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"America's Demographic Situation Is A Ticking Time Bomb"
Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity,
When America's social security, health care, and entitlement systems were first conceived, the country had a very different age distribution. There were roughly 7 active workers per retiree, and the ability to transfer some of that employee wealth to support older citizens was supportable.
But with the arrival on the scene of the Baby Boom as well as advances in longetivity, the math changed dramatically. By 2005, there were only 5 workers per retiree. And by 2030, just 15 short years away, there will be less than 3.
Our national demographic architecture no longer can afford the entitlement system we have. And that's even assuming entitlements were currently sufficiently funded. But as the last chapter showed, the existing programs are underfunded to the tune of $100-200 Trillion.
America's demographic situation is a ticking time bomb. The older generation is already competing more fiercely than ever with younger ones in the job market, as many seniors can't afford to retire. Youth also has to contend with trends like automation, outsourcing, and high unemployment/underemployment, which further handicap their ability to build capital and, importantly, to afford all the assets (stocks, houses, etc) that the Boomers are counting on selling to them.
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Coming next Friday: Chapter 16: A National Failure To Save & Invest
The full suite of chapters in this new Crash Course series can be found at www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse
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Seems pretty simple: moarrrrr monnnnney printing
Yorp... all them welfare programs assume, at their very core, that those paying into them will always and in perpetuity, exceed those taking out.
aka.... Ponzi
It's a Ponzi by design. We pay premiums (taxes) into the social programs, which money is used to enrich a few. How many trillions did the Fed print in the last few years? How many trillions went to the MIC, black ops, etc. Had that money gone to fund the insurance policies/pensions that we call SS and Medicare, there would be no Ponzi. The widening wealth gap is not coincidental.
Ebola will fix this.
We privatize the profits, and socialize the losses.
Sorry, these days I am convinced that the "demographic bomb" is propaganda - "You have to work hard and get nothing in return because ..."
This shit works two ways.
Did the parents of the baby-boomers ever wonder how they could afford to pay for so many BBs? Here in Australia, the parents paid for the BBs' university education. But the BBs made their descendants take on debt, even as the BBs went through their peak earning years (i.e. peak tax revenue).
Parents of the BBs typically had four or five or more kids. Many had up to a dozen kids. BBs had two or three. Next generations have few kids, many don't even marry. Shouldn't we be saving bucket loads of money from fewer educational facilities needed? Our ancestors had to supply roads, water and energy to their BB children, these days we are told we have to go on rations. What happened to all the savings from not building any more infrastructure???
Not to mention that technology has increased productivity since the days of the BBs' parents. If the BB's parents could provide for the BBs, then our future should be a doddle.
Your right. It's factionism. Pit everyone against everyone else. That way they're not watching us screw them.
Most know this but participate anyhow thinking they can steal a little piece of that pie. What they don't realize is "they are the pie"
A plausible explanation of America's failure.
Civilopathy and the Decline of America
Copyright 1997, 1998 by James Michael Howard.
In March of 1985, I wrote a treatise entitled Evolution of Sociopathy in Western Civilization A Philosophical Treatise, (Copyright 1985, Registration No. 1-545-639). I said: "Sociopathy is here defined as an increase in the frequency of behavior typified by immediacy, ethical egoism, and irreverence in all socioeconomic levels. Immediacy: action due to direct awareness of sensory data as contrasted with what is added by memory and association or thought. Ethical egoism: individual self-interest is the valid end of all action. Irreverence: failure to offer due respect to that which is properly reverenced or revered; lessening of respect for traditional values." The insights that came from that book, and further thought, gave rise to another book in 1985, A Theory of the Control of the Ontogeny and Phylogeny of Homo sapiens by the Interaction of Dehydroepiandrosterone and the Amygdala, (Copyright 1985, Registration No. Txu 220580). My theory of human biology has evolved since these two books. I now have a clearer understanding of the etiology of sociopathy. I now understand that I should rename this; I was not writing about sociopathy, rather, I was writing about a new set of personality characteristics I now call "civilopathy."
I recently looked up "sociopath" in a new dictionary and found that sociopaths lack a conscience and are intensely antisocial. We know these individuals. They are relatively easy to identify. Many of them end up in prison. The distinguishing characteristic is their antisocial behavior. They are an evolutionary failure, because their antisocial characteristics reduce their ability to reproduce. Not many women find them attractive. They do not leave many offspring, partly because they are often in jail. I have finally realized that I was really thinking of individuals who lack a conscience, or who posses a misshapened conscience, and are intensely social. I call them "civilopaths." They should be evolutionary successes, because they should reproduce rapidly. Women find them very attractive.
