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It's The Dollar, Stupid!
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Wyland Stanley Studebaker motor car in repair shop, San Francisco 1919
There are substantial and profound changes developing in the global economy, and in my view we should all pay attention, because everyone will be greatly affected. Some more than others, but still.
‘Metal markets’, be they gold, silver, copper or iron, exhibit distress and uncertainty, prices are falling, or at least seem to be. Partly, that is because of the apparently still ongoing investigation in the Chinese port of Qingdao, through which a $10 billion ‘currency fraud’ is reported today, ostensibly related to the double/triple borrowing that has been exposed, in which the same iron ore and copper shipments were used as collateral multiple times.
This could soon bring such shipments to the market and add to the oversupply already in place. Combined with ever more evidence of a slowdown in Chinese growth numbers, this doesn’t look good for iron, copper, aluminum.
But the Slow Boat To – or from – China is by no means the only reason metal prices are dropping. The main one is, plain and simple, the US dollar. Gold, for instance, hasn’t changed much at all when compared to a year ago, against the euro. Whereas it’s lost 8-9% against the dollar over the last 2-3 months, about the same percentage as that same euro. The movement is not – so much – in gold, it’s in the dollar.
To claim that this is the market at work makes no sense anymore. Today central banks, for all intents and purposes, are the market. As Tyler Durden makes clear once again for those who still hadn’t clued in:
Bank Of Japan Buys A Record Amount Of Equities In August
Having totally killed the Japanese government bond market, Shinzo Abe has – unlike the much less transparent Federal Reserve, who allegedly use their proxy Citadel – gone full tilt into buying Japanese stocks (via ETFs). In May, we noted the BoJ’s aggressive buying as the Nikkei dropped, and in June we pointed out the BoJ’s plan to buy Nikkei-400 ETFs and so, as Nikkei news reports, it is hardly surprising that the Bank of Japan bought a record JPY 123.6 billion worth of ETFs in August.
The market ‘knows’ that the BoJ tends to buy JPY 10-20 billion ETFs when stock prices fall in the morning. The BoJ now holds 1.5% of the entire Japanese equity market cap (or roughly JPY 480 trillion worth) and is set to surpass Nippon Life as the largest individual holder of Japanese stocks. And, since even record BoJ buying was not enough to do the job, Abe has now placed GPIF reform (i.e. legislating that Japan’s pension fund buys stocks in much greater size) as a primary goal for his administration. The farce is almost complete as the Japanese ponzi teeters on the brink.
Shinzo Abe wants the yen to fall, and he gets his (death)wish, because the Japanese economy and the financial situation of its government are in such bad shape, there’s nowhere else to go for the yen. That doesn’t spell nice things for the Japanese people, who will see prices for imported items (energy!) rise, but for all we know Abe sees that as a way to push up inflation. That’s not going to work, what we will push up instead is hardship. And that plan to force pension funds into stocks is just plain insane, an idea he got from US pension funds which are 50% in stocks – which is just as crazy.
Draghi talks down the euro, says a headline today, but I don’t see it; I wonder why that would be supposed to work now, and not in the preceding years, when it was just as obvious how poorly Europe was doing. Sure, there’s a new ‘threat’ in the AfD (Alternative for Germany), a right wing anti-euro party, but that’s not – for now – enough to cause the euro slide we’re seeing. The movement is not – so much – in the euro, it’s in the dollar.
Why the Fed moves the way it does, the moment it does, in its three pronged combo of fully tapering QE, hiking rates (or at least threatening to) and pushing up the greenback, is not immediately clear, but a few suggestions come to mind, some of which I mentioned earlier this month in The Fed Has A Big Surprise Waiting For You and in What Game Is Being Played With the US Dollar?.
My overall impression is that the Fed has given up on the US economy, in the sense that it realizes – and mind you, this may go back quite a while – that without constant and ongoing life-support, the economy is down for the count. And eternal life-support is not an option, even Keynesian economists understand that. Add to this that the -real – economy was never a Fed priority in the first place, but a side-issue, and it becomes easier to understand why Yellen et al choose to do what they do, and when.
When the full taper is finalized next month, and without rate rises and a higher dollar, the real US economy would start shining through, and what’s more important – for the Fed, Washington and Wall Street -, the big banks would start ‘suffering’ again. Just about all bets are on the same side of the trade today, and that’s bad news for Wall Street banks’ profits.
