This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"Broad-Based Deceleration" - Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Nov 2011, 3rd Drop In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the 3rd month in a row, S&P Case-Shiller home prices fell MoM with July's 0.5% drop the biggest since November 2011. This dragged the YoY growth to 6.75% (missing expectations of 7.4%) and its slowest rate of increase since November 2012. Non-seasonally-adjusted the drop is even larger (-0.6% MoM). Perhaps most notably San Francisco was the biggest drag on the index.

4th miss in a row for YoY home price gains and weakest growth since Nov 2012...

 

as prices fall for the 3rd month in a row...

From the report:

The broad-based deceleration in home prices continued in the most recent data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, home prices continue to rise at two to three times the rate of inflation. The slower pace of home price appreciation is consistent with most of the other housing data on housing starts and home sales. The rise in August new home sales -- which are not covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller indices – is a welcome exception to recent trends.

 

“The 10- and 20-City Composites gained 6.7% annually with prices nationally rising at a slower pace of 5.6%. Las Vegas, one of the most depressed housing markets in the recession, is still leading the cities with 12.8% year-over-year. Phoenix, the first city to see double-digit gains back in 2012, posted its lowest annual return of 5.7% since February 2012.

 

While the year-over-year figures are trending downward, home prices are still rising month-to-month although at a slower rate than what we are used to seeing over the past couple of years. The National Index rose 0.5%, its seventh consecutive increase. At the bottom was San Francisco with its first decline this year and the only city in the red. New York tended to underperform over the past few years but it was on top for the last two months.”

The Y/Y NSA change:

And on a monnthly basis, things are getting from bad to worse to ugly when seasonally adjusted:

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:12 | 5270344 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

How will the NAR spin that?  My bet is to ignore and continue with the AMAZINGLY BULLISH narrative, which is ironically what all the lamestream newzers are pumping and pimping as October approaches.  Pump, pump, pump-a-lump!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:23 | 5270391 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Pent up demand is rising, and that's a positive for future reports.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:27 | 5270415 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Pent up demand for income to make the mortgage payments.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:01 | 5270565 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Think 29.5 hr/wk jobs.....record employment non-participation rates.

 

Stuff like that.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:51 | 5270593 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

your mouth to God's ear.  Still waiting for my quarter raise per hour that's been sitting on my boss's desk for the last 90 days.  I can really afford a house.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:22 | 5270901 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Remember these numbers are lagging by at least 90 days so things could be worse (or they could be better!).

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:28 | 5270419 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

that's the spin on it...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:05 | 5271328 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

In Colorado the market peaked about the last week in June 2014 - first week in July 2014 (which is early. It should have peaked near the end of August). It has been very mushy since then . Buyers are very picky and price sensitive. Anecdotally I'd say that the market is up YOY by about 5-7 percentage points, which I think is fairly robust given the economy's general condition. Our employment is slightly above the national average but allot of it is with reduced hours and no overtime. 

Pot growers are doing real well and I understand we are exporting some "real good stuff" to our neighboring states, so we have that going for US. 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:45 | 5270354 madcows
madcows's picture

marketwatch headline says july sales rose 0.6%....

AFTER seasonal adjustments, it fell 0.5%...

so, what, real numbers are good, adjustments are bad, so you post the adjusted numbers? c'mon tylers.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:29 | 5270683 Hohum
Hohum's picture

madcows,

Don't sales always (almost) rise in July?  Is 0.6% more than normal is the question?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:30 | 5270924 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

For sure, a "slump" to a 6% + gain is better than the yield on the 10y.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:17 | 5270363 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The word is that the Chinese money is gone, pffft. Who could have seen that coming?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:22 | 5270395 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

It was bound to happen as China started to assert itself on the global stage. They are the largest player on every level, and they have what amounts to a slave labor system. 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:20 | 5270376 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

I pooped today!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:03 | 5270580 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Here's your trophy....and another round of EBT's

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:25 | 5270408 youngman
youngman's picture

The NAR will say its a geat time to buy a house..like they always do...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:46 | 5270515 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

You're richer than you think. ;) Come in and see us today!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:30 | 5270433 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Yeah, I vote bullish. Economy firing on all seven cylinders. 

