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What Wall Street Thinks About Today's Selloff
Aside from Russian threats, weaker-than-expected Durable Goods, and #Bendgate, here are nine other reasons for today's sell-off...
Via FBN Securities' Michael Naso,
Thoughts from the Options Desk and the Technical Desk about this Mornings Action
Month End: It’s the last day for underperforming or performing hedge funds to get names off the books so they don’t show up in quarterly report which equates to selling pressure.
Position Closing: Chatter that there was and maybe still is a massive asset allocator selling equities and buying bonds to rebalance books as the equity move made them a bit too long equities which again equates to selling pressure.
Holiday: There is very little liquidity because of the Jewish holiday making any selling pressure magnified however as of noon the S&P 500 is running +20% vs its 30 day average volume.
High Yield: Many High Yield traders have been trying to sell HY and IG bonds today with quarter end upon us, much like they did at the end of the June Qtr. Given the lack of liquidity and participants today, HY sellers have no bids to hit, so they have turned to selling equities and underlying names to hedge their positions or de-risk. Tuesday the slope of the BofA Us High Yield Master II OAS 200 dma turned higher for the first time since May 2012. The changing of trend has forewarned of equity markets largest reversals since inception of this HY index.
SKEW: SPX Skew is at some of its highest levels in years, showing traders are running for out of the money puts, usually spike skew is closer to a bottom then a top.
Volatility: VIX is up 18%, its biggest 1 day % move since July 31st.
TRIN: Highest intraday TRIN reading since Feb 3rd '14, which is an indication of material selling pressure (the Feb 3 spike marked the years low).
Sentiment: Bears in the AAII survey jump to a 7 week high, majority of the new Bears moved from the Neutral camp rather then from the Bullish camp.
S&P 500 Levels of Support: 1954.50 ( 100 dma), 1946-44, 1936
Chart Below Showing High Yield putting pressure on Small caps which in turn is applying pressure to the S&P 500
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BTFD
Somebody said the Jews stayed home for 9/11
plenty of Jews died on 9/11.
Only one or two Israelis though - although Frum's speech absolutely lied to claim it was over 100.
Odigo, Zim, Urban Moving Systems, Dancing Israelis.... but of course... Israel could not have been involved because it would be racist to cite evidence that they were.
dum dee dum.
Who cares what Wall Street thinks about today's sell off?
We want to know the thoughts of greasy Jersey Shore C-Team television journalists with negative net worth, outstanding student loans, and three credit cards with big balances.
Safe to say? Really, Matt? According to what source, or is this an opinion piece? Did you actually interview anyone that has been bearish since 2008? You know, to see what their performance has been? No?
Awesome journalism, there, Matt! Pure sell-side propaganda. Chock full of fallacious arguments...Goebbels would be proud of a young fascist like you.
Good idea for you to stay away from tough concepts such as risk-adjusted return, nominal versus real return, and the fallacy of market timing. I hope your parents and grandparents enjoy eating dogfood in their retirement, because ZIRP and idiots like you force them into risk assets like the S&P 500 right before it dumps, again, and you lose your job because Wall Street won't be able to afford whores for a while...even cheap whores.
Speaking of that, does Liesman know you borrowed his pom-poms?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-15/happy-birthday-lehman-bankruptc...
Hey Tyler, we just learned of "Quantum Down", a couple of cyber attack bank drills to be held 10/16-17 and 10/23-24. Since these "drills" often seem to go live maybe you could research and make a thread?
more false flags sooner than that; NYC & Paris subways; http://www.aol.com/article/2014/09/25/iraqi-pm-plot-to-attack-us-paris-s...
US software giant Adobe will shut its research arm in Beijing by the end of the year, laying off 350 people, according to a statement, as foreign technology firms face a worsening business climate in China.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-software-firm-adobe-shut-china-research...
Definitely Bullish.
The Chinese finally noticed that those automatic Acrobat Reader updates aren't exactly what they say they are?
Lmao, most chinese computers are probably still running a pirated copy of windows XP and adobe acrobat 9.
The big fear is rates. Marc Faber says rates will be a catalyst for market decline.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/09/marc-faber-a-raise-in-interest-rat...
