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The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2014 YTD
When it comes to asset returns, September, and the entire third quarter for that matter, belonged to Asia.
Technically, it belonged to Asian central banks, because while the rest of the world generated weak returns in the past month, the two best performing asset classes were the Nikkei (+5.4%) and the Shanghai Composite (+6.8%), both of which soared on speculation that the local central banks would promptly conduct even more monetary easing. This was most obvious in the Nikkei where while in local currency terms the market is soaring, as is the one in Argentina and Venezuela, denominated in USD, the Nikkei is still down in 2014, performing worse than gold.
In USD terms however, those long the Nikkei have lost in purchasing power everything they have gained in capital appreciation.
On the other side, however, the biggest losers so far at least are clear: Corn, Silver, and Wheat. In terms of fiat-denominated assets, the Russian stock market is the worst performing in 2014, with Greece breathing down its next.
Some more color from DB:
September turned out to be a fairly weak month for most asset classes even if equities and fixed income are still generally in positive territory for the year. Indeed screening our usual monthly performance review charts, the Nikkei (+5.4%) and the Shanghai Composite (+6.8%) were the only standout performers in September. Japanese equities benefitted from a weaker JPY with the Dollar enjoying its best quarterly performance since Q2 2008. The strength.
Staying on equities, the S&P 500 was down over 1% in September despite a landmark 2,000 crossing during the month. Across DM equities, the S&P 500 (+8.3%) is still a relative outperformer against Stoxx 600 (+7.6%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.2%). Turning to EM, the MSCI EM index was down -7.4% during the month. Greece and Bovespa were the other key underperformers in equities. The former was impacted by renewed political uncertainties around Greece’s aid package plans whilst the latter saw a completed unwind of its outperformance in August as election polls suggested diminished hopes of leadership change in the country. Elsewhere the Heng Seng was down 6.9% in September to post its worst month since May 2012 as sell flows intensified on the back of the pro-democracy protests at the end of the month.
Fixed income didn’t quite benefit from the broader risk off with Treasuries and Bunds down -0.6% and -0.2% on the month. Credit markets also had a bad month from a total return standpoint with HY underperforming IG across the board. Following a brief reprieve in August, US HY actually lost more in September (-2.6%) than it did in July (-1.7%) and went on to post its worst quarter since Q3 2011 when the USA was stripped off its AAA rating and European Sovereign were struggling. September was second worst month for EM bonds this year largely led by weakness in Latam whilst Asia outperformed on a relative basis. YTD Asian bonds have outperformed Latam and EEMEA bonds by around 400bps and 800bps respectively.
And visually, September:
Third Quarter
2014 YTD:
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Shit, who needs thngs like brent, corn or wheat...
No, the world clearly needs much more paper. Long trees, ink, and electrons. (Don't be negative on electrons!)
Silver has just been monkey hammered all month. Sub $17 is just silly
Endless paper contracts in a fraud market can do that.
I view it as a fire sale, kind of like a K-Mart Blue Light Special...
Silver is getting "tail wagging the dog-ed" to death.
Totally amazing how easily they are able to do it.
just think of it as an opportunity...
"Long trees, ink, and electrons. (Don't be negative on electrons!)"
Particle Sale: Protons 10¢ Electrons 10¢ Neutrons - No Charge.
Seriously just buy the us dollar and us assets - you know what they say, they aren't making any more of those. Oh, wait ....
Those who drink "Market Maker" whiskey, make the rules and pick the winners. It's a small Club, and you ain't in it.
Nothing's gonna change till kneecaps or heads roll for the Top 0.01%.
Sheeple/"Christians" don't do a damn thing but moan and bleat, as their mission in life is to accept their 'Blessings' (obedience, poverty) and to "Turn the other cheek" (indignation and financial sodomy). They are the fools, knaves and slaves upon whom this house of Ponzi is built. Maybe you should pray to the Viking Gods, or emulate Ragnar Lothbrok, instead of a murdered hippie Rabbi who was deified by the Romans ("JC/INRI") -- because it became useful for Emperor Constantine -- and whose "Return" has always been "Any time now" decade after decade, generation after generation, for >1900 years.
* Made from Chosen/Exceptional/Select Ingredients, and (hidden-)hand crafted with a Proprietary Distillation process.
/sarc
Cheers gold/silver bugs and farmers! Your time will come.
