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Did The Winter War Just Begin? Russian Gas Supplies To Europe Plunge 15%, Ukraine Transit Slashed 54%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just a week ago, the Russian energy minister made the first public 'threat' of gas supply "throttling" disruptions to Europe but judging by the data that has just been released, it appears the 'throttling' has begun. Bloomberg reports that Russian gas supplies to Europe fell 15% year-over-year in Q3 - the most in over two years - as natural gas transit through Ukraine plunged 54% year-over-year. In 2013, Gazprom sent 60% of its supply via Ukraine pipelines, in August that dropped to 39%, and in September only 34%. Of course, Europe remains confident its storage efforts will buffer any "Winter War" disruptions, as we noted here, but as Citi warned previously, "if colder weather arrives, storage levels will be drained," and then there is the Spring (and German industry needs).

As Bloomberg reports,

Russian 3Q Gas Supplies to Europe Drop ~15% Y/y, Most in 2 Yrs

 

Export outside CIS in 3Q set to decline to ~34bcm from 40.4bcm last yr; biggest drop since at least 2Q 2012, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on preliminary data of Russian Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.

 

Exports fell 15% in 2Q 2012; decreased 25% in 3Q 2010

 

Russia Cuts Sept. Natgas Transit Via Ukraine 54% Y/y to 3.7Bcm

 

Russia’s natgas transit through Ukrainian pipelines continues decreasing; it dropped to ~3.7bcm this mo. vs 4.5bcm in Aug. and 8.1bcm in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on website data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, Energy Ministry.

 

Transit to EU ~3.5bcm in Sept. vs 4.4bcm in Aug.

 

Total Russian deliveries via Ukraine in Jan.-Sept. ~50bcm vs 62.5bcm yr earlier

 

Gazprom Cuts Sept. Transit Via Ukraine to 34% of Exports

 

Gazprom sent ~34% of Sept. natgas exports outside CIS using Ukrainian pipelines vs 39% last mo., ~60% in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, energy ministries of Ukraine, Russia.

 

Ukraine transshipped ~42% of Russian gas to Europe in Jan.-Sept. vs 51% last yr

 

UkrTransGaz ships Russia’s gas to borders w/ Moldova, 4 EU countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, which    delivers some volumes to Turkey

*  *  *

Who will be hurt most?

 

*  *  *

As we discussed before, Europe is confident it can withstand a disruption as it has been storing gas ahead of the winter.

However...

European storage facilities contained a record 75.7 billion cubic meters (2.7 trillion cubic feet) of gas yesterday, making them more than 91 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group.

 

“If colder weather arrives, then storage levels could well be drained,” Citigroup said.

 

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Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:44 | 5270719 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

...W W 3's Black Swan event now initiated.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:44 | 5270732 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Long coats.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:49 | 5270739 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Bring it on Vlad, give the Euro Surrender Monkeys a good taste of the winter, Russian Style.

 

I hope the Europeans will grow a pair and toss out the bribed, compromised, criminal cabal that claims to be their government. But I forget, the EU Government leaders are not elected, but appointed in secret.   Hmmm, time for pitchforks?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:49 | 5270757 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Hey Ukies,  jump if you are not a Moskal.  You'll need to do alot of hopping to stay warm this winter, LOL>

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:54 | 5270765 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Even if they make it thru this winter, what about next winter? Will Russia suddenly sell them gas next summer again?? Print some Euros, you can burn those.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:59 | 5270783 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

There will be no next winter. The way the USSA keeps pushing, we will need  NBC radiation suits to survive.

BTW, notice how China and Iran are conducting joint naval manuvers and suddenly the HK democracy color movement comes alive? Coincidence.... I think not.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:01 | 5270804 pods
pods's picture

Mad Max is gonna have to be modified for a Winter Edition.
Assless chaps won't go over so well in the snow.

pods 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:03 | 5270809 outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

Let us not forget why Japan declared war against the US (WWII). The US was cutting off their access to oil.....

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:10 | 5270822 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Could you REALLY imagine todays Europeans declaing war on Russia?

Imagine Conchita Wurst singing to the troops....

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=conchita+wurst+-+rise+like+a...

 

BTW, I  wonder what happened to the USSA's shale  gas exports to the EU?  Could it be that the USSA adminstration was lying?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:20 | 5270890 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Jesus. Once you see that, there's no way to unsee it.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:10 | 5271065 knukles
knukles's picture

And you guys thought that the video of the do it yourself circumcision thing I posted yesterday was off putting.
No wonder the EU has no direction, no identity, no cohesiveness....

Gotta tell ya, this thing about the EU thinking they're stockpiling gas is similar to CA thinking they stockpiled water.

And to make it worse, the folks in CA when the reservoirs are almost empty are not even thinking of taking some heavy equipment and scraping out years and years of sediment to increase capacity when they can, when there's no fucking water.

