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Brazil Crashes As Rousseff Regains Lead
Having rallied exuberantly on the back of hopes a reform-hungry hot-money-flow-encouraging Silva would take the Presidency in Brazil, a new poll this morning shows encumbent Rousseff back in the lead... and Brazilian markets are rapidly unwinding their exuberance. The Ibovespa is down 5% - its biggest drop in over 3 years. Brazil swap rates have spiked over 50bps and bonds bleeding as USDBRL jumps over 3 handles (to weakest since 2008). It appears just 48 hours after a strong rally on Friday, as markets 'efficiently' knew everything was great, Rousseff has realised a few well-placed, well-executed poll results and everything changes.
As Bloomberg reports,
Datafolha poll late Friday showing President Rousseff lead widening before Oct. 5 elections and amid broad USD strengthening.
Rousseff 4ppt ahead of Silva in runoff, up 2ppt vs previous poll; lead widens to 13ppt from 7ppt in 1st round: Datafolha
Record TV channel may release new Vox Populi poll, taken Sept. 27-28; last Vox poll showing Rousseff lead narrowing contrasts with Datafolha results
New polls from Datafolha and Ibope expected from tomorrow
And this happens...
Individual stocks are getting crushed:
- *PETROBRAS FALLS 9.2% IN SAO PAULO TRADING
- *PETROBRAS EXTENDS DECLINE, FALLS MOST SINCE NOV. 2008
- *BANCO DO BRASIL SHARES FALL 8.3% TO BRL27.35 IN SAO PAULO
- *CYRELA FALLS 5.1% IN SAO PAULO TRADING
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Current markets looking a lot like the 2007 top
http://www.goldsqueeze.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-vs-russell-2000-eer...
DOOOOOMED!!!!
And watch for a break of the 125 DMA now at about 1940 on the S&P
9/11 TRUTH GOES NUCLEAR: Massive Download In Progress
Brazil has been pushing BRICS to expose 9/11.
They're right in the Anglo-American crosshaors.
Since they downed eduardo campo his plane marina silva is being pushed. By whom? The usual suspects: friends of WWF like prince Philip, Guilherme Leal, Alvaro de Souza, Fernando Garnero (business BFF of Nathaniel Rothschild) and Maria Alice Setubal.
If today keeps up the way it's started off, yes, feels a lot like August '07.
Regarding the Brazilian markets, an equivalent drop in the Dow would be 855 points and the S&P 100 points
You mean, keeps down..
But me thinks tis moar akin to October 1987.. but with no chance for a recovery this time.
So an equivalent drop would be some 400 points on the S&P!!
SWEEET!
I'm going to guess you are old enough to remember late 1987. I think it feels a bit more like that. 2007 didn't end in a crash. It just did a slow burn through 2008, then crashed (when Ben and Hank walked up the hill and demanded a trillion bucks "or we're all going to die"). 1987 was up, up, up until it hit the wall.
Yeah, I remember 1987 - but I still think the conditions this time around feel a little more 2007-ish, and think we'll get the same kind of year of reckoning like back in 2007-2008 where it takes a while for everybody to come to terms with the idea that BTFD is no longer a good plan. But who knows, maybe Granny J and her buddies can keep the bull going forever.
"Do not adjust your television..."
meh, the brazilians are resilient, this I know first hand.
Datafolha poll: the best poll money can buy
See, now 5% - that's a crash.
The big money i.e. banks, etc. are trying to manipulate the election to favor someone they can contol.
They control the current leadership, they just want someone who does not get laughed at by other world leaders when he walks into a room.
Debt will eventually kill Japan as well. The US is down the road.
Viva La Revolutione!
Black Swans aplenty - but who will take first prize????? Brazilian Election, Hong Kong protests, ISIS strikes in Syria that accidentally end up targeting Assad, Bulgarian Elections, Ukrainian Elections, US Mid-Terms, "Terrorist "bombs striking the G20 Leaders Meeting on the Ides of November and wiping out 20 of the World's most Important Leaders???
Can anyone name the important world leaders that won't be at the G20 Leaders Meeting though????
Beware the Blackest of Black Swans - and you do know which country Black Swans come from don't you?????
Ah, the delicious irony......
Black Swans? Ay, they don't call it "the lucky country" for nothing.
Just froffin for it mate!
Yes, Australia, but please explain.
It's not a Black Swan if it's expected!
Just observe closely and you'll see it coming days or weeks before the great unwashed.
Keep your eyes peeled - and take care to not be sideswiped by an October surprise.
To state the obvious US Dollar is shooting for the moon in the next few weeks, but at some point will plunge against PMs - that plunge might still be months away - be nimble.
"To state the obvious US Dollar is shooting for the moon in the next few weeks, but at some point will plunge against PMs - that plunge might still be months away - be nimble."
My father has been saying this since 1971...
I think people have forgotten how the death of a currency works, in this case it will be global and it will be all fiat.
I happen to agree with that premise. Other fiat currencies will die before the US Dollar though.
I would recommend buying a range of PMs now - I've said the same since 2007!
If you're in the US at the moment, this is not something you need to worry about. If you're not in the US - Brazil perhaps - you can try and slipstream US Dollar then into PMs.
The Brazilians are some of my best customers right now, just always get paid upfront. I make them pay in dollars.
All the folks south of the border try and renegotiate and I always hold them to the contract. It is just the way it is and has been for 40+ years. Soon enough in America, open bribes will just be associated with the cost of doing business. Governments and fiat come and go, trade is the only thing that matters, period. Once trade stops, the world goes to war in earnest.
Froffin, a common Australians slang term for really looking forward to something.
Comes from froth;
noun - a mass of small bubbles formed in or on a liquid
verb - become bubbly or frothy or foaming
verb - make froth or foam and become bubbly
verb - exude or expel foam
Hence, frothing
IMO, all those are just sideshows and none are real black swans, they don't affect the structure of the global financial economy in any meaningful way
wars, political turmoil, dead leaders can happen all they like, bankers will still go to work as usual
Bill Gross on the other hand, is a real potential black swan
reading the follow-up stories on the internal conflicts in Pimco in MSM, it seems the jist of the split is Gross and his deputies hold opposing views on the economy.
Gross is pessimistic, his deputies are the opposite, and if Gross is on the bear side that does explain Pimco's underperformance.
If all that is true, I still dunno if he'll be a black swan for being the first to be totally wrong about how centrally controlled markets can keep going, or if he'll be a black swan for being ahead of the curve in spotting a collapse and was the first to get out
(or maybe he really is just an ass, and I'm reading too much into it)
Just as in the United Socialist States of Amerika, polls are commisioned NOT to reflect actual public opinion but to BE the news. "Hey dumb-shit, you're on the wrong side of public opinion - let's get with it and join the rest of your fellow citizens", is the message from the propagandists.
www.traderzoo.mobi
And they run to the US dollar, and sell gold and silver. Beyond words.
Whoops, looks like Rousseff isn't the one the chosen want to win.
Exactly, her opponent is the 'favored one' and the oligarchs are showing their upset in the markets, not that they can't reverse when so desired.
And if that isn't enough, the Brazilian banks are going on strike tomorrow (incl Banco do Brasil). Meaning that incoming money transfers will get clogged up until the strike ends and God knows what exchange rate will be applicable at that time.