I coined the word, "civilopathy," to explain a phenomenon that I think occurs within every civilization. If I am correct, civilopaths, male and female, will reproduce faster than people who posses a conscience, or if you prefer, morals. People who have sex without morals will produce more offspring. In my first book, I separated civilopaths from people with consciences by suggesting that civilopaths exhibited low cerebral control and low discrimination in terms of people with whom they would have sex. People with a conscience exhibit high cerebral control and high discrimination. I define civilization as a place where aggression and sexuality are controlled. That is, it is a place where high cerebral control is exercised over aggressive impulses and discrimination is exercised over sexuality. When civilopaths increase within a civilization to a point that the "average" behavior exhibited lacks cerebral control over aggression and sexuality, the civilization begins to decline. These individuals are pathological to civilization, hence, civilopathy. I think all civilizations first increase in individuals of high cerebral control; they build the civilization. However, once formed, this is conducive to survival of civilopaths. When they reach a certain concentration, the civilization declines. I think the rise of civilopathy has caused the decline of past, great civilizations.
I would like to quote part of the very last paragraph of my first book:
"If I were to describe the individual I fear most in their effect on our society, he or she would be the extreme of what I have been discussing with one additional characteristic, high intelligence; in other words the intelligent sociopath [civilopath]. This person can succeed in professions which are of utmost importance to our society. He will, like all of us, seek positions in our society which are most rewarding in money, power, or 'respect.' The fact that these professions are so rewarding may have already attracted this type of person; evolution selects those who are most fit. I fear that these professions are already rampant with these people and, I think that they may have already done much harm to our society."
I suggest that this is what is currently occurring in America. Civilopathy is rapidly increasing within the general population and within our leaders. Two signs of this would be a leader who exhibits low cerebral control and low sexual discrimination and a population that does not see these characteristics as faults.
http://anthropogeny.com/Civilopathy%20and%20the%20Decline%20of%20America...
Still a ponzi.
You are right. Ponzi paid himself with old investor money, and raised new money to pay returns to old investors. The banks and oligarchs have taken our money and given it to themselves, and then publish articles blaming us for not funding our social programs with the money they stole.
Maybe you missed the part about 3 workers to every retiree.
Maybe.
But you seem to prefer to ignore what doesn't fit in your false paradigm. So I'll leave this comment for anyone who might be fooled by your misdirection. There is no way to support $100 trillion in retiree benefits. Full stop.
You may have missed a couple things. There are 3 workers for every retiree because there is massive unemployment caused by offshoring that enriches the oligarchs, and reduced income among those who are employed for the same reason. And the oligarchs are given a pass on paying into the social programs, which only makes sense because they stole the money and they certainly aren't going to pay taxes on the money they stole.
LTER makes the same BS arguments every time b/c math isn't his best subject. Maybe he can also figure out how all of the states will pay their pensions as well. Eventually, it will all blow up due to too many people collecting a check from the Boomer generation. Even with more people working, it's still crap.
"Eventually, it will all blow up due to too many people collecting a check from the Boomer generation."
I think you have that backwards, Sparky. The Boomers are collecting the checks and they rubber stamped the Ponzi.
It is too many people of all types collecting checks whether it is farmers getting subsidies, lifelong EBT card users or banks getting bailouts. The demographics WILL break the system as no one in the youngest generations will be willing to pay about 75% income tax rates.
These programs are all Ponzi's meant to generate votes first and all other things...tenth.
Free Shit Army (votes) on the bottom of the theft pyramid, Oligarchs at the top of the theft pyramid and the middle class getting squished in the center of the pyramid by both ends.
There are 3 workers for every retiree because there is massive unemployment
Oh, so demographics are irrelevant? Baffle them with bullshit...
If your wife works and you don't have ten kids to feed, you can probably spare a few bucks to chuck at your old folks. Have a little think about it. Where did we go wrong? Really.
Lloyd Blankfein has a fantastic solution:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/goldman-sachs-ceo-entitlements-must-be-conta...
/sarc
He means other CEOs. If the CEOs didn't take so much money, the companies would have more money to spend on interest payments. Obviously workers' wages have already been screwed down too low. Now the CEOs are the low-hanging fruit.
Ohhhhh, so this is why Obama is letting all the children across the border.; he just wants to help the retirees.
he's registering those cons to vote...
When all the new Democrat voters start crossing the border going the other direction it'll be a good time start panicking....
Long Pig, meat of the future.
They Don't call us boomers to nothing. We are going to make the socialist dreams go BOOM!
Fucking assholes voted for bigger government, more social programs, offshored the jobs and stuck us with the bill. Fuck off and die.
Well the millennials voted for Oboma twice electing him hoping for free shit. They got Obomacare and seven wars.
This is gonna cost you far more than the old codgers on SS.
Now this boomer voted for none of it. In fact I have ceased voting because it's a sham.
Since you younger folk are so more astute on politics lets see you vote out all them 'old' members of congress. Lets see you tell Oboma to stop wasting money on wars, stop helping the .01%. Lets see how you youngins do.
Maybe they wouldn't have voted for Obama if the boomers hadn't sucked the lifeblood out of the country. The boomers created Obama.
In Australia, we voted against the GST. We still got it but we did manage to delay it for a few years.
In my state we had a referendum and voted against extended trading hours.