The higher dollar will bring some temporary relief for Americans, in lower prices at the pump, and for imported products in stores, for example. Higher rates, however, will put a ton and a half of pressure bearing down on everyone who’s in debt, and that’s most Americans. The idea is probably that by the time this becomes obvious and gets noticed, we’re far enough down the line that there’s no going back. Besides, we could be in full-scale war by then. One or two IS attacks in the west would do.
The higher dollar – certainly in combination with higher rates – will also mean a very precarious situation for the US government, which will have to pay a lot more in borrowing costs, but our leadership seems to think that at least in the short term, they can keep that under control. And then after that, the flood. Maybe the US can start borrowing in yuan, like the UK wants to do?
To reiterate: there is no accident or coincidence here, and neither is it the market reacting to anything. That’s not an option in this multiple choice, since there is no market left. It’s all central banks all the way (like the universe made up of turtles). It’s faith hope and charity, and the greatest of these is the Federal Reserve. Is they didn’t want a higher dollar, there would not be one. Ergo: they’re pushing it higher.
The Bank of England will follow in goose lockstep, while the ECB and Bank of Japan can’t. That’s earthquake and tsunami material. The biggest richest guys and galls will do fine wherever they live. The rest, not so much. Wherever they live . At the Automatic Earth, we’ve been telling you to get out of debt for years, and we reiterate that call today with more urgency. Other than that, it’s wait and see how many export-oriented US jobs will be lost to the surging buckaroo. And how a choice few nations in the northern hemisphere will make through the cold days of winter.
Whatever you do, don’t take this lightly. A major move is afoot.
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Annuit Coeptis
Novus Ordo Seclorum
The phrasing basically means with this you accept the undertakings of the people that control the issuance.
Tacit consent of the ruled through their use of the dollar. How quaint.
...No wonder the world "HATES" the USSA...
Led by Obama, the USSA MIC will gladly kill millions to protect its Petrodollar.
It's the stupidity, stupid.
Could you run that by me again?
So the USA has become the UK...
I'm not a historian or an Economist
But I remember going to Italy in the 1980s and getting all these Lira for our US Dollar.
You could compare going to France and Going to Italy... by the number of Francs or Lira you got.
... Seems to me there is a story there. Failing Italian Currency.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lira
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lira#Current_uses
Appears that Roman Empire or Italy used to have influence and that many people spoke of currency as Lira.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franc
Isn't the Yuan pegged to the dollar? What good does borrowing in a currency that is pegged to yours?
high dollar?
where?
compared to the 1930's, our dollar is worthless...
Strong Dollar=Weak PM prices=Acceleration in buying
I always asks this...
apart from Phys gold and silver ..
WHAT ARE YOU BUYING NOW ?
As an investment, nothing else right now. I'm holding cash and waiting to buy the lows in any market. I believe this is the low of the physical PM market.
ok.. but the closest i can come to phys is Sprott funds or miners , take ur pic.thanks in advance,
X.inf.capt
Yes since the 1930s, and even 1913 (losing 95% +), but...:
The dollar has been EXTREMELY high in the past three months, up 7% (the US Dollar Index, 7% is a huge move in three months) since early July. I just went and looked at a whole bunch of alternatives (gold, Bitcoin, cotton, crude oil). Those four (and of course other commodities) are down as the US$ has gone up.
Yet, I found no strong POSITIVE correlations, there was a weak correlation between stock prices and the US$, and a VERY WEAK correlation (almost nothing) with the 10-Year Bonds... Weird!
"King Dollar?"
http://goo.gl/2GmeMi
King Dollar? Really?! More like "King Rat", I think. ;)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Rat_%28Clavell_novel%29
Move in dollar caused by reverse repos sucking dollars out, Fed gets a stronger dollar without collapse causing rise in interest rates.
Smart..
Running out of good collateral.
Can you spare me $10bn for a condom wrapper mister.
Rates are not going anywhere... well maybe down.
Rates have been rising next year for 6 years now.
Rates are not going anywhere... well maybe down
absolutley!
how do we get lower rates if the FED stops the air money?: MyRA! As soon as this market loses 50 - 60% the GOV will step in as a savior for "folks" wanting to save for retirement. Unfortunately just like SSI it will be mandatory! probably 3-5% to start with 25% of the nest egg apprioated to MyRA. No shortage of buyer for that debt, no rise in rates on debt - China will become the receiver of that money as it's debt comes due. The debt rollover game is over since there is no demand for the debt at low interest rates and higher interest rates mean trouble. The sheeple again will be fleeced. It's the Japanese model in reverse. Wait until folks see when the factories come back and they use the CHINA MODEL........ Dorms will not just be for college anymore.