Honestly, we got a very good price for our soybeans this year. As far as silver goes, it's in all those smart bombs we are dropping on the ME.
*Sigh*
I have stopped banging the table for gold, as I do not think that impatient people will hold gold through big declines like we see periodically. Nor does everyone need gold (for example, those with no children arguably need no gold).
I just BTFD. But, if someone buys because I wrote that it is the BEST, and the price goes down, ahh.....
Live and learn I guess.
i think the true stackers, namely those who are awake to the reality of the fed and all the unfortunate corollaries that result from the existence of a central bank, stack all the way down.
also, im pretty young and have no kids. why do i arguably need no gold? what are my other options? invest in the clearly manipulated stock or real estate markets? hold cash? debt is paid. dont need a house, and i certainly dont need FRNs.
im pretty young and have no kids. why do i arguably need no gold? what are my other options
Might I suggest silver? I think it'll return as high a rate as gold, over time.
I can't stack fast enough!
I can, you can send some over to me.
While we are looking at best performing assets, Saudis are doing "oil for arable land" deals around Asia and Africa.
They dont feel comfortable holding financial assets going up in value?
Or buy produce with USDs?
Knowing if and when SHTF, they would be too far away to maintain possession.
Someone with a good memory sent this to me. It's mindblowing.
"And as we pointed out after the latest FOMC meeting, we are now in a new regime, where gold benefits more than stocks on further currency
devaluation. Period."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/david-tepper-balls-wall-long-unlevered-fed
gold closed at $1296 that day (-7% total return then till now) and the S&P500 closed at 1148 that day (+72% total return then till now).
Now who was that beneficiary from money printing from here "period"?It's a club fonz, always has been...
I knew I picked the wrong frat...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ
Lulz rite?
"Markets" are BS. iCon can move them with tweets.
All the chart and analysis by all the media are there just to make it seem respectable, lipstick on a pig. To explain the unexplainable.
All your charts and analysis are belongs to us.
According to the very predictable Laws of Human Nature... Some will adapt to change or embrace it wholeheartedly (before others do).
But most (even on ZH) will persist in their ingrained habits and views -- per Einstein's definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over, but expecting or hoping for a different outcome.
IOW: Those who go along with the Fed (their CB), are destined to make money. Those who do not, are destined to lose it. And of the two (the CB or the Player), guess who can afford to lose "money" longer, stay liquid longer? Your daddy and Tyler should've told you this -- no matter how much or how long either one may criticize their CB. Four years of PM in a Sideways market, while stocks have climbed. WOW!
I think that Fonz and others (Kirk) have finally awakened to this Reality: "Don't Fight The Fed". Instead, IMHO: "Leverage the Fed, and hedge your winnings".
can't tell, is gold positive or negative on the ytd? wop wop wah
Deflation bitchez! All asset classes save stocks are screaming it right now.
Isn't this fun. Real stuff down, paper up.
I wonder how I can grow financial instruments on the farm?
Its a misdirection, a headfake.
Herding sheeple into paper assets, while buying physical assets on the sly.
That's the whole idea when you start a "fiat" currency.
Well, it could have been worse. I could have went full retard on wheat futures..
Just last month, I was wondering to myself, "Spanish bonds or Silver?". I always get it wrong.... :( What the hell is wrong with me?
i see the problem. need to update your name. creekogoldstein should do the trick.
Thanks. I will try that. Nothing else seems to work.
"Just last month, I was wondering to myself, "Spanish bonds or Silver?". I always get it wrong.... :( What the hell is wrong with me?"
Your problem may be that you are thinking rationally in an irrational market...stop doing that stuff.
"Never before did I realize that mental illness could have the aspect of power, power. Think of it: perhaps the more insane a man is, the more powerful he could become. Hitler an example. Fair makes the old brain reel, doesn't it?”
? Ken Kesey, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
Another very good suggestion! Note to self: act with irrational exhuberance! :)
They say a political party dies when it begins believing its own lies. And that’s what’s happening to the economic leadership of this country, locked in the lie that we have been in this recovery for years.
It’s a lie; the economy is crushed with the big banks extracting through inflation and printing and bailouts the lifeblood that would have given America productive growth.
Janet Yellen and the rest of the banker stooges at the Fed are ruthlessly and mercilessly stealing America blind.
Now, after the Goldman Sachs tapes, we can put faces and names to the tyranny - not only as to who owns the Federal Reserve but to who owns the justice system.