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Pending Home Sales Drop In August (After Record Surge In New Home Sales)
Following last week's explosion higher in new home sales (despite surging record high prices), it is somewhat intriguing that pending home sales would tumble over 4.1% YoY, and drop 1.0% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.5% drop) and the 2nd biggest drop in 2014.
The 'stunning' rationale for this miss, provided by NAR's chief economist, is... "fewer bargain-priced homes' (which is odd given record prices and record surge in new home sales), and a "rising rate environment" (except rates are collapsing), with hope for the future based on the "employment outlook for young adults improving and their incomes rising" (more lies) and a "shift to more traditional first-time buyers who need mortgages" (except mortage apps are at 20-year lows).
Just last week, New home sales rose the most since 1992:
but Pending Home Sales dropped almost the most in 2014...
Do not show NAR Chief Economist Larry Yun this chart...
"Exiting home sales are expected to be stronger in the second half of the year behind improved inventory conditions, continuously low interest rates, and slower price growth"
NAR, Lawrence Yun
Charts: Bloomberg
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Next headline: August New Home Sales Revised down to -18% due to reporting irregularity.
The wealthy keep buying while average joe 6 pack lives in a slum.
That trend can only last so long... their time is coming.
Gotta wonder just how many more home sales the Fed can pull from forward given stagnant incomes and rates that have been rock bottom for years now. A point or two increase will absolutely destroy the housing market! However, I'll bet when that happens you'll start to see the $0 to 150k home sales category really spike b/c that's all the masses will be able afford at that point.
Oh, and don't forget, your "local" realtor wants you to know that TODAY IS THE BEST DAY TO BUY A HOME! : )
I can honestly say i don't give a shit about this article today. I just got an offer (within 1 month of posting) on my house, for 4% more than I bought it for two years ago. It is a HUGE house - 3000 square feet, with all the trappings (even a gym, bar, pool table, waterfall, etc. etc.)
It also costs a fortune to run.
Hopefully I can convince my wife to keep renting for the rest of my life.
Congrats! And now you can relax.
I too sold my 3000+ sqft last year and have been renting ever since... no way I buy back into this whore housing market until prices fall back to reality. I have no interest in buying the invetory of hedge funds & PE firms that are now starting to liquidate their books. Maybe I can buy my old house back (including a new roof and pavers I hope) in a year or two at 40% off????!!!!!
The trick was not being greedy. Now i sit back and laugh everytime i call my landlord about some pipe that is leaking, or appliance that crapped out.
I swear, people could sink this whole REO thing. If Blackstone is your landlord, you should just go heat up the brazing on one of your copper pipes a little bit. Or pull off one of your roof shingles. Man, if everyone did that?
Everyone is buying new homes because existing homes are all bank REOs that have been vacant so long, mold and termites are doing what manipulated markets could not- take them off the market. Permanently.
August was too hot for buyers. Sellers were feverish and not in their right minds. All good in 2015, market to the moon!
Traditional home buyers have hunkered down and very few millennials are buying today (see: "college debt" "job market" "mom's basement"). The "NEW HOME" sales market is driven by large apartment tracts for Obama Sheeple in the section 8/welfare/foodstamps crowd.
Bully!
the change in ownership report ultimately comes fron each county recorders office -
who is the party reporting what is a new home or not? The county or the home building industry?
If it is the home building industry - is it confirmed by the county via a CoO report (Certificate of Occupancy)?
You think they are lying to us(again) ?
Shame on you,or us.
Everything the NAR tells you is a lie. Remember that. Everything the NAR tells you is a lie.
The NAR: Now listen to this carefully, Norman. I am... lying.
Norman: You say you are lying, but if everything you say is a lie, then you are telling the truth, but you cannot tell the truth because everything you say is a lie, but you lie... You tell the truth but you cannot for you lie... illogical! Illogical! Please explain! You are human. Only humans can explain their behavior! Please explain!
Star Trek ripped off reality, just in the future.
Random Question my friends:
Silver, Gold or Platinum?
Which one would you get?
Answer: (D) All of the above.
Pffft you dont want that boring old junk, buy more Go-Pro, rumor has it its going to 1000.
My shoe shine guy has a Go-Pro on his head. When I get home I can watch how it looks to shine my shoes from his POV.
He does seem to be glancing at my package just a bit too much for my comfort, however.
You should be flattered!
Perhaps with little negotiation, he'd regularly shine 'em for free...
I would get lead if I were you. Soon it will be the most precious metal there is.
You oughtta see all the Civil War lead I've dug out of the ground in DC area. The stuff to this day is laying all over the place. People have a hard time grasping the reality and magnitude of war fought within a few miles of Abe's house.
D. All of the above.
Soaring dollar will price foreign buyers out of the market.
Fuck buying a new home, car, or any other major purchase which may support the eCONomy or the Feral Reserve's credit growth needs.
Heads must roll before the eCONomy can once again.
Last month I forgo buying an ounce of Gold and bought an American dream of luxury and performance in a 98 Eldorado with 48,000 miles. Best $2,500 I ever spent. I'm pimp daddy trash man now.
Bitchez...I pick up pennies
Yo, Paulie from the Sapranos drove that model ride! Fucking solid!!!!!
Shhhhh. There is an election coming up. Save the facts till after the vote.
The poor just need to buy $1 Million dollar homes. - Mr. Yellen
If you can't buy a $1M home by the time you are 35 it's your fault. - Jack Ma
Jack didnt build that. . .
"If you don't come to my seminar, you deserve to be Broke...!!"
-Tom Vu, circa 1980's infomercial.
What a combination... the National Association of Money Launderers and an economist. Hillarity.
I would buy silver and platinum.
I've seen those kind of graphs before. I think they were referred to as conditions that entered into turbulence.
If you have ever listened to 'Real Estate Today', which comes on Saturday afternoon and is hosted by ex-ABC news reporter, Gil Gross, you would know that the show is sponsored by the NAR. It is essentially, an 'infomercial' for the NAR. Lawrence Yun makes an appearance almost every week to tell Gil Gross how 'great' the market is. In essence, it doesn't matter how S:hitty the real news is, the NAR will spin it like a computer-balanced Top, into 'the best time to buy is right now'... At what point in this financialized economy, did buying a home (presumably to live in and raise a family), turn into a commodity-flipping venture...?
I'm thinking it was when the Fed/Gov got involved seeing it as the last turnip in which to squeeze $$$ before this whole big bad bitch implodes...
I check the Median HH income to avg sales price. Still 9x to 10x in many Zip Codes.
If you want to see how the home building industry is doing look at their stocks. Hint: Not very good. HOV BZH TOL KBH PHM
Many are trading at their yearly lows and looking like they will go much lower. Not even close to the same story you get from the headlines in the financial media.
Wait for the 10Qs come out...going to be some serious cash drain.
Damn it I wish I wouldn't skiped the "charts and graphs" classes in college. Im totally confused!
If the median household income is less than $50k, the historic metric for housing affordability @2.5X income should apply. Unfortunately, there are very very few $100K to $150K homes to be found anywhere. Whatever the spin, interest rate, or insanilty of sub prime loans, this is the true reason why sales will keep declining, declining..........
I want the new shiny house dear, just like my iphone6. I dont want that old place built to withstand a hurricane....
A family member has now had three signed contracts on their 7-figure house during the single month of August. The first failed to close because the buyer decided to back out during inspection claiming "wiring issues", the second cratered because the purchaser couldn't get his financing together (the bank said "no" to his collateral - other high-end real-estate), the third is delaying escrowing the earnest money, but it is suspected he may be having problems with his investors.
So that's 3 contracts in one month on one piece of property. How does that skew Larry Yun's August numbers?!