It's even simpler than that:
When equities tank, the money will flow into bonds; ergo, lower yields.
After all, wouldn't you rather earn 1.5% on a 10-year bond than lose 50% in your stock portfolio?
http://edwardmd.wordpress.com/tag/real-meaning-annuit-coeptis-novus-ordo...
Stack on
What is this 'economy' of which you speak??
The totally corrupt system we suffer under??
Shit needs to get done.
There are plenty of people around with the skills to get the aforementioned 'shit' done.
That's the real economy
Problem is the parasites in the middle..... There's a lot of them already and the numbers seem to be increasing.
Oh, yeah, they also run the place now.
enter the blockchain. There's no middlemen and it's a transparent system.
As long as it wasnt created by man.
If it was..it can be manipulated.
The question of whether mathematical relationships were "created by man" or exist naturally has never been resolved.
Whatever you do, don’t take this lightly. A major move is afoot.
Too vague.
Record long USD and short Euro positions for the "dumb" money. Something is going to snap and soon.
I love when you talk like that Fielding.
i think you have it the other way around.
We be runnin' outta French Fries an' burrito coverings an' shit.
Listen. Let me be clear. The "FREQUENCY" at which these ZH stories are being published is "TOO DAM HIGH"!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
High frequency publishing is not good, must be banned.
I just don't know how Tyler even finds the time to go to the bathroom. It seems like he is cranking out a article every five minutes.
No it's the speculators...speculative publishing should be stopped!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brace_position
An American, not US subject.
Stanley Fischer was named #2 at the Fed this year.
Fischer has earned plaudits across the board for his handling of the Israeli economy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In September 2009, the Bank of Israel was the first bank in the developed world to raise its interest rates.[15]
They forgot to add : Without collapsing the TASE.
So its up, up, and away, grasshoppers.
So PM price moves down are actually the dollar. OK. Actually they haven't moved. OK.
Then what?
Then what? Global angry blowback kills the dollar, crack up boom-style.
Well maybe, but it doesn't follow from the charts. I keep expecting the dollar to crack up for this reason or that reason but all I know is that so far it hasn't. Still if you believe that I guess you want to buy a bunch of PM while they're cheap.
Paper pm's are tied to the dollar. All that matters is that you have physical, the physical markets will have to up the price in order to get more physical supplies, which means an end to the paper markets.
Silver Is Getting Scarce In Shanghaihttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2477575-silver-is-getting-scarce-in-shan...
ok same question ...
plan b ?
the dxy will test 90 soon, au will be going down further.
Strong Dollar on the back of WHAT? Higher interest rates on 18 trillion? Author calls for parity with the Euro which would be 20% plus from here. Depreciate the USD basket except for the pound and yes the USD will be the mirror opposite but that does not mean strength. The author says it is about blowing up complacent interest rate derivatives for profit. Which I am sure they are complacent, whenviewing 18 trillion in debt. Dollar rampage I just dont get it. Unless they intend to let Gold rise also.
So far I haven't seen a rate rise and am told it will be a Considerable time. No doubt a stronger dollar by DEFAULT will buy more goodies, food, gas etc before the elections.
no major changes are afoot. the same criminal maggots will still be in charge tomorrow. there will be moar. ssdd.
Paper accepts anything printed up shit.
Bits and Baites too, is a matter of 0001 or 1000.
Today the guys are having fun with paper and bits.
People who have never picked up a pick or hoe to take ore to plant dictates the price.
Dictates the price of the sweat of others.
Complete insanity.
: - /
The collapse of the pacific rim industries for one reason or anouther is something afoot. Rate hikes or not, the likeliness of disastrous wealth destruction of all forms is glaring.
Sounds like the Movie "Pacific Rim"... has the pacific rim industries actually collapsed? I missed that. Guess I have to do a web search.
Help!
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1223928
Stagnation seems to be the goal .
With Japa , EU and US in stagnation , that leaves only Russia and China .
And they have long histories of stagnation and elite domination .
It seems that the New World Order has won .
Stagnation is a favourite way whereby the elite propagates the imbalance between wealth and money necessary for their existence.
Get on top , stay on top by freezing everything .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/09/drowning-in-gold.html
"Get out of debt"?
How?