The MSM promptly published several "opinion polls" that showed opposite results. (What's your puny referendum against my rock-solid opinion poll!!!)
Eventually we still got what our referendum voted against.
Then MSM ran stories about empty shops - duh!
We've had four referendums, each one voting against Daylight Savings time. But that never stopped the DLS "trials". Other than that, I guess we are winning that one. Shit! Maybe we do have a little bit of voting power!
But in general, NO. I don't believe we have voting power. It's all behind-the-scenes stuff.
Politicians make thousands of decisions. Every four years you get the opportunity to tell them that at least one of those decisions was wrong. And no guarantee that the next guy will fix anything that the last guy stuffed up.
Tell you what food stamp, I've paid in over $200k in SS in my lifetime and I will surrender it all....if, they eliminate SS payroll taxes, and provide all, what we currently call entitlements, as WELFARE.
IF THEY ARE GOING TO MEANS TEST THIS SHIT THEN CALL IT WHAT IT IS....WELFARE. No one entitled to anything. Go down and BEG for assistance, and pay for every last dime of it with income taxes, general revenue. Will that make your poor little dick happy? I wouldn't be caught dead sucking off of it anyway.
I believe that I have paid well more than my fair share. I could have revolted, maybe lived in a cave somewhere refusing to participate in this sham, but I didn't. I paid for your fucking roads and schools. I paid for the fuckng guns and bombs too. I will do what I have always done and care for myself the best way I can until I can't, and then its over for me. But you, my little prick, have your own set of problems and you can sit around blaming it on your parents if you want, but guess what...Obama nor any of these other fucks are going to do a damned thing for you but blow hot air up your ass, so you best get out and figure things out, just like us old fucks did.
Good luck
Go fuck yourself. You want your money back? You paid $200K into social security and bombs? A single bomb costs more than you paid in. A single operation costs more than you paid in. Your narcissistic boomer complacency made your bed. Now go fucking lie in it.
It's funny to see these posts - I paid this, I deserve that. lol.
Now if anyone of y'all made anything worth a darn, holler. I made some 'new' music tonight. God knows all the notes have been played in that same exact sequence jillions of times before, but it's in the feel of how you play. The musician does matter, fortunately or unfortunately.
I build furniture when I am blessed with a contract which is much harder to come by these days. Again, I'm simply saying I have paid in plenty compared to most and I am not saying I deserve anything at this point, anymore than those people who were fucked by Madoff do. I believed the lie and was fucked for it. It just pisses me off to hear constant whining about how boomers have fucked everybody. We have each been properly fucking ourselves for years because we have wanted to believe the lies. Whether it was the joys of multiculturalism allowing our culture to be trampled, or be it the joys to free trade and cheap imports and illegals that will never cost us our jobs, or the fact that we have been forced to contribute to a sham investment called social security. What really pisses me off, other than I believed these fucking lies, is that butt heads continue to believe the answer is fucking government, after everything we have seen. That some collectivist Utopian dream can exist if we only gave them enough fucking power, like the corruptive force of power isn't the whole fucking problem. Just saying.
You paid $200K into SS and you are claiming poverty and being fucked by your system? You should have been a banker.
I have never claimed poverty. I build furniture, you know, in a wood shop with machines and shit. I have physically worked my whole life. At 61 I'm on my back recovering from a hernia operation (which I'm paying for thank you) and I didn't get it typing. I just love the generalizations and assumptions people come up with. I probably do it too and of so I apologize, but really. People do work and do have a decent life without tricking and lying and robbing people. We just can't keep attacking everyone who actually worked to have something as somehow wicked. Its just fucked up and will destroy what's left of this country.
I fully intend to. Will you or do you see yourself as exempt to these consequences because of your "fuck you" attitude. I will never suggest that what I have paid in is enough to fund all of the bulshit foisted upon us, simply that I have contributed more than my share. Have you? Will you? I'm willing to surrender any claim to my "entitlements" that seem to have your panties firmly wadded. All I ask is don't tell me they are social security entitlements that OUR government has been sending me statements on for years to enforce this perception of entitlement. If they are means tested, they are welfare, plain and simple. If I paid into a lie, well then I was lied to, just like everyone else.
What I don't understand about you is that you are always first to jump into any argument about socialism or collectivism seemingly defending them as somehow superior to your alternates of fascism or corporatism. So if collectivism and social benefits are so damned good why do you care who paid for them? It all comes down to placing blame for this shit storm we are in, and rather than looking at the liars who sold us this bill of goods, this something for nothing, you want to blame us idiots who believed them. Don't get me wrong, I'm more than willing to take some of the blame which I think I have d one repeatedly, but why do you never want to blame the collectivist liars that have ALWAYS lied to us. How we only need pay a few cents, then a few dollars and then a few hundred, then thousand to ensure our security and public contract. They are all liars yet you seem intent on believing them, wanting to blame the victim like you are somehow enlightened and above it all. Just lay off blaming us old, young or whatever's, and look at who is doing the lying and WHY they are lying.