Brilliance all the way around, boys!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:20 | 5271095 Jugdish787
Jugdish787's picture

I still havent forgotten that circumcision video...fucking disgusting, but I couldnt turn it off.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:35 | 5271340 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Knuk, I sit everyday in pure amazement as the people in CA continue to suck the water dry as fast as they can, without any connection to reality!  They really think this shit is going to get better and no one has to pay a cost or be inconvienced by this drought????

I try to explain to people who are upset about this, that there really isn't anything else the Kenyesian madmen can do actually, they cant upset the fragile order of big Ag and big housing and building developers!  Everyone is leveraged maybe 1000 to 1 in big ag and 250 to 1 in building developing!  The slightest disruption and billions are lost and the spiral into the abyss begins, evetything in the Kenyesian madhouse is priced for perfection!

Absolutely NO disruption can be acknowledged and allowed, even when the water is running dry and food cost are skyrocketing, nothing can be done, just the admittence of a problem could send housing prices plummeting, jobs would be cut by the hundreds of thousands, and off we go!

So the alternative is denial and you continue to take everything you can, while you can, and deal with it tommorow!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:00 | 5271422 rejected
rejected's picture

Or wait until things are bad enough for the federale's to declare an emergency and the rest of the country gets to pay for their folly. Standard SOP,,, right?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:04 | 5271440 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Most in CA are sucking off the welfare state and care less what the hell is going on. Californias, stay away from Texas!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:46 | 5272110 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

LMFAO
Texas has more federal money, oil and gas, and military assets and connections to the federal government, then CA does!!!

I'm all for Texas becoming its own Country and I would be helping you do it any way I could, but cut the delusional bullshit about how "free" you currently are!! Start the seccession talk seriously and you'll find out where Texas fits in the federal welfare system!!!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:16 | 5271087 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Could be effective. The Russians would laugh themselves to death.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:25 | 5271112 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Shale gas are just vein stories.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:56 | 5271219 pot_and_kettle
pot_and_kettle's picture

 

 

But the Japanese sneak-attacked us!!!!!

 

 

/ducking shoes

 

lol

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:44 | 5271359 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

In 2013, the US was a net natural gas importer.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:04 | 5271437 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

are you fucking naive?

 

do you read history? do you think europeans couldn't be brought to heel with a well placed false flag. 

 

i have an idea. nuke berlin. nuke oslo, nuke any neoliberal capital and blame it on russia. yea. you think it cannot happen?

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:36 | 5271148 One of We
One of We's picture

+1 for incorporating "assless chaps" into post....

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:45 | 5271362 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I've never seen a pair of chaps that wasn't assless.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:58 | 5270784 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Karma can be quite the bitch

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:18 | 5271283 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Dont worry EU, America is here to save you!  We are currently building a Nat Gas/Oil pipeline that will connnect Canada with the gulf of Mexico and were spending billions building a fleet of Nat gas tankers and flying cargo tankers to take that gas and oil to the EU, so we can help you survive your battle against the evil Putin!!!

ohh wait, we aren't doing any of that??

Ohh shit, it looks like your on your own, sorry guys, maybe we can print some dollars and buy some axes from China for you?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:37 | 5271565 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Now that peak oil and peak gas has once again been moved further into the future, the Russkies are just doing their part to make it happen artificially. They can do so, in limited areas. They will break themselves in the process, but that's fine with me.

A search here for "peak oil" reveals it dropped off the radar (even at ZH!) quite some time ago. 

 

As for Americans, the young should be concentrating on Peak College, a point which has already passed due to confiscatory tuition costs.

The old can concentrate on Peak Healthcare which is also in the past.

 

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:10 | 5270841 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"But I forget, the EU Government leaders are not elected, but appointed in secret."

let me see. the French and Romanian presidents are elected directly by the people, but this is irrelevant

the other 26 are appointed through a vote in parliament. because we elect Parliaments, which then appoint cabinets and prime ministers. and if a cabinet - which we call governments - don't behave the way the elected parliament wants, then it's recalled, and exchanged with one Parliament thinks is more appropriate

so you are completely right, Germany's Merkel is, for example, not elected, but appointed in a secret vote in Parliament, same as Italy's Renzi, or Britain's Cameron, etc. etc.

what you forget is that the system sounds so strange to you... because it allows lots of political parties. how many parties allows the system you are accustomed to?

further, "the boss" is not the Prime Minister, it's Parliament. that's why it's an appointment. it means "hold that power, but behave or we'll take it back from you"

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:32 | 5270859 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Who appoints the Commission?  And if a Commissioner doesn'T behave, who has the power to take things back? 

Who is the EU's boss?  Who gives them their power?  How many levels "appointments" does one have to go backwards to find, say, the Commission's democratic legitmacy?  

Describe how the above system related to Ireland in 2010/2011, France and the Netherlands in 2005 and Greece and Italy in 2012.  