The DOW has reached his peak. But this doesn't mean a dramatic crash is on the way. The economy is more like a gut-shot bear. What we have is an endles Japanese-style recession. It's going to be a long haul.
Deflationary Depression is what we're in and the so-called, "market" will keep drifting lower another 40-60% imo.
Fundamentals are finally kicking in. The 'consumer' is Broke; production stinks and municipalities are bankrupt and banks are leveraged to the moon.
Long ... cheap donuts, cheap beer, 'Boone's Farm' wine and 'Dirty Pee Blended Whiskey' and stupid TV progams.
They're busy blowing their shofar, and eating honey covered apple slices.
I hear ya and boy does it suck.
The chinese aren't really interested in having a lot of foreign prescence in their country. Once they have extracted the knowledge they need from their foreign "partners" a ton of barriers will suddenly appear that favor chinese companies over foreign. Don't be surprised if a great many multi-nationals bail on china in the next few years as the chinese make their existence more miserable.
Those silly Chinese and their silly notions of nationalism and race. How quaint.
People who say Snowden is fake can explain how his handlers decided it would be a good idea to destroy the US technology industry.
The Chinese don't want their Cisco routers calling home or the various backdoors that come with Windows, etc. Out side of a few places like Australia, nobody else likes it either. The end result is strong motivation to create non-USA/ Zato sources.
Hi Tel Aviv-bot reading my post.
Because the Joos are different ?
The multinationals technology will be taken and they will have a low cost competitor in China. Like Cisco competitor that is not infested with En Ess Aye spyware crap.
Might be infested wth someone elses spyware crap, though.
Nah man. It simply isn't plausible nor do they present one iota of evidence that such attacks really have been planned much less put into the execution phase. This is propaganda. They will keep throwing up false alerts until they judge the public's attitude is just right for whatever they do have planned next. It's all just conditioning.
Sucks when morons are on the right side of a trade and appear as savants, but it happens.
The best risk-adjusted trade has been long SPX. This guy is right. Until he isn't.
...and they have the perceived credibility of working for CNN.
I didn't see any buy and sell receipts, only criticism and hindsight. Bearish doesn't mean zero return. A crystal ball that shows the bottom and top in real time is something all of us would love to have, but nobody does. If his entry point is the last bottom, when does he exit the position, and what does he do with the proceeds? My point is that his comment is so pedestrian, so fallacious, that it can only be designed to lure the sheep in to the slaughter.
Long health insurers since The Obamacare Bill has destroyed long SPX.
So have tubular steel private placements.
I took all the principle out of my IRA, everything that i could take out without the penalties, and bought physical. I rode the S&P up to 1894, and dumped it. I went short with SPXS around 1950(it was 27 a share, can't remember exactly where the market was at that point). And, I have lost about 10% since then, even after today. I know all of this is a farce, and knew it even when I was still long S&P, but right now, the dollar still buys things, and, unless today marks the beginning of the next inevitable downturn(i doubt it), the farce will likely continue. There are still ways to make money even as we continue in this depression. I own UPS, which pays pretty good dividends, and was a bet on the continued decline of brick and mortar retail, since people, inclding myself, tend to prefer ordering a lot of things online, and it has done very well for me(I consider it a sort-of 'short' of brick and mortar retail stores). I also own advanced auto parts, which has also done very well. I bought that because, despite 84 month sub-prime financing, most people still can't afford them, or like me, choose to keep driving my 10 year old tahoe becuase it still runs and looks good. The average age of vehicles on the road keeps going up, which means they are spending more to maintain them. This economy has also caused many to do simple repairs like brakes themselves. I consider this to be a type of short of the auto industry
yep. very sensible.
I call conformist coward hiding behind a wall of illusion....
Yeah, actually, that was my reaction immediately; who cares what they think, or say? I don't.
So there are Jewish Algos now?
<facepalm>
pods
umm.... what?? That doesn't make a lick of sense to me - does it to you>?
Were you even responding to my response?
You know what - it turns out I don't give a fuck.
n/m
;0p
My reply was based upon this:
As most all stocks traded nowadays are program trading, wtf does a Jewish Holiday have on a computer program?