One question. Did you benefit from this system that you now seek to abandon for your own sake? I already know the answer and it defines your generation.
I'm not seeking to abandon anything. I'm still working and have no plans for retirement. My assumption is that I will work until I can no longer and then work it out from there. Its pretty much how I have lived my entire life. Not much planning involved, just dealing with the next thing. I did marry a woman ten years younger so that might carry me a bit further but she is eyeing my life insurance pretty closely.
I find it sad and ironic that what we essentially have here is a blame game between victims. Most boomers aren't directly responsible for the looting and decadence of America, they have just consistently voted in jackasses from both parties* for decades. But since it's America, and we need to compete about everything, even if it's just for the title of Less fucked up generation (hurray!), I will definitely fault boomers, my parents generation, for their completely hopeless and morally indefensible MILITARISM. Ike warned us, but the generation that protested Vietnam (which was an unwinnable war against an ideology) in numbers never before seen in America quickly about faced once they actually entered society and happily used the military solution for just about everything. Even a relatively benign government power like the regulation of trade were weaponized into sanctions (which Ron Paul has rightly said is a form of war)...I mean how fucking long will we sanction Cuba? It has done nothing but prop up their kooky government. It has been a colossal failure and it costs us money, in this case in lost income/opportunity. The MIC and Florida politicians don't care.
Fast forward to Syria, where we are bombing our old friends (rebels) who fight our enemies (Syria) because some of our other friends (Gulf monarchies/Israel) are worried, and well...Raytheon just need our help, ok? Note that we are still fighting something amorphous, in this case TERROR. At home, our militarized police forces (so many of these--why do we need DHS when we had FBI already???) fight a war against DRUGS, which at least are things I can hold in my hand, unlike terror. We all know that the war on drugs is unwinnable, but we keep throwing money down that rabbit hole. So yeah, boomers want to use war to solve everything. And make no mistake, the boomers are still firmly in charge because...
They vote at high rates, and younger people, their children, don't really do much of anything of note.
Yeah I know, a bunch came out for Obama the first time (he was the first Pres. they were able to vote for, and their turnout was still low compared to other age cohorts), but I'm sure that well has been poisoned by, you know, Obama. It's true that a lot of the younguns didn't even study civics in high school (gotta focus on math/science so south Asia can take all those jobs anyway), so perhaps we could excuse their profound ignorance of basic US gov't functions. I really think that as a whole, public education has collapsed in the past 20 years and they are the crappy result of it. I work with a lot of young people and a shocking number of them border on being functionally illiterate, at least in the sense of speaking/writing/interpreting proper, business English. Almost all of the tortured English I read comes from the young, probably twiddled on their iPhone/S4. Really, if anyone is expecting young people in America to outcompete a hungry world in the next decade, think again. I think most of them realize the game is rigged and that they are overmatched in the real, my-parents-can't-always-help-me-here world, and so they dissociate into whatever escape they can find. Hell the whole hipster culture basically centers on opting out of society and embracing being a fuckwit. It's alot like the hippy culture of the 60's, without any of the activism (im sure alot of you ZHers decry those pinko lib hippies of the 60's, but at least they gave a fuck and were trying to improve their world). Their kids, by and large, have embraced apathy (hipsterism), and it's hard to really blame them. They are fatalists because they are fucked.
YOLO BABY!!!
* If you really buy the whole left/right, Dem/GOP "duality," you too are part of the problem. There are two parties: The connected political/corporate one; and everyone else. That people still think that voting in a candidate of their preferred political flavor (this site seems to lean strongly red) is going to change anything for the better are really deluded. Once again, another argument among victims.
Wait, you mean to say crony-socialism doesn't work?
The horror! ;-)
At least radical Muslims believe in utopia after death, socialists are just willing to sacrifice the rest of us to have it on earth in their lifetime.
The solution is easy. Double the tax on the rich and corporations. Like in Europe..life is great you either rich or not.
Its all about the people not the banks.
You may be shocked as to what qualifies as "rich" in the near future.
Bad math. If the oligarchs gave every penny they had to the gubbimint it still would not make up for the multi-trillion $ hole they dug. Europe also has the same problems on steroids.
"longetivity?" If you can't even fucking spell, how do you expect us to give you any credence?
Long-e - tiv- ity, It's the olde English version of the word.
Kinda how an Australian pronounces Aluminum. Al- you- min-e - um.
Re Al:
That's 'cos we spell it Aluminium.
Interesting. Thanks for mentioning the spelling in your parts.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#Etymology
No worries here, WW III will set everything straight...
SS is not welfare. We paid into it. We are 'entitled' to get our benefits.
Either that or scrap it now. No more welfare for the rich and the weapons industry.
Better yet, why don't they just print up a few quadrillion, pay me off what I paid in, I will buy gold and you will never hear from me again.
All this wealth the boomers have will be passed down, happens everyday.
Light bulb moment, 40 years ago when I started my business I worked 3 long ass years without a paycheck.