Cancel that new car purchase, forget the winter in Palm Springs, you really don't need that pool, lay off the illegal leaf blower, get re-acquainted with mac and cheese, take on a job, - etc get the drift.
I already gave up all that stuff, I suppose I could try not eating.
If you stuck to your strategy, you would have saved yourself about 20 bucks by now
Bankruptcy!......It is better than being enslaved for life by the banksters and their evil puppet politicians. Life is short. Get on with it. Get smart and throw your ego in the trash.
Wasn't easy, but we did. Cut the spending, credit cards. Offed the McMansion - paid off the car. Now live in the woods with acreage, on a dirt road in a small "manufactured" house. No debt. Now stockpiling wood for the winter. Next up...getting a garden to supplement our groceries.
So if interest rates go up, commercial and residential real estate prices will come down significantly. As a result, the collateral backing all the loans goes down and the banks are in trouble again not to mention borrowing costs for the USG will again cause increased deficit spending just to cover the debt. Interest rate derivatives will implode. This could all happen but no matter what there is not a happy ending.
I don't know about that. There's really no correlation between interest rates and home prices. If there is, there are plenty of examples to the contrary.
In my area commercial and residential real estate prices are not going down. There is a disconnect between what I'm reading on ZH, and what I'm seeing.
It depends on what you are using for an example. The way the data is presented is often skewed. I'd like to see a simple chart: The average price of homes (by age of home) when sold, over the last 15 years. And make sure the chart writers are using the actual closing price, not listing price or "market value". In areas where the prices are still rising, those are micro-economic pockets that can sustain those prices. Where I live was not affected much during the last big crash. But that doesn't help people in the hard hit areas, they still have not come back.
Embrace the $USD rally people.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/25/so-what-was-the-ecm-september-2...
Right!!!!???!!! Horde expensive toilet paper. Use it by the ton to buy bread.
Nah, that's still $1.67
With central banks we face a contradiction. They are government institutions, despite any claims to the contrary. Governments are not capable of making economic decisions. They make political decisions, so there is always a political outcome to anything a central bank does.
Even critics of the Fed seem to think central banks are humble dumplings, basically honest but misguided. Open Market Committee members know exactly what they are doing to the country.
Common Sense Economics http://quillian.net/blog/
if we let them fail who is going to implement the socialist dream? who is going to pick the winners and losers? if the tbtf's fail who will commit the fraud the govt needs to keep the debt wheel going? where's andrew jackson when you need him?
Andrew Jackson?......has wrapped his remains in body armor lest the banksters dig him up and try to murder him again, and again, and again.......When bankster Joos get desperate, all humans are endangered.......except, of course, the brethren elect.
We'll all be gathered in social groups learning new and exciting skills. How to sharpen your stone hatchet. Learning how to make your own cloth from natural fiber. Etc.
Ancestor-worship will be out though, at least for a few generations.
Na I don't believe any of it - I think it will be a slow agonizing death as the currency brokers kick this can down road for years. The only casualties will be the tax payers.
So what we know as a FACT is that dollar strength means SLOWER growth.
While I'm sure many folks are only now debating the cause of the biggest move in the Bucky since the 1973 bankruptcy and default the implications are crystal clear: it makes repaying of debt almost impossible without a huge shot economic recovery.
There is no way I would want to be anywhere near a Republicratic State solution right now. They both only believe in Debtocracy...not Democracy (let alone rule of law.)
If the Bucky starts to move like its 1983 you'll defaults like you've never seen folks. Bottom line is unlike 1983 INTEREST RATES CAN ONLY GO UP FROM HERE.
Very interesting how refinery complexes are now shutting down in the USA "for maintenance." Is it for lack of supply of oil?
Bwhahahahahahaha. Obviously not. Yet these energy supplies will continue to back up...and if prices really start to correct (downward)...well, lest just say the USA isn't the most inviting country in the world right now with all the crazy border folks.
High tax no hope for growth ever jurisdiction? Bwhahahahaha. Good like paying for that pension.
And the parabolic growth in all electric vehicles says to me "I can see a minus ten percent print in US growth."
Avoid debt at all costs folks.
Banks are going to get annihilated....and so will the States that have followed them to their doom.
Detroit? Just a warm up it would appear...
Can you put this into bullets and expand a little.
Anyone?
I've been drinking, but I don't think it is just me that would have questions here.