My response was not directed at you, merely getting in the comment tree.
It's fine if you don't give a fuck, that is the first step in making the moneychangers irrelevant. The next step is stop using their credit. Then they get all nervous and make the government expand debt at an exponential rate.
pods
18
18
hey pods - I can dig it.
I don't know if I got junked above for suggesting Jewish people were, in fact, killed on 9/11 [they were] or for suggesting people cry antisemite if you suggest there's evidence linking Israel and their sayanim to 9/11 [they do and there is].
Either way - I don't give a fuck.
And thanks for the response, in any event!
Interesting thing that. Do you suppose that Mossad represents the people of Israel the same way the CIA represents the people of the US? I think we all know that the vast majority of people in both countries have absolutely no clue what is being done in their name. I think we all know that the massive heroine influx is simply a hidden tax used to fund CIA black ops around the world. Certainly other agencies like Mossad have their own criminal enterprises for such funding.
I do wonder how Hamas acquires all those rockets.
I do wonder where ISIS gets those orange jumpsuits.
Ok, you got me, not really.
Hmmm. Why would a holiday for a comparatively minor religion followed by a small percentage of the population affect liquidity? I wonder what kinds of jobs its followers hold?
double tap
oi vey!
So, we should expect Wall Street to let us know when they think the market is going to tank?
Do u ever sell? How much bankroll do u have?
The "market" has not existed since 2009. I had to see this headline to even know it was open today......
Nobody seems to notice that the last minute "melt up to green" has been far less reliable the last few weeks than previous. "Melting up to higher red" isn't good enough, unless you're cool with losing your money just a little slower.
I've been short the Russell 2000 most of the year and I'm in the money. BTFD'ers playing the Russell are in the red.
Something has changed.
Yessir. Short IWM and things like pcln have been money. This is of course part of the huge divergence in the mkt. We r only 3 days removed from all time highs on the Dow and S&P and u have have like 42 new highs 250 new lows.
I dont understand the zero hedgers (for the most part) screaming once again to BTFD. This is your chance, the oligarchs are about to fleece it again and after 5 years ur going to screw it all up
BTFD refers directly to hard assets like physical gold and silver.
I'm with you on that
WOT? Must be some mistake surely.
Tapering means less money to support equities and bonds. First $rut selloff as the available FED support (liquidity) to primary dealers went to bonds, SPX. Then bonds sold off and equities were largely untouched. Then rates hit resistance and bonds rallied and SPX sold off. Since 2008 its been about large amounts of FED liquidity, going forward liquidity will become smaller and smaller leading to more volatility. If tax collections decline, more FED support will go into keeping rates low and equitites may suffer.
The Workings Of The Shanghai International Gold Exchange, Part One
https://www.bullionstar.com/article/the%20workings%20of%20the%20shanghai...
moar sellerz than buyerz
heres the real reason: banks need to sell stocks to load up on treasuries for "quarter end pretend we're not insolvent balance sheet bullshit".
"Quarter end pretend we're not insolvent balance sheet bullshit".
We need to see about getting this phrase added to as many economic textbooks as possible. It's got such an awesome ring to it.
you may well be right. Even so, i bet we'll see a nice short squeeze tomorrow, with the S&P up a healthy(looking) 15 points or so, nicely green going into the weekend. Not "buying the dip" myself, just a prediction. Since i am into SPXS, I hope I am wrong.
Carl, no offense, but I hope you get squashed for doing your bit to keep the casino fabricating away.
There is very little liquidity because of the Jewish holiday...
but but...how can that be - it's 2.6% of the national population!
why the junks? is my % off?
They may not be working, but they definately be trolling.
Fuggin zioqueers
+1 for the avatar...
+1 for the juxtaposition of your 2 avatars...
one shows how "buyers" look to "dealers"..
Your % is off, Duffy.
Its the 4% of your 2.6% that everyone is under the thumb of. The other 2.5% are probably hard working Americans (and Jewish, not Zionist).
Junked for bad math. The holiday applies to a small enough subset to illicit suprise. Your point is just more detail.