Bitchez.....I pick up pennies & trash
Wrongo, there have been two supreme court decisions that have declared SS to only be a tax with no payments absolutely required to beneficiaries.
Of course they declared it a tax or they would have had to rule it unconstitutional, which they didn't want to do. Same with Obamacare "tax".
"When America's social security, health care, and entitlement systems were first conceived, the country had a very different age distribution. There were roughly 7 active workers per retiree, and the ability to transfer some of that employee wealth to support older citizens was supportable."
When Americas entitlement programs were conceived the dollar and government growth was constrained by internal and external free markets and a gold standard. Today, the USD has no such constraints, at least in the short term as US entitlement programs have gone from being shouldered primarily by U.S. private sector citizens to being shouldered externally by global citizens.
When Americas entitlement programs were conceived by the government, they were conceived for the government. At the time, exponential government growth was not possible without the, "We paid into the system money" which was converted into fractionally reserved debt all along. end of story bitchez...
There were 7 active workers per retiree:
... and a wife and five kids per worker.
These days the wife works. Two, maybe three kids, if any.
Maybe we can turn all the old schools and kindergartens into retirement villas.
Day Care for the oldsters?
When SS came online average life expectancy was 63. Pesky medical science fucked everything up.
It don't cost much to feed an oldy - have you seen how much they eat?
We don't have a production problem. We have a distribution problem (including distribution in order to create more production).
With the sedentary lifestyle and shitty diet of Americans, in general, we may be headed back to 63 years life expectancy. I know A LOT of boomers that died in their 60's or younger. Heart attacks, cancer, and diabetes. Without some major breakthroughs in medicine, I think the Boomers' parents may be the longest living generation for some time to come. I don't have statistics to back this up, just a gut feeling.
Pay the retirees in cigarettes. It will be a prison economy anyway.
lottery tickets. That's all they spend it on anway.
*works at a busy lottery terminal for a living
How in the hell did that avatar pass censorship?
All I know is that white folks need to have more kids. That is all.
No. Everyone else needs to have less kids.
Or else there is no water shortage and there is no energy crisis and there is no pollution problem and there is no global fish shortage ...
The demographic that concerns me most is the huge number of immigrants we have now. I was at a crowded local farmers market type store over the weekend, and I would bet big money that I was the only adult in the place who was actually born here, including the store employees.
The immigrants worry me because 1) they are for the most part poor and living off of social services, and 2) its hard to have a cohesive culture when everyone speaks a different language and has different standards of behavior.
all that dadgummed diversity stuff seemed to work out pretty well in the last half of the 19th into the first quarter of the 20th centuries. i think most of them were poor, too. the established beaugoisie of the time thought they were trash, too and hated pizza. funny how that works in time.
I think he was referring to racial diversity rather than the ethnic diversity that you have alluded.
ethnic relates to culture. color relates to race. he meant both.
Undocumented Democrats. If Hispanics voted Republican, there would be machine gun nests every 50 ft at the fucking border.
Nancy Pelosi and Deb Shulttz would have photo ops shooting kids.
Twenty years ago California democrats (the same ones that are there today) were screaming bloody murder about illegals, wanting armed national guard on their border. They were protecting their unions and poor black folk...until they realized that the unions were fading away and the blacks were not growing in population enough to gain voting strength. They came to realize that Hispanics were the new "oppressed" class. Look at how they have adopted them and the Hispanic leaders have readily forgiven the left's prior cold shoulder, because now they had power. New Hispanic versions of Jesse Jackson and Rev. Al Sharpton popping up everywhere (not to go unnoticed by those Democratically appointed leaders). Now Republicans are scratching their heads in wonderment at how Hispanics could be pulled from under them. I mean all they ever said they wanted were jobs and Republicans obliged. Silly republicans thought they could win votes with jobs when really the only thing that really buys votes is power and money for nothing, especially when voters who are simply trying to keep what they have are shrinking in quantity faster than a California reservoir.
1 - They assimilated, learned English, or at least made sure their children did.
2 - We stopped immigration several times (for long periods of time) to make sure #1 occurred. Ellis Island was not always wide open, and neither should the borders be.
Anyone know what the SS fund would be now if the politicians had kept their hands off it - and it had been invested at a modest interest rate.
It don't work that way. Only if it did. Non of this pension bullshit is for real. It's all smoke and mirrors, gimmicks, ponzi using debt phony fiat crap. None of it is real. It's just a phony number sham, designed to look like something. And most sheeple got no clue.
I worked with an old guy who bet me $100 he could prove there was a government account, with his retirement/ social security money in it, with his name and social security number. THAT may not be how it was sold, but that's what the peeps heard, and Uncle Sam was just fine with that.
Juuuuust like Obamy care.
Sometimes a problem is best solved by taking money out of the equation: BBs' parents paid for four or five (or more) kids and the wife. Productivity has moved on since then. Now there are less kids too. Plus the wife works. No-one has to starve. We have the productive capacity. The only problem is political will.
