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Ebola-Stricken West African Economies Are Crashing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We warned five weeks ago of the potential economic damage that the Ebola virus could do to West African economies, and now it appears The IMF, The World Bank, and the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization have warned that Liberia and other West African economies, as WaPo reports, begun a frightening descent into economic hell. Fear that "that people would abandon the fields and factories, that food and fuel would become scarce and unaffordable, and that the government’s already meager capacity to help, along with the nation’s prospects for a better future, would be severely compromised" are no longer scenarios - they are real! Annual inflation rates have doubled, fuel sales are down 35%, Liberia's productivity is down 50-75%, and "micro-trade" financing is "completely depleted."

The IMF warns “In addition to exacting a heavy human toll, the Ebola outbreak is having a severe economic and social impact, and could jeopardize the gains from a decade of peace.”

With WHO and CDC expecting a worst case scenario now, the $809 million collapse in GDP across Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia is stunning...

 

As The Washington Post reports,

Three recent reports from international organizations that seem to bear out the worst-case scenarios of months ago: that people would abandon the fields and factories, that food and fuel would become scarce and unaffordable, and that the government’s already meager capacity to help, along with the nation’s prospects for a better future, would be severely compromised.

 

They are no longer scenarios. They are real. While these trends have been noted anecdotally, the cumulative toll is horrific.

 

The basic necessities of survival in Liberia — food, transportation, work, money, help from the government — are rapidly being depleted, according to recent reports by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

 

...

 

The International Monetary Fund said in a separate report that restrictions on public transport, internal travel and trade are burdening the country’s ability to distribute the food that is available.

 

The combination is driving up food prices rapidly, said the IMF even as “panic buying” is boosting demand, according to the World Bank. The IMF is projecting an inflation rate of 13.1 percent by year’s end, compared with 7.7 percent before the Ebola epidemic started taking its toll.

 

Transportation has been badly disrupted, one indicator being a drop of between 20 and 35 percent in fuel sales.

 

The services sector, about half of Liberia’s economy, employing about 45 percent of the work force, has experienced a drop in turnover of 50 to 75 percent, the World Bank says.

 

Savings and loan programs, called “susu,” that finance “micro-trade” and small businesses — especially those run by women — have been “completely depleted,” with participants no longer able to pay their debts, said the FAO.

 

Projections for short-term and long-term economic growth are getting ratcheted downward, with the worst-case estimates nothing short of catastrophic. The World Bank, looking at 2014 alone, projected a reduction in growth in Liberia from 5.9 percent to 2.5 percent, a plunge that would be considered calamitous in any country. In 2015, under its most dire but altogether realistic scenario, Liberia’s output could decrease by nearly 12 percent in 2015.

 

Projections for inflation are moving upward, with the IMF estimating an inflation rate of 13.1 percent by year’s end, compared with 7.7 percent the year before.

 

On top of it all, the revenue coming in to the Liberian government has dropped sharply, by 20 percent, Liberia’s foreign minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan told the United Nations earlier this week. “Consequently, our ability to provide for basic social services and continue to fund key development projects are significantly diminished.

*  *  *
“The Ebola epidemic is washing away years of progress and hard work,” said the FAO in its Sept. 23 report.

 

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Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:48 | 5277483 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

The coming US economic crash will either be blamed on Ebola or ISIS terrorism.

Banksters will already be on their tropical islands.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:54 | 5277515 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Western African economies. LOL! That's hilarious.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:00 | 5277543 Flagit
Flagit's picture

As opposed to not crashing before the outbreak?

New headline should read "Stricken West African Economies Still Crashing"

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:05 | 5277551 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

they're pobably on their islands'...

no, parasites need sheeples to survive..

they'll stay...just like in the dark ages...looking important...

still exploiting...

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:06 | 5277561 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Coming soon to a banana republic near you.

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:31 | 5277797 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

"Western African economies. LOL! That's hilarious."

Yup, you're no one if you're not trillions in debt.

http://www.creditloan.com/infographics/a-global-history-of-debt-by-regio...

Thu, 10/02/2014 - 00:43 | 5278730 Four chan
Four chan's picture

^ donald trump approved.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:01 | 5277545 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

easy way to cover up the ponzi...

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:08 | 5277567 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If that's code for "West African OIL Economies", then I'd like to know how this effects it's oil exports to the US and to China.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:16 | 5277592 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I can't say that pulling oil of out the ground can really count as an economy. Not with how cheaply this oil is being bought for thanks to the Paper Brigade. Those Africans are not living like the Saud's are, so they are likely getting ripped off.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:12 | 5277571 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

NidStyles
Hilarious as this statement. "The Ebola epidemic is washing away years of progress and hard work." Do they have fewer slums and open sewers now than a few years ago I wonder? Bush meat, it's what's for dinner.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 21:11 | 5277920 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

hehe..funny maybe, but look at this, some trader gave the finger to EBOLA today,

he thinks the market has bottomed?

Big trader took the put call spread today a whopping $2 Million dollar trade! HOLY HELL!