- Interest on Treasury Borrowing has basically flat lined at $400 Billion
- I can't conceive of an Interest Rate Hike that goes to the level of $1 Trillion a Year payment on Treasury Interest
- In the US Every thing is Politics, this is true for the Interest Rate on Treasury Borrowing
- Tax, Corporate Tax Base seems to be Shrinking, Inverted whatever, Off Shore Incorporation, Off Shore Production, Check Corporate Tax on Treasury Report and you see Individual Tax Revenues have Recovered since 2008 but not Corporate Tax Revenues
-----
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 1998 = $ 188.7 Billion
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2002 = $ 148.0 Billion (Recession)
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2006 = $ 353.9 Billion
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2007 = $ 370.2 Billion
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2008 = $ 304.3 Billion
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2009 = $ 138.2 Billion (Recession)
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2012 = $ 242.3 Billion
Corporate Income Taxes Receipts 2013 = $ 273.5 Billion
------
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 1998 = $ 828.6 Billion
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2002 = $ 858.3 Billion (Recession)
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2006 = $1.044 Trillion
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2007 = $1.163 Trillion
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2008 = $1.146 Trillion
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2009 = $ .915.3 Trillion (Recession)
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2012 = $1.132 Trillion
Individual Income Taxes Receipts 2013 = $1.316 Trillion
------
Oh, You didn't hear about:
- Erosion of Corporate Tax Revenue on CNN, Fox, CNBC, MSNBC, USATODAY, ABC, CBS, WSJ, Bloomberg, Drudgereport, CSPAN, NPR, PRI, Reuters, AP
- I Submit that Interest Rates can never go up to 5% since that would mean Political Crisis for Federal Government
- But there are many friends who hold US Long Term Treasuries, who are looking for a pay off
Little to show federal budget help in job formation, but this:
2013 federal Outlays Training & Employment Services = $3.48 Billion (Decreased)
2013 federal Outlays Office of Job Corps = $1.58 Billion
1999 federal Outlays Training & Employment Services = $4.68 Billion
1999 federal Outlays Training & Employment services = (maybe $267 Million as welfare to work)
----
30 September 2013, Final Monthly Treasury Statement, Outlays and Revenues, Table 5.
Total—Department of Agriculture Outlays 2013 = $181.7 Billion
Total—Department of Agriculture Outlays 2000 = $94.6 Billion
Total—Department of Agriculture Outlays 1998 = $71.5 Billion
------
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 2013 = $609.4 Billion (Down from $650 B)
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 2000 = $283 Billion
Total—Department of Defense—Military Outlays 1998 = $257.9 Billion
-----
----
Total--Department of Education Outlays 2013 = $89.5 Billion
Total--Department of Education Outlays 2000 = $33.4 Billion
Total--Department of Education Outlays 1998 = $30.6 Billion
-----
Total--Department of Energy Outlays 2013 = $31 Billion
Total--Department of Energy Outlays 2000 = $18.8 Billion
Total--Department of Energy Outlays 1998 = 17 Billion
-----
Total—Department of Health and Human Services Outlays 2013 = $980.9 Billion
Total—Department of Health and Human Services Outlays 2000 = $405.5 Billion
Total—Department of Health and Human Services Outlays 1998 = $372.4 Billion
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Total--Department of Homeland Security Outlays 2013 = $66.5 Billion
Total--Department of Homeland Security Outlays 2000 (FEMA) = $3.9 Billion
Total--Department of Homeland Security Outlays 1998 (FEMA) = $2.9 Billion
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Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 2013 = $59 Billion
Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 2000 = $42.5 Billion
Total—Department of Housing and Urban Development Outlays 1998 = $51.7 Billion
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 2013 = $48 Billion
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 2000 = $25.7 Billion
Total—International Assistance Program Outlays 1998 = $26 Billion
Total--Department of Labor Outlays 2013 = $88.5 Billion (What?)
Total--Department of Labor Outlays 2000 = $33.8 Billion
Total--Department of Labor Outlays 1998 = 32.3 Billion
-----
DOL Unemployment Trust: Federal-State Unemployment: State Benefits, Outlays 2013 = $66.9 Billion
DOL Unemployment Trust: Federal-State Unemployment: State Benefits, Outlays 2000 = $20.6 Billion
DOL Unemployment Trust: Federal-State Unemployment: State Benefits, Outlays 1998 = $19.9 Billion
-----
Total--Office of Personnel Management Outlays 2013 = $133.7 Billion (What?)