But if people believe that they have to suffer then they won't bother looking for the theft.
But who owns the productive capacity. Its not the average person and even those who own stock don't own the actual technology of production. I look at office work spaces and marvel at how little most people do these days. They exist is a reality that will not last much longer. If they do not possess the skills to truly set themselves apart to actually be productive with the technology, technology will render them redundant. Middle-class white collar jobs are being lost and pushed into the blue collar area, where their entitled and listless existence will not be rewarded. People better wake the fuck up while they have a slim chance. Things can and likely will get bad very quickly. People have no idea. They think zombies are only in the movies.....and they are are very, very wrong. People are already lining up to eat your life. There way too many people out there who are ONLY good for eating.
They're not even good for eating:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_%28disease%29
No, the problem is that no one will talk about this situation because the old people go rabid crazy if you say anything about Social Security. They bought into the "Big Lie" about QASDHI being all their money. When I asked my aunt how long she could expect to receive payments from OASDHI, she would not answer my question. At least she did not go crazy. No thank you FDR for giving us an entitlement that will destroy this country. On my bucket list is pissing on his grave.
All you ZH’ers are saying that TSHTF is coming any day now, that the riots are coming, etc., etc. I’ve been hearing that for the past 5 years here. Though I do believe the riots will eventually come, I don’t believe it to be true that they’re coming in the next 2-5 years. More like 10. The subject of this article, “Demographics”, in my opinion has a lot to do with that. So, without further ado, let me support my opinion with facts.
One is painting Gen Y with too broad of a brush.
That is not opinion, but fact.
Nice post, IE. I think we don't know how long it will take because there are numerous things that can move that day forwards or backwards.
What I am sure of is it will break. Not one of these programs is designed with any fiscal responsibility. They are designed by leftists for votes. Socialism Security is for the security of socialism not for the average citizen.
I believe that right now, in general is the very best time to be a retiree. You are collecting far more than paid in and there is enough heft in the economy to fund the current deficit spending.
My hope is that libertariansim with the requisite economics is catching on. If enough people can be enlightened there is some hope...albeit small.
I do believe that the current system is so ingrained along with the politics that support it that there is no fundamental reform that will occur. It will just have to break. It will be ugly, very ugly but it is the only way forward, practically speaking.
Who says Spanish speaking people will continue to proliferate?
Things will change when sinoritas decide they want a career, rather than to spend the rest of their lives changing diapers.
As America becomes more and more Spanish, Spanish become more and more like YT.
Las señoritas latina necesitan tomar una postura en contra de los hombres que impregnan niñas de 13 años. It's one of the many things 'my type' notice doing mission work in Guatemala City for the first time. It's becoming a problem here in Portland, Oregon, and gets little media attention (don't want to hurt the revenue stream) due to a rapidly growing latino population. They come here rightfully seeking a better life. However, that's their culture. Women don't/can't do anything about it. When they come here they don't/can't do anything about it, because American's don't insist that they (Latino's) assimilate. Muchos hombres están en la cárcel because of this, and don't understand why! It all goes back to that "being able to let your kids play outside" thing.
there is a really simple fix for this. actually 2 really simple fixes. one would be to tax every dollar of income with no restrictions on amount of income or from where. the other is a bit more ingenius. at birth .gov makes a deposit of some actuarily determined amount of money that is invested in a special equity and bond fund to be drawn upon at retirement or permanent disability. there are obviously some intricacies that must be worked out but that would be the best expenditure of fiat money.
And who would manage said " bond fund" ?
See the fly in the ointment?
Oh, and FYI, it's fiat CURRENCY. Fiat does not qualify as money. When you learn why ( I'm not telling, you go figure it out) your whole paradigm will shift. It will be like sight to a blind man. Really
You've put the cart before the horse.
The money side of the equation is actually irrelevant. All that matters is production. Either we produce enough or we don't.
Okay, now you can re-introduce money to determine flows and distribution.
Actually, scratch all that. Start with an audit of all the tax dollars already coming in. Where does it really go?
the article is nonsense. The baby boomers have socked away incredible sums into US Treasurys. And Social Security pays a pittance - one and a half workers, at 15% combined personal/company SS tax, covers the cash flow without even touching the SS Treasury holdings.
But there is a SS balance, a huge one at that! The problem is the general budget being subsidized by SS cash flows for generations.
socked away incredible sums into US Treasurys
That's like saying "I have piles of IOUs from my drinking buddies - nothing can happen to me financially!"
The money went in as a claim on future production.
Sure the money will probably get pissed away. That doesn't mean it ain't there to put food on the table this week.
We manufacture money out of thin air to bail out banksters but we can't do the same to bail out SS?
"That credit card must not be used for groceries. It is 100% earmarked for beer!"
You show the typical "not my problem" mentality.
The money went in as a claim on future production.
"We have too many claims, you say? Well then the darn engineers better find ways to produce more!"
Uh, no. You believed those outsized claims, your problem if they cannot be fulfilled.