USJPY may be starting to move lower here?
I thought all these were at one point or another given as good reasons for buying the market. WTF?
What a sweeet way to make a living, fit the question to the answer AFTER the answer has been given.
Thank you, I appreciate the daily and weekly updates on Fridays. Honestly, no sarcasm.
Too bad its Thursday.
Give the man some slack. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Germans?
obvious "Animal House" reference
BTW
Forget it, he's rolling.
Today's report was not a weekly update. That will come tomorrow, probably after 4 pm EST.
Are you with me in my compliments to the author?
Bah, it's just an irrational exhuberance dick trolling to setup the inevitable BTFD. You'd all better lever up for tomorrow's buying opertunity. Quick, go out and remortgage you 3rd boat, porsche and vacation home(s).
If Wall Street wanted me to place any value on anything they say, they would have told me all this yesterday.
That's it! Hit 'em while they are on holiday!
Bongo.
Gee I thought all the 'smart money' went all in fully leveraged on Fridays full retard record closing ramp....so I guess they're buying lower now, averaging down? Sure doesn't seem too smart to me.
Yuan is Mandarin for "volatile"...
Melt up or flash crash coming ... If no fc by 3 big up by 4
Graph is too low resolution to be readable. Useless!
Useless???
Try using the link to the article...
You, and most every Wall Street Trader, are useless.
You contribute no Goods or real services to any economy. You...well you...yes you...ARE A FUCKING PARASITE ON THE MISERY OF OTHER PEOPLE.
Then you go to sleep at night without ever being concerned about the damage that you do to others.
As a classical psychopath you lack a conscience or the capacity for any real care about others.
So another psychopath on this comment forum has been exposed.
There are just too many here.
Yeah Tom, fuck em against the wall with handcuffs on em and crazy glue on his lips
Two words:
MARGIN CALL
Two more words:
STRONGER DOLLAR
stronger dollar makes USA goods more expensive to buy. Oh wait, what goods?
Ummmm ... more motivated sellers than buyers? I think it was that double-nipple chart formation that did it. Who knew but me?
www.traderzoo.mobi
CNBS said that the sell off, despite the increased volume which suggest that this is legitimate trading for once", could be because of the Jewish holidaze season......
need i say more.
Sitting here looking for a job I just turned on the tee vee and all I saw flipping channels was cnbc and it looked like wheel of fortune but all red
Pat can I buy a Vowel
[moved]
On Harvard Endowment Earns 15.4% Return for Fiscal 2014:
Let's change some laws. Why? Because USA higher education has coexisted in substantial silence with the public being ignorant of these histories:
http://www.showrealhist.com/RHandRD.html
FIRST Of the total current endowment of all of USA higher education, 90% is immediately remitted to the U.S. Treasury ("the people"). (90% of total is specified, NOT necessarily 90% of each.)
SECOND All future endowment of USA higher education is cash only, and deposited in FDIC-insured USA bank accounts.
Black Friday ?
Get on it, Janet. Lotta shopping to do!
Janet and 90% of her fellow board members have the day off today.
Could this continue for a few days? Say into early next week? Or is "selling pressure" quickly alleviated. I know this is a naive question but I'm trying to make heads or tales of how this will play out in the next few days.
Or am I going to see everything green and up a hundred points on Monday?
same as the last four years
OH so it's just routine bank selling....gee who are they selling to? Joe Brokeass? Nah, something more to it than that.
Could be. Jupiter leaves the US's 8th House (debt-debt-debt) in mid-October for the next 12 years.
8th house is other people's money...not necessarily debt.
.
I just read Art Cashin on yahoo, talking about you guys, saying the market ist down due to astrologers.
It's all fake.
.
Traders buying "out of the money puts"... I need to go throw some cold water on my face to see if I'm still asleep.
I just gave myself a swirley in the executive washroom.... Nope we're awake.
rotflmao :-)
Is the selloff ever due to overvalued stocks?
Never ever...
Reasons :
- Announcements by CALPERS and another big pension fund that they are pulling out of Hedge Funds a few days ago. It took awhile for it to sink in.