Total--Office of Personnel Management Outlays 2000 = $71.8 Billion
Total--Office of Personnel Management Outlays 1998 = $66 Billion
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OPM, Employees and Retired Employees Health Benefits Fund Outlays 2013 = $43.9 Billion (?More than Double?)
OPM, Employees and Retired Employees Health Benefits Fund Outlays 2000 = $19.7 Billion
OPM, Employees and Retired Employees Health Benefits Fund Outlays 1998 = $17 Billion
-----
OPM, Civil service retirement and disability fund Outlays 2013 = $77.4 Billion (Expanded Employment & Retirement??)
OPM, Civil service retirement and disability fund Outlays 2000 = $45.2 Billion
OPM, Civil service retirement and disability fund Outlays 1998 = $43 Billion
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OPM, Government Payment for Annuitants, Employees Health & Life Insurance Benefits, Outlays 2013 = $11 Billion (?Double?)
OPM, Government Payment for Annuitants, Employees Health & Life Insurance Benefits, Outlays 2000 = $5 Billion
OPM, Government Payment for Annuitants, Employees Health & Life Insurance Benefits, Outlays 1998 = $4.1 Billion
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Total--Social Security Administration Outlays 2013 = $870.3 Billion
Total--Social Security Administration Outlays 2000 = $443.4 Billion
Total--Social Security Administration Outlays 1998 = $409.6 Billion
Total—Department of the Treasury Outlays 2013 = $550.1 Billion (IRS Surge in spending)
Total—Department of the Treasury Outlays 2000 = $409 Billion
Total—Department of the Treasury Outlays 1998 = $401.7 Billion
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Total--Interest on the Public Debt, under Treasury, 2013 = $415.7 Billion
Total--Interest on the Public Debt, under Treasury, 2000 = $362.1 Billion
Total--Interest on the Public Debt, under Treasury, 1998 = $363.8 Billion
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Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 2013 = $76.9 Billion
Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 2000 = $46.5 Billion
Total—Department of Transportation Outlays 1998 = $40 Billion
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Total—Department of Veterans Affairs Outlays 2013 = $143.6 Billion
Total—Department of Veterans Affairs Outlays 2000 = $50.1 Billion
Total—Department of Veterans Affairs Outlays 1998 = $45.6 Billion
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Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2013 = $65.8 Billion (what is happening here)
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2011 = $38 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2009 = $32.7 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2007 = $19.4 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2005 = $20.9 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2003 = $13.9 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2001 = $11.3 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 2000 = $8.3 Billion
Total--Tennessee Valley Authority Outlays 1998 = 9 Billion
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Total--Military Personnel Outlays under DOD 2013 = $150.8 Billion
Total--Military Personnel Outlays under DOD 2000 = $75.9 Billion
Total--Military Personnel Outlays under DOD 1998 = $68.9 Billion
Total--Operation and Maintenance under DOD 2013 = $259.7 Billion (Obviously not enough money to fix everything)
Total--Operation and Maintenance under DOD 2000 = $105.9 Billion (Before the wars)
Total--Operation and Maintenance under DOD 1998 = $92.8 Billion
Total—Procurement under DOD 2013 = $114.9 Billion
Total—Procurement under DOD 2000 = $51.6 Billion
Total—Procurement under DOD 1998 = $48.2 Billion
Total—Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation under DOD 2013 = $66.9 Billion
Total—Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation under DOD 2000 = $37.6 Billion
Total—Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation under DOD 1998 = $37.4 Billion
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IRS, Total Outlays—Internal Revenue Service, under Treasury, 2013 = $103.3 Billion (Boom)
IRS, Total Outlays—Internal Revenue Service, under Treasury, 2000 = $38 Billion
IRS, Total Outlays—Internal Revenue Service, under Treasury, 1998 = $33.2 Billion (??? What? For what??)
------
IRS, Payment where earned income credit exceeds liability for tax Outlays 2013 = $57.5 Billion (?What?)
IRS, Payment where earned income credit exceeds liability for tax Outlays 2000 = $26 Billion
IRS, Payment where earned income credit exceeds liability for tax Outlays 1998 = $23.2 Billion
----
IRS, Payment Where Child Tax Credit Exceeds Liability for Tax Outlays 2013 = $21.6 Billion (?What?)
IRS, Payment Where Child Tax Credit Exceeds Liability for Tax Outlays 2000 = $806 Million (Million)
IRS, Payment Where Child Tax Credit Exceeds Liability for Tax Outlays 1998 = Zero.....