2016 I join the FSA. I have put 44 years in the system. I have worked my whole life. Blame me if you must. I know it can’t be saved. Who do I blame? 200 years of exponential growth has come to an end. I was lucky enough to live through the best part of it. Now all I can do is try to protect my kids. It will sort itself out. I just hope they are still standing after the storm. Good luck guys. Any solutions to be had will be local.
As a boomer I have no beef with anyone drawing on their entitlements but I really don't expect them to be there for much longer. There are lots of reasons why not but the main issue is that it will be used as another divisive tool to rationalize à growth in the government "protection" industry. They want us at each others throat and ultimately the only thing that can save us at is unity of purpose, that of having a truly productive and prosperous society. Those who seek to rule us do not want that. When push comes to shove I will resist any entitlement I can because if for no other reason, I know our government will use it to oppress us.
It's serously not a bad idea to join the FSA sooner than later. I've been paying in for 20+ years. I get those annoying social security "statements" telling me how much I can expect to make when I retire (in 30 years). Ha..!!! I'll never get a dime of that.
I can "quit my job" (get myself fired), get all the free shit, and work under the table part-time. Net-net, I'll be about break-even and live a much more free and stress-free life. Tempting....
Henry Ford knew.
What demographic problem? Considering the death panels of Obamacare, chemtrails, fluorides and the biggie Fusihima, no one born today will live to 60.
just got to kill-off a whole lot of old folks to make it work.
Like maybe a lottery. Let it run for ten years. Everyone over age 65 gets a ticket. The drawing selects an odd or even number. Chances of winning 50-50. The demographic problem will vanish by 2025.
An American born in 1945 can expect nearly $2.2m in lifetime net transfers from the "state" far more than they pay in, and far more than any previous group. A study by the International Monetary Fund in 2011 compared the tax bills of what different age citizens pay over their lifetime with the value of the benefits that they are forecast to receive.
The boomers are leaving a huge bill. Those aged 65 in 2010 may receive $333 billion more in benefits than they pay in taxes.This is a heavy burden to place upon the young. The article below delves deeper into this subject.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-young-will-be-burdened.html
Sure, blame the old folks. Many of us worked and saved for retirement only to be faced with near zero rates of return on our savings. (just to protect the banks) We were sold a lie that if we contributed to SS that we would receive a small allowance in our retirement - so blame the victims, us old people. The problem with our political system is that the politicians pass legislation to stay in office or support their legacy - but when the bill comes in, they are long gone. Should be no statute of limitations on graft and corruption perpetrated by politicians.
I blame you because you think it's perfectly alright to steal generation X blind. You just take and take and take and take. Our time with your credentialization, our jobs with your offshoring, our pensions with your financial fraud, our lives with your endless wars. Take take take take...why don't you do us a favor and take a nap on the highway.
A lot of generalizations. You can still have our jobs working the land, fishing the oceans, working the bush, going into the mines, raising the livestock, prospecting for minerals, running the trap line, building the bridges, hauling the garbage, picking the fruit and vegetables, sorting the lumber, welding the broken equipment, and on and on. Jobs that we the older generation still do that can't be tweeted on an i-phone. Get your hands dirty and then tell me how easy we had it during our generation.
That "hope and change" asshole did nothing but divide society; rich/poor, young/old, black/brown/yellow/white, male/female, laborers/intellectuals, etc. But the worst is that the hard-working middle class has been gutted.
Generalizations abound. Right there you assume we're all tweeting on iPhones and voted for Obama.
It's true that I voted for Obama in 2012 but Jesus Christ just look at the asshole parasite that the stupid party and its voters chose to run against him. How on Earth that anybody who gave a flying fuck about this country or its future could cast a vote for Mittens McRomneycare the draft dodging job destroyer is beyond me.
I think your ideas are pretty good. All the offshorers, cheap labor importers, bank bailer-outers, financial fraudsters, neo-con (and other) warmongers, those who refused to control our borders, all these should be strung up as traitors to their country and to their people.
Then, we would not be having this conversation about the later arrivals to the SS Ponzi-scheme being screwed by the earlier "investors."
But those people you are mentioning are not all baby boomers, who have been royally screwed by the cheap labor lobby, and were thrown out on the street and replaced by Asians in high salary IT jobs, while being told that their skills weren't up to date. And the younger folks coming out of college are told that they aren't as good as the asian imports. Of course, that means, that they arent' as cheap and willing to sacrifice any semblance of a normal private life for their corporate masters.
In short, we should all band together and start stringing up the scumbags, including youngsters like Fuckermann, as well as oldsters like Gates.
I have 5 children, and their futures are very much a concern to me.
Out of my circle of friends from college, only three including me has a kid. I count 25 people as close friends. Out of all the people I know from high school and college most do not have any kids, less than half are married.
For the most part I see white families with one or two kids max, yes there are a few with more but it isn't normal. They simply can't afford more.
