Did The Winter War Just Begin? Russian Gas Supplies To Europe Plunge 15%, Ukraine Transit Slashed 54%

Tyler Durden's picture

Just a week ago, the Russian energy minister made the first public 'threat' of gas supply "throttling" disruptions to Europe but judging by the data that has just been released, it appears the 'throttling' has begun. Bloomberg reports that Russian gas supplies to Europe fell 15% year-over-year in Q3 - the most in over two years - as natural gas transit through Ukraine plunged 54% year-over-year. In 2013, Gazprom sent 60% of its supply via Ukraine pipelines, in August that dropped to 39%, and in September only 34%. Of course, Europe remains confident its storage efforts will buffer any "Winter War" disruptions, as we noted here, but as Citi warned previously, "if colder weather arrives, storage levels will be drained," and then there is the Spring (and German industry needs).

As Bloomberg reports,

Russian 3Q Gas Supplies to Europe Drop ~15% Y/y, Most in 2 Yrs

 

Export outside CIS in 3Q set to decline to ~34bcm from 40.4bcm last yr; biggest drop since at least 2Q 2012, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on preliminary data of Russian Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.

 

Exports fell 15% in 2Q 2012; decreased 25% in 3Q 2010

 

Russia Cuts Sept. Natgas Transit Via Ukraine 54% Y/y to 3.7Bcm

 

Russia’s natgas transit through Ukrainian pipelines continues decreasing; it dropped to ~3.7bcm this mo. vs 4.5bcm in Aug. and 8.1bcm in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on website data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, Energy Ministry.

 

Transit to EU ~3.5bcm in Sept. vs 4.4bcm in Aug.

 

Total Russian deliveries via Ukraine in Jan.-Sept. ~50bcm vs 62.5bcm yr earlier

 

Gazprom Cuts Sept. Transit Via Ukraine to 34% of Exports

 

Gazprom sent ~34% of Sept. natgas exports outside CIS using Ukrainian pipelines vs 39% last mo., ~60% in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, energy ministries of Ukraine, Russia.

 

Ukraine transshipped ~42% of Russian gas to Europe in Jan.-Sept. vs 51% last yr

 

UkrTransGaz ships Russia’s gas to borders w/ Moldova, 4 EU countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, which    delivers some volumes to Turkey

*  *  *

Who will be hurt most?

 

*  *  *

As we discussed before, Europe is confident it can withstand a disruption as it has been storing gas ahead of the winter.

However...

European storage facilities contained a record 75.7 billion cubic meters (2.7 trillion cubic feet) of gas yesterday, making them more than 91 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group.

 

“If colder weather arrives, then storage levels could well be drained,” Citigroup said.

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y3maxx's picture

...W W 3's Black Swan event now initiated.

Latina Lover's picture

Bring it on Vlad, give the Euro Surrender Monkeys a good taste of the winter, Russian Style.

 

I hope the Europeans will grow a pair and toss out the bribed, compromised, criminal cabal that claims to be their government. But I forget, the EU Government leaders are not elected, but appointed in secret.   Hmmm, time for pitchforks?

Latina Lover's picture

Hey Ukies,  jump if you are not a Moskal.  You'll need to do alot of hopping to stay warm this winter, LOL>

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Even if they make it thru this winter, what about next winter? Will Russia suddenly sell them gas next summer again?? Print some Euros, you can burn those.

Latina Lover's picture

There will be no next winter. The way the USSA keeps pushing, we will need  NBC radiation suits to survive.

BTW, notice how China and Iran are conducting joint naval manuvers and suddenly the HK democracy color movement comes alive? Coincidence.... I think not.

pods's picture

Mad Max is gonna have to be modified for a Winter Edition.
Assless chaps won't go over so well in the snow.

pods 

outamyeffinway's picture

Let us not forget why Japan declared war against the US (WWII). The US was cutting off their access to oil.....

Latina Lover's picture

Could you REALLY imagine todays Europeans declaing war on Russia?

Imagine Conchita Wurst singing to the troops....

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=conchita+wurst+-+rise+like+a...

 

BTW, I  wonder what happened to the USSA's shale  gas exports to the EU?  Could it be that the USSA adminstration was lying?