You can see here ==> http://bit.ly/1B4K0wk

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 21:17 | 5277948 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

They have economies???

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:55 | 5277518 Slave
Slave's picture

It's okay everybody, our Kenyan just wants us to be more like Africa.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:33 | 5277644 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

West Africa is one of the most amazing places I have ever been,...looking forward to go visit again. Here is some video clips of my past travels to West Africa...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAaOYjHb9K0

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:01 | 5277544 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Parents pulling kids out of school in Dallas

http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/10/01/6165611/officials-say-only-one-e...

 

Airline stocks taking a hit as they scramble to find out which one them Patient X flew to get over here.  Corp/Fed/Gov knows.....but they're not telling the public.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2776786/U-S-airlines-contact-gov...

 

Here is what Patient X looks like.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2776965/Schoolchildren-exposed-U...

 

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:14 | 5277587 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Was it rayciss of me to think that the infected "gentleman" from Africa looked African?

I mean he could have looked Dutch or French. Right?

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:56 | 5277699 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Black Irish.  There.....problem solved.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:24 | 5277786 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

HIPPA laws not applicable here?

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:28 | 5277792 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Under Obama NO laws are applicable here.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:10 | 5277575 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

ISIS, Walking Dead and the harsh 2014/15 winter.. yep won't be their fault

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:48 | 5277840 junction
junction's picture

"Banksters will already be on their tropical islands."

Banksters are booking seats on their clients' super yachts. 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:51 | 5277495 reader2010
reader2010's picture

The War with China got a quiet start in the Chinese Africa and now men in Hong Kong demand blow jobs. Go figure.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:51 | 5277497 F-Tipp
F-Tipp's picture

As an aside, the IMF should be describing price increases as price increases and not an increase in the inflation rate.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:50 | 5277498 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

Yeah, but this is Africa. Crashing to the bottom isn't all that big of a deal. They didn't have very far to go.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:12 | 5277577 Flagit
Flagit's picture

"African Banker Jumps From Roof Of Grass Hut"

 

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:42 | 5277662 tbd108
tbd108's picture

Flagit: If I ever need a comedy writer, I'll think of you first.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:53 | 5277512 limacon
limacon's picture

The following scenario can be avoided . Think of it as good training for when Ebola or something similar jumps countries and continents.

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2013/04/social-collapse-to-below-family-le...

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:54 | 5277517 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Sure enough, the escape plan for the Fed is in full effect. They will blame the collapse on the Ebola Boggeyman.... Rotten bastards will hang for this.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:56 | 5277526 Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Remember all the "investing in Africa" is the next bull market crap that came out of Wall Street?

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:21 | 5277602 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

And from ZH writers like Doug Casey and Simon Black too.

Of course they also recommend(ed) places like Argentina, Australia, Thailand, the Baltic states, Ukraine, Hong Kong...  IOW: All the "Happening places", with lots of Sizzle.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 18:56 | 5277528 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

owebomba will invite them all to come live here in our (formerly) beautiful stateside

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:01 | 5277546 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Possible cure for Ebola, and other diseases you can make at home. I am not kidding. Watch the video and judge for yourself.

Bob Beck Protocol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkiX0jJJozk

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:21 | 5277606 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Can't ya give us the cliff note version? I mean, if its 2 hours long to understand the cure, many of us will die before watching that much info .

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 21:29 | 5277741 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Executive summary:

In 1990 two scientists at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York, discovered that it is possible to destroy the AIDS virus using an electrical current of 50 - 100 micro amperes (millionths of an amp).

They went on to get a patent on an elaborate blood cleansing device, suitable for hospital use (Patent  No. 5,188,738 )

Physicist and electronics expert, Bob Beck, figured out how to make a simple, non invasive, hand held device that did the same thing.

By wearing this device an hour or two a day,  patients were cured of AIDS, hepatitis, chronic fatigue syndrome, Epstein Barr, and many other diseases, for the cost of a single 9 volt transistor radio battery.

A mild electric current was found to be effective against all kinds of bacteria, viruses, mold spores, parasites, and pathogens but harmless to healthy blood cells.

Later he invented an electromagnetic device that killed infections in lymph nodes and  places the blood electrifier did not reach (also non invasive).

Still later, they added silver colloid and ozonated water to the protocol.

He went around lecturing and distributing the plans and specifications for these devices free of charge in the mid to late 1990s.

Many people have built and used them with success, including me.

You can build the devices for about $75 each or buy them ready made for $250 to $350 from SOTA Instruments in Canada.

I can't claim any dramatic cures because I was not sick in the first place. But have cured colds in 5 or 10 minutes, and promoted healing of minor cuts.

I sincerely believe that no one needs to die of  Ebola if this treatment is applied at the first sign of illness.

Thu, 10/02/2014 - 12:33 | 5280540 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Thanks bud

I will look into.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:01 | 5277547 gwar5
gwar5's picture

If Ebola don't getcha, famine will. What a wretched situation.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:02 | 5277549 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Reminds of a song that goes like this.... 

