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Ray Dalio: "There Is Always A Downturn"
Thanks to The Federal Reserve's extreme monetary policy, "the prospective return of asset classes is very narrow," warns Bridgewater's Ray Dalio, with expected returns for equities of "only about 4 percent." This is a problem, he explains in this brief clip, as monetary policy relies on that transmission mechanism of apparent wealth creation to keep the dream alive. In Europe and Japan there is no "spread", Dalio notes, and in the US it is miniscule - which means monetary policy is practically ineffective. While he believes in the short-term, the US economy can maintain stability (not commenting on the market per se), his "biggest concern is when the next downturn comes in 1-2 years," the central bank must be on the 'tighter' side of market expectations to be capable of providing its life-giving elixir once again. Simply put, Dalio sums up "there is always a downturn" - something that no Wall Street economist is expecting.
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Duh.
If you're lucky your toilet will flush??
Meanwhile there is lasting value if you know where to look for it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JUOH9WFPOk
NIRP & Crypto's - Bitches!
Very timely post. The only mistake is that the downturn will not arrive in the next year. Seems like the S&P 500 just broke an importance trend channel. If super Mario cannot rescue de world tomorrow seems like le nouveu downturn c'est arrive!.
What's funny is guys like Dalio think the "downturn" that is coming next will be like the rest: containable.
This one won't be.
His timing isn't bad though; just misguided. We might see a 4-6% selloff before the end of the year. But then Fed to the rescue again, and we get to 18k. Then August 2015 comes around, when the debt ceiling becomes an issue again. Right into the 2016 POTUS election season. And just in time when Euro bonds finally start to crack.
Then the fun REALLY starts
"downturn/recession" has been put on the terrorist list. even suggesting this can get you imprisoned. afterall, the Fed has destroyed the naturally occuring business cycle so there is never another recession.
If you take out government guarantees, prop-ups and deficit spending, and the borrowing to fund it, the US has been in recession since 2000.
Tyler I think the title of this clip is not representative of what the clip is about. Anyway...This is why the fed is going to raise rates, It has nothing to do with the economy. It never did. They will raise rates for two reasons, because they need to, and because they can.
I know I know fuck off.....lol
I had a conversation with the CEO of a VC firm who was rather surprised that I thought he should suffer any real consequences should one of the companies he owns fucks up. He was genuinely shocked that someone of his "breeding" and "intellectual stock" should ever have to experience any sort of real consequences.
Yes, they really are this arrogant and they have the ear of your "representation" big time. this guy gets whatever "legislation" he wants.
shemittah..........look it up.
As a farmer I don't have to, but do you have a point or just trolling?
the point is the biggest reason this market is gonna tank is its a shemittah year, as was 2001 and 2008 which saw market crashes (of course with other huge causes as well). on 9/13/15 You'll probably see another 700 pt down day.
"Peak Arrogance"....
As Past is Prologue....
Coming Soon to a Balance Sheet near you.....
Who cares about domestic spreads when favorable exchange rates makes the carry trades so attractive? I smell a sandwich in my future.
When did you turn into Max Fischer?
Civis Noondy?
Do you disagree with my post and my point to Tyler?
I disagree with giving Dalio the time of day much less any sort of extra time on air or in print so I think both you and Tyler are a little fucked in the head. Him for bothering to post this tripe and you for thinking it is anything more than marketing.
That and your faux concern made me think of Max.
If you think me and Tyler are a little fucked in the head then fwiw that at least shows you are pretty balanced. An asshole...but balanced.
I find it funny that the two of you can use the same clip to support two completely different interpretations.
" I think the title of this clip is not representative of what the clip is about."
I think it was a simple statement. If anyone disagreed I was all ears. Does not sound like you did. If Tyler spun a pust into marketing clickbait then he should have no problem getting called on it, seeing he does it all day long to other news sources.
There's a "downturn" every morning when I "unwind" my "morning wood."
It's more fun if you actually make air quotes when you read it.
Duh...
yes Mr. Dalio the "let the majority eat cake" monetary experiment continues...
"full faith and credit" and all that...
potential oil margin call soon
again, such optimism. A little early to start drinking don't you thnk?
:-)
I am naturally unalcoholic
Drink very little, maybe 20 bears and 2 bottles of wine per ....YEAR
you should drink more it will even you out.
look at the brightside, at least the FOMC figured a way to create more jobs:
Fed to publish new U.S. labor market index monthly starting October 6
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/us-usa-fed-labor-idUSKCN0HQ4H620141001
So when the next downturn comes - is the answer going to be bailouts and QE again?
Fucking neo-Keynesians. They are today's phrenologists.
Yes. That will be the answer. Give more money to bankers is always the answer.
full. of. crap.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
Worth watching.
I am trying to picture our economy dealing with both an interest rate rise and an Ebola spread. Frankly I can't see the two co-existing. One of the two must go. Either the eonomy or Ebola must disappear.
Interest rate rise...... Lol.
I'm watching CNBC for the first time in about a year and the useful idiots all keep saying the Fed must raise rates and rates are going up, blah, blah, blah.... Maybe rates will rise in some parallel universe, but not on this planet any time soon. It makes no sense.
This is exactly what Yellen is waiting. President Obama can tell everyone to stay home and Yellen will debit your account. Yellen can levitate the economy. This is just the next stage of QE. Well, QE worked.
It is all BULLSHIT!
Arrest him. Redistribute his ill-gotten wealth.
Let him suffer the consequences of his own management/decisions...
Regardless of the "wealth", this would be a refreshing change.
But I digress, there is no market, and it's good to be in the club.
QE can pump it up. QE cannot keep it up. That is the lesson of Japan's repeated QE stock market pump and dumps.
Exactly....
No one gonna catch falling razor sharp broad sword this time.
Looks more like a mile high guillotine.
don't be such a debbie downer
All these wankers putting out the negative possibles, so they can say "As we predicted...."
shemittah....look it up.
A downturn? No one was saying that 2 weeks ago, the Blowhorn was just spouting markets can never go down ever and anyone not in fully leveraged had missed out.
Simply put : there is always a downturn...says the big man of HF shadow banking.
However, this remark is also a reminder for those who have been saying, since 2009, that the inevitable collapse is "just around the corner"...
This guy Dalio, like all the others, including Bill Gates and King Berkshire Hathaway, have never made so much money since the doomers said in 2009 : this cannot be, therefore this cannot last. The end is nigh.
Alas, it has and now five years and 10 score days along, since March 2009 when the market hit rock bottom, it has to be admitted these guys "have never had it so good".
inspite of what the doomers and PM hoarders said then.
So...the big man can now say : Life is a cycle and there will always be a down... after such a long drawn up for the fiat kings !
Funny at the end he says Janet Yellen is doing the right thing.
I think this is his way of saying you created a major bubble and you are in big trouble
Ray needs to keep the comments simple & 15 seconds or less in length. Producer yelling in Becky's ear - cut him off, cut him off! Dalio way smarter than me, but I think he is guilty of linear thinking.... everything stays the same for 2 years. maybe...
Are there any firm mathematical limits to how far they can push this? The debt doubled from 4T to 8T and while that felt like a iminent game-changing top it went and doubled again. Is there a hard math reason why they can't double QE? Is there a math reason why the Fed's balance sheet cannot double from here? WIth other 3 CBs doing it it seems to provide balance. Are there ANY mathematical certainties regardless of how far off they may be? Some talk of interest rates being a hard roadblock
If they were to disclose the swaps and other stuff such as marking their trash to market, it would be EOW.