- Situation with Russia perhaps freezing foreign assets in retaliation to sanctions.
- Russia maybe severely lowering Europe's energy supplies going into the heating season.
- America announcing that we are heading into a trillion+ $ conflict which we won't win.
- Apparent improved Russia/China relationship with threatens dollar reserve status and petrol dollar.
- Fed's comments (particularly by Fisher).
- Most importantly, Wall Street has decided that this stock market bubble is just about done. They got every party they could into the rigged market game. Now it's time to squeeze for the profits (You guys know how to profit from a market super-downturn. That's your specialty. I mean, you even got the long time bear holdouts to capitulate - congrats! You're all set).
- Set up perfectly! And if they get roughed up a bit or have their timing/plan backfire, they'll always be backed up by the Fed and Treasury. Along with our Congress.
How can there be less liquidity, since Jews make only 1% of the population? If the above was true, it would mean a huge overrepresentation in the financial sector and control of money. Isn't that called anti-semitic? OMG, I have an awful suspicion! Is the truth anti-semitic?
We need another massive sell order to make this a good day....
TPTB rip the stock prices down to buy cheap shares - the bigger the drop, the larger the discounts and amount of stock bought. Then levitate the stock prices back up (later today, tomorrow or by Monday) and sell the same stock shares back (possibly to the same parties stock was purchased from) at a nice profit.
Repeat, ad nauseum...
Cheap shares? Where?
Great Plan ... it's worked on almost all days where ES is down less that 10 pts
Seriously - why does the fact its a Jewish "holiday" [new years - do the Chinese get their NY off?] mean there's "very little liquidity".
I'm not being glib or coy - given the junks I got, I just want an answer.... come on junkers!
come out come out whereveryearrre...
Duffy, put your haggis down and think for a moment. Its not that complicated.
Little over an hour to go until the close - time for the hockey stick Janet
Sorry, she's in temple today. Have to wait until tomorrow.
"but I need that loan today Reardon before the markets open tommorow or......" Janet can use her hand-held to move some money for us.
This is the way Bernankism works.
Except for a handsomely funded petty cash account and loans to prime borrowers (if they can find them), at the end of the day every penny of the TBTF banks working capital goes into the S&P 500 (including rumor stocks floating around the floor of the NYSE).
This has produced great paper profits for the last 6 years, but 'man can not live on paper profits alone'.
So these banks, having been tipped by the Fed or Treasury, or Commerce ot Labor about some imminent bad news -- news which the banks had no problems eating up and spitting out before -- short the market for a couple of days, get hysterical and run around and with their hands up in the air, before they cover and continue on their merry way to DJIA 20,000.
They book the profits they made on the short side and all go out and have a $200 price fixe lunch.
Bernie Madoff to replace Janet Yellin .
"Proven track record" Govt spokesperson
The Big Jefe, investment mogul turned riverboat gambler, and everyone's favorite celebrity, Budgie Twitters, is going into the close, long $100,000 worth of October Calls on the NASDAQ.
He has ordered the 2015 Tesla and 2015 Corvette, and a 2016 Pagani (they are custom made and take a year or more for delivery).
Y'all might want at least hold your noses and put down some biscotti money or the Powerball lotto money you were going to bet for Saturday.
I have rolled my whole 401K into camera on a stick securities. So far I am doing well, at this rate I should be able to retire comfortably by next year.
What can I say, its a stock pickers market.
oOOOh. I really, really, worry about that concept. or are you kidding? oh, you are, aren't you. Darn. I take everything too seriously.
don't worry Janet has it contained.
Take the chance of 'strong dollar', load up commodity stocks before hyperinflation sets in.
Just get the real thing - commodities - even toilet paper over time is a good investment but is a little bulky to store.
Exactly. Go to local nurseries and get a load of heriloom seeds. Look at things like flour mills and whatnot. And lead. Think about how you would live if commerce just froze all of a sudden.
Think about all of the people who never saw it coming and how they'll react.
I hate heirloom tomatoes. Ugly things.
I cannot eat fresh ripe tomatoes. They make me sick, literally. Cooked, I can eat them, so I really don't have that problem.