Lastly, if you could describe the immunities members of the EC enjoy, and whether they last for life or for just their tenure.  Moreover, could you expound upon the tax rates the members of the EC are liable for, when compared to the rest of the "Europen" population.  

I'll wait.   

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:00 | 5271017 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

now you are switching from how the 28 parliamentary systems of the countries function to how the EU functions, but ok

yes, if a Commissioner does something that the elected EU parliament does not like, the EU parliament has the power to send him or her home. anytime

who gave that EU Parliament the power to do so? well, it's directly elected by the people. so it is indirect, but not further then once removed

but the EU's boss is not it's P, it's the countries, which in EU "parlance" are the "masters of the treaties", and are represented by the EU Council (where you find the PMs and Ms)

and that's why the EU Council proposes the commissioners. but the EU Parliament has to accept or reject them (and lately "forced" it's "own lead candidate" for EC boss)

let's pick Italy 2012, for example: Prime Minister Berlusconi was losing support in Parliament. the Italian President made Monti "Senator for life" (the Italian Constitution gives him the power to make 5 of them) and proposed him to Parliament, and so Monti became Prime Minister thanks to a majority in Parliament. Later, PM Letta had a majority, but that majority decided to send him home and appointed Renzi in his stead

meanwhile, every immunity can be rescinded by a Parliament

and the whole 30'000 strong Brussels thing has a special tax rate, not only the EC. so? the US gives the Prez a tax-free income, too. the whole idea of taxing a state servant that is anyway paid through tax-payer's money is a thing you should think through

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:16 | 5271088 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I get the feeling you are dodging the "meat" of what I am going after.  Maybe I am not explaining myself clearly enough?  

I'll try it like this;

In your educated opinion, has the "EU" ever not just ignored the democratic will of the people, but acted directly in contradiction to the will of the people?  

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 02:51 | 5274065 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you have no idea how difficult it is to answer such a question in this format. I'd have to write a whole book to answer you. do you want to box me in a simplistic "no, never"?

I could point to you at least a dozen hard cases where a national parliament went against the apparent democratic will of the people, for example, and was immediately reelected. you forget in your way of putting things the whole world of political compromise. the world is swirling grey, not in stark blacks and whites

the democratic will of the people is constantly shifting on many issues. just note how long the tribulation went in Germany from pro-nuclear to anti-nuclear, for example

take the Alternative für Deutschland party as example. their core issue was EUR-criticism. yet they are on one side frustrated by the potential "no" to the EUR, which in Germany seems to be around 25% according to AfD itself. yet on the other side they found other (neglected) issues on the conservative side which they find worthwhile, and are so on a path of becoming a political platform for those other issues. the reason is simple, if there was a referendum in Germany about the EUR, it would be a resounding "yes"

take Russian gas as a different example. tell me what the democratic will of the people is, about Russian gas. my take: "it's complicated"

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 05:55 | 5274193 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Gordo, 

You dodged the question.  I did not ask you to equivocate EU actions to that of vast unnamed parliments the world over.  

The reason Germany is so infatuated with the EU is two fold;

1) If you aren't a fervant EU supporter, you are a Nazi.
2) Foreign-imposed post-war guilt.

Sure, its complicated.  But, simultaneously, the EU is acting like Spain and Ukraine are and have.  They are all for democracy as long as the people vote to continue the status-quo, when popular opinion changes, and it works against the status-quo - the EU becomes very authoritarian.  

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 06:41 | 5274240 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Haus, I'm hiding behind the fig leaf of limited space. I find it's a quite big fig leaf, that allows me to shoot back a

you like populist messages even when they are not supported by facts, just for the "awake the masses" effect

but it's a fig leaf nevertheless, and I feel a bigger one then the "masses have to be awaken" one

So I ask: why are Hessians infatuated with Federal Germany in the first place? Why can't Hessen be sovereign instead of semi-sovereign?

I completely agree with you. The "Sir, You Are A Nazi" card is used too often, in Germany. Nevertheless, Vae Victis still applies. WE LOST THE WARS, period. Note the Hessian Constitution of 1946 mandating "Völkerverständigung" and damning (imperialistic) warfare (and also prohibiting me from ever be elected in Hessen, but that is a different story)

I completely disagree with you on the EU being authoritarian, though. See here my comment on Rajoy. It's Spain and the UK being the most fervent anti-independence movement bashers... with words (then the UK allowed a referendum). And the EU-org has only words, no police and no army, remember?

I find that authoritarian should be kept as a label for the police baton and the army machine gun

as you write, "when popular opinion changes". The People are The Sovereign. And The Sovereign changes it's mind, from time to time. Meanwhile, Hessians want to be Germans, and Germans want to be in the EU and use the EUR, generally speaking, in the same way as Catalans seem (no referendum yet) to want independence from Spain... but aren't against the EU or the EUR

try to reboot your system: City of Frankfurt, Bundesland Hessen, Federal Republic of Germany, EU, The West. Which is "good" and which is "bad"? Who does tax you? Who does police you? Who has an army? Where is popular opinion situated? Who steers what? Realize that Hessen has a vote in the Bundesrat. Realize that Germans are very, very federal in their political thinking (no, not the East Germans), for them Germany having a vote in the EU Council is a continuation of their federative principles

what do Hessians want?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:34 | 5270940 Duffy
Duffy's picture

That thing racing past you was "the point."