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Do you really expect anyone to read their way through, and make any sense out of all of that data?
he was drinking,, cut and paste. and neither understands.
Well, actually, if you just glance at the data, each category is trending upward, meaning that they continue to spend and have increasing liabilities and are trying to load all that into a boat that's already sinking. Continue to defend your 2nd Amendment rights, you'll be needing them.
I've been calling this one for awhile now - from five months ago to just yesterday. There is no choice now but to let the dollar strengthen, in spite of what that will do to interest rates. Further weakening would totally snap the credit channel. We've already pulled forward all the demand for the foreseeable future and then some, so there is literally nothing left to borrow for. In a perfectly laissez-faire world the United States would have to start retiring its debt in order to balance its budget and the yield on the 10-year would explode up to 30%. We won't see that degree of sanity take hold yet; the forces of deflation are nowhere near strong enough to gain a majority in parliament, but from this point forward they will at least have a few delegates at the table.
Which amounts to less consumer spending - deflation in the upper income brackets and continuing inflation for the rest of us.
The only way out is to cancel all debt, nationalise the banks as they fail, nationalise the central banks and return the right to issue money to the public and link its issue to productivity rather than nothing or to PM. From the position nations can create the capital they need for infrastrucure projects and make that money interest free. History has shown that through this approach you can almost over night move to full employment, free education, no income tax and only need people to work 14 weeks a year.
I think they tried this approach in Russia and China - didn't work out so well because free begets lazy.
What you are describing is Communism, not public banking. Public banking has worked effectively in pretty much every case. In the US the Bank of North Dakota is a public bank and is the reason this area is doing so well. It was first introduced in the US by Lincoln through greenbacks and turned the US from a bankrupt colony into the most powerful economy on earth in 4 years. Do some homework please.
Give'ya one fresh Zucchini, for one American Silver Quarter.
Yes, twenty-five cents.
Cheap!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrBfPUu_gHs&list=UUB1o7_gbFp2PLsamWxFenBg
Starve the beast. Keep your money in the local economy. Support family owned businesses, mom and pop shops and small entrepreneurs. Withdraw from large multinationals as much as possible.
Local economy /mom&pop places needs to come down in price.
In the UK, the best indicator of higher interest rates coming in the medium term is that banks are currently "reducing" their existing rates on deposits. This means that when rates begin to rise, banks can increase rates to savers to deceive them into believing that deposit rates are being driven upwards following a rise in BoE Base Rates. This will help them to avoid criticism for not always increasing deposit rates when Base Rates rise.
In reality, the new deposit rates will be no higher that what they were before they reduced them in preparation for the next scene of this ongoing theatrical farce.
Result: borrowers will pay more, savers will get no more. Bank profits increase.
Free beer tomorrow. @homebody
"Free begets lazy"? I'll believe that when I see it. The line at the Apple Store is free. Annie singing "Tomorrow... tomorrow ... " is free or at least 99c on ITunes, which is nearly free. Unemployment compensation is free when the dollar strengthens. Eric Holder is free, Jon Corzine is free.
Whoever said "you can't taper a ponzi" failed to understand that you can always taper a ponzi tomorrow. The "I will gladly pay you double on Tuesday for a hamburger today" is passe'. There's always tomorrow. Drink up. On today's menu we have Kool Aid.
Duh! Of course the real economy is "down for the count" without Konstant Keynesianism. It has been that way for decades (with brief intervals of exception) but especially since Bush 43 announced that the "Era of Big Government is Over" was, well, "over" by signing Sarbanes Oxley, creating the Department of Homeland Security and instituting the (interminable) war on terror, followed by (black) Bush 44, who added Dodd Frank, Obamacare and the ("you didn't build that") war on entrepreneurs.
Actually, I think that it was Slick Willie-Bush 42, the slime between CIA-Bush 41 and Medicare-Part-D-Bush 43 that claimed the era of big government was over. Clearly he lied, as did the other presidents mentioned.
41: Read my lips, no new taxes.
43: Mission accomplished.
That assessment, of course, requires a very loose definition of what a lie is.
But how about the real reason for US dollar increase lately.
The US dollar increase is dropping oil prices which is an unpublished sanction against Russia.
Low oil prices will be quite an impact on Russia's current economy.
The reason is winter's coming and Ukraine gas cutoff will be quite bad.