Try Pruden's Purple tomatoes and Brandywines.
You aren't alone El V. I caught so much flack growing up because I refused to eat raw tomatoes. When forced to eat them, I got these nasty cold sores and weird rashes. Raw tomatoes don't taste "right" to me and they ruin any sandwich or sub afflicted with them. They look delicious, but I can't stand them. I love pasta sauces, ketchup, etc. but they are all processed so cooking must remove something my system objects to.
You might have an intolerance to tomatoes. You are probably type B+ blood. If so, don't eat them, even cooked.
The other day a neighbor dropped off a perfect, beautifully deep red Beef Steak (I'm pretty sure) and when I cut it open I knew then that there is a god, heaven and an afterlife.
She gave me one of those heirlooms last week and it made me sick just to look at it, all gnarled and multicolored, and I swear it tasted as bland as Zucchini. I think this is due to the cloning process, which, if
evolution has any cred at all, it's because of randomness of things it brings to reproduction and survival. Cloning may make sense in some things but look at what happens to politicians once they enter the Capitol dome for the first time.
Cloning is ultimately like having sex with an ugly sister. But if they want to clone Sofia, Brooklyn, Kate Upton a million times to give me a better shot at 'em, I'm good with that.
But that medical moment you wrote about i.e. Type B + and tomatoes combo I need to dig deeper in to.
Cooked tomatoes are a boon to any man with BPH.
Okay, I know i'm going to get in trouble over this; but I never said I was a botanist. What is an "heirloom tomato" ? It can't be something left over in your grandmothers closet; but what is it ?
An heirloom variety of anything is basically a stable plant that will reliably reproduce a similar product from its own seeds, or consistently breed true generation after generation. Hybrids, on the other hand, will produce a pretty good copy the first year and then there is no telling what you will end up with afterwards.
Heirlooms represent an independent ability to grow your own seeds, albeit at some cost in terms of yield and disease resistance. Hybrids grow fast, yield well, and leave you in thrall to the seed comapnies forever. Taste is another issue entirely.
Abe Lincolns did good this year, as did the San Marzanos, and the Yellow Pears. Mortgage Lifters were a little disappointing but I have a greenhouse and there is still time.
Here's Joel Skousen's take on the end game.
Great tips here plus a very different angle than most anticipate here.
His comments on Kissinger are very sobering.
Good time of year to buy seeds since they usually have to be sold by December of the model year or taken off the shelves. You can get them at a considerable discount over the spring price. On the other hand, selection is limited. Lumber yards are cheaper than nurseries.
For those who want to know where to start or if they even want to start taking out a little insurance against societal collapse-- put your wallet and car keys in the desk drawer on Friday afternoon, then flip the main breaker and go without electricity while staying home all weekend. Okay, one day. Okay, a couple of hours.
The first lesson you'll learn is that western civilization is well worth fighting for. The second lesson you'll learn is that the man who can provide electricity has an elevated level of sex appeal over the man who cannot.
I never owned any stocks in my life.
But I do know Janet Yellen is the appointed & annointed
Combination Fall guy, garden troll, Hobbit auntie and muppet puppet of the Fed. And the sheeple will blame her, deservedly or not.
There's some things you've never done and one of them is getting to know the FED and what it is all about.
She will deserve it just like Greenspan deserves being tarred, feathered, and whose parents should have considered and went through abortion when he was conceived.
Greenspan, Bernanke, J Yell What do they have in common that if their names were: Corleone, Pugliese, and DeNiro, would have the entire Jewish owned media screaming !bigotry! at the FED.
Yellen is Vader to Fischer's Emperor
If the stock market doesn't go down and the Fed doesn't reinstitute some form of money printing (openly) by the end of the year, we know they're doing something in secret.
If you're in NYC - it is dead around here. Probably tomorrow too. Maybe people will come back to work and start shitting their pants on Monday.
Oil prices aren't too bad, eh? I guess that's what happens when the bad guys are selling at a discount.
or something.
fucking - you know what, nothing makes sense anymore. maybe it never really did.
Jewish holiday? I guess there is no one at the Fed today to buy stawks.
Can I get some budda on my stawks?