 

Your argument distills to the idea that there is democracy in America, because you can choose between A and B, with no regard to who controls A and B.

 

Good grief, man - there's a forest behind that tree....

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:47 | 5271373 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

You mean that in the US, it really doesn't matter which candidate wins because the candidates themselves are either rigged or get rigged once K Street gets ahold of them?

 

Whowoulddathunkit?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:39 | 5270951 Anarchy 99
Anarchy 99's picture

BS, latina is talking about the unelected in Brussels.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 17:12 | 5272272 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

To me the epiphany about Europe arrives when Berlusconi is sent packing by the EU Overlords and replaced with...

...an alumnus of Goldman Sachs.

Just like that.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:48 | 5270750 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

News Out

Finland, Swededn Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria Declare War Against.....

........USSA.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:56 | 5270770 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Who cares if Finland, Sweden Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria  declare war against the USSA? A few NSA wiretaps and pictures of  young boys sacrificed by certain leaders and they will slither away. Only compromised and bribed EU presidents/PMs would have acted so stupidly against Russia.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:07 | 5270787 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

"Long coats" as sleeping attire.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:13 | 5271075 Brown Brother
Brown Brother's picture

Going long Burlington coat factory.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:22 | 5271105 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

EU Fall/Winter Fashion = Long Coats, Long Dresses, Gloves, and...

Boots & pants, and boots & pants...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:45 | 5270737 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

The democracy promoters have taken a shit on several parts of africa, and many parts of the middles east. Afghanistan. Now they have obviously moved their bowels over to China where they are moving their bowels on Honk Kong.

 

It never gets non face palm worthy when one mulls the thought that the folks WE elect are the bad guys.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:47 | 5270742 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You mean that YOU elect. I'm not that evil, nor stupid enough to ignore said evil.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:10 | 5270836 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

You elect, we select.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:26 | 5270910 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

You get to elect any horse in the stable as long as it's the one by the door.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:37 | 5270948 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

I'm not part of We either hard core dwayne. take your moped and go picket another post. I'm on your team.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8tfuBIutLI

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:49 | 5270754 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I might be getting older but I can see better than ever. I can now see black swans all the way to the horizon.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:51 | 5270756 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Let's see what damage our idiot in chief has caused so far?

Pissing off Putin and putting half of Europe in the cold. Check.

Continuing to whack the hornets nest in the middle east which in turn is making everything more unsafe in the US. Check 

Speeding up de-dolarization. check

Obamacare, ruining healthcare and the biggest job cutter in US history. check

Etc

etc

etc

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:07 | 5270825 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Obama's too distracted by Reggies Rear to pay attention to anything else.  Just ask Michael/Michelle/Wookie.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:55 | 5271397 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Russian roulette, now featuring real Russians!!!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:43 | 5270720 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

I don't understand how one can postulate Europe "thinks they can outlast the winter by storing" when they have stored more or less what they had stored LAST winter..

 

Russia is holding the cards and the nukes. The west is holding their dicks ( Nudelman included ), and an overpriced military.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 19:00 | 5272748 TheSecondLaw
TheSecondLaw's picture

Russians are used to suffering. Americans are not. 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:43 | 5270721 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Fuck the EU

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:46 | 5270741 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Nuland was right after all. LOL.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:54 | 5270767 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

what was the context again of Vicky Nuland telling this US Ambassador "Fuck the EU" again? I wonder if anybody remembers at all what the EU delegation suggested and what Nuland wanted

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:00 | 5270797 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Off the top of my head I don't remember the exact reason. Was concerning what side Ukraine was going to buddy up to in trade - Russia or EU - ultimately the basic East-West battle for control of the global monetary/financial system.  Was concerning (I think) the method by which EU & USA were going to get Ukraine to choose West, and a disagreement over the method. At which point USA said fuck-it and sent in their chaos-creating mercenaries anyway.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:31 | 5270926 Joe A
Joe A's picture

I agree with semperfi below me. The EU was hesitant because they understand very well the volatility of the situation. America does not care for these kinds of sensitivities especially when the price that is dominance over Eurasia, dollar hegemony and hence world domination is at stake. Someone commented here a few weeks ago that the US would not hesitate turning Europe in a smoldering heap. I thought he was joking but am not so sure now. Russia btw. would not hesitate either. The EU is indeed fucked.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:46 | 5270981 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