CrimsonAvenger's picture

Jesus. Once you see that, there's no way to unsee it.

knukles's picture

And you guys thought that the video of the do it yourself circumcision thing I posted yesterday was off putting.
No wonder the EU has no direction, no identity, no cohesiveness....

Gotta tell ya, this thing about the EU thinking they're stockpiling gas is similar to CA thinking they stockpiled water.

And to make it worse, the folks in CA when the reservoirs are almost empty are not even thinking of taking some heavy equipment and scraping out years and years of sediment to increase capacity when they can, when there's no fucking water.

Brilliance all the way around, boys!

Jugdish787's picture

I still havent forgotten that circumcision video...fucking disgusting, but I couldnt turn it off.

Renewable Life's picture

Knuk, I sit everyday in pure amazement as the people in CA continue to suck the water dry as fast as they can, without any connection to reality!  They really think this shit is going to get better and no one has to pay a cost or be inconvienced by this drought????

I try to explain to people who are upset about this, that there really isn't anything else the Kenyesian madmen can do actually, they cant upset the fragile order of big Ag and big housing and building developers!  Everyone is leveraged maybe 1000 to 1 in big ag and 250 to 1 in building developing!  The slightest disruption and billions are lost and the spiral into the abyss begins, evetything in the Kenyesian madhouse is priced for perfection!

Absolutely NO disruption can be acknowledged and allowed, even when the water is running dry and food cost are skyrocketing, nothing can be done, just the admittence of a problem could send housing prices plummeting, jobs would be cut by the hundreds of thousands, and off we go!

So the alternative is denial and you continue to take everything you can, while you can, and deal with it tommorow!

rejected's picture

Or wait until things are bad enough for the federale's to declare an emergency and the rest of the country gets to pay for their folly. Standard SOP,,, right?

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Most in CA are sucking off the welfare state and care less what the hell is going on. Californias, stay away from Texas!

Renewable Life's picture

LMFAO
Texas has more federal money, oil and gas, and military assets and connections to the federal government, then CA does!!!

I'm all for Texas becoming its own Country and I would be helping you do it any way I could, but cut the delusional bullshit about how "free" you currently are!! Start the seccession talk seriously and you'll find out where Texas fits in the federal welfare system!!!

Overfed's picture

Could be effective. The Russians would laugh themselves to death.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Shale gas are just vein stories.

pot_and_kettle's picture

 

 

But the Japanese sneak-attacked us!!!!!

 

 

/ducking shoes

 

lol

El Vaquero's picture

In 2013, the US was a net natural gas importer.

teslaberry's picture

are you fucking naive?

 

do you read history? do you think europeans couldn't be brought to heel with a well placed false flag. 

 

i have an idea. nuke berlin. nuke oslo, nuke any neoliberal capital and blame it on russia. yea. you think it cannot happen?

 

One of We's picture

+1 for incorporating "assless chaps" into post....

El Vaquero's picture

I've never seen a pair of chaps that wasn't assless.

Renewable Life's picture

Dont worry EU, America is here to save you!  We are currently building a Nat Gas/Oil pipeline that will connnect Canada with the gulf of Mexico and were spending billions building a fleet of Nat gas tankers and flying cargo tankers to take that gas and oil to the EU, so we can help you survive your battle against the evil Putin!!!

ohh wait, we aren't doing any of that??

Ohh shit, it looks like your on your own, sorry guys, maybe we can print some dollars and buy some axes from China for you?

Meremortal's picture

Now that peak oil and peak gas has once again been moved further into the future, the Russkies are just doing their part to make it happen artificially. They can do so, in limited areas. They will break themselves in the process, but that's fine with me.

A search here for "peak oil" reveals it dropped off the radar (even at ZH!) quite some time ago. 

 

As for Americans, the young should be concentrating on Peak College, a point which has already passed due to confiscatory tuition costs.

The old can concentrate on Peak Healthcare which is also in the past.