Russia is selling oil in Euros, Rubles, Yuan etc. Not dollars.
css1971 Not True.
Although Russia would like that. It accepts payment in USD.
One recent article on this http://tinyurl.com/o92wu8h
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are
putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." Mark Twain
.
"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and
then beat you with experience." m.t.
I doubt if they will raise rates significantly because they simply can't. the debt would become even more unpayable as it allready is. Yeah, sure they will raise it a few bases points to give it the suggestion but that will be all. The same as we see in the 10-Year Yield btw. It goes up a little but get smashed down ver quickly.
Dudley Opens New Front for Fed Doves With Dollar Warning http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-09-24/dudley-opens-new-front-fo...
Fed's Lockhart says weak demand puts rate hike timetable in doubt http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-usa-fed-lockhart-guidance-i...
Konstant Kardashian Keynesian Kunt Knowledge Konundrum.
I didn't build that.
Really, I didn't.
It used to be the dollar, but as anyone who has remained sentient during the last ten years knows, there two other far better measures:
1) How far will anyone walk to pick up a dollar bill? A block? Two N Y city blocks? Few people will walk 100 yards to do so.
And
2) men's facial hair
In case you haven't noticed, the proliferation of men's facial hair in all its infinite variety from `1 sq in soul patches, to full length Cat Stevens beards and every conceivable type in between, many taking ten times longer to manicure than shaving would.
WHY?
What can be the only possible explanation for men reverrting to scuzzballs? It cannot be for their women who think these hirsute faces are comfortable to kiss. It can't be time saved. The only other time men decided to make a fashion statement with their facial follicles was during the last major depression. The artificial one that happened in two weeks in 2007 is an outlier that didn't so much signal a depression as a failure of bankster nerve.
Mark it down.
These two are harbingers of far leaner times ahead.
The Shorts may finally get their year to make big money if the Short seller isn't forbidden to execute by the Government.
Keep an eye on those men around you who are allowing their beards to grow. They are telling you something that can realize great profits.
I have come to believe that the smallest unit of the economy is indicative of the whole. Yesterday I went to a small local bank near me to do the last step in closing my small business - close the checking. I had done great in sales until 2008 when the bottom fell out. I tried in vain a number of times to resurrect sales but this year the hand writing was on wall so I shutdown it down.
While I sat watching the assistant branch manger do her final audit for closing my account I asked “…so how are doing with business banking these days. You seem to be prosperous…” She looked up with a slight smile and said “…it could be better. Yours is the forth business account I have closed this month…” And like I said this is a small bank…
talk about a harbinger..but anyone with an iota of common sense can see this as well (the decline)
go long /es !!
"Our overall impression is that the Fed has given up on the US economy, in the sense that it realizes – and mind you, this may go back quite a while - that without constant and ongoing life-support, the economy is down for the count. And eternal life-support is not an option, even Keynesian economists understand that."
Except Paul Krugman.
For anyone who has read the 'Automatic Earth' (Nicole Foss) since 2008, would know that they hold a ~Highly~ Deflationary bias... In short, a deflationary reset ($DX '100') is politically (and fiscally) untenable at this late stage of the 'disease'. It simply will not be allowed to happen due to the obvious socio-political ramifications. One would have thought people as smart as Foss would have recognized this by now, but it seems even they have been bamboozled by the clever machinations of psychological chicanery (M.O.P.E.) by the Fed.
Let's see this inflation then. I think inflation has peaked and now prices will go down. There is nothing "legal" they can do about it.
Know
http://www.showrealhist.com/begun.gif
Every now and then a very notable and important event occurs, sometimes it slips by without even being noticed. For months the major world currencies have traded in a narrow range as if held in limbo by some great force. This has allowed people to think we were on sound footing as central banks across the world continued to print and pump out money chasing the "ever elusive growth" that always appears to be just around the corner. Recently some currencies have made multi-year highs.
Weak demand for goods and most of this money flowing into intangible investments inflation has not been a major problem, but the seeds for its future growth have been planted everywhere. John Maynard Keynes said By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are a slew of Currency Vigilantes and they are ready to make their presence known. Weakness in the value of the Yen, Pound, and Euro must not go unnoticed. More on why this may be a signal that currency trading is about to get very wild in the article below. Please note, this may also be sending a signal that the whole system is unstable and the stock market is about to drop like a stone.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/caution-alert-currencies-may-get-wild.html
The dollar is a great trade right now! especially when you use leverage. I trade dollars at markets.com