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The Bells Are Ringing… Are You Listening?
There is a saying that you don’t ring bells at the top.
It’s not really true. Every time the market forms a major peak, at least in the last 15 years, there are usually a preponderance of signs of excessive speculation and leverage.
Today we are seeing bells ringing throughout the markets.
For instance, today, we have:
1) Corporate debt is at 2007 peak levels.
2) Investor bullishness is at extremes not seen since the 2007 top.
3) Margin debt (money borrowed to buy stocks) is closing in on its record high.
4) Over 70% of household net worth is based in financial assets. As ZH has noted previously, every time this has happened historically, asset prices have crashed soon after.
5) The Bank of International Settlements and the IMF have both warned of excessive risk taking and market fragility.
6) Market volume is at an absolute trickle, with most volume coming from HFT firms.
Aside from this, we have countless examples of the “smart money” preparing:
1) Billionaires are sitting on record amounts of cash.
2) Warren Buffett is sitting on over $50 billion in cash.
3) George Soros has taken out a record put position to profit from a market collapse.
4) Carl Icahn has warned of a “big drop” coming in stocks.
5) Jeremy Grantham has commented that we are in a “fully-fledged equity bubble.”
6) Corporate insiders are selling stock at a pace not seen since 2000.
7) Financial institutions as well as hedge funds have been net sellers of stocks since 2014 began.
There are literally bells everywhere today. Does this mean that the market will take a nosedive this week? Not necessarily. Tops can take much longer to form that anyone expects.
However, there are clear signs of excessive speculation, leverage, and the like. And the smart money is heading for the exits.
Are you?
This concludes this article. If you’re looking for the means of protecting yourself from what’s coming, you can pick up a FREE investment report titled Protect Your Portfolio at http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html.
This report outlines a number of strategies you can implement to prepare yourself and your loved ones from the coming market carnage.
Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
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They say you can't time the market...but I wouldn't be throwing my money at it right now. My hedging strategy is land...in another country.
The bigger question is since the market and all data points are obviously rigged, when will the house benefit from a fall? Normally I watch for when all the chips are on the table. I'm sure that's why the dollar has been inexplicably strong despite quickly losing reserve currency status--every day trader years ago said that losing reserve would be "the death of the dollar." Betcha a lot of chips were on the table for the house to sweep up betting against the dollar.
Assume it's all rigged...then put yourself in the shoes of somebody who has all this power, but who also still likes to play the game of owning everything. I say granny's pension is safe until after the elections...
I'm on the Titanic, looking for a door to rip off its hinges or something.
Crash can't come until after Nov 4 elections... the incumbent Republicrats must be reelected... that can't happen in the middle of a market meltdown. Disclaimer: short everything post Nov 4.
Through all of the cycle crashes the big international banks survive and even thrive, gaining more and more control over the world's assets.
One would think that they would be hit hardest ... but no, the little guy is hit hardest.
It appears to this long time novice trader,
that (manipulated) markets just tend to attempt to shake out those that are not insiders...
Then the old Wash & Repeat Cycle carries on..
Been down that road many times..
Hopefully hindsight is still 20/20..
There's no such thing as an inside trader; and if there were it would mean nothing to you. T he market is not manipulated in the sense you imply; and if it were it would make no difference to you. these are called weak excuses for failure. buy low-sell high. do not ever follow trends. when you buy; everyone will stand in line to bitch and whine at you for being a fool. When you sell, everyone will stand in line to bitch and whine at you for being a fool. What excuse do you have for not being short now? you either know how to trade or you don't; don't try to blame it on the market; the market makes traders money every year; year after year after year. but they don't act on the opinions voted on on internet blogs.
I think I saw some squid parts on the road today... not sure, could have been a skunk.
Were they hairy?
Why would i sell my stocks now when I can just sell them in a year or so at the top?
I'm looking for your sarcasm mark; but I don't see it. you are joking, right?
I'm in an energy equities bear trap. I ain't goin nowhere fast. :(
There were bells on the hills
but I never heard them ringing,
No I never heard them at all
'Till there was you.
Sooo..................WWWBD hhhmmm..........force gold and silver down at the right moment buy 50 billion in metals and create new asset bubble.
dollar turns to shit buy yuans new reserve currency with your gold inflate the yuan wash rinse repeat?
just "blue skying" but is it even possible?
gotta bounce!
Have we been lulled into complacency by the extraordinary actions taken by central banks and governments over the last six years? This is a key question we must face. Have these actions really worked or merely masked over major flaws and problems? And just for fun, consider that by not demanding the right kind of growth and by throwing money at problems we have only delayed and added to festering issues that face us in the future.
Modern Monetary Theory often referred to as MMT to its many believers removes much of the risk ahead and guarantees that we will always be able to muddle forward. MMT also known as neochartalism is a economic theory that details the procedures and consequences of using government-issued tokens and our current units of fiat money. Newly acquired tools like derivatives and currency swaps are suppose to allow us to print and manipulate away problems. What I'm seeing develop is an "almost surreal" feeling of indifference towards reality. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/01/have-we-been-lulled-into-complace...
Do we use rhetorical questions, the answers to which are obvious, too often as a literary device? Does writing like this get old?
Do we spam the comment sections of ZH on every single article even remotely related to our blog posts, in desperate attempts at over-promoting our blogs? Can we be more selective in which articles to post links to our own blogs on?
THESE are the questions we must ask ourselves.
Why worry about it? Some of us read most of them, costs nothing extra.
I'm just here for the comments...
I see what you did there. +1
2) Warren Buffett is sitting on over $50 billion in cash.
Does Warren really have 50B in "cash". Like greenbacks or are they digits on a computer screen?
It's only like 25 flatbeds worth of $100 Federal Reserve Notes. I'm sure they follow him wherever he goes. http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html
Warren has nothing compared to Scrooge McDuck's money bin overlooking DuckBerg. He keeps in shape by taking laps in the piles of cash and gold coins, spitting them out like water.
This time IT IS different! The bubble has 50% more room to grow......
love the Phonenix !!!
You Rock Graham !!
Another buy precios metals article. Yup buy now before the sky falls
Euro bank branches closing because people are "too cheap" to make deposits. ZIRP induced black swan?
http://tyronetribulations.com/2014/09/12/coalisland-bank-to-close-alledg...
The mattress is a safer place than the banks since the Eurozone has demonstrated the ability to drain bank accounts but its for the peoples own good don'cha know....
Euros under the mattress not such a good bet either.
Pfft. Europe won the Ryder Cup. What possibly could go wrong?
Likely not in the long run but when they can raid your account and call it a tax then not let you withdraw what's left, mattress savings look pretty good.