For the US / Global masters / Deep state or whatever you want to call it, they are perfectly fine with Europe suffering as they will not suffer. They are fine with war because war is part of their agenda.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:49 | 5270996 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Europeans are really tired of having their continent turned into a pile of rubble. Perhaps the idea of 'no more wars' is delusional but it would be nice. Cause the war after that might be fought with sticks and stones.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:35 | 5271336 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

This exactly is the reason why the most population of Europe (beside Poles and Ukies) stand on the side with Russia. USA and NATO lost all credebility. The media are talking story almost everyone (beside the prowestern youth) knows it's propaganda. The sheeple are stupid in the economic afairs and don't get how central banks steal their wealth, but they do get very well how USA with GB fucked Europe in the WWII and also see that Russia just want to make business even if it's sometimes through corruption of government officials. But it's always BETTER THAN WAR! Fuck the psychopats at FED! Once the hordes get upset they will hang all the banksters filth.

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:35 | 5270943 Duffy
Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:58 | 5271409 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

She will send them some cookies...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:59 | 5270780 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Looking back, I wonder just how bad Europe would look today if the Germans had been successful in WW 1 or WW2.  I'm thinking it wouldn't look any worse.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:09 | 5270826 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Seeing as Germany controls the EU, what makes you think they lost?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:24 | 5270906 semperfi
semperfi's picture

The Rothschild Regime controls the EU.  The Germans are just pawns, dupes, footing the bill.  You know, morons.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:45 | 5271360 rejected
rejected's picture

Sort of like americans?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:06 | 5271983 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Exactly.

Your country is not your family or your friend.   It is just a conceptual idea that elites use to blind you to their theft, murder and rape.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:27 | 5270911 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Well, all those Nazis didn't just start voting Democrat in 1946...plus all of the loot that was never recovered. Plenty of evidence that it was slowly laundered into the financial system. Heck, there's evidence Martin Bormann was still signing checks in his own name in 1967 via Deutsche Bank in Buenos Aires. I'll further suggest that it was a Nazi ideal for a "unified Europe" as well. My own feelings are that too much of the financial system is beholden to or otherwise controlled by these self-same Nazi types. Of course, they're not going to put on obvious suits anymore and we change a few group names, but it's the same happy little bunch.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:48 | 5270999 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The high up Nazis engineered an escape plan for themselves.  Operation Paperclip.

Most got new identities and new lives (in South America).  Many joined the US or USSR's military research programs or intelligence agencies.    Very interesting what Otto Skorzeny had to say about Prescott and GHW Bush (George Scherff Jr, as per Otto Skorzeny)!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:02 | 5270801 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The entire EU 28 has only twice the actual gas storage capacity of some untermenschen backwater like Ukraine... I thought Germany was some industrial powerhouse (at least they have 2 months and gas change of capacity, unlike the UK with a little over two weeks capacity).

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:09 | 5270828 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

The British buy their gas from a different enemy, Qatar.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:44 | 5270723 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"If colder weather arrives"?  In the winter?  Can't happen.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:46 | 5270738 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Maybe they'll start hedonically adjusting the temperature to compensate?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:44 | 5270726 HastaLaVista
HastaLaVista's picture

"Let them heat cake"

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:45 | 5270736 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

So.... the way this will be played in the war mongering MSM will be "evil Russia is starving/freezing its Ukranian neighbours" ...."NATO/the West/the 'white hats' must respond to this provocative act" 

Its the Russian's gas - they can do what they want with it.  Why would the sell it to those setting up armies on their border? 

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:02 | 5270798 Jano
Jano's picture

the point is, that Russia plays according to contract. The contract states minima and maxima. Russia is within the interval. so nobody can say, that they do not stick to the contract terms......

But what did the €U morons think will happen, after the sanctions...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:47 | 5270745 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

To be honest, we're having temperatures over here that are almost identical of the summer temperatures and our industry is really collapsing right now so my bet is that it's just a demand issue and not a supply issue.

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:52 | 5270763 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Maybe the central banks will call off winter this year, and it won't be an issue.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:55 | 5270773 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Supplies down 15% wonder when that corresponding price adjustment comes. Russia will collect dearly for the insolence of the west and the EZ can balk at the price all they want......till there is no more furniture to burn. 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:47 | 5270748 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

Putin will be begging for American/European toilet paper in a few more weeks.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:53 | 5270764 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Newspapers will do the trick like they used to in the past.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:11 | 5270840 Joe Plane
Joe Plane's picture

They used Chinese TP even back in the USSR :)

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:16 | 5270876 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Radioactive:

 

Either

 

a) You missed adding a /sarc tag at the end of your post, or

 

b) You're nuts.

-30-

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:41 | 5271352 rejected
rejected's picture

Maybe they'll use some of those worthless dollars...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:48 | 5270751 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Two words:

 

WINTER WAR 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:57 | 5270779 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

You forgot the third word:

IMMINENT

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:18 | 5270886 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Lulz:

 

Has Begun

 

There, fixed it.