Alice Cooper - Dead Babies

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tCMWZtl_kKk

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:24 | 5277780 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Forgot my sarcasm tag. I know how sensitive you liberals can be if the dog whistle isn't blown.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:05 | 5277555 The Duke of New...
The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

Ebola arriving just in time for the end of QE ... hhhmmmmmmm.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:28 | 5277566 Flagit
Flagit's picture

OK, not to spread fear or disinformation, but when asked what to do about the current situation in West Africa, Larry Silverstein just said, "pull it".

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:24 | 5277783 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

And stuck out his finger?

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:15 | 5277589 robnume
robnume's picture

There's been a decade of peace in Africa? I'm not sure that Africans would agree with that statement. Get the fuck out of here, IMF!

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:18 | 5277598 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

Perfect timing don't ya think? Epidemic blamed on crashing the corrupt system.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:18 | 5277600 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

And once again We Are The World. God damned treadmill.

Paging Bob Geldof, please assemble your non-pedophile performers in the Green Room.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:25 | 5277623 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I miss the CDC bath salt zombie apocalyptic fearmongering storyline, it was by far more entertaining. 

Ebola scare tactics are rather boring.

;=)

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:15 | 5277754 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

AAAHhhh...but just wait !!!    Ebola is a RNA virus.  Thus it takes on the genetic material of the host to evolve so it can spread further.  So.....a bath salt zombie also gets infected with Ebola.   AND.......TURNS INTO A REAL ZOMBIE.

That idea is Open Source.  Anybody here can take it and run with it with my blessing.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 20:50 | 5277845 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Pharmaceutical companies are waiting with baited breath. Ask CDC about how many H1N1 egg vaccinations they had to shit can over processing fuck ups.

The entire global outbreak of epidemic fears disappeared. Shortly after, bath salts. The comedy continues.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

Someone always needs to demonstrate causes to receive new budgetary funding by taxpayers.

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 21:08 | 5277907 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

HHmmmm......they were pretty quick to fly those health workers from Africa to the CDC.

Either that.....or DoD needed more samples for a new bio-weapon project.   Hey...I guess EVERYBODY is angling for more money....whether it's out in the open.....or black budget.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 19:52 | 5277684 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

I feel as though certain outbreaks (SARS, Flu, etc..) are manufactured to breed complacency, forms of misdirection, if you will. I'm not sure an Ebola outbreak is something that humanity wants to fuck with. Maybe they do, sure seems like it.

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 21:06 | 5277901 adr
adr's picture

I wasn't worried about SARS or H1N1. Everyone seemed to be panicked and people were talking crazy. I looked at what it was and didn't see a widespread issue. Something about it just seemed overblown.

My dad was freaking out over SARS because he worked for a Japanese company with people coming from Asia every day. I told him it would be nothing. He doesn't even know the fist thing about Ebola.

Ebola scares the shit out of me. It is because people are not panicked and the media seems to be making it out to be nothing to worry about. It is precisely when they downplay the probability of something that you know the chances of it happening is near 100%.

 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 21:46 | 5278049 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

This is another overblown crisis to justify a numbers game for future entitlement as a agency to maintain employment growth.

 

I swear on my mother's grave. You investigate further. 

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 22:35 | 5278260 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

If the New American Century protocol fails after 9/11. We need to bring back the fear of Britain Black death syndrome salted with newly developed bubonic virus threats.

The money changers will lose this time around, we have developed assult rifles that can hit a target 2 miles away. For kicks and giggles, a drone can be reprogrammed to send a missile to your military industrial complex residential home. 

President Eishower was correct, beware of the internal dangers of the United States of America. Lastly, when we grew up, there was no fence or danger walking around the White House. Keep that in mind. 

Ask Obama to open the WH fence border. See the comedy?

 

Thu, 10/02/2014 - 13:08 | 5280698 ebear
ebear's picture

"Ask Obama to open the WH fence border. See the comedy?"

President Obama.  Tear down this wall!

Wed, 10/01/2014 - 23:26 | 5278462 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

It seems Americans are trying to put Ebola into the dustbin as just another also ran or nuisance thing that when kept at a distance is of little interest. Unfortunately this may soon change as the virus is picking up "critical mass." 

By critical mass I'm referring to the point where enough people are infected with the virus that it can sustain a chain reaction and expand out of control. The bad news is Ebola may have already reached critical mass and be impossible to contain. The implications of this are massive and it could change everything. More on why we should be very concerned in the article below.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/ebola-may-have-reached-critical-m...

Thu, 10/02/2014 - 01:38 | 5278807 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Wash your hands after taking a Obama shit on your personal porcelain throne.

 

A new CDC alarmist society alert always crops up after flushing of toilet. New liberalism crack infested capitalism toilet paper will be offered to protect you under mass marketing disquise. You shall buy the product or risk dying.

Thu, 10/02/2014 - 01:25 | 5278789 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

I don't know what word to use.

""Crashing"" does not seem to fit. 

Depressions are -10% GDP over any time frame.

-75%? That is apocalyptic.

Even Japan only had a -35% print from WW2 and they were nuked back to 1840.

That is Photoguy Bad.

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