 2001-2002.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:26 | 5256391 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

So......*don't* buy silver?.........

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:45 | 5256477 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

It is performed terribly in each economic downturn.  Is the g/s ratio prognosticating a downturn....maybe.  QE dollars end next month.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:59 | 5256559 Conax
Conax's picture

That's why they're beating the shit out of it this month. If it does take off, it will be from a lower level, mitigating the spike. The PPT/Stabilization fund will take it from there.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 14:20 | 5256636 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

I just noticed that the gold/platinum ratio has had a good move up through today.  Not sure what it means.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:46 | 5256482 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Large traders line in red. Silver

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1

Price follows the large traders wheat below

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=d1

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 13:49 | 5256487 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

Me thinks Putin is behind this. Keep it up buddy! My bonus will be here in 10 days!

It is just weird that with how expesnsive all this everyday crap we buy is but PM''s are just sinking. I feel like i'm taking crazy pills! 

Luckily, i will retire AFTER all this TRANSITORY banker bullshit & geopolitical shenanigins.  

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 14:03 | 5256576 cooperbry
cooperbry's picture

oh, what's an Empire to do? ...

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 14:09 | 5256590 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

I've noticed a significant increase in the down votes for digital currency. This is a big turnaround from a year ago.

I'm glad to see many of you are finally coming to your senses.

Thu, 09/25/2014 - 15:58 | 5257091 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

 

Posted this yesterday......

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 21:13 | 5254179Quaderratic Probing

 

Perfect time for a naked short about 400 tons, 3 strikes on the chart the computers will see it and flush. All stop losses will kick in to finish the job.

 

Tick tock...

 

Fri, 09/26/2014 - 11:27 | 5259718 Johnny_is_alrea...
Johnny_is_already_taken's picture

Can anyone tell me where to get Silver Eagles cheap very close to spot in NJ or NY ?

 

Thanx

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