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Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses Into "Confirmed Slowdown"
Just 2 short weeks ago, Goldman nervously admitted that possibly perhaps maybe their Global Leading Indicator was indicating a "slowdown" was coming, but remained hopeful that the rest of the month would see data pick up and prove them wrong. Now that the final data has been released for the various components of the index, the 'exuberant' recovery of the last few months has been massively revised lower. As Goldman itself notes, the September Final GLI came in at 2.6% YoY, providing a clear signal of "Slowdown", with the data now in hand further suggesting that the GLI first may have entered the ‘Slowdown’ phase back in July.
Via Goldman Sachs,
The September Final GLI came in at 2.6%yoy, a decline relative to the August reading. Momentum decreased to 0.15%mom relative to last month’s reading of 0.29%. Although the degree of deceleration remains quite modest, the September GLI print provides a clear signal of ‘Slowdown’, with the data now in hand further suggesting that the GLI first may have entered the ‘Slowdown’ phase back in July.
This comes after an initial August reading that still placed the GLI in ‘Expansion’, but very close to Slowdown, and after both the September and August Advanced GLI readings placed the cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase.
Red arrows show the revisions from last month...
Components mixed
Six of the ten underlying components of the GLI worsened in September. Three of last month’s four improving components came in softer.
The September Final GLI places the global industrial cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, which is defined by positive but decreasing momentum. This may be driven by some data coming in lower after fairly high prints in previous months, such as the Global PMI and NOIN. Along with the Advanced GLI readings in August and September, which located the GLI in ‘Slowdown’, this Final GLI reading comes in a broader context of stable and compressed growth, where small changes may lead to shifts in cycle phases.
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Again, my estimations of 2014 GDP done in January 2014:
ALL NEGATIVE
USA, -4%
JAPAN, -5%
EU, -6%
GERMANY, -2%
CANADA, -2%
CHINA, -8%
WORLD, -5%
Even Goldman is converging with me now
maybe the squid realized...
with ebola running around in the u.s.
(aka...the largest consumer base in the world...)
that MAYBE christmas shopping might be alittle...well..
SUBDUED!
its the final nail in our economy...
GAME OVER, BITCHEZ!
This could be the "Black Swan" that tanks the stock market, then the economy and then brings about the plans of the NWO. A virus is perfect:
1-Martial Law.(what better way to take away guns? Either the gun owner dies from ebola, or the guns are confiscated during quarantine)
2-Depopulation.
3-Suspend elections.
4-Economic Collapse.
5-Vaccine containing an embedded chip.
6-Localized blackouts, no cell phone or internet use.
7-Soften the country for a foreign invasion.
This makes for a great movie plot - but unfortunately it's all too real. Time to prepare now?
Gimme a break..
When SnP gets to 1700 I might get interested.
Oh, and the Liberian Texan Ebola Guy probably infected a bunch of kids that already had the "Mystery Virus".
..you just can't make this shit up.
Will Fed Head feel the Contractions ?
..how do you contract something that has no moisture?
The exciting part is that we have the
BLIND
leading the
STUPID !!
[and God save us from the CORRUPT ]
Never trust Goldman.
Never.
Baby Jesus never has trusted Goldman. When I look at the revisions on that chart I have to ask myself of what use it is. 6 months worth of revisions which essentially alter the entire meaning of the chart, all in the past 1 month period. Can I get an 'amen' here? There should in reality be very little revision in these charts or they are essentially worthless ...
Oh, wait, maybe THAT is the take away. Hmmm...
'time to prepare now?'
IT WASN'T RAINING WHEN NOAH BUILT HIS ARK!
and now the waters rising...
Where did you get that Noah quote?
I don't think that We the People will be having any taking away of guns.
As for their other actions, tell them Good Luck.
You got that right. Can you imagine the next day after the first day they start confiscating guns. Lord have mercy.
dunno ... still plenty of time for marketers to come up with hazmat chic ...
my daughter will have the one with princesses ...
Wow! This truth from an "entity" for whom lying is a systemic mainstay of its corporate culture. It must have have hurt to spit this out?
Not that I disagree, but this underscores my suspicion (and my prior posting) as to Why the CAD is getting whacked by the USD.
It went from $1.04 USD = 1.00 CAD two years ago in 2012, to $0.89 US = 1.00 CAD. WTF!? Is Canada and its CAD getting "embargoed" by Obummer, the way Russia and its RUB are?
bank of canada is controlling CAD
I think they are trying to keep it between 0.89 and 0.93 US
Poloz is trading HFT
UH OH.....that line is swingin' leftwards
Either it's heading for Recovery.....or Contraction. Any bets ?
Next stop: Contraction.
Mandy from CNBC has nice tits and she is bullish so that's good enough for me.
Lauren "Legs" Lyster was the best. And Erin Aid holds up quite well in the tits stakes.
I'll see yer pair and raise you a BIGGER pair... :>D
Tits? No, these are tits... (Danni Ashe FTW!!)
So are they buying the dip or we're not quite there yet?
Slow down? You don't say. I figured it would be hard to slow down much faster...
wow, singularities do exist
Ya would think PMs would be going up.....not much.....so i dont see to much of a rush to saftey yet....some of the bonds got it...but not PMs...they are in the dog house for some reason
I keep watching to see the PM vendors running out of items as these prices. I've seen none of that yet.