 

 

Ghordius's picture

"But I forget, the EU Government leaders are not elected, but appointed in secret."

let me see. the French and Romanian presidents are elected directly by the people, but this is irrelevant

the other 26 are appointed through a vote in parliament. because we elect Parliaments, which then appoint cabinets and prime ministers. and if a cabinet - which we call governments - don't behave the way the elected parliament wants, then it's recalled, and exchanged with one Parliament thinks is more appropriate

so you are completely right, Germany's Merkel is, for example, not elected, but appointed in a secret vote in Parliament, same as Italy's Renzi, or Britain's Cameron, etc. etc.

what you forget is that the system sounds so strange to you... because it allows lots of political parties. how many parties allows the system you are accustomed to?

further, "the boss" is not the Prime Minister, it's Parliament. that's why it's an appointment. it means "hold that power, but behave or we'll take it back from you"

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Who appoints the Commission?  And if a Commissioner doesn'T behave, who has the power to take things back? 

Who is the EU's boss?  Who gives them their power?  How many levels "appointments" does one have to go backwards to find, say, the Commission's democratic legitmacy?  

Describe how the above system related to Ireland in 2010/2011, France and the Netherlands in 2005 and Greece and Italy in 2012.  

Lastly, if you could describe the immunities members of the EC enjoy, and whether they last for life or for just their tenure.  Moreover, could you expound upon the tax rates the members of the EC are liable for, when compared to the rest of the "Europen" population.  

I'll wait.   

Ghordius's picture

now you are switching from how the 28 parliamentary systems of the countries function to how the EU functions, but ok

yes, if a Commissioner does something that the elected EU parliament does not like, the EU parliament has the power to send him or her home. anytime

who gave that EU Parliament the power to do so? well, it's directly elected by the people. so it is indirect, but not further then once removed

but the EU's boss is not it's P, it's the countries, which in EU "parlance" are the "masters of the treaties", and are represented by the EU Council (where you find the PMs and Ms)

and that's why the EU Council proposes the commissioners. but the EU Parliament has to accept or reject them (and lately "forced" it's "own lead candidate" for EC boss)

let's pick Italy 2012, for example: Prime Minister Berlusconi was losing support in Parliament. the Italian President made Monti "Senator for life" (the Italian Constitution gives him the power to make 5 of them) and proposed him to Parliament, and so Monti became Prime Minister thanks to a majority in Parliament. Later, PM Letta had a majority, but that majority decided to send him home and appointed Renzi in his stead

meanwhile, every immunity can be rescinded by a Parliament

and the whole 30'000 strong Brussels thing has a special tax rate, not only the EC. so? the US gives the Prez a tax-free income, too. the whole idea of taxing a state servant that is anyway paid through tax-payer's money is a thing you should think through

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I get the feeling you are dodging the "meat" of what I am going after.  Maybe I am not explaining myself clearly enough?  

I'll try it like this;

In your educated opinion, has the "EU" ever not just ignored the democratic will of the people, but acted directly in contradiction to the will of the people?  

 

Ghordius's picture

you have no idea how difficult it is to answer such a question in this format. I'd have to write a whole book to answer you. do you want to box me in a simplistic "no, never"?

I could point to you at least a dozen hard cases where a national parliament went against the apparent democratic will of the people, for example, and was immediately reelected. you forget in your way of putting things the whole world of political compromise. the world is swirling grey, not in stark blacks and whites

the democratic will of the people is constantly shifting on many issues. just note how long the tribulation went in Germany from pro-nuclear to anti-nuclear, for example

take the Alternative für Deutschland party as example. their core issue was EUR-criticism. yet they are on one side frustrated by the potential "no" to the EUR, which in Germany seems to be around 25% according to AfD itself. yet on the other side they found other (neglected) issues on the conservative side which they find worthwhile, and are so on a path of becoming a political platform for those other issues. the reason is simple, if there was a referendum in Germany about the EUR, it would be a resounding "yes"

take Russian gas as a different example. tell me what the democratic will of the people is, about Russian gas. my take: "it's complicated"

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Gordo, 

You dodged the question.  I did not ask you to equivocate EU actions to that of vast unnamed parliments the world over.  

The reason Germany is so infatuated with the EU is two fold;

1) If you aren't a fervant EU supporter, you are a Nazi.
2) Foreign-imposed post-war guilt.

Sure, its complicated.  But, simultaneously, the EU is acting like Spain and Ukraine are and have.  They are all for democracy as long as the people vote to continue the status-quo, when popular opinion changes, and it works against the status-quo - the EU becomes very authoritarian.  