Keep looking at hitting the road for a year or two. RVs are cheap if 15 years old with decent miles. See the USA before the crash...I mean the real crash. Fish and hunt all along the way. IF the waters are not polluted, of course. Cross bow is really quiet...

Join the FSA and subvert the system! 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:42 | 5270491 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

FSA?  Free Syrian Army?????

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:43 | 5270976 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Shame its a 32 cylinder aero engine.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:36 | 5270465 digitlman
digitlman's picture

GOOD

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:39 | 5270480 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

In the Washington DC area, it is easy to see when the housing market is going to collapse:  Every other add on the local conservative talk radio station WMAL is selling house flipping systems.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:44 | 5270506 Postal
Postal's picture

The only house I've ever personally seen flipped was my grandparents former place--and that was by a tornado.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:47 | 5270518 yogibear
yogibear's picture

With DC there is so much tax money flowing it's incredible. Even in the peak of the recession DC was booming.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:40 | 5270486 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Green shoots bitchez

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:44 | 5270504 yogibear
yogibear's picture

So when does the "Houses always go up" line come back?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:52 | 5270541 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

See Yellen and Hyperinflation.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:45 | 5270508 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

Pull out the Texas stats, and behold......

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:45 | 5270516 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

 

"Home prices continue to rise 2-3 times the level of inflation"

 

Really?  So I can expect my house to appreciate 20-30%, since the real inflation rate is at least 10%?

 

 

 

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:48 | 5270531 yogibear
yogibear's picture

What a system, housing prices re expected to rise 2030% while wages are flat or going down. It's called subprime. Rinse and repeat 2008.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:51 | 5270539 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Ahh yes, 2011...the year I was laid off from my construction lending job. Fond memories.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:55 | 5270544 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Maybe it's just me...
First sentence, big bold letters, ZH reports home prices drop MoM, third month in a row.

Only problem is, they didn't drop. The rate of increase slowed, but that's a big fucking difference.

I don't do carnival rides cause they make me sick... Too much fucking spinning. Has the fight club turned into a carnival?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:20 | 5270643 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Spin works both ways.  But at least the gist is accurate.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:13 | 5271264 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

that's why people need to point it out. 

some tylers do like to spin, but not all tylers are the same.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 09:54 | 5270549 Temerity Trader
Temerity Trader's picture

More vacant homes again, more walkaways…more people asking for short sales awaiting foreclosure, rinse repeat. I thought the Fed was omnipotent and could re-inflate bubbles at will? No?

So, we are now up to earnings season again and the usual; Great “earnings” thanks to buybacks, stocks soar, bears are crushed. Lukewarm earnings, talk of more QE, stocks soar, bears are crushed, lousy earnings, talk of mega-QE, stocks soar bears are crushed. Rinse, repeat each quarter till Dow 25k, or so bulls think.

 

The final collapse will begin in Silicon Valley with the tech companies.  Layoffs are increasing every day, and profits are no longer increasing.  Property values are unsustainable as are the insane salaries for doing work done far cheaper in Asia. Without the tech bubble and wild euphoria for the newest toys, we are toast.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:22 | 5270655 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Yep.  I feel sorry for all of those that are buying homes and mortgaging up their lives... it's going to be sad to watch it all unwind.  And this time the government/Fed will not have near as much firepower to help.  Plan accordingly gang, it's going to get UGLY.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:39 | 5270703 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This actually could have been avoided.  But they had to fk with gold, and thereby fk with Chinese savings, thereby fking with the US housing market.  Good job, Fed, Treasury, and gold indebted bankers.  Another crisis because you just couldn't get it right and had to meddle.  How many boomarangs are you juggling now anyway?  No matter what you think, the whole world saves in gold.  Did you really think that it could stand a manipulation gold prices when a dump in just US housing prices destroyed the planet?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:53 | 5271018 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Somebody above asked how the NAR would spin this deluge of non-positive data.   There's an answer to that...   This past Saturday on 'Real Estate Today' radio program (It's actually a 2-hour infomercial for the NAR, hosted by a former ABC news reporter, Gil Gross), none other than Lawrence Yun himself stated that increased inventory on the market was 'good' for potential home buyers because that dynamic offered them 'more choices'.  For the NAR - and essentially the entire real estate 'industry' since the advent of easy financing (going on its 30th year or so), there is NEVER a 'bad' time to purchase a commoditized liability (a house).

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!