-30-

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:28 | 5270913 ekm1
ekm1's picture

already underway

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:48 | 5270752 The Phallic Crusader
The Phallic Crusader's picture

Gas transfers may be declining, but there's a booming business is mass graves.

Not that the MSM has much of an interest in covering mass graves or Russian calls to investigate them.

After all, the putsch regime in Kiev are "good" terrorists - just like the "good" beheaders/Christian killers in Syria/Iraq.

Forward!!!

 

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:55 | 5270775 Joe Tierney
Joe Tierney's picture

Well, the French can just bundle up and take baths once a year instead of the normal once a month. Stinky is as stinky does....

 

The Germans can roast schnitzen-grubben in their living rooms to keep warm - though 14 is their limit....

 

The Polish can use sterno to heat their pierogies....

 

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:03 | 5270810 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

After recently returning from the south of France, I think baths once per year is the maximum.  Standing downwind of the Morrocans will knock you off your ass.

Meanwhile, the Germans, they can sit in their BMW's and turn up the heat.

As for the Polish, they can re use the methane from their toilets.  Inhale deep, polacks, Russia sends her love.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:55 | 5270776 youngman
youngman's picture

You can bet your BBQ that Putin will shut off the gas this winter....its his trump card...he is not a nice guy....he will want to show his power...and the EU will cave..they have to or die..all that wind power in Spain and Germany will not do crap....

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 10:55 | 5270777 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Funny thing would be, by the time they build that pipeline from Qatar through Syria to Europe, there would not be much industrial demand in Europe for that gas.

Ultimate LULZ!!!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:01 | 5270796 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Nice little "care package" with a bow on top with a little card that reads you might want to reconsider... So Think about it!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:04 | 5270817 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

One might think these ISIS guys were working for the big commodity traders or something.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/30/us-mideast-crisis-wheat-idUSKCN0HP12J20140930

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:26 | 5270907 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Thanks LB

And why not?... Might as well starve the ones out you didn't manage to finish off with that bomb and put that grain to good use along with the oil "someplace else"!....

After all... The "elders" running this show are telling us the commercial economy has too much of both and doesn't really need it right now anyway, especially the ones that previously owned it that are being systematically slaughtered  for the greater good of course!!!

I try to imagine what must be going through the minds of the U.S. Navy and Air Force pilots doing more of it after what they've already done in Iraq and Afghanistan and you realize there is absolutely no hope for the future.

All you can say is that they really must love flying! Oh and dropping bombs indiscriminately on people that can't defend themselves!!!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:29 | 5270916 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Everytime I think I have the measure of people's stupidity, I have to again lower my estimate.

You can't learn to farm effectively in a week, a month, or a year.  Yes, yes, "dumb peasants' and all that... But you can't do it.   And the error is repeated again and again and again over the millenia.

You take the seed grain from the farmers, thinking to starve the population into submission...

...but submission grows no grain and bakes no bread. 

The seed wheat was eaten.  There will be no crop next year.

The difference between the starving submitters and the grain-takers is nine months.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:28 | 5271121 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The stupid peasants were glad at the reduced price they paid for the wheat.  Thank you ISIS!  Allahu Akbar!  But they forgot that ISIS also scared the farmers off their farms (so no crop next year, unless ISIS somehow farms it) and stole the wheat, hence the low price!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:12 | 5270844 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

She gave them cookies, what more do you want?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:06 | 5270823 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I see a baby boom coming. fuk'r freeze.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:36 | 5270945 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

exactly then come the summer sell the baby for hard cash,bitcoin or gold.

for tel aviv and istanbully bully a fresh child is highly prized for satanic blood ritual.

the demonic caananite rabbi needs this youth for meat and drink

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:21 | 5270838 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Somehow I doubt that politically motivated disruptions to supply will lessen the European desire for alternate gas suppliers. 

Instead, it seems to me, that politically motivated disruptions will raise the relative priority of pipeline projects to other non-Russian, non-government suppliers.

Most people have their own lives to live, and don't give a shit about Ukraine, or Russian prestige, or Russia's much broadcast 'big kid in Europe' status (150 million Russians vs your puny 60 million French, Germans, Britains....)

I am sure European governments hear Russia loud and clear.  They were very resistant to 'sanctions' for fear of reprisals.   Unlike the US, they have to live next to the bear.

But what are they going to do?  Why go to war when pipelines can be built so much more cheaply? When buying from Vlad they have to worry about being invaded with Armies built from the very money they pay for energy.  They have to worry about nuclear obliteration.  They have to worry about unreliable supply every time an ambitious Russian politician gets an itch in his pants and decides to 'send a message'.

If they buy from Haji instead, they have to worry about the odd head-chopper, and outrageously violent behavior that in the last two millenium hasn't had much invasion success in Europe, Byzantines excepted.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:33 | 5270936 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"Somehow I doubt that politically motivated disruptions to supply will lessen the European desire for alternate gas suppliers. "

I think that that is how determined Putin is to keep ZATO off of his doorstep.

