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ADP Private Payrolls Rise Modestly To 4-Year Average
Despite Mark Zandi's promises that all is well in the US economy, ADP had dropped (and missed) two months in a row prior to today's print but a very small rise and beat this month (213k vs 205k expected and 205k previous) shows some stability. Of note is that this print is no better than the average ADP job change over the last four years. On the bright side small businesses add the most jobs while medium-sized businesses added the least. Of potential note to this somewhat 'meh' jobs data, yesterday's Consumer Confidence data showed a disappointing plunge in Jobs-Plentiful vs Jobs-Not-Plentiful which suggests Friday's all-important payrolls print may not be as exuberant as expected.
Some other details: goods-producing employment rose by 58,000 jobs in September, up from 42,000 jobs gained in August. The construction industry added 20,000 jobs over the month, below last month’s gain of 23,000. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 35,000 jobs in September, the highest total in that sector since May 2010.
Service-providing employment rose by 155,000 jobs in September, down from 160,000 in August. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 29,000 jobs in August, down from 37,000 in August. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 38,000, up from August’s 30,000. The 5,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down slightly from last month’s number.
And while nobody actually takes the ADP report seriously, far many reasons but also because it is a seasonally-adjusted black box, in which nobody but ADP knows what the actual unadjusted data is, here is what the report said:
"September’s jobs added number marks the sixth straight month of employment gains above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “It’s a positive sign for the economy to see the 200,000-plus trend continue.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Job gains remain strong and steady. The pace of job growth has been remarkably similar for the past several years. Especially encouraging most recently is the increasingly broad base nature of those gains. Nearly all industries and companies of all sizes are adding consistently to payrolls.”
And Zandi's #timestamp ahead of this Friday's NFP report, when asked on CNBC why he did not revise his August data lower: "BLS is wrong." Hello pot, meet the black kettle. Also, let's wait and see just how "wrong" the BLS is...
Small rise and beat shows escape velocity still a long way off.
An alternative perspective.:
The breakdown:
The ADP headline:
Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
Finally, while ADP has zero predictive capacity to the actual NFP number, and is thus worthless, its greatest value added comes in creating infographics. Like this one.
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ADP just said not only more jobs but better paying ones. Seems like they are working on something with CNBS for next week to report wages. DNC must be pumping cash through these organizations just before the elections as if the political ads aren't already bad tv. Skittle shitting unicorns forward!
Not too hot, not too cold. Just right.
Muddling through is the new killing it in 'Merka, Fuck yeah!
pods
I have a question here that I need clarity on please.
Are Business Temps not currently working a contract still considered employed even if they arent recieving a paycheck? Becuase that category was really hot.
barry wants to win his mid terms, even though the secret service forgets to do their job when an intruder/ex-con and barry are in the same elevator - LMFAO
can't do the knoll and limo gig - it's been done before
so ADP pumps the storyline for barry
Getting very close to the election. Obama's coat tails must hold the senate.
For the next month it's all rosy so the DNC wins.
Methinks they're getting ready to propagandize er report about the growing manufacturing renaissance in America. Let the propaganda roll forth and smother all common sense and reason. You gotta love big government
The US already has captured the manufacturing sector of the "B's".
Bonds, Bombs, and Bullshit.
pods
Part time bitchez!
...and in other news...Dallas Ebola dude (Ded) apparently wandered around for 4 days with symptoms...even after visiting the ER prior to be being quarantined.
http://bloom.bg/1poVMw3
Just waiting for second case, then its game on
Republicans will win in a landslide, they can afford the body suites with oxygen masks to go vote
worked across from that presby hosp back in the 70's lived at golf lakes there off of Central. Ahh that Chili's had the best food back then before it was a chain and we dance at 6 frogs over Texas. At any rate, ebola is here and no one was smart enough to stop flights from central Africa for a while just as a precaution. Now we're all one big science experiment, er propaganda experiment. I wouldn't get on an airplane right now for shit. No one knows how long the virus lives on a fomite and just for shits and grins read about ebola in monkey experiment back in the 60's in Virginia. There is actually reason to believe it may be air transmitted, to say nothing of aersolized when you sneeze. My biggest concern is more ammo, or respirator. I'm going for the ammo. good luck fellow lab rats.
At any rate, ebola is here and no one was smart enough to stop flights from central Africa for a while just as a precaution.
Political correctness trumps dead bodies.
Hope and Change bitchez
There's a safe, calculated estimate....
Too bad that the basic economic fundamentals do not seem to support these numbers.
162k at best.
My question is why would anyone work or bother looking for work to save fiat currency which is worthless and you can get 0.00025% on when you save it? Incentive to work is now gone.