And I keep asking myself why?
Where's all the supply coming from?
What are the thoughts out there?
2011-like RESET in progress...will be interrupted by year-end window dressing then resume till spring when FED has another trick up its sleeve...EVERY SEVEN YEARS!!
so The Seven Year Itch ?
or Ebola Contractions.
My ass has been burning lately. I'm not sure if it's from the chicken wings or something way more sinister. Oh, sorry we were talking about the global depression weren't we?
Were the chicken wings sautéd in African semen?
Guess we'll find out in about 20 days. Well I'll find out, the press will keep it a secret from you.
Prolly just intestinal worms Doc.
A good wormer will clear you out like a dose of ebola.
Perhaps you bet wrong on the Baltic Dry Index, but perhaps you can make it up in the Baltic Gas Index. ;-)
Everybody buying a HazMat suit will ramp up global spending. BTFD.
Goldman Snakeoil are confirming what many of us knew already.
Construction spending (august) out this morning ... big miss
july saw substantial revision downwards (june too)
Q3 GDP estimates will take hit
Goldman is up to their eyeballs in junk bonds so now that that trillion dollar market is being vaporized they need YOU to "bail-in" their now long Treasury position. (Probably zero coupon 30 years.)
YES YOU! THESE THINGS ARE PRICED TO MOVE OR MY NAME AIN'T...
Seriously...1994 bitchez. The Feds just kept all the profits from Fannie and Fred so that says to me right there "phuck you Rhode Island."
If your a policeman or a fireman or a schoolteacher with a pension you might want to check out the status of your benefits provider here.
Of course you can always just say "but they're Goldman Sachs!" like everyone else in DC does.
It's deflation- you never buy Goddam Sucks's Swirlograms because they get cheaper every month.
If the Economy turns upside-down or inside-out....
Instead of Construction Spending estimates, it will be Contraction Spending estimates.
Who runs Barter Town ?
Running to treasuries does not solve the "problem" that there is infinity liquidity in the USA courtesy of the energy boom.
"Just not enough to bail out the trillion dollar man."
Forget "never throw good money after bad"...DO throw good money after good! This apposite reality is throwing the debt markets into total mayhem...and can be the only reason why the dollar is surging.
That Super Dollar is the financial equivalent of the guillotine.
And looks like we're in the year 1793 and this is Paris.
Looks to me like the economy is getting into the fetal position...
The Big 3
GM dealer inventory went from 72 days to 81
Chrysler dealer inventory went from 64 days to 71
Ford does not report dealer inventory
"sales" - in part - courtesy of channel stuffing
Now we know why utilties got bid up so hard the other day.
"The wire" is a two way street. You can send electricity back to the utility too. If you're trading electricity futures and suddenly a supplier comes online that is selling "the juice" for 90% less than retail...you the trader is the one that has the problem.
Coal prices have already collapsed. Rooftop solar combined with Teslas is the coup de grace.
This is great news for the economy of course as dirt cheap energy means your production costs of pretty much everything have just collapsed.
Or course there is the SLIGHT problem of "finding a customer."
Maybe the Government could rationalize their spending priorities...
weekly mortgage applications survey out this morning
purchase portion ... 0.0% week over week ... -11.0% year over year
despite a 6bps drop in 30yr conforming mortgage interest rate
Has the plunge protection team left early today?
About a year ago "and straight to pay off town!"
Plunger rubber dried and cracked.
Handle rotten.
Drain a mile wide.
Got no mo go go.
Warren Buffet on Squawk Box (CNBC) tomorrow to say how healthy this correction is and that it's all uphill from here.
Probably drop some hints about an Ebola pandemic being great for biotech stocks and reducing the surplus population.
Becky Quick - don't forget to wipe your lips and chin before you go on air, and check your hair too.
Obama works for Buffett and Buffett only.
Watch out Buffett derivatives..................
The Burgher King is hiring!
Good tip, those pesky early shots do seem to end up hair bound.
There are technical reasons that say he is right.
Wow! This truth from an "entity" for whom lying is a systemic mainstay of its corporate culture. It must have have hurt to spit this out?
How's Iceland doing?
Well enough for the blood suckers to return?
The Hallmarks of an Israeli Operation - Christopher BollynTell 'em to please come back. Ragnar Lothbrok will throw them the "Mother of all Welcome Parties".
"Ragnar Eagles" for all Money Changers.
Lets see a long term GLI chart to see if it's any good.
Needs a real-time app...to show the swirling down and around.
Someone can then read the GLI leafs in the graph.
Maybe a WB product ?
sticky.
Dow lost 1.4%
Nasdaq down too.
Roll on the meltdown
Terrific News!
QE-to-Infinity-and-Beyond!
Hmm The Baltic improved? It looks like it's 2009 all over again.
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Maybe we can get MICHELLE Obama to fix this mess . . .
Much of the economic landscape is beginning to look like something out of "Alice And The Looking Glass" A bizarre and unrecognizable land, a land that is distorted and papered over by ream after ream of paper. This paper has been rolling off the printing presses of central banks all across the world in an attempt to mask reality.
Peter Schiff says, printing money is to the economy what taking drugs is to a drug addict. In the short term it makes the economy feel good, but in the long run it is much worse off. What was once the "long run" or "distant future" may be getting much closer. More on what happens when the momentum ends in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-happens-after-momentum-ends_...