An American, not US subject.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:01 | 5271959 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Can you point to the baltics on a map?

Do you know where Koenigberg is?

If you do, then answer this:

Why is it an issue now, and not earlier?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:35 | 5270939 petkovplamen
petkovplamen's picture

you are not very good at spinning, so you better not try it again. 

Russia doesnt want to attack anyone. Just want to coduct bisiness. It's the USA/EU who want ot steal all that nice Russian oil/gas and not pay anything.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 15:59 | 5271952 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Spinning is all that you're doing.

If you point a gun at your clients, they won't want to be your clients.

You fly bombers over people's cities and tell them you can seize their capitols in two weeks, and those are not actions compatible with keeping clients.

That's a fact.

PERIOD.

You think I am wrong?

Prove it.

How would you like to trade for some Dollars?

Really?  Why not? 

Which petkovplamen am I arguing with?  The one who says that those actions are alright when Russia does them?  Or the Petkovplamen who says they are not alright, when anyone else does them?

You can't have it both ways.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:13 | 5270856 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Based on the previous article regarding the Fed QE bailout of Europe, how likely is it that Merkel's government will adopt its own Foreign Policy...?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:38 | 5270954 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Occupied countries do not have a foreign policy. They follow the leader in march step---Hiel Neocon !  Hiel Debt Financing !

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:14 | 5270866 Bankster Kibble
Bankster Kibble's picture

How much of last year's volume is now going through North Stream pipes straight to Germany?  How much did Ukraine divert in 2009 and are they doing it again?  And is there any way for Gazprom to increase the flow through Belarus or Finland and decrease it through Ukraine?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:16 | 5270875 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

Bloomberg reports that..

Quoting bloomberg on ZH somehow seems very sad.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:18 | 5270882 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Europeans can huddle together under a blanket and let out a few farts to keep warm this winter.

 

Rose by any other name...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:18 | 5270888 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

A childs game of King of the Mountain, who goes bankrupt first and who is better prepared for hardship.  Place your bets---US, EU, Russia or China .  Winner takes all of what is left of the human race only there will not be enough left for a Marshall Plan

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:21 | 5270893 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

Putin in his stupidity has probably just halted the popping of the British property bubble as wealthy Russians pull their money out of the motherland and stick it straight into London real estate. If he let it collapse it'd take the British economy and a handful of American/European banks with it.

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:39 | 5270914 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

i do hope putin does not allow the in the closet so called royal jews of saud and qatar to prevail in syria.

i do hope the jewish dog erdogan gets a bloody nose if his tanks invade the sovreign territory of syria.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:30 | 5270922 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Putin may not hold all of the cards, but he has most of them.

He can throttle back gas deliveries while raising the price per unit so as to INCREASE profits while getting the western Europeans citizens to browbeat their pols and crats for being such DC US and Israeli stooges.

"Check!"

An American, not US subject.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:35 | 5270942 Smiley
Smiley's picture

Everybody relax, Europe is ready to stamp their feet, snivel, and throw another tantrum; that'll show Vald who's boss!

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 11:48 | 5270986 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

11 minutes of pure enjoyment!...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:11 | 5271049 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Commander Obama notches more civilian kills in his War on Grain Silos --

http://news.yahoo.com/u-led-raids-hit-islamic-state-north-east-062640867...

 

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:29 | 5271130 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Not accidental. Just a way to further undermine the Assad regime for the benefit of Greater Israel.

The "collateral damage magnet" list that now includes schools and wedding parties should have grain silos added to it.

An American, not US subject.

 

"The Pentagon should be called the Hexagon. If you know what I mean?!"

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:10 | 5271052 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

Iraqi base overrun by ISIS couple of days ago sent emergency calls for air support but none came. Despite all the air power from US and UK, the UK has flown for days without 'finding any targets' , no help came. Hundreds of soldiers died. This whole ISIS malarkey thus revealed as stitch up .

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:34 | 5271142 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Looks like the CIA's ISIS were on another funding run disguised as an attack.

And those soldiers were occupying part of Greater Israel and so were fair game.

An American, not US subject.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:07 | 5271058 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Good upcoming 3 semesters to keep European college women warm at UCLA

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:25 | 5271114 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

So the smartest leaders in Europe hope to sidestep the gas cutoff by increasing storage? A painful lesson is coming for them, that in energy markets, as in capital markets, it's not about stock, it's about flow.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 12:44 | 5271168 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

So far, Putin has sold gaz to anybody with the bucks to pay for it. If and when gaz comes to Europe from elsewhere, how is it going to beat Putin's nearer-by price, or are European citizens going to be told to pay more as it is their patriotic duty to support a bunch of Arabs?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:14 | 5272014 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

How much does a supply disruption, and the lawsuits over breached contracts cost?

Individuals aren't buying gas from Russia. 