 

Ghordius's picture

Haus, I'm hiding behind the fig leaf of limited space. I find it's a quite big fig leaf, that allows me to shoot back a

you like populist messages even when they are not supported by facts, just for the "awake the masses" effect

but it's a fig leaf nevertheless, and I feel a bigger one then the "masses have to be awaken" one

So I ask: why are Hessians infatuated with Federal Germany in the first place? Why can't Hessen be sovereign instead of semi-sovereign?

I completely agree with you. The "Sir, You Are A Nazi" card is used too often, in Germany. Nevertheless, Vae Victis still applies. WE LOST THE WARS, period. Note the Hessian Constitution of 1946 mandating "Völkerverständigung" and damning (imperialistic) warfare (and also prohibiting me from ever be elected in Hessen, but that is a different story)

I completely disagree with you on the EU being authoritarian, though. See here my comment on Rajoy. It's Spain and the UK being the most fervent anti-independence movement bashers... with words (then the UK allowed a referendum). And the EU-org has only words, no police and no army, remember?

I find that authoritarian should be kept as a label for the police baton and the army machine gun

as you write, "when popular opinion changes". The People are The Sovereign. And The Sovereign changes it's mind, from time to time. Meanwhile, Hessians want to be Germans, and Germans want to be in the EU and use the EUR, generally speaking, in the same way as Catalans seem (no referendum yet) to want independence from Spain... but aren't against the EU or the EUR

try to reboot your system: City of Frankfurt, Bundesland Hessen, Federal Republic of Germany, EU, The West. Which is "good" and which is "bad"? Who does tax you? Who does police you? Who has an army? Where is popular opinion situated? Who steers what? Realize that Hessen has a vote in the Bundesrat. Realize that Germans are very, very federal in their political thinking (no, not the East Germans), for them Germany having a vote in the EU Council is a continuation of their federative principles

what do Hessians want?

Duffy's picture

That thing racing past you was "the point."

 

Your argument distills to the idea that there is democracy in America, because you can choose between A and B, with no regard to who controls A and B.

 

Good grief, man - there's a forest behind that tree....

El Vaquero's picture

You mean that in the US, it really doesn't matter which candidate wins because the candidates themselves are either rigged or get rigged once K Street gets ahold of them?

 

Whowoulddathunkit?

Anarchy 99's picture

BS, latina is talking about the unelected in Brussels.

flapdoodle's picture

To me the epiphany about Europe arrives when Berlusconi is sent packing by the EU Overlords and replaced with...

...an alumnus of Goldman Sachs.

Just like that.

y3maxx's picture

News Out

Finland, Swededn Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria Declare War Against.....

........USSA.

Latina Lover's picture

Who cares if Finland, Sweden Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria  declare war against the USSA? A few NSA wiretaps and pictures of  young boys sacrificed by certain leaders and they will slither away. Only compromised and bribed EU presidents/PMs would have acted so stupidly against Russia.

Ignatius's picture

"Long coats" as sleeping attire.

Brown Brother's picture

Going long Burlington coat factory.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

EU Fall/Winter Fashion = Long Coats, Long Dresses, Gloves, and...

Boots & pants, and boots & pants...

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

The democracy promoters have taken a shit on several parts of africa, and many parts of the middles east. Afghanistan. Now they have obviously moved their bowels over to China where they are moving their bowels on Honk Kong.

 

It never gets non face palm worthy when one mulls the thought that the folks WE elect are the bad guys.

NotApplicable's picture

You mean that YOU elect. I'm not that evil, nor stupid enough to ignore said evil.

Anusocracy's picture

You get to elect any horse in the stable as long as it's the one by the door.

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

I'm not part of We either hard core dwayne. take your moped and go picket another post. I'm on your team.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8tfuBIutLI

Peter Pan's picture

I might be getting older but I can see better than ever. I can now see black swans all the way to the horizon.

Eireann go Brach's picture

Let's see what damage our idiot in chief has caused so far?

Pissing off Putin and putting half of Europe in the cold. Check.

Continuing to whack the hornets nest in the middle east which in turn is making everything more unsafe in the US. Check 

Speeding up de-dolarization. check

Obamacare, ruining healthcare and the biggest job cutter in US history. check

Etc

etc

etc

Latina Lover's picture

Obama's too distracted by Reggies Rear to pay attention to anything else.  Just ask Michael/Michelle/Wookie.