Stark contrast to the blacks and Hispanics who seem to walk around with what looks like they are running a daycare center. Go to any Walmart and you'll see every single black mother with at least three kids. The productive class is not replenishing itself. Take a close look at elementary schools, white kids are a small minority in the most populated areas. A class of 15 white kids in Idaho doesn't offset the 200 kids in Detroit.
America is doomed not because of the retiring boomer demographic, but the new Baby Boom in the welfare class. You won't have to worry about three workers per retiree in 2020 because there will be -3 workers per EBT taker. By 2050 there will be 200 million blacks and Hispanics in America, probably less than 100 million Caucasians. The boomers don't care about that coming crisis because by then they'll all be dead.
I have a five year old kid. Fairly soon I'll need to make the decision if I want him to live in a country where he will have no future. Unless something drastic happens I don't think anyone can make an argument that the USA has a future past the next decade. Ferguson will be the common neighborhood.
We have 4 kids and it is hard.
http://www.zeppers.nl/nl/filmnl/arme-blanken-het-nieuwe-zuid-afrika
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22554709
http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTR2C3ZV#a=1
Welcome to our future.
Aren't we GLAD we protested against Apartheid?
The author assumes that there will be an increasing number of 'retirees' while I believe there will be a lot of 75 year olds working to support themselves and pay for unemployment and EBT benefits for the Millenials.
Ummm--hey---wait a minute----
how many of those 75 year olds are still working a job to support the grandkids, and those that are not working a job are working at taking care of the grandkids so that both parents can be wage slaves??
The highest percent age demographic working is golden agers.
Yep, sure wish I could afford to quit.
Yeah there's no way this is going to end well, but it sure as hell won't take 15 yrs. More like less than 5.
From the CBO: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BywsPDwCAAE16-T.png:large
To put this graph into some perspective, they want us to believe that by the early 2020s we will than double the amount we spend on healthcare. Since we currently spend about as much on healthcare as we do the Pentagon, it would be like funding a whole second military.
If the law says one thing and the math says another, it will be the law that ends up changing. In real terms the amount being spent on medical care by the federal government must come down. We probably won’t reach the end of this graph before that happens. It’s just a matter of when and under what circumstances.
Yeah there's no way this is going to end well, but it sure as hell won't take 15 yrs. More like less than 5.
From the CBO: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BywsPDwCAAE16-T.png:large
To put this graph into some perspective, they want us to believe that by the early 2020s we will than double the amount we spend on healthcare. Since we currently spend about as much on healthcare as we do the Pentagon, it would be like funding a whole second military.
If the law says one thing and the math says another, it will be the law that ends up changing. In real terms the amount being spent on medical care by the federal government must come down. We probably won’t reach the end of this graph before that happens. It’s just a matter of when and under what circumstances.
At this stage it all comes down to theft and ever more lies to justify the theft. The more lies you don't believe, the more lies they will invent. The theft must go on.
1. All will be well, if only we introduce this new tax.
2. Oh no! Shit is happening.
3. Go to 1.
We've imported and created so many parasites that those of us who have paid faithfully into SS have seen it depleted, and we will be screwed when the time comes to withdraw our share of the pyramid scam.
Case in point, cheap Indian laborers for the IT companies eventualy are naturalized and import their aging parents, promising to be responsible for their living expenses. However, when they do not, the parents then receive SS benefits anyway. I have seen this scam dozens of times.
This is a childish "fun with numbers" article. At today's company/personal Social Security tax, it takes only one and a half workers to support a retiree for the pittance payment of SS. 70 years ago, that eras low SS tax rate was basd on higher ratios of workers to retirees.
The actuarial store of value for Social Security program is fine. Should the fund go to zero in XX years, that coincides well with the baby boomer generation passing away and cash flows matching once again the program need.
What has gone a-kilter is the general budget cash flows that no longer have a positive SS cash flow to spend. Some serious hurt there, but it was the folly, not the SS program.
This is all about oligarchian public manipulation. Divide and conquer a la "red vs blue", "black vs. white", "late immigrant vs. early immigrant"...
A few people get it but not Taggart. If it wasn't for a few commenters this entire post and thread would equal a semantic zero.
"Now I know why tigers eat their young"
-- Rodney Dangerfield in Caddy Shack --
"Mess with my social security and I'll kill your greedy ass!"
-- exomike on ZH. --
The government won't "mess" with social security directly. They'll kill it by loss of purchasing power over time and 0 COLA. You'll never notice until one day it doesn't buy very much.
Social security provided to everyone is ridiculous anyway. There should have been a means test. It was meant as a safety net, never intended as a fucking retirement plan. Fucking people piss me off that tell me SS is all they have or the majority of the retirement savings. I'm 50 and debt free for a decade. I lived without a lot of shit to save and plan for the future.
Fuck off to EVERYONE that cries for social security.
Well, that's nothing. In Spain right now there are only less than two workers per retiree:
http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2013/01/03/economia/1357205622.html
And i'm sure the spanish entitlement system is far more generous... collapse is incoming.