It is companies in Europe that buy the gas from hubs, to which Russia is only one supplier- albeit the largest - and then resell it to their customers.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:05 | 5271237 vincenze
vincenze's picture

The Russian gas production during summer and winter is almost the same.

Gasprom used to pump gas into the vast Ukrainian underground storage facilities during summer months and then to pump it out during cold winter months. Not anymore.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:22 | 5271300 libertysghost
libertysghost's picture

In the end is it not a battle between which population is willing to "suffer" more?  The context for all of this has continued to be "can Europe survive the winter?"...but Russia doesn't have to start supplying Europe just because the seasons change.  Factories still run, the nights still get chilly in much of northern Europe in June...this seems like a fools errand if the EU/NATO/US counter cabal of oligarchs thinks their hairless arm Evian drinking hyper feminized prols will tough it out against the hardened Russian population.  That's just my take...

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:35 | 5271341 Otto Zitte
Otto Zitte's picture

Resistance is futile. You will be assimiiated.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 13:57 | 5271407 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

This must be the coming "Aysemetric warfare" the media warned us of, Russia turning off the power to people that don't pay their powerbills (the monsters), so will we be bombing that Detroit bankruptcy judge too for allowing water shut offs?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:12 | 5272005 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

I missed the part of the article that said anyone other than Ukraine had not paid.

Can you help me find it?

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:03 | 5271434 Kalevi
Kalevi's picture

I can't get this chart, Sweden has approx 40,000 NG customers, all supplied from Denmark!

How much Russian NG Denmark mixes in, I don't know but can't be that much.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 14:56 | 5271651 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

KIEV, Ukraine weather forecast?

High of 54 and A LOW OF 34.

You can thank the polar bears, Porky.

FU NATO

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 15:35 | 5271838 Gunter
Gunter's picture

Come on. We want sanctions for Putin. We don't want to do business with him.

Now he stops sending gas to Europe?

Yippie, we won!

Cheers from Europe, one of the last warm days today. I wish I could fast forward to May 2015

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:08 | 5271989 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Okay,

How many people here have threatened their clients with death, and kept the client?

None of the 'Greatness of Nations' bullshit.  HOW MANY?

Anyone?

Now... why would the emerging world want Dollars again?

And...why would Europe want to buy Russian gas, again?

 

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:09 | 5271996 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Either the majority of posters here are part of the Russian Army,

OR

They think that market transactions have only one side.

 

Either way does not bode well for the future.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 16:36 | 5272086 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Guys,

Companies that sell commodities like petrol and gas pre-buy the commodity - to the limit of their ability - when the price is low, with the intention of selling it at a higher price.

Hard to believe that people want to make money for their time and effort but they do.

When they do this for oil and gas it is done from supply hubs.  If you can store it economically such that the storage cost plus purchase price is less than the expected average sales price, then you do.

When energy is at the hub it is called 'capacity' - because it is not purchased.

When it is part of an existing (usually prepaid) contract it is called 'supply' - because it supplies a contract..

When a politician, such as Novak, says that he is going to disrupt your supply, he is telling you that he is not going to deliver something that he previously agreed to deliver. 

Because he is a politician, and not a private company, you can't even take him to court over it, or demand your money back.

This is what I mean when I say that governments are fundamentally Gangsters.  I say it because it is a literal description.

Novak - or more accurately Putin, because Novak had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do this - has now started stiffing his customers due to politics.

Now...  what do you expect to happen?

You hear a lot about how people will be brought to their knees, that they will learn not to fuck with the bear (which apparently means anything less than total submission).

But is this true?  How do YOU deal with it when someone stiffs you?

Do you write another contract?

Do you find another supplier?

Do you go bang on the supplier's door and demand your money?

Do you beg your supplier for forgiveness and promise to do whatever they tell you?

The transaction has two sides.

Gas is being used as a political tool to influence things that have nothing to do with gas.

Stop thinking about countries.  If it were your PERSONAL gas supplier to your PERSONAL home... what would you do?

Now does that jive with what some have said they expect Russia to do?  What they expect European countries to do?

There's nothing complicated here except the fantasies of the trolls.

Tue, 09/30/2014 - 22:21 | 5273565 theyjustcantstop
theyjustcantstop's picture

not a cheerleader, but russia has always honored their contracts, until the us, eu, nato coup of the ukraine govt., and the us, eu sanctions, this is just a russian sanction.

russia knows whos diverting nat. gas to other countries, ask poland.

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 00:27 | 5273930 talisman
talisman's picture

last year was exceptionally warm, leaving many countries with storage capacity abnormally high at the end of last year's heating season. The red portion of the last graph clearly shows this.  A cold winter last year would normally lead to heavier demand at this time of year for the coming winter.  Low current demand could easily be to just having to "top off" normal gas storage rather than any sinister throttling of delivery by Gazprom....If storage for their own use was not near the "full" mark, no country would have even contemplated reverse flow to Ukraine as they have recently done. 

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