What I think about Holder's comment on why he did not prosecute executives of big banks :
It could (read surely would) hurt the market and even start an international financial market crisis.
Straight from the HORSE's mouth : Too Big to Jail are safe with us in power !
Horse shit, from the horses mouth of the top horses ass of injustice.....
"Buy on Rosh Hashanah. Sell on on Yom Kippur."
It's paid off for over 5000 years
I don't think there were Jews 5,000 years ago. Egyptians and Canaanites, surely, but nobody blowing ram's horns, speaking Hebrew, and eating matzos.
Regardless - happy new year to many of my favorite comics and just about all of the executive producers of most of the tv shows I like! ;0p
If there weren't Jews 5000 years ago, there were proto-Jews or Hebrews then.
Tonight will begin the year 5775 of the Hebrew Calendar.
It's been a long ride and, frankly, I'm pooped. I'm going to spend the next 5700 years in a hot tub with a glass of white wine.
Happy new year to you PC.
The year number on the Jewish calendar represents the number of years since creation, calculated by adding up the ages of people in the Bible back to the time of creation. So it's basically a mythical starting point.
The oldest potentially Hebrew writing is about 3,000 years old - but there's a good chance it wasn't "Hebrew" per se but an earlier Canaanite language which Hebrew gradually emerged from:
http://www.haaretz.com/archaeology/1.567256
All in all, you can legitimately say 3,000 years - but not 5,000. 5,000 is reserved for Egypt, Sumer/Babylon/Persia, and China/Korea - to my knowledge.
Moses, David and Solomon probably never existed. There's zero evidence for any major Jewish Kingdom at he purported time of David, either - a petty chiefdom is certainly possible, but not a major kingdom in an area controlled by Egypt or other NE empires.
That's another very basic reason for why the exodus is a myth - at the time, Canaan was rife with Egyptian fortresses.... Moses, an Egyptian name, would not have been escaping "Egypt" by going into an area Egypt controlled.
This isn't a knock against Jews, by the way - it's a knock against how the bible and Jewish/Christian myth has come to be perceived as historical rather than mostly mythical. Books of the OT were written as much as 6 centuries after the time it was supposed to have taken place.
But there's no good reason at all to take theyear 5775 seriously at all. In fact, it is absurd to do so unless you think that humanity is less than 6000 years old.
By the way - the Celtic new year, Samhain, became Halloween [which became All Souls Day].
In Gaelic [Scottish and Irish Celts] terms -there are legendary accounts of ancient kings, too - but these books, recorded much, much later [the draoi/druids didn't want to write anything down even after ogham writing was developed in around 400 BCE] - they were never deemed "holy" books like the Bible came to be widely [really b/c of the Romans] and were in fact written down in the Christian era.
Point being - a great deal of Jewish history isn't historical at all. It stems from writings which are incorrectly regarded as historical documents. But all this aside, it should be obvious that a calendar developed 2500 years ago was, well, making shit up when dating back to purported events of 2500 years earlier...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebor_Gab%C3%A1la_%C3%89renn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_High_Kings_of_Ireland
p.s. Happy New Year anyway! I'll be celebrating the new year myself in a little over a month... although... much more seriously on Dec. 31!
New year is 21st/22nd December.
HTH
Over a thousand million people with a credit limit of $2 trillion would disagree.
They plan on getting crazy on the evening of Wednesday February 18, 2015
Try to make it. It's the real deal.
Hey; that's my birthday. When you finally have to start listening to the waters of Acquarius I pour out of my big jug; or something like that. Whoopie.
If you don't live in a West Coast city, you should go to one with a big Chinatown for your b'day.
You can spend Chinese New Years and your birthday having strings of small firecrackers tossed at your feet.
It's way fun!
I don't believe it. That's nothing but
KOSHER KREATIONISM
I want my money back.
Too bad the same can't be said about the the Obamster. Sigh.
So are you saying the The Assyrian never came down like the wolf on the fold, And his cohorts weren't gleaming in purple and gold?
This year is getting off to a bad start.
There's a Blood Moon Oct. 8. Check out their history.
Lunar eclipse.