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"Broad-Based Deceleration" - Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Nov 2011, 3rd Drop In A Row
For the 3rd month in a row, S&P Case-Shiller home prices fell MoM with July's 0.5% drop the biggest since November 2011. This dragged the YoY growth to 6.75% (missing expectations of 7.4%) and its slowest rate of increase since November 2012. Non-seasonally-adjusted the drop is even larger (-0.6% MoM). Perhaps most notably San Francisco was the biggest drag on the index.
4th miss in a row for YoY home price gains and weakest growth since Nov 2012...
as prices fall for the 3rd month in a row...
“The broad-based deceleration in home prices continued in the most recent data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, home prices continue to rise at two to three times the rate of inflation. The slower pace of home price appreciation is consistent with most of the other housing data on housing starts and home sales. The rise in August new home sales -- which are not covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller indices – is a welcome exception to recent trends.
“The 10- and 20-City Composites gained 6.7% annually with prices nationally rising at a slower pace of 5.6%. Las Vegas, one of the most depressed housing markets in the recession, is still leading the cities with 12.8% year-over-year. Phoenix, the first city to see double-digit gains back in 2012, posted its lowest annual return of 5.7% since February 2012.
“While the year-over-year figures are trending downward, home prices are still rising month-to-month although at a slower rate than what we are used to seeing over the past couple of years. The National Index rose 0.5%, its seventh consecutive increase. At the bottom was San Francisco with its first decline this year and the only city in the red. New York tended to underperform over the past few years but it was on top for the last two months.”
The Y/Y NSA change:
And on a monnthly basis, things are getting from bad to worse to ugly when seasonally adjusted:
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How will the NAR spin that? My bet is to ignore and continue with the AMAZINGLY BULLISH narrative, which is ironically what all the lamestream newzers are pumping and pimping as October approaches. Pump, pump, pump-a-lump!
Pent up demand is rising, and that's a positive for future reports.
Pent up demand for income to make the mortgage payments.
Think 29.5 hr/wk jobs.....record employment non-participation rates.
Stuff like that.
your mouth to God's ear. Still waiting for my quarter raise per hour that's been sitting on my boss's desk for the last 90 days. I can really afford a house.
Remember these numbers are lagging by at least 90 days so things could be worse (or they could be better!).
that's the spin on it...
In Colorado the market peaked about the last week in June 2014 - first week in July 2014 (which is early. It should have peaked near the end of August). It has been very mushy since then . Buyers are very picky and price sensitive. Anecdotally I'd say that the market is up YOY by about 5-7 percentage points, which I think is fairly robust given the economy's general condition. Our employment is slightly above the national average but allot of it is with reduced hours and no overtime.
Pot growers are doing real well and I understand we are exporting some "real good stuff" to our neighboring states, so we have that going for US.
marketwatch headline says july sales rose 0.6%....
AFTER seasonal adjustments, it fell 0.5%...
so, what, real numbers are good, adjustments are bad, so you post the adjusted numbers? c'mon tylers.
madcows,
Don't sales always (almost) rise in July? Is 0.6% more than normal is the question?
For sure, a "slump" to a 6% + gain is better than the yield on the 10y.
The word is that the Chinese money is gone, pffft. Who could have seen that coming?
It was bound to happen as China started to assert itself on the global stage. They are the largest player on every level, and they have what amounts to a slave labor system.
I pooped today!
Here's your trophy....and another round of EBT's
The NAR will say its a geat time to buy a house..like they always do...
You're richer than you think. ;) Come in and see us today!
Yeah, I vote bullish. Economy firing on all seven cylinders.
Keep looking at hitting the road for a year or two. RVs are cheap if 15 years old with decent miles. See the USA before the crash...I mean the real crash. Fish and hunt all along the way. IF the waters are not polluted, of course. Cross bow is really quiet...
Join the FSA and subvert the system!
FSA? Free Syrian Army?????
Shame its a 32 cylinder aero engine.
GOOD
In the Washington DC area, it is easy to see when the housing market is going to collapse: Every other add on the local conservative talk radio station WMAL is selling house flipping systems.
The only house I've ever personally seen flipped was my grandparents former place--and that was by a tornado.
With DC there is so much tax money flowing it's incredible. Even in the peak of the recession DC was booming.
Green shoots bitchez
So when does the "Houses always go up" line come back?
See Yellen and Hyperinflation.
Pull out the Texas stats, and behold......
"Home prices continue to rise 2-3 times the level of inflation"
Really? So I can expect my house to appreciate 20-30%, since the real inflation rate is at least 10%?
What a system, housing prices re expected to rise 2030% while wages are flat or going down. It's called subprime. Rinse and repeat 2008.
Ahh yes, 2011...the year I was laid off from my construction lending job. Fond memories.
Maybe it's just me...
First sentence, big bold letters, ZH reports home prices drop MoM, third month in a row.
Only problem is, they didn't drop. The rate of increase slowed, but that's a big fucking difference.
I don't do carnival rides cause they make me sick... Too much fucking spinning. Has the fight club turned into a carnival?
Spin works both ways. But at least the gist is accurate.
that's why people need to point it out.
some tylers do like to spin, but not all tylers are the same.
More vacant homes again, more walkaways…more people asking for short sales awaiting foreclosure, rinse repeat. I thought the Fed was omnipotent and could re-inflate bubbles at will? No?
So, we are now up to earnings season again and the usual; Great “earnings” thanks to buybacks, stocks soar, bears are crushed. Lukewarm earnings, talk of more QE, stocks soar, bears are crushed, lousy earnings, talk of mega-QE, stocks soar bears are crushed. Rinse, repeat each quarter till Dow 25k, or so bulls think.
The final collapse will begin in Silicon Valley with the tech companies. Layoffs are increasing every day, and profits are no longer increasing. Property values are unsustainable as are the insane salaries for doing work done far cheaper in Asia. Without the tech bubble and wild euphoria for the newest toys, we are toast.
Yep. I feel sorry for all of those that are buying homes and mortgaging up their lives... it's going to be sad to watch it all unwind. And this time the government/Fed will not have near as much firepower to help. Plan accordingly gang, it's going to get UGLY.
This actually could have been avoided. But they had to fk with gold, and thereby fk with Chinese savings, thereby fking with the US housing market. Good job, Fed, Treasury, and gold indebted bankers. Another crisis because you just couldn't get it right and had to meddle. How many boomarangs are you juggling now anyway? No matter what you think, the whole world saves in gold. Did you really think that it could stand a manipulation gold prices when a dump in just US housing prices destroyed the planet?
Somebody above asked how the NAR would spin this deluge of non-positive data. There's an answer to that... This past Saturday on 'Real Estate Today' radio program (It's actually a 2-hour infomercial for the NAR, hosted by a former ABC news reporter, Gil Gross), none other than Lawrence Yun himself stated that increased inventory on the market was 'good' for potential home buyers because that dynamic offered them 'more choices'. For the NAR - and essentially the entire real estate 'industry' since the advent of easy financing (going on its 30th year or so), there is NEVER a 'bad' time to purchase a